JAL to receive first 787 this weekend, possibly two more next month

UPDATE: I have just got confirmation that both JA822J and JA825J will be formally delivered to Japan Airlines on Sunday, March 25. I still don't know if fly away will occur for both the next day or not and I'm still not sure if Boeing is delivering JA806A on the same day.

Japan Airlines is preparing to take ownership of its first and possibly second 787 this weekend. I'm still trying to find out but ZA177 (JA822J, L/N 23) and ZA179 (JA825J, L/N 33) are supposed to be delivered this month with at least one to be delivered this Sunday (March 25) and possibly both being delivered on the same day. Fly away is scheduled for Monday March 26th at 4PM local time. It does seem certain that both ZA177 and ZA179 will be delivered this month.

According to sources, JA806A (ZA117, L/N 40) for ANA is scheduled to be delivered on March 25th as well. It would be an unusual delivery day for Boeing with the company delivering 787s to two customers that are competitors. This is not yet final though and I am trying to confirm. This airplane should also be delivered in March nonetheless.

For April, Boeing is planning to deliver 3 more 787s also all to ANA and JAL. ANA is tentatively scheduled to receive ZA105 (JA808A, L/N 42) around April 17th. Boeing has pulled out two more 787s to the Everett flightline, JA826J (ZA180, L/N 37) and JA827J (ZA181, L/N 38). Both are tentatively scheduled to be delivered to Japan Airlines but the date is uncertain. Again all this is tentative.

One observation which is unsurprising is that most of these airplanes are late build 787s (L/N 33 and higher). Boeing is expecting to work on the early builds and deliver them from now until early 2014. Boeing's first delivery to Air India is also a late build airplane, VT-ANH (ZA236, L/N 35). This airplane was flown to San Antonio for unknown reason though I suspect it is to probably do some last minute work. This airplane should deliver in May. Going forward into the summer we should start seeing deliveries made to Qatar in addition ot AI, JAL and ANA. United will come later in the fall as will LAN, Ethiopian and China Southern.

Update to March 2012 787 deliveries

UPDATE: Boeing will be sending one of the 787 built for Air India to an Airshow in Hyderabad which is to take place next month. It will have a full interior as ordered by Air India but it won't be delivered as the Government of India is still debating, apparently, whether to accept the 787 into Air India. As such these aircraft, already built are in limbo due to the financial situation at Air India as well as AI's demands for $1bn in delay compensation. Again it seems that Air India is trying to get Boeing to pay for its own gross mismanagement of the air line. The 787 order is being held hostage due to this situation. ZA236 is goingto be flown to Boeing Field, ostensibly to prepare it for the show but also to help free up space at Everett. I can see Boeing flying more service ready 787s there in order to free up space at Everett.

I just got some updated delivery dates for 787 deliveries this month.

ZA117 (LN 40, JA806A) on March 21 for ANA
ZA177 (LN 23, JA822J) on March 29 for JAL
ZA179 (LN 33, JA825J) on March 29 for JAL

The two JAL deliveries moved up 2 days while the ANA delivery slide by 5 days. Again this information is preliminary and may change as conditions change at Boeing. Again no word on delivery to Air India of ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH). Special thanks to Snooze Control. I would also like to ask Snooze Control to send me an email to ureshs at aol com

Good news for the 787

The last week or so has provided some welcomed good news for the 787s. First was Boeing's announcement that they had increased the production rate to 3.5 aircraft per month. This was sooner than planned as Boeing had expected that the rate would be increased later this sprig. Boeing is still planning to be at 5/month by the end of this year though if the supply chain continues to show this sort of improvement then it may be sooner. This is a very, very good sign for the program.

The second bit of good news came out today when Boeing announced that they had completed the certification test program for the 787 with the end of the certification program for the GEnx-1B powered version of the Dreamliner. ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) had completed the final bit of F&R and ETOPs testing late last month and flew back to Everett. Boeing had also completed all the final ground tests that they needs to perform. I anticipate that Boeing should receive final type certification for the GEnx powered 787 in the next 1 to 2 weeks. This should still give the company time to deliver the first GE powered Dreamliner to Japan Airlines by March 31st. In fact ZA236 which just completed the certification test flights is back out on the flightline at Everett but painted in Air India colors this time indicating that this aircraft might soon be delivered soon.

Currently, information that I received a bout two weeks ago shows that Boeing has planned to deliver three 787s this month. They are:

ZA117 (LN 40, JA806A) on March 16 for ANA
ZA177 (LN 23, JA822J) on March 31 for JAL
ZA179 (LN 33, JA825J) on March 31 for JAL

In addition Boeing is not planning any B1 flights for any 787. The three aforementioned 787s have all had their B1 flights though they have yet to fly any subsequent pre-delivery flights. IT does seem that the shim issue has slowed down the pace of pulling out the prepared 787s to the flightline to begin the pre-delivery process. The other unknown is if ZA236 will be delivered this month. A lot of that will depend on if the airplane is ready and if Boeing and Air India have concluded negotiations on compensation for the 787 delays.

Lastly, now that the build rate has gone up in Everett, Boeing will still need to park those new 787s around Everett. Boeing has started parking 787s on the Kilo 6 (K6) taxiway at Everett. This taxiway is in the southwest part of the airport near the Flying Heritage Museum. The first one to be parked there was ZA288 (LN 53) for United Airlines. Space is becoming a premium at Everett and the pace of 747 and 787 deliveries has slowed. April will be critical as the 787s that are built at the newer rate will be pushed out the door and that means even more 787 on the Everett ramp unless Boeing starts to deliver those that are in re-work during April. As added pressure, Boeing is also upping the 747 rate to 2/month later this year.

Getting close to the finish line

UPDATE (10AM) ZA236 is flying back to Everett today. This is a strong indication that F&R/ETOPs testing is complete. The F&R/ETOPs certification testing for the GEnx-1B powered 787s was based out of Boeing Field. With the airplane heading back to Everett the testing appears complete and this airplane can be released in order to prepare it for delivery to Air India.

Boeing's efforts to complete 787 flight testing with the GEnx-1B engines are close to being completed if they aren't finish already. ZA236 has flown just under 153 flight test hours thus far. The aircraft needed to fly about 150 F&R/ETOPs flight hours to finish the certification program for this version of the 787. Boeing has not confirmed that they are finished with the tests as of yet. The true indication that they are complete is when ZA236 flies back to Everett to finish preparations for delivery to Air India.



As far getting other 787s ready for delivery, there are about 10 787 at the Everett Modification Center that are undergoing change incorporation or shim inspection in the rear fuselage as well as one airplane in 40-24. Three of these airplanes were aircraft that are close to being delivered (to Japan Airlines or ANA) including ZA177 (LN23, JA822J), ZA179 (LN33, JA225J) and ZA117 (LN42, JA806A). Once these airplanes are inspected and repaired (if needed) then they will continue they typical preparations for delivery. The list of 787s at EMC is below with the locations highlighted in green. These are the airplanes I anticipate will be the next few that will be delivered. Interestingly enough these include a few of the very early build airplanes, ZA100 (LN 7), ZA534 (LN 10), and ZA501 (LN 12).



Jim Albaugh, speaking in Singapore has said that up to 55 787s would have to be inspected and repaired for the flaw. To put it in proper context, this would include all the airframes from LN 4 to LN 59, the latter of which is currently in position 1 in 40-26 and just starting final assembly. This number also includes the 5 airframes that have already been delivered to ANA but does not include any airplanes sections that have yet to be delivered to Everett for final assembly.

No 787 Deliveries in February

Information just received indicates that while Boeing will be preparing 787s for delivery including the first deliveries of the GEnx-1B powered 787s. However, none of these airplanes will be delivered this month. It looks like these airplanes are being delayed about three and a half weeks.

According to information just received, ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) will be delivered to ANA around March 14th. This aircraft just had its first flight on Feb. 7. Both JA177 (JA822J, L/N 23) and ZA179 (JA825J, L/N 33) are scheduled to be delivered to Japan Airlines around March 24 with ZA179 tentatively scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 13th (ZA177 had its first flight last year).

Lastly, ZA105 (JA808A, L/N 42) is scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 29th but no delivery date has been set.

Undoubtedly this schedule shift has been caused by the need to check the aft fuselage for improper shimming installation and to take corrective measures if any are needed. Flightblogger has revealed that the inspections would take about three days but any work to correct any problems would take about two weeks per aircraft. This new schedule would corroborate this time estimate.

Meanwhile, Boeing contiues F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA236. On Wednesday/Thursday this aircraft flew a long 19 hour flight essentially Etch-A-Sketching "787" and the Boeing Corporate logo in the skies over the Western and Mid-Western sections of the country. Thus far this aircraft has flown 48.5 hours. It is expected that this airplane needs to fly about 150 hours to finish the certification program for the GEnx powered 787s.

Boeing starts final 787/GEnx F&R/ETOPs testing?

It looks as if Boeing may have started the final F&R/ETOPS testing for the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787 Dreamliner. ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH), a production standard airplane destined for customer Air India and recently transferred to Boeing Field took off at about 11AM PST from Boeing Field and flew a 6h 40min test flight down and up the Pacific coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California before returning to Boeing Field. It is understood that ZA236 had transferred to Boeing Field was the express purpose of conducting the final F&R/ETOPs tests flights in order to gain final certification for this version of the 787.

It is unknown, at this time, how many hours still need to be flown for the final phases of this test program but when Boeing flew the F&R/ETOPs test for the Rolls Royce powered version of the 787, they ran it to 300 flight test hours with ETOPS testing being done concurrently with the F&R testing on the test flights. Boeing has already run some of hte F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA006, a test airplane which is currently undergoing re-work and refurbishment ot a production standard airplane in San Antonio. The FAA is requiring Boeing to fly some portion of hte F&R/ETOPs testing o na production standard airplane. This testing has been delayed due to technical issues with ZA236, the nature of which is currently unknown.

Assuming that Boeing will still have to fly 300 flight test hours and assuming that half of this testing done by ZA006 is considered complete by the FAA, then Boeing may have to run about 150 flight test hours on ZA236. Assuming about 8 flight test hours per flight that would mean that ZA236 would have to fly 20 days in order to complete final certification flight tests for the GEnx 787. That would leave roughly a week for Boeing to submit the final type certification paperwork to the FAA and to get their final review and approval so that Boeing can begin deliveries to JAL and Air India a the end of this month. This is very tight. Current Boeing plans show have that ZA177 (L/N 23, JA822J) and ZA129 (L/N 33, JA825J) are being prepared for delivery on Feb. 27th with ZA179 scheduled to make its first flight on Feb. 7th. Whether Boeing can hold to this schedule depends on the pace of the F&R/ETOPs testing and any issues that may be revealed as a result of this testing.

Additionally Boeing has an ANA 787, ZA117 (L/N 40, JA806A) tentatively scheduled for delivery around Feb. 19th with a first flight date of Feb. 7th. All these schedules are tentative schedules and may (probably) will change over the course of the next few weeks.

January 787 delivery update part 2

I just got this from a source but it may change depending on conditions at Everett. ZA104 (JA807A, L/N 41) may have been contractually delivered on Tuesday, January 10th. It may flyaway to Haneda Tokyo today, January 12th at about 6PM local time if delivery has been indeed made a couple days ago. Typically the flyaway is a couple days after contractual delivery though it varies from customer to customer and particular circumstances a t the time.

ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is scheduled to be delivered today and may flyaway a couple of days from now. There were no further test flights of both aforementioned aircraft since January 10th.

ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) is still scheduled (tentatively) for delivery on the 30th but this should be taken with a grain of salt as the aircraft has not appeared on the flightline yet.

Further I've gotten information that ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) may make its first flight around Jan. 16th though this is still up in the air (so to speak). This aircraft is to conduct the final portion of F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787 for certification purposes. If Boeing is able to get this part of the program completed in time with certification of of the GEnx 787s then They may be able to deliver two GEnx 787s starting in February. One each would go to Japan Airlines (ZA177, JA822J, L/N 22) and Air India (ZA236, VT-ANH, L/N 35). Boeing also has a 787 penciled in for ANA (ZA105, JA808A, L/N 42) next month.

There are no definitive delivery dates for these airplanes for obvious reasons and these airplanes themselves may not deliver next month due to continued issues revolving the amount of re-work and the allocation of resources to effectively deal with the amount of work. there should be further clarification of the 787 deliveries on about two weeks when Boeing has it's 2011 earnings conference call.

Boeing to attempt 4 787 deliveries in December

According to a source, Boeing will now attempt to deliver 4 787 in the month of December instead of 2 as I had previously reported.


In addition to JA805A (L/N31,ZA116) and JA807A (L/N41, ZA104); Boeing will also try to deliver JA804A (L/N9, ZA102) and JA808A (L/N42, ZA 105).

L/N 9 has already flown as it took part in the certification test program when it conducted F&R/ETOPs testing for the 787/Trent-1000 combination. Boeing should be able to deliver this airplane though it still needs to conduct pre-delivery test flights. Of the four airplanes that are mentioned above, only L/N 31 is flying customer and Boeing pre-delivery flights. It it anticipated that this airplane should be delivered within the next one week, before Christmas time.

The other three have yet to fly and are all scheduled to be delivered just before New Year'e Eve (2011 in case you were wondering). L/N 42 was to have flown on Dec. 13th and it is still not on the flightline as of yet. L/N 41 is supposed to fly on the 16th of December.

Additionally, it was revealed that Boeing has penciled in three 787 deliveries for next month. L/N 23 (JA822J, ZA177) will be the first 787 with GEnx-1B engines delivered to a customer. This airplane has just returned from San Antonio where it was undergoing change incorporation. It has received a new paint job (which has underwhelmed the aviation geek community) though I don't know if it has its customer interiors fitted as of yet. L/N 35 (VT-ANH, ZA236) for Air India is also due to be delivered in January. This airplane is supposed to start ETOPs/F&R testing in support of the certification test program for the GEnx powered 787s. According to Flightblogger, this airplane is to have it's first flight around the middle of December so far nothing yet. Lastly, L/N 40 (JA806A, ZA117) will also be delivered to ANA in January. This aircraft is still at EMC. Nothing is certain with these three airplanes and their delivery dates are dependent on getting the work done on them as well as finishing up ETOPS and F&R testing on the GEnx powerplant.

This is quite an ambitious schedule for the next two weeks for Boeing. They are still struggling with the amount of work that has to be done on the 24 or so 787s that are in Everett. Particularly vexing is the amount of work on the early build 787s. As I had mentioned before none these early build 787s are in EMC (yet) or in 40-24. They're all stacked up on the Everett flightline. Most of the deliveries are the late build models which don't require as much work. Even so, the amount of work is so daunting that Boeing is trying hard to get the late build 787s into the air and into the hands of customers. There is a rumor going around that Boeing is pulling people off the 747-8 airplanes that have to be prepared for delivery and putting them on 787. If so then 747 deliveries might fall as a consequence. Boeing has delivered 8 thus far and are planning to deliver 1-2 more 747s.

Time is running out if Boeing is to deliver even two 787s this month let alone 4.

787 update 12/1/2011

With all the excitement over yesterday's Boeing-IAM contract extension, there wa also news about the 787 that has come out and I would like to recap here.

787-GEnx certification

Boeing is still about 95% complete with 787-GEnx-1B certification testing according to Jim Albaugh who spoke at a Credit Suisse conference in NY yesterday. Certification testing using ZA005 and ZA006 are more or less complete according to Flightblogger, in a post on Nov. 29th. Additionally, he reported that ZA006 is getting some test equipement removed pior to be sent to San Antonio for refurbishment into a customer aircraft. If the change incorporation being done on production aircraft is any indication then this work on ZA006 is likely to take quite a bit of time to complete.

Boeing has done some of the F&R testing on the test aircraft but has to do the rest on a production standard aircraft. The 787 that has been tasked for this work is L/N 35 which is a 787 to be delivered to Air India. According to Flightblogger, first flight of this airplane has been delayed to around the middle of December owing to the slower pace of change incorporation on the 787s. Because of the delay in getting the needed aircraft, delivery of the first GEnx-1B 787 has slipped to January of 2012. The first one will be delivered to Japan Airlines, probably L/N 23, ZA177 which just returned form San Antonio after undergoing change incorporation work. Just yesterday the GEnx-1B engines received it ETOPS 330 certification however both the Trent and GEnx engines in combination with the 787 airframe won't be certified for ETOPS 330 until a fix to the fuel monitoring software is implemented, tested and certified by the FAA.

ZA004 - Trent Package "B" testing

According to Guy Norris, Boeing has completed certification testing for the Trent 1000 package "B" improvements for the 787. This will allow Boeing to finally start to deliver 787 with the new Trents which bring the specific fuel consumption to within 1% of the original promised specs. Boeing had undertaken this testing using ZA004. Over the last few weeks this airplane has been flown several times a day in order to finish up all the requirements. Once the FAA has received and approved all the test data, Boeing should be able to start delivering 787s with this engine. L/N 31 will be the first 787 to be delivered with the package "B" Trent 1000 engines.

Future deliveries

The pace of deliveries is obviously being didtaced by the pace of change incorporation which is excrutiatingly slow right now. The pace has already pushed the GEnx 787 deliveries out to January as well as deliveries to Trent 1000 customers further to the right. ANA was supposed to have received 5 787 in December...it will only receive two (L/N 31 and L/N 41). Both these airplanes are Trent 1000 package "B" airplanes. There are two other ANA 787s that have their engines attached and being prepped for delivery. These are L/N 9 (ZA102, JA804A) which was just pulled out to the Everett fuel dock and L/N 42 (ZA105, JA808A) which is still in front of the EMC.

These airplanes are not due to be delivered until after January 1st but there are now more 787s appearing on the flightline in preparation for delivery which is a good sign but on the flip side most of the aircraft that are out on the flightline are very early build airplanes that need extensive re-work done before they can be delivered to customer. Just to get these 11 airplanes (L/N 7 to L/N 19) done would probably take a good 2 years. Most of the deliveries will come from the late builds, particularly L/N 30 on up.

Production and Ramp Up

Jim Albaugh gave a nice update on the status of 787 production and ramp up. Currently they are are still at producing at 2.5 787 per month with the aim of ramping to 3.5 by around March or April and then to 5 by the end of 2012. Boeing is still maintaining it guidance of 10 787s per month by the end of 2013.

Albaugh had very good things to report about the North Charleston plant. The first aircraft from that line should deliver before June of 2012. The plant is capable of producing 2.5 787 per month right now. Boeing has now opened up the delivery center as well as the 787 interiors fabrication plant to supply bins, partitions, crew rest areas, etc. for the Charleston built 787s.

Test Flight Fleet

Now that test flights are nearing the end (at least for the 787-8), Boeing is starting to make plans for the first three airplanes built. ZA004-ZA006 will be refurbished and sold to customers (BBJ). Boeing has flown ZA001, the first 787, to Palmdale Airport where it will be in storage until they figure out which museum to house it in. Likely candidates are the Museum of Flight in Seattle or the Future of Flight museum in Everett though I wouldn't count out the NASM (National Air and Space Museum) in Virginia out. ZA002 is going to be in Charleston, SC for some time for testing purposes but its long term fate is unclear. ZA003 is due to start a 6 month tour of the 787 on December 5th. First stop is China an other Asian and African countries whose airlines have bought the 787. After the tour is completed the aircraft's long term fate is also undecided. No doubt there would be some testing to be done, particularly on engine and airframe improvements to lower weight and increase fuel efficiency and reduce the noise footprint. This is why ZA002 and ZA003 will probably held by Boeing for the foreseeable future to serve as test beds for these improvements.

787 production continues; Boeing draw first blood in Dubai

With Dubai 2011 underway, Boeing has drawn first blood with a huge order from Emirates.

But first some 787 tidbits.

Boeing sent two of it's 787 test planes on international marketing trips. ZA001 is flying to various 787 customer destinations to show the aircraft around the world. First stop is New Zealand where Air New Zealand is to induct the first 787-9 into it's fleet in a little over 2 years from now. It will go on to Australia from there where Jetstar and QANTAS will take delivery starting in 2013. ZA003 is now flying with a full passenger interior with the test workstations and other flight test equipment removed. It also is sporting a new paint job which is a hybrid of the Dreamliner livery that Boeing painted on ZA001.

Meanwhile, back in Boeing has pushed another 787 out the door and has reallocated several 787 to other airlines. L/N 50 and L/N 51 are currently on the final assembly floor and each has been reallocated to United and ANA respectively . They were to have gone to Ethiopian and LAN but were changed for unknown reasons. With the start of assembly on L/N 51 Boeing is on it's way of 2.5 787s per month with the target of 3.5 to occur sometime in early 2012.

One of the early build 787s appears to have completed the change incorporation and re-work. That airplane is L/N 23 (ZA177) which is destined for Japan Airlines. The aircraft took a check test flight on Nov. 11th and was ferried back to Everett on the 13th. It still does not have a customer interior but that work will be done in Everett along with testing of the interior and then Boeing and customer test flights prior to delivery. Given that work, Boeing can deliver this plane to JAL by the end of December or early January, 2012 depending on the remaining certification activities that need to be completed on the GEnx-1B powered 787. I am still maintaining my short term view that Boeing should be able to deliver 6 more 787 in December (no November deliveries). Most if not all these deliveries will be later production airplanes for ANA with a later production GEnx airplane added in.

Speaking of which, ZA006 continues F&R and ETOPS testing. Last word from Boeing was that GEnx-1B testing was 95% complete so I do anticipate that Boeing can complete all certification testing by the end of this month will the aim of having first delivery by the end of December to either JAL or Air India.





Dubai 2011


The Dubai Air Show got of to a bang with a huge order by Emirates for 50 777-300ERs. The bang not only came in the size of the order $18bn at list prices, or the fact that this is Boeing's largest commercial aircraft order by value or that it will make Emirates the largest user of the 777. The big bang came in the message this order sent to Airbus. It has been no secret that the market really hasn't accepted the A350-1000 as a viable competitor to the 777-300ER. The market response after launching the A350 coupled with the feeble attempt by Airbus and Rolls Royce to improve the aircraft earlier this year and the 2 year delay (with possibly more delays to come) has angered customers for the airplane, namely Qatar and Emirates. Thus this order at the start of the airshow was meant as a message to Airbus about the status of the A350-1000. Additionally, the A350-1000 is barely a better airplane than the Boeing offering but with the proposed 777-8X/9X (on which Emirates has been working closely with Boeing) thus this latest order would allow Emirates to easily introduce the next iteration of the 777 as this latest order is delivered towards the end of the decade. I wouldn't be surprised if Emirates has a conversion feature in the contract that allows them to convert to the newer model after Boeing launches the airplane with delivery aimed for 2020.


Airbus did get into the order column with an order for 50 A320NEOs from ALAFCO. This same lessor announced today that they sold 6 or their 787 orders to Oman Air. So this order with Oman is really a non-order order. Boeing is still adding more MoUs for the 737 MAX. The count is 700 airplanes spread across 9 customers with only American Airlines the only named customer of those 9. I don't expect any of these MoUs to be firmed before the end of the year but most if not all should be firmed by the end of 1st quarter 2012 in addition to any new customers that would have signed on by then.


Dubai 2011 Totals


Airbus


ALAFCO - 50 x A320NEO (+30 options)

Boeing

Emirates - 50 x 777-300ER (+20 options)

787 and 747-8: Coming to the finish line; delivery set for Aug./Sept. for 787

Boeing has for all intent and purposes declared that the finish line is insight for the 787-8 and 747-8F airplane flight tests and are preparing the gaggle of airplanes sitting at Everett Field for delivery to customers. These announcements came at Boeing Investor's Conference held on May 24th. Boeing program manager's also made revelations regarding the 787-8 and its future variants both in terms of new product development as well as production.

Flight Testing

787

Boeing confirmed that F&R and ETOPS testing will start in early June. Earlier I had reported a June 9th start date and that date looks to be solid. Functionality and reliability testing will test the aircraft as if it is in a commercial airline environment with simulating failures and other problems to see how the 787 will handle it. The test airplanes will be used but critical to this testing will be the use of ZA102, the ninth 787 built and recently re-worked to full production standard with all the necessary change incorporation modifications that were needed. This is the standard that all production 787 in which all will be delivered. So far the Rolls Royce powered 787s have completed 96% of required testing and the GEnx powered 787s are done with 75% of testing.

The FAA must issue an amended type inspection authorization (TIA) before Boeing can start F&R and ETOPs testing but that should happen soon. Thus far, of the 4,200 deliverables that needs to be completed for type certification of the Rolls powered 787, less than 150 remain to be done and of those less than 40 need to be submitted to the FAA directly. ETOPs certification will be accomplished on test points that need to be run and not the number of flight hours. Those test points will be run during the 300 hours needed for F&R testing thus both tasks will be tested concurrently.

As this required testing draws to a close, Boeing will send ZA002 during the week of July 4th to Japan for service ready validation operations (SRVO) where the airplane will be inducted into ANA's operations. This testing is to ensure that the 787 is ready for life as a passenger carrier and not a test airplane. ANA and Boeing will conduct fit checks with maintenance stands and jacks within the hangar, ground servicing operations, refueling and maintenance activities, as well as simulate operations between initial city pairs that ANA will fly the airplane on like Tokyo, Osaka, and Hiroshima. Read Boeing's statement:

Boeing and ANA to Conduct 787 Service Readiness Validation in Japan

-The first time the 787 will fly to Asia and Japan

TOKYO, May 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] and ANA today announced how the two companies will work together to help prove the 787 Dreamliner's readiness to enter service on a commercial basis. Using the second flight test aircraft, known as ZA002, they will simulate in-service operations across several airports in Japan in a service ready operational validation. The validation is expected to take place the week of July 4. Anticipated city pairs include trips between Haneda Airport in Tokyo and airports in Osaka (Itami and Kansai), Okayama and Hiroshima.
This will be the 787's maiden appearance in Japan. ANA is the launch customer for the aircraft and has 55 Dreamliners on order. The 787, which will be deployed across the ANA route network, is an integral part of ANA's strategy to strengthen its position and support its growth and expansion plans.

"ANA is eager to introduce the innovative 787 Dreamliner to Japan," said Shinichiro Ito, ANA president and chief executive officer. "Giving our employees the opportunity to gain experience with the airplane will help ensure a smoother entry into service later this year."

"We've put the airplane through its paces in a rigorous flight test program," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "Now, as we get closer to first delivery, we'll prove out its capabilities and reliability in a revenue-like environment."

ANA's maintenance crews also will practice maintenance and servicing of the 787 during the validation. This will include typical ground servicing activities, fit checks of airplane jacks and maintenance hangar stands, towing and refueling the airplane, and other routine maintenance operations. Watch this video to see how Boeing and ANA are planning for the validation.

Similar service ready validations have been conducted with great success on previous Boeing programs, including the 777, 737NG and 757-300.

Boeing plans to deliver the first 787 to ANA in the August to September timeframe.

After SRVO is completed along with ETOPs and F&R , Boeing will submit PSOC (program statement of compliance) which will allows the FAA to rule on type certification for the 787 and allow Boeing to deliver in August/September. My gut feeling is we can see first delivery around mid to late August after ETOPs and F&R testing is completed in mid to late July.

There was no word on testing for the GEnx powered 787 though Boeing is completed with 75% of testing. Boeing still has to announce when F&R and and ETOPs testing will start on ZA005 and ZA006 but I anticipate that Boeing will have to have on production GEnx powered 787 ready to support that testing. It could be ZA177 which is the 23rd 787 built and destined for Japan Airlines. It is currently undergoing rework and change incorporation at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. Still I would not completely rule out a production plane straight off the assembly line especially if it require very little work to get it ready for flight. Considering that carriers such as JAL, Air India and China Southern have ordered the GEnx-1B, Boeig will be under pressure
to finish up certification activities for the GEnx powered model. I wouldn't expect first delivery to JAL until October at the earliest. GE has received more orders for it's GEnx-1B engines to power the 787 than Rolls Royce has for the Trent 1000 engines.

747

Like the 787, the 747-8F is also nearing the end of its certification tests. It still has to conduct F&R testing and the the start of this testing is dependent on the FAA signing off on part of the Honeywell design flight management software and its readiness to conduct F&R testing. Still according to Guy Norris Boeing expects the start F&R testing around the end of May. To signify how far 747 testing has come, Boeing has sent one 747 test airplanes to Lackland AFB to undergo change incorporation and preparations for delivery. RC503 has been at Lackland AFB since May 13th for the required rework. Flight testing on the 747-8I continues and is currently well over 200 flight test hours between the two flight test aircraft. Boeing has said that the flight test program for the 747-8I will be about 600 flight test hour thus this program is already more than one third of the way through the flight testing hours that is needed.

Production

Boeing also addressed production rates at the conference. Currently, production of the 787 is at two per month. Interestingly, James Bell, Boeing CFO said that Boeing would have built 40 production standard 787s by the time the first one is delivered to ANA. Given that Boeing has just started work on the 35th production standard 787 and at the current pace of 2 per month, Boeing should be at number 40 around August. Boeing is being extremely cautious when it comes to increasing production rates, especially on the 787. They have stated that until they know that they can handle the next production increase without travelled work the rate won't increase. That said they are saying that the 787 production increase to 2.5 per month is expected to start later this summer (August/September in my opinion). Additionally Boeing North Charleston will come one line in July with the first 787 for United Airlines to be loaded in the tooling jig. With all the problems that Boeing has had with the production system, Boeing has indicated t hat they are prepared to move production of the horizontal stabilizer for the 787-9 from Alenia and back in house within Boeing at Seattle. This was in many way not unexpected given Alenia's performance on the HTP for the 787-8. However, Boeing may need to negotiate the move of that work from Italy to Seattle with Alenia as it is Alenia that owns the design though it is unclear if the current agreement between the two firms extended to the 787-9. This tale (pun intended) is not over.

Future 787 Variants

Boeing has always left the option of building variants of the 787 including the larger 787-10 (now known as the 787-10X). During the conference Boeing, while not outright launching the 787-10X has given strong indications that they intend to do so. They plan on a stretch of about 6m which would accommodate an additional 43 passengers over the 787-9 which can carry 290 passengers. This would squarely put it in competition with the A350-900 and can possibly be seen as a replacement for the 777-200 and possibly the 777-200ER. The expected range is going to be less than that of the 787-9 due to keeping the same wing as the -9 variant. James Albaugh, head of BCA said of the -10X, "I believe this will be an airplane we will probably do."

Ch...ch...ch...changes

ZA177 in San Antonio for Change Incorporation (Boeing Photos)

After flying ZA177 (LN 23 for Japan Air Lines) down to San Antonio (Lackland Air Force Base) last week, Boeing is now ready to start the process of change incorporation into the built 787s as well as incorporating the needed changes back into the supply chain.

First a little background. Throughout the testing and certification program (either ground test or flight tests) for the 787, Boeing and the FAA identified changes that needed to be made to the 787s in order for them to be certified to carry passengers. These changes can be numerous and each task can take anywhere from a few minutes to weeks to complete. The added complexity is that each task has to be undertaken in a certain order so as not to duplicate any disassembly tasks as well as not to cause any damage to the aircraft. The airplanes will not receive the customer interiors (seats, galleys, IFE, etc.) in San Antonio. That work will be done in Everett after the change incorporation process is completed.

Boeing said that a total of 6 787s will go through change incorporation in San Antonio including the last 3 787 flight test aircraft (ZA004, ZA005, and ZA006) which will be refurbished for delivery to unannounced customers. Boeing has not identified the other production 787 that will undergo change incorporation in San Antonio but has said that they send additional 787 to San Antonio for change incorporation work as they see the need. The other airplanes that are not flown to San Antonio will have work done at Everett. Currently Boeing has 35 787s assembled or are in the process of final assembly bu change incorporation will only occur on LN 4 and later. Currently that is 32 airplanes. As modifications are identified and the detailed engineering and design changes are finalized, they will be incorporated back though the final assembly process and into the supply chain (at least that's the plan). It is not known how long each aircraft will take in change incorporation. Here's Boeing's press release:

Boeing Begins Change Incorporation Work on 787 Dreamliner

787 program continues steady progress toward certification and delivery

EVERETT, Wash., March 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Boeing (NYSE: BA) began change incorporation work on the 787 Dreamliner at Boeing's Global Services & Support site in San Antonio, Texas. Airplane #23, the first 787 to undergo change incorporation, on Friday flew from Everett, Wash., to San Antonio on a ferry flight. During change incorporation, airplanes that are not part of flight test are configured to conform with the standards established as part of type certification efforts. Refurbishment of three of the six 787 flight test airplanes also will take place in San Antonio after completion of flight test activities.

"The 787 team is thrilled to have the expertise and enthusiasm of the San Antonio team focused on getting these airplanes ready for delivery to our customers," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program.

The current plan is for six Dreamliners to complete change incorporation and refurbishment in San Antonio. Three will complete change incorporation and three airplanes will be refurbished after flight test is complete. However, the plan is flexible and could accommodate additional 787 production needs as flight test is completed and airplanes are prepared for delivery. The work will be performed from March 2011 through 2013.

"We continuously look for ways to leverage the strength of the Boeing enterprise, taking advantage of the team and the skills we have across the company," said Fancher. "San Antonio specializes in modification work and has the capability and capacity to get the job done. The team was a natural choice."

Some of the work done in San Antonio will include installing electronic and mechanical equipment, completing software upgrades, testing functional systems, and removing and reworking wiring or equipment that needs to be updated to current configuration requirements. Approximately 450 employees will be hired on a temporary basis to join with 1,700 experienced workers at the site to complete the work.

"Everyone on our team is excited to join the 787 program," said Kevin Devine, vice president and general manager of the San Antonio site. "This airplane is about as advanced as you can get and there are high expectations tied to this work package. I am confident that our team will get the job done."

Currently, there are about 1,500 employees at Boeing's San Antonio site performing maintenance and modification work on the following programs: KC-135 Programmed Depot Maintenance, KC-135 Global Air Traffic Management, C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership and the C-130 Avionics Modernization program.

There are other changes coming to the 787 flight test fleet...actually just one airplane. ZA004, which was to have the package "B" Trent 1000 engines installed last month will now have those engines installed between March 18th and April 6th.


Lastly, the 787 flight test fleet went over the 3,100 flight test hour mark yesterday when ZA003 completed a 2 hour and 10 minute test flight. It is epected that ETOPS testing should begin late this month and carry on into July.

Flightblogger: First 787 delivery in September

Flightblogger, citing industry sources, says that Boeing will deliver the first 787 to ANA in September. During today's conference call Boeing reiterated it's intention to ramp up 787 output to 10/month by the end of 2013 for the current 2/month. Additionally, Boeing is saying that it will deliver roughly 20 787s this year though at this point it is unknown which 787s will be delivered though Flightblogger says ZA100, ZA101, and ZA102 (currently flying) are candidates to for delivery this year along with ZA177. Certainly I feel that most of the 787s delivered this year will go to ANA but a few will probably also be delivered to JAL and Air India is Boeing can manage 20 deliveries. As it stands about 20 to 25 787s need extensive re-work and Boeing has to devote significant resources to get these airplanes flight ready.

Also a very important question has been answered...Boeing will deliver the 787 with ETOPS certification though that certification work will have to wait after a permanent fix to the electrical issues that ZA002 encountered in November has to be implemented before that testing can proceed.

In other news Flightblogger also reported that ZA005 will be heading down to La Paz, Bolivia for high altitude take off and landing test after conducting similar tests at sea level in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico.

You can read Flightbloggers two informative posts here:

Flightblogger: Sources: ANA to see its first 787 in September

Flightblogger: 787 heads south for the winter in search of high and low ground

ZA002 to fly back to Boeing Field, Boeing still expects to issues new schedules in the next several weeks

Boeing spokesperson Lori Gunter issued a press release saying that ZA002, the 787 that had been damaged in a fire almost a month ago, has been repaired and is scheduled to return to Boeing Field soon. Boeing did not give a specific date but Flightaware shows that ZA002 will be flying back today. Boeing had fully repaired the aircraft and performed ground test to validate the repairs. There won't be any flight test activities performed on the airplane during the ferry flight back to Boeing Field.

Flightaware ZA002 track

Here's Boeing's press release:

ZA002 Returning to Seattle

Boeing has readied ZA002, the 787 flight test airplane that experienced an electrical fire on Nov. 9, to be flown from Laredo, Texas, to Seattle. Maintenance technicians replaced the damaged P100 power distribution panel, repaired damage to interior composite structure and installed new insulation material.
The team in Laredo, Texas, has completed a series of ground test operations and
inspections to validate the repairs. The flight, which is expected to occur soon, will not include test operations.

In related news Boeing Commercial Airplane chief, James Albaugh said that Boeing still has more work to do in order to finalize plans for the necessary modifications and fix to the power distribution system and then develop a schedule based on that and probably other considerations in the program. Albaugh is saying that there will be a schedule slip which is expected but has not yet said how long that slip would be. His comments were to Reuters. You can read the article by clicking HERE.

Still all this is not sitting well with customers for the 787. ANA is demanding a new schedule as well as details about the problem that caused the fire and subsequent power problems. Qatar Airways has called the 787 a "failed" program though it seems that they're still holding on to their order for 30 787s. China Eastern Airlines is saying that they will cancel their order for 15 787s though Shanghai Airlines, which is owned by China Eastern, has not said if they too will cancel.

It is too early to tell if customers will stick with Boeing and the 787 until the revised schedule is out.

Still Boeing is still continuing with production with the 31st 787 to be loaded into position 1 today or tomorrow. This airplane, ZA117, is destined for ANA. ZA178 which is for Japan Airlines will be rolled out to the paint hangar.

Ground test continue to be performed on the 787 test flight fleet in lieu of flight tests as well. Boeing is also making progress in terms of getting the other 787s ready for flight tests and delivery. As had been reported earlier, a 787 destined for Japan Airlines received it's GEnx-1B engines this past weekend and one of the production 787 that will undertake flight/ground testing was rolled out to the flightline. I had reported that this airplane was ZA102 but it might be ZA101 which is to take part in ground tests though I'm working to try and confirm which aircraft is actually out on the flightline.

Flightblogger reported today that production airplanes will be flown to San Antonio, Texas where they will go through the change incorporation program prior to being delivered. Flightblogger is reporting that the Japan Airlines 787 (ZA177) will be the 3rd or 4th 787 to be delivered. It seems that now production airplanes are starting to get their powerplants in preparation for the flights to San Antonio though when these airplanes will be flown will be determined by the new schedule that Boeing should put out in the next several weeks.

Flightblogger: Repairs complete in Laredo, ZA002 to return home to Seattle

Lastly, I am still standing by my earlier prediction of a three month delay for 787 deliveries.

787 News

Last night Boeing moved both ZA006 and ZA531 (LN 16) for LAN out of building 40-24. ZA531 was moved to stall 105 on the Boeing flightline and ZA006 was moved to the paint hangar 45-04.

Also yesterday, the main fuselage for ZA177 (LN 23) and the wings for ZA116 (LN 24) arrived into Everett. All the major parts are now in building 40-26 and will be moved into position late Sunday night/early Monday morning. There will be a line move tomorrow where ZA100 (LN 7) will be moved out to building 40-24 (Later ZA1001 will be moved into the same building).

There is an unconfirmed rumor that I'm working to verify that ZA005 will fly as early as Monday, June 14th. Stay tuned ad I hope to have more information on this soon.

Lastly, Matt Cawby got pictures and video of G-STBA, the first 777-300ER for British Airways coming out of the Boeing paint hangar.

Matt Cawby's Blog Posting - June 11, 2010

Matt Cawby's BLog Posting June 12, 2010

787 Production Movement

Boeing is preparing to restart final assembly on the 787s by June 14th but until then there will be movement of currently assembled airframes around Paine Field.

To start ZA006 the last test flight aircraft and the second to be equipped with the GEnx-1B engines will be pulled out of building 40-24 tomorrow night and taken out to the Boeing flightline to be prepared for its first flight expected around July 13th.

ZA100 (LN 7) will be moved out of building 40-26 on Sunday June 13th and will be placed inside 40-24.

After the line move ZA101 will occupy position 4, ZA102 will occupy position 3 and ZA115 (LN 22) will be moved to position 2 all inside building 40-26. This will make room at position 1 for ZA177 (LN 23) to start final assembly on June 14th.

ZA005 will conduct its first flight on June 16th and will create on empty spot on the flightline (their going to need it)

After a couple of weeks, there will be another line move with ZA101 being moved to 40-24 on June 27th. The aircraft that are in 40-26 will be moved one position to make room for ZA116 (LN 24) to start final assembly on June 28th.

After about another two weeks there will be another move with ZA102 being moved out directly to the flightline on July 12th. On July 13th ZA230 (LN 25) will start final assembly.

Interestingly when Boeing put the temporary halt into effect ZA175 and ZA176 were moved into the ATS Hangar and they will remain there. The aircraft are not finished and I think Boeing will probably finish them at ATS.

Lastly, all the completed 787s and 747-8 are going out to the flightline without engines and interiors. This is so Boeing will not have to pay the suppliers for these items until they're needed to be installed which is closer to their first flight dates.

Boeing restarts 787 part deliveries into Everett

As I had reported last week, Boeing will restart 787 final assembly on Monday, June 14th. This is reinforced with the restart of LCF flights bringing the required fuselage sections into Everett. Yesterday and LCF flew in the rear fuselage for the next 787 to be built...ZA177 (LN 23) for Japan Airlines and horizontal stabs for Air India's first 787, ZA230 (LN 25). Later this afternoon, the forward fuselage will be flown from Wichita to Everett. There should be a line move late this weekend to allow parts for the 23rd 787 to be located in the assembly tool in building 40-26.

Flight Test

ZA002 flew a 2 hour and 35 minute mission this morning (June 8th) out of Victorville. In completing this test flight, the 787 test fleet has completed over 30% of the required 3,100 test flight hours for the program. ZA005 continues its gauntlet testing ahead of a planned first flight on June 16th.

End of May 787 Update

Not too much to update here but what I lack in quantity I hopefully make up in quality!

787 flight testing slowed down this past weekend (Memorial Day Weekend) with only one airplane flying, ZA002. This airplane surpassed 250 flight hours this past weekend. ZA001 is swapping out it's Trent 1000 engines and is about midway through that exercise. It is not, as far as I have learned, a swap out of the Trent package "A" engines (which was what this aircraft has been flying with since December) with the improved package "B" engines. The fourth 787, ZA004 will receive the improved package "B" Trent 1000 in September. The package "B" engines is supposed to deliver a specific fuel consumption that is within 1% of what was promised to customers. These engines incorporates design improvements to get that fuel consumption close to what is contractually promised by Rolls Royce. ZA004 is receiving some APU updates and additional instrumentation and ZA003 was given the weekend off for the Holidays. The 787 test fleet has flown the most hours in the program during the past one month, logging over 330 hours spread across over 100 flights. The per flight utilization also went up to 3.2 hours per flight. Most of this is attributed to ZA004 performing Nautical Air Miles Testing over the eastern Pacific just west of the Baja Peninsula.

To date the 787 test fleet has accumulated over 880 flight test hours during more than 280 flights.

Coming up

So far so good with flight testing. ZA002 flew to Victorville this morning (June 1) and is joining ZA004 in flight test duties. The two airplanes will be testing independent of one another. ZA002 will undertaking NGS (nitrogen generating system) tests as well as some other small testing duties.

ZA005 is still scheduled to fly around June 16th and ZA006 will be flying around July 13th.

On the production front, look for LN 23 to start final assembly around June 14th. Boeing held up final assembly of 787s for one month to allow the supply chain to get caught up in work instead of sending the fuselage sections to Everett along with travelled work. Look for parts for this airplane to start arriving next week though some parts are already in for this airplane.

Lastly, I asked Boeing about sending the 787 to the Farnborough Air Show. They said no decision has been made yet and it will depend on the progress of flight testing. They anticipate that a decision should be made closer to the time of the air show in mid July.

Boeing moves 787s around, final assembly activities temporarily stopped

Boeing has temporarily stopped final assembly activities on 3 787 in order that 3 other 787s that have completed the side of body modifications are finished.

In doing so, Boeing has towed ZA151 (LN19) to a spot on the Boeing flightline and took ZA175 (LN 20) and ZA 176 (LN 21) went into temporary storage at the ATS Hangar. In their place Boeing put ZA100 (LN 7) in building 40-26 position 4, ZA101 (LN 8) in position 3 and ZA102 (LN 9) in position 2. These planes all have undergone the side of body modifications. It is anticipated that these airplanes will be in 40-26 for a little bit more than a month. When Boeing is ready to resume production ZA100 will be moved to 40-24 (767 final assembly line) and the line will pulsed so that ZA177 (LN 23) can start final assembly. The two of the three booted airplanes will return to the assembly hall once the reassembly activities are completed on the three early build production airplanes. ZA151 will go to the paint hangar soon and ZA175 and ZA176 will return to 40-26 once the reassembly activities are completed.

In other news, ZA005 may finally light the GEnx-1B engines today. I'll post if that happens.

787 undertaking long duration flight tests

ZA004 has been engaged in long duration test flights over the last couple of days with two flights that lasted about 9 hours each. A source told me that these flights are performing steady state performance certification testing as well as laminar flow evaluations. ZA004 is in the air again today for another long duration test flight. The FAA is on board for these test flights. In other news, it is expected that ZA003 will be making the flight from Eglin Air Force Base to San Antonio for further hot condition environmental testing. It has successfully completed the testing at the McKinley Climatic Laboratory.

Lastly, Randy Tinseth put up a blog post addressing the temporary suspension of part deliveries into Everett. Boeing is delaying the shipping of the next two 787s (LN 23 and LN 24) due to parts shortages going into the suppliers.

Randy Tinseth : Temporary adjustment to 787 supplier deliveries