Boeing Delivers 1000th 787

 Boeing delivered the 1000th 787 since program deliveries started in September 2011...almost 10 years ago. The aircraft is either ZE455 (LN 1057, JA 881J) for Japan Airlines or ZB971 (LN980, B-20EH) for Air Lease Corp leasing to China Southern Airlines as operator.  I am trying to find out which one has the 1000th Dreamliner to be delivered.  Both these airplanes had their delivery flight on 4/21 and 4/22 respectively and are both 787-9.  While this is an important milestone for the company and the 787 program itself, it is a bittersweet one given the trials and tribulations that the 787 has gone through since its inception.  During the boom years when the program was delivering up to 14 Dreamliners per month it had seemed the the worst days were behind it until the manufacturing issues and COVID-19 literally bought deliveries to a screeching halt.

Boeing has restarted 787 deliveries though it's a very tepid number (2 in March and 5 so far this month) and the issues that have grounded the airplanes are still not completely resolved nor are the market forces which have forced Boeing to consolidate the two production lines and dramatically reduce the 787 production rate.

The important question at this point is where does this program go from here.  It is my total expectation that Boeing will probably have a 787NG similar to the revamp of the classic 777 to the 777NG (777-200LR/7777-300ER) where there would aerodynamic improvements along with newer technology engines to further improve fuel burn. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a 787F amongst the offerings sometime this decade to supplant the 767-300ERF.  I don't anticipate that Boeing will launch this 787NG program for another 4 to 5 years though...not until there is a meaningful recovery in the widebody passenger aircraft market as well as more comfort amongst the flying public that the COVID-19 pandemic has subsided substantially enough that regular long range passenger travel recovers to pre-pandemic levels.

Meanwhile with the slowdown in 787 production along with the resumption of deliveries (albeit at a trickle), the 787 storage situation should be stabilized at the current levels of 90-96 airplanes just as long as there are no new issues that are revealed as the current inspections and re-work moves forward.

As always if there are any insiders with knowledge of the current status of the 787 program, please drop me an email at ureshs@aol.com.  I will try to update the blog and dmy spreadsheets as often as possible.

787 Spreadsheets

American Airlines pulls the trigger on mega 787 order

American Airlines and Boeing announced a firm 47 strong order for the 787.  The order consists of 22 787-8s which will start arriving in 2020 and 25 787-9s which will be delivered starting in 2023.  These airplanes will be used to replace the 767-300ER, A330-300, and older 777-200ER thus simplifying American's widebody fleet.  The order includes another 28 options for the 787.

American Airlines will cancel the order for 22 Airbus A350 that was ordered by US Airways in a pre-merger deal.  American is also deferring deliveries of 40 737MAX airplanes that were to be delivered between 2020 and 2022.

While this is a firm order what is unclear is if this is an exercise of 58 787 options that American Airlines held as part of their original order.  Boeing will only confirm that the new order is firm and booked.  If the two orders were taken as separate then it would mean that American Airlines order (firm + options) 175 787s which doesn't seem realistic even for an airline as large as American.  A more reasonable conclusion is that the new order is a partial exercise of the 58 options plus adding more options for future replacement and growth.

Currently American's widebody fleet (not including the 787) is made up of the following:

A330-200 - 15
A330-300 - 9
767-300ER - 23
777-200ER - 47
777-300ER - 20

Excluding the 77-300ER which are young and should be in their fleet for years to come, the total near term widebody replacements that American will need is 94 airplanes (encompassing all the A330, 767 and 777-200).  By my reasoning, American has orders for 93 787s - 47 firm new order, 7 firm current order, 39 options (11 current order options + 28 new order options).  This will be enough to simply their widebody fleet to just three types by around 2026 or so the 777-300ER, 787-8 and 787-9.  It is possible that American can use the 39 options for the 787-10 (or any future improved model of the 787).

This order is a shot in the arm for the 787-8 whose orders have been lagging as of late as many customers have been opting for the larger 787-9.  In the futrue the 39 options will probably be used for A330-200 replacement (787-9) and 777-200ER replacement (mix of 787-9 and 787-10).

With this booked order, Boeing now has 1366 order for the 787 (440 787-8, 755 787-9 and 171 787-10).

Here's the text of Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing, American Airlines Sign Major Order for 47 787 Dreamliners

World's largest airline to more than double its Dreamliner fleet

Boeing and American Airlines today announced the world's largest airline will more than double its 787 Dreamliner fleet with a new order for 47 of the super-efficient airplane plus 28 options. The 47 787s are valued at more than $12 billion at list prices and makes American Airlines the largest 787 customer in the Western Hemisphere.

American originally ordered 42 787 Dreamliners and has been using the airplanes' tremendous fuel efficiency and superior passenger amenities to open new routes around the world, including Asia Pacific and Europe, and boost its network efficiency. While American still has more airplanes on the way from its initial order, the airline is buying the additional Dreamliners – 22 787-8s and 25 787-9s – to further modernize and expand its fleet.

"We are extremely honored that American Airlines, is deepening its commitment to the 787 Dreamliner. This new order is a powerful endorsement of the 787 family's unique passenger appeal and unmatched ability to help airlines open new routes and grow profitably," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Kevin McAllister.

Built with lightweight composite materials and powered by advanced engines, the Dreamliner family lowers operating costs by more than 20 percent compared to previous airplanes, and nearly 10 percent compared to today's competing jets.

American becomes the latest airline to place a repeat order for the 787 Dreamliner. More than half of the program's 71 customers have done so, which has helped the 787 program achieve more than 1,350 orders to date.

"We are showing again and again that the 787 Dreamliner is the champion in its class. The airplane's tremendous value proposition explains why it has become the fastest selling twin-aisle jet in history," said Ihssane Mounir, senior vice president of Commercial Sales & Marketing for The Boeing Company. "And when we match the Dreamliner with Boeing's suite of services, it is a combination that delivers unbeatable value for our customers."

Boeing's Global Services division provides American Airlines with efficiency tools such as Airplane Health Management and Toolbox, which help the airline improve operational performance and improve dispatch reliability.

The 787-8 Dreamliner can fly 242 passengers up to 7,355 nautical miles (13,620 km) in a typical two-class configuration. The 787-9, a stretch of the 787-8, can fly 290 passengers up to 7,635 nautical miles.

About Boeing and American Airlines' history

The relationship between Boeing and American Airlines spans over 80 years. Some of the key shared milestones include:

• June 1936: American becomes the first to fly the Douglas DC-3 in commercial service
• January 1959: American uses the Boeing 707 to offer the first coast-to-coast jet service
• March 1961: American is the first in-service with the Boeing 720B
• July 1971: The first DC-10 delivery goes to American
• May 2015: American flies its first revenue flight with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner.

Boeing Achieves 600th 787 Delivery

On September 26th, Boeing delivered the 600th Dreamliner coming exactly 6 years and 1 day after the first 787 was delivered to ANA (a 787-8) on September 25th, 2011.  As far as I can ascertain, the 600th aircraft was also a 787-8 for British Airways which is ZA458 (LN 609, G-ZBJI).  There wasn't any announcement or celebration recognizing this milestone but to deliver 600 airplane in 6 years is quite notable for a widebody aircraft program and especially so for the 787 which had so much trouble in the early years.

Orders seems to be picking up as mentioned in previous posts with Turkish Airlines and Malaysia's order for the 787.  There is still a chance that Dubai-based Emirates can announce a 787 order at November's Dubai Air Show and I also received word that EgyptAir will be ordering the 787 (no word on numbers or version).  EgyptAir's possible order is intriguing as they have 10 A330 series aircraft that would be ready for renewal.  The 777-300ERs are fairly new but they just retired the 777-200ER so they could possibly use the 787-10 and 787-9 to replace the 777-200ER and A330 (both -200 and -300).  If an order from EgyptAir is close I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop at Dubai as well.

I'm still waiting to hear about Garuda Indonesia's 30 x 787-9 order to be finalized.

Lastly, Boeing is celebrating the 1 millionth passenger flight of the 787.  They released a video commemorating this feat below:

787 Month End Report for May 2017 and June 2017 Mid Month Report

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	Number
Testing Complete	3
To be assembled in Everett	174
To be assembled in Charleston	134
Parts Arriving	6
Undergoing final assembly	8
Storage	0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work	0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work	1
Pre-Flight Prep	10
Production Testing	4
Non Customer Flight Tests	3
Ready for Delivery	3
Donation	3
Delivered	553
TOTAL	902

Sorry for the delay in posting the May report but since we're at the middle of June I'm combining the posts into one for this month.

Boeing had a decent May performance with the delivery of 12 787s including one early build 787-8. Boeing delivered 9 787-9s and 3 787-8s and had bought the total deliveries as of the end of May to 553.  Year to date deliveries to the end of May stands at 53.  Through the first half of June Boeing delivered an additional 6 787s (1 787-8 and 5 787-9s).  Looking ahead to deliveries Boeing should deliver 11 787s this month (3 x 787-8 and 8 x 787-9s).  This total will include the last early build 787-8 for Ethiopian Airlines as well as a 787-9 that is being bought by the Saudi Ministry of Finance for use by Saudi Arabian Airlines.  This aircraft's delivery has been inexplicably delayed and another 787-9 has been delivered but has not flown to Saudi Arabia and indeed continues to sit at Charleston waiting to undertake its delivery flight.  The strange thing about this whole saga is that Saudi Arabian and the Saudi Ministry of Finance continued to take delivery of 777s.  And Saudi Arabian Airlines took delivery of direct purchased 787-9s.

All told Boeing would have delivered 64 787s through the first half of 2017 (16 x 787-8 and 48 x 787-9s).  This puts them under the current production pace of 12 per month.  This is undoubtedly due to the introduction of the 787-10 flight test aircraft production into the final assembly process thus reducing the number of 787s that Charleston can produce despite shifting some assembly of production standard 787s to Everett.  This total also includes 2 early build deliveries so the actual delivery total of current production aircraft is 62, about 10 lower than what it should be.  For the 2nd quarter Boeing will probably deliver 32 787s (6 x 787-8s and 26 x 787-9s).  Of course I'll have the final numbers during the first week of July but it appears that this is what the final tally will be.

In terms of production, Boeing appears to have restored 787 production to what is was prior to the start of 787-10 assembly.  I anticipate that Boeing should start final assembly on 12 787s while rolling out 12 aircraft in June.  The split should also be returned to what it was - 7 built at Everett and 5 in Charleston.  So far in June Everett has started final assembly on 4 airplanes and rolled out 3 while Charleston started work on 3 and rolled out a further 3.

On 787-10 testing, Boeing has added the final 2 787-10 flight test airplanes to the testing program.  ZC036 (LN548, N548ZC) flew on May 2, 2017 and has been flying regular test flight since June 1st.  ZC002 flew on June 8th and has been conducting multiple short duration flights out of Charleston and has not yet left for Boeing Field where Boeing's flight test team is headquartered.  Thus far the 787-10 flight test program has accumulated over 268 flight test hours spread across 108 flights.  Currently ZC001 (LN528, N528ZC) is on static display at the Paris Air Show (unfortunately not flying a 787 display like last year at Farnborough) and should be there until at least Thursday.  The fact that Boeing sent the 787-10 to Le Bourget instead of flying test flights means that the flight test program looks to be on schedule though I'm hoping that Boeing will give more clarity on 787-10 testing progress during the next couple of days or in late July when they have the 2nd quarter conference call.

One programming note, I will be putting up a daily posting of the commercial aircraft orders at the Paris Air Show as well as commentary during the week.  It does appear that this will not be a big week for the 787 (or widebody aircraft in general) but it looks like Boeing will announce the launch of the 737-10 Max tomorrow.  This will probably be the highlight of the show though we'll see if there are any surprises this year.  Look out for my daily posting starting tomorrow.  As always you can check out the 787 spreadsheets (link below) to see the latest on the 787 deliveries, firing order, production and 787-10 testing.

787 Spreadsheets