787 Production Slow Down (or stoppage) at Everett?

UPDATE (9/20/2017; 11:35PM): Matt Cawby just informed me that it appears that a 787 should roll out of 40-26 in the next few hours.  Prior to this roll out, Everett was assembling a 787 in 16 days.  This next aircraft (ZB220) took 22 days to assemble and thus still begs the questions as to why the assembly time has gone up from 16 days to 22 days? Additionally, Matt Cawby reported that ZB220 and the airplane that rolled out before that one (ZB276) didn't have their engines fitted thus I wonder if the hold up is due to Rolls Royce?

For the past few days I've noticed that Everett hasn't rolled out a Dreamliner since September 9th when ZB276 (LN 621, ET-AUO) a 787-9 was rolled out of the 40-26 building where the 787s are assembled.  Thus far in September, Boeing has rolled out 2 787s and started assembly on another 2 aircraft.

I don't know the reason why there has not been any further unloading (roll outs) of the 787s from the last assembly position 4 at Everett but the fact that Charleston is still turning out 787s on a regular basis does suggest that the reason doesn't seem to be related to design or assembly of the airplane in general though I wouldn't discount an assembly SNAFU on one or more of the airplanes currently in 40-26.

Typically, at Everett, once the 787 has completed work in position 4 it is rolled out to the 40-51 ramp where minor assembly tasks are completed.  The airplane then usually goes to the paint hangar or the fuel dock depending on the availability of the paint hangar.  It then follows the normal Boeing pre-flight ground testing followed by the flight tests and delivery.  According to Chris Edwards, a spotter at Everett, there hasn't been any 787 movements out of building 40-26 and confirmed that ZB220 (LN 623, HS-TWB), the next 787 to roll out is still inside.  Chris also noted that it took about 2 weeks to paint QANTAS' first 787-9 which is a long time for a livery as simple as QANTAS'.  There is a very small chance that the airplanes that were the next to roll out went straight the paint hangar but it would mean that Boeing would have had to complete all assembly tasks inside including minor ones and then roll it out.  I doubt that this has happened.

I'll keep watching this situation as report as circumstances warrant but it is too early to determine if this is a major issue and what, if any, impact this will have to the 787 delivery schedule.

Boeing to roll out 300th 787 built tonight

Very late tonight (around 9PM local) in Everett, Boeing will roll out the 300th 787 built since the production of the 787 began in 2007.  The aircraft is ZB536 (LN 303, VN-A861) a 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines.  Boeing started final assembly of this aircraft on March 6th and it took 33 days for it to go through final assembly.  It will be parked for a week or so on the 40-51 ramp undergoing minor assembly tasks after which it should go to the flightline or paint.  This is an important milestone to have reached for Boeing.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Production Looks to be improving

Analysis of 787 final assembly trends at Boeing's Everett plant seems to point to an improvement in the amount of traveled work that is reaching Everett.  Looking at the movements of recently completed 787s at Everett, I've noticed that, with the exceptions of 787s for Etihad and American Airlines, Boeing hasn't been sending rolled out 787s to the Everett Modification Center to finish assembly tasks that were delayed due to traveled work.

The last current production 787 that visited the EMC was ZA199 (LN 271, JA840J) for Japan Airlines which was there until early February.  Since then there have been 6 787s that have been rolled out to the 40-51 ramp but none have made the trip to the EMC though some have spent some time on the ramp outside the 40-51 building to finish minor assembly activities.  Currently, the only 787s that are at the EMC are 3 early build aircraft, the 3 787-9 flight test aircraft and one 787-8 for American Airlines.

With regards to American Airlines and Etihad, it seems that for the aircraft for those two carriers will continue to go to the EMC because of delays in delivering the premium seats from Zodiac until the production issues are smoothed out.  This is pretty good news for the 787 in terms of the production costs which Boeing has been wrestling with since the start of production.  It does not mean the end of traveled work as Boeing expects that to continue.  Many aircraft programs have some amount of traveled work but the 787 issues have been very painful, very public and very plentiful.  They will continue to have some amount of traveled work but it will eventually get to a point where the work can be completed in final assembly as opposed to being rolled out to the 40-51 ramp to be finished.

As always, I'll keep track of this trend but continued reduction of traveled work to a point where the airplanes no longer have to go to the EMC is very good news to the program.

Updated 787 delivery info for July and August

There is new updated delivery information from a variety of sources concerning future deliveries of the 787.  First off, ANA apparently has taken delivery of another 787 probably yesterday.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) was delivered and should fly to Japan tonight.  Apparently that looks to be the only delivery being made this month. However there is more clarity on future deliveries including those to Air India.
Air India - Ajit Singh, the Minister of Civil Aviation, reported that the GoI's CCEA should be taking up the matter of the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing in about 15 days. Now how soon after approval will these airplanes be delivered is another question.  According to a posting on airliners.net, the carrier can take delivery of four '87s before August 5th from the flightline at Charleston.  This is a rumor and there is nothing official to back it up as of yet.  We just have to stay tuned for this drama to play out.

LAN - The first aircraft for LAN has now been moved to the flightline and will presumably be starting the pre-flight testing prior to its B1 flight.  There has been some confusion as to when LAN will take this airplane but now there seems to be some clarification.  The CEO of LAN told Flightglobal that the carrier will take delivery in September.

ANA - ANA's 787 fleet is well into double digits with several more on the way.  There are 4 787s that are winding its way through pre-flight at Everett.  According to a posting in airliners.net, ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be making it's B1 flight tomorrow (July 18). This airplane is projected (of course not certain) to deliver around August 8th.  The three other 787s are all airplanes that didn't need any re-work done at the EMC.   It is quite possible that all these four airplanes can deliver in August though it's more likely that a couple will deliver in August and a couple more in September from this batch.  There are still 2 more late build airplanes that are in storage that wold have to finish some amount of change incorporation and I would expect that these airplanes will be delivered later this fall. a, ZA118 is registered as JA813A (LN 67).

Finally, here's an interesting article that sums up Farnborough 2012 air show from aerospace analyst Saj Ahmad.

Are 787 deliveries slowing down?

UPDATE: I got word that Qatar's first 787 will be delivered in August but it's still open as to when in August.  Given that at Everett there are only three 787s that have had their B-1 flight thus far (ANA, Qatar, & Ethiopian), I'm going to say that only one 787 will be delivered this month.  There hasn't been any word on other 787s that will have their B-1 flight but I expect that at least 2 more will take to the skies for the B-1 flight before the end of July in order to be delivered next month (ZA100 and ZA135).

There has been raised hopes and expectations that aviation geeks around the world would see an avalanche of 787 deliveries starting this summer.  However we've seen only a trickle and I am at a loss to explain it. The Everett ramp is getting full of 787s that have either finished change incorporation or are airframes that do not need to go through the EMC but just have a few hundred small jobs left to be done.  As successive airplanes come out of 40-26 the number of jobs that remain have fallen to less than 150 with ZA182 (LN 70) for JAL.  This aircraft has yet to appear on the Everett flightline though it has been more than 9 days per line move on July 3, about 12 days ago.  We may yet see ZA182 as early as tomorrow or Monday. 

In terms of getting these planes ready for delivery, while the monster jobs of change incorporation have been completed on those airplanes, there is still a long line for delivery as these planes must go through the step by step process of pre-flight ground test, Boeing flight tests, customer flight tests as well as customer inspections and quality control reviews.  It appears that there doesn't seem to be enough resources to tackle all this work for the 8-9 aircraft that are lined up ready for their turn.  Both ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) and ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) were expected to be delivered this month to ANA. It's looking like on ZA508 will make it and there is rumors of extra work needed to prepare ZA100 for flight.  This is the aircraft that needed the most rework as it was the first production standard 787 to enter final assembly.  It is not known when this airplane is to finally take to the air.

In the meanwhile the first 787 for LAN, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) is now on the 40-51 ramp after being painted and is presumably finishing up some assembly tasks.  There is some controversy about when it is to be delivered. with some reports saying delivery is in August but LAN is saying that they expect to take delivery of its first 787 late this year.  Right next to is a 787 for ANA registered JA813A.  This is registration that was assigned to ZA510 (LN 59) and previously I had it listed as in storage and not undergoing any change modification.  I doubt that this airplane could have prepared to quickly though it is possible that this airplane may certainly have had some work completed while outside the EMC and it engines attached. I'm trying to find out the true identity of this airplane beyond the registration.  There are some late build 787, notably ZA118 (LN 67, JA816A) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA817A) that have "gone missing."  I'm assuming that these airplanes, if one of them is not the ANA 787 that currently is sitting on the 40-51 ramp, are in the paint hangar.

Lastly, it is quite possible that ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian and ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways could be ready for delivery by the end of this month.  The former has conduct two Boeing test flights (including the ferry flight to Ft worth) and is currently being painted in Texas. I would expect this airplane back in Everett in about 7 to 8 days. It could could still conceivably conduct customer flights after its return to Everett before the end of the month.  ZA461 is more of a question mark as Boeing needs to complete some interior assembly tasks (may be related to the IFE System) prior to further Boeing and customer test flights.  Again it is entirely possible that his airplane could deliver by the end of this month.

Don't even ask me about Air India.

First 787 for LAN painted and on the flightline

Everett photographer Matt Cawby got a stunning photo of LAN's first 787 ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) out on the 40-51 ramp after being painted.  The aircraft though reported by CAPA to be delivered in November is supposed to be delivered in August.  I expect that LAN should have at least two more 787s delivered by the end of this year.

The mystery of 787 number 66 part deux

Well there seems to be a little bit more clarity on ZA135 (LN 66) and whether this airplane is in for storage or if it is being prepared for delivery.  Yesterday the a picture by Moonm showed ZA135 (LN 66) with engines hanging but with all the windows and doors sealed.  There was considerable debate what this meant and if it was a sign that this airplane still had to go through change incorporation.  Today local Everett photographer Matt Cawby flew around Paine Field and some of his photos showed ZA135 being worked on outside building 40-51.  Of particular interest is that this airplane now has some of the window and door seals removed.  The window masking is still on (presumably in preparation for painting).  This is a good sign that Boeing intends to move this airplane into the standard pre-delivery work and test flights.  Another less obvious sign is that Boeing moved one 787 from one flightline stall to another. ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern went from stall 102 to stall 201.  Stalls 101 to 109 have been used by Boeing to prepare 787s for delivery. It's conceivable that stall 102 is where ZA135 will be parked as it is prepared for delivery.  Lastly, Matt's photos shows the wheels of the airplane uncovered as opposed to those that are being stored around Paine Field.  This indicates that Boeing will be moving the airplane from its current spot soon.  Where to is another question. The next movement of this airplane will give a more clear indication of the future of this airplane and whether Boeing has indeed turned the corner in 787 production.  It is very, very close.

The mystery of 787 number 66

Well a partial mystery.  In an earlier post, I revealed that ZA135 (LN 66) was pulled out of the final assembly line in building 40-26  and out onto the apron in front of Boeing's final assembly hall.  At the time I wasn't sure if it had engines attached or if the airplane was buttoned up.  Thanks to a spotter in the Everett area the airplane is buttoned up (windows and doors are covered up and sealed). However it does have the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 hanging from the wings. Boeing has not equipped 787s with engines until they are ready to be delivered.  However, the airplanes are sealed if they are going to spend time in storage until it has to go through change incorporation.  It seems that there is a mixed message with this airplane.  Perhaps it is ready to go straight to the flightline for the standard pre-delivery work including painting but Boeing needs to deliver the other 787s that are on the verge of delivery.  There are 4 787s that are being readied for delivery to ANA along with one for Qatar and two for Air India.  Perhaps there is a small amount of work that needs to be done on this airplane and then it can go straight into pre-delivery?  I suspect the answer is something in between.  Where this airplane goes will be the next clue as to the state of the 787 program.  If there is still work to be done and it has an extended stay on the Boeing tarmac, that is not good at least in the short term and the expectation that Boeing has turned the corner on the program would be severely damaged.  If however the plane is able to take flight before the end of the month then it's not an issue and Boeing would have truly turned a corner.