AAIB to put out interim report on Ethiopian 787 incident within days; 787 production slowed in Everett

UPDATE: Jon Ostrower is reporting that the 1st 787-9 (ZB001, LN 126, N789EX) should be rolling out of 40-24 and into the paint hangar at around 11PM PT. Final assembly of this test flight aircraft took 48 days.

The UK's AAIB is expected to put out an interim report on the fire/heat event on board the Ethiopian 787 which occurred on July 12th.  Thus far investigator are looking at the aircraft's lithium-manganese powered emergency locator transmitter (ELT).  This piece of equipment is made by Honeywell and is considered an off the shelf item meaning that it was not designed exclusively for the787 but is probably used on other commercial aircraft models.  It is far from certain if the ELT is the cause or help feed the fire but investigators did find this piece of equipment virtually destroyed and the damaged to the carbon composite structure of the aircraft is in the area where the ELT is located.

In the meantime none of the airlines nor Boeing have stopped 787 operations and the carriers continue to fly their full schedule.

Boeing continues 787 production with the 2nd 787-9, ZB002 (LN133, N789FT) entering final assembly on July 12th in 40-24.  However an analysis of the 787-8s that have started final assembly reveal that the production rate has slowed at Everett. I'm not sure if it was due to the prolong grounding during the winter-early spring, the re-configuration of the main final assembly hall in 40-26 or a combination of both.  Looking at the production table, Boeing loaded ZA563 (LN 127) on June 26th after the reconfiguration and construction in 40-26 but the next two 787-8 that entered into final assembly was LN 128 (6 days later on July 2), LN 130 (14 days later after LN 128) and LN 131 is due to enter assembly 10 days later after LN 130.  To keep up the 5/month rate in Everett Boeing has to be loading one 787 into position 1 every 6 days.  It may be that they are re-ramping up to that rate after the construction but we would have to see.

The situation in Charleston may be similar.  The Post and Courier revealed that the Charleston line is producing at 1.5/month and will not get to 3/month until sometime in the 1st quarter of 2014 but that Boeing still plans to have 787 production at 10/month by the end of this year.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 

Boeing to start 787-9 final assembly on May 30

Source revealed that Boeing will load ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) on May 30th. This should lead to the rollout of the aircraft approximately 2 months later in late August. First flight is anticipated later this fall though timing is still uncertain.

Boeing has taken delivery of ZB001's horizontal and vertical tail plane as well as the wings.  In the coming two weeks we should see the delivery of the fuselage sections into Everett.

Boeing is shifting production of 787-8s to the main 40-26 and 88-03 assembly lines in Everett in case issues with the assembly of the first 787-9 encounters problems in 40-24. Already Charleston is taking on more 787-8 but the bulk of the 787-8 production will go to the main final assembly in Everett.

The other two 787-9 test airplanes will follow ZB001 in the 40-24 surge line.

Meanwhile Boeing has resumed deliveries of the 787-8. ZA513 (LN83, JA818A) was delivered to ANA marking the airlines 18th 787 and Boeing's 51st 787 delivered.

LOT Polish Airlines was to have taken its 3rd 787 (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) today but that is being delayed due to some minor issues with the aircraft. Delivery is now expected to take place around Thursday.

 

787 production update

As we approach the Holiday week, Boeing will be going into a slow down mode as is the custom around this time of the year.  There have been moves of late which I'll highlight here.

Boeing has moved out ZA274 (LN 88, SP-LRE) for LOT and ZA184 (LN 89, JA830J) for Japan Airlines.  They moved ZA513 (LN97, JA819A) for ANA into the body-wing join in 40-24 to start final assembly.  This is the last aircraft that will start final assembly in 2012. I expect it to be delivered sometime around middle to late February 2013.

Boeing also moved ZA232 (LN 28, VT-ANC) to the EMC to begin the change incorporation process for this airframe prior to delivery to Air India sometime next year.

I have also updated the tables to reflect the firing order for airplanes 116 to 130. The highlight of this list is ZB001 (LN126) which is the first 787-9 to go into final assembly.

There are a couple of things that caught my attention when I saw the list.  Boeing is assembling this aircraft on the 40-24 surge line and not on the main assembly line in 40-26.  Second, Boeing has diverted the final assembly of the 787-8s from 40-24 and is concentrating the production of customer aircraft in 40-26 and 88-03 in Charleston.  This is obviously in case they run into issues during final assembly of the first 787-9 that there aren't any bottlenecks in 787-8 production.  They are leaving themselves enough margin, it seems, to address issues with assembling the 787-9.  There will be a 3 airframe margin in front of the ZB001 and at least a 4 frame margin behind the aircraft as it makes it way through the final assembly stations in 40-24.

I don't have any information on follow on 787-9 frames just as yet but Boeing is believed to be planning for a 3 aircraft test fleet for the 787-9 with the test program lasting about 6 months.  I roughly estimate that ZB001 should enter the final assembly building around June 13, 2013.  Boeing has said the aircraft will start final assembly during the summer.  Since this is a brand new variant, I am assuming at least 6 weeks for final assembly and another 6 weeks for ground testing before first flight.  This would mean that this airplane can be flying around the middle of September, 2013.

On the firing order nothing stands out though we do get to see the first 787 for JetStar going through final assembly as well as the first 2 787s for Royal Brunei Airlines.  The Royal Brunei Order is listed as unidentified on Boeing's Order and Delivery website but they did order  787-8s with Trent-100 engines.  The airlines says that they are expecting to take delivery of the 1st 787 in early September 2013. This list as it stands now would cover deliveries through early September, 2013.

787 Movement - July 3, 2012

There was quite a bit of moving around for Boeing's 787 inventory both in Everett and in Charleston. To start, Boeing confirmed that the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery were flown to Charleston to free up space on the Everett ramp.  Boeing said that it was a good move as several of the first few Charleston built planes are also destined for Air India.  Speaking of Air India 787 deliveries, there is word that the Ministry of Aviation won't sign off on the deal until next week because one of the ministers is on vacation.  Apparently in India business stops if someone is out on vacation.  IF, and that is really big IF, everything get signed off by the government of India deliveries conceivably can start towards the end of next week or early the following week.  There is a great article in the Charleston Regional Business Journal about Air India, the 787s and the attitude behind the whole fiasco but it sums up the attitude of the GoI and Air India quite nicely.

Boeing flew ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Boeing Field on Sunday in preparation for it to fly to Farnborough on Thursday.  Word is delivery to Qatar Airways should occur the week of July 16th IF (another big IF) there are no contractual hang ups.  A date has not been set and given the unpredictability of Qatar CEO Akbar Al Baker this rough time frame could slide.  Qatar's pilots still has to fly the aircraft I believe and this probably won't occur until after the Farnborough Air Show.  The airplane is flying July 9th to July 11th and I anticipate that it should return to Everett on July 11th.  When it returns to Everett this plane will be carrying two Qatar Airways pilots who might conduct customer flights and may eventually ferry the aircraft back to Doha when delivery is complete.  It is conceivable that Qatar could take delivery before Air India making this carrier the third airline to fly the 787 and the first one outside of Japan.

ANA took delivery of its 10th 787 on Sunday, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) then flew to Haneda International Airport last night.  ANA should be taking delivery of 4 to 5 more 787s by the end of August given the number that is in pre-flight.  Another ANA 787 will be pushed out the door tonight.  This airplanes is ZA119 (LN 69) will go to the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before going off to paint.

On the production front, Boeing pulled out ZA238 (LN 54) from building 88-03 in Charleston.  It is now on the flight line along with the other three Air India bound 787s. No word on if assembly has started on ZA431 (LN 76) for Hainan Airlines but I'm assuming for now that parts are still arriving. At Everett, Boeing has moved another 787 inside the EMC. ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) for Qatar Airways is now inside where it is continuing with change incorporation along with units for China Southern, United and JAL.  One or both of the China Southern airplanes should be out by August where it will go through painting and go into pre-flight.  This airline can possibly take delivery in September.

I have updated the tables below to reflect the current disposition of all the 787s that are in production or have been delivered.  Have a safe and Happy 4th of July!