UPDATE : Matt Cawby posted a couple of pics showing trucks delivering 787 parts outside building 40-26. He also stated that the inboard wing flaps should be installed very soon and that the thrust reversers are on. See his post here. Also I talked to a 787 machinist and he's and some others he knows plan on voting yes on the contract. He feels that this is the best contract that they can get and if it's rejected then they won't get as good a contract. He also said that some people were misunderstanding the verbiage of the contract which was leading to misunderstandings of what is being proposed to the workers. He said that he'll be very, very unhappy if it's rejected.
According to Saj Ahmad of Fleetbuzz Editorial.com in an editorial that you can read here the brake issue that had threaten the 787 first flight (before any strike related delays came into play) have been resolved. Crane Aerospace have resolved the brake software issues.
This should clear the way for first flight depending on what happens this weekend and Boeing's own assessment of the 787 program post strike.
In the same article, Saj also reports that the A350 program is having issues of its own. The design freeze milestone was supposed to be this month. This milestone freezes the external configuration of the aircraft and starts the process for the detail design work to proceed.
Apparently Airbus is able to only do a partial design freeze. Saj reports that the final design freeze can slip to the 2nd quarter 2009 and can have consequences for Airbus' planned service entry in 2013.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Where does Boeing go from here?
Ok now that there is a tentative deal with IAM 751 with Boeing let's take a look at what happens here on out. First the IAM membership has to ratify the contract that it's leadership has unanimously endorsed to it's members.
Look for ratification by the end of this weekend at the very latest and the return to production very soon after that. I would say that Everett and Renton would be back on line before election day. at the latest.
Next up...SPEEA and those contract negotiations. While it is hard to predict, I do think that since SPEEA and IAM were coordinating to a point there efforts against Boeing management that the contract that was negotiated with IAM will essentially be the same contract that is presented to SPEEA and will be likely accepted by SPEEA. With the financial markets and the global economy in a tailspin it will not be in SPEEA's interest to go out on strike especially when Boeing gave a very good contract to IAM. I think this contract was aimed at both SPEEA as well as IAM and it will probably be enough to avoid and engineers strike on December 1st.
Now looking ahead to the 787, it is a pretty much a no brainer that the 787 first flight will not take place before December 31st, 2008. There is still plenty of work to do but let's assume that the work stoppage is ultimately 60 days (2 months) and add in 10 days for unknown unknowns, then first flight can possibly take place 70 days after the machinists return to work. I'm assuming that they return around November 1st so it is possible for the 787 first flight to take place as early as January 10th, 2009. But this is all dependent on many factors:
1) Before the strike Boeing was looking at factory completion of LN 1 around early to mid November which is about a month off thus the first flight could take place as early as February
2) Despite the strike there was work being done on LN 1. There was the crossing of the lines by some machinists who came under severe financial stress though it's not known if any were 787 machinists
3) LN 2 needs to be completed and under go vibration testing prior to first flight of LN 2. I hear that power may not even be on in this aircraft yet though that is unconfirmed.
Boeing will probably give a new schedule and production assessment after the machinist return to work but I think that it would be reasonable to assume that first flight will not occur until January to February 2009.
Lastly one thing to think about. The labor actions of the last couple months and the continuing negotiations with SPEEA has probably left a sour taste in the mouths of all involved. I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing starts the process of moving out airliner production out of Washington State into area which is less union friendly like Texas, Arizona an the US Southeast.
I think it's a no brainer that commercial aircraft production is on its way out at Everett. It'll probably start with 787 production moving to San Antonio and then possibly followed by 777 and 737 moving to a state(s) where the unions are not highly regarded like Alabama or South Carolina. IAM has ultimately shot itself in the foot. Certainly the Yellowstone 3 (large widebody) and Yellowstone 1 (737 RS) will be built at another location.
Look for ratification by the end of this weekend at the very latest and the return to production very soon after that. I would say that Everett and Renton would be back on line before election day. at the latest.
Next up...SPEEA and those contract negotiations. While it is hard to predict, I do think that since SPEEA and IAM were coordinating to a point there efforts against Boeing management that the contract that was negotiated with IAM will essentially be the same contract that is presented to SPEEA and will be likely accepted by SPEEA. With the financial markets and the global economy in a tailspin it will not be in SPEEA's interest to go out on strike especially when Boeing gave a very good contract to IAM. I think this contract was aimed at both SPEEA as well as IAM and it will probably be enough to avoid and engineers strike on December 1st.
Now looking ahead to the 787, it is a pretty much a no brainer that the 787 first flight will not take place before December 31st, 2008. There is still plenty of work to do but let's assume that the work stoppage is ultimately 60 days (2 months) and add in 10 days for unknown unknowns, then first flight can possibly take place 70 days after the machinists return to work. I'm assuming that they return around November 1st so it is possible for the 787 first flight to take place as early as January 10th, 2009. But this is all dependent on many factors:
1) Before the strike Boeing was looking at factory completion of LN 1 around early to mid November which is about a month off thus the first flight could take place as early as February
2) Despite the strike there was work being done on LN 1. There was the crossing of the lines by some machinists who came under severe financial stress though it's not known if any were 787 machinists
3) LN 2 needs to be completed and under go vibration testing prior to first flight of LN 2. I hear that power may not even be on in this aircraft yet though that is unconfirmed.
Boeing will probably give a new schedule and production assessment after the machinist return to work but I think that it would be reasonable to assume that first flight will not occur until January to February 2009.
Lastly one thing to think about. The labor actions of the last couple months and the continuing negotiations with SPEEA has probably left a sour taste in the mouths of all involved. I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing starts the process of moving out airliner production out of Washington State into area which is less union friendly like Texas, Arizona an the US Southeast.
I think it's a no brainer that commercial aircraft production is on its way out at Everett. It'll probably start with 787 production moving to San Antonio and then possibly followed by 777 and 737 moving to a state(s) where the unions are not highly regarded like Alabama or South Carolina. IAM has ultimately shot itself in the foot. Certainly the Yellowstone 3 (large widebody) and Yellowstone 1 (737 RS) will be built at another location.
Monday, October 27, 2008
BREAKING: IAM and Boeing reach tentative deal
Just out on the wires:
"SEATTLE - A Machinists union spokesman has reported a tentative settlement to end a strike that has shut down Boeing Co.'s commercial airplane operations since Sept. 6.
Francis "Frank" Larkin, a spokesman for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in Washington, D.C., told The Associated Press the deal was reached Monday evening.
Boeing spokesman Tim Healy in Seattle says he's checking on the report. The apparent breakthrough came on the fifth day of talks at the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service in the nation's capital.
Full details were not immediately available, but according to the union's Web site, it's a four-year deal. A vote will take place in three-to-five days, once all members have had a chance to look it over.
IAM workers went on strike Sept. 6, three days after Boeing's last offer was rejected with an 87 percent strike vote. Two days of last-ditch talks to avoid a strike failed, and another round of negotiations this month collapsed in the second day.
The union represents about 25,000 workers in and around Seattle, 1,500 in Gresham, Ore., and 750 in Wichita, Kan. Key issues include job security, wages, retirement benefits and medical coverage.
But the Machinists union isn't the only one locking horns with the Boeing Company these days.
SPEEA, the union representing engineers and technical workers also has more than 20,000 members in Puget Sound. Contract talks will enter their final phase at a Seattle-area hotel Tuesday. SPEEA's two contracts, one covering professionals and the other hourly technical workers, expire Dec. 1
“If they present a last, best and final offer that doesn't reward these employees for the success they brought to the company, they may very well vote to strike,” said Ray Goforth, SPEEA Executive Director.Take the issue of outsourcing. It's not only a big issue for Machinists who want to keep outside contractors out of the plants, but also for engineers, only the issue is different.
For example, SPEEA says the company tried to outsource too much engineering work on the 787, not to mention most of the parts, leading to more than a year-and-a-half’s worth of delays. The engineers want a say in the next airplane.
“That the engineering and technical employees have a serious voice in how it's set up. There are components of these planes where it makes sense to outsource and some components where it doesn't make sense to outsource,” said Goforth.
SPEEA has only had one major strike -- 40 days in 2000. The company says it is optimistic a deal can be reached in the next few weeks and a strike averted.
“We feel we have a process that works. It's worked the past couple of contracts. In fact, the contracts Boeing's offered has been approved by 80 percent of the voters,” said Boeing spokeswoman Karen Fincutter. "
Also read IAM press release about the settlement here.
"SEATTLE - A Machinists union spokesman has reported a tentative settlement to end a strike that has shut down Boeing Co.'s commercial airplane operations since Sept. 6.
Francis "Frank" Larkin, a spokesman for the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in Washington, D.C., told The Associated Press the deal was reached Monday evening.
Boeing spokesman Tim Healy in Seattle says he's checking on the report. The apparent breakthrough came on the fifth day of talks at the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service in the nation's capital.
Full details were not immediately available, but according to the union's Web site, it's a four-year deal. A vote will take place in three-to-five days, once all members have had a chance to look it over.
IAM workers went on strike Sept. 6, three days after Boeing's last offer was rejected with an 87 percent strike vote. Two days of last-ditch talks to avoid a strike failed, and another round of negotiations this month collapsed in the second day.
The union represents about 25,000 workers in and around Seattle, 1,500 in Gresham, Ore., and 750 in Wichita, Kan. Key issues include job security, wages, retirement benefits and medical coverage.
But the Machinists union isn't the only one locking horns with the Boeing Company these days.
SPEEA, the union representing engineers and technical workers also has more than 20,000 members in Puget Sound. Contract talks will enter their final phase at a Seattle-area hotel Tuesday. SPEEA's two contracts, one covering professionals and the other hourly technical workers, expire Dec. 1
“If they present a last, best and final offer that doesn't reward these employees for the success they brought to the company, they may very well vote to strike,” said Ray Goforth, SPEEA Executive Director.Take the issue of outsourcing. It's not only a big issue for Machinists who want to keep outside contractors out of the plants, but also for engineers, only the issue is different.
For example, SPEEA says the company tried to outsource too much engineering work on the 787, not to mention most of the parts, leading to more than a year-and-a-half’s worth of delays. The engineers want a say in the next airplane.
“That the engineering and technical employees have a serious voice in how it's set up. There are components of these planes where it makes sense to outsource and some components where it doesn't make sense to outsource,” said Goforth.
SPEEA has only had one major strike -- 40 days in 2000. The company says it is optimistic a deal can be reached in the next few weeks and a strike averted.
“We feel we have a process that works. It's worked the past couple of contracts. In fact, the contracts Boeing's offered has been approved by 80 percent of the voters,” said Boeing spokeswoman Karen Fincutter. "
Also read IAM press release about the settlement here.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Vought may shut down North Charleston plant
In a press release, Vought is considering shutting down it's 787 operations in North Charleston. Currently, Vought has stopped production of the rear fuselage section (sections 47 and 48), reduced outside contractors, and redeployed most of the current workforce towards completing the existing sections (up to airplane 19).
Here is the relevant section of the press release pertaining to Vought's 787 production:
"787 Dreamliner Program A number of actions are being taken on the 787 program at Vought’s North Charleston facility because of the continuing Boeing IAM strike, coupled with the effects of previous 787 program schedule delays. Given that Vought has already fabricated enough barrels to support deliveries through airplane 19, the company must continue to slow its production rate and take the necessary actions across the program. Up until now, Vought has only released most of its outside assembly contractor workforce. Today, in addition to continuing this action, the company announced it is suspending its 787 composite bond fabrication operations, which will affect production and production support personnel. Assembly employees will also be redeployed to concentrate on existing fuselages closest to completion. Over the next 30 days, a variety of additional actions related to its 787 program activities are being considered, including the possible temporary shutdown of the entire plant. “This is a challenging time for all of us who support the Dreamliner program,“ said Joy Romero, vice president and general manager, 787 Program. “Since the beginning of the Boeing strike, we’ve been looking at ways to mitigate potential employee job loss in North Charleston, including the initial reduction of outside contract labor. We plan to work with our employees to identify temporary redeployment opportunities at other Vought locations, where possible. This activity will require everyone’s patience, focused attention, and best effort to ensure a smooth continuation of required work activities, while continuing to provide customer support.”
Here is the relevant section of the press release pertaining to Vought's 787 production:
"787 Dreamliner Program A number of actions are being taken on the 787 program at Vought’s North Charleston facility because of the continuing Boeing IAM strike, coupled with the effects of previous 787 program schedule delays. Given that Vought has already fabricated enough barrels to support deliveries through airplane 19, the company must continue to slow its production rate and take the necessary actions across the program. Up until now, Vought has only released most of its outside assembly contractor workforce. Today, in addition to continuing this action, the company announced it is suspending its 787 composite bond fabrication operations, which will affect production and production support personnel. Assembly employees will also be redeployed to concentrate on existing fuselages closest to completion. Over the next 30 days, a variety of additional actions related to its 787 program activities are being considered, including the possible temporary shutdown of the entire plant. “This is a challenging time for all of us who support the Dreamliner program,“ said Joy Romero, vice president and general manager, 787 Program. “Since the beginning of the Boeing strike, we’ve been looking at ways to mitigate potential employee job loss in North Charleston, including the initial reduction of outside contract labor. We plan to work with our employees to identify temporary redeployment opportunities at other Vought locations, where possible. This activity will require everyone’s patience, focused attention, and best effort to ensure a smooth continuation of required work activities, while continuing to provide customer support.”
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
AMR to buy the 787
(Image Courtesy of American Airlines)Well after years of waiting AMR, the parent of American Airlines is finally buying the 787. The surprise is that they are buying 42 of the larger 787-9s and not the 787-8. It was widely assumed that when AA pulled the trigger on the 787 order it would be for the -8 version. AMR also has options on 58 more 787s for delivery between 2015 and 2020.
Now this is not a finalized order, it's only a purchase agreement. First delivery is for September 2012 but AA must give Boeing notice of its intent to pay for and take delivery of each 787 18 months prior to delivery. AMR said in its press release that it must conclude a new contract with its pilots union prior to going forward. This means that AMR must conclude an agreement by March 2011 in order for this purchase agreement to be finalized with Boeing.
This part reminds all of us of the issue that Air Canada had when it pursued it's widebody fleet renewal with Boeing. AC had to also finalize a contract with its own pilots union before the purchase agreement could be finalized. When the pilots union rejected managements contract (due to infighting within the union) the contract was scuttled only to be resurrected some months later after the union issues were resolved.
Boeing is still dealing with its own union issues and there is no end in sight unfortunately. 787 #1 is almost all ready and was probably about a month from being shop complete when the strike hit. The engines are on and the static test airframe passed the critical high blow tests in late September with two more critical tests that need to be completed before first flight (those should be close to being completed by the end of the month). However, Dreamliner 2 must also be completed prior to first flight in order to undertake vibrations tests before first flight. Al in all it looks like first flight will be pushed to January - February of 2009 at the earliest.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Effects of the strike on the 787
About a week and a half ago a Boeing 747 LCF made a routine delivery flight from Nagoya, Japan to Charleston, SC stopping in Anchorage, Alaska to refuel. Now typically these delivery flight are routine and usually not the subject of a blog entry but with the IAM strike going on at Boeing, it does underscore a couple of things about the what is happening with Boeing’s production model and it’s relationship with outside contractors and its labor unions.
First let’s look at the 787 as of late last week. Jon Ostrower, reported in his blog that ZA001 had its nose cone attached and that the airplane is sitting on its wheels which means that the landing gear swing tests seem to have been completed. Jon also says that he saw flight test equipment on the airplane. Right now the impediment to Boeing getting the plane out the door (other than the strike) is getting the remaining flight test and cabin equipment installed on board as well as knock on effects from some small systems integration issues. Schedule margin is tight without the strike as it is and Jon and Scott Hamilton reported that first flight would be delayed as much as 5 weeks (into mid December at the latest) before any strike effects.
Adding to the pressure of the 787 program is a report by Geoffrey Thomas saying that the production problems on the 787 are hurting new sales of the airplane. Apparently, delivery slots are not available until 2020 which means that the impact of the production problems have effectively pushed out the earliest delivery slots by about 2 to 3 years unless Boeing can manage an orderly increase of 787 output to about 14/month.
Now because there is strike on doesn’t mean that work on the 787 has come to a grinding halt as evidenced by the LCF flights this week. The tier 1 contractors like Global Aeronautica, Vought and Mitsubishi will continue to produce their respective work packages for as long as they possibly can (without shipping further sections and wings to Everett). Depending on when the strike ends, this work during the strike period will eliminate traveled work going to Everett. Boeing can restart production on LN 5 when those parts arrive with no traveled work to be done thus utilizing the 787 production line in a manner it was intended. This can only help in increasing the production rate of the 787 in the near term. So while the strike is on going at Boeing that hasn’t completely bought the 787 production to a grinding halt and may in fact help the production system recover fully by the time the strike ends. One note to all this is that some Boeing’s 787 suppliers are starting to cut back on production, namely Spirit has said they are cutting back on production on some of the products they supply to Boeing without citing any specific Boeing programs. At the end of the day there will be progress in the suppliers’ efforts to clean up the production mess and get their end of the business back on track because of the strike. If Boeing can get its end in order then the production model for the 787 can be a big success.
Read an AP report here.
That all said the question that should be asked (and so far has not) is the IAM being very short sighted in its on the issue of outsourcing. James Bell Boeing’s CFO said at a conference yesterday:
The union, he said, "would like all of the work to be done in the Puget Sound area and that's not realistic." Boeing, he explained, would like "complete flexibility" to outsource work to suppliers; "We have to figure out what's the right balance."
There is nothing that could stop Boeing from selling its Renton and Everett plants to an investor thus turning Boeing into a pure systems integrator and having Renton and Everett bid on work packages much like other firms did when they went shopping for suppliers for the 787. We’ve already seen that happen with Boeing Wichita when those operations were sold to Onex Corp. and was renamed Spirit Aerosystems. Is something like that going to happen, probably no but it is plausible. It is one thing for the IAM to fight for better wages and health care benefits for their membership and their retirees but it is another thing to try and dictate to Boeing management what can be built where in a world of tight margins and intense price competition from Airbus. To see how much things have changed Spirit is going to be building fuselage panels for the A350 for Airbus. Clearly outsourcing is not just an American phenomenon but a global one and Boeing competes on a global stage.
First let’s look at the 787 as of late last week. Jon Ostrower, reported in his blog that ZA001 had its nose cone attached and that the airplane is sitting on its wheels which means that the landing gear swing tests seem to have been completed. Jon also says that he saw flight test equipment on the airplane. Right now the impediment to Boeing getting the plane out the door (other than the strike) is getting the remaining flight test and cabin equipment installed on board as well as knock on effects from some small systems integration issues. Schedule margin is tight without the strike as it is and Jon and Scott Hamilton reported that first flight would be delayed as much as 5 weeks (into mid December at the latest) before any strike effects.
Adding to the pressure of the 787 program is a report by Geoffrey Thomas saying that the production problems on the 787 are hurting new sales of the airplane. Apparently, delivery slots are not available until 2020 which means that the impact of the production problems have effectively pushed out the earliest delivery slots by about 2 to 3 years unless Boeing can manage an orderly increase of 787 output to about 14/month.
Now because there is strike on doesn’t mean that work on the 787 has come to a grinding halt as evidenced by the LCF flights this week. The tier 1 contractors like Global Aeronautica, Vought and Mitsubishi will continue to produce their respective work packages for as long as they possibly can (without shipping further sections and wings to Everett). Depending on when the strike ends, this work during the strike period will eliminate traveled work going to Everett. Boeing can restart production on LN 5 when those parts arrive with no traveled work to be done thus utilizing the 787 production line in a manner it was intended. This can only help in increasing the production rate of the 787 in the near term. So while the strike is on going at Boeing that hasn’t completely bought the 787 production to a grinding halt and may in fact help the production system recover fully by the time the strike ends. One note to all this is that some Boeing’s 787 suppliers are starting to cut back on production, namely Spirit has said they are cutting back on production on some of the products they supply to Boeing without citing any specific Boeing programs. At the end of the day there will be progress in the suppliers’ efforts to clean up the production mess and get their end of the business back on track because of the strike. If Boeing can get its end in order then the production model for the 787 can be a big success.
Read an AP report here.
That all said the question that should be asked (and so far has not) is the IAM being very short sighted in its on the issue of outsourcing. James Bell Boeing’s CFO said at a conference yesterday:
The union, he said, "would like all of the work to be done in the Puget Sound area and that's not realistic." Boeing, he explained, would like "complete flexibility" to outsource work to suppliers; "We have to figure out what's the right balance."
There is nothing that could stop Boeing from selling its Renton and Everett plants to an investor thus turning Boeing into a pure systems integrator and having Renton and Everett bid on work packages much like other firms did when they went shopping for suppliers for the 787. We’ve already seen that happen with Boeing Wichita when those operations were sold to Onex Corp. and was renamed Spirit Aerosystems. Is something like that going to happen, probably no but it is plausible. It is one thing for the IAM to fight for better wages and health care benefits for their membership and their retirees but it is another thing to try and dictate to Boeing management what can be built where in a world of tight margins and intense price competition from Airbus. To see how much things have changed Spirit is going to be building fuselage panels for the A350 for Airbus. Clearly outsourcing is not just an American phenomenon but a global one and Boeing competes on a global stage.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Gulf Air increases 787 order
With the strike looming over Boeing's head like the Sword of Damocles, the builder of the 787 received some good news when Gulf Air exercised 8 787 options. If this is firm order that is booked tomorrow in Boeing's weekly order update then the exercise of this options would take Boeing to over 900 787 on firm order. Gulf Air currently has 16 787-8 on order with the 8 options.
You can read the article from Gulf Daily New here.
You can read the article from Gulf Daily New here.
LCFs evacuate Charleston
Two of Boeing LCFs left Charleston, SC this morning. The two flight plans filed showed one aircraft heading to Pinal Airpark in Arizona and another heading for Anchorage, Alaska. Here are the flightaware flight plans here and here.
Hurricane Hannah is over Bermuda and the current projected track shows it heading to the Charleston, SC area by Saturday morning. I'm not sure what other preparations Vought, Boeing and Alenia are making for the 787 plant in Charleston.
Hurricane Hannah is over Bermuda and the current projected track shows it heading to the Charleston, SC area by Saturday morning. I'm not sure what other preparations Vought, Boeing and Alenia are making for the 787 plant in Charleston.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Flightblogger reports possible 787 schedule slip
Jon Ostrower is reporting that there may be a schedule slip to the 1st flight of the 787 from mid December to possibly into early January, 2009. The reason behind the potential delay is not related to the potential strike by the IAM but rather to outfitting ZA001 with flight test and other cabin equipment. Also there was some time consuming trouble shooting related to some small systems integration issues but the net result of all this is eating up mostif not all the margin that program managers had left for themselves.
Read Jon's story here.
Read Jon's story here.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Countdown to a strike?
With Boeing's best and final offer out for the IAM and it's membership to study, a countdown has started towards midnight, September 4th. Boeing's offer called for a 11% increase in wages over three years. IAM was looking for 9 to 13% over the same period but was targeting the upper range of that number. An interesting offer was giving each worker $2,500 if they approve the new contract by September 3rd. Clearly, they're trying to talk directly to the machinists. There was also substantial improvements in benefits and Boeing has taken many issues off the table that IAM had objected to including moving to a 401(k) style retirement plan. One thing that Boeing is holding a line on is outsourcing which has formed the backbone of the 787 manufacturing process.
One experienced Everett employee that I talked to termed the final offer as "complete BS" as he'll receive only a pay increase of amounting to only $.25/hour and that new hires behind would essentially be making the same as him. He feels that he's not being paid for the time that he's put in.
Clearly there is dissatisfaction in the IAM ranks over this contract. However, there will be quite a few who will support it. I think particularly the older machinists will be more inclined to support this proposal because of the improvements in the wage and health care options. Boeing's strategy is to repeat what happened in 2002. In that negotiation 62% of the machinists voted against Boeing's proposal. But since they needed a 67% vote majority to go out on strike the proposal was automatically triggered and was forced upon the union membership. Clearly Boeing is hoping that this will be the case this time around.
This could have consequences 3 years from now if this happens as it could lead to a lot of bitterness within the membership that can result in a strike in 2011. We'll know in a few hours what the union leadership will recommend to it's membership.
One experienced Everett employee that I talked to termed the final offer as "complete BS" as he'll receive only a pay increase of amounting to only $.25/hour and that new hires behind would essentially be making the same as him. He feels that he's not being paid for the time that he's put in.
Clearly there is dissatisfaction in the IAM ranks over this contract. However, there will be quite a few who will support it. I think particularly the older machinists will be more inclined to support this proposal because of the improvements in the wage and health care options. Boeing's strategy is to repeat what happened in 2002. In that negotiation 62% of the machinists voted against Boeing's proposal. But since they needed a 67% vote majority to go out on strike the proposal was automatically triggered and was forced upon the union membership. Clearly Boeing is hoping that this will be the case this time around.
This could have consequences 3 years from now if this happens as it could lead to a lot of bitterness within the membership that can result in a strike in 2011. We'll know in a few hours what the union leadership will recommend to it's membership.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Update on large 787 order to be announced
Earlier this week I got information that there will be an announcement of a new 787 operator by around mid-September. Well I've been digging and digging and so far I'm half way to China!
While I've been unable to find out who the new purchaser is I can reveal that the customer who ordered the 23 787 that Boeing booked in January 2008 had ordered two 787 earlier and that those two 787 are for the same unidentified customer. So in a way the customer is not a new customer because they had placed an earlier order for two frames but they are a new operator that has yet to be revealed. So this unknown new operator does have 25 787s on order.
While I've been unable to find out who the new purchaser is I can reveal that the customer who ordered the 23 787 that Boeing booked in January 2008 had ordered two 787 earlier and that those two 787 are for the same unidentified customer. So in a way the customer is not a new customer because they had placed an earlier order for two frames but they are a new operator that has yet to be revealed. So this unknown new operator does have 25 787s on order.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
787 production slow down
News out of Charleston, SC that Vought will temporarily stop producing the rear fuselage barrels for the 787 is the first indication that the bottleneck at Everett may not improve for a few months. An article in Charleston's Post and Courier News quotes Elmer Doty as saying that they do plan on resuming production of the rear fuselages later this year. It looks like Vought's line is as full as it can be especially since they're shipping only one complete rear fuselage section each month. Additionally, Spirit is also slowing its production of 787 forward fuselages.
The production issues and the travelled work all contributed to a bottleneck at Boeing's Everett's plant where scaffolding has to be put up around the air frames that have delivered thus far in order to finish all the travelled work. That as well as other issues has hindered Boeing from pulling out even one shop complete 787.
While the rest of the supply chain seems to be recovering, Boeing is still dealing with the issues left behind from the earlier issues thus the suppliers will have to slow down their production though it does seem that Global Aeronautica does have room and doesn't need to slow down their production of main fuselages.
This production slow down will allow Boeing to catch up with the rest of the supply chain as well as allow the tier one suppliers to ensure that all their respective work packages are appropraitely stuffed when shipped to Everett. However it will probably allow them to deliver only the 25 787 as they've indicated unless there is a significant improvement in the production rate (which would be necessitated by a steep learning curve on the 787 line). Once Boeing's 787 manufacturing technicians are fully up to speed on working on the 787 final assembly line as Boeing has intended (without any travelled work or any other engineering issues) then production can be ramped up to the 10/month or more.
The production issues and the travelled work all contributed to a bottleneck at Boeing's Everett's plant where scaffolding has to be put up around the air frames that have delivered thus far in order to finish all the travelled work. That as well as other issues has hindered Boeing from pulling out even one shop complete 787.
While the rest of the supply chain seems to be recovering, Boeing is still dealing with the issues left behind from the earlier issues thus the suppliers will have to slow down their production though it does seem that Global Aeronautica does have room and doesn't need to slow down their production of main fuselages.
This production slow down will allow Boeing to catch up with the rest of the supply chain as well as allow the tier one suppliers to ensure that all their respective work packages are appropraitely stuffed when shipped to Everett. However it will probably allow them to deliver only the 25 787 as they've indicated unless there is a significant improvement in the production rate (which would be necessitated by a steep learning curve on the 787 line). Once Boeing's 787 manufacturing technicians are fully up to speed on working on the 787 final assembly line as Boeing has intended (without any travelled work or any other engineering issues) then production can be ramped up to the 10/month or more.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
787 Landing Gear Test and new 787 order coming soon?
Image Courtesy of BoeingDreamliner 1 started landing gear tests 3 days ago (August 9th). This is a major milestone confirming that the electrical, hydraulics and avionics systems are working together. Initially each gear (left main, right main and nose) were tested individually and then all were tested together. The gear swing tests is top replicate how the landing gear would work as if in actual flight. In order to do this, Boeing jacked the airplane off its landing gear. These tests will continue for the next few days presumably also testing the opening and closing of the landing gear doors as well.
Jon Ostrower is also reporting that Boeing will have a video available of the gear tests available soon. I'll try to post it here (once I've figured out how to do that)!
UPDATE: The video and more pics of the gear swing is here. Boeing even got some amazing footage inside the wheel well as the gear is retracted into it.
New 787 Customer?
In other 787 news, I learned from multiple sources that Boeing will reveal a buyer of 23 787-8s as early as next month. Boeing booked a 23 order from an unidentified customer back in January of this year. Since this order was booked, speculation has been rampant on the web that it must be a current customer who has already purchased the 787 and has a large number of options that they can exercised. Air Canada (who has 23 unexercised 787 options) became the prime suspect. The buyer was not revealed at Farnborough (I guess they didn't want to compete with all the other news coming out of the air show) but I have since learned that this order may be for a new 787 operator. I've also learned from sources that the customer is NOT a North American or European customer. One source told me that it probably is a company that is not subject to regulatory fillings where large material purchases such as 23 787 would have to be disclosed.
So who can it be? Well it can be an Asian, Middle Eastern or South American customer in my opinion. Those are the only regions of the world that have airlines that don't have to reveal this purchase in regulatory filings in addition to being able to afford to buy a large number of widebody aircraft and who has not previously purchased the 787. From these regions we could probably look at airlines like Thai, TAM, Emirates, Garuda Indonesia, Malaysian or even Iraq Airways (with the help of US govt. loans or the $49 bn surplus the Iraqi govt. has). One source speculated to me that TAM is going to take delivery of 4 777-300ERs in September and wouldn't the delivery ceremony make a great opportunity to announce a TAM order for the 787. This is a company that has already bought 12 A350-800, 10 A350-900 and 15 A330-200. The 787-8 would be a great size for TAM for which Airbus' only competitor in the 787-8 size category is the A330-200 (the A350-800 competes with the 787-9 and the A350-900 would compete with the 777-200ER and the proposed 787-10) and the 767-300ERs that TAM recently leased out.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, Part 3
Jon's final part reviews the progress on the 5 remaining 787 to be used in the flight test and certification program. Dreamliner 2, it seems, is going to really feel the effects of the travelled work because a lot of attention has been focused on getting Dreamliner 1 prepared.
Read Jon's report here.
Read Jon's report here.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, part 2
Jon Ostrower continues his three part series this time updating us on the supply chain with particular emphasis on Global Aeronautica. GA seems to be the slowest cog in the wheel and it remains to be seen if they can sufficiently up the rates. It took them 11 months to send ouver the center section for Dreamliner 4 and it wasn't 100% complete but close.
They need to get up the learning curve and do it fast.
Read Jon's report here.
They need to get up the learning curve and do it fast.
Read Jon's report here.
787 Brakes
Currently the only issue that stands between the 787 and it flying is the brake monitoring software (the labor issues notwithstanding).
Crane Co, GE, Smith and Boeing haven't really given a status update on this issue as of yet but it certainly doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or not. Pat Shanahan has said that this issue is helping to eat up some of the schedule margin that the program has which cannot be a good thing. How much margin is left is unclear but in Jon Ostrower's blog, Boeing plans to have all hardware certified for safety of flight and ready to go for first flight by the end of the third week of August at the latest.
Now with the brake monitoring system.
The hardware is fine and the software has been written. Crane has to verify the software works and along with that Crane also has to collect all the documentation (and perhaps even prepare documentation) related to the brake monitoring software for Safety of Flight certification, in other words the system can't be used until the FAA know that it's safe even for flight testing.
According to Pat Shanahan (quoted in Jon's blog), everything except for the brakes will safety of flight certified by the end of the third week of August at the latest. When that will take place is a matter of speculation but my guess is around late August to mid September. It will probably go inside the 767 hanger for some final assembly activities and perhaps installation of some flight test equipment and then outside for ground testing.
Crane Co, GE, Smith and Boeing haven't really given a status update on this issue as of yet but it certainly doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or not. Pat Shanahan has said that this issue is helping to eat up some of the schedule margin that the program has which cannot be a good thing. How much margin is left is unclear but in Jon Ostrower's blog, Boeing plans to have all hardware certified for safety of flight and ready to go for first flight by the end of the third week of August at the latest.
Now with the brake monitoring system.
The hardware is fine and the software has been written. Crane has to verify the software works and along with that Crane also has to collect all the documentation (and perhaps even prepare documentation) related to the brake monitoring software for Safety of Flight certification, in other words the system can't be used until the FAA know that it's safe even for flight testing.
According to Pat Shanahan (quoted in Jon's blog), everything except for the brakes will safety of flight certified by the end of the third week of August at the latest. When that will take place is a matter of speculation but my guess is around late August to mid September. It will probably go inside the 767 hanger for some final assembly activities and perhaps installation of some flight test equipment and then outside for ground testing.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, Part 1
Jon Ostrower just posted a detailed update on the 787. It'll be in three parts with the first part here. The second part will deal with the supply chain and the last part will deal with Dreamliners 2 through 6.
There are two big issues between now and first flight: the brake monitoring issue and the labor contract negotiations with IAM. The later, in my opinion, represents the greatest risk to the 787 schedule. If there is a long strike then production could be significantly set back that delivering even 25 787s in 2009 will be very difficult. Boeing knows this and IAM leadership knows this and will be dealing from a position of strength. It'll be in Boeing's best interest to settle with IAM before Sept. 1st to ensure the 787 program continues uninterrupted.
There are two big issues between now and first flight: the brake monitoring issue and the labor contract negotiations with IAM. The later, in my opinion, represents the greatest risk to the 787 schedule. If there is a long strike then production could be significantly set back that delivering even 25 787s in 2009 will be very difficult. Boeing knows this and IAM leadership knows this and will be dealing from a position of strength. It'll be in Boeing's best interest to settle with IAM before Sept. 1st to ensure the 787 program continues uninterrupted.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Dreamliner 4 to start assembly soon
UPDATE: Another LCF just left Charleston with the main fuselage for Dreamliner 4. See it here.
The nose section for Dreamliner 4 should be in Everett later today thus setting the stage for the start of final assembly. The Dreamlifter is already in Wichita and has filed a flight plan to go on to Everett. No word yet on when the repaired main fusealge section is due in Everett but my guess is by tomorrow.
The nose section for Dreamliner 4 should be in Everett later today thus setting the stage for the start of final assembly. The Dreamlifter is already in Wichita and has filed a flight plan to go on to Everett. No word yet on when the repaired main fusealge section is due in Everett but my guess is by tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Dreamliner 1 Update
My source has told me that Dreamliner 1 is close to start landing gear test inside the final assembly plant in Everett. While the airplane is still on its gear, it looks like Boeing is prepping to jack the airplane off its landing gear soon and that would mean that the gear swing tests should start shortly. There are jacks that are positioned under the wings and much of the scaffolding that surrounded the airplane, particularly around the wings is now gone. The aircraft is still not 100% finished. The engine cowl is only on the left engine and there are still a bunch of access panels that need to be reinstalled.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
787 Production Update
UPDATE II (7/30/2008): The start of final assembly of LN 4 has been pushed back to August 4, 2008. The Dreamlifter did not deliver any fusealge section from Wichita. It had a fuselage transport fixture that was returned to Japan yesterday when it flew from Charleston to Wichita then to Everett and then on to Nagoya.
UPDATE (7/28/2008): I just got word that LN 1 should be pulled out of the final assembly building just prior to the start of final assembly of LN 5 (projected to be around end of August). It'll go to building 40-24 (the 767 line) and then around September to the paint hanger to re-paint some of the sections (with all the work in the past year, some of the original paint was sure to have come off with all the assembly activities).
Lastly, one of the Dreamlifters might delivering the forward fuselage for LN 4 to Everett today as it filed a flight plan.
I just got word that the fourth flying 787 (LN 4) will enter final assembly on July 29th; one month later than expected due to the repair to the damage on the main fuselage. This ties closely to what I reported earlier that the two remaining sections (the forward fuselage and main fuselage) should be delivered around this weekend or early next week.
UPDATE (7/28/2008): I just got word that LN 1 should be pulled out of the final assembly building just prior to the start of final assembly of LN 5 (projected to be around end of August). It'll go to building 40-24 (the 767 line) and then around September to the paint hanger to re-paint some of the sections (with all the work in the past year, some of the original paint was sure to have come off with all the assembly activities).
Lastly, one of the Dreamlifters might delivering the forward fuselage for LN 4 to Everett today as it filed a flight plan.
I just got word that the fourth flying 787 (LN 4) will enter final assembly on July 29th; one month later than expected due to the repair to the damage on the main fuselage. This ties closely to what I reported earlier that the two remaining sections (the forward fuselage and main fuselage) should be delivered around this weekend or early next week.
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