Showing posts with label ZB412. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ZB412. Show all posts

Thursday, October 1, 2015

787 deliveries continue to exceed guidance. 3rd quarter 2015 787 deliveries stand at 37



Monthly 787 Deliveries by Model
Deliveries of 787 continue to exceed factory output for the third month in a row as Boeing shipped 11 787s to customers versus 10 rollouts from the plants in Everett and North Charleston.  For the 3rd quarter which just ended, Boeing has delivered 37 787s versus rolling out 31 aircraft.  This means the delivery backlog is shrinking which is very good news for Boeing.  The overall program efficiency is 0.91 (10 aircraft completed versus 11 delivered).  Everett's efficiency ratio is 0.67 (6 787s rolled out versus 9 delivered).   North Charleston didn't do as well as they had an efficiency of 2 (4 roll outs versus only 2 deliveries).  Of the 17 787s that are currently complete, 8 were built in Charleston (including the 2 Kenya Airways jets).  That's a large number compared to the monthly output from Charleston.  This output has increased due to the phase out of the Everett surge line which is currently producing only 1 per month.  I don't know the reason for the slow down in the Charleston delivery rate but it could be related to customer readiness to take delivery of the aircraft.  Also one cannot help notice that a few 787s have been flown to Everett and were (or will be) delivered from that facility.

Boeing has delivered 329 to date since program deliveries began 4 years ago.  This number includes 54 787-9 and 275 787-8. 2015 year to date deliveries stand at 101.  Boeing has said that they plan to deliver over 120 787s this year and I believe they can achieve over 130 this year.  Over 60% of the total 787-8 order book has been delivered while over 10% of the total 787-9 order book has been turned over to customers.  What is noticeable is that since June the number of 787-9 delivered has either equal or exceeded the number of 787-8 delivered.  I expect this trend to continue for quite a while since most of the -8s have been delivered, of course this is barring any large -8 orders that Boeing books over the next few years.

Notable 787s that were delivered included ZB412 (LN 345, JA873A) a 787-9 for ANA otherwise known as the "Star Wars jet."  ZB362 (LN 346, G-ZBKA) for British Airways.  This is the carriers first of 22 -9s.  They should have over 16 in the fleet a year from now.  ZA685 (LN 343, B-2763) is the 6th and last 787-8 for Xiamen Airlines. ZA225 (LN 344, VH-VKL) is the last 787-8 for Jetstar.  All future 787 for QANTAS will now be delivered directly to that carrier.

Even though this is preliminary, I expect that Boeing can deliver up to 14 787s but this number includes the 2 Kenya Airways jests which I list as "In Storage."  Some notable deliveries planned for October include the first 787-8 to Oman Air, 2 787-8s to Qatar Airways, 2 787s to Scoot (one -8 and one -9) and two more 787-9s to British Airways.  If Congress can resolve the Ex-Im Bank issue (October 2015 might be the last chance to do this until 2017) then the two Kenya Airways 787-8s can also be delivered.

Lastly, word though an article by Flightglobal, indicates that Emirates won't make a decision on the 787-10 vs. the A350-900 until next year.  So we can now forget about any major Emirates orders coming from the Dubai Airshow next month.

787 Full Production Table

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

QANTAS finally commits to 787, Boeing set to deliver 13 787s by end of August



QANTAS 787-9

After years of struggling to return to profitability, Australian carrier, QANTAS, has returned to the black and has started ordering the 787.  Actually QANTAS had the 787-9 on order but cancelled an order for 35 aircraft in 2012 when their financial situation was bleak.  They retained the 787-8 order for Jetstar (14 aircraft) as well as retained the 20 options and 30 purchase rights at the time of the cancellation.  The purcahse rights have no production slots assigned to them whereas the options do.  QANTAS will exercise the options first as the expiration dates come due.

The carrier ordered 8 787-9, 3 of which are conversion of 3 Jetstar 787-8 to 787-9, and exercised 5 options.  The first four are to arrive between July 1, 2017 and June 30, 2018 while the second set of four will arrive between July 1, 2018 and June 30, 2019.  These 8 aircraft will replace 5 747-400.  QANTAS is not reducing overall fleet capacity but the use of the smaller 787-9 will give the airline more flexibility to down-gauge routes that are currently using the 747-400.  Jetstar's 11th 787 is already on the flightline and should be delivered next month.

QANTAS still retains 15 options and 30 rights for any model 787, thus I do see that the 787-10 can very well be in QANTAS' future.  The replacement strategy seems to be to only exercise the rights/options just before they are about to expire thus taking advantage of long term fleet and route planning at QANTAS as they replace the 747s.

ANA 787-9 ZB411 (LN329, JA872A)
In other 787 news, Boeing is looking to deliver 13 total 787s in August (I was predicting 15 earlier but 2 were pushed to early September).  3 aircraft (one each for ANA (787-9), CIT/Aeromexico (787-8), and Air New Zealand (787-9) have had their customer flights and should be delivered in the next week.  Air New Zealand will be receiving ZB001, the first 787-9 produced, after the aircraft had undergone a complete refurbishment at the conclusion of the 787-9 test program.  5 more 787s are awaiting their customer flights including one each for Air Canada (787-9), American Airlines (787-8), Scoot (787-8), United Airlines (787-9) and Vietnam Airlines (787-9).  If all the deliveries are made this month, Boeing would have delivered 13 in August, 89 through the first 8 months of 2015 and 317 since program deliveries began almost 4 years ago.

Lastly, ZB412 (LN345, JA873A) otherwise known as the "Star Wars" jet has been completed.  According to plans, this aircraft should have it's first flight on August 26th and then flown to Everett on August 31st where it will be painted in the special Star Wars scheme.  There is to be a special ceremony at the Future of Flight by ANA (I wonder if any of the cast of the new Star Wars movie will be there) around September 12th/13th.  The airplane will return to Charleston on September 14th to continue delivery preparations which should take place around September 29th.  The aircraft will be pressed into ANA service around October 16th.

787 Full Production Table