Huge news broke by Jon Ostrower. It looks like that ANA will be receiving 11 787s in the first 3 months when deliveries start in Feb. 2010. It seems that the Chinese carriers are not taking 787 deliveries for now. They have been complaining that the 787-8 is falling short of their expectations.
Jon is also reporting that Delta will not be taking up it early deliveries though all these carriers still have their orders intact. It seems they're going for the later deliveries far upstream. Boeing has indicated that the first 20 aircraft built will be overweight and the aircraft thereafter should meet weight specs that were originally promised and contracted for.
Lastly Jon reports that the 6 test aircraft have not been allocated to any customer even though Boeing previously said that ZA001 and ZA002 will go to ANA, ZA003 and ZA004 will go to Delta, and ZA005 and ZA006 will go to Royal Air Maroc. It seems that this not going to be done but will be allocated to carriers after they have been refurbished. Read Jon's story here.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Flightblogger: 787 preps for factory gauntlet
Jon Ostrower got another detail filled post out not too long ago. In it he confirmed what I posted with regards to the the factory gauntlet: factory gauntlet will start in about 10 days around April 10th) and should take 2 to 3 days after which it will be rolled out to the flightline.
The intermediate gauntlet will occur in mid-May soon after ZA002 (Dreamliner 2) joins ZA001 out on the flight line. while ZY998 the fatigue airframe will go back to the factory (though I'm not sure if it'll go to the 787 (40-26 building) line or the 767 line (40-24 building)) for continued structural re-work. My guess is it'll go to 40-24 so as not to interfere with 787 production.
ZY997 the fatigues test air frame is under going a quality assurance reconciliation before moving to the wing load limit test.
Read Jon's posting here.
Lastly, I found out that LN6 has completed wing body join.
The intermediate gauntlet will occur in mid-May soon after ZA002 (Dreamliner 2) joins ZA001 out on the flight line. while ZY998 the fatigue airframe will go back to the factory (though I'm not sure if it'll go to the 787 (40-26 building) line or the 767 line (40-24 building)) for continued structural re-work. My guess is it'll go to 40-24 so as not to interfere with 787 production.
ZY997 the fatigues test air frame is under going a quality assurance reconciliation before moving to the wing load limit test.
Read Jon's posting here.
Lastly, I found out that LN6 has completed wing body join.
Dreamlifter Fleet
In a rare moment photographer Matt Cawby got a nice picture of all three 747 Dreamlifter LCFs on the Boeing Ramp yesterday. There's supposed to be a 4th Dreamlifter but that is probably delayed until such time that Boeing will need it during the ramp up to full production.
Click here to see the picture.
Click here to see the picture.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Flightblogger: Remaining Milestones until First Flight
UPDATE: I got this description from Boeing:
Jon Ostrower posted an article regarding the remaining series of tests and checkouts to be done before first flight of the 787. Jon cautions that it may not be a complete guide to the remaining work but it does give us an idea of the work yet to be done.
In short the remaining testing will utilize the static test frame (ZY997), Dreamliner 1 (ZA001) and Dreamliner 2 (ZA002).
Please read Jon's post here. I've summarize some of the salient points below.
Two of the required three static load tests have been completed on the static test frame. Te remaining test to be done is the wing load limit test.
Ground Vibration Test is to be performed on ZA002. This airplane will be towed to building 40-24 where this test will be undertaken. So far my estimate is that it will take place in the latter half of April assuming that Dreamliner 1 conducts factory gauntlet inside 40-24 on April 10th and is then towed out to the flightline on April 13th from building 40-24.
Gauntlet Testing - first is factory gauntlet which takes place indoors (presumably in 40-24) where the aircraft is getting power from an external cart and batteries. Most of the systems are powered and tested but not all. The APU and engines are not turned on here. The second is the intermediate gauntlet which takes place out on the flightline. Here the APU and the engines are started for the first time and some of the systems are run on internal power for the first time. The aircraft is fueled up for the first time here. Lastly the final gauntlet is where the aircraft systems are powered for eight days straight and put through simulations to test the software.
Final testing will comprise of three phases. First is the Hot Test where the engines are run up to 100%. There will also be engines runs at different power settings. Second is the slow and medium speed taxi tests. Lastly there will be the high speed taxi test followed by first flight.
I don't have dates yet but the last I heard is that factory gauntlet testing should start on April 10th followed by the move outside on April 13th. We'll see if this schedule keeps.
Gauntlet tests in general are focused on integrated system integrity and functionality (hardware and software). The purpose of the factory gauntlet is to test most of the airplanes systems (not the engines or the APU) integrated on the airplane in a simulated flying environment. The intermediate and final gauntlet tests are more thorough and include engines and the APU. The engines will be run at various power settings during gauntlet testing. However, the pre-flight engine testing is a separate activity. We have not assigned specific time periods for these tests.
Jon Ostrower posted an article regarding the remaining series of tests and checkouts to be done before first flight of the 787. Jon cautions that it may not be a complete guide to the remaining work but it does give us an idea of the work yet to be done.
In short the remaining testing will utilize the static test frame (ZY997), Dreamliner 1 (ZA001) and Dreamliner 2 (ZA002).
Please read Jon's post here. I've summarize some of the salient points below.
Two of the required three static load tests have been completed on the static test frame. Te remaining test to be done is the wing load limit test.
Ground Vibration Test is to be performed on ZA002. This airplane will be towed to building 40-24 where this test will be undertaken. So far my estimate is that it will take place in the latter half of April assuming that Dreamliner 1 conducts factory gauntlet inside 40-24 on April 10th and is then towed out to the flightline on April 13th from building 40-24.
Gauntlet Testing - first is factory gauntlet which takes place indoors (presumably in 40-24) where the aircraft is getting power from an external cart and batteries. Most of the systems are powered and tested but not all. The APU and engines are not turned on here. The second is the intermediate gauntlet which takes place out on the flightline. Here the APU and the engines are started for the first time and some of the systems are run on internal power for the first time. The aircraft is fueled up for the first time here. Lastly the final gauntlet is where the aircraft systems are powered for eight days straight and put through simulations to test the software.
Final testing will comprise of three phases. First is the Hot Test where the engines are run up to 100%. There will also be engines runs at different power settings. Second is the slow and medium speed taxi tests. Lastly there will be the high speed taxi test followed by first flight.
I don't have dates yet but the last I heard is that factory gauntlet testing should start on April 10th followed by the move outside on April 13th. We'll see if this schedule keeps.
Friday, March 27, 2009
QANTAS might defer 787 orders
In a news story that was printed in the Sydney Morning Herald, QANTAS may have to defer or cancel part of their 787 order in order to avoid accessing capital markets in order to keep its investment grade credit rating. They have been hit hard by investment losses. Read the article here.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Dreamliner 1 News
Some information I just received though I am still trying to confirm it. Dreamliner 1 is scheduled to undergo factory gauntlet testing on April 10th. It is then scheduled to be moved out to the flightline on April 13th. I'm still trying to confirm but this would inidcate that factory gauntlet might take a couple of days. I'm not sure why th test is not scheduled to start for another 2 week but I speculate that it might be to prepare the test equipement for the factory gauntlet.
Lastly, Matt Cawby got pictures of Boeing vans setting up flight test instrumentation around Paine Field. See his pictures here and here.
Lastly, Matt Cawby got pictures of Boeing vans setting up flight test instrumentation around Paine Field. See his pictures here and here.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Flightblogger: On the road to 787 First Flight
Jon posted a nice update on Dreamliner 1. Read it here. In it he confirms that ZA001 was moved out of the paint shop last Saturday (March 21st) back to building 40-24. He also says that ZA001 can be out on the flight line as early as next week (yesterday I said it could be out there later this week) and factory gauntlet testing (the first of three gauntlet tests) can possibly take place out on the flight line with the airplane hooked up to external power as well as using its battery.
Lastly, it seems that Bloomberg picked up on the post I put up yesterday. Click here.
Lastly, it seems that Bloomberg picked up on the post I put up yesterday. Click here.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Mt Redoubt blows its top: possible implications for 787 assembly?
RELATED UPDATE: Boeing told me that they're monitoring the sitation on Mt. Redoubt but don't expect any disruptions to their operations.
UNRELATED UPDATE: Dreamliner 1 might be making an appearance on the Boeing Everett flight line by around Wednesday or Thursday (March 25/26) of this week.
As some of you know, Alaska's Mt. Redoubt, a volcano about a 100 miles away from Anchorage, Alaska, erupted on Sunday. Geophysicists have said that these eruptions can continue for weeks or months.
Now what does that have to do with the assembly of the 787. Plenty it turns out. Boeing dispatches the 747 Dreamlifter or LCF to Nagoya to pick up the center wing box and mid fuselage sections that are then transported to Charleston, SC for integration with other parts flown in from Italy. These parts, when assembled form the 787 main fuselage. The LCFs also fly the wing boxes (or wings) for the 787 from Nagoya to Everett for final assembly.
Because of these eruptions, Mt Redoubt is throwing up plenty of ash and dust into the atmosphere. This ash and dust, when sucked into the engines of commercial aircraft, can flame out the engines which has happened with a 747 flying through a previous eruption many years ago (fortunately the pilots were able to restart engines before the plane would have crashed). This eruption can and will disrupt air traffic flying into and out of Anchorage, AK. When the LCFs are flying with these heavy sections and wings on their way to the US, they have to have a refueling stop in Anchorage. If Anchorage is shut down or if the dust and ash cloud prevents commercial aircraft from operating near Anchorage (which is on major commercial routes), then the LCF flights can be delayed or perhaps stopped from traveling from Japan to the US.
Note that when the LCFs are empty, they can fly a more southerly route and don't need a refueling stop on its way to Japan from the US. We just have to wait and see how this could effect Boeing in the near term as they attempt to increase 787 production.
UNRELATED UPDATE: Dreamliner 1 might be making an appearance on the Boeing Everett flight line by around Wednesday or Thursday (March 25/26) of this week.
As some of you know, Alaska's Mt. Redoubt, a volcano about a 100 miles away from Anchorage, Alaska, erupted on Sunday. Geophysicists have said that these eruptions can continue for weeks or months.
Now what does that have to do with the assembly of the 787. Plenty it turns out. Boeing dispatches the 747 Dreamlifter or LCF to Nagoya to pick up the center wing box and mid fuselage sections that are then transported to Charleston, SC for integration with other parts flown in from Italy. These parts, when assembled form the 787 main fuselage. The LCFs also fly the wing boxes (or wings) for the 787 from Nagoya to Everett for final assembly.
Because of these eruptions, Mt Redoubt is throwing up plenty of ash and dust into the atmosphere. This ash and dust, when sucked into the engines of commercial aircraft, can flame out the engines which has happened with a 747 flying through a previous eruption many years ago (fortunately the pilots were able to restart engines before the plane would have crashed). This eruption can and will disrupt air traffic flying into and out of Anchorage, AK. When the LCFs are flying with these heavy sections and wings on their way to the US, they have to have a refueling stop in Anchorage. If Anchorage is shut down or if the dust and ash cloud prevents commercial aircraft from operating near Anchorage (which is on major commercial routes), then the LCF flights can be delayed or perhaps stopped from traveling from Japan to the US.
Note that when the LCFs are empty, they can fly a more southerly route and don't need a refueling stop on its way to Japan from the US. We just have to wait and see how this could effect Boeing in the near term as they attempt to increase 787 production.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Boeing announces the start of final assembly on Dreamliner 6
Pictures Courtesy of BoeingBoeing started the final assembly of Dreamliner 6 according to a press release:
EVERETT, Wash., March 19, 2009 - The sixth and final Boeing [NYSE: BA] 787 Dreamliner designated for flight test is now undergoing final assembly in Everett, Wash. The airplane, designated ZA006, will be powered with General Electric GEnx engines. Progress continues on the fleet. The first flight test airplane, ZA001, is getting its paint touched up this week before finishing factory testing. Power was brought onto the second airplane, ZA002, in late February and build verification tests are progressing well. Production work continues on ZA003, ZA004 and ZA005. In all, assemblies for 31 Dreamliners are currently in production throughout the supply chain. The 787 Dreamliner has orders for 878 airplanes from 57 customers.The thing to note that power has been turned on on Dremaliner 2 (ZA002) which is an important milestone as that airplane is need to perform ground vibration testing prior to first flight. ZA001 is finishing up painting and then will proceed with factory gauntlet testing in building 40-24 (767 line). After that it should have intermediate gauntlet testing done out on the Everett flight line. I anticipate, barring any issues that may arise with the factory gauntlet, that ZA001 should be on the flight line by mid to late April.
According to Flightblogger in a posting today, parts for Dreamliner 7 will start arriving this week starting with the horizontal stabilizer. I believe Dreamliner 7 wil start final assembly around late April to early May. This will be the first production airplane which is a big deal for this program. Dreamliner 2 will start ground vibrations testing next week.
By the way, Randy Tinseth has a great entry on his blog at Boeing with an additional picture. Read it here.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
787 line moved on Friday (March 13)
Boeing moved the 787 line on Friday March 13th.). Dreamliner 3 was moved out of the line to building 40-22 (747 line) where it will continue assembly thus moving Dreamliner 4 and Dreamliner 5 down one spot and making room for Dreamliner 6 to start final assembly on Monday March 16th in position 1. Dreamliner 2 will remain it is current spot in position 4 in building 40-26
The final section for that airplane, the main center fuselage is being flown tonight to Everett from Global Aeronautica on the Dreamlifter. Track the LCF flight here.
The final section for that airplane, the main center fuselage is being flown tonight to Everett from Global Aeronautica on the Dreamlifter. Track the LCF flight here.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
787 Production Progress: Vought bringing back some workers in Charleston, SC
In another sign of production progress, Vought is bringing back some of the laid off workers at the Charleston, SC plant where the rear fuselage is produced. These workers were laid off due to the IAM strike and are now being recalled to help support the increase in production of the rear fuselage sections for the 787.
Read the article here.
Read the article here.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Near term 787 dates
I just got some new information on some near term 787 goals (near term, meaning over the next week). I got confirmation that the forward fuselage for Dreamliner 6 (ZA006) was delivered into Everett last night on the Dreamlifter. That leaves the main fuselage to be delivered. That part should arrive from Global Aeronautica in Charleston, SC on March 13th (this Friday).
The line move that was supposed to occur on March 8th is now slated to occur on March 14-15th.
After that the parts for Dreamliner 6 will be moved into position 1 on the 787 line around March 16th to start final assembly.
Lastly, AF-KLM has announced that they will decide between the 787 and the A350 by the end of 2009 or early 2010. If Airbus doesn't get GE to sign on to the A350 then the odds are in favor of the 787 getting the nod.
The line move that was supposed to occur on March 8th is now slated to occur on March 14-15th.
After that the parts for Dreamliner 6 will be moved into position 1 on the 787 line around March 16th to start final assembly.
Lastly, AF-KLM has announced that they will decide between the 787 and the A350 by the end of 2009 or early 2010. If Airbus doesn't get GE to sign on to the A350 then the odds are in favor of the 787 getting the nod.
Dreamliner 1 moved to paint shop
Dreamliner 1 entering the Boeing paint shop in Everett on March 10, 2009Thanks to Tony for permission to use this picture.
After almost two years of disassembly and reassembly, Dreamliner 1 made the short trip to Boeing's paint shop for repainting and its aqueous tank wash. This should be the last few steps prior to the aircraft being turned over to the flight test division to start gauntlet testing leading to first flight (in about 10 days according to Jon Ostrower in his latest blog post). Since Scott Carson pronounced Dreamliner 1 "essentially" factory complete there might be some small assembly tasks remaining as the aircraft goes through ground testing and gauntlet tests.
The gauntlet tests will be driven not be schedule but by accomplishing each milestone before proceeding to the next test. I anticipate that gauntlet testing should take about 2 months. During that time Dreamliner 2 should complete ground vibration testing and the static test airframe should complete the required load testing prior to first flight.
Now that Dreamliner 1 has moved on I anticipate that the 787 line move should occur either today or tomorrow. It was supposed to occur on March 8th but was delayed. in conjuntion with this line move I also anticipate that final assembly on Dreamliner 6 should start late this week or this weekend. The forward fuselage for this aircraft may have been delivered yesterday but I am still trying to get confirmation on this. Saj over at Fleetbuzzeditorial.com also put out a post describing the upcoming 787 milestones. Read his blog post here.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Dreamliner 6 forward fuselage
The Dreamliner is flying today from Charleston, SC to Wichita today and then later on to Paine Field in Everett. It's my thought that it might be carrying the forward fuselage for Dreamliner 6 (LN 6) to Everett today.
The only way to confirm this is to have someone let me know if the section is actually unloaded at Everett today.
See the Flightaware track.
The only way to confirm this is to have someone let me know if the section is actually unloaded at Everett today.
See the Flightaware track.
Scott Carson: Dreamliner 1 factory complete
Scott Carson was speaking at the JP Morgan Aviation conference reaffirmed Boeing's 787 schedule for first flight as by the end of the 2nd quarter this year and first delivery for the end of the 1st quarter of 2010.
He also said that Dreamliner 1 is essentially factory complete and will be going to the paint shop soon.
He said, "We have cleared all the equipment for first flight."
After painting Dreamliner 1 will go through the three gauntlet tests which also includes engines run ups and taxi tests.
Read a news report here. Also read a post by Flightblogger here.
UPDATE: In somewhat related news, Delta stated in the earnings release that the 787s they have on order are still a firm order and that they are anxious to take delivery of the 787s. Change of mind in Atlanta.
He also said that Dreamliner 1 is essentially factory complete and will be going to the paint shop soon.
He said, "We have cleared all the equipment for first flight."
After painting Dreamliner 1 will go through the three gauntlet tests which also includes engines run ups and taxi tests.
Read a news report here. Also read a post by Flightblogger here.
UPDATE: In somewhat related news, Delta stated in the earnings release that the 787s they have on order are still a firm order and that they are anxious to take delivery of the 787s. Change of mind in Atlanta.
Friday, March 6, 2009
Flightblogger 787 Program Update Part 2
Jon Ostrower posted the 2nd part of his 787 program update. This part deals with the start of assembly of production standard aircraft, the first of which is destined for ANA.
Read Jon's blog post here.
Additionally Innovation Analysis Group has released a podcast detailing the progress of the 787 program. Listen to it here.
Read Jon's blog post here.
Additionally Innovation Analysis Group has released a podcast detailing the progress of the 787 program. Listen to it here.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Flightblogger 787 Update for March 2009
Jon Ostrower just put out the first of two parts of a 787 Update.
He confirms an upcoming line move for the 787 that was reported here earlier. The main difference is that LN 3 (ZA003) will be moved out of the assembly hall in 40-26 and being sent to the 747 assembly line in building 40-23. ZA 001 (LN 1) should be making its way to the paint hanger within the next one week to 10 days after it undergoes the medium blow pressure test. The fact that Dreamliner 1 will soon be going over to the paint shop strongly suggests that this aircraft is factory complete. I believe that after painting, Dreamliner 1 will have it's fuel tanks undergo the aqueous wash before moving on to gauntlet testing.
Dreamliner 2 will be staying inside 40-26 undergoing completion and goes through power on after the line move. Jon says that Boeing is shifting it's emphasis to getting Dreamliner 1, Dreamliner 2, and Dreamliner 5 out the door and flying.
Jon is also reporting that first flight is still to be determined but feels that it occur by the end of June, 2009 though time margins are shrinking. The required gauntlet testing has been pushed out to early April.
Read Jon's article here.
He confirms an upcoming line move for the 787 that was reported here earlier. The main difference is that LN 3 (ZA003) will be moved out of the assembly hall in 40-26 and being sent to the 747 assembly line in building 40-23. ZA 001 (LN 1) should be making its way to the paint hanger within the next one week to 10 days after it undergoes the medium blow pressure test. The fact that Dreamliner 1 will soon be going over to the paint shop strongly suggests that this aircraft is factory complete. I believe that after painting, Dreamliner 1 will have it's fuel tanks undergo the aqueous wash before moving on to gauntlet testing.
Dreamliner 2 will be staying inside 40-26 undergoing completion and goes through power on after the line move. Jon says that Boeing is shifting it's emphasis to getting Dreamliner 1, Dreamliner 2, and Dreamliner 5 out the door and flying.
Jon is also reporting that first flight is still to be determined but feels that it occur by the end of June, 2009 though time margins are shrinking. The required gauntlet testing has been pushed out to early April.
Read Jon's article here.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Aviation Week: Delta not to take early 787
According to Aviation Week, Delta Airlines appears to be walking away from the inital 787s that was part of the order made by Northwest Airlines. Looking at annual report for Delta Airlines, the 787 were deleted from the firm order count though the order still is on the books at Boeing.
It is quite possible that Delta would trade them for more 777s and take later 787 slots. This would also help free up early delivery slots for customers affected by the delays in the 787.
Read the Av Week article here.
It is quite possible that Delta would trade them for more 777s and take later 787 slots. This would also help free up early delivery slots for customers affected by the delays in the 787.
Read the Av Week article here.
Monday, March 2, 2009
New 787 Update
I just got word on some upcoming 787 activity. On March 8th there will be a line move with LN 2 finally moving out of building 40-26 and going into building 40-24. LN 1 should be moving around that time to the paint shop as well though I have yet to get a date on that.
The two remaining fuselage sections for LN 6 (ZA006), which is the final test flight aircraft and the second 787 to be powered by the GEnx engines, should arrive around the 8th or the 9th of March. Final assembly should start on March 10th and in the case of this airplane the join should only take a few days in total. This indicates that LN 6 will arrive with significantly reduced traveled work to be done.
Lastly, LN 3 (ZA 003) will get it RR Trent 1000 engines either today (March 2nd) or on Tomorrow (March 3rd).
The two remaining fuselage sections for LN 6 (ZA006), which is the final test flight aircraft and the second 787 to be powered by the GEnx engines, should arrive around the 8th or the 9th of March. Final assembly should start on March 10th and in the case of this airplane the join should only take a few days in total. This indicates that LN 6 will arrive with significantly reduced traveled work to be done.
Lastly, LN 3 (ZA 003) will get it RR Trent 1000 engines either today (March 2nd) or on Tomorrow (March 3rd).
787-10 and 787 weight issues
Daniel Tsang who writes for Airways Aviation News, posted a great article on the 787-10 but revealed some interesting tid bits on Boeing's weight reduction efforts. Namely ZA020 (Dreamliner 20) will be at the promised weight while the previous 19 airplanes will be less than 4 tons overweight.
Read his article here.
Read his article here.
Fleetbuzzeditorial.com 787 update part 2 and part 3
Here's the second part of Saj's 787 Program Review. Click here.
You can read the third and final part of his review here.
You can read the third and final part of his review here.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Flightblogger: 787 FAL Picture
Picture Courtesy of Boeing
Flightblogger got a great picture on the blog of the 787 final assembly line as of a week ago. Click here to see it!
UPDATE: I got further confirmation that Boeing is still planning to power on LN 2 later this week and move the aircraft to 40-24 within the next two weeks. The word on LN 1 is that it's still being worked on in building 40-24 with numerous access panels still opened. Inside building 40-24 there is a 767, 787 (LN 1) and a 777F having it's cargo door rigged (all 777Fs are having their cargo doors rigged in building 40-24 for now). LN 2 has to move out to 40-24 before the remaining parts for LN 6 are delivered. That means that either LN 1 has to move out (presumably to the paint shop) or the 777F will have to the flight line.
Monday, February 23, 2009
787 Progress Review
Saj Ahmad over at Fleetbuzzeditorial.com wrote a great review of the 787 program on his web stie. Read it here. The article is in two parts with part 2 coming out next week.
Friday, February 20, 2009
It's all about the numbers
Yesterday Airbus announced that they're cutting back on their production output for the A320 and A330/A340. The A320 cut is from 36/month to 34/month and the A330/A340 production will be maintained at 8.5/month.
Now comes this insightful piece of analysis done by Saj Ahmad of fleetbuzzeditorial.com that basically claims that the numbers that Airbus released yesterday isall smoke and mirrors.
The main point...Airbus is already producing A320s at about 32/month based on last years' actual deliveries of A320s and the A330/A340 at 7/month.
Read Saj's analysis here.
Now comes this insightful piece of analysis done by Saj Ahmad of fleetbuzzeditorial.com that basically claims that the numbers that Airbus released yesterday isall smoke and mirrors.
The main point...Airbus is already producing A320s at about 32/month based on last years' actual deliveries of A320s and the A330/A340 at 7/month.
Read Saj's analysis here.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Dreamliner 2 to move within weeks
I got word from independent sources that Dreamliner 2 is to be moved out of the 787 final assembly building as early as Feb. 27th but may take place as late as March 6th. The move will take this airplane to building 40-24 to complete assembly tasks. The move will allow the final assembly to start on Dreamliner 6 whose parts have already started to flow into Everett.
Additionally, power on for Dreamliner 2 is scheduled for around the end of this week though that may take place by Feb. 27th.
Additionally, power on for Dreamliner 2 is scheduled for around the end of this week though that may take place by Feb. 27th.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Rear fuselage for Dreamliner 6 heading to Everett?
UPDATE: I got confirmation that the rear fuselage for Dreamliner 6 is on board the Dreamlifter.
A Boeing Dreamlifter is flying to Everett this morning possibly carrying the rear fuselage for Dreamliner 6. It should arrive by about 3:15PM EST. I hope to have some confirmation a little later.
A Boeing Dreamlifter is flying to Everett this morning possibly carrying the rear fuselage for Dreamliner 6. It should arrive by about 3:15PM EST. I hope to have some confirmation a little later.
Monday, February 9, 2009
ATW's Geoffrey Thomas gives update on 787
A great short article on where the 787 program is and it's immediate future. Here's a summary:
ZA002 - Fastener rework should be completed by this weekend and power on should be in about 10 days.
ZA003 and ZA004 - fastener rework is on going.
ZA005 - still in fuselage-wing join.
ZA006 - Wings arrived totally completed and painted. As reported here the tail feathers arrived last week (the horizontal stabilizers). Fuselage sections should arrive by Feb. 27th with no open issues when they arrive in Everett. The rear fuselage could arrive by the end of this week.
ZY997 (static test airframe) - fastener rework should be completed next week and wing load test will restart immediately. That should take about two months to perform.
ZY998 (fatigue test frame) - Should be turned over for the start of fatigue testing on June 1st.
Geoffrey also says that Boeing's internal target for first flight is the last week of April.
Read Geoffrey's article here.
ZA002 - Fastener rework should be completed by this weekend and power on should be in about 10 days.
ZA003 and ZA004 - fastener rework is on going.
ZA005 - still in fuselage-wing join.
ZA006 - Wings arrived totally completed and painted. As reported here the tail feathers arrived last week (the horizontal stabilizers). Fuselage sections should arrive by Feb. 27th with no open issues when they arrive in Everett. The rear fuselage could arrive by the end of this week.
ZY997 (static test airframe) - fastener rework should be completed next week and wing load test will restart immediately. That should take about two months to perform.
ZY998 (fatigue test frame) - Should be turned over for the start of fatigue testing on June 1st.
Geoffrey also says that Boeing's internal target for first flight is the last week of April.
Read Geoffrey's article here.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
FAA loosening lighting protection standards, helps 787
A great article by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times. In it he states that the FAA is quietly loosening standards governing lighting protection around the fuel tanks. It was the TWA 800 crash that bought about the revised standards in 2001. How it looks like the FAA is backtracking on those. The 787 will benefit from these revised standards.
Read the article here.
Read the article here.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Another 787 cancellation
LCAL calcelled most of it's 787 order that they had placed over the last few years. They cited the current world economic recession and future economic uncertainty as the cause. Prior to the cancellation LCAL had orders 9 787-9 and 12 787-8. They cancelled all the -9 and 7 of the -8s.
While this is a poor turn of events for Boeing, LCAL did have some early delivery slots thus Boeing might be able to mitigate some of the delays with other airlines. Clearly, in this environment new orders are going to be very hard to come by, but if Boeing can hold on to many of their "blue chip" customers, then they can be in a good position to weather the storm.
At the end of the day Boeing needs to get the 787 into the air along with the other 5 test airplanes.
A bit of good news for the program, an LCF flew in today from Grottaglie, Italy. I believed it was carrying the horizontal stabilizer for airplane #6.
While this is a poor turn of events for Boeing, LCAL did have some early delivery slots thus Boeing might be able to mitigate some of the delays with other airlines. Clearly, in this environment new orders are going to be very hard to come by, but if Boeing can hold on to many of their "blue chip" customers, then they can be in a good position to weather the storm.
At the end of the day Boeing needs to get the 787 into the air along with the other 5 test airplanes.
A bit of good news for the program, an LCF flew in today from Grottaglie, Italy. I believed it was carrying the horizontal stabilizer for airplane #6.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Pictures of Dreamliner 1 and Dreamliner 2
Click this link to see the other pictures.
All Pictures Courtesy of http://www.fleetbuzzeditorial.com/
Picture is Copyrighted Fleetbuzz Editorial
Saj Ahmad of fleetbuzzeditorial.com released a few great pictures today on his website, Fleetbuzzeditorial.com. the pictures showed Dreamliner 2 with it's engines newly installed as well as with a lot of scaffolding around the aircraft. There was also a picture of Dreamliner in the 767 assembly hall. It appears that Dreamliner 1 still needs to have it's wing-fuselage fairing attached. The pictures were taken last week.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Improving 787 build time
As to be expected, the assembly times for each successive 787 is getting better. How do we know this? I take a look at the date that each Dreamliner (1-5) started it's final assembly and figured out the number of days it took to reach it's projected first flight based on Boeing estimates of Dreamliner 2-6 entering the test flight program in four months of the first flight. I also projected the number of days it would take Dreamliner 6 to go from start of final assembly to it's first flight. Now of course the airplanes would be shop complete well before first flight but this is to merely illustrate the improved final assembly time between LN 1 and LN 6.
Here's how it stacked up:
Dreamliner 1: Start Final Assembly on May 21, 2007, projected first flight date is April 24th, 2009. This is 704 days.
Dreamliner 2: Start Final Assembly on Feb. 14, 2008, projected first flight date is May 19th, 2009 (Three and a half weeks after Dreamliner 1 flies). This is 460 days.
Dreamliner 3: Start Final Assembly on May 1, 2008, projected first flight date is June 13, 2009 (Three and a half weeks after Dreamliner 2 flies). This is 408 days.
Dreamliner 4: Start Final Assembly on August 6, 2009, projected first flight date is July 8, 2009 (Three and half weeks after Dreamliner 3 flies). This is 336 days.
Dreamliner 5: Start Final Assembly on January 29, 2009, projected first flight date is August 2, 2009 (Three and a half weeks after Dreamliner 4 flies). This is 185 days.
Dreamliner 6: Projected start of Final Assembly on March 5th, 2009, projected first flight date is August 27, 2009 (Three and a half weeks after Dreamliner 5 flies). This is 175 days.
Dreamliner 2 should be ready to move out of building 40-26 by the end of February thus clearing way for Dreamliner 6 to enter final assembly in early March.
There is a huge improvement between Dreamliner 4 and Dreamliner 5 of about 151 days which is attributable to the improvement is the partners efforts to reduce the traveled work especially during the strike.
Friday, January 30, 2009
787 production resumes
Picture Courtesy of Boeing
Dreamliner 5 shown loaded in position 1
Boeing released a statement saying that 787 production has resumed. They also said that fastener rework is done on Dreamliner 1, almost complete on Dreamliner 2 and is still on going on Dreamliners 3 and 4. Boeing released an image, taken yesterday (Jan. 29), above showing the forward fuselage and the main fuselage section along with the wings in the position 1 tooling. The rear section has to be attached but I suspect that it'll be done by the end of this weekend.
Here's the text of the Boeing Press Release:
Production Resumes on Boeing 787 Dreamliners With Fifth Flight-Test Airplane
EVERETT, Wash., Jan. 30, 2009 -- Production of Boeing [NYSE: BA] 787 Dreamliners resumed yesterday with the join of the fifth airplane designated for flight test.
This airplane, designated ZA005, is the first to be powered with General Electric GEnx engines. The major assemblies were loaded in final body join over the past several days. The fuselage and wing joins occur simultaneously.
"This airplane signifies our return to a steady production rhythm," said Jack Jones, vice president of 787 Final Assembly and Change Incorporation.
"Sections are arriving in Everett at the completion levels committed by our partners and close to what is expected for mature production," Jones said. "The substantial progress made by our partners streamlines the assembly process, which is essential as we ramp up production."
Five of the six airplanes designated for flight test are now in varying stages of production. Power was restored earlier this week to the first flight-test airplane, ZA001, and production testing has resumed as the airplane prepares for first flight in the second quarter. Rolls-Royce engines are hung on ZA002, in the fourth and final production position in the factory. The third and fourth flight-test airplanes, ZA003 and ZA004, are in the third and second production positions, respectively.
Fastener rework is done on ZA001, nearly complete on ZA002 and progressing well on the third and fourth airplanes, Jones said. "We have applied the resources necessary to complete all the outstanding work on these airplanes and keep the production line moving forward."
Assemblies for the final flight-test airplane, ZA006, are in production at partner sites worldwide. In all, assemblies for 30 Dreamliners are in production at this time.
The 787 Dreamliner has orders for 895 airplanes from 58 airlines.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Dreamliner 1 powered on again.
Dreamliner 1 has been powered on again to retest systems that have been powered down since tbefore the strike.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Boeing posts 787 order cancellation
UPDATE: James Wallace at the Seattle PI reported that the customer who cancelled the 787 order was S7 of Russia. It was due to the economic climate and not the delays on the program.
Also Jon Ostrower reported that first flight of LN 2 can come as early as May which is 3 months earlier than I reported a month ago. Jon also reported that all 6 test airplanes can be flying within 4 months of first flight. Presumably if first flight occurs in late April then all 6 could be flying by the end of August. I still have my doubts about certification by the end of January 2010 but we'll see. Read Jon's report here.
Boeing, in it's financial statements said that they have booked a cancellation of 15 787s. The customer is unknown but could be Virgin Atlantic or an unknown customer. We'll probably know in about two weeks when Boeing releases it's monthly order and delivery totals.
"The 787 program has won 895 net orders from 58 customers to date, which
includes the recent removal from the books of one customer’s order for airplanes that were scheduled for delivery late in the next decade."
Also Jon Ostrower reported that first flight of LN 2 can come as early as May which is 3 months earlier than I reported a month ago. Jon also reported that all 6 test airplanes can be flying within 4 months of first flight. Presumably if first flight occurs in late April then all 6 could be flying by the end of August. I still have my doubts about certification by the end of January 2010 but we'll see. Read Jon's report here.
Boeing, in it's financial statements said that they have booked a cancellation of 15 787s. The customer is unknown but could be Virgin Atlantic or an unknown customer. We'll probably know in about two weeks when Boeing releases it's monthly order and delivery totals.
"The 787 program has won 895 net orders from 58 customers to date, which
includes the recent removal from the books of one customer’s order for airplanes that were scheduled for delivery late in the next decade."
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Ares 1-Y CGM Launch Video
Ok a little off topic but here's a cool video of the planned launch of NASA's ARES 1-Y test flight. Here it will use an acutal 5 segment SRB derived from the shuttle solid rocket motor as well as an actual 2nd stage but a dummy second stage engine and a dummy Orion capsule. The Launch Abort System tower (LAS tower) is real and NASA wants to test the high altitude capability of the LAS Tower to pull the Orion off the "stick" in case of an emergency. The test launch is planned for September 2013 and will not carry any astronauts.
Flightblogger: Dreamliner 1 through 6 Update
LN 1 in building 40-24 taken by Saj Ahmad 4 days ago.
Used with permission from Fleetbuzzeditorial.com
Jon Ostrower has posted a detailed update on 787 line numbers 1 through 6. Read it here.
Here's a summary:
LN 1 (Dreamliner 1): Set to be powered on again very soon. Will go through a "medium blow" pressurization test in early February. The engines nacelles cowlings have been reinstalled as well as the remaining control surfaces. As I reported earlier, Boeing has thrown a lot of resources at LN 1 and Boeing is leaving on some of the temporary fasteners for the duration of the testing program. This decision has saved a lot of time. Speaking of which the time frame for first flight looks to be shifting to the right a bit with some milestones now being classified as TBD. This includes first flight which was thought to be around the April 20th to April 24th time frame.
LN 2 (Dreamliner 2) : Dreamliner 2 had its engines and all flaps installed and work continues to center on finishing up fastener replacement. Jon is also reporting that power on should happen soon followed by the start of ground vibration testing in mid-March.
LN 3 (Dreamliner 3): Dreamliner 3 is on it's legs (landing gear) and has its engine pylons on.
LN 4 (Dreamliner 4): Dreamliner 4 is about to get its legs. This airplane, probably because it's in more complete shape, has a low priority in terms of resources.
LN 5 (Dreamliner 5): Dreamliner 5 is about to start final assembly. The main fuselage section is undergoing some traveled work installation prior to being sent into position 1 on the final assembly line. Section 41 arrived 100% complete and the rear fuselage arrived 95% complete. The pylons for the GEnx engines have been installed on the wings. This aircraft has arrived in a more complete state than the previous aircraft.
LN 6 (Dreamliner 6): The wings have come in and are virtually complete and have been painted as well.
ZY997 and ZY 998: The static and fatigue test airframes continue to have their fasteners replaced. for the static airframe this should be done by middle of February and thus set the stage for the resumption of static tests that are needed prior to first flight.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Gettin' Busy in the 787 Program
The 787 is getting busy through out the world. Information that I got says that there has been a tremendous amount of resources thrown at Dreamliner 1 and Dreamliner 2 to those two aircraft finished. LN 2 though as not been powered up and probably won't be until well after it is done with vibration testing.
Additionally Dreamliner 5 will start final assembly today and not tomorrow or Wedensday as I first thought. Section 41 (forward fuselage section) is already in position at the join tool and looks like the main fusealge will follow suit shortly.
Lastly, there has been an uptempo of LCF (Dreamlifter) flights. between the major partners which strongly suggests that the 787 production system is getting ramped up again. I've been tracking flight between Charleston, Nagoya and Grottaglie aswell as Everett. I'll continue to look at this trend to see how frequent the flights are and if they LCFs are making any fueling stops (In Anchorage or the UK) which indicates the presence of fuselage sections or wings that are being transported from Japan and Italy.
However, just because these is an increase in LCF flights doesn't necessarily mean that parts are being transported between sites, however it does bode well now that Dreamliner 5 will start final assembly soon.
UPDATE: Scott Hamilton has a story out on the 6 test 787 flying with temporary fasteners for the test flight program. the temporary fasteners will be replaced when the 6 airplanes undergo post test flight modifications in San Antonio. Read Scott's report here.
Additionally Dreamliner 5 will start final assembly today and not tomorrow or Wedensday as I first thought. Section 41 (forward fuselage section) is already in position at the join tool and looks like the main fusealge will follow suit shortly.
Lastly, there has been an uptempo of LCF (Dreamlifter) flights. between the major partners which strongly suggests that the 787 production system is getting ramped up again. I've been tracking flight between Charleston, Nagoya and Grottaglie aswell as Everett. I'll continue to look at this trend to see how frequent the flights are and if they LCFs are making any fueling stops (In Anchorage or the UK) which indicates the presence of fuselage sections or wings that are being transported from Japan and Italy.
However, just because these is an increase in LCF flights doesn't necessarily mean that parts are being transported between sites, however it does bode well now that Dreamliner 5 will start final assembly soon.
UPDATE: Scott Hamilton has a story out on the 6 test 787 flying with temporary fasteners for the test flight program. the temporary fasteners will be replaced when the 6 airplanes undergo post test flight modifications in San Antonio. Read Scott's report here.
Dreamliner 5 to start final assembly soon
The 5th flying 787 should start final assembl by tomorrow or Wednesday at the latest now that all the major assemblies have been delivered to Boeing's Everett facility. This is another important milestone in the 787 program as this plane will be the first GEnx powered 787 and will be used to certify the GEnx powered 787.
I expect that the airplane parts arrived with about a 95% to 98% completion. I think with Dreamliner 8 we'll see no traveled work from the major tier 1 partners and improved final assembly time from Boeing.
I expect that the airplane parts arrived with about a 95% to 98% completion. I think with Dreamliner 8 we'll see no traveled work from the major tier 1 partners and improved final assembly time from Boeing.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Forward Fuselage of Dreamliner 5 heading for Everett
Looks like the forward fuselage section (section 41) for Dreamliner 5 is being shipped tonight on the LCF. Here's the flightaware alert
It's entirely possible that the main fuselage can be delivered next week and LN 5 will enter final assembly before the end of the month. The wings for LN 6 have already been delivered to Everett.
It's entirely possible that the main fuselage can be delivered next week and LN 5 will enter final assembly before the end of the month. The wings for LN 6 have already been delivered to Everett.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Thai Airways may buy 787-9
According to our partner Airways Aviation News, Thai Airways may purchase 14 787-9 Dreamliners instead of leasing them. Thai's board is meeting next week to discuss this purchase. Read the story here.
UPDATE (01/08/09): Boeing released it's 2008 order and delivery numbers. In December Boeing booked an order for 15 787s from an unidentified customer. It is now known that this customer ordered 15 787-9s. I'm wondering if it was Thai who placed that order?
UPDATE (01/08/09): Boeing released it's 2008 order and delivery numbers. In December Boeing booked an order for 15 787s from an unidentified customer. It is now known that this customer ordered 15 787-9s. I'm wondering if it was Thai who placed that order?
Monday, January 5, 2009
Dreamliner 5 to start final assembly soon?
Jon Ostrower is reporting on his blog that the rear fuselage section for Dreamliner 5 will be arriving this week. That only leaves the forward fuselage and the main fuselage sections to be delivered. I'm still trying to find out when those sections will be delivered.
Also Jon reported that the pieces for the main fuselage section for Dreamliner 9 have been delivered to Global Aeronautica this past weekend to start that section's assembly and systems integration process.
UPDATE (1/12/2009): Jon Ostrower reported on his blog here, that the aft fuselage for LN 5 has arrived in Everett and that it is 95% complete. It has it fasteners repalced. Jon things the remaining two sections should be in Everett by the end of the month to start final assembly.
Also Jon reported that the pieces for the main fuselage section for Dreamliner 9 have been delivered to Global Aeronautica this past weekend to start that section's assembly and systems integration process.
UPDATE (1/12/2009): Jon Ostrower reported on his blog here, that the aft fuselage for LN 5 has arrived in Everett and that it is 95% complete. It has it fasteners repalced. Jon things the remaining two sections should be in Everett by the end of the month to start final assembly.
Friday, January 2, 2009
787 coming out
787 no. 1 will be leaving the final assembly hall for the last time for a spot in the 767 final assembly hall for about a month or so of assembly tasks and fastener repalcement tasks. Currently it is out of buidling 40-26 waiting for the the spot in 40-24 to open up (a 777 and the 787 fatigue test frame are also being moved). ZY998 will move to the flight line prior to being moved to the fatigue test area.
Also with on the card for tonight's move is the move of LN 2, LN 3, and LN4 to the spots forward of where they are. This will mean that position 1 in the 787 final assembly building (the big bang) will be free for the next 787 to enter final assembly, LN 5, or the GEnx test airframe.
I hope to link to pictures on other sites that document tonight's activities.
See here and here for Matt Cawby's pictures. She still is missings bits and pieces here and there.
Here's a FLICKR page with a lot of great pics from last night's move. And here's a video that Jon Ostrower also posted on his blog. Great details of the 787 here.
Dreamliner One Line Move from Liz Matzelle on Vimeo.
By the way, the other three 787s in building 40-26 were moved down one spot each as well. None have their engines hung as of yet.
Also with on the card for tonight's move is the move of LN 2, LN 3, and LN4 to the spots forward of where they are. This will mean that position 1 in the 787 final assembly building (the big bang) will be free for the next 787 to enter final assembly, LN 5, or the GEnx test airframe.
I hope to link to pictures on other sites that document tonight's activities.
See here and here for Matt Cawby's pictures. She still is missings bits and pieces here and there.
Here's a FLICKR page with a lot of great pics from last night's move. And here's a video that Jon Ostrower also posted on his blog. Great details of the 787 here.
Dreamliner One Line Move from Liz Matzelle on Vimeo.
By the way, the other three 787s in building 40-26 were moved down one spot each as well. None have their engines hung as of yet.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Flightblogger: 787 Update for 2009
Jon Ostrower has posted a great updates for the near term milestones that Boeing hopes to accomplish with the 787 on the road to first flight.
Please read it here.
Here is a summary:
Dreamliner 1 will leave the 787 final assembly bay in 40-26 and will go to a spot in the 767 final assembly building in 40-24. It will occupy a spot that the 787 fatigue test frame occupies. ZY998 will be towed to the Everett flight line where it will be completed and towed to the fatigue test area.
Dreamliner 1 will be in 40-24 for one month to finish up fastener replacement and minor assembly tasks. It will then start the first of three gauntlet tests. The first is the factory gauntlet where the flight test division puts the 787's systems through its paces.
After that Dreamliner 1 will go through the aqueous wash and the repainting as reported on this blog earlier in December.
By the end of March Dreamliner 1 will start the 2nd gauntlet test which is the starting of it's RR Trent 1000 engines for the very first time. The last guantlet is the running of all the 787 systems for 8 days straight to ensure that there aren't any issues.
Presumably, taxi test and RTO (rejected take off) tests will occur soon after the third gauntlet followed by first flight.
Dreamliner 2 is continuing fastener replacement which should be concluded by mid February. Then this aircraft will conduct ground vibrations testing presumably from late February to late March. There is still no word on when Dreamliner 2 will finish assembly and join the flight test program.
With the first 787 leaving the factory floor, this will now open up a spot in the final assembly hall for Dreamliner 5. The aft section of which will probably be delivered to Everett by the end of January. The wings, horizontal stab and vertical stab are all at Everett. The main fuselage section is being paced by the fastener replacement work that is on going. No word on the forward fuselage section but I presume that there is still on going fastener work with that airplane as well.
Please read it here.
Here is a summary:
Dreamliner 1 will leave the 787 final assembly bay in 40-26 and will go to a spot in the 767 final assembly building in 40-24. It will occupy a spot that the 787 fatigue test frame occupies. ZY998 will be towed to the Everett flight line where it will be completed and towed to the fatigue test area.
Dreamliner 1 will be in 40-24 for one month to finish up fastener replacement and minor assembly tasks. It will then start the first of three gauntlet tests. The first is the factory gauntlet where the flight test division puts the 787's systems through its paces.
After that Dreamliner 1 will go through the aqueous wash and the repainting as reported on this blog earlier in December.
By the end of March Dreamliner 1 will start the 2nd gauntlet test which is the starting of it's RR Trent 1000 engines for the very first time. The last guantlet is the running of all the 787 systems for 8 days straight to ensure that there aren't any issues.
Presumably, taxi test and RTO (rejected take off) tests will occur soon after the third gauntlet followed by first flight.
Dreamliner 2 is continuing fastener replacement which should be concluded by mid February. Then this aircraft will conduct ground vibrations testing presumably from late February to late March. There is still no word on when Dreamliner 2 will finish assembly and join the flight test program.
With the first 787 leaving the factory floor, this will now open up a spot in the final assembly hall for Dreamliner 5. The aft section of which will probably be delivered to Everett by the end of January. The wings, horizontal stab and vertical stab are all at Everett. The main fuselage section is being paced by the fastener replacement work that is on going. No word on the forward fuselage section but I presume that there is still on going fastener work with that airplane as well.
Monday, December 22, 2008
LN 2 and Beyond: The Impact to Certification
I just got confirmation that LN 2 (ZA002) most likely won't make it's first flight until the summer of 2009. The reason is due to a lot of traveled work yet to be done on the airplane and the shifting of resources to finish LN 1. All that along with the fastener issues have impacted LN 2 shop completion date.
This can slow down the certification efforts by Boeing for the 787.
However after airplane 2 is completed the pace assembly will pick up due to the more complete states of the follow on aircraft delivered into Everett. LN 3 should be done about a month after LN 2 and LN 4 not too long after that as it was delivered mostly complete and with very little traveled work.
It is projected that LN 7 should be 98% complete by the time it arrives in Everett and LN 8 should be shop complete when those sections arrive in Everett for preintergration.
The question now is how will LN 2's first flight in the late summer impact on the certification and EIS of the 787?
This can slow down the certification efforts by Boeing for the 787.
However after airplane 2 is completed the pace assembly will pick up due to the more complete states of the follow on aircraft delivered into Everett. LN 3 should be done about a month after LN 2 and LN 4 not too long after that as it was delivered mostly complete and with very little traveled work.
It is projected that LN 7 should be 98% complete by the time it arrives in Everett and LN 8 should be shop complete when those sections arrive in Everett for preintergration.
The question now is how will LN 2's first flight in the late summer impact on the certification and EIS of the 787?
FAA Approves 787 Schedule Maintenance Plan
From a Boeing Press Release, the FAA has approved Boeing's plan for the 787 schedule maintenance.
This plan dictates when and what sort of maintenance check are required for the airplane.
This plan dictates when and what sort of maintenance check are required for the airplane.
787 Schedule Confirmation
Thursday, December 18, 2008
787 Schedule
In light of the 787 schedule push back that Boeing revealed earlier this month I was able to learn from sources of the immediate schedule going forward.
First the main news: Boeing is hoping to schedule first flight for sometime around late April 2009. My guess: April 20th.
Around Dec. 23 to December 28th of this year, Dreamliner 1, ZA001, will have an aqueous wash of the wing fuel tanks. This indicates that the wing build and the wing instrumentation is pretty much complete. The aqueous wash is to remove carbon shavings and other contaminants from the wing fuel tanks. It's not known if it has to be rolled out of the assembly building for this wash.
The fastener replacement on ZA001 should be completed by the end of December.
ZA002 should have it's fastener replacment done by mid February but it may not have its first flight until August of 2009. I have not yet found out why ZA002 is so far behind and it could put the entire certification schedule for the 787 into disarray.
First the main news: Boeing is hoping to schedule first flight for sometime around late April 2009. My guess: April 20th.
Around Dec. 23 to December 28th of this year, Dreamliner 1, ZA001, will have an aqueous wash of the wing fuel tanks. This indicates that the wing build and the wing instrumentation is pretty much complete. The aqueous wash is to remove carbon shavings and other contaminants from the wing fuel tanks. It's not known if it has to be rolled out of the assembly building for this wash.
The fastener replacement on ZA001 should be completed by the end of December.
ZA002 should have it's fastener replacment done by mid February but it may not have its first flight until August of 2009. I have not yet found out why ZA002 is so far behind and it could put the entire certification schedule for the 787 into disarray.
ZA001 will leave building 40-26 (the final assembly building) for the paint shop around Feb. 24th to get a fresh coat of paint which should be done by March 2. After that ZA001 might go to 40-24 prior to going to the paint hanger though that has not been decided yet. ZA001 might be factory complete by Feb. 24th though there might be some traveled work taken out to the flight line.
Lastly, ZY998, the fatigue test air frame might be moved to the flight line prior to year end even though the build is not yet complete. No reason is known.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Breaking News: SPEEA and Boeing reaches 4 year contract deal
Just out on the newswires: SPEEA says that they reached a 4 year contract with Boeing. Details tonight.
The Seattle P-I also has the story here.
The Seattle P-I also has the story here.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
BREAKING: 787 not to fly in '08
This is breaking news that just came out on the newswires. Boeing announced that the 787 first flight will not take place by the end of the 4th quarter 2008. Boeing doesn't yet have a new timeline regarding the 787. This was reported by Vyonne Leach in response to questions and reported on Bloomberg. Read the Bloomberg story here.
This is on top of the news earlier today that Boeing found that about 3% of the fasteners on all four Dreamliners under final assembly were incorrectly installed. Read that report here and here.
This is on top of the news earlier today that Boeing found that about 3% of the fasteners on all four Dreamliners under final assembly were incorrectly installed. Read that report here and here.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Aviation Centers and museums
The former Grumman facilities at BethpageRichard Aboulafia wrote a great piece on his web site describing how aviation centers have disappeared and provides a convincing story of how commercial aircarft manufacturing can disappear from the Seattle area.
He uses the Long Island region (where I live) as an example. All that's left from Long Island's aviation tradition are a few museums and dilapidated buildings like the one's in Bethpage, NY. I live a couple miles away from Grumman's former industrial campus (in Bethpage) that and there is another one few miles away at Republic Airport in Farmingdale, NY which was the factory site of Republic Aircraft which built the P-47, F-105 and the A-10. There's a small museum there now. Will the IAM (and SPEEA) turn Everett and Renton into aviation museums. Looks like they've started that process. Read Richard's article here.
Friday, October 31, 2008
787 brake issue resolved
UPDATE : Matt Cawby posted a couple of pics showing trucks delivering 787 parts outside building 40-26. He also stated that the inboard wing flaps should be installed very soon and that the thrust reversers are on. See his post here. Also I talked to a 787 machinist and he's and some others he knows plan on voting yes on the contract. He feels that this is the best contract that they can get and if it's rejected then they won't get as good a contract. He also said that some people were misunderstanding the verbiage of the contract which was leading to misunderstandings of what is being proposed to the workers. He said that he'll be very, very unhappy if it's rejected.
According to Saj Ahmad of Fleetbuzz Editorial.com in an editorial that you can read here the brake issue that had threaten the 787 first flight (before any strike related delays came into play) have been resolved. Crane Aerospace have resolved the brake software issues.
This should clear the way for first flight depending on what happens this weekend and Boeing's own assessment of the 787 program post strike.
In the same article, Saj also reports that the A350 program is having issues of its own. The design freeze milestone was supposed to be this month. This milestone freezes the external configuration of the aircraft and starts the process for the detail design work to proceed.
Apparently Airbus is able to only do a partial design freeze. Saj reports that the final design freeze can slip to the 2nd quarter 2009 and can have consequences for Airbus' planned service entry in 2013.
According to Saj Ahmad of Fleetbuzz Editorial.com in an editorial that you can read here the brake issue that had threaten the 787 first flight (before any strike related delays came into play) have been resolved. Crane Aerospace have resolved the brake software issues.
This should clear the way for first flight depending on what happens this weekend and Boeing's own assessment of the 787 program post strike.
In the same article, Saj also reports that the A350 program is having issues of its own. The design freeze milestone was supposed to be this month. This milestone freezes the external configuration of the aircraft and starts the process for the detail design work to proceed.
Apparently Airbus is able to only do a partial design freeze. Saj reports that the final design freeze can slip to the 2nd quarter 2009 and can have consequences for Airbus' planned service entry in 2013.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Where does Boeing go from here?
Ok now that there is a tentative deal with IAM 751 with Boeing let's take a look at what happens here on out. First the IAM membership has to ratify the contract that it's leadership has unanimously endorsed to it's members.
Look for ratification by the end of this weekend at the very latest and the return to production very soon after that. I would say that Everett and Renton would be back on line before election day. at the latest.
Next up...SPEEA and those contract negotiations. While it is hard to predict, I do think that since SPEEA and IAM were coordinating to a point there efforts against Boeing management that the contract that was negotiated with IAM will essentially be the same contract that is presented to SPEEA and will be likely accepted by SPEEA. With the financial markets and the global economy in a tailspin it will not be in SPEEA's interest to go out on strike especially when Boeing gave a very good contract to IAM. I think this contract was aimed at both SPEEA as well as IAM and it will probably be enough to avoid and engineers strike on December 1st.
Now looking ahead to the 787, it is a pretty much a no brainer that the 787 first flight will not take place before December 31st, 2008. There is still plenty of work to do but let's assume that the work stoppage is ultimately 60 days (2 months) and add in 10 days for unknown unknowns, then first flight can possibly take place 70 days after the machinists return to work. I'm assuming that they return around November 1st so it is possible for the 787 first flight to take place as early as January 10th, 2009. But this is all dependent on many factors:
1) Before the strike Boeing was looking at factory completion of LN 1 around early to mid November which is about a month off thus the first flight could take place as early as February
2) Despite the strike there was work being done on LN 1. There was the crossing of the lines by some machinists who came under severe financial stress though it's not known if any were 787 machinists
3) LN 2 needs to be completed and under go vibration testing prior to first flight of LN 2. I hear that power may not even be on in this aircraft yet though that is unconfirmed.
Boeing will probably give a new schedule and production assessment after the machinist return to work but I think that it would be reasonable to assume that first flight will not occur until January to February 2009.
Lastly one thing to think about. The labor actions of the last couple months and the continuing negotiations with SPEEA has probably left a sour taste in the mouths of all involved. I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing starts the process of moving out airliner production out of Washington State into area which is less union friendly like Texas, Arizona an the US Southeast.
I think it's a no brainer that commercial aircraft production is on its way out at Everett. It'll probably start with 787 production moving to San Antonio and then possibly followed by 777 and 737 moving to a state(s) where the unions are not highly regarded like Alabama or South Carolina. IAM has ultimately shot itself in the foot. Certainly the Yellowstone 3 (large widebody) and Yellowstone 1 (737 RS) will be built at another location.
Look for ratification by the end of this weekend at the very latest and the return to production very soon after that. I would say that Everett and Renton would be back on line before election day. at the latest.
Next up...SPEEA and those contract negotiations. While it is hard to predict, I do think that since SPEEA and IAM were coordinating to a point there efforts against Boeing management that the contract that was negotiated with IAM will essentially be the same contract that is presented to SPEEA and will be likely accepted by SPEEA. With the financial markets and the global economy in a tailspin it will not be in SPEEA's interest to go out on strike especially when Boeing gave a very good contract to IAM. I think this contract was aimed at both SPEEA as well as IAM and it will probably be enough to avoid and engineers strike on December 1st.
Now looking ahead to the 787, it is a pretty much a no brainer that the 787 first flight will not take place before December 31st, 2008. There is still plenty of work to do but let's assume that the work stoppage is ultimately 60 days (2 months) and add in 10 days for unknown unknowns, then first flight can possibly take place 70 days after the machinists return to work. I'm assuming that they return around November 1st so it is possible for the 787 first flight to take place as early as January 10th, 2009. But this is all dependent on many factors:
1) Before the strike Boeing was looking at factory completion of LN 1 around early to mid November which is about a month off thus the first flight could take place as early as February
2) Despite the strike there was work being done on LN 1. There was the crossing of the lines by some machinists who came under severe financial stress though it's not known if any were 787 machinists
3) LN 2 needs to be completed and under go vibration testing prior to first flight of LN 2. I hear that power may not even be on in this aircraft yet though that is unconfirmed.
Boeing will probably give a new schedule and production assessment after the machinist return to work but I think that it would be reasonable to assume that first flight will not occur until January to February 2009.
Lastly one thing to think about. The labor actions of the last couple months and the continuing negotiations with SPEEA has probably left a sour taste in the mouths of all involved. I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing starts the process of moving out airliner production out of Washington State into area which is less union friendly like Texas, Arizona an the US Southeast.
I think it's a no brainer that commercial aircraft production is on its way out at Everett. It'll probably start with 787 production moving to San Antonio and then possibly followed by 777 and 737 moving to a state(s) where the unions are not highly regarded like Alabama or South Carolina. IAM has ultimately shot itself in the foot. Certainly the Yellowstone 3 (large widebody) and Yellowstone 1 (737 RS) will be built at another location.
Monday, October 27, 2008
BREAKING: IAM and Boeing reach tentative deal
Just out on the wires:
"SEATTLE - A Machinists union spokesman has reported a tentative settlement to end a strike that has shut down Boeing Co.'s commercial airplane operations since Sept. 6.
Francis "Frank" Larkin, a spokesman for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in Washington, D.C., told The Associated Press the deal was reached Monday evening.
Boeing spokesman Tim Healy in Seattle says he's checking on the report. The apparent breakthrough came on the fifth day of talks at the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service in the nation's capital.
Full details were not immediately available, but according to the union's Web site, it's a four-year deal. A vote will take place in three-to-five days, once all members have had a chance to look it over.
IAM workers went on strike Sept. 6, three days after Boeing's last offer was rejected with an 87 percent strike vote. Two days of last-ditch talks to avoid a strike failed, and another round of negotiations this month collapsed in the second day.
The union represents about 25,000 workers in and around Seattle, 1,500 in Gresham, Ore., and 750 in Wichita, Kan. Key issues include job security, wages, retirement benefits and medical coverage.
But the Machinists union isn't the only one locking horns with the Boeing Company these days.
SPEEA, the union representing engineers and technical workers also has more than 20,000 members in Puget Sound. Contract talks will enter their final phase at a Seattle-area hotel Tuesday. SPEEA's two contracts, one covering professionals and the other hourly technical workers, expire Dec. 1
“If they present a last, best and final offer that doesn't reward these employees for the success they brought to the company, they may very well vote to strike,” said Ray Goforth, SPEEA Executive Director.Take the issue of outsourcing. It's not only a big issue for Machinists who want to keep outside contractors out of the plants, but also for engineers, only the issue is different.
For example, SPEEA says the company tried to outsource too much engineering work on the 787, not to mention most of the parts, leading to more than a year-and-a-half’s worth of delays. The engineers want a say in the next airplane.
“That the engineering and technical employees have a serious voice in how it's set up. There are components of these planes where it makes sense to outsource and some components where it doesn't make sense to outsource,” said Goforth.
SPEEA has only had one major strike -- 40 days in 2000. The company says it is optimistic a deal can be reached in the next few weeks and a strike averted.
“We feel we have a process that works. It's worked the past couple of contracts. In fact, the contracts Boeing's offered has been approved by 80 percent of the voters,” said Boeing spokeswoman Karen Fincutter. "
Also read IAM press release about the settlement here.
"SEATTLE - A Machinists union spokesman has reported a tentative settlement to end a strike that has shut down Boeing Co.'s commercial airplane operations since Sept. 6.
Francis "Frank" Larkin, a spokesman for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in Washington, D.C., told The Associated Press the deal was reached Monday evening.
Boeing spokesman Tim Healy in Seattle says he's checking on the report. The apparent breakthrough came on the fifth day of talks at the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service in the nation's capital.
Full details were not immediately available, but according to the union's Web site, it's a four-year deal. A vote will take place in three-to-five days, once all members have had a chance to look it over.
IAM workers went on strike Sept. 6, three days after Boeing's last offer was rejected with an 87 percent strike vote. Two days of last-ditch talks to avoid a strike failed, and another round of negotiations this month collapsed in the second day.
The union represents about 25,000 workers in and around Seattle, 1,500 in Gresham, Ore., and 750 in Wichita, Kan. Key issues include job security, wages, retirement benefits and medical coverage.
But the Machinists union isn't the only one locking horns with the Boeing Company these days.
SPEEA, the union representing engineers and technical workers also has more than 20,000 members in Puget Sound. Contract talks will enter their final phase at a Seattle-area hotel Tuesday. SPEEA's two contracts, one covering professionals and the other hourly technical workers, expire Dec. 1
“If they present a last, best and final offer that doesn't reward these employees for the success they brought to the company, they may very well vote to strike,” said Ray Goforth, SPEEA Executive Director.Take the issue of outsourcing. It's not only a big issue for Machinists who want to keep outside contractors out of the plants, but also for engineers, only the issue is different.
For example, SPEEA says the company tried to outsource too much engineering work on the 787, not to mention most of the parts, leading to more than a year-and-a-half’s worth of delays. The engineers want a say in the next airplane.
“That the engineering and technical employees have a serious voice in how it's set up. There are components of these planes where it makes sense to outsource and some components where it doesn't make sense to outsource,” said Goforth.
SPEEA has only had one major strike -- 40 days in 2000. The company says it is optimistic a deal can be reached in the next few weeks and a strike averted.
“We feel we have a process that works. It's worked the past couple of contracts. In fact, the contracts Boeing's offered has been approved by 80 percent of the voters,” said Boeing spokeswoman Karen Fincutter. "
Also read IAM press release about the settlement here.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Vought may shut down North Charleston plant
In a press release, Vought is considering shutting down it's 787 operations in North Charleston. Currently, Vought has stopped production of the rear fuselage section (sections 47 and 48), reduced outside contractors, and redeployed most of the current workforce towards completing the existing sections (up to airplane 19).
Here is the relevant section of the press release pertaining to Vought's 787 production:
"787 Dreamliner Program A number of actions are being taken on the 787 program at Vought’s North Charleston facility because of the continuing Boeing IAM strike, coupled with the effects of previous 787 program schedule delays. Given that Vought has already fabricated enough barrels to support deliveries through airplane 19, the company must continue to slow its production rate and take the necessary actions across the program. Up until now, Vought has only released most of its outside assembly contractor workforce. Today, in addition to continuing this action, the company announced it is suspending its 787 composite bond fabrication operations, which will affect production and production support personnel. Assembly employees will also be redeployed to concentrate on existing fuselages closest to completion. Over the next 30 days, a variety of additional actions related to its 787 program activities are being considered, including the possible temporary shutdown of the entire plant. “This is a challenging time for all of us who support the Dreamliner program,“ said Joy Romero, vice president and general manager, 787 Program. “Since the beginning of the Boeing strike, we’ve been looking at ways to mitigate potential employee job loss in North Charleston, including the initial reduction of outside contract labor. We plan to work with our employees to identify temporary redeployment opportunities at other Vought locations, where possible. This activity will require everyone’s patience, focused attention, and best effort to ensure a smooth continuation of required work activities, while continuing to provide customer support.”
Here is the relevant section of the press release pertaining to Vought's 787 production:
"787 Dreamliner Program A number of actions are being taken on the 787 program at Vought’s North Charleston facility because of the continuing Boeing IAM strike, coupled with the effects of previous 787 program schedule delays. Given that Vought has already fabricated enough barrels to support deliveries through airplane 19, the company must continue to slow its production rate and take the necessary actions across the program. Up until now, Vought has only released most of its outside assembly contractor workforce. Today, in addition to continuing this action, the company announced it is suspending its 787 composite bond fabrication operations, which will affect production and production support personnel. Assembly employees will also be redeployed to concentrate on existing fuselages closest to completion. Over the next 30 days, a variety of additional actions related to its 787 program activities are being considered, including the possible temporary shutdown of the entire plant. “This is a challenging time for all of us who support the Dreamliner program,“ said Joy Romero, vice president and general manager, 787 Program. “Since the beginning of the Boeing strike, we’ve been looking at ways to mitigate potential employee job loss in North Charleston, including the initial reduction of outside contract labor. We plan to work with our employees to identify temporary redeployment opportunities at other Vought locations, where possible. This activity will require everyone’s patience, focused attention, and best effort to ensure a smooth continuation of required work activities, while continuing to provide customer support.”
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
AMR to buy the 787
(Image Courtesy of American Airlines)Well after years of waiting AMR, the parent of American Airlines is finally buying the 787. The surprise is that they are buying 42 of the larger 787-9s and not the 787-8. It was widely assumed that when AA pulled the trigger on the 787 order it would be for the -8 version. AMR also has options on 58 more 787s for delivery between 2015 and 2020.
Now this is not a finalized order, it's only a purchase agreement. First delivery is for September 2012 but AA must give Boeing notice of its intent to pay for and take delivery of each 787 18 months prior to delivery. AMR said in its press release that it must conclude a new contract with its pilots union prior to going forward. This means that AMR must conclude an agreement by March 2011 in order for this purchase agreement to be finalized with Boeing.
This part reminds all of us of the issue that Air Canada had when it pursued it's widebody fleet renewal with Boeing. AC had to also finalize a contract with its own pilots union before the purchase agreement could be finalized. When the pilots union rejected managements contract (due to infighting within the union) the contract was scuttled only to be resurrected some months later after the union issues were resolved.
Boeing is still dealing with its own union issues and there is no end in sight unfortunately. 787 #1 is almost all ready and was probably about a month from being shop complete when the strike hit. The engines are on and the static test airframe passed the critical high blow tests in late September with two more critical tests that need to be completed before first flight (those should be close to being completed by the end of the month). However, Dreamliner 2 must also be completed prior to first flight in order to undertake vibrations tests before first flight. Al in all it looks like first flight will be pushed to January - February of 2009 at the earliest.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Effects of the strike on the 787
About a week and a half ago a Boeing 747 LCF made a routine delivery flight from Nagoya, Japan to Charleston, SC stopping in Anchorage, Alaska to refuel. Now typically these delivery flight are routine and usually not the subject of a blog entry but with the IAM strike going on at Boeing, it does underscore a couple of things about the what is happening with Boeing’s production model and it’s relationship with outside contractors and its labor unions.
First let’s look at the 787 as of late last week. Jon Ostrower, reported in his blog that ZA001 had its nose cone attached and that the airplane is sitting on its wheels which means that the landing gear swing tests seem to have been completed. Jon also says that he saw flight test equipment on the airplane. Right now the impediment to Boeing getting the plane out the door (other than the strike) is getting the remaining flight test and cabin equipment installed on board as well as knock on effects from some small systems integration issues. Schedule margin is tight without the strike as it is and Jon and Scott Hamilton reported that first flight would be delayed as much as 5 weeks (into mid December at the latest) before any strike effects.
Adding to the pressure of the 787 program is a report by Geoffrey Thomas saying that the production problems on the 787 are hurting new sales of the airplane. Apparently, delivery slots are not available until 2020 which means that the impact of the production problems have effectively pushed out the earliest delivery slots by about 2 to 3 years unless Boeing can manage an orderly increase of 787 output to about 14/month.
Now because there is strike on doesn’t mean that work on the 787 has come to a grinding halt as evidenced by the LCF flights this week. The tier 1 contractors like Global Aeronautica, Vought and Mitsubishi will continue to produce their respective work packages for as long as they possibly can (without shipping further sections and wings to Everett). Depending on when the strike ends, this work during the strike period will eliminate traveled work going to Everett. Boeing can restart production on LN 5 when those parts arrive with no traveled work to be done thus utilizing the 787 production line in a manner it was intended. This can only help in increasing the production rate of the 787 in the near term. So while the strike is on going at Boeing that hasn’t completely bought the 787 production to a grinding halt and may in fact help the production system recover fully by the time the strike ends. One note to all this is that some Boeing’s 787 suppliers are starting to cut back on production, namely Spirit has said they are cutting back on production on some of the products they supply to Boeing without citing any specific Boeing programs. At the end of the day there will be progress in the suppliers’ efforts to clean up the production mess and get their end of the business back on track because of the strike. If Boeing can get its end in order then the production model for the 787 can be a big success.
Read an AP report here.
That all said the question that should be asked (and so far has not) is the IAM being very short sighted in its on the issue of outsourcing. James Bell Boeing’s CFO said at a conference yesterday:
The union, he said, "would like all of the work to be done in the Puget Sound area and that's not realistic." Boeing, he explained, would like "complete flexibility" to outsource work to suppliers; "We have to figure out what's the right balance."
There is nothing that could stop Boeing from selling its Renton and Everett plants to an investor thus turning Boeing into a pure systems integrator and having Renton and Everett bid on work packages much like other firms did when they went shopping for suppliers for the 787. We’ve already seen that happen with Boeing Wichita when those operations were sold to Onex Corp. and was renamed Spirit Aerosystems. Is something like that going to happen, probably no but it is plausible. It is one thing for the IAM to fight for better wages and health care benefits for their membership and their retirees but it is another thing to try and dictate to Boeing management what can be built where in a world of tight margins and intense price competition from Airbus. To see how much things have changed Spirit is going to be building fuselage panels for the A350 for Airbus. Clearly outsourcing is not just an American phenomenon but a global one and Boeing competes on a global stage.
First let’s look at the 787 as of late last week. Jon Ostrower, reported in his blog that ZA001 had its nose cone attached and that the airplane is sitting on its wheels which means that the landing gear swing tests seem to have been completed. Jon also says that he saw flight test equipment on the airplane. Right now the impediment to Boeing getting the plane out the door (other than the strike) is getting the remaining flight test and cabin equipment installed on board as well as knock on effects from some small systems integration issues. Schedule margin is tight without the strike as it is and Jon and Scott Hamilton reported that first flight would be delayed as much as 5 weeks (into mid December at the latest) before any strike effects.
Adding to the pressure of the 787 program is a report by Geoffrey Thomas saying that the production problems on the 787 are hurting new sales of the airplane. Apparently, delivery slots are not available until 2020 which means that the impact of the production problems have effectively pushed out the earliest delivery slots by about 2 to 3 years unless Boeing can manage an orderly increase of 787 output to about 14/month.
Now because there is strike on doesn’t mean that work on the 787 has come to a grinding halt as evidenced by the LCF flights this week. The tier 1 contractors like Global Aeronautica, Vought and Mitsubishi will continue to produce their respective work packages for as long as they possibly can (without shipping further sections and wings to Everett). Depending on when the strike ends, this work during the strike period will eliminate traveled work going to Everett. Boeing can restart production on LN 5 when those parts arrive with no traveled work to be done thus utilizing the 787 production line in a manner it was intended. This can only help in increasing the production rate of the 787 in the near term. So while the strike is on going at Boeing that hasn’t completely bought the 787 production to a grinding halt and may in fact help the production system recover fully by the time the strike ends. One note to all this is that some Boeing’s 787 suppliers are starting to cut back on production, namely Spirit has said they are cutting back on production on some of the products they supply to Boeing without citing any specific Boeing programs. At the end of the day there will be progress in the suppliers’ efforts to clean up the production mess and get their end of the business back on track because of the strike. If Boeing can get its end in order then the production model for the 787 can be a big success.
Read an AP report here.
That all said the question that should be asked (and so far has not) is the IAM being very short sighted in its on the issue of outsourcing. James Bell Boeing’s CFO said at a conference yesterday:
The union, he said, "would like all of the work to be done in the Puget Sound area and that's not realistic." Boeing, he explained, would like "complete flexibility" to outsource work to suppliers; "We have to figure out what's the right balance."
There is nothing that could stop Boeing from selling its Renton and Everett plants to an investor thus turning Boeing into a pure systems integrator and having Renton and Everett bid on work packages much like other firms did when they went shopping for suppliers for the 787. We’ve already seen that happen with Boeing Wichita when those operations were sold to Onex Corp. and was renamed Spirit Aerosystems. Is something like that going to happen, probably no but it is plausible. It is one thing for the IAM to fight for better wages and health care benefits for their membership and their retirees but it is another thing to try and dictate to Boeing management what can be built where in a world of tight margins and intense price competition from Airbus. To see how much things have changed Spirit is going to be building fuselage panels for the A350 for Airbus. Clearly outsourcing is not just an American phenomenon but a global one and Boeing competes on a global stage.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Gulf Air increases 787 order
With the strike looming over Boeing's head like the Sword of Damocles, the builder of the 787 received some good news when Gulf Air exercised 8 787 options. If this is firm order that is booked tomorrow in Boeing's weekly order update then the exercise of this options would take Boeing to over 900 787 on firm order. Gulf Air currently has 16 787-8 on order with the 8 options.
You can read the article from Gulf Daily New here.
You can read the article from Gulf Daily New here.
LCFs evacuate Charleston
Two of Boeing LCFs left Charleston, SC this morning. The two flight plans filed showed one aircraft heading to Pinal Airpark in Arizona and another heading for Anchorage, Alaska. Here are the flightaware flight plans here and here.
Hurricane Hannah is over Bermuda and the current projected track shows it heading to the Charleston, SC area by Saturday morning. I'm not sure what other preparations Vought, Boeing and Alenia are making for the 787 plant in Charleston.
Hurricane Hannah is over Bermuda and the current projected track shows it heading to the Charleston, SC area by Saturday morning. I'm not sure what other preparations Vought, Boeing and Alenia are making for the 787 plant in Charleston.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Flightblogger reports possible 787 schedule slip
Jon Ostrower is reporting that there may be a schedule slip to the 1st flight of the 787 from mid December to possibly into early January, 2009. The reason behind the potential delay is not related to the potential strike by the IAM but rather to outfitting ZA001 with flight test and other cabin equipment. Also there was some time consuming trouble shooting related to some small systems integration issues but the net result of all this is eating up mostif not all the margin that program managers had left for themselves.
Read Jon's story here.
Read Jon's story here.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Countdown to a strike?
With Boeing's best and final offer out for the IAM and it's membership to study, a countdown has started towards midnight, September 4th. Boeing's offer called for a 11% increase in wages over three years. IAM was looking for 9 to 13% over the same period but was targeting the upper range of that number. An interesting offer was giving each worker $2,500 if they approve the new contract by September 3rd. Clearly, they're trying to talk directly to the machinists. There was also substantial improvements in benefits and Boeing has taken many issues off the table that IAM had objected to including moving to a 401(k) style retirement plan. One thing that Boeing is holding a line on is outsourcing which has formed the backbone of the 787 manufacturing process.
One experienced Everett employee that I talked to termed the final offer as "complete BS" as he'll receive only a pay increase of amounting to only $.25/hour and that new hires behind would essentially be making the same as him. He feels that he's not being paid for the time that he's put in.
Clearly there is dissatisfaction in the IAM ranks over this contract. However, there will be quite a few who will support it. I think particularly the older machinists will be more inclined to support this proposal because of the improvements in the wage and health care options. Boeing's strategy is to repeat what happened in 2002. In that negotiation 62% of the machinists voted against Boeing's proposal. But since they needed a 67% vote majority to go out on strike the proposal was automatically triggered and was forced upon the union membership. Clearly Boeing is hoping that this will be the case this time around.
This could have consequences 3 years from now if this happens as it could lead to a lot of bitterness within the membership that can result in a strike in 2011. We'll know in a few hours what the union leadership will recommend to it's membership.
One experienced Everett employee that I talked to termed the final offer as "complete BS" as he'll receive only a pay increase of amounting to only $.25/hour and that new hires behind would essentially be making the same as him. He feels that he's not being paid for the time that he's put in.
Clearly there is dissatisfaction in the IAM ranks over this contract. However, there will be quite a few who will support it. I think particularly the older machinists will be more inclined to support this proposal because of the improvements in the wage and health care options. Boeing's strategy is to repeat what happened in 2002. In that negotiation 62% of the machinists voted against Boeing's proposal. But since they needed a 67% vote majority to go out on strike the proposal was automatically triggered and was forced upon the union membership. Clearly Boeing is hoping that this will be the case this time around.
This could have consequences 3 years from now if this happens as it could lead to a lot of bitterness within the membership that can result in a strike in 2011. We'll know in a few hours what the union leadership will recommend to it's membership.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Update on large 787 order to be announced
Earlier this week I got information that there will be an announcement of a new 787 operator by around mid-September. Well I've been digging and digging and so far I'm half way to China!
While I've been unable to find out who the new purchaser is I can reveal that the customer who ordered the 23 787 that Boeing booked in January 2008 had ordered two 787 earlier and that those two 787 are for the same unidentified customer. So in a way the customer is not a new customer because they had placed an earlier order for two frames but they are a new operator that has yet to be revealed. So this unknown new operator does have 25 787s on order.
While I've been unable to find out who the new purchaser is I can reveal that the customer who ordered the 23 787 that Boeing booked in January 2008 had ordered two 787 earlier and that those two 787 are for the same unidentified customer. So in a way the customer is not a new customer because they had placed an earlier order for two frames but they are a new operator that has yet to be revealed. So this unknown new operator does have 25 787s on order.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
787 production slow down
News out of Charleston, SC that Vought will temporarily stop producing the rear fuselage barrels for the 787 is the first indication that the bottleneck at Everett may not improve for a few months. An article in Charleston's Post and Courier News quotes Elmer Doty as saying that they do plan on resuming production of the rear fuselages later this year. It looks like Vought's line is as full as it can be especially since they're shipping only one complete rear fuselage section each month. Additionally, Spirit is also slowing its production of 787 forward fuselages.
The production issues and the travelled work all contributed to a bottleneck at Boeing's Everett's plant where scaffolding has to be put up around the air frames that have delivered thus far in order to finish all the travelled work. That as well as other issues has hindered Boeing from pulling out even one shop complete 787.
While the rest of the supply chain seems to be recovering, Boeing is still dealing with the issues left behind from the earlier issues thus the suppliers will have to slow down their production though it does seem that Global Aeronautica does have room and doesn't need to slow down their production of main fuselages.
This production slow down will allow Boeing to catch up with the rest of the supply chain as well as allow the tier one suppliers to ensure that all their respective work packages are appropraitely stuffed when shipped to Everett. However it will probably allow them to deliver only the 25 787 as they've indicated unless there is a significant improvement in the production rate (which would be necessitated by a steep learning curve on the 787 line). Once Boeing's 787 manufacturing technicians are fully up to speed on working on the 787 final assembly line as Boeing has intended (without any travelled work or any other engineering issues) then production can be ramped up to the 10/month or more.
The production issues and the travelled work all contributed to a bottleneck at Boeing's Everett's plant where scaffolding has to be put up around the air frames that have delivered thus far in order to finish all the travelled work. That as well as other issues has hindered Boeing from pulling out even one shop complete 787.
While the rest of the supply chain seems to be recovering, Boeing is still dealing with the issues left behind from the earlier issues thus the suppliers will have to slow down their production though it does seem that Global Aeronautica does have room and doesn't need to slow down their production of main fuselages.
This production slow down will allow Boeing to catch up with the rest of the supply chain as well as allow the tier one suppliers to ensure that all their respective work packages are appropraitely stuffed when shipped to Everett. However it will probably allow them to deliver only the 25 787 as they've indicated unless there is a significant improvement in the production rate (which would be necessitated by a steep learning curve on the 787 line). Once Boeing's 787 manufacturing technicians are fully up to speed on working on the 787 final assembly line as Boeing has intended (without any travelled work or any other engineering issues) then production can be ramped up to the 10/month or more.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
787 Landing Gear Test and new 787 order coming soon?
Image Courtesy of BoeingDreamliner 1 started landing gear tests 3 days ago (August 9th). This is a major milestone confirming that the electrical, hydraulics and avionics systems are working together. Initially each gear (left main, right main and nose) were tested individually and then all were tested together. The gear swing tests is top replicate how the landing gear would work as if in actual flight. In order to do this, Boeing jacked the airplane off its landing gear. These tests will continue for the next few days presumably also testing the opening and closing of the landing gear doors as well.
Jon Ostrower is also reporting that Boeing will have a video available of the gear tests available soon. I'll try to post it here (once I've figured out how to do that)!
UPDATE: The video and more pics of the gear swing is here. Boeing even got some amazing footage inside the wheel well as the gear is retracted into it.
New 787 Customer?
In other 787 news, I learned from multiple sources that Boeing will reveal a buyer of 23 787-8s as early as next month. Boeing booked a 23 order from an unidentified customer back in January of this year. Since this order was booked, speculation has been rampant on the web that it must be a current customer who has already purchased the 787 and has a large number of options that they can exercised. Air Canada (who has 23 unexercised 787 options) became the prime suspect. The buyer was not revealed at Farnborough (I guess they didn't want to compete with all the other news coming out of the air show) but I have since learned that this order may be for a new 787 operator. I've also learned from sources that the customer is NOT a North American or European customer. One source told me that it probably is a company that is not subject to regulatory fillings where large material purchases such as 23 787 would have to be disclosed.
So who can it be? Well it can be an Asian, Middle Eastern or South American customer in my opinion. Those are the only regions of the world that have airlines that don't have to reveal this purchase in regulatory filings in addition to being able to afford to buy a large number of widebody aircraft and who has not previously purchased the 787. From these regions we could probably look at airlines like Thai, TAM, Emirates, Garuda Indonesia, Malaysian or even Iraq Airways (with the help of US govt. loans or the $49 bn surplus the Iraqi govt. has). One source speculated to me that TAM is going to take delivery of 4 777-300ERs in September and wouldn't the delivery ceremony make a great opportunity to announce a TAM order for the 787. This is a company that has already bought 12 A350-800, 10 A350-900 and 15 A330-200. The 787-8 would be a great size for TAM for which Airbus' only competitor in the 787-8 size category is the A330-200 (the A350-800 competes with the 787-9 and the A350-900 would compete with the 777-200ER and the proposed 787-10) and the 767-300ERs that TAM recently leased out.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, Part 3
Jon's final part reviews the progress on the 5 remaining 787 to be used in the flight test and certification program. Dreamliner 2, it seems, is going to really feel the effects of the travelled work because a lot of attention has been focused on getting Dreamliner 1 prepared.
Read Jon's report here.
Read Jon's report here.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, part 2
Jon Ostrower continues his three part series this time updating us on the supply chain with particular emphasis on Global Aeronautica. GA seems to be the slowest cog in the wheel and it remains to be seen if they can sufficiently up the rates. It took them 11 months to send ouver the center section for Dreamliner 4 and it wasn't 100% complete but close.
They need to get up the learning curve and do it fast.
Read Jon's report here.
They need to get up the learning curve and do it fast.
Read Jon's report here.
787 Brakes
Currently the only issue that stands between the 787 and it flying is the brake monitoring software (the labor issues notwithstanding).
Crane Co, GE, Smith and Boeing haven't really given a status update on this issue as of yet but it certainly doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or not. Pat Shanahan has said that this issue is helping to eat up some of the schedule margin that the program has which cannot be a good thing. How much margin is left is unclear but in Jon Ostrower's blog, Boeing plans to have all hardware certified for safety of flight and ready to go for first flight by the end of the third week of August at the latest.
Now with the brake monitoring system.
The hardware is fine and the software has been written. Crane has to verify the software works and along with that Crane also has to collect all the documentation (and perhaps even prepare documentation) related to the brake monitoring software for Safety of Flight certification, in other words the system can't be used until the FAA know that it's safe even for flight testing.
According to Pat Shanahan (quoted in Jon's blog), everything except for the brakes will safety of flight certified by the end of the third week of August at the latest. When that will take place is a matter of speculation but my guess is around late August to mid September. It will probably go inside the 767 hanger for some final assembly activities and perhaps installation of some flight test equipment and then outside for ground testing.
Crane Co, GE, Smith and Boeing haven't really given a status update on this issue as of yet but it certainly doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or not. Pat Shanahan has said that this issue is helping to eat up some of the schedule margin that the program has which cannot be a good thing. How much margin is left is unclear but in Jon Ostrower's blog, Boeing plans to have all hardware certified for safety of flight and ready to go for first flight by the end of the third week of August at the latest.
Now with the brake monitoring system.
The hardware is fine and the software has been written. Crane has to verify the software works and along with that Crane also has to collect all the documentation (and perhaps even prepare documentation) related to the brake monitoring software for Safety of Flight certification, in other words the system can't be used until the FAA know that it's safe even for flight testing.
According to Pat Shanahan (quoted in Jon's blog), everything except for the brakes will safety of flight certified by the end of the third week of August at the latest. When that will take place is a matter of speculation but my guess is around late August to mid September. It will probably go inside the 767 hanger for some final assembly activities and perhaps installation of some flight test equipment and then outside for ground testing.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, Part 1
Jon Ostrower just posted a detailed update on the 787. It'll be in three parts with the first part here. The second part will deal with the supply chain and the last part will deal with Dreamliners 2 through 6.
There are two big issues between now and first flight: the brake monitoring issue and the labor contract negotiations with IAM. The later, in my opinion, represents the greatest risk to the 787 schedule. If there is a long strike then production could be significantly set back that delivering even 25 787s in 2009 will be very difficult. Boeing knows this and IAM leadership knows this and will be dealing from a position of strength. It'll be in Boeing's best interest to settle with IAM before Sept. 1st to ensure the 787 program continues uninterrupted.
There are two big issues between now and first flight: the brake monitoring issue and the labor contract negotiations with IAM. The later, in my opinion, represents the greatest risk to the 787 schedule. If there is a long strike then production could be significantly set back that delivering even 25 787s in 2009 will be very difficult. Boeing knows this and IAM leadership knows this and will be dealing from a position of strength. It'll be in Boeing's best interest to settle with IAM before Sept. 1st to ensure the 787 program continues uninterrupted.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Dreamliner 4 to start assembly soon
UPDATE: Another LCF just left Charleston with the main fuselage for Dreamliner 4. See it here.
The nose section for Dreamliner 4 should be in Everett later today thus setting the stage for the start of final assembly. The Dreamlifter is already in Wichita and has filed a flight plan to go on to Everett. No word yet on when the repaired main fusealge section is due in Everett but my guess is by tomorrow.
The nose section for Dreamliner 4 should be in Everett later today thus setting the stage for the start of final assembly. The Dreamlifter is already in Wichita and has filed a flight plan to go on to Everett. No word yet on when the repaired main fusealge section is due in Everett but my guess is by tomorrow.
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