Everett has a busy day with locally built 787s, Charleston silent

Today was a busy day for the 787s at Everett with a couple of deliveries and a few test flights that is setting up for more deliveries in the coming couple of weeks.

Boeing started out the day by delivering 2 787s, one to ILFC for Aeromexico (ZA561) and one to Thomson (ZA320)).  The 787 for Air India (ZA242) which I reported as delivered yesterday will actually be delivered on Monday August 19 and flown to India on August 20th.  To date Boeing has delivered (not counting the Air India jet) 76 with 3 coming this month so far. 

there were quite few test runs today with two aircraft performing both Boeing and customer test flights on the same day.  This indicates that Boeing is trying to fast track the aircraft for delivery later this month (perhaps next week).  ZA577 (for ILFC/Norwegian), ZA122 (ANA) and ZA383 (China Southern) all flew today with the later two doing customer flights.  ZA452 (British Airways) was to conduct a re-run of its aborted B-1 flight but the pilots apparently could not start one of the engines...not good.

ZA452 G-ZBJC flite delayed unable to start one engine
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) August 16, 2013

I guess they'll try again tomorrow. Boeing is aiming for a significant number of deliveries, it seems, from Everett. Here are the delivereis that I think will be made over the next 2 weeks:

Japan Airlines : ZA186
ANA: ZA121, ZA122
China Southern: ZA383
Air India: ZA242
British Airways: ZA452
Norwegian/ILFC: ZA577

It is possible, if Charleston is able to, to have a couple more deliveries:

Qatar Airways: ZA467
LAN: ZA539

Totally, Boeing has the ability to deliver 12 total this month but some of this depends on what shows up during the customer flights and if Charleston will able to start to deliver aircraft.  Through all the 787 activity of the past few weeks, very little has come out of Charleston.  Indeed, of the 9 787s that are complete (including one that is in Ft. Worth being painted) none of these airplanes have had a customer flight in preparation for delivery.  The silence from Charleston has been deafening but it may not be entirely there fault.  They are saddled with 6 787s that are to be delivered to three problem child airlines (Air India, China Southern and Hainan Airlines).  The coming week should reveal more in terms of activity at Charleston.

Lastly, I've updated the tables with the most current information that I have available including the load dates for ZA321 (September 3) and ZB021 (August 21).  Interestingly, Boeing is increasing he number of days between airframes in 40-26.  The time between loading ZA216 for Jetstar  and ZA650 is 12 days.  The number of days between ZA650 and ZA321 is 15 days (including one day for the US Labor Day holiday).  I suspect when Boeing get the inventory down at Everett and Charleston we should see a return to the days where Boeing was loading a 787 every 5.5 days at Everett.  Don't even ask me about Charleston.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 

787 production testing accelerating

In the last 8 days Boeing has sent 6 787s into the air for each aircraft's first flight since the grounding ended.  This included two 787s that were flown on their B-1 flights today, April 30th.  Boeing had indicated that they would aggressively conduct production testing in order to get caught up on deliveries.  Though Boeing hasn't delivered a Dreamliner since the grounding ended, they have said that deliveries would re-start in early May.  It may re-start by the end of this week though I do expect that ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) should be delivered sometime next week after customer test flights are conducted by ANA pilots.

I expect that in the next 8 weeks, Boeing should be able to deliver 787s to Air India, JAL, ANA, Qatar Airways, ILFC (for Norwegian), LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan, Thomson Airways, and China Southern.  Thus far, 787s for Hainan, Air India, ANA, Thomson, LOT Polish, and JAL have entered production test flights with the revised lithium ion battery set up and there is a pattern.

Boeing is conducting test flights roughly in order that each aircraft emerged from final assembly.  There have been exceptions most notably a Hainan airframe which does not have any engines and a couple for LOT which are expected to be delivered later in the year.  If the current pattern holds then I expect that from Everett the following will be making their first flights in this order:

ZA383 - China Southern
ZA318 - TUI
ZA319 - TUI
ZA513 - ANA
ZA185 - JAL
ZA465 - Qatar

From Charleston these aircraft will be making their first flights in this order:

ZA434 - Hainan
ZA243 - Air India
ZA384 - China Southern
ZA385 - China Southern

I estimate that Boeing can deliver between 12 to 14 787s by the end of the second quarter including a few to Chinese carriers who are expecting that the 787 will be finally given its airworthiness certificate by Chinese authorities next month.

Prior to the grounding it took Boeing about 6 weeks after rolling out a 787 to the flightline to conduct all the necessary company and customer tests, finalize paperwork and make final delivery.  I see no reason why that would change now, though some aircraft that have already had quite a few test flights done prior to the grounding won't take that long since much of the flight testing is already completed.

Flight testing will continue to pick up pretty aggressively over the next few weeks as Boeing needs to work down the inventory of 37 787s that have built up over the last few weeks.

 

Boeing 787 firing order updated

I've been able to update the firing order for the 787. Not too much of a surprise but two new customers will be getting aircraft from this batch including the first lessor, ILFC.  Here's the round up but please keep in mind that this firing order can change.

Charleston
The Charleston plant will be building 3 Dreamliners including one  for Air India (ZA243) and 2 for China Southern (ZA384 and ZA385).  These are existing customers.

Everett
With the surge line now operational we'll be seeing an increase in output from Everett.  First delivery customers are ILFC (being leased to Aeromexico) (ZA560) and Thomson Airways (ZA317) and (ZA318).  Current customers include China Southern (ZA383), ANA (ZA513), Japan Airlines (ZA185), and Qatar Airways (ZA465).

In the meantime two more 787s have gone into the paint Hangar including the first 787 for LOT Polish Airlines, ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) and the 4th 787 for Ethiopian ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP).