Boeing increases 787 flight tempo to make a push for November month end deliveries

This past weekend, Boeing flew a number of 787s in a push to deliver them by the end of the month which will be shortened by the Thanksgiving Holiday.  Boeing had to fly a number of B flights as well as functional check flights (FCF) on several aircraft before proceeding with customer test flights. The increased temp in the last three days indicated that Boeing wants to deliver these airplanes relatively soon. Several flights were performed on aircraft destined for Hainan (2), Jetairfly (TUI), Air India, and Norwegian Air Shuttle.  On Friday, Boeing performed test flights on two 787s for China Southern.  I don't think these two are ready for delivery and may require more test flights this week.  Boeing can still deliver 787s for the first 3 days of this week and on Friday after Thanksgiving  Here's the ones that I think should deliver this week:

Norwegian (ZA650, LN 136, EI-LNC)
Japan Airlines (ZA187, LN 125, JA833J)
TUI (Jetairfly) (ZA327, LN 137, OO-JDL)
Hainan Airlines - 2 - (ZA432, LN 79, B-2729) and (ZA435, LN 131, B-2731)
China Southern Airlines - 2 - (ZA381, LN 36, B-2726) and (ZA386, LN 104, B-2737)

All of these airplanes have flown a comparable number of test flights compared to those previously delivered to the same airline.  If these airplanes are not delivered this week then more than likely the delivery will be made next week.  If Boeing can deliver even 5 of these airplanes this week, it will be a very good month for them delivery wise.

Since Boeing has increased the production rate to 10/month, they're under increasing pressure to move airplanes off the flightlines and into customer hands lest the production 787s start to crowd the Everett and Charleston tarmac again.

For next month I don't see it being much of a stretch for Boeing to deliver 10 to 11 787s in a push to pad the year end numbers.  During the next 36 days (between now and year end) I can see Boeing pushing out 2 more 787s from Charleston and 6 more from Everett (including one that will pull out by the end of November). Most of these will be delivered in January.  At Everett, ZA188 (LN 152) will be the last aircraft to go to the flightline this year to prepare for delivery.  At Charleston ZA294 (LN 145, N26910) will be the last one to be pulled out of 88-30.  Of course, Boeing may surprise us and also pull out ZA564 (LN 155) and ZA447 (LN 156) for a total of 10 787s in December.

My final number for 787 deliveries for 2013 is 66 plus or minus 2.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

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787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

ZA002 News - ZA001 and ZA005 to fly back to Boeing Field

Boeing released a statement this morning updating the media on the fire on board ZA002 and giving some immediate plans. First off, the two 787s that are not at Boeing Field, ZA001 and ZA004 will be flown back to Boeing Field. Currently ZA001 is at Rapid City, SD where it was being re-fueled for a return to Boeing Field when the fire took place. Boeing elected to ground the airplane after the incident. ZA005 has been at Victorville, CA. for a few weeks undertaking NAMS (nautical air mile testing). It too will be flown back to Boeing Field today. Boeing cleared the flights with the FAA and no testing will be undertaken on these ferry flights to Seattle. The other 787s are already at Boeing Field except for ZA002 which is being repaired and ZA003 which is at Everett for ground tests.

On ZA002, Boeing has completed its inspection but not its investigation. They've collected all the data and have begun repairs to the aircraft. There was a some structural damage which Boeing says will be repaired using standard repair techniques that they have developed for the composites on the 787. The repair team will also replace the insulation and the failed power module.

Boeing has not yet established a timeline to complete the repairs or for when test flights will resume. They say they are getting closer to a root cause of the fire but have not yet shared this knowledge.

Boeing said the entire incident lasted only 90 seconds and the fire lasted 30 seconds. Boeing also said that the redundancies allowed the airplane to conclude the flight in a configuration that would have enabled it to fly to a diversion airport if the airplane was flying a typical revenue flight. The meaning of that statement is that the airplane systems worked as advertised (other than the failed power panel) and the safety systems and redundancies made sure that the airplane concluded the flight safely. This would have been the case if the airplane was over the middle of the Atlantic at 40,000 feet.

A local Seattle TV news station said that the pilots didn't declare an emergency until AFTER the 787 had landed in Laredo. It had been widely assumed that the emergency was declared while the airplane was on final approach into the airport.

King 5: Pilots Declared Fire Emergency after 787 landed

In light of the fire, the FAA has stopped certification activities except for ground tests. How long this suspension will last will depend on the nature of the incident and Boeing's ability to demonstrate that they have a fix and that it will not occur again.

FAA Hits Brakes on 787 Certification

Guy Norris has a posting on today news:

Guy Norris: 787 will today - briefly

Here's Boeing's statement:

Two Boeing 787 Dreamliners to Return to Seattle; Laredo Investigation Continues

EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 16, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- While the investigation into the incident onboard 787 Dreamliner ZA002 continues, Boeing has established a plan to fly two other aircraft, ZA001 and ZA005, back to Seattle from Rapid City, S.D., and Victorville, Calif. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has reviewed and approved the plans.

ZA001 was undergoing refueling in South Dakota when the incident on ZA002 occurred and the company decided to forgo additional flights. ZA005 was on remote deployment for testing in California.

The flights follow a series of inspections on the airplanes' aft electronics bays. No testing will be performed on the flights.

The team investigating the incident in Laredo has developed a detailed understanding of the ZA002 incident, though more work remains to complete the investigation. In addition to the information already released about the incident, data show that:

The total duration of the incident was less than 90 seconds.
The fire lasted less than 30 seconds.
The airplane concluded the event in a configuration that could have been sustained for the time required to return to an airport suitable for landing from any point in a typical 787 mission profile.


The team in Texas has completed inspection of ZA002 and has begun to
prepare to install a new power panel and new insulation material. The team also is repairing minor structural damage that occurred during the event. This damage will be addressed with standard repair techniques in the airplane structural repair manual. The team is currently evaluating the timeline for completion of the repair work.

The incident on ZA002 demonstrated many aspects of the safety and redundancy in the 787 design, which ensure that if events such as these occur, the airplane can continue safe flight and landing.

No decision has been reached on when flight testing of the 787 will resume. Before
that decision can be made, we must complete the investigation and assess whether any design changes are necessary. Until that time, Boeing cannot comment on the potential impact of this incident on the overall program schedule.

787 production continues

Meanwhile there will be line move in the 787 final assembly building today with the 26th 787 (ZA231) for Air India moving to the paint hangar at Everett.
The first 787 for Air India (ZA230) made it's first appearance being towed to the Boeing flightline at Everett. Flightblogger posted photos of the aircraft being towed to the flightline from the paint hangar. The line move makes room for the 30th 787 (ZA234) to start final assembly. The next 787 to enter final assembly after that will be ZA117 for ANA on Dec. 1st...two weeks from now.

Flightblogger talks 787 production and horizontal stabilizers

Now that Alenia has effectively shut down 787 production for another 2 weeks....flightblogger revealed in a new post that the Italian company actually may have shut it down for much longer. The reasoning.....there hasn't been a 787 line move since October 3. There were to have been two more line moves in the month of October whch did not occur. The reason is the needed rework of the horizontal tail assemblies that Alenia is responsible for. Boeing has a whole slew of people in Italy trying to get them back on track but it seems that Alenia's troubles probably run very deep.

With all the issues surrounding the horizontal stabilizer, Boeing chose to mocve the line which left ZA231 without a the tailplane. It was being reworked when the line moved and is now installed on airplane 27 (ZA178).

This has thrown 787 final assembly into a tailspin (pun intended) as the horizontal stabs for airplanes 26 to 29 are being reworked as well as those that are already on the fully assembled production airplanes. Stabilizers meant for certain palnes are being installed on others. This won't be a problem as it is a common part, of course, but it does illustrate what the problems at Alenia has caused downstream in the production process.

Here's how things are laid out in building 40-26 in terms of HTP-airframe

Airplane 25 --> HTP #25
Airplane 26 --> HTP #29
Airplane 27 --> HTP #26
Airplane 28 --> HTP #27
Airplane 29 --> HTP #28
Airplane 30 --> HTP #30 --- this is where Boeing will be back to a normal assembly routine.

As evidenced by the number of 787s on the Boeing flightline where the HTP has been disassembled, it is evident that the problem is quite serious with many of them requiring rework prior to delivery. Boeing has set up a tool to allow easy access to the areas of the HTP that need rework but it's clear that the first 23 production airplanes will have quite a bit of work ahead of them before they are delivered next year. Flightblogger's article is a great read and does raise some flags with respect to Alenia. My sense is that if there is way Boeing can extract it self from Alenia it will. They have already indicated that the HTP for the 787-9 will probably come back in house and I think this is a certainty.

Flightblogger: A Closer Look: Inside the 787 delivery hold and horizontal stabilizer issues

787 keeps movin' along

As the time to first delivery draws closer, Boeing is ramping up both production as well as the pace of flight testing.

Flight Testing

The 787 flight test fleet is closing on 2000 flight hours flown, they can potentially break through that mark today. The Rolls Royce powered 787s got a real work out on Oct. 12th flying almost 24 flight hours during the day and breaking through the 1800 flight hour mark for the RR/787 flight test combination. Hopefully this signals a push to accumulate the remaining 35% flight test requirements needed to certify the Rolls powered 787s. Boeing has completed almost 75% of the require flight test hours needed to certify the Trent 1000 powered 787s so they are getting close.

While the first four 787s are being pushed, ZA005 is at Everett for some standard inspections as well as fuel transfer tests. ZA006 remains at Boeing Field going through the post first flight lay up where additional flight test instrumentation is being installed. I haven't heard when those two airplanes will be flying again. Currently about 27% of the GEnx/787 flight test hours have been flown.

ZA102 is now scheduled to fly around November 24th instead of November 9th though that date may change. This will be the first flight of a production standard 787 with a full customer interior. Both ZA101 and ZA102 have its Trent 1000 engines. ZA101 will undertake ground testing though I'm not sure if it has a customer interior as well.

Next month ZA004 will down for about a month while it gets new Trent 1000 engines with the package "B" improvements meant to bring the engines to within 1% of the promised SFC (specific fuel consumption) that Rolls Royce promised to its customers.

Production

As the flight test wring out the 787 for delivery, Boeing is slowly ramping up 787 production. Currently ZA230 will moved out of position 4 in building 40-26 and the line should pulse on October 15th but the next airplane ZA233 (LN 29) won't be loaded into position 1 until October 26th. I'm still trying to find out why the 11 day delay. ZA234 (LN 30, a 787 for Air India) is due to start final assembly 9 days later. This indicates that Boeing is attempting a 9 to 10 day run with each airframe is in each of the 4 assembly positions 9 to 10 day. This translates to a final assembly run for each 787 of about 36 to 40 days in building 40-26. At that rate, Boeing should be at ZA236 (LN 35, the 35th 787 being built is for Air India) by the end of the year though they will have 30 787s built and out on the flightline.

Speaking of the flightline, the parking spots for airplanes at Everett are getting full. So full that Boeing is now parking airplanes in a small ramp area in fron of the Future of Flight Museum. According to Matt Cawby, Boeing has leased out space at Everett near the air control tower as well asto the south of the asembly halls in order to store built but undelivered 787s.

Lastly, Flightblogger took a trip to 787 suppliers in Asia and has put up an excellent post of the 787 suppliers in Korea with some great photos. It is a great read.

Flightblogger: From Busan to Boeing: 787s Asian Supply Chain Part 1

787 Happenings

Boeing and the FAA continues on the certification flight test path with the test flight fleet accumulating just under 575 flight hours. Interestingly, flights that occurred yesterday were not posted on Flightaware for some reason and flight notifications are not being sent from Flightaware for any 787 flight.

Next week one 787 is going to fly to Colorado Springs Airport for more flight testing around May 11th. I surmise that this trip to Colorado might be for high altitude flight testing. ZA001 should return to flight test today or tomorrow and ZA002 will be flying towards the end of this week. ZA005 is still scheduled to make its first flight towards the end of May while ZA006 will follow by mid June.

Lastly, I have been keeping track of the 787 production and I found out that 4 of 5 787s for LN 26 to LN 30 will be going to Air India. LN 25 (ZA230), LN 26 (ZA231), and LN 28 (ZA232) to LN 30 (ZA234) will be for Air India. LN 27 (ZA178) will be a Japan Airlines bird. I expect that these airplanes will be in final assembly this fall.