Boeing records 9 787 orders in April

Despite the loss of 10 787-9 orders from United Airlines, Boeing did record 9 x 787 orders in the month including 1 x 787-8 BBJ, 2 x 787-9 for Air Tahiti Nui and 6 x 787-8 for an unidentified customer.

I believe, though I have no evidence yet, that the 6 x 787-8 orders are for Ethiopian and will come from the 6 assembled "terrible teens" that are awaiting change incorporation and re-work at Everett.

One minor change is that American Airlines will now take 20 787-8 (a reduction of one) and 22 787-9 (an increase of 1).

Boeing attempts to build and deliver 787-9 in 67 days

Boeing is going to try and build and deliver a 787-9 for Scoot in 67 days.  The aircraft in questions, ZB130 (LN 308, 9V-OJD) started final assembly on March 23 and rolled out on April 22, which was 30 days later, from the main 787 assembly line 40-26 in Everett.  It took its first flight today, May 6 which is 2 weeks after rolling out and is projected to spend 23 days in pre-delivery.

ZB130 still has to be painted that should happen between May 10 and May 15th with delivery occurring on May 29th.  This would be 67 days from the time the aircraft entered final assembly to the time it would be delivered.  Of course this could be derailed if there are maintenance or build issues or if Scoot is not prepared to take delivery for some reason.

If Boeing is able to accomplish this, it would be a milestone event in the 787 program as Boeing has yet to build and deliver a 787 in under 70 days.  The current record is 76 days when Boeing built and delivered a 787 to Arke (owned by TUI Travel) earlier this year.  That aircraft, ZA324 (LN 281, PF-TFM) was built in Everett and spent 38 days in final assembly (40-24 surge line), 24 days in pre-flight testing and paint, and 14 days in pre-delivery.  Boeing would hve more confidence in increasing the production rate as well reaffirm their production methods with the aim of further reducing production costs.  If Boeing can demonstrate faster production and delivery times, it can go a long way to reducing 787 production costs which has been a drain on its earnings,

787 April 2015 Month End Report

Boeing started final assembly on 12 Dreamliners in April while rolling out a further 12 from their factories. Boeing was able to deliver 11. This put Boeing's 787 production efficiency at 1.09 (12 roll out/11 deliveries) which is slightly higher than the last 2 months and is higher than desirable.  An efficiency ratio less than 1 indicates that Boeing delivering more 787s than they are rolling out and would be desirable for times when Boeing need to deliver early production and/or test flight aircraft or during times when there are deliver delays like the one that occurred when Zodiac fell behind seat deliveries.  In an ideal world roll outs would match deliveries and efficiency ratio would be 1. Thus far this year, the 787 production efficiency is slightly over 1 at 1.02.  However what is impressive to note is how spread out deliveries have been though the month of April.

Notable deliveries include a 787-9 delivered to a BBJ operator Kalair as well as 2 delayed 787-8 for American bringing their fleet to 4. American has been conducting training flights since January and will start revenue flights this month in domestic routes (Dallas to Chicago) and international operations in June.

It appears that Boeing has an opportunity to deliver 13 to 14 787s in May though almost half of these airplanes have yet to fly a B-1 test flight.  It is an ambitious delivery schedule with at least 5 of these deliveries schedule to be made on May 21, just before the start of the Memorial Day weekend.  If Etihad is able to take up two 787-9 in May then Boeing will have delivered 14 787s. Key to achieving this delivery rate is timely flight tests of the production 787s as well as no more supplier issues.

On the production front, Boeing will start final assembly on the first 787-9 for Air Canada as well as a 787-8 BBJ for the Sultan of Brunei.  Boeing appears to be aiming to start final assembly on 11 787s this month (with 4 of them in North Charleston like in April) so I have to wonder if they're already at a higher rate given that they rolled out 12 airplanes and started final assembly on 11 in April.  It's something that will be watched, particularly in North Charleston where it may appear that Boeing is at a 4/month rate.

In recent news, everyone is well aware of United's order switch of 10 787-9 for 10 777-300ER and American Airlines' deferral of 5 787s due next year now schedule for delivery in 2017 and 2018.  The impact to the order book was minimal but it does free up slots (especially for next year) that will be most likely be taken up by Hainan Airlines as they expect to place a large order for the 787-9. American's switching of delivery slots also opens up 5 near term slots for customers, potentially also for Hainan's upcoming 787-9 order. American will stall take delivery of 8 787s next year.  All in all these adjustments may actually help Boeing win more orders later this year, especially with the Paris Air Show coming up next month.  I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing announces the Hainan 787-9 order there and perhaps some exercising of some options.  Also I expect Air Austral's order for two 787-8 to be reveals (it's already booked as a UFO order on Boeing's order and delivery web site).  The next 6 weeks we may see some more unidentified 787 order being booked that will be revealed in mid June.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 production cost still increasing but at a slower rate as deliveries become more streamlined.

There was a little drama as I work up Thursday morning to an email from Google Blogger saying that they had deleted my blog.  A number of readers emailed me about it and a forum topic on airliners.net was created.  Here's the story.  Bloggers automated systems accidentally flagged the blog a TOS (Terms of Service) violator for phishing.  Well nothing can be further from the truth about this blog or my intentions.  I appealed to Blogger to restore the blog which they had thankfully done but for a few hours I was faced with the disheartening possibility of loosing my archived blog posts though the 787 tables were unaffected and are still accessible if you had the URL.  Lesson learned - I'm going to back up my blog posts.  Now back to our regularly scheduled programming!

The 787 program made progress on the delivery front but it continues to be a drag on Boeing’s financial results.  Notably, deferred production cost increased during the 1^st quarter by $793mm to $26.9bn and increased 787 deliveries dragged down operating margins for BCA from 11.8% to 10.5% (because of the continued high cost of producing each 787 vs. the actual cash they have bought in is negative).  While Boeing is still struggling to drive down 787 production cost, they expect to see a net profit on each unit produced sometime late this year and also reported that 787-8 unit costs over the last 190 787-8 deliveries declined 30% while 787-9 unit cost declines 25% over the first 20 deliveries.  Boeing says that they expect deferred costs to start declining soon after they achieve rate break to 12/month which is expected to take place in late 2016.  Greg Smith, Boeing's CFO said:

When you look over that time frame (fourth quarter 2014 to 1st quarter 20015), we have seen improved performance. In particular, I noted on the 787-9, is they're coming down the learning curve in a very aggressive manner. And I think that goes to the lessons learned off the 787-8 in getting those into the production system. So that introduction of that airplane is going very well. And as you know, that will be close to half of our deliveries this year. So that smooth introduction is important.

Looking at 787 production at Everett and Charleston, it does appear that Boeing is making a drive to reduce assembly times as well as time to delivery.  In reviewing the 787 tables we can see that the time in final assembly in Charleston is about 42 to 46 days while in 40-24 the assembly times is around 37 to 39 days.  In 40-26 the final assembly times is much shorter..around 30 days.  Post assembly times are also improving with Charleston airplanes taking about 40 to 50 days from the end of final assembly to delivery.  At Everett the time is now ranging from 45 to about 75 but the more realistic time frame is about 60 days. Overall both locations are taking about 90 to 110 days to assembly, test, fly and deliver 787s though it appears that the numbers are trending down, particularly in North Charleston.  Of course, delivery times is also driven by customer needs so while Boeing may be ready to deliver, the customer may not be.

A silver lining is that 787 deliveries thus far are more evenly spread out this month rather than being bunched up at the end of the month as is generally the case with 787 deliveries.  This can only help reduce cost in the program as Boeing doesn't have to spend more money in overtime at month end trying to make deliveries to customers thus bunching up the aircraft deliveries in the last few days of the month.  I do expect at least 5 more deliveries this month including 2 to American Airlines.  To date Boeing has delivered 266 787s, 38 787s in 2015, and 8 in April.  22 787-9s were delivered thus far and I expect that the number of 787-9 delivered, which are higher margin aircraft, should increase dramatically this year.  

Obviously Boeing deliveries numbers have been impacted by the production issues at Zodiac especially deliveries to American and Etihad.  No doubt 787 delivery numbers would have been stronger without the Zodiac issue.  Boeing doesn't expect the Zodiac problem to impact their delivery numbers for this year but the issue will persistent until the end of the 2nd quarter after which it is assumed that Zodiac would have its act together.

Lastly, Boeing's order book took a temporary hit when United Airlines, as expect, converted 10 787-9 to 777-300ER.  Additionally, American Airlines deferred 5 787s that were to be delivered in 2016 to 2017(4) and 2018(1).  American will now take 13 787s this year (3 already delivered), 8 in 2016, 13 in 2017 and 8 in 2018.  United is expected to take 11 more 787-9s by the end of the 1st quarter of 2016.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 April 2015 Mid Month report

For quite some time most 787 deliveries have been concentrated at the end of the month but thus far in April Boeing has delivered 3 787s and will probably deliver one more at the end of this week.  Having deliveries more spread out during the month would help Boeing reduce cost that comes when deliveries are “bunched up” at the end of month and the need for overtime to prepare these airplanes for delivery.

It’s no secret that Boeing’s first quarter deliver numbers were probably hurt by the Zodiac seat fiasco that delayed delivery of several 787s most notably to American Airlines.  Currently there are 4 787s for AA that appear to be ready for delivery (all four have had their first flights).  One is still stored in Victorville, Ca (contrary to press reports) and 3 others are in Everett with 2 having had their first flights this past weekend.  We should see two more 787-9s delivered by the end of April as well as 9 more 787s handed over to customers in addition to the 3 already delivered but that includes the 4 for American Airlines and 1 for Jetstar which has yet to make its first flight.  The total number of deliveries could be as low as 7 for the month of April if Boeing fails to deliver to AA and Jetstar. 787-8 make up the deliveries thus far and I expect Boeing to deliver 10 787-8 and only 2 787-9s in April.

Production continues at the 10/month pace.  As I reported earlier, Boeing rolled out the 300^th 787 built (a 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines) which is an important milestone (#400 should roll out around February of next year and #500 around Dec. 2016/Jan. 2017). A 787-8 for PrivatAir should start final assembly later on this month.  Boeing will (or has started) final assembly on 4 787-9 and 6 787-8.

During the past year or so I also have highlighted the efficiency of the 787 production system (or lack thereof at times).  During the first quarter, both the Everett and Charleston plants had an efficiency ratio of 1 with Charleston rolling out 9 and delivering 9 airplanes.  Everett rolled out 21 and delivered 21 787s.  Everett had delivered only 4 787 in January but made up the slow delivery rate in February and March. Thus far in April, Boeing has rolled out a total of 5 787s while delivering 3 for an efficiency ratio of 1.67.

One programming note: I will not make this into a paysite (yay) but I will publicly call out those who will use the information that is on my blog and not give proper credit.  I hope that such public shaming will force these people to change their behavior.  Thank you all for the support and encouraging messages.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing to roll out 300th 787 built tonight

Very late tonight (around 9PM local) in Everett, Boeing will roll out the 300th 787 built since the production of the 787 began in 2007.  The aircraft is ZB536 (LN 303, VN-A861) a 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines.  Boeing started final assembly of this aircraft on March 6th and it took 33 days for it to go through final assembly.  It will be parked for a week or so on the 40-51 ramp undergoing minor assembly tasks after which it should go to the flightline or paint.  This is an important milestone to have reached for Boeing.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

1st Quarter 2015 787 Report

UPDATE: Ok so moments after posting this Boeing put out it's O & D numbers for the 1st quarter.  There were 2 unidentified orders for 787-9 one for 6 (probably Oman Air) and one for 24 (wide open on the customer but could be Hainan plus 6 additional 787-9 taken on lease from ALC).  Boeing did deliver 30 787s per my earlier comments below.  Boeing total 787 order book is now over 1,100 and for the first time the total number of 787-9 orders (496) exceeds the total number of 787-8 orders (467).  This is trend I expect to continue as future orders will tend towards the 787-9 and 787-10 as well as conversions of some existing 787-8 orders to the 787-9 or 787-10.

The 1st quarter has come to an end during which Boeing has delivered 30 787s.  This pace keeps them on track for 120 deliveries by the end of the year.  In March, Boeing delivered 11 787s including the first aircraft from a lot of early production aircraft known as the "terrible teens."  This aircraft is ZA841 (LN 11, N507BJ) was sold to Korean Air to be used as a VIP transport for the South Korean government.  This aircraft was flown to Grant County International Airport for some unidentified purpose.  I can only speculate that it is there for storage, pilot and ground crew training, or interior installation.  Boeing has now delivered a total of 258 787s of which are 238 are 787-8 and 20 are 787-9.

What was also interesting about March deliveries was the number of 787-9 (5) delivered vs. the 787-8 (6), almost half of the delivery totals for the month.  For the quarter, Boeing delivered 10 787-9s vs. 20 787-8s.  This will be an important metric to watch as production cost come down on the 787-9 (and the 787 program as a whole) the margins on these larger version will be higher vs. the 787-8.  The more of these airplanes that are delivered the better Boeing's financial results will look.  It is expected that the 787-9 (and the 787-10) should be more profitable to the company to produce than the 787-8.  This profitability will be even more pronounced as Boeing has delivered over 50% of the 787-8 ordered thus far while only delivering less than 5% of the total 787-9 ordered to date.  Boeing has delivered 24% of the total 787 orders thus far.

Boeing booked 3 unidentified orders in March and also announced the firming of ANA order for 3 787-10.  I'm not sure if the two are one in the same.  There are more potential orders on horizon as Hainan Air, Oman Air and QANTAS may add to their existing orders an in significant numbers.  Hainan is talking about ordering 30 787-9.  I believe that this order may be a mix of leased aircraft as well as direct purchase from Boeing.  There is one 787-9, ordered by Air Lease Corp., that will be leased to Hainan Air (LN 430).  Oman Air has 3 787-8 and 6 787-9 on order according to the carriers CEO while Boeing's Order and Delivery website still lists their order as 6 787-8s.  Oman Air is expectign to take delivery of the 2 787-8s this year and the 787-9s next year.  The carrier is envisioning a widebody fleet of 25 all of which may be 787s though they do plan to evaluate the A330NEO.  QANTAS is already taking 787s for its Jetstar subsidiary since 2013 but they still hold 50 purchase rights which have been moved back over the last few years due to the carrier's poor financial health.  Now that QANTAS has regained a firmer financial footing, there is serious talk of exercising those 50 rights, the first of which calls for a delivery in 2017.  That mean that QANTAS needs to start firming these rights late this year or lose them and the valuable early delivery slots that Boeing can use for new or existing customers.  Turkish Airlines may be another carrier that may order the 787 this year through their timing is nebulous as is their intentions.

In April I am projecting 14 787 deliveries including Japan Airlines' first 787-9 (the 3rd 787-9 flight test airplane), and a whole gaggle of 787-8 for American Airlines that have been delayed because of the continuing saga at Zodiac.  Norwegian's final direct purchase 787-8 should also be delivered this month as well.

As far as rollouts are concerned, look for Vietnam Airlines' first 787-9 to come out of 40-26  as well as Air India's potentially final 787-8 emerging at the end of April from 40-26.  Xiamen's penultimate 787 will emerge from Charleston's 88-30 final assembly building around the third week of April. I believe we should see 5 787-8 and 5 787-9s rolling out of Boeing's factories this month. The only notable 787 that will start final assembly this month is the first 787-8 for PrivatAir.  Boeing will start assembling 6 787-8s and 4 787-9s in April.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing Donates ZA002 to Pima Air and Space Museum

In a surprise flight, ZA002, the 2nd test 787-8 was flown to Davis Monthan Air Force Base where it will be turned over to the Pima Air and Space Museum in Tuscon, Az.

The aircraft accumulated over 960 flight hours over 300 flights in support of flight testing and certification of the 787-8.  After it had completed these tasks Boeing stored the aircraft in Palmdale, Ca. until the flight today to Arizona.

ZA002 first flew on Dec. 22, 2009, one week after the maiden flight of sistership ZA001.  It had suffered an in flight fire on November 9, 2010 due to a piece of solder in a power distribution panel had caused a short circuit.  The aircraft landed safely in Texas without any injuries but this fire and the subsequent investigation and required fixes set back the 787 deliveries by 6 months.

Check out Pima's Facebook page for details.

787 Progress Report - March 25, 2015

Deliveries of 787s are still slow though this month but hopefully should start to pick up with 6 days left in the 1st quarter.  Thus far, Boeing has delivered 5 787s: 4 787-9s and 1 787-8 including the 1st 787-9 to be assembled at the North Charleston plant.  The latest delivery was a 787-9 delivered to AerCap on behalf of LAN who will operate it.  I expect that Boeing should be able to deliver 6 more 787s this month.

Production has been moving along without any overt signs of issues and each aircraft going through Everett still makes a stop on the 40-51 ramp to finish minor assembly tasks and for some to have their seats installed.

However flight testing activity has been noticeably thin over the last 2 to 3 weeks.  There are a couple of 787s that are scheduled to be delivered this month but have not flown their customer flights.  It maybe indicative that some customers are not yet ready to take delivery of their aircraft.

There's also been a lot of buzz about American Airlines 787 deliveries or lack thereof.  It does seem that the production issues with the Zodiac seats are persisting and are not only affecting Boeing or 787 deliveries but are impacting different aircraft and manufacturers (Airbus and Boeing).  That said, American has publicly stated that revenue flights won't start until May and the 2 airplanes that they have taken delivery are being used to train their pilots.  It doesn't make sense for AA to take delivery of more 787s if they don't intend to introduce them into revenue service within one month of taking possession.  Thus I don't see any more 787 deliveries until late April at the earliest.  The 2 AA 787s that have flown but not delivered are, I believe, fully outfitted with their seats.

Hainan Airlines announced in a public filing with the Shanghai Stock Exchange today that they intend to purchase 30 787-9s.  However, I believe that these 30 787-9s will be a mix of purchase and leased 787-9.  LN 430 (ZB763) is an aircraft earmarked for Air Lease Corp. (owned by Steven Udvar Hazy) and leased to Hainan Airlines.  ALC has 15 787-9s on order with Boeing so I wouldn't be surprised if the final order is 15 leased from ALC and 15 new 787-9 from Boeing. An article by Jon Ostrower in the Wall Street Journal says that deliveries are to start in 2021 and these slots were some of United Airlines 787-9 slots which are being given up in exchange for the 777-300ER order that UAL intends to place with Boeing.  These slots were initially offered to American Airlines which turned them down as they are focused on introducing the 787-8 into the fleet (replacing 767-200).

Air China is expecting to take delivery of its first Trent powered 787-9 (LN 419, ZB047) next year as well as part of their order of 15 aircraft.  In a bit of disappointing news, it seems that Rwandair will be buying 2 A330s instead of the 787. The carrier had options on 2 787s which were expected to be exercised for two of the "terrible teens" that are sitting on the Everett runway.  Rumor is that Ethiopian came in with a higher bid for these aircraft.  Another rumor is that EVA Air is in the final stages of buying the 787-10 as well as 777F.  The number of each is unknown.  If true it would be a huge boost for the 787-10 which hasn't received an order since early last year and a 3 plane commitment from ANA.

Lastly, a personal note from me.

I've started this blog almost 7 years ago and I've been complimented by many readers over the years and I certainly appreciate it.  The highest form of flattery is when people start to imitate you or cite the information that is in this blog, However there are certain individuals who have used the information in my posts or in the tables I have created without giving proper credit and have passed it on as if it is their own.  I have struggled to figure out want to do including communicating with the offenders but they have continued to steal my information.  I am considering making this a pay site but have not reached a definitive decision as of yet and not sure if that would solve the problem.  My intention for a long time was to just have a free blog that enthusiasts will enjoy reading but it seems that a few bad apples are intent on ruining this for their own gain.  I will keep you all apprised of my final decision regarding this blog.  Thank you for reading!

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

First 787-9 built at Boeing North Charleston flies away to Denver

Boeing Photo

Photo by reader

Photo by reader

Photo by reader

The first 787-9 to be built at Boeing North Charleston was formally flown away by United Airlines to it's hub in Denver.  The aircraft will go through the United process of inducting the aircraft into revenue service.

Boeing got the ok to start 787-9 deliveries after the FAA approved the 787-9 production certificate for the North Charleston plant.

United Airlines to take 250 787 to be delivered

United Airlines is suppose take the 250th 787 to be delivered to a customer tomorrow.  The aircraft is ZB170 (LN 269, N35953) is a 787-9 built at Boeing's North Charleston plant.  Boeing is quickly closing on delivering 25% of their total 787 orders and will most likely accomplish that next month barring any large firm orders.

787 production and delivery update, March 10, 2015

Production

Boeing's 787 production continues at the 10/month pace so far in March but according to sources it appears that Boeing will start final assembly on 11 aircraft this month including 5 on the main Everett line.  Boeing is planning, later this year, to reduce 787 production on the surge assembly line (in 40-24) by 2 airplanes and allocate one each to the main lines in Everett and North Charleston.  This should take place around October.

Just recently Boeing started final assembly on the first 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines which should be delivered around May.  Another interesting development was a reallocation of 787-8 L/N 339. Initially this aircraft was going to go to Air India as ZA251 and would have been the carrier's 22nd 787-8.  This aircraft has been reallocated to American Airlines as ZA827 and will be the airlines' 11th 787 when it's delivered around September.  Thus American will take 13 not 12 787s while Air India will take 3 not 4 787s this year.  This reallocation lends strong evidence that Boeing and Air India maybe close to an agreement whereby Air India will take their remaining 787 orders (6 in total) as 787-9s.  A formal announcement has yet to be made but it appears to be close.  Air India does have financing in place for the remaining two deliveries.  One is to occur this month and the last will occur in June.

Flight Testing and Deliveries

Production flight testing seems to have slowed down during the month.  While 10 airplanes have been in various stages of flight testing Boeing does appear to be aiming for a large number of deliveries this month.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787s to Scoot and Virgin Atlantic but looks to try and deliver 13 more 787s this month for a total of 15.  I think a more realistic number will be 12 more deliveries by the end of March.  To complicate matters, I'm still wondering at the slow pace of deliveries to American Airlines.  The carriers' 3rd 787 made a trip to Victorville, Ca., a trip that the airlines' first 2 787s didn't conduct.  I can only speculate the reason but in the past Boeing has sent aircraft down to Victorville for 1) storage, 2) IFE/Seat/BFE installation, or 3) flight testing.  I think we can rule out 3 which leave only the first two.  I have no indication which one it is.  Additionally, there are three other 787s for American Airlines sitting on the tarmac at Everett though two are recent roll outs and have yet to be painted the third is painted and has been outside for quite sometime yet no B-1 flight has been conducted.

The 787 program is nearing 250 (249 delivered thus far) deliveries and should have delivered 25% of the total current 787 orders by the end of April.

Lastly, there has been a lot of questions (and confusion of costs related to the 787 program, namely deferred production costs and carry-loss forward and how it relates to the break even on the program. Vero Venia put together this great post describing it in great detail and I recommend the read.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Month End Review - February 2015

The 787 program ended the second month of 2015 in strong fashion as Boeing delivered 12 787's to customers.

February makes to first time this year where deliveries exceeded the number of 787s rolled out of Boeing's assembly halls in North Charleston and Everett.

The 787 efficiency ratio (as measured by taking the 787 deliveries divided by 787 rollout) was 0.83.  This number was driven by Everett delivering 9 787's (including 1 787 built in Everett but delivered from Charleston) while rolling out 7 from both the main line and the surge line. Everett had an efficiency of 0.78 while North Charleston delivered 3 aircraft and rolled out 3.

Boeing has now delivered 247 787s since program deliveries started in September, 2011. Thus far in 2015 Boeing has delivered 19 including 6 787-9 and 13 787-8.  What is more interesting is that Boeing has delivered almost 50% of the contracted 787-8 firm orders through this month.

As I mentioned in previous posts, Boeing is looking to try and deliver more than 135 787s this year but they would need to deliver at a rate of 11.5 787s per month.  January was not a good month for deliveries and they were on target in February which means they would have to attempt to deliver around 15 to 16 jets in March.  This is a pretty tall order but if that is a goal then Boeing needs to increase the tempo of pre-delivery ground and flight testing.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 new order development efforts gaining traction at Boeing

Drumming up new orders for the 787 seems to be improving.

Yesterday Bloomberg news reported that Boeing was in talks with Ethiopian to purchase 8 787-8 all of which would come from the stock of existing 787s already assembled and parked on Everett's Runway 11/29 or at the EMC otherwise known as the "Terrible Teens."

This is addition to the two terrible teens that Boeing has firmly sold to Air Austral the Reunion based vacation airline news of which I broke last week.  Boeing sold them LN 15 and LN 22.  The latter was to be delivered later this year but it now appears it will be delivered in May of 2016 while LN 15 will be delivered around October of the same year.

Getting 10 of these airplanes (out of 12) will be a huge boost to Boeing in reducing their inventory while the airlines will still be getting good fuel efficient aircraft at a fraction of their worth.

787s orders are not done as ANA still has to firm up 3 787-10 that they intend to take and QANTAS, who reported excellent earning today, are looking to firm 50 787 options that they hold for delivery starting later this decade.  Turkish Airlines is also expected to place an order for either the 787 or A350 this year which can be significant while Emirates  looks to choose between the 787-10 and the A350-900 possibly around spring to summer time.

Boeing is planning to increase production to 12 airplanes next year.  This increase is expected to meet not just new orders but conversions of purchase rights and options into firm orders by existing customers.  The options and rights need to be exercised by a particular date and with the existing firm order pipeline being filled, attention will now turned to the additional orders from existing clients.

787 February 2015 Mid Month Production and Delivery Report

A little more than halfway through February and Boeing has been producing 787s at the expected rate but  delivering aircraft to customers at a snails pace.  Through today, Feb. 17th Boeing has delivered 3 787s to customers.  They have started final assembly on 6 aircraft and rolled out another 5.

One bright spot is that Boeing is not sending the newly rolled out aircraft to the EMC which indicates that traveled work is less of an issue. Another bright spot is final assembly times.  These are trending downward with 787s from Everett now taking about 31 to 33 days for final assembly from 42 to 47 days while Charleston built 787s are at around 42 to 45 days down from 51 to 59 days.  Clearly the aircraft are coming out more complete and both Everett and North Charleston facilities are now getting more comfortable with the production process ahead of the planned increase to 12/month next year.

However, the trouble still lies in the delivery rate.  With only 10 aircraft delivered in 2015 it is way to low even for Boeing to meet its guidance of 120+ 787 deliveries.  Granted there are the usual delays because certain airlines continue to have issues like Qatar Airways that has 2 scheduled for delivery or Air India with their typical incompetent management trying to find financing for the delivery of a single aircraft.  It does appear that the bulk of 787 deliveries will again occur within the last week of the month.  I'll report back in early March to see how they did.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Air Austral orders 2 "Terrible Teen" 787-8

According to sources, Boring will deliver LN 15 and LN 22 to Air Austral, the French holiday carrier.  Air Austral had ordered but did not take delivery of 777-300ER.  It now appears that Air Austral switched the order for the 787-8. It appears they will take delivery on LN 22 this year and LN 15 next year.

This may be the unidentified order for two 787s that Boeing posted on their Order and Delivery website on Feb. 12th though I'm still trying to confirm this.

787 Line 11 first flight imminent

According to sources, ZA841 (LN 11, N507BJ) which is tentatively scheduled to be delivered to Korean Air Lines in April will attempt its first flight on Feb. 13th.  After this flight the aircraft will go into the paint hangar for about 3 weeks.

It would be the first of the "terrible teens" to have a fly after spending extensive time in storage and re-work.  It is rumored that it will be used by Korean Air Lines as a South Korean government VIP transport.

787 Production Looks to be improving

Analysis of 787 final assembly trends at Boeing's Everett plant seems to point to an improvement in the amount of traveled work that is reaching Everett.  Looking at the movements of recently completed 787s at Everett, I've noticed that, with the exceptions of 787s for Etihad and American Airlines, Boeing hasn't been sending rolled out 787s to the Everett Modification Center to finish assembly tasks that were delayed due to traveled work.

The last current production 787 that visited the EMC was ZA199 (LN 271, JA840J) for Japan Airlines which was there until early February.  Since then there have been 6 787s that have been rolled out to the 40-51 ramp but none have made the trip to the EMC though some have spent some time on the ramp outside the 40-51 building to finish minor assembly activities.  Currently, the only 787s that are at the EMC are 3 early build aircraft, the 3 787-9 flight test aircraft and one 787-8 for American Airlines.

With regards to American Airlines and Etihad, it seems that for the aircraft for those two carriers will continue to go to the EMC because of delays in delivering the premium seats from Zodiac until the production issues are smoothed out.  This is pretty good news for the 787 in terms of the production costs which Boeing has been wrestling with since the start of production.  It does not mean the end of traveled work as Boeing expects that to continue.  Many aircraft programs have some amount of traveled work but the 787 issues have been very painful, very public and very plentiful.  They will continue to have some amount of traveled work but it will eventually get to a point where the work can be completed in final assembly as opposed to being rolled out to the 40-51 ramp to be finished.

As always, I'll keep track of this trend but continued reduction of traveled work to a point where the airplanes no longer have to go to the EMC is very good news to the program.

January 2015 787 Delivery and Production Report

Boeing had a disappointing month as far as 787 deliveries goes.  Internally, Boeing is looking at 138 deliveries (publicly they gave their guidance as 124-127) which translates to 11.5 deliveries per month in 2015.  In January Boeing delivered only 7 787 to customers, far fewer than what is needed.  Annualized this would represent only 84 deliveries.  It is the beginning of the new year and Boeing has been a bit slow to ramp up activities after the Holiday season but they will need to make a much stronger showing in February and March.  The efficiency ratio was 1.43 which is way too high as deliveries did not match the number of aircraft rolled out.

The company did roll out 10 787s from it's 3 final assembly lines and started final assembly on a further 11 787 air frames to the flightlines though a number of them had to go the EMC.

According to the most latest information that I have, there are 15 787s tentatively scheduled for delivery in February including a number that were to be delivered in January.  It is highly doubtful that Boeing will deliver this number of 787s and I believe that in the best case scenario, they will deliver 11 to 13. Up to 6 of these deliveries would be the 787-9 including LAN's first -9 (via lease from AerCap).

Production rate is holding steady and it has taken Boeing an average of 102 days to build, test and deliver 787s (based on January deliveries not including outliers) last month.  Boeing needed an average of 5 test flights per delivered aircraft to complete the delivery process.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing to curtail 787 surge line final assembly activities later this fall

According to analysis of final assembly activities for the 787, Boeing is planning to shift final assembly of some 787s currently being built on the surge line (in 40-24) to the main final assembly line in Everett and the North Charleston line.  Currently, Boeing assembling 4 787s/month on the main line in 40-26, 3/month on the surge line in 40-24 and 3/month on the North Charleston line in 88-30.

Around October, Boeing will reduce the number of 787 airplanes assembled on the surge line by 2 aircraft/month and reallocate 1/month each to 40-26 and the North Charleston line.  40-26 will assemble 5/month and North Charleston will assemble 4/month while the surge will still assemble 1/month.  It has been Boeing's plan to use the surge line as a temporary line while they got the North Charleston line up and running and increasing the production rate from 3/month to 10/month.

I believe Boeing has enough confidence in the North Charleston facility to to increase its production rate early.  Boeing is supposed to increase the North Charleston rate to 5/month in 2016 but it appears this may happen sooner than expected.  I do believe that in 2016 Boeing will shut down the 787 surge line reallocate the lone aircraft on that line to 40-26 and then when they ready to up the rate to 12/month, assign 1 each to 40-26 and 88-30.

The surge line is planned to be used for final assembly of the initial batch of 777X.

New 787 Tables for All Things 787

I created two new tables for readers to get a better sense of which customers and operators are getting their 787 from Everett and North Charleston.

The first one is 787 Build Location By Operator and the second is 787 Build Location By Customer.

You can bookmark these links as I'll be updating them as frequently as I get updates.

Boeing give 787 delivery guidance for 2015

Boeing released its 2014 financial results and while the company reported record earnings as well as higher 787 deliveries, it also reported higher deferred production cost (the gap of actual cost of production of each aircraft vs. the average cost over the accounting block which at this moment is 1,300 aircraft) had increased by almost $1bn over the 4th quarter to $26.149bn up from $25.189bn.  Year over year increase in deferred production costs was $4.5bn, an increase of almost 21% year over year!  Mush of this increase was due to increasing the inventory of parts as well as maintaining high employment levels within the 787 program.

Boeing’s 787 delivery guidance was reported by CFO Greg Smith as the annual production rate plus 3 to 4 early build aircraft.  This would mean a total delivery guidance of 123-124 787s for 2015.

However, one question that was not asked if this delivery guidance included the 3 787-9s that were used for flight testing and certification purposes. The big question is that do they consider the 3 787-9 that were used for the certification program last year as early build? If so, then are the only "early build" deliveries would be the 787-9s that are earmarked for customers this year?  If not then Boeing can deliver the 120 regular production + 3 787-9 from test flight + 3-4 early deliveries (terrible teens) which would add to 127 deliveries.  2 out of the 3 787-9 test airplanes are at the EMC being bought up to certification standards for delivery to Air New Zealand while the third is parked on a runaway at Everett. 

Boeing expect that the 787 program should become cash positive this year meaning that revenue for each delivered 787 will exceed the cost of production though the program as a whole will still be running at a loss.  Additionally, Boeing expect deferred production cost to moderately increase this year before declining next year when the 787 rate goes to 12 from 10.  Obviously getting a handle on production costs will include renegotiating (read: squeezing) the supply base as well as lowering labor costs within the program.  Greg Smith reported during the earnings call that 787-9 production costs fell 20% from the first delivered aircraft and 30% for the last 175 delivered 787-8 airplanes.

In other news it looks like Air Force One will continue to be a Boeing product.  The Air Force is going to negotiate for the delivery of three 747-8 air frames to replace the current 747-200 that have been in service for over 20 years but are dated.  This will be a non competitive acquisition but mission equipment and furnishing will be competitively sourced. The only question that remains is will they acquire a 747-8I or 747-8F?

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

American Airlines takes delivery of first 787-8 2 months late

American Airline formally too delivery of its first 787-8 today in Everett. The aircraft, ZA817 (LN 242, N800AN), will fly away for Dallas Ft. Worth tomorrow where it will be used for training before being pressed into service on AA's domestic routes initially in the 2nd quarter followed by international service later in the year. I expect that AA will take delivery of 11 more this year with the next delivery in February.

ZA817 was supposed to be delivered in November, 2014 but issues with seats took longer than expected due to issues with the seat manufacturer.

Even now AA 787s pulled out of final assembly spend some time at the Everett Modification Center (EMC) before heading to the flightline to continue the normal pre-delivery flow.

It is hoped that the seat issue will start to get resolved before it has a detrimental effect on future 787-8 deliveries to American Air.

787 Mid month report - January, 2015

Mid way through the 1st month of 2015, Boeing is setting it self up to deliver 10 787s. On the surface that may look like a good number especially when compared to January, 2014. However because several 787s that were supposed to be delivered late last year had been rescheduled to this month, there are expectations the deliveries in January were going to be higher than 10.  Earlier information that was received indicated 12 deliveries in January but now those deliveries were pushed to later in the first quarter.  Boeing needs to deliver a minimum of 11.5 787s per month for 2015 if it is to achieve its internal goal of delivering 138 787s.  As I had said in a previous post, I doubt that Boeing will be able to deliver 138 787s and the final number will most likely be between 125 to 130.

Thus far there are about 5 aircraft that are ready for delivery but there are also 1 more that need to conduct its B-1 flight which is a 787-9 for Virgin Atlantic and a 4 others that have yet to conduct their C-1 flights.  With 12 days left in the month it is possible for Boeing to all these aircraft tested and delivered but it will be cutting it close.  I do expect the first 787 deliveries of 2015 to start this coming week, thus again Boeing is making all its 787 deliveries in the last half of the month.

The customers that will be be receiving their first 787s include American Airlines and Scoot while AerCap (LAN) will be taking its first 787-9.

Line Number	Variable Number	Serial Number	Registration	787 Model	Customer	Operator	Delivery Date
240	ZB127	37112	9V-OJA	787-9	Scoot Pte Ltd	Scoot Pte Ltd	1/23/2015
241	ZA817	40618	N800AN	787-8	American Airlines	American Airlines	1/22/2015
250	ZA248	36291	VT-ANT	787-8	Air India	Air India	1/30/2015
252	ZA198	34853	JA839J	787-8	Japan Airlines	Japan Airlines	1/22/2015
254	ZA616	35263	C-GHQQ	787-8	Air Canada	Air Canada	1/30/2015
256	ZB029	37968	G-VOOH	787-9	Virgin Atlantic Airways	Virgin Atlantic Airways	1/30/2015
257	ZA222	36235	VH-VKI	787-8	QANTAS	Jetstar	1/26/2015
258	ZA846	36111	ET-ASG	787-8	AerCap	Ethiopian Airlines	1/30/2015
259	ZB224	35317	CC-BGA	787-9	AerCap	LAN	1/30/2015
260	ZA323	36426	G-TUIG	787-8	TUI Travel	Thomson	1/29/2015

In terms of production Boeing is well situated to roll out 10 787s (7 from Everett and 3 form North Charleston).  They are also starting final assembly on 10 787s this month with the same number as roll outs from each final assembly locations.

Interestingly, Boeing is looking to deliver 3 787-9 this month as well as roll out 3 and start final assembly of 3 787-9s this month.  I'll keep an eye on this but it does seem that for now, Boeing is going to keep the rate on the 787-9 at 3/month

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

Boeing South Carolina head Jack Jones announces retirement.

The head of Boeing's North Charleston' plant, Jack Jones announced his retirement to the Boeing South Carolina employees in an email message.  In it he intends to leave the company in May and will be on hand during the next few months to transition his responsibilities to incoming BSC head Beverly Wyse.  Currently Beverly Wyse is VP and general manager of Boeing 737 program and was previously the VP and general manger of the 767 program at Boeing.

Here is Beverly Wyse's bio from Boeing:

Beverly Wyse was named vice president and general manager of the 737
program in January 2010. In this position she is responsible for the design,
development, certification, production and delivery of the Boeing Next-Generation 737
airplane family. Wyse also is responsible for maintaining customer relationships and for
the safety and security of employees at the Renton, Wash., plant as well as its property
and equipment. 

Before this assignment, Wyse was vice president and general manager of the
767 program for more than three years. Wyse was responsible for all aspects of the 767
program as well as the Boeing Commercial Airplanes role in the competition for the U.S.
Air Force KC-X tanker program. 

Wyse previously was director of Strategy and Business Development for
Connexion by Boeing. In that assignment, she was responsible for coordinating the
development of the company’s business strategy and for identifying and pursuing new
market segments to expand the reach of the Connexion system. 

Wyse joined Connexion in August 2002 as director of Aircraft Deployment and
Installation, where she led a team responsible for the design and certification of the
Connexion service for installation aboard aircraft. 

Before joining Connexion, Wyse was director of program management for
the 757 program. She was responsible for all aspects of business operations and
program and project management. Before that, she served as a senior manager for
the Boeing twin-aisle airplane program management office. Wyse was responsible
for identifying which interior features would be offered to airline customers, for
delivery of interior systems and for project management of all new product
development. 

Wyse has a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering and a master’s degree
in business administration, both from the University of Washington in Seattle. She
graduated from the Boeing Executive Development Program in 2000.

Here is Jack Jones' email to the Boeing South Carolina employees:

Goodbye and Thank You
Today Pat Shanahan announced some leadership changes at the BCA Airplane Programs level. One of those included my decision to retire in May of this year.
 This was a bittersweet decision for me. I’m overjoyed to be able to spend more time with my wife, Karen, who retired from Boeing just last year, and do the things that we’ve talked many years of being able to do when we hit this stage in our lives. The other part of me is saddened to be leaving such an incredibly well-respected, successful corporation – one that has offered me amazing career opportunities in an industry that has been a passion of mine since early adulthood. 
 Throughout my 35-year career I have had the privilege of working on some of Boeing’s most iconic and challenging programs. The Boeing South Carolina assignment certainly qualifies as one of those programs, and has been one of the more challenging assignments I’ve had. However, thanks to you and this remarkable Boeing South Carolina team, and our unprecedented accomplishments in a relatively short period of time, I will leave with this being my most rewarding and satisfying assignment.
 Since my first day here in 2011, I’ve seen many positive changes, not only in production, quality and efficiencies, but in our teammates. Everyone at BSC is learning and growing, and doing remarkable things – turning dreams into reality at a site that just over five short years ago was two small suppliers surrounded by a lot of open land. Now look at BSC today! It’s truly amazing and each and every one of you is to thank for that.
                                  
Retirement was a hard decision for me, especially at a time when BSC is operating at an all-time high, firing on all cylinders, and proving to our early skeptics that we are truly Boeing Strong.  However my decision was certainly made easier knowing I was leaving it in the hands of a team I know well, and will never stop making this site the world class facility it is or ever retreat when faced with adversity. In other words … You Guys Rock!
 I know that you’ll continue to provide the same world-class support and attitudes to Beverly as she transitions to BSC’s new site leader over the coming months. I’ll be working closely with Bev from now until May and I have no doubt that with her long and successful history with our company and our products, combined with your talent, professionalism, and dedication, BSC’s future remains extremely bright and is in very capable hands.
 Again, thank you for this remarkable experience. I’ll be making rounds across the site with Bev over the coming months, and hope to see many of you face-to-face and shake your hands before my official exit in May.
 Jack