Tuesday, June 30, 2015

787 Dreamliner 2015 mid year report

2015 so far is a good year for the 787.  Midway through 2015 Boeing has delivered 64 787 including 23 787-9.  In June Boeing delivered 10 787 - 6 787-9 and 4 787-8.  One the production front, the program loaded 64 different air frames to start final assembly and rolled out 63 by June 30th.

In terms of efficiency, the Everett lines were slightly more efficient at a ratio of 0.96 for the first half of 2015 versus North Charleston at 1.05.  June was not a very efficient month for North Charleston as its efficiency ratio in June was 2.0 versus Everett at 0.88.  For North Charleston the score was skewed by 4 deliveries made in May and only 2 in June while production rate was around 3 and 4 respectively.  In other words there was an extra delivery made in May and I suspect there will be 4 deliveries from North Charleston in July.

With quarter end there usually is a push to get as many airplanes delivered as possible but Boeing 787 deliveries from May to June were down from 13 to 10.  While still respectable, the 787 delivery number was hurt by continued issues with seat installations in airplanes destined for American Airlines and Etihad Airways.  Additionally, the change in production rate in Charleston may have slowed things a bit as Boeing is being careful with the break in rate at both 787 lines now that the surge line is winding down.

Speaking of the surge line, there are only 4 more 787 air frames that are scheduled to be built on that line.  Boeing will now slow that line down to a point where only 1 787 will be loaded each month from July to October (there were 3 loaded in June). With the 2 surge air frames now going to 40-26 and 88-30.  There will be an increase in the number of air frames on the Charleston flight line as there is a transition time where deliveries will have to catch up to the production rate.  This may not happen until the end of the summer.

For the last half of this year, expect that 787-9 deliveries will outnumber 787-8 deliveries which is expected as there are over 475 787-9 to be delivered against just under 200 787-8.  In fact June 2015 was the first month where 787-9 deliveries did outnumber 787-8 deliveries as mentioned earlier.  I expect this trend to more or less continue each month.

787 Full Production Table
787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer


NickSJ said...

Speaking of the -8 backlog, Aeroflot has publicly said they've cancelled their order for 22. Why hasn't that shown up in Boeing's numbers? Does anyone know whether the order for 18 that Delta inherited is likely to be filled given their order for A350s? Those 2 account for 40 of the 200 plus left on the -8 order book - a healthy chunk of that model's backlog.

Uresh said...

What Aeroflot says they intend to do in the media and what actually happens and when are 2 different things. We don't know if Aeroflot has actually executed, legally speaking, the cancellation. All we know is what they said to the media at the Paris Air Show. 2 different things.

Josh said...

I think the deliveries can be 5 for July if everything works correctly (also it depends on if you count PrivatAir LN 315).

Kenya 307 (was suppose to be delivered in June)
Scoot 314
PrivatAir 315 (built by Everett but ferried to SC)
Kenya 317
ANA 319
ANA 322

Of course this number is slightly skewed because of 307 and 315.

Uresh said...

I doubt that 322 would be delivered in July. That's looking more like August.

HK Expat said...

Interesting that on July 1st, only 2 of the projected 13-14 July deliveries have yet to conduct B1 flights. All the rest have already flown. This is a definite change from previous months situation at the beginning of the month. A sign of changed times? Anticipating summer holidays?

Vab Andleigh said...

In line with posts here, Deutche Bank is predicting large cash profits per plane for 787 as the -9 and -10 take over the production mix:

"The mix shift builds (but doesn't close) the case for $50M in gross profit per 787 at the turn of the decade (vs. losing $20M today)," Walton stated.

At present, the company incurs losses of more that $20 million in cash per copy for each 787. This is of course an improvement compared to the almost $75 million in cash losses being incurred per aircraft in 2013 and the $35 million cash losses per aircraft during 2014.

According to the Deutche Bank report, "An important inflection is upon the program, however, as it crosses break-even (we think on both the 787-8 and -9) in the next few quarters. Moreover, we see the dramatic (positive) mix shift ahead as the 90 percent mix of 787-8s previously delivered moves to less than 20 percent of the delivery mix going forward."

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/07/5641574/the-mix-matters-for-boeings-787-deutsche-bank-says#ixzz3el9gpuG0


Trapperpk said...

Uresh, What is happening to Vietnam's Airline 787-9. A recent article by Vietnam.net said the Airline had both the 787-9 and A-350-900 flying. Your chart shows it in Production testing with 7 flights for a long time. Did it get delivered in June as Vietnam.Net has suggested by referring to it as already delivered or are they mistaken. Please let me know since I've followed this aircraft through the progressions for awhile. Thanks

Uresh said...

It hasn't been delivered. It flew to Dulles today apparently the delivery will be coordinated with the arrival of some Vietnamese officials. I've had the delivery date as July 10th for a while though.

Brent said...

I just saw the Vietnam 789 landing at DCA. That was unexpected.