Boeing delivers an anemic 5 787s in November.

So you know how I said that I thought Boeing can deliver 10 to 12 787s last month...boy I didn't even come close.  Instead they delivered an anemic 5 aircraft last month despite all the activity with many of  the aircraft that are still parked in Everett and Charleston.  Boeing has maintained that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year an though the expectations was for a number closer to 68 tor 69 Boeing will still claim that they will have hit their target if all they deliver is 61 in 2013.  They would have met their guidance though I think it would have been a disappointment.

That said, I still do believe they can deliver 64 airplanes this year.  Thus far, Boeing has delivered 56 aircraft including 2 in December. They have the potential to deliver 8 more aircraft even though they can deliver just 5 more and meet their guidance. 

Lately Boeing has been running a few test flights on two frames built in Charleston: ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) for China Southern Airlines and ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines.  I believe that these are final customer flights meant to wring out any further squawks that customer reps have found.  These airplanes should deliver soon but along with those I do expect further deliveries to Hainan, QANTAS (Jetstar) and the first 787 business jet to the UAE Presidential Flight.

Here's my list of expected 787 deliveries in December:

China Southern - 2 aircraft - ZA386 and ZA381
Hainan Airlines - 2 aircraft - ZA432 and ZA435
Japan Airlines - 1 aircraft - ZA187
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 2 aircraft - ZA216 and ZA217
UAE Presidential Flight (leased from ILFC) - 1 aircraft - ZA560

787-9
787-9 seems to be making fairly good progress and the flight test program is slowly coming up on three full months of flight testing. It is expected that the flight test/certification program will continue for another 3 to 4 months and first delivery to Air New Zealand should occur around July 2014.  The first production 787-9 (ZB197) was rolled out of 40-26 on November 20th and placed inside the Everett Modification Center (EMC).  This aircraft will deliver to ANA probably later in the summer.  The second production aircraft and the first to deliver to the launch customer is ZB003 is still a couple months away from starting final assembly but both these airplanes will be used for F & R (functionality and reliability) testing as well as other FAA mandated tests which needs to be completed on a production standard aircraft.  The three flight test aircraft will be refurbished with 2 going to Air New Zealand and the 3rd (GE-powered) 787-9 flight test aircraft is rumored to be going to Japan Airlines.

Lastly, two 787 that were most recently rolled out the final assembly building in Everett were taken not to the flightline but to the EMC.  There was confusion related to this and many speculated that it is due to some "issues" that the 787 might be experiencing though nothing has come up that would warrant that kind of speculation.  The two aircraft are ZA586 which is another ILFC leased business jet and ZB197, the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA that will be used for testing.  First ZA586 is probably there to get some specialized work down related to its cabin installation after delivery.  Nothing unusual there.  ZB197 is not needed for another couple months and will probably have some minimal flight test equipment installed.  Either way I don't think it's a sign of anything amiss in the 787 program.

Full 787 List

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787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

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Current 787 Operators

 

Boeing increases 787 flight tempo to make a push for November month end deliveries

This past weekend, Boeing flew a number of 787s in a push to deliver them by the end of the month which will be shortened by the Thanksgiving Holiday.  Boeing had to fly a number of B flights as well as functional check flights (FCF) on several aircraft before proceeding with customer test flights. The increased temp in the last three days indicated that Boeing wants to deliver these airplanes relatively soon. Several flights were performed on aircraft destined for Hainan (2), Jetairfly (TUI), Air India, and Norwegian Air Shuttle.  On Friday, Boeing performed test flights on two 787s for China Southern.  I don't think these two are ready for delivery and may require more test flights this week.  Boeing can still deliver 787s for the first 3 days of this week and on Friday after Thanksgiving  Here's the ones that I think should deliver this week:

Norwegian (ZA650, LN 136, EI-LNC)
Japan Airlines (ZA187, LN 125, JA833J)
TUI (Jetairfly) (ZA327, LN 137, OO-JDL)
Hainan Airlines - 2 - (ZA432, LN 79, B-2729) and (ZA435, LN 131, B-2731)
China Southern Airlines - 2 - (ZA381, LN 36, B-2726) and (ZA386, LN 104, B-2737)

All of these airplanes have flown a comparable number of test flights compared to those previously delivered to the same airline.  If these airplanes are not delivered this week then more than likely the delivery will be made next week.  If Boeing can deliver even 5 of these airplanes this week, it will be a very good month for them delivery wise.

Since Boeing has increased the production rate to 10/month, they're under increasing pressure to move airplanes off the flightlines and into customer hands lest the production 787s start to crowd the Everett and Charleston tarmac again.

For next month I don't see it being much of a stretch for Boeing to deliver 10 to 11 787s in a push to pad the year end numbers.  During the next 36 days (between now and year end) I can see Boeing pushing out 2 more 787s from Charleston and 6 more from Everett (including one that will pull out by the end of November). Most of these will be delivered in January.  At Everett, ZA188 (LN 152) will be the last aircraft to go to the flightline this year to prepare for delivery.  At Charleston ZA294 (LN 145, N26910) will be the last one to be pulled out of 88-30.  Of course, Boeing may surprise us and also pull out ZA564 (LN 155) and ZA447 (LN 156) for a total of 10 787s in December.

My final number for 787 deliveries for 2013 is 66 plus or minus 2.

Full 787 List

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787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

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Current 787 Operators

 

787 Production Rate Steadily Increasing

The 787 production rate is steadily increasing as Boeing looks to load a new 787 into the assembly tooling in the two assembly bays at Everett once every 7 days (at least for the next one month).  ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for Polish LOT is due to load into position 1 in 40-26 on Oct. 11.  One week later on Oct. 18, ZA273 (LN 87, SP-LRD) also for LOT will load in position 1 in 40-24.  Finally on Oct. 25 ZA274 (LN 88, SP-LRE) will load in position 1 in 40-26. This rate (excluding Charleston built 787s) is about 4 per month.  Charleston looks to be running at about 0.66 airplanes every month (2 airplanes every 3 months) though it is expected that they will hit one per month shortly.  Given these rates, Boeing is very close, if not already there, at producing 787s at a rate of 5/month.

The issues facing them is now clearing the backlog both at Everett and Charleston. Between the two delivery centers there are 16 787s that are ready for pre-flight or are into their test flight activities.  Boeing has already delivered 3 787s this month but tentatively have 9 more deliveries scheduled between Oct. 18 and Oct. 26th. It is possible for these 9 aircraft to be delivered but it is all dependent on both factors that are within Boeing's control (technical issues, allocation of resources needed to prepare and test fly the assembled 787s) as well as factor's out of Boeing's control (dealing with mercurial customers such as Air India, Qatar Airways and the country of China).  Several handovers should be a no brainer: Ethiopian Airlines (2), United Airlines (1), ANA (1) and LAN (1).  That is 5 airplanes right there.  The ones that are questionable are Qatar Airways (2), Air India (1) and Hainan Airlines (1), and China Southern (1). With the Chinese carriers, the issue is the certification from CAAC (China's Civil Aviation Authority).  It is unknown what the issues despite FAA and EASA certification.  CAAC has to certify the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.

Lastly, Boeing has pulled out two 787s from 40-26.  ZA271 (LN 78 (SP-LRB) for Polish LOT went to the paint hangar at Everett and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines was pulled out to the 40-51 ramp area. Given the extended time that these two airplanes spent in final assembly I expect that there are very few to no assembly tasks remaining on these frames.  Additionally ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA conducted taxi runs but could not perform its first flight due to weather consideration as Boeing has stringent weather requirements for B-1 flights.

787 Production Update and 1st 787 Delivery from Charleston

Boeing is continuing to make steady progress in pushing out new and re-worked 787 during this past week.

In the EMC, ZA287 (LN 52, N20903) for United went inside the EMC hangar from a spot on the EMC ramp to continue the change incorporation process. With the reshuffling that went on inside th hangar, ZA286 (LN 50, N20902), also for United, went to the paint hangar and will start the pre-flight program at Everett. 

Boeing has completed the first 787 to go through the surge line though I'm still trying to get a handle on the location.  Currently I believe that ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC), for LAN, is in 40-26 position 4 for final assembly activities and aqueous wash but should be going to paint very soon.  The other 787 in paint is ZA290 (LN 77, N20906), again another United Dreamliner but that should be coming out of paint very soon thus making way for ZA538. I don't have information on where ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) for LOT Polish Airlines and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines currently after the line move in 40-24.  Boeing has loaded ZA183 (LN 84, J8829J) for Japan Airlines into position 1 on 40-24 surge line to start final assembly.

At Charleston, ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) finally saw daylight and was rolled out of the final assembly building last Sunday (Sept. 30) to start pre-flight in advance of its eventual delivery to Air India.  Brendan Kearney of the Post and Courier also reported that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) also for Air India and the next Charleston built 787 to be delivered should be returning from Ft. Worth where it was being painted by this weekend. With the line move, Boeing has 4 787 in assembly at the Charleston plant with another 3 on the flightline going through pre-flight or pre-delivery.  It is anticipated that Air India should take delivery of another Charleston built 787 late this month but that is all dependent on the internal situation at Air India and the issues it confronts in dealing with the Government of India.

Speaking of Air India, again, Boeing did make delivery to Air India of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the first 787 built at Charleston.  While the milestone was notable so was the fact that this was a very low key delivery ceremony possibly arising out of the tortured path and bad feelings in arriving at this moment.  No big speeches by politicians or dignitaries at this delivery ceremony.  We'll see how future delivereis to Air India goes but rumor has it that Air India needed bridge financing for this airplane so I have to wonder how smooth future deliveries to this airline will be. Here's Boeing's Press Release on today's delivery:

Boeing Delivers First South Carolina-built 787 Dreamliner

Historic delivery to Air India begins a new chapter of Boeing airplane production in region

NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C., Oct. 5, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today marked a historic milestone with delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner built at its North Charleston, S.C., facility to Air India.   

The delivery continues the momentum of the 787 Dreamliner's entry into revenue service by customers globally and marks the beginning of a new era of commercial airplane production in South Carolina.

"Within just three years of breaking ground, we have flown and delivered our first airplane built at Boeing South Carolina," said Jack Jones, vice president and general manager, Boeing South Carolina. "This is a tribute to the remarkable Boeing South Carolina team and the support we have received from our airline customers, our supplier partners and the Boeing enterprise, as well as the relationship we have with the State of South Carolina."

Work on the Boeing South Carolina Final Assembly and Delivery Center began in November 2009. Production of the first South Carolina-built 787 began in mid-2011 and the completed airplane rolled out of the factory in April.

Boeing South Carolina fabricates, integrates and assembles the midbody and aftbody fuselage sections for all 787 Dreamliners. Completed sections are joined in South Carolina Final Assembly, or transported via the Dreamlifter to 787 Final Assembly in Everett, Wash.

"We're delighted to be the first airline in the world to take delivery of a Dreamliner from this beautiful factory and look forward to taking many more," said Air India Board Member K.M. Unni. "The 787 is an airplane with unmatched efficiency and technology, which will help in our airline's turnaround plan."

Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president of Asia Pacific and India Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, praised Boeing's long, successful partnership with Air India, including delivery in September of its first two of 27 Dreamliners. "With two 787s successfully introduced to Air India's fleet, passengers are enjoying breakthrough features such as larger windows, lower cabin altitude and unprecedented flying experience," said Keskar.

Today's delivery marks the 28^th 787 Dreamliner delivered to date. Boeing South Carolina will increase final assembly production to three 787s per month by the end of 2013.
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is the first commercial jetliner made primarily of advanced composite materials. It offers exceptional passenger comfort features, including cleaner air, a lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, bigger windows that dim electronically and more overhead storage space. Airlines appreciate its fuel efficiency, which is 20 percent better than other airplanes in its class and results in 20 percent lower carbon emissions.

787 production update

Not much has changed in the last few weeks.  Boeing seems to working the change incorporation program in reverse numerical order with airplanes 10 to 19 seemingly slated to be be the last batch to go through the EMC.

Boeing did get one 787 (for Ethiopian) done with change incorporation but that aircraft, ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP), is now back at the EMC. Over the last couple of days, media reports said that there is a second 787 that had a cracked fan mid-shaft. I believe that this Ethiopian Dreamliner is that aircraft and is back at the EMC to have a replacement engine fitted.  Once this airplane has cleared out I expect that ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern will take its place to begin change incorporation.

Boeing did move ZA260 (LN 39, ET-AOO) to the EMC to start the change incorporation process in the meantime. Also a litle interesting is that two airplanes on the final assembly line seemed to have switched places.  ZA432 (LN 79) for Hainan Airlines and ZA271 (LN 78) for LOT Polish Airlines were in positions 3 and 4 respectively in building 40-26.  Now they seemed to have reversed positions.  The only reason I can think of is that Boeing may not have space and wanted to complete work on the Hainan Dreamliner before rolling both airplanes out to the flightline to start pre-flight.  Currently in 40-26 there are 4 airplanes occupying all four assembly positions as well as one 787 in 40-24 occupying the first assembly position on the surge line in that building. I do expect to see a line move early next week.

Lastly, I can't confirm if any more 787s have been delivered in the last couple of days but evidence does point to Air India taking delivery either tomorrow (Sunday, Sept. 30) or Monday (Oct. 1) of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the 1st 787 built by the Boeing Charleston team.  Rumor has it that Jim McNerney will be there to celebrate the first 787 (really the first Boeing commercial airplane) built outside of the Puget Sound region.  It will be more of a celebration of that fact rather than a celebration of Air India receiving another 787.  A second Charleston built 787 left this afternoon for Ft. Worth to be painted joining an Everett built 787 for Ethiopian already there. I expect the Ethiopian Dremaliner to fly back in the next 2-3 days and the Air India 787 to return to Charleston in the next 10-14 days.