Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Boeing looking to deliver large number of 787s in 3rd quarter.

As we get closer to the end of July, Boeing is starting a drive to deliver as many as 135 787s this year and key to that will be deliveries for the third quarter. To that end it appears that Boeing will try to deliver a total of 13 787s in July. Most of the aircraft to be delivered this month already have their customer flights (2 have yet to fly a customer acceptance flight). The 300th 787 to be delivered will be amongst this group of 13 airplanes and currently it appears that ZB079 (LN286, A6-BLC) for Etihad will have the honors but that may change. The delivery drive won’t end there as Boeing is planning to deliver around 18 to 20 787s in August (some of which were deferred deliveries from earlier months) and 12 to 14 in September. If all the 787s projected for delivery are actually delivered in the 3rd quarter, we can see 45 787s going into customer hands in the quarter which is a huge number. Deliveries are expected to tail off in the fourth quarter, particularly in the last month and a half of 2015 with no more than 27 possible 787 deliveries.

This is a large number of deliveries and this is a plan as of now but it is something that Boeing is attempting to accomplish over the next two and half months. The key will be production flights to prepare for the onslaught of 787 deliveries in August. So far only a few 787s that are slated for delivery in August have flown but I do believe that will change over the next couple of weeks. 18 deliveries in one month are possible for the 787 program and it is something they had accomplished during Dec. 2014. Again a good indicator is the number of B-1 flights that take place between now and around August 20th.

For July, Boeing has delivered 5 787s so far with an additional 8 scheduled for delivery over the next 10 days. Air New Zealand will receive one of the 787-9 test aircraft that had under gone re-work and rebuilt to production standards. This aircraft, ZB002 (LN133, ZK-NZD) will be the 298th 787 delivered. After that there are 4 787s that are tentatively scheduled to deliver on July 27th. They are ZB079 (LN286, A6-BLC) for Etihad, ZB536 (LN303, VN-A861) for Vietnam Airlines, ZB410 (LN319, JA871A) for ANA and ZB173 (LN324, N45956) for United Airlines. Note that all these deliveries are 787-9s. As I mentioned, I believe that ZB536 will probably be the 300th but we’ll have to see. Boeing should close out 787 deliveries for July 2015 with ZB558 (LN323, C-FNOE) for Air Canada on July 29th which is also its first 787-9 and ZA142 (LN322, JA840A) a 787-8 for ANA. There were two 787-8 that were scheduled for delivery to Kenya Airways (ZA662 (LN307, 5Y-KZH) and ZA663 (LN317, 5Y-KZJ)) which are now scheduled for a late August delivery.

Finally it looks like Crystal Cruises is picking up some 787s according to this article in USA Today. My sources say that they may be picking up 3 787-8s from the terrible teens (they have a variable number that starts with ZD). The only ones that make logical choice are LN 5, LN17, and LN19 which are all GE equipped 787s. Also on the possible new order front, EVA Airways is saying that they plane on buying 24-26 787s for delivery between 2018 and 2019 according to a report by Reuters. We’ll see when these do in fact materialize.

787 Full Production Table
787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

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