Dreamliner 1 Update

My source has told me that Dreamliner 1 is close to start landing gear test inside the final assembly plant in Everett. While the airplane is still on its gear, it looks like Boeing is prepping to jack the airplane off its landing gear soon and that would mean that the gear swing tests should start shortly. There are jacks that are positioned under the wings and much of the scaffolding that surrounded the airplane, particularly around the wings is now gone. The aircraft is still not 100% finished. The engine cowl is only on the left engine and there are still a bunch of access panels that need to be reinstalled.

787 Production Update

UPDATE II (7/30/2008): The start of final assembly of LN 4 has been pushed back to August 4, 2008. The Dreamlifter did not deliver any fusealge section from Wichita. It had a fuselage transport fixture that was returned to Japan yesterday when it flew from Charleston to Wichita then to Everett and then on to Nagoya.

UPDATE (7/28/2008): I just got word that LN 1 should be pulled out of the final assembly building just prior to the start of final assembly of LN 5 (projected to be around end of August). It'll go to building 40-24 (the 767 line) and then around September to the paint hanger to re-paint some of the sections (with all the work in the past year, some of the original paint was sure to have come off with all the assembly activities).

Lastly, one of the Dreamlifters might delivering the forward fuselage for LN 4 to Everett today as it filed a flight plan.


I just got word that the fourth flying 787 (LN 4) will enter final assembly on July 29th; one month later than expected due to the repair to the damage on the main fuselage. This ties closely to what I reported earlier that the two remaining sections (the forward fuselage and main fuselage) should be delivered around this weekend or early next week.

American Airlines 767 with winglets

Jon Ostrower posted some pics and an article of the first American Airlines 767-300ER fitted out with Aviation Partners Boeing winglets. Read it here here and here. AA and Aviation Partners will flight test the 767 for the next four months for FAA certification. Read the press release here.

What does this mean for a potential AA 787 order. In my opinion it really doesn't change anything. Boeing's backlog for the 787 is out to 2017 or so and AA is in no financial position to order the 787. They want to get rid of the MD-80s in their fleet first and replace them with the 737NGs. In the meantime they can refit the 767s with the winglets to achieve a 5 to 6 percent fuel savings. AA will be in no hurry to replace the 767s just yet but they will probably start to take a look at the 787 in a couple years.

Short 787 Update

This morning on Boeing's 2nd quarter earnings conference call, Jim McNerney revealed that LN 1 had its hydraulics powered on this past weekend and Boeing engineers tested some of the movable flight surfaces. He also said that airplane 1 is structurally complete but that there is a few more systems related installations that need to be accomplished at this point. He also reiterated that Boeing is on track for first flight in the 4th quarter and that they are either on or slightly ahead of their schedule.

I found out this evening that position 1 where all the major pieces are assembled together, is being prepped for LN 4 though the main fuselage and the forward fuselage have not been delivered. Those sections should be in soon and my guess is that this will take place around the end of this weekend or Monday.

Lastly, workers are attached the cowling on the left engine of LN 1 today.

Jon Ostrower also posted a short 787 update where he revealed that the elevators are not yet installed on the aircraft. Read his article here.

Farnborough 2008, Final Order summary

Farnborough 2008

July 17th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

Synergy Aerospace orders 10 A350-800 from Airbus
Alis Aerolinee Italiane orders 5 A330F with 3 options from Airbus (MoU)

July 16th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

Malaysia Airlines orders 35 737-800 from Boeing (previously booked) along with 20 options
Asiana order 30 A350s with 10 more options from Airbus
An unidentified customer order 20 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
AMA Asset Management orders 5 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
Malev Orders 4 Q400 from Bombardier
Aviation Capital Group ordered 15 737-700 from Boeing
Ilyushin Finance ordered 31 TU-204SM-100 from Tupolev

July 15th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

Qatar Airways orders 4 A321 from Airbus with 2 A321 options (MoU)
Tunis Air orders 10 A320, 3 A330, and 3 A350 from Airbus
Arik Air orders 7 737-800 (previously booked) and an LoI for 4 747-8I
Avialeasing order 24 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi with 16 options
Aviation Capital Group order 23 A320 from Airbus
DAE firms 70 A320 and 30 A350 from Airbus* (this is a firming of an order that was announced in Nov. 2007 at the Dubai Air Show)
Aeroflot orders 5 A321 from Airbus
Air China orders 15 777-300ER and 30 737-800s from Boeing (both of these have been previously booked in 2007, signed in Farnborough on 7/17/08)

July 14th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

Bombardier launches C Series of short/medium haul aircraft with an LoI for 30 aircraft from Lufthansa
FlyDubai orders 50 737-800 aircraft (a new order) (with ability to change to 737-900ER), will take 4 737-800 on lease from Babcock
Etihad order 35 787-9 (previously booked) along with 10 777-300ER (also previously booked). They have also taken the following options and rights: 25 options on 787 and 10 options on 777, 10 rights on the 787 and 5 on 777.
Saudi Arabian Airlines order 8 A330-300 from Airbus
Niki orders 5 E190s from Embrarer
NASAIR orders 5 E190s from Embraer
Aeromexico orders 12 E190s from Embrarer
Etihad order 20 A320, 25 A350 and 10 A380 from Airbus. They have taken the following options and rights: 5 A320 options, 10 A350 options, 5 A380 options; 15 A320 rights, 15 A350 rights and 5 A380 rights.

Running Totals:

Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321 (MoU)
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350* (Was announced at the Dubai Air Show but final contract signed at Farnborough)
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Synergy Aerospace – 10 x A350-800
Alis Aerolinee Italiane – 5 x A330F (MoU)

Airbus Total – 256 (247 firm orders, 9 MoU)

Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777-300ER and 30 x 737-800** (signed at Farnborough on 7/17/08)
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700

Boeing Total – 201 (197 firm, 4 LoI)

Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400

Bombardier Total – 34 (30 LoI)

Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190

Embrarer Total – 22 (all firm)

Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100

Sukhoi Total – 49

Tupolev:
Ilyushin Finance - 31 x Tu-204SM-100

Tupolev Total – 31


Number by Type (Includes any LoI or MoU orders)

A320 – 132
A330 - 16
A350 - 98
A380 - 10
737 - 137
747 - 4
777 - 25
787 - 35
C-Series - 30
SuperJet 100 - 49
TU-204 - 31
E-190 - 22
Q400 - 4

Show Totals – 593

Farnborough 2008, Day 4 Order summary

Farnborough 2008

July 17th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

*Synergy Aerospace orders 10 A350 from Airbus
*Alis Aerolinee Italiane orders 5 A330F with 3 options from Airbus

Running Totals:

Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350* (Was announced at the Dubai Air Show but final contract signed at Farnborough)
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Synergy Aerospace – 10 x A350
Alis Aerolinee Italiane – 5 x A330F

Airbus Total – 256

Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737** (signed at Farnborough on 7/17/08)
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700

Boeing Total – 201

Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400

Bombardier Total – 34

Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190

Embrarer Total – 22

Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100

Sukhoi Total – 49

Tupolev:
Ilyushin Finance - 31 x Tu-204SM-100

Tupolev Total – 31

Show Totals – 593

FT: Airbus Hampered By Cultural Differences

The Financial Times put out an interesting and disturbing article on tensions at Airbus’ A380 final assembly line. Read it here.

While it has always been normal to have labor tensions at any global manufacturing firm, it is particularly disturbing to have strife amongst groups of workers who need to work together. Even if you have strife as it seems to be the case in Toulouse, the underlying tensions are nationalistic in nature bought on by the stress of the getting the A380 out the door quickly. In other words the disputes have become the French vs. the Germans.

Airbus was created with the hopes of pooling the aerospace talent across the European continent in order to be more competitive with the US manufacturers and they have succeeded in that. Times were good and the concept of the different European nationalities working together seemed to have been validated as workers of different nationalities got along . But that was when times were good but now with the pressures of delivering the A380s weighing on them as well as a host of other negative developments (A400M, the insider trading investigation, and Power8) Airbus workers have now set up each other and the battle lines have been drawn along nationalists lines.

While it’s certainly not going to bring down Airbus it can seriously hurt the A380 program at a critical point of the recovery plan and could lead to further delays.

Farnborough 2008, Day 3 Order summary

Farnborough 2008

July 16th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

*Malaysia Airlines orders 35 737-800 from Boeing (previously booked) along with 20 options
*Asiana order 30 A350s with 10 more options from Airbus
*An unidentified customer order 20 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
*AMA Asset Management orders 5 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
*Malev Orders 4 Q400 from Bombardier
*Aviation Capital Group ordered 15 737-700 from Boeing

Running Totals:

Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350*
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350

Airbus Total – 241

Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700

Boeing Total – 201

Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400

Bombardier Total – 34

Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190

Embrarer Total – 22

Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100

Sukhoi Total – 49

Show Totals – 547

Of note, Aviation Capital also expressed interest in buying 10 to 15 more 787s

Boeing considering a 2nd 787 assembly line?

I got an email this morning from a reliable source stating that the eventual plan for 787 production is to build on 10/month on two separate lines. The first line is obviously already up and running inside building 40-26. The second line would go in building 40-24 which is where the current 767 production line is.

767 production would move to a small bay on the north side of Boeing factory at Everett. There is as of now, no timetable for all this to happen but it does raise quite a few questions as well as possibilities.

Questions: What happens if Boeing wins the tanker re-bid with the 767? The answer is not clear but the tanker would account for one more 767/month. It is probably possible that the new 767 final assembly line location should be able to handle that.
Couldn't the existing 787 line handle the increase of output to 10/month? It probably can but they probably want to set up two lines for a couple reasons: 1) to increase production significantly and also to provide back up in case there are issues with the other production line.

Possibilities: Boeing can really up the production rates of the 787 in all it's variants which at one point will probably include the 787-10 and a 787F in addition to the 787-8, 787-9 and 787-3. Now with all that will be one huge questions: What can be the optimum supplier throughput to the final assembly line in Everett? And that's a question not only for the primary Boeing suppliers but the secondary and tertiary suppliers as well. Throughput, or the rate that the supplier can supply to the programs final assembly line, is going to be key in getting production going as well as catching up to the 12 to 30 month delays facing the 787 customers.

Lastly, Scott Hamilton and Leeham & Co. conducted a great interview with Pat Shanahan. You can read it here.

UPDATE

On the second final assembly line my source said that this action (moving the 767 line and replacing it with the 787 line) is more than likely to happen regardless of what happens to the KC-X re-bid decision. The 787 program needs the space. Already there has been some evidence of this as the fatigue test airframe was moved from 40-26 to 40-24 to finish up assembly prior to be taken out to the fatigue test site.

UPDATE 2

Check out the Flightblogger post.

Update 3

Qatar Airways CEO weighs in on Boeing opening a 2nd line for the 787. He basically says it's a no-brainer. Duh! Read the article here.

Farnborough 2008, Day 2 Order summary

July 15th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

*Qatar Airways orders 4 A321 from Airbus with 2 A321 options
*Tunis Air orders 10 A320, 3 A330, and 3 A350 from Airbus
*Arik Air orders 7 737-800 (previously booked) and an LoI for 4 747-8I
*Avialeasing order 24 Sukhoi SuperJet from Sukhoi with 16 options
*Aviation Capital Group orders 23 A320 from Airbus
*DAE orders 70 A320 and 30 A350 from Airbus* (
this is a firming of an order that was announced in Nov. 2007 at the Dubai Air Show)
*Aeroflot orders 5 A321 from Airbus
*Air China orders 15 777 and 30 737s from Boeing (both of these may have been previously booked)

Running Totals:

Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350*
Aeroflot – 5 x A321

Airbus Total – 211

Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737

Boeing Total – 151

Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110

Bombardier Total – 30

Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190

Embrarer Total – 22

Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet

Sukhoi Total – 24

Show Totals – 438

By the way...Look for Malyasia Air to finalize an order for 35 737-800s tomorrow along with 20 options.

Boeing 787 Update at Farnborough

Pat Shanahan gave a 787 update this morning in the UK though short on details (as opposed to the one in April) it still suggests that they are on track for first flight late this year. Power on was successfully completed with a few minor glitches that were quickly resolved. Boeing is finalizing the shipping date of the two remaining sections for LN 4 later this week. My guess is that they will be in Everett by the end of next week but we’ll see.

Boeing is planning to activate LN 1’s hydraulic system next week, otherwise known as “oil” on (as opposed to power on). This will allow Boeing to raise and lower the landing gear in the hanger before first flight (you don’t want to test something like that on first flight in case something goes wrong). It will also allow Boeing to test all the movable flight surfaces (flaps, slats, elevator, rudder and speed brakes). As reported on this web site earlier, Boeing was planning to move the fatigue air frame from 40-24 to the fatigue test area and move LN 1 from 40-26 to 40-24. The later move is probably in doubt due to hydraulic on next week and the need to test some of the mechanical systems. I think the move of LN 1 probably won’t occur until 1st to 2nd week of August

Regarding LN 4 – the damage to the main fuselage caused a disruption in the schedule and the certification process maybe impacted though Boeing says they do have some schedule margin to absorb the disruption in the schedule.

Speaking of margin, Shanahan said that small glitches in the production schedule is eating up some of the margin. I’m presuming that he’s talking about LN 4 and that may be a cause for concern further down with certification testing. Everett is now the bottleneck for continuing production. The suppliers are no longer the issue and they have greatly improved on reducing traveled work. Look for no traveled work starting with LN 8, by then Global Aeronautica should be shipping 100% complete sections, Spirit is already shipping 100% complete sections with LN 4 and Vought will ship 100% complete rear fuselage sections starting with LN 5.

One issue with regards to the road to first flight is the traceability of the brake control software to meeting certification requirement which is being characterized as a minor issue and that a fix is being implemented. Crane Co. is responsible for that part of the Dreamliner.

Right now Boeing is saying that APU and engine testing is due to start next month, followed by gauntlet testing (a series of tests that trick the airplane’s computer into thinking that it’s in flight and see how the systems react to normal flight procedures as well as in flight anomalies). This will be followed by taxi and brake tests and then first flight. Shanahan is saying first flight should take place around November but I personally think it’ll be October if there are no major issues.

So far Boeing has completed 98% of safety of hardware testing, 96% of hardware is qualified for first flight (will be 100% by 2nd week of August) and 95% of hardware is ready for first flight. Despite this progress there is still some part shortages with LN 1 though these are minor. There is still some work to do in the mid fuselage and the wing of LN 1 and they need some tubing to complete the fuel system on the airplane as well. Also they need to complete airplane 2 before airplane 1 can fly as airplane 2 will be used for ground verification tests. Finishing up work in the mid fuselage of LN 2 also has eaten into some of the margin.

In terms of future variants, Boeing is planning to finish trade studies for the 787-9 by the end of the year and have a firm configuration for the 787-9 by the 2nd quarter of 2009 and entry into service by early 2012. They also said that the 787-3 will benefit from the experience gained on the 787-8 and 787-9 thus indicating that they are still going to go ahead with that variant though the time table is still up in the air.

On the static test aircraft frame, testing is due to start soon with three main tests to be done soon: pressurization testing, leading/trailing edge testing, and vibration testing.

Until the next update…have fun and keep your head in the clouds!

Farnborough 2008, Day 1 Order summary

Farnborough 2008

July 14th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights

*Bombardier launches C Series of short/medium haul aircraft with an LoI for 30 aircraft from Lufthansa
*FlyDubai orders 50 737-800 aircraft (a new order) (with ability to change to 737-900ER), will take 4 737-800 on lease from Babcock
*Etihad order 35 787-9 (previously booked) along with 10 777-300ER (also previously booked). They have also taken the following options and rights: 25 options on 787 and 10 options on 777, 10 rights on the 787 and 5 on 777.
*Saudi Arabian Airlines order 8 A330-300 from Airbus
*Niki orders 5 E190s from Embrarer
*NASAIR orders 5 E190s from Embraer
*Aeromexico orders 12 E190s from Embrarer
*Etihad order 20 A320, 25 A350 and 10 A380 from Airbus. They have taken the following options and rights: 5 A320 options, 10 A350 options, 5 A380 options; 15 A320 rights, 15 A350 rights and 5 A380 rights.

Running Totals:

Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380

Airbus Total – 63

Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER

Boeing Total – 95

Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110

Bombardier Total – 30

Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190

Embrarer Total – 22

Show Totals - 210

Etihad Airways orders 35 787-9s and 10 777-300ER

Photo Courtesy of Boeing

Confirming market rumors, Etihad and Boeing confirmed that the carrier was behind the 35 strong 787-9 order booked in early March. Additionally, Etihad ordered 10 more 777-300ERs, they currently fly 5 of that type.

Etihad also ordered 25 787 options and 10 777 options as well as 10 787 purchase rights and 5 777 purchase rights. Deliveries of the 787 are to start in 2015.

If all the 787 options and rights are exercised that would give Etihad a fleet of 787 that is 70 strong.

777F starts taxi tests in advance of first flight

The first 777F began taxi tests today in advance of its anticipated first flight tomorrow at 10 AM Pacific Time. Matt Cawby got a couple of great pictures on the airplane of Runway 16R in Everett. See the here and here.

Farnbourough order rumor and other musings

On the eve of Farnborough I've been hearing rumblings of some 787 orders. These are unconfirmed rumors. Some are obvious but others are not. I heard that Ethiad, Asiana (amongst the obvious airlines), and Turkish Airlines (the unexpected order) maybe ordering the 787. While Boeing has over 60 unidentified orders including 2 large blocks of 23 and 35, it seems that a couple of these airlines may not be the ones who placed those orders. It seems for certain that the 787 will break 900 firm orders by the end of the show and I'm willing to say that a further order from ILFC, one of Boeing's most important and influential customers, will be given that honor. I will hope to confirm these potential orders soon.

While the 787 final assembly production has been stopped momentarily because of the issues with LN 4, the final assembly of the first three flight worthy aircraft continue. The engines for LN 1 will have been re-installed by the end of this weekend...a major step forward as Boeing was not expecting to re-install them until August....so they're several weeks ahead of that schedule. Jon Ostrower reported it here.

Look here at Matt Cawby's site for more pics. Here's a picture of the fatigue test frame in 40-24. This is another engine picture. And final picture also here. It is my understanding that LN 1 should be moving in about a week to 10 days from now but I'm not sure if this is on hold because of the issues with LN 4. Speaking of which we hope to have more clarity on that airplane by Tuesday.

Great videos on NASA's Constellation Program

Here's a switch from the usual 787 stuff.

NASA has embarked on returning Americn's to the moon by 2020. Here are a couple of great videos produced by NASA detailing what they're doing.

Video 1

Video 2

Flightglobal: Alenia to acquire 2nd autoclave for 787 production

In this article from Flightglobal, Alenia is planning to acquire a 2nd autoclave for 787 production. Alenia currently has one autoclave and the 2nd one would be used to ensure that there is no disruption in producing the 787 barrels that Alenia supplies. It'll be about two years before it is installed.

Now risk mitigation is very important but one has to wonder if this is also part of Boeing's plan to up 787 production rates to beyond 10/month. Boeing would need to see a healthy uptick in production to get delivery schedules back on track with some airlines warning of up to a 30 month delay in getting their first 787. It would also allow Boeing to meet increase in demand for the airplane which is at just under 900 firm orders. It is already known that some of the Japanese partners have talked about or are making plans to add additional manufacturing capacity to support a higher output.

The worry is also getting secondary and tertiary suppliers to up their production rates to meet the higher output if and when that is decided on, but for now it seems that people are starting to plan for it.

LCFs on the move, possible delivery flights

UPDATE:

The Dreamlifter, reg. number N780BA took off today for Wichita
but soon after takeoff developed a problem with its flap and had to dump fuel
and return to Paine Field. They landed safely.

The 747 Large Cargo Freighters, or LCFs have been on the move. Yesterday one left for a flight to Nagoya. It is unclear if it going to be bringing in any parts but if it is it will bring parts for delivery to Global Aeronautica as Everett is still waiting for parts for Dreamliner 4. It could be returning transportation fixtures back to Nagoya and then fly back with parts for other 787s to be assembled at Global Aeronautica.

Today though a flight plan was filed for an LCF to to fly from Everett to McConnell AFB in Wichita, KS. This is where Spirit Aerosystems manufactures the forward fuselage for the 787. It can be flying there ostensibly to pick up the nose section.

The 3rd LCF is already in Charleston, probably waiting for Boeing's ok to load and deliver the main fuselage for Dreamliner 4 which had been the source of the hold up.

Speaking of Global Aeronautica, they had a 24 hour standdown to review FOD prodcedures. The FAA found violations but did not order the standdown. That order came from management. Given the recent news, this is probably a good idea. See the article from the Seattle Times here.

Finally, Matt Cawby has pictures of the fatigue test site on his web site. This is where the 787 fatigue test airframe will go to start 3 years worth of fatigue testing. Simply put they will simulate a lifetimes worth of flights over the period of three years and see how the airframe responds. Check out his pictures here.

Dreamliner 4 main fuselage delayed by only a few days.

Ok just out on Bloomberg. Alenia said that a temporary worker put the wrong fasteners in 11 holes in the midbody fuselage which damaged a 30 cm area. The section was repaired with a carbon fiber patch which is the ususal procedure. The section's delivery will be delayed by only a few days as a consequence. The temporary worker was fired.

UPDATE

Jon Ostrower got a response from Alenia. Read it here.

Also Susanna Ray, a reporter for Bloomberg News has an excellent article detailing Boeing stock price moves over the last few days and the issue with Dreamliner 4. Read it here.

787 Horizontal Stabilizer Successfully Completes Destructive Testing

The word from Alenia. The horizontal stabilizer has passed destructive testing as part of the 787 certification. It'll now move on to fatigue testing of this part.

Here's Alenia's press release.

Farnborough '08

That time of year is coming up...July in the the UK...Wimbeldon and the Royal Henly Regatta (Go Columbia Lions!).

But for aviation industry execs and enthusiasts it also means the Farnborough International Airshow. As far as the commercial aviation sector is concerned the topics will revolve aroung one word: OIL.

Yep the price of black gold has airlines teetering on the edge of bankruptcy or in some cases total collapse. Two years ago no one was even talking about oil being near $150/bblbut going into this years airshow airline execs and the aerospace industry still have to find a way to survive in a world where oil can reach to $200 or even $250 per barrel.

As far as airline fleets are concerned, the industry has two ways of responding:

1. Permanently park fuel inefficient fleets and reduce capacity system wide


2. Replace older aircraft with newer fuel efficient aircraft

There is a fine edge between both options with many airlines retiring old airplanes but also deferring current orders and outright canceling them as evidenced by Air Deccan, Kingfisher, jetBlue and Skybus' fleet actions (well the later had to liquidate so it doesn't make sense to keep those A320 orders alive).

Some are moving forward with re-fleeting plans which includes buying up 787, 777, 747-8, A350, A330 and A380s as well as filling up on the narrowbodies.

American Airlines while now charging $15 for th first checked bag is also talking about accerating 737 deliveries in order to repalce the MD-80s that comprises the largest portion of its fleet. This is an example of what awaits aircraft manufacturers. The "healthy" airlines will move up purchases of new airplanes to get the older ones out of services while hte "sicker" airlines cannot simply afford to replace any airplanes and would rather cut services, capacity and routes while charging passengers higher fares and fees.

While cancellations and deferrals won't dominate the marketing efforts at Farnborough by Boeing and Airbus, they will undoubtedly will tout the new orders that will be announced there.

So who is in the market and who will order. Here's my prediction (or guesses):

ILFC - they've stated that they plan on ordering up to 150 airplanes from both manufacturers. I would see them buying up a lot of A320 especially in the light of several cancellations and deferrals for the type which has probably opened up early delivery slots. The 737 hasn't experienced a high cancellation rate yet...it may be a matter of time for that to happen. I also think that ILFC will be in big for more 787s and will try and take up more 777s

Ethiad - they're talking to both manufacterers for 50 - 100 airplens in both narrowbodies and widebodies. My predicition is that Airbus will take the narrowbody part of the order while Boeing will win the widebody with a mix of 787, 777 and 747-8I. There is an unidentified order for 35 787-9 and I think Ethiad might be the one who placed this order.

Emirates - these guys are posting profits and doesn't seem to be weighed down by the price of fuel. Must also help being funded by the rulers of Dubai who are just raking in the oil profits. I can see them buying more 777 and perhaps converting some of the 747-8F to 747-8Is.

British Air and QANTAS - rumors have been floating around that both British Airways and QANTAS will buy the 777-300ER to help solve a capacity shortfall due to the 787 delays. This maybe announced at Farnborough

Boeing may reveal the purchasers of several unidentifed orders including:

23 787-8 (probably Air Canada)

35 787-9s (Ethiad is my guess)

10 777-300ER (Emirates)

15 777-300ERs (not sure on this one)

737s....Boeing has a boat load of unidentified 737 buyers. Here is a list of them for 2007 and 2008:

Model Order Date Total
737-800 30-Mar-07 4
737-800 11-Apr-07 2
737-800 26-Apr-07 15
737-800 29-Aug-07 16
737-800 28-Sep-07 34
737-800 4-Oct-07 5
737-800 31-Oct-07 1
737-800 15-Nov-07 30
737-700 4-Dec-07 6
737-800 4-Dec-07 9
737-800 27-Dec-07 15
737-800 11-Feb-08 1
737-700 20-Feb-08 15
737-800 20-Feb-08 15
737-800 11-Mar-08 40
737-800 12-Mar-08 1
737-800 18-Mar-08 6
737-800 11-Apr-08 2
737-800 5-May-08 20
737-800 27-May-08 30
Various 737s June, 08 37

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I'll rcap the days action from Farnborough on this blog site.