Showing posts with label Crystal Cruises. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crystal Cruises. Show all posts

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Boeing delivers 11 787 in March while first 787-10 takes to the air as the quarter ends.

Production Snapshot
Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett188
To be assembled in Charleston142
Parts Arriving
6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work2
Pre-Flight Prep8
Production Testing3
Non Customer Flight Tests2
Ready for Delivery5
Donation3
Delivered532
TOTAL902

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo

Boeing Photo






The first quarter of 2017 was a busy period for the 787 program and time highlighted by the very successful first flight of the 787-10 yesterday at quarter end.  To the details of the quarter....

For the month of March, 2017 Boeing delivered 11 Dreamliners (4 x 787-8s and 7 x 787-9s) including the 200th 787-9 to be delivered to a customer. However two of these deliveries aren't confirmed: 1 787-8 ZD009 (LN 17, N947BA) left for Victorville to be stored but left under a Boeing flight number.  This aircraft was supposed to be delivered to Crystal Cruises who is now trying to sell it.  So far there aren't any buyers and is the second 787 that is up for sale.  The other 787 delivery in doubt is ZB703 (LN 533, HZ-AR11) for Saudi Arabian Ministry of Finance (leased to Saudi Arabian Airlines).  The aircraft was supposed to be delivered on March 30th but it is still parked on the Charleston flightline.  We'll know more about these two 787s when Boeing reveals its monthly order and delivery results hopefully on April 6th.  For the quarter, Boeing has delivered 32 787s (8 x 787-8s and 24 x 787-9s).  Total program deliveries stand at 532 (332 x 787-8, 200 x 787-9).  Boeing has delivered the 200th 787-9 to the Saudi Ministry of Finance which is leasing the aircraft to Saudi Arabian Airlines.  This is the aforementioned ZB703.

Production is going smoothly with Boeing rolling out 12 787s (including the second test flight 787-10) during this month and starting assembly on a further 13 787s.  Production efficiency declined due to lower deliveries in March.  In fact for the quarter  while the production rate was more or less on target deliveries were lower.  This is attributable to the introduction of the 787-10 into the production system.  Boeing transferred some 787 production aircraft to Everett from Charleston to mitigate production risk but it looks like Boeing can't transfer all of the Charleston 787 production thus deliveries fell.  During the 1st quarter, Charleston rolled out 12 787 (should be around 15) while delivering 10 (again vs. 15).  Everett, as I mentioned, picked up the slack in production (but not all of it) because of the 787-10 and rolled out 20 (vs. 24) and delivered 22 (vs. 28 including 2 early build deliveries). Production efficiency for March was 1.09 (an efficiency rating of 1 or lower is desirable as it shows declining inventory - roll outs vs. deliveries.  Charleston had a March efficiency ratio of 1.33 while Everett was 1.0.  Again this is all due to the introduction of the 787-10 into production and I expect that this will continue into early May until ZC002 (the third and last 787-10 flight test aircraft) has been rolled out from final assembly.

March deliveries were not all that interesting except for the two early build 787-8s (ZD007 and ZD009 and the 787-9 for the UAE Presidential (VIP) Flight.  For April, I believe that Boeing is targeting another 11 deliveries (3 x 787-8, 8 x 787-9).  This batch should include another early build 787-8 (ZD008) which will again go to Ethiopian Airlines as well as Air France's first direct purchased 787-9, they are currently operating 1 787-9 leased from AerCap.  Additionally, American Airlines will receive the last 787-8 that they have on order.

787-10
By far the most important event in the 787 program during the past quarter was the first flight of ZC001 (LN 528, N528ZC) the first 787-10.  I've included a few Boeing photos as well as embedded a couple of videos from that flight on March 31st.  The flight began much earlier than I anticipated, 9:38AM due to bad weather rolling in soon after.  The flight lasted 4 hours and 57 minutes and landed back at Charleston International Airport at about 2:35PM.  After landing the pilots reported no squawks and had run through the whole list of tests that they needed to perform as well as a few get ahead tasks.  The plan is for Boeing test pilots to fly ZC001 to Boeing Field late next week (I'm guessing next Friday) where it will be based for the remainder of the test flight program as will the other two test flight airplanes.  ZC036, the next 787-10 to fly and the first with GE engines is already on the Charleston flightline going through ground tests and I anticipate that this airplane will probably fly by the end of this month.  ZC002 will start final assembly by end of this week and I believe it should roll out by the end of the first week of May and join the flight test program around early June.  The 787-10 flight test and certification program should last about a year and there will be additional production ready 787-10 that will perform functionality and readiness testing (F & R)  similar to the 787-8 and 787-9 test programs.

Speaking of the flight test program, I will be attempting to track the flight test hours of the 787-10 flight test fleet similar to what I had done with the 787-8 and 787-9.  This is mainly keeping track of flight test as they're reported on FlightAware.com and flightradar24.com.  I will be keeping these logs on the spreadsheets in a tab called "787-10 Flight Test Hours."  You can view these spreadsheets through the link below.

787 Spreadsheets

I will also be posting updates to the test flight program on the blog as they become available.

Thursday, March 2, 2017

March production and delivery schedule for 787

With the 1st two months of the year in the books, Boeing is looking to finish out the 1st quarter in strong fashion.

Delivery wise, Boeing is hoping to deliver 11 787s. Some planned notable deliveries include early build 787-8s to Ethiopian and to a yet to be determine customer who is buying the air frame once bought by Crystal Cruises.  I must stress the deliveries are tentative as we have seen in the past that sometime they just don't occur.  ZD007 (LN 16, ET-ATH) was supposed to be delivered at the end of February and now it is scheduled to be delivered at the end of March.  ZD009 (LN 17) was going to be taken up by Crystal Cruises until they found out it was too small for their use.  They may have found a buyer but it is still unknown who or even if there is a new buyer.

The UAE government will be taking its second 787 and first 787-9 for Presidential/VIP duties in March. Other than that it will be a ho hum affair with deliveries to usual suspects like Saudi Arabian (2), Avianca (1), American (1), JAL (1), Air Canada (1), Virgin Atlantic (1) and Norwegian (1).  Six of the eleven have had their B-1 and one 787-8 (for Avianca) has had it customer flights.  The remaining 5 should have their first flight by March 15th.  Most deliveries (9 of 11) should occur in the second half of the month. Deliveries in March will heavily favor Everett as they should deliver 8 787 while Charleston will deliver 3.  This is due to the introduction of the 787-10 into final assembly thus mandating the need to have some production frames moved to Everett so as not to disrupt assembly of customer aircraft.

Production for the first half of March should see 6 787s start final assembly with another 6 rolling out by mid March.

Lastly, I'm hearing that the 787-10 should make its maiden flight by the end of the month.  March 31st is penciled in for the first flight date but I'll you all know as soon as I can get more clarity on this date.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

787 3rd quarter 2016 deliveries come in at 36 while rolling out 30 aircraft

Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett162
To be assembled in Charleston115
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly9
Storage0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work4
Pre-Flight Prep5
Production Testing9
Non Customer Flight Tests1
Ready for Delivery3
Donation3
Delivered467
TOTAL787

Boeing finished the 3rd quarter with 12 787 deliveries in September and a quarterly delivery total of 36.  For the year to the end of 3Q16 Boeing has delivered 104 Dreamliners and 467 since program deliveries commenced 5 years ago.  Boeing needs to make 30 more deliveries to achieve 500 program deliveries to paying customers (they delivered 3 thus far in October) thus they have to average 11 deliveries per month during 4Q2016 in order to achieve this goal prior to year end.  Right now I estimate that they will deliver at least 35 in the 4th quarter.






Production is recovering after the summer slowdown in August. Boeing rolled out 10 787s in September while delivering 12. The efficiency ratio for the 787 program as a whole was 0.83.  Both Charleston and Everett delivered more 787s than they rolled out last month.  I expect the efficiency ratio won't be as good in October owing to a few more airframes rolling out but the number of airplanes delivered should be around 12 to 13 Dreamliners.  5 have already been delivered (all 787-9s); 3 more have had their customer flights and 5 more (including one early build 787-8) need to have their customer flights flown.

However, Boeing's delivery plans for this month might be in doubt because of the temporary shut down of Boeing's Charleston final assembly line due to hurricane Matthew.  I believe that the plant has reopened since the closure on October 5th but I'm not sure of the impact to the schedule or how production has been affected.  Boeing will have to contend with some of its workers having been displaced due to damage to their houses, power outages or impassable streets that are still flooded.  Also it is unknown what, if any, damage there is to Boeing's infrastructure in North Charleston or to any of the airframes that are in various stages of completion and that are unable to move out of the path of the storm.  For now it does seem that the Boeing plant in North Charleston came through the storm in good shape.  Some of the Charleston built 787s that were away for painting have now returned and they have also resumed production flight testing which is also a good sign.

Another production milestone is the role out of LN 500 for AerCap/Air France.  Even though the line number is 500, it is the 497th 787 pulled out of Boeing's plants (not including the static and fatigue test frame). I'm not sure which air frame will be the 500th rolled out.

L/N 500 for AerCap/Air France being pulled into building 40-24.  Photo by Chris Edwards of Woody's Aeroimages
There isn't anything notable of the 8 remaining 787s that are to be delivered this month though L/N 15, another early build 787-8 should be delivered to Air Austral later this month.  Also it is rumored that L/N 17 which was to be delivered to Crystal Cruises next month might actually go to Air Austral though this is unconfirmed.  We'll know more when it returns from painting in Victorville.  If Boeing delivers all 13 787s on the schedule it would be 11 787-9s vs 2 787-8s.

787 Full Production Table