March production and delivery schedule for 787

With the 1st two months of the year in the books, Boeing is looking to finish out the 1st quarter in strong fashion.

Delivery wise, Boeing is hoping to deliver 11 787s. Some planned notable deliveries include early build 787-8s to Ethiopian and to a yet to be determine customer who is buying the air frame once bought by Crystal Cruises.  I must stress the deliveries are tentative as we have seen in the past that sometime they just don't occur.  ZD007 (LN 16, ET-ATH) was supposed to be delivered at the end of February and now it is scheduled to be delivered at the end of March.  ZD009 (LN 17) was going to be taken up by Crystal Cruises until they found out it was too small for their use.  They may have found a buyer but it is still unknown who or even if there is a new buyer.

The UAE government will be taking its second 787 and first 787-9 for Presidential/VIP duties in March. Other than that it will be a ho hum affair with deliveries to usual suspects like Saudi Arabian (2), Avianca (1), American (1), JAL (1), Air Canada (1), Virgin Atlantic (1) and Norwegian (1).  Six of the eleven have had their B-1 and one 787-8 (for Avianca) has had it customer flights.  The remaining 5 should have their first flight by March 15th.  Most deliveries (9 of 11) should occur in the second half of the month. Deliveries in March will heavily favor Everett as they should deliver 8 787 while Charleston will deliver 3.  This is due to the introduction of the 787-10 into final assembly thus mandating the need to have some production frames moved to Everett so as not to disrupt assembly of customer aircraft.

Production for the first half of March should see 6 787s start final assembly with another 6 rolling out by mid March.

Lastly, I'm hearing that the 787-10 should make its maiden flight by the end of the month.  March 31st is penciled in for the first flight date but I'll you all know as soon as I can get more clarity on this date.

787 Tables

787-10 progresses through final assembly

Boeing Photo

Boeing is handing some great shots of the 787-10 lately.  Now is a photo of the first aircraft, ZC001 (LN528, N528ZC) in position 2 in building 88-30.  This really shows off the enormous size of the 787-10 to great effect compared to the -9 and -8 that are in the other assembly positions in the background.  I expect that this -10 will now be getting it's landing gear in this position and will probably stay there until after the Holidays as Boeing will shut down for the remainder of the year starting Dec. 23rd.

In the "Where's ZB813" segment, we can see that the formally damaged 787-9 for Xiamen is still inside 88-30 in the upper left corner of the photo.  However it look complete with engines and all wing/body fairings are on so that's a good sign.  It might be ready to roll out of the factory any day now.

I'm still awaiting confirmation that ZA674 (LN 513, N793AV) has been contractually delivered to Avianca as the 500th 787 delivered.  Stranger still is no word from Boeing on this important milestone. You'd think that delivering 500 787s five and quarter years after first delivery would be an achievement that Boeing's PR would be crowing about.  Yet nothing.  Stay tuned....

First 787-10 completes wing-body join, Boeing delivers 499th 787

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo

Boeing released a couple of photos showing ZC001 (LN 528) in final assembly position 1 which is the wing-body join area.  In it we get a pretty good look at the size of the 787-10 compared to the AA 787-9 next to it.  By now this aircraft should be in position 2 where it should get its landing gear.

Notice in the second picture the Xiamen Airlines 787-9 (ZB813, LN 512) is still inside 88-30 but now it has it engines. It seems that this aircraft probably took a little longer to repair.

Today Boeing delivered the 499th 787 to Air Europa. ZA885 (LN 508, EC-MMY) is the second 787-8 to be delivered.  I expect Boeing to deliver Dreamliner #500 on Dec. 20th to Avianca.

Trent 1000 TEN flies on 787 as Boeing deliveries now stand at 495

For the first time a Rolls Royce Trent 1000 TEN (thrust, efficiency and new technology) flew on a 787 that it is meant to power.  The 4th 787-8 flight test aircraft ZA004 (LN 004, N7874) flew with the engine for the first time today.  The newest member of the Trent 1000 family is to make up for performance shortfalls in the earlier Trent 1000 engines and is meant to power all three 787 variants with a thrust of up to 78,000 lbs.  According to Rolls Royce, the Trent 1000 TEN "offers proven new technology; its features include a new compressor system scaled from the Trent XWB engine program and a new turbine design to allow extra thrust. Unique to the TEN is a modulated air system which optimizes the secondary air flow within the engine using a valve system with no moving parts, a robust system that delivers performance benefits. External systems have also been improved and re-designed."

The engine should be certified for use on the 787-10 before the types first flight early next year.  Speaking of the 787-10, While parts for the first aircraft are in position 0 in Charleston, it won't start final assembly in position 1 until Dec. 13th, next Tuesday.  Other parts are en-route to Charleston, namely the section 41 forward fuselage.

Lastly, there was a flurry of 787 deliveries yesterday as Boeing delivered 4 787-9s to customers including British Airways, Hainan Airlines, Aeromexico and Xiamen Airlines which picked up it's 1st of 6 787-9 on order.  Boeing has delivered 6 787s this month so far, 132 this year and 495 since program deliveries began.  ZA674 (LN 513, N793AV) for Avianca is to be delivered on Dec. 20th and will be the 500th 787 delivered to a customer.  This will also be the last delivery in 2016 for Boeing which should end the year with 137 787 deliveries - 35 787-8 and 102 787-9s will have been delivered.  Of the remaining 5 787s to be delivered, 3 have had their customer flight and the other 2 will have their C-1 flights next Tuesday, Dec. 13th.  I expect Boeing to shut down for the holidays around Dec. 23rd.

Boeing exceeds 2015 787 delivery forecast by delivering 14 787 in November. Aims for 9 to 10 deliveries in December

November 2015 results

Boeing had a pretty good delivery month for the 787 as they delivered 14 aircraft: 6 787-8 and 8 787-9.  As of November 30th, Boeing has delivered 126 787s: 68 787-8 and 58 787-9s thus exceeding its 787 delivery guidance for 2015.  Total program deliveries stand at 354 as of November 30, 2015. The 14 787s delivered included customers such as KLM's 1st 787-9, 2 airplanes each for Qatar (787-8) and British Airways (787-9) and 3 787-9s for United.

November also saw the firming of Eva Airway's order for 18 787-10 (+6 options) which is a major boost for that model.  Thus far Boeing has booked 97 gross orders for the 787, 71 net orders. Ethiopian also has said that they have ordered 2 787-9s for 2017 delivery though those airplanes have not showed up on Boeing's order and delivery site.

787-10 Rendering Courtesy of The Boeing Company

Speaking of the 787-10, Boeing announce that they have completed the detailed design of the 787-10 which is a simple stretch of the 787-9.  The two aircraft will be 95% common thus making the aircraft a low risk proposition.  Expect final assembly to start in a years time followed by first flight in the late 1st quarter or early 2nd quarter of 2017 and delivery in 2018.  Boeing is expected to have 3 test airplanes all of which will be re-worked and delivered to customers in 2018.


December Delivery and Production

As Boeing heads into the last few weeks of 2015, it appears that they are aiming to get their remaining deliveries for the 787 completed by December 23rd.  According to the current delivery schedule, Boeing will deliver 7 787s (2 have already been delivered as of Dec. 11th) between Dec. 15th and Dec. 23.  Deliveries include 2 787-9 to Virgin as well as 787-9s to Vietnam Airlines, LAN, and Air Canada.  American and Scoot will each get one 787-8.  Boeing has already delivered a 787-8 to Avianca and a 787-9 to KLM.

Boeing has rolled out 116 787 though the end of November and started final assembly on 115 thus putting them on track to exceed the 10/month production rate.  Through Dec. 11th, Boeing has rolled out 121 787s and started final assembly on 119 Dreamliners.  I believe that we should see a tapering of production activities just prior to Christmas that will last until just after New Years.

Moving Re-Work and Change Incorporation Activities?

So according to sources but as of yet unconfirmed, Boeing will not be sending anymore 787 to the EMC to finish re-work prior to delivery.  That work will now take place in a couple different locations around Everett including 40-24 final assembly and the two spots behind the Everett Delivery Center (stalls 114 and 115).

The reason for this switch is to allow Boeing to concentrate on recovering the KC-46A tanker program which has fallen behind schedule much like the 787 had done during it's early gestation period.  It appears that Boeing will send KC-46As to the EMC to finish work and to try and recover the schedule will maintaining the test flight program which is currently on going.

Boeing has 11 early build 787-8s that need to be re-worked to certification standards.  8 of those 11 airplanes have customers assigned to them as of today but have delivery dates stretching out to 2018.

The relocation of the 787 re-work raises questions that I frankly don't have the answers to such as:
1) Will the relocation to 40-24 delay the start final assembly of early 777X or will it interfere in the reconfiguration work that will needed to be done in order to support early 777X final assembly?
2) What work will take place inside 40-24 as oppose to the outdoor stalls 114 and 115?
3) Will the relocation of these activities slow down the rate of completed re-worked 787s?
4) Will this change necessitate the continued use of the runway storage area at Paine Field?

Clearly since there is a plan for most of the remaining early build airplanes (we must not forget that 3 787-10 test airplanes will have to also be re-worked in 2018), Boeing is now planning to free up facilities for 777X and KC-46A work as work on the early build 787s will start to wind down.


787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries
2016 Projected Operator Deliveries
2016 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 2014 Year End Report - Boeing finishes 2014 with 114 787 deliveries

Boeing finished 2014 with a typical December delivery rush including handing over 18 787s during December 2014.  This is a new 787 delivery record which surpasses 15 787 that was delivered in June of this year in order to make mid year delivery goals.

Here are the 787 numbers thus far:

228 - the total number of 787 that have been delivered to customers since deliveries began in 2011
114 - the total number of 787s delivered in 2014
35 - the total number of 787s delivered in the 4th quarter
18 - the total number of 787s delivered in December, 2014
118 - the total number of 787s that started final assembly in 2014
120 - the total number of 787s rolled out the 2 787 assembly halls
10 - the total number of 787-9s delivered in 2014
104 - the total number of 787-8s delivered in 2014
1.05 - the efficiency of the 787 production system in 2014 (the number should be below 1 to indicate an efficient production system)
0.97 - the efficiency of the North Charleston final assembly
1.09 - the efficiency of the Everett final assembly (includes both the main Everett and surge lines).

Boeing overall did well on the 787 program in 2014 though it does remain to be seen how they've been able to handle deferred production costs. Boeing did exceed their guidance by 4 aircraft though they were planning to deliver 120 787s in 2014.  Several had to be deferred to 2015 for various reasons including the lack of seats for completed aircraft. The fact that the production efficiency is above 1 indicates that the the production system is still not stable.  The difficulties that with traveled work and the need to re-hire temporary workers in North Charleston highlighted the ongoing production system issues that continue to plague the 787 program.  Even now aircraft that have finished final assembly are still worked on to complete assembly tasks.

Still Boeing was able to flawlessly execute on the 787-9, as well as get the production rate up to 10/month despite issues coming out of the North Charleston campus with traveled work.  Deferred production cost has increased to over $25bn as Boeing stockpiled parts to mitigate shortages and reduce traveled work.

787s were delivered to first time new operators including:

Air Canada
Air New Zealand
Arke
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian
Thai Airways International
Virgin Atlantic
Xiamen

Plus new BBJ owners

December's delivery count was unusually large due to the delayed delivery of several 787s to Avianca (4) and Azerbaijan Airlines (2).  Earlier this year I was projecting that Boeing would deliver 120 787s.  Several were deferred due to delays with seats as well as knock on effects from previous delays.  Notably American Airlines and Scoot were to receive their first 787s in 2014 are now expected to receive them in 2015.  One early build 787 for Korean Airlines (VIP) was ready for delivery in 2014 but is now taped and sealed at the Everett Modification Center.  The fact that this aircraft is not being worked on and is sealed indicates that there is an unknown issue(s) holding up delivery to Korean Airlines.  This aircraft is to be used as a government VIP aircraft and it is possible the delay can be attributed to the finished interior that is to be installed in the aircraft including classified military gear though this is speculation on my part.

Boeing has set it self up for a 2015 rather well but issues still remain including deferred production cost and continued traveled work.  If they are able to over come these issues then we should see a high number of 787 deliveries in 2015 compared to 2014.

Stay tuned for my 787 2015 look ahead which will be out soon.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

Boeing delivers first 787 to Avianca....finally

Update from my earlier post.   Avianca has finally taken possession of its first 787 yesterday.  The aircraft ZA665 (LN 217, N780AV) was reported at the Everett Delivery Center by sources. This indicates that the aircraft is due to depart from Everett soon.

This aircraft had a very long gestation period at Everett spending over 6 months from the start of final assembly to delivery at Everett.  It is suspected that there were seat issues but also financing issues that held up delivery.  Avianca is expected to take three more 787s before the end of the month.

Seats and Financing - hold ups to 787 deliveries in December

Boeing's aggressive 787 delivery schedule is being threatened by two issues: availability of BFE (buyer furnished equipment) namely the premium seats from Zodiac but more importantly the ability of certain airlines to fund the final payment to Boeing upon delivery.  Most of the aircraft's purchase price is paid upon delivery.  The seat issue has already shifted several deliveries into January.

For some carriers with less than stellar cashflow, obtaining the financing to fund this final payment has been tough.  In particular Avianca and Azerbaijan Airlines have had aircraft that are all set to deliver yet are still sitting on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.  The delivery dates have been repeatedly moved to the right and there hasn't been any further test flights nor any need for further test flights unless the delays take much longer at which point Boeing would have to fly a FCF (functional check flight) to make sure that the aircraft and it's systems still all check out.

Avianca has 4 787s on the flightline with 3 ready to be delivered.  Azerbaijan has both 787s that they ordered ready to be delivered as well.  The delays have been driven by the customers and not Boeing yet represents 6 aircraft that could be added to their year end and month end revenue totals.  Boeing is trying to keep the delivery schedule for these 6 airplanes in December and it does appear that they have time especially since the issues doesn't appear to be technical.

787 December Mid Month Report

It's already December 15th and thus far I can confirm that Boeing has delivered 5 787s thus far but I am waiting on confirmation on 3 additional deliveries to Avianca (2) and Azerbaijan Airlines (1) that are scheduled to be completed by the end of today.  With the 5 deliveries in December (thus far), Boeing has delivered 101 787s in 2014 and need 9 more to achieve their guidance of 110 deliveries.  They do have plenty of aircraft that appear to be ready to be handed over to customer as additional customer flights have taken place over the last few days.

the delayed deliveries of many of these aircraft have been attributable to different reasons including:

Delay seat deliveries from seat vendors (i.e. Zodiac) or delays in certifying the seats for installations Avianca, Etihad, American Air).  Bloomberg has an excellent article on the delays attributable to Zodiac

Financing issues (Azerbaijan Airlines).

Despite the trouble with deliveries, Boeing has still being going full tilt on production and my season adjusted calculations show that Boeing will start work on 8 787s in December while rolling out 9 from final assembly.

Lastly, the plane spotters in Abu Dhabi will get a special treat as Etihad's 1st 787-9 ZB077 (LN 229, A6-BLA) will fly to the country today, December 15th for a marketing trip.  It'll be there until the 18th and then fly back to Everett.  This aircraft still has not been delivered and has yet to take a customer flight though I don't know if the flight to Abu Dhabi wold count as a customer flight.  Boeing is still aiming to deliver this aircraft to Etihad on Dec. 31st.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing falls short on November 787 deliveries, off to a slow start in December

Last month Boeing delivered an anemic number of 787s despite the growing backlog of aircraft at both Everett and North Charleston.  By the end of November, Boeing had delivered 96 787s for 2014 and needs to deliver a further 14 aircraft by the end of December in order to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries for the year. The delays have pushed aircraft that were to be delivered in November to December yet almost 1/3 of the way through December Boeing has delivered only 1 787. 

According to the latest information (which changes more often than I can keep track), Boeing is looking to deliver 18 more 787s this month in addition to the 1 that has already been delivered to Air New Zealand.  I do believe that this number will eventually be trimmed down to 14 if not fewer.  Several aircraft have not had their B-1 flight as of yet despite having delivery dates later this month.  Several might also be pushed in January due to issues with customer supplied interiors and financing among other issues.  Other sources of delays maybe driven by weather conditions (B-1 flights have weather restrictions placed on them for safety sake) as well as the upcoming Holidays.  Boeing had delivered 15 787s in June of this year so it is entirely possible for them to crank out this number and I do think they can deliver 110 for the year but they do need to pick up the pace.  There are several 787s that were scheduled for delivery in December but those aircraft have already slipped into January, among them the first 787s for American Airlines and Scoot.

Among the candidates that expect deliveries this month are:

Aeromexico - 1

Air India - 1

ANA - 1

Avianca - 4 (787s that were delayed for yet unknown reasons but suspected to be interior furnishings)

Azerbaijan Airlines - 2 (rumored to have financing issues to complete the purchase, any one have any spare nickels and dimes to lend to them?)

Etihad - 1 (rumored to be delivered in January)

Japan Airlines - 2

Korean Air - 1 (terrible teen aircraft LN 11 for VIP transport but still needs to do a B-1)

Royal Air Maroc - 1 (still need to fly a B-1)

Thai - 1

TUI Travel (Arke) - 1

United Airlines - 1 (last 787-8 for UA)

Virgin Atlantic Airways - 1 (787-9, still needs to do a B-1)


A full year end review will be written up soon after the New Year followed by a 2015 Look Ahead.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing looks to deliver fewer than 10 787s in November

With November more than half over Boeing has recorded only 1 delivery of a 787 this month but more troubling is the continuous shifting of the delivery schedule to the right setting up what may be a very un-happy holiday season for the Boeing workers who would have to put in overtime to get these aircraft completed, tested and delivered.

Boeing can deliver 8 more aircraft this month but one of them, a 787-9 for Air New Zealand, hasn't had its first flight yet and is tentatively scheduled to be delivered around Nov. 24th.  It appears that this aircraft may fall into the December delivery time frame thus I see Boeing only delivering only a total of 8 787s this month.

Notably there are 4 787s for Avianca all of who are ready for delivery or are close to being ready for delivery but these deliveries are now not scheduled to start until December due to some unspecified issue.  Rumor has it that the 1st class seats are not FAA certified though I doubt that as all the customer supplied options such as seats come from the Boeing catalog which are FAA certified.

Also many of the 787s have yet to take their first customer flights and that schedule is also slipping to the right.

This can leave a large number of 787s hanging around Everett (not so much Charleston due to the low production output) as the Holidays come up.  This can serve to continue to increase Boeing's deferred production costs well past the $25.2bn mark as Boeing will have to pay a tremendous amount of over time to catch up in December.  If Boeing only delivers 8 total 787s in November, their YTD total would be 98 and 12 short of their goal of 110.  It is certainly possible for them to deliver 12 787s in one month; they demonstrated they can deliver a significant number of 787s in 1 month but it will come at a cost.

Additionally, they have undertaken very few B-1 flights for aircraft that are due to be delivered in December and there a re still a number of 787s that are at the EMC or on the 40-51 ramp that are finishing up traveled work.

All the while production continues at the 10/month pace though with continued traveled work issues.  Thus far they've rolled out 4 787s with a 5th due to roll out on Sunday night and they've started final assembly on 5 other air frames.  Clearly the backlog in increasing so much that Boeing will be sending 787s to Charleston for final delivery as the ramp space at Everett is shrinking.

It is plainly obvious that Boeing production issues on the 787 are far from over and I do think the only way for them to be resolved is to through more resources and money now before the issues continue to snowball.

We'll see for December brings but right now I  think it's safe to say that Boeing 787 deliveries for this month will be terrible at best.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 Mid Month Report - October, 2014

With 10 days left in the month, Boeing seems to be struggling to get production airplanes into the air for testing prior to delivery by the end of this month.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 5 787s this month but I do expect 1 more to deliver by the end of this week.  With those deliveries Boeing will hit 199 deliveries and I believe the 200th delivery will go to Qatar Airways when ZA475 (LN 207, A7-BCP) is delivered to the carrier around October 27.  Boeing is trying to deliver a total of 11 787s this month including a -9 to United Airlines.  Production flight testing seems to have slowed though it's unclear why.There are still a number of aircraft that still need to perform further Boeing and/or customer flights before they're ready for delivery within the next 10 days.

On the production front Boeing has rolled out 8 787s and started final assembly on another 8.  They will end rolling out a total of 11 787s from final assembly this month.  The inventory backlog sitting on the flightlines at Everett and Charleston won't change this month.  The schedules for many 787s deliveries have been pushed to the right.  For example, Avianca's first 787 was supposed to have been delivered in September.  It is now scheduled to be delivered in mid November.  As we move into November Boeing will change the final assembly line slightly in 40-24 (the surge line).  Instead of the 6 positions that are currently in use (0, 1A, 1B, 2, 3, 4), Boeing will go back to 5 positions starting around October 29th. (0, 1, 2, 3, 4).  I believe this is in preparation of winding down the surge activities by 2016 and moving all Everett 787 production to 40-26.

Production is slow and 787 inventory is growing.  While I don't have any concrete information as to why 787 deferred production costs are rising ($25.2bn through the end of the third quarter), I feel that it is undoubtedly due to the traveled work following all these airplanes.  For a 787 to go from the start if final assembly to delivery takes almost 4 months and therein lies the problem for the increase in deferred production costs.  These airplanes, going through the production system at Everett and Charleston, have to spend a lot of time finishing assembly tasks after final assembly is completed.  The promised efficiencies on the final assembly level have yet to materialize but Boeing insists they will start turning profitable on the 787 program in 2015. Part of the increase in production cost is due to the introduction of the 787-9.  These aircraft had to spend time at the EMC undergoing change incorporation as well as finishing traveled work.  As the aircraft is more integrated into the 787 production system and change incorporation is no longer necessary, cost to produce the 787-9 should come down  and should aid the overall reduction of deferred production costs in 2015.

I believe that in order to gauge that is to closely examine the time it takes for Boeing to get a plane from start of final assembly to delivery.  We need to see the aircraft coming out of final assembly without any traveled work.  This means that the 787 goes from the final assembly hall to the paint hangar then directly to the flightline to start production testing.  It also means that Boeing minimizes company and customer test flights which indicates improved build quality.  Currently Boeing has 32 787s (including the the "Terrible Teens" but not including those that are in production) in Everett.  This rising inventory needs to be cleared faster than the current rate which can be tracked on the production Trends spreadsheet.  Simply, Boeing needs to deliver 787s faster than then they are rolling them out at the factory.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing 787 September deliveries end third quarter on a high note.

September Month End Review

Boeing delivered 11 787s in September thus ending the third quarter on a high note after a a slow start in July.  For the quarter, Boeing delivered 31 787s.  The yearly total thus far is 80 aircraft in 2014 (includes one aircraft delivered on Oct.1) and 194 since deliveries began a little over three years ago.

The target is still 110 deliveries in 2014 and they can easily make that with and average of 10 aircraft delivered a month for the next 3 months.  Earlier I had projected that Boeing can deliver around 120 aircraft.  Clearly that number can't be reached but they do have the ability to deliver between 110 and 122.  787s deliveries were lackluster in July but rebounded nicely in August with 13 deliveries and maintained a strong pace with 10 in September.

In terms of efficiency. Charleston delivered 3 Dreamliners and rolled out only 2.  That translates to and efficiency of .667 (the lower the number the more efficient the plant is.  The Everett plane had an efficiency rating of 1 (rolled out 7 and delivered 7).

Future Deliveries

Deliveries included 3 787-9 (one each to United, ANA and Air New Zealand).

Planned deliveries for October are looking to be on the order of 11 to 13 aircraft.  This includes the 10th and final 787-8 for Ethiopian that is company owned which was delivered on October 1st.  Ethiopian will be taking 3 or 4 more 787-8s on lease from AerCap over the next year or so.  Boeing should break 200 deliveries easily though it's difficult to speculate which aircraft/customer will have that honor.

Deliveries should include:

1 787-9 to Virgin Atlantic (expected around Oct. 6)
1 787-9 to Etihad Airways
1 787-9 to United Airlines
1 787-8 to Fuerza Aérea Mexicana (Mexican Air Force) (around Oct. 8th)
1 787-8 each to Avianca, Kenya Airways, Xiamen, Thai Airways (leased from AerCap), Royal Jordanian (leased from CIT Leasing), and Air Canada
2 787-8 to Qatar Airways

Of course much of this depends on the preparations and readiness of the individual aircraft to be delivered including undertaking ground testing and production flight tests s well as the readiness of the customer to induct them into service.  Of the aircraft mentioned in the above list, three have yet to conduct their B-1 flights.

Production




Etihad 787-9 on 40-51 Ramp. Photo Courtesy of Brandon Ferris




Japan Airlines 787-9 in the EMC. Photo Courtesy of Brandon Ferris

In terms of production, Boeing should start final assembly on 10 to 11 787s this month. 4 will start on on the main line in 40-26, 3 on the surge line in 40-24 and 3 to 4 on the Charleston line.  They should roll out 10 this month but it is key that current month deliveries exceed the number of aircraft rolled out in order to reduce the carried inventory.  Boeing had built up a large 787 inventory during the first half of 2014 that they are now trying to catch up to deliveries in the second half.  They did a good job in the third quarter but the 4th quarter will be critical in reducing it further.

Boeing is also aiming to move the aged inventory (test flight aircraft plus the early build 787s (terrible teens).  ZA006 will be delivered to the Mexican Air Force and ZA003 will be donated to the Museum of Flight in November.

Sales

In the meantime, Boeing is continuing with several sales campaigns which can yield some significant orders for the 787.  However late last month they booked a cancellation for 15 787-9 for Air Berlin as part of a cost cutting move.  Interestingly, at the same time Boeing booked an unidentified order for 15 787-9s.  It is widely believed that the unidentified customer is Etihad which will use the aircraft either for itself or for one of the partner airlines in which the carrier has a financial interest.  This is reinforced by the fact that Air Berlin didn't pay any penalties for the order cancellation because Etihad took up the order.  This cancellation may have ramifications for a another sales campaign that is currently on going.  It is expected that Virgin Atlantic will exercise 5 787-9 options and I wouldn't be surprised if they make that announcement when they pick up their first 787-9 from Everett on Tuesday.  Sir Richard Branson also indicated that he is interested in the 787-10 so we might even see a new 787-10 order from them on Tuesday but let's wait and see on that one.

The two big sales campaign are Delta's order for 50 widebody aircraft.  Delta has shortlisted the selection to the 787-9 and the A350-900 and this is where the Air Berlin cancellation may have an effect.  The cancellation frees up early delivery slots which can entice Delta to buy the -9.  However, with Etihad taking up the order it remains uncertain if they kept Air Berlin's delivery slots.  If not then Boeing may have a leg up on Airbus for this order.

The second major 787 order would be one from Emirates which Boeing has coveted for a long time.  With the success of placing an incredibly huge number of 777 (777-300ER and 777X) with Emirates, Boeing still wanted to get them signed on to the 787.  With Emirates' cancellation of their entire A350 order, which will now be competed with the 787 and the A350, Boeing has a tremendous opportunity to finally place the 787 with the only holdout of the ME3 that hasn't placed a 787 order.  The decision is expected to come sometime in the first quarter of next year but I suspect that Boeing will be very aggressive in the pricing vs. the A350.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 3rd quarter 2014 report

As the 3rd quarter winds up, Boeing seems to be deferring some deliveries to after September 30th according to sources.  This includes the delivery of ZA006, the first 787-8 test flight aircraft to be sold.  Boeing will be attempting now to try and deliver a total of 9 to 11 787s in September including two 787-9 to ANA and Air New Zealand.  Notable deliveries that are being missed in September include:

1st 787-9 to Virgin Atlantic
1st 787-8 to Avianca

So far production looks to be returning to the normal levels of 10 to 11 aircraft per month.  I am projecting that Boeing should start final assembly on 11 787s this month and roll out 9 aircraft.  If Boeing can deliver 11 787s this month, it will go a long way to reducing the inventory of finished aircraft at Charleston and Everett.  As of today Boeing has delivered 188 aircraft since deliveries began exactly 3 years ago.  Boeing has delivered 74 Dreamliners this year and 5 in September.  The goal is 110 and are thus 36 deliveries short of their goal.  Assuming Boeing can manage 6 more in the last 5 days of September they would then need to average 10 787 deliveries per month in order to meet their goal.

Several deliveries should take place within the next two days including:

787-9 to ANA
787-9 to Air New Zealand
787-8 to Air India

Several others need to take the customer flights prior to delivery:

787-8 to LAN
787-8 to Royal Jordanian (via AerCap)
787-8 to Ethiopian (the last from their order of 10)

Now while Boeing can defer some of these deliveries to October, it will mean a much busier month in order to get caught up.  Resources that would have been devoted to preparing aircraft for their planned delivery in October will now be reallocated to those that have been deferred from September to October.  We'll see how it plays out in the next few days.

In other news, Etihad Airways will be unveiling its new livery on the 787-9 sometime on September 27th.  The livery was seen for the first time today on the airlines first A380.  In my opinion the livery was a dud except for the tail.

Lastly, Japanese aviation investigators reported that they could not find a root cause for the burning battery on the ANA flight on January 16th, 2013 which resulted in an emergency landing in Takamatsu, Japan. It was after this incident that lead to the worldwide grounding of the 787 until Boeing containment system to prevent further thermal runaways from developing into a fire.  Since the 787s returned to the air, there have been no further incidents of fires on the LION batteries.  I expect that the FAA, Boeing and battery maker GS Yuasa will continue their investigation and analysis in order to find a root cause of the thermal runaway.

I'll have a full 3rd quarter round up of the 787 program in early October.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 Update - August 19, 2014

787 deliveries picked up the first two and half weeks into August with 7 deliveries thus far including British Airways 8th and final 787-8.  They are second customer to have its 787-8 completely fulfilled this year (China Southern being the other).  In the next 12 days I do see Boeing delivering 7 more Dreamliners between the 20th and the 31st.  Currently they have delivered 177 787 since deliveries began, 63 this year, 15 thus far in the quarter and 7 so far this month.

The upcoming deliveries would include United's first 787-9 though Boeing is still waiting for the final FAA Type Certification for the GE powered aircraft.  We should also see the first deliveries to Royal Jordanian and Xiamen this month when they take 1 787-8 each.  Deliveries should also be made to Qatar, Jetstar (QANTAS), Kenya Airways and ANA.

For September, Boeing is looking to end the 3rd quarter 787s delivery on a bang with about 18 (maybe 19) deliveries.  The preliminary plan is for Boeing to deliver up to 4 787-9s including the first to Virgin Atlantic as well as one more each to ANA, Air New Zealand and United.  Also we can see the 10th and final delivery to Ethiopian of their order of 10 787-8s though they are going to be taking more on lease from AerCap. Both Avianca and CIT Leasing will take ownership of their 1st 787s.  In the case of CIT, these aircraft are being leased to Royal Jordanian.

While deliveries look promising this month, Boeing will start final assembly on only 7 787s this month.  It appears that there will be delay in the start of final assembly of LN 240 and LN 241 while Boeing South Carolina will continue producing at 3/month.  The word I've heard is that this to allow the start of transitioning of work from the surge line in 40-24 to 40-26 and the eventual shut down (in 2016) of the 787 surge line in 40-24.  Right now the surge is producing 3 787s while the main line is producing 4.  It'll be interesting to see how Boeing handles the transition over the next couple of years.

In September, Boeing should start final assembly on aircraft destined for American Airlines (2), Scoot and Royal Air Maroc.  If they are to deliver 26 airplanes by the end of September then Boeing can potentially have 203 total deliveries, 89 this year, and 41 in the third quarter.  They will have to put the pedal to the metal in terms of production flight testing however.  The next couple of leading up to the Labor Day holiday will probably be very slow as people go on vacation but come September 2nd the pace should quick substantially.  If they are able to deliver a substantial number of 787 in the next month and half then Boeing could potentially deliver closer to 120 787s this year.  Please note that there are a lot that can happen that would cause this estimation to go out the window but it does appear that Boeing is on a good track to deliver the delivery guidance.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker