With Boeing's best and final offer out for the IAM and it's membership to study, a countdown has started towards midnight, September 4th. Boeing's offer called for a 11% increase in wages over three years. IAM was looking for 9 to 13% over the same period but was targeting the upper range of that number. An interesting offer was giving each worker $2,500 if they approve the new contract by September 3rd. Clearly, they're trying to talk directly to the machinists. There was also substantial improvements in benefits and Boeing has taken many issues off the table that IAM had objected to including moving to a 401(k) style retirement plan. One thing that Boeing is holding a line on is outsourcing which has formed the backbone of the 787 manufacturing process.
One experienced Everett employee that I talked to termed the final offer as "complete BS" as he'll receive only a pay increase of amounting to only $.25/hour and that new hires behind would essentially be making the same as him. He feels that he's not being paid for the time that he's put in.
Clearly there is dissatisfaction in the IAM ranks over this contract. However, there will be quite a few who will support it. I think particularly the older machinists will be more inclined to support this proposal because of the improvements in the wage and health care options. Boeing's strategy is to repeat what happened in 2002. In that negotiation 62% of the machinists voted against Boeing's proposal. But since they needed a 67% vote majority to go out on strike the proposal was automatically triggered and was forced upon the union membership. Clearly Boeing is hoping that this will be the case this time around.
This could have consequences 3 years from now if this happens as it could lead to a lot of bitterness within the membership that can result in a strike in 2011. We'll know in a few hours what the union leadership will recommend to it's membership.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Update on large 787 order to be announced
Earlier this week I got information that there will be an announcement of a new 787 operator by around mid-September. Well I've been digging and digging and so far I'm half way to China!
While I've been unable to find out who the new purchaser is I can reveal that the customer who ordered the 23 787 that Boeing booked in January 2008 had ordered two 787 earlier and that those two 787 are for the same unidentified customer. So in a way the customer is not a new customer because they had placed an earlier order for two frames but they are a new operator that has yet to be revealed. So this unknown new operator does have 25 787s on order.
While I've been unable to find out who the new purchaser is I can reveal that the customer who ordered the 23 787 that Boeing booked in January 2008 had ordered two 787 earlier and that those two 787 are for the same unidentified customer. So in a way the customer is not a new customer because they had placed an earlier order for two frames but they are a new operator that has yet to be revealed. So this unknown new operator does have 25 787s on order.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
787 production slow down
News out of Charleston, SC that Vought will temporarily stop producing the rear fuselage barrels for the 787 is the first indication that the bottleneck at Everett may not improve for a few months. An article in Charleston's Post and Courier News quotes Elmer Doty as saying that they do plan on resuming production of the rear fuselages later this year. It looks like Vought's line is as full as it can be especially since they're shipping only one complete rear fuselage section each month. Additionally, Spirit is also slowing its production of 787 forward fuselages.
The production issues and the travelled work all contributed to a bottleneck at Boeing's Everett's plant where scaffolding has to be put up around the air frames that have delivered thus far in order to finish all the travelled work. That as well as other issues has hindered Boeing from pulling out even one shop complete 787.
While the rest of the supply chain seems to be recovering, Boeing is still dealing with the issues left behind from the earlier issues thus the suppliers will have to slow down their production though it does seem that Global Aeronautica does have room and doesn't need to slow down their production of main fuselages.
This production slow down will allow Boeing to catch up with the rest of the supply chain as well as allow the tier one suppliers to ensure that all their respective work packages are appropraitely stuffed when shipped to Everett. However it will probably allow them to deliver only the 25 787 as they've indicated unless there is a significant improvement in the production rate (which would be necessitated by a steep learning curve on the 787 line). Once Boeing's 787 manufacturing technicians are fully up to speed on working on the 787 final assembly line as Boeing has intended (without any travelled work or any other engineering issues) then production can be ramped up to the 10/month or more.
The production issues and the travelled work all contributed to a bottleneck at Boeing's Everett's plant where scaffolding has to be put up around the air frames that have delivered thus far in order to finish all the travelled work. That as well as other issues has hindered Boeing from pulling out even one shop complete 787.
While the rest of the supply chain seems to be recovering, Boeing is still dealing with the issues left behind from the earlier issues thus the suppliers will have to slow down their production though it does seem that Global Aeronautica does have room and doesn't need to slow down their production of main fuselages.
This production slow down will allow Boeing to catch up with the rest of the supply chain as well as allow the tier one suppliers to ensure that all their respective work packages are appropraitely stuffed when shipped to Everett. However it will probably allow them to deliver only the 25 787 as they've indicated unless there is a significant improvement in the production rate (which would be necessitated by a steep learning curve on the 787 line). Once Boeing's 787 manufacturing technicians are fully up to speed on working on the 787 final assembly line as Boeing has intended (without any travelled work or any other engineering issues) then production can be ramped up to the 10/month or more.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
787 Landing Gear Test and new 787 order coming soon?
Image Courtesy of BoeingDreamliner 1 started landing gear tests 3 days ago (August 9th). This is a major milestone confirming that the electrical, hydraulics and avionics systems are working together. Initially each gear (left main, right main and nose) were tested individually and then all were tested together. The gear swing tests is top replicate how the landing gear would work as if in actual flight. In order to do this, Boeing jacked the airplane off its landing gear. These tests will continue for the next few days presumably also testing the opening and closing of the landing gear doors as well.
Jon Ostrower is also reporting that Boeing will have a video available of the gear tests available soon. I'll try to post it here (once I've figured out how to do that)!
UPDATE: The video and more pics of the gear swing is here. Boeing even got some amazing footage inside the wheel well as the gear is retracted into it.
New 787 Customer?
In other 787 news, I learned from multiple sources that Boeing will reveal a buyer of 23 787-8s as early as next month. Boeing booked a 23 order from an unidentified customer back in January of this year. Since this order was booked, speculation has been rampant on the web that it must be a current customer who has already purchased the 787 and has a large number of options that they can exercised. Air Canada (who has 23 unexercised 787 options) became the prime suspect. The buyer was not revealed at Farnborough (I guess they didn't want to compete with all the other news coming out of the air show) but I have since learned that this order may be for a new 787 operator. I've also learned from sources that the customer is NOT a North American or European customer. One source told me that it probably is a company that is not subject to regulatory fillings where large material purchases such as 23 787 would have to be disclosed.
So who can it be? Well it can be an Asian, Middle Eastern or South American customer in my opinion. Those are the only regions of the world that have airlines that don't have to reveal this purchase in regulatory filings in addition to being able to afford to buy a large number of widebody aircraft and who has not previously purchased the 787. From these regions we could probably look at airlines like Thai, TAM, Emirates, Garuda Indonesia, Malaysian or even Iraq Airways (with the help of US govt. loans or the $49 bn surplus the Iraqi govt. has). One source speculated to me that TAM is going to take delivery of 4 777-300ERs in September and wouldn't the delivery ceremony make a great opportunity to announce a TAM order for the 787. This is a company that has already bought 12 A350-800, 10 A350-900 and 15 A330-200. The 787-8 would be a great size for TAM for which Airbus' only competitor in the 787-8 size category is the A330-200 (the A350-800 competes with the 787-9 and the A350-900 would compete with the 777-200ER and the proposed 787-10) and the 767-300ERs that TAM recently leased out.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, Part 3
Jon's final part reviews the progress on the 5 remaining 787 to be used in the flight test and certification program. Dreamliner 2, it seems, is going to really feel the effects of the travelled work because a lot of attention has been focused on getting Dreamliner 1 prepared.
Read Jon's report here.
Read Jon's report here.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, part 2
Jon Ostrower continues his three part series this time updating us on the supply chain with particular emphasis on Global Aeronautica. GA seems to be the slowest cog in the wheel and it remains to be seen if they can sufficiently up the rates. It took them 11 months to send ouver the center section for Dreamliner 4 and it wasn't 100% complete but close.
They need to get up the learning curve and do it fast.
Read Jon's report here.
They need to get up the learning curve and do it fast.
Read Jon's report here.
787 Brakes
Currently the only issue that stands between the 787 and it flying is the brake monitoring software (the labor issues notwithstanding).
Crane Co, GE, Smith and Boeing haven't really given a status update on this issue as of yet but it certainly doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or not. Pat Shanahan has said that this issue is helping to eat up some of the schedule margin that the program has which cannot be a good thing. How much margin is left is unclear but in Jon Ostrower's blog, Boeing plans to have all hardware certified for safety of flight and ready to go for first flight by the end of the third week of August at the latest.
Now with the brake monitoring system.
The hardware is fine and the software has been written. Crane has to verify the software works and along with that Crane also has to collect all the documentation (and perhaps even prepare documentation) related to the brake monitoring software for Safety of Flight certification, in other words the system can't be used until the FAA know that it's safe even for flight testing.
According to Pat Shanahan (quoted in Jon's blog), everything except for the brakes will safety of flight certified by the end of the third week of August at the latest. When that will take place is a matter of speculation but my guess is around late August to mid September. It will probably go inside the 767 hanger for some final assembly activities and perhaps installation of some flight test equipment and then outside for ground testing.
Crane Co, GE, Smith and Boeing haven't really given a status update on this issue as of yet but it certainly doesn't mean that there hasn't been progress or not. Pat Shanahan has said that this issue is helping to eat up some of the schedule margin that the program has which cannot be a good thing. How much margin is left is unclear but in Jon Ostrower's blog, Boeing plans to have all hardware certified for safety of flight and ready to go for first flight by the end of the third week of August at the latest.
Now with the brake monitoring system.
The hardware is fine and the software has been written. Crane has to verify the software works and along with that Crane also has to collect all the documentation (and perhaps even prepare documentation) related to the brake monitoring software for Safety of Flight certification, in other words the system can't be used until the FAA know that it's safe even for flight testing.
According to Pat Shanahan (quoted in Jon's blog), everything except for the brakes will safety of flight certified by the end of the third week of August at the latest. When that will take place is a matter of speculation but my guess is around late August to mid September. It will probably go inside the 767 hanger for some final assembly activities and perhaps installation of some flight test equipment and then outside for ground testing.
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Flightblogger 787 Update, Part 1
Jon Ostrower just posted a detailed update on the 787. It'll be in three parts with the first part here. The second part will deal with the supply chain and the last part will deal with Dreamliners 2 through 6.
There are two big issues between now and first flight: the brake monitoring issue and the labor contract negotiations with IAM. The later, in my opinion, represents the greatest risk to the 787 schedule. If there is a long strike then production could be significantly set back that delivering even 25 787s in 2009 will be very difficult. Boeing knows this and IAM leadership knows this and will be dealing from a position of strength. It'll be in Boeing's best interest to settle with IAM before Sept. 1st to ensure the 787 program continues uninterrupted.
There are two big issues between now and first flight: the brake monitoring issue and the labor contract negotiations with IAM. The later, in my opinion, represents the greatest risk to the 787 schedule. If there is a long strike then production could be significantly set back that delivering even 25 787s in 2009 will be very difficult. Boeing knows this and IAM leadership knows this and will be dealing from a position of strength. It'll be in Boeing's best interest to settle with IAM before Sept. 1st to ensure the 787 program continues uninterrupted.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Dreamliner 4 to start assembly soon
UPDATE: Another LCF just left Charleston with the main fuselage for Dreamliner 4. See it here.
The nose section for Dreamliner 4 should be in Everett later today thus setting the stage for the start of final assembly. The Dreamlifter is already in Wichita and has filed a flight plan to go on to Everett. No word yet on when the repaired main fusealge section is due in Everett but my guess is by tomorrow.
The nose section for Dreamliner 4 should be in Everett later today thus setting the stage for the start of final assembly. The Dreamlifter is already in Wichita and has filed a flight plan to go on to Everett. No word yet on when the repaired main fusealge section is due in Everett but my guess is by tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Dreamliner 1 Update
My source has told me that Dreamliner 1 is close to start landing gear test inside the final assembly plant in Everett. While the airplane is still on its gear, it looks like Boeing is prepping to jack the airplane off its landing gear soon and that would mean that the gear swing tests should start shortly. There are jacks that are positioned under the wings and much of the scaffolding that surrounded the airplane, particularly around the wings is now gone. The aircraft is still not 100% finished. The engine cowl is only on the left engine and there are still a bunch of access panels that need to be reinstalled.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
787 Production Update
UPDATE II (7/30/2008): The start of final assembly of LN 4 has been pushed back to August 4, 2008. The Dreamlifter did not deliver any fusealge section from Wichita. It had a fuselage transport fixture that was returned to Japan yesterday when it flew from Charleston to Wichita then to Everett and then on to Nagoya.
UPDATE (7/28/2008): I just got word that LN 1 should be pulled out of the final assembly building just prior to the start of final assembly of LN 5 (projected to be around end of August). It'll go to building 40-24 (the 767 line) and then around September to the paint hanger to re-paint some of the sections (with all the work in the past year, some of the original paint was sure to have come off with all the assembly activities).
Lastly, one of the Dreamlifters might delivering the forward fuselage for LN 4 to Everett today as it filed a flight plan.
I just got word that the fourth flying 787 (LN 4) will enter final assembly on July 29th; one month later than expected due to the repair to the damage on the main fuselage. This ties closely to what I reported earlier that the two remaining sections (the forward fuselage and main fuselage) should be delivered around this weekend or early next week.
UPDATE (7/28/2008): I just got word that LN 1 should be pulled out of the final assembly building just prior to the start of final assembly of LN 5 (projected to be around end of August). It'll go to building 40-24 (the 767 line) and then around September to the paint hanger to re-paint some of the sections (with all the work in the past year, some of the original paint was sure to have come off with all the assembly activities).
Lastly, one of the Dreamlifters might delivering the forward fuselage for LN 4 to Everett today as it filed a flight plan.
I just got word that the fourth flying 787 (LN 4) will enter final assembly on July 29th; one month later than expected due to the repair to the damage on the main fuselage. This ties closely to what I reported earlier that the two remaining sections (the forward fuselage and main fuselage) should be delivered around this weekend or early next week.
American Airlines 767 with winglets
Jon Ostrower posted some pics and an article of the first American Airlines 767-300ER fitted out with Aviation Partners Boeing winglets. Read it here here and here. AA and Aviation Partners will flight test the 767 for the next four months for FAA certification. Read the press release here.
What does this mean for a potential AA 787 order. In my opinion it really doesn't change anything. Boeing's backlog for the 787 is out to 2017 or so and AA is in no financial position to order the 787. They want to get rid of the MD-80s in their fleet first and replace them with the 737NGs. In the meantime they can refit the 767s with the winglets to achieve a 5 to 6 percent fuel savings. AA will be in no hurry to replace the 767s just yet but they will probably start to take a look at the 787 in a couple years.
What does this mean for a potential AA 787 order. In my opinion it really doesn't change anything. Boeing's backlog for the 787 is out to 2017 or so and AA is in no financial position to order the 787. They want to get rid of the MD-80s in their fleet first and replace them with the 737NGs. In the meantime they can refit the 767s with the winglets to achieve a 5 to 6 percent fuel savings. AA will be in no hurry to replace the 767s just yet but they will probably start to take a look at the 787 in a couple years.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Short 787 Update
This morning on Boeing's 2nd quarter earnings conference call, Jim McNerney revealed that LN 1 had its hydraulics powered on this past weekend and Boeing engineers tested some of the movable flight surfaces. He also said that airplane 1 is structurally complete but that there is a few more systems related installations that need to be accomplished at this point. He also reiterated that Boeing is on track for first flight in the 4th quarter and that they are either on or slightly ahead of their schedule.
I found out this evening that position 1 where all the major pieces are assembled together, is being prepped for LN 4 though the main fuselage and the forward fuselage have not been delivered. Those sections should be in soon and my guess is that this will take place around the end of this weekend or Monday.
Lastly, workers are attached the cowling on the left engine of LN 1 today.
Jon Ostrower also posted a short 787 update where he revealed that the elevators are not yet installed on the aircraft. Read his article here.
I found out this evening that position 1 where all the major pieces are assembled together, is being prepped for LN 4 though the main fuselage and the forward fuselage have not been delivered. Those sections should be in soon and my guess is that this will take place around the end of this weekend or Monday.
Lastly, workers are attached the cowling on the left engine of LN 1 today.
Jon Ostrower also posted a short 787 update where he revealed that the elevators are not yet installed on the aircraft. Read his article here.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Farnborough 2008, Final Order summary
Farnborough 2008
July 17th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Synergy Aerospace orders 10 A350-800 from Airbus
Alis Aerolinee Italiane orders 5 A330F with 3 options from Airbus (MoU)
July 16th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Malaysia Airlines orders 35 737-800 from Boeing (previously booked) along with 20 options
Asiana order 30 A350s with 10 more options from Airbus
An unidentified customer order 20 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
AMA Asset Management orders 5 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
Malev Orders 4 Q400 from Bombardier
Aviation Capital Group ordered 15 737-700 from Boeing
Ilyushin Finance ordered 31 TU-204SM-100 from Tupolev
July 15th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Qatar Airways orders 4 A321 from Airbus with 2 A321 options (MoU)
Tunis Air orders 10 A320, 3 A330, and 3 A350 from Airbus
Arik Air orders 7 737-800 (previously booked) and an LoI for 4 747-8I
Avialeasing order 24 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi with 16 options
Aviation Capital Group order 23 A320 from Airbus
DAE firms 70 A320 and 30 A350 from Airbus* (this is a firming of an order that was announced in Nov. 2007 at the Dubai Air Show)
Aeroflot orders 5 A321 from Airbus
Air China orders 15 777-300ER and 30 737-800s from Boeing (both of these have been previously booked in 2007, signed in Farnborough on 7/17/08)
July 14th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Bombardier launches C Series of short/medium haul aircraft with an LoI for 30 aircraft from Lufthansa
FlyDubai orders 50 737-800 aircraft (a new order) (with ability to change to 737-900ER), will take 4 737-800 on lease from Babcock
Etihad order 35 787-9 (previously booked) along with 10 777-300ER (also previously booked). They have also taken the following options and rights: 25 options on 787 and 10 options on 777, 10 rights on the 787 and 5 on 777.
Saudi Arabian Airlines order 8 A330-300 from Airbus
Niki orders 5 E190s from Embrarer
NASAIR orders 5 E190s from Embraer
Aeromexico orders 12 E190s from Embrarer
Etihad order 20 A320, 25 A350 and 10 A380 from Airbus. They have taken the following options and rights: 5 A320 options, 10 A350 options, 5 A380 options; 15 A320 rights, 15 A350 rights and 5 A380 rights.
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321 (MoU)
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350* (Was announced at the Dubai Air Show but final contract signed at Farnborough)
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Synergy Aerospace – 10 x A350-800
Alis Aerolinee Italiane – 5 x A330F (MoU)
Airbus Total – 256 (247 firm orders, 9 MoU)
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777-300ER and 30 x 737-800** (signed at Farnborough on 7/17/08)
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700
Boeing Total – 201 (197 firm, 4 LoI)
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400
Bombardier Total – 34 (30 LoI)
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22 (all firm)
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100
Sukhoi Total – 49
Tupolev:
Ilyushin Finance - 31 x Tu-204SM-100
Tupolev Total – 31
Number by Type (Includes any LoI or MoU orders)
A320 – 132
A330 - 16
A350 - 98
A380 - 10
737 - 137
747 - 4
777 - 25
787 - 35
C-Series - 30
SuperJet 100 - 49
TU-204 - 31
E-190 - 22
Q400 - 4
Show Totals – 593
July 17th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Synergy Aerospace orders 10 A350-800 from Airbus
Alis Aerolinee Italiane orders 5 A330F with 3 options from Airbus (MoU)
July 16th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Malaysia Airlines orders 35 737-800 from Boeing (previously booked) along with 20 options
Asiana order 30 A350s with 10 more options from Airbus
An unidentified customer order 20 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
AMA Asset Management orders 5 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
Malev Orders 4 Q400 from Bombardier
Aviation Capital Group ordered 15 737-700 from Boeing
Ilyushin Finance ordered 31 TU-204SM-100 from Tupolev
July 15th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Qatar Airways orders 4 A321 from Airbus with 2 A321 options (MoU)
Tunis Air orders 10 A320, 3 A330, and 3 A350 from Airbus
Arik Air orders 7 737-800 (previously booked) and an LoI for 4 747-8I
Avialeasing order 24 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi with 16 options
Aviation Capital Group order 23 A320 from Airbus
DAE firms 70 A320 and 30 A350 from Airbus* (this is a firming of an order that was announced in Nov. 2007 at the Dubai Air Show)
Aeroflot orders 5 A321 from Airbus
Air China orders 15 777-300ER and 30 737-800s from Boeing (both of these have been previously booked in 2007, signed in Farnborough on 7/17/08)
July 14th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
Bombardier launches C Series of short/medium haul aircraft with an LoI for 30 aircraft from Lufthansa
FlyDubai orders 50 737-800 aircraft (a new order) (with ability to change to 737-900ER), will take 4 737-800 on lease from Babcock
Etihad order 35 787-9 (previously booked) along with 10 777-300ER (also previously booked). They have also taken the following options and rights: 25 options on 787 and 10 options on 777, 10 rights on the 787 and 5 on 777.
Saudi Arabian Airlines order 8 A330-300 from Airbus
Niki orders 5 E190s from Embrarer
NASAIR orders 5 E190s from Embraer
Aeromexico orders 12 E190s from Embrarer
Etihad order 20 A320, 25 A350 and 10 A380 from Airbus. They have taken the following options and rights: 5 A320 options, 10 A350 options, 5 A380 options; 15 A320 rights, 15 A350 rights and 5 A380 rights.
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321 (MoU)
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350* (Was announced at the Dubai Air Show but final contract signed at Farnborough)
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Synergy Aerospace – 10 x A350-800
Alis Aerolinee Italiane – 5 x A330F (MoU)
Airbus Total – 256 (247 firm orders, 9 MoU)
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777-300ER and 30 x 737-800** (signed at Farnborough on 7/17/08)
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700
Boeing Total – 201 (197 firm, 4 LoI)
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400
Bombardier Total – 34 (30 LoI)
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22 (all firm)
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100
Sukhoi Total – 49
Tupolev:
Ilyushin Finance - 31 x Tu-204SM-100
Tupolev Total – 31
Number by Type (Includes any LoI or MoU orders)
A320 – 132
A330 - 16
A350 - 98
A380 - 10
737 - 137
747 - 4
777 - 25
787 - 35
C-Series - 30
SuperJet 100 - 49
TU-204 - 31
E-190 - 22
Q400 - 4
Show Totals – 593
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Farnborough 2008, Day 4 Order summary
Farnborough 2008
July 17th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
*Synergy Aerospace orders 10 A350 from Airbus
*Alis Aerolinee Italiane orders 5 A330F with 3 options from Airbus
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350* (Was announced at the Dubai Air Show but final contract signed at Farnborough)
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Synergy Aerospace – 10 x A350
Alis Aerolinee Italiane – 5 x A330F
Airbus Total – 256
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737** (signed at Farnborough on 7/17/08)
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700
Boeing Total – 201
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400
Bombardier Total – 34
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100
Sukhoi Total – 49
Tupolev:
Ilyushin Finance - 31 x Tu-204SM-100
Tupolev Total – 31
Show Totals – 593
July 17th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
*Synergy Aerospace orders 10 A350 from Airbus
*Alis Aerolinee Italiane orders 5 A330F with 3 options from Airbus
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350* (Was announced at the Dubai Air Show but final contract signed at Farnborough)
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Synergy Aerospace – 10 x A350
Alis Aerolinee Italiane – 5 x A330F
Airbus Total – 256
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737** (signed at Farnborough on 7/17/08)
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700
Boeing Total – 201
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400
Bombardier Total – 34
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100
Sukhoi Total – 49
Tupolev:
Ilyushin Finance - 31 x Tu-204SM-100
Tupolev Total – 31
Show Totals – 593
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
FT: Airbus Hampered By Cultural Differences
The Financial Times put out an interesting and disturbing article on tensions at Airbus’ A380 final assembly line. Read it here.
While it has always been normal to have labor tensions at any global manufacturing firm, it is particularly disturbing to have strife amongst groups of workers who need to work together. Even if you have strife as it seems to be the case in Toulouse, the underlying tensions are nationalistic in nature bought on by the stress of the getting the A380 out the door quickly. In other words the disputes have become the French vs. the Germans.
Airbus was created with the hopes of pooling the aerospace talent across the European continent in order to be more competitive with the US manufacturers and they have succeeded in that. Times were good and the concept of the different European nationalities working together seemed to have been validated as workers of different nationalities got along . But that was when times were good but now with the pressures of delivering the A380s weighing on them as well as a host of other negative developments (A400M, the insider trading investigation, and Power8) Airbus workers have now set up each other and the battle lines have been drawn along nationalists lines.
While it’s certainly not going to bring down Airbus it can seriously hurt the A380 program at a critical point of the recovery plan and could lead to further delays.
While it has always been normal to have labor tensions at any global manufacturing firm, it is particularly disturbing to have strife amongst groups of workers who need to work together. Even if you have strife as it seems to be the case in Toulouse, the underlying tensions are nationalistic in nature bought on by the stress of the getting the A380 out the door quickly. In other words the disputes have become the French vs. the Germans.
Airbus was created with the hopes of pooling the aerospace talent across the European continent in order to be more competitive with the US manufacturers and they have succeeded in that. Times were good and the concept of the different European nationalities working together seemed to have been validated as workers of different nationalities got along . But that was when times were good but now with the pressures of delivering the A380s weighing on them as well as a host of other negative developments (A400M, the insider trading investigation, and Power8) Airbus workers have now set up each other and the battle lines have been drawn along nationalists lines.
While it’s certainly not going to bring down Airbus it can seriously hurt the A380 program at a critical point of the recovery plan and could lead to further delays.
Farnborough 2008, Day 3 Order summary
Farnborough 2008
July 16th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
*Malaysia Airlines orders 35 737-800 from Boeing (previously booked) along with 20 options
*Asiana order 30 A350s with 10 more options from Airbus
*An unidentified customer order 20 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
*AMA Asset Management orders 5 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
*Malev Orders 4 Q400 from Bombardier
*Aviation Capital Group ordered 15 737-700 from Boeing
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350*
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Airbus Total – 241
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700
Boeing Total – 201
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400
Bombardier Total – 34
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100
Sukhoi Total – 49
Show Totals – 547
Of note, Aviation Capital also expressed interest in buying 10 to 15 more 787s
July 16th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
*Malaysia Airlines orders 35 737-800 from Boeing (previously booked) along with 20 options
*Asiana order 30 A350s with 10 more options from Airbus
*An unidentified customer order 20 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
*AMA Asset Management orders 5 Sukhoi SuperJet 100 from Sukhoi
*Malev Orders 4 Q400 from Bombardier
*Aviation Capital Group ordered 15 737-700 from Boeing
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350*
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Asiana – 30 x A350
Airbus Total – 241
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737
Malaysia Airlines – 35 x 737-800
Aviation Capital Group – 15 x 737-700
Boeing Total – 201
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Malev Hungarian Airlines – 4 X Q400
Bombardier Total – 34
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet 100
Unidentified – 20 x SuperJet 100
AMA Asset Management – 5 x SuperJet 100
Sukhoi Total – 49
Show Totals – 547
Of note, Aviation Capital also expressed interest in buying 10 to 15 more 787s
Boeing considering a 2nd 787 assembly line?
I got an email this morning from a reliable source stating that the eventual plan for 787 production is to build on 10/month on two separate lines. The first line is obviously already up and running inside building 40-26. The second line would go in building 40-24 which is where the current 767 production line is.
767 production would move to a small bay on the north side of Boeing factory at Everett. There is as of now, no timetable for all this to happen but it does raise quite a few questions as well as possibilities.
Questions: What happens if Boeing wins the tanker re-bid with the 767? The answer is not clear but the tanker would account for one more 767/month. It is probably possible that the new 767 final assembly line location should be able to handle that.
Couldn't the existing 787 line handle the increase of output to 10/month? It probably can but they probably want to set up two lines for a couple reasons: 1) to increase production significantly and also to provide back up in case there are issues with the other production line.
Possibilities: Boeing can really up the production rates of the 787 in all it's variants which at one point will probably include the 787-10 and a 787F in addition to the 787-8, 787-9 and 787-3. Now with all that will be one huge questions: What can be the optimum supplier throughput to the final assembly line in Everett? And that's a question not only for the primary Boeing suppliers but the secondary and tertiary suppliers as well. Throughput, or the rate that the supplier can supply to the programs final assembly line, is going to be key in getting production going as well as catching up to the 12 to 30 month delays facing the 787 customers.
Lastly, Scott Hamilton and Leeham & Co. conducted a great interview with Pat Shanahan. You can read it here.
UPDATE
On the second final assembly line my source said that this action (moving the 767 line and replacing it with the 787 line) is more than likely to happen regardless of what happens to the KC-X re-bid decision. The 787 program needs the space. Already there has been some evidence of this as the fatigue test airframe was moved from 40-26 to 40-24 to finish up assembly prior to be taken out to the fatigue test site.
UPDATE 2
Check out the Flightblogger post.
Update 3
Qatar Airways CEO weighs in on Boeing opening a 2nd line for the 787. He basically says it's a no-brainer. Duh! Read the article here.
767 production would move to a small bay on the north side of Boeing factory at Everett. There is as of now, no timetable for all this to happen but it does raise quite a few questions as well as possibilities.
Questions: What happens if Boeing wins the tanker re-bid with the 767? The answer is not clear but the tanker would account for one more 767/month. It is probably possible that the new 767 final assembly line location should be able to handle that.
Couldn't the existing 787 line handle the increase of output to 10/month? It probably can but they probably want to set up two lines for a couple reasons: 1) to increase production significantly and also to provide back up in case there are issues with the other production line.
Possibilities: Boeing can really up the production rates of the 787 in all it's variants which at one point will probably include the 787-10 and a 787F in addition to the 787-8, 787-9 and 787-3. Now with all that will be one huge questions: What can be the optimum supplier throughput to the final assembly line in Everett? And that's a question not only for the primary Boeing suppliers but the secondary and tertiary suppliers as well. Throughput, or the rate that the supplier can supply to the programs final assembly line, is going to be key in getting production going as well as catching up to the 12 to 30 month delays facing the 787 customers.
Lastly, Scott Hamilton and Leeham & Co. conducted a great interview with Pat Shanahan. You can read it here.
UPDATE
On the second final assembly line my source said that this action (moving the 767 line and replacing it with the 787 line) is more than likely to happen regardless of what happens to the KC-X re-bid decision. The 787 program needs the space. Already there has been some evidence of this as the fatigue test airframe was moved from 40-26 to 40-24 to finish up assembly prior to be taken out to the fatigue test site.
UPDATE 2
Check out the Flightblogger post.
Update 3
Qatar Airways CEO weighs in on Boeing opening a 2nd line for the 787. He basically says it's a no-brainer. Duh! Read the article here.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Farnborough 2008, Day 2 Order summary
July 15th, Commercial Aircraft Order highlights
*Qatar Airways orders 4 A321 from Airbus with 2 A321 options
*Tunis Air orders 10 A320, 3 A330, and 3 A350 from Airbus
*Arik Air orders 7 737-800 (previously booked) and an LoI for 4 747-8I
*Avialeasing order 24 Sukhoi SuperJet from Sukhoi with 16 options
*Aviation Capital Group orders 23 A320 from Airbus
*DAE orders 70 A320 and 30 A350 from Airbus* (
this is a firming of an order that was announced in Nov. 2007 at the Dubai Air Show)
*Aeroflot orders 5 A321 from Airbus
*Air China orders 15 777 and 30 737s from Boeing (both of these may have been previously booked)
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350*
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Airbus Total – 211
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737
Boeing Total – 151
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Bombardier Total – 30
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet
Sukhoi Total – 24
Show Totals – 438
By the way...Look for Malyasia Air to finalize an order for 35 737-800s tomorrow along with 20 options.
*Qatar Airways orders 4 A321 from Airbus with 2 A321 options
*Tunis Air orders 10 A320, 3 A330, and 3 A350 from Airbus
*Arik Air orders 7 737-800 (previously booked) and an LoI for 4 747-8I
*Avialeasing order 24 Sukhoi SuperJet from Sukhoi with 16 options
*Aviation Capital Group orders 23 A320 from Airbus
*DAE orders 70 A320 and 30 A350 from Airbus* (
this is a firming of an order that was announced in Nov. 2007 at the Dubai Air Show)
*Aeroflot orders 5 A321 from Airbus
*Air China orders 15 777 and 30 737s from Boeing (both of these may have been previously booked)
Running Totals:
Airbus:
Saudi Arabian – 8 x A330-300
Etihad – 20 x A320, 25 X A350, 10 x A380
Qatar Air – 4 x A321
TunisAir – 10 x A320, 3 x A330, 3 x A350
Aviation Capital Group – 23 x A320
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise – 70 x A320, 30 x A350*
Aeroflot – 5 x A321
Airbus Total – 211
Boeing:
FlyDubai – 50 x 737-800
Etihad – 35 x 787-9 and 10 x 777-300ER
Arik Air – 7 x 737-800 and 4 x 747-8I (LoI)
Air China – 15 x 777 and 30 x 737
Boeing Total – 151
Bombardier:
Lufthansa - 30 x C130 or C110
Bombardier Total – 30
Embrarer:
NIKI – 5 x E190
NASAIR – 5 x E190
Aeromexico – 12 x E190
Embrarer Total – 22
Sukhoi:
Avialeasing – 24 x SuperJet
Sukhoi Total – 24
Show Totals – 438
By the way...Look for Malyasia Air to finalize an order for 35 737-800s tomorrow along with 20 options.
Boeing 787 Update at Farnborough
Pat Shanahan gave a 787 update this morning in the UK though short on details (as opposed to the one in April) it still suggests that they are on track for first flight late this year. Power on was successfully completed with a few minor glitches that were quickly resolved. Boeing is finalizing the shipping date of the two remaining sections for LN 4 later this week. My guess is that they will be in Everett by the end of next week but we’ll see.
Boeing is planning to activate LN 1’s hydraulic system next week, otherwise known as “oil” on (as opposed to power on). This will allow Boeing to raise and lower the landing gear in the hanger before first flight (you don’t want to test something like that on first flight in case something goes wrong). It will also allow Boeing to test all the movable flight surfaces (flaps, slats, elevator, rudder and speed brakes). As reported on this web site earlier, Boeing was planning to move the fatigue air frame from 40-24 to the fatigue test area and move LN 1 from 40-26 to 40-24. The later move is probably in doubt due to hydraulic on next week and the need to test some of the mechanical systems. I think the move of LN 1 probably won’t occur until 1st to 2nd week of August
Regarding LN 4 – the damage to the main fuselage caused a disruption in the schedule and the certification process maybe impacted though Boeing says they do have some schedule margin to absorb the disruption in the schedule.
Speaking of margin, Shanahan said that small glitches in the production schedule is eating up some of the margin. I’m presuming that he’s talking about LN 4 and that may be a cause for concern further down with certification testing. Everett is now the bottleneck for continuing production. The suppliers are no longer the issue and they have greatly improved on reducing traveled work. Look for no traveled work starting with LN 8, by then Global Aeronautica should be shipping 100% complete sections, Spirit is already shipping 100% complete sections with LN 4 and Vought will ship 100% complete rear fuselage sections starting with LN 5.
One issue with regards to the road to first flight is the traceability of the brake control software to meeting certification requirement which is being characterized as a minor issue and that a fix is being implemented. Crane Co. is responsible for that part of the Dreamliner.
Right now Boeing is saying that APU and engine testing is due to start next month, followed by gauntlet testing (a series of tests that trick the airplane’s computer into thinking that it’s in flight and see how the systems react to normal flight procedures as well as in flight anomalies). This will be followed by taxi and brake tests and then first flight. Shanahan is saying first flight should take place around November but I personally think it’ll be October if there are no major issues.
So far Boeing has completed 98% of safety of hardware testing, 96% of hardware is qualified for first flight (will be 100% by 2nd week of August) and 95% of hardware is ready for first flight. Despite this progress there is still some part shortages with LN 1 though these are minor. There is still some work to do in the mid fuselage and the wing of LN 1 and they need some tubing to complete the fuel system on the airplane as well. Also they need to complete airplane 2 before airplane 1 can fly as airplane 2 will be used for ground verification tests. Finishing up work in the mid fuselage of LN 2 also has eaten into some of the margin.
In terms of future variants, Boeing is planning to finish trade studies for the 787-9 by the end of the year and have a firm configuration for the 787-9 by the 2nd quarter of 2009 and entry into service by early 2012. They also said that the 787-3 will benefit from the experience gained on the 787-8 and 787-9 thus indicating that they are still going to go ahead with that variant though the time table is still up in the air.
On the static test aircraft frame, testing is due to start soon with three main tests to be done soon: pressurization testing, leading/trailing edge testing, and vibration testing.
Until the next update…have fun and keep your head in the clouds!
Boeing is planning to activate LN 1’s hydraulic system next week, otherwise known as “oil” on (as opposed to power on). This will allow Boeing to raise and lower the landing gear in the hanger before first flight (you don’t want to test something like that on first flight in case something goes wrong). It will also allow Boeing to test all the movable flight surfaces (flaps, slats, elevator, rudder and speed brakes). As reported on this web site earlier, Boeing was planning to move the fatigue air frame from 40-24 to the fatigue test area and move LN 1 from 40-26 to 40-24. The later move is probably in doubt due to hydraulic on next week and the need to test some of the mechanical systems. I think the move of LN 1 probably won’t occur until 1st to 2nd week of August
Regarding LN 4 – the damage to the main fuselage caused a disruption in the schedule and the certification process maybe impacted though Boeing says they do have some schedule margin to absorb the disruption in the schedule.
Speaking of margin, Shanahan said that small glitches in the production schedule is eating up some of the margin. I’m presuming that he’s talking about LN 4 and that may be a cause for concern further down with certification testing. Everett is now the bottleneck for continuing production. The suppliers are no longer the issue and they have greatly improved on reducing traveled work. Look for no traveled work starting with LN 8, by then Global Aeronautica should be shipping 100% complete sections, Spirit is already shipping 100% complete sections with LN 4 and Vought will ship 100% complete rear fuselage sections starting with LN 5.
One issue with regards to the road to first flight is the traceability of the brake control software to meeting certification requirement which is being characterized as a minor issue and that a fix is being implemented. Crane Co. is responsible for that part of the Dreamliner.
Right now Boeing is saying that APU and engine testing is due to start next month, followed by gauntlet testing (a series of tests that trick the airplane’s computer into thinking that it’s in flight and see how the systems react to normal flight procedures as well as in flight anomalies). This will be followed by taxi and brake tests and then first flight. Shanahan is saying first flight should take place around November but I personally think it’ll be October if there are no major issues.
So far Boeing has completed 98% of safety of hardware testing, 96% of hardware is qualified for first flight (will be 100% by 2nd week of August) and 95% of hardware is ready for first flight. Despite this progress there is still some part shortages with LN 1 though these are minor. There is still some work to do in the mid fuselage and the wing of LN 1 and they need some tubing to complete the fuel system on the airplane as well. Also they need to complete airplane 2 before airplane 1 can fly as airplane 2 will be used for ground verification tests. Finishing up work in the mid fuselage of LN 2 also has eaten into some of the margin.
In terms of future variants, Boeing is planning to finish trade studies for the 787-9 by the end of the year and have a firm configuration for the 787-9 by the 2nd quarter of 2009 and entry into service by early 2012. They also said that the 787-3 will benefit from the experience gained on the 787-8 and 787-9 thus indicating that they are still going to go ahead with that variant though the time table is still up in the air.
On the static test aircraft frame, testing is due to start soon with three main tests to be done soon: pressurization testing, leading/trailing edge testing, and vibration testing.
Until the next update…have fun and keep your head in the clouds!
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