Thursday, June 26, 2014

Boeing South Carolina achieves 3/month 787 production rate.

Boeing revealed to its employees yesterday that the South Carolina plant has achieved the planned 787 production rate of 3 airplanes/month when ZA660 (LN 224, 5Y-KZF) entered into position 0 on the final assembly line in plant 88-30 on June 24th.  This aircraft is destined for Kenya Airways and should deliver around September of this year.  I am assuming that Everett will slow down to 7/month given the rate change.  This means that Charleston should load a new 787 every 10 days while Everett will load a 787 every 8.6 days for each line (40-26 and 40-24).

This was an important milestone for this plant especially in light of a muckraking report in a certain Seattle newspaper this past week. 

Boeing managers hope to complete a 787 from loading into the first position to roll out in about 38 days at the new rate.  Prior to the step up in rate, the South Carolina plant was building a 787 in about 46 days and a year ago it was at 70 days. 

The plant will also start building its first 787-9 when ZB170 (LN 269) is loaded into position sometime this fall.  The aircraft will go to United Airlines sometime in March of 2015.
 
The signs of progress at Boeing South Carolina counters a false belief that the plant and its workers are not up to the challenge of building the 787 in sufficient quantities and quality that would justify the investment that was and is continuing to be made by the company.  As recently as this past week a newspaper report slammed the Boeing South Carolina workers and cast doubt on their ability to make the 787 especially in light of the bonuses that were just paid out to them for reducing the JBS (jobs behind schedule) or other wise known as travelled work. It is my understanding that the JBS number as tracked by Boeing is remaining at a flat rate.  It does appear that some people in the media are looking to highlight every mistake and incident in order to sell newspapers rather than looking at the whole story in proper context.

I attempt to put some context to the 787 production story in the form of a table that I've put together comparing number of 787s that have entered final assembly, finished final assembly and have been delivered.  The table looks at these attributes for Everett, Charleston as well as the total for both plants.

Looking at the table one can see that both plants are producing at their respective assigned rates in terms of loadings and roll outs.  We should ignore January and February as both plants were essentially ramping back up after the 2013 holidays as is  evident from the tables with the low number of loadings, rolls outs, and deliveries.  However starting in March Boeing South Carolina loaded, on average, 2.75 aircraft per month, rolled out an average of 3.25 aircraft per month and delivered an average of 2.5 aircraft per month.  This is through June 25th and I do expect at least one more delivery from North Charleston this month.

Everett has a much higher work load but during the same period the plant has loaded an average of 8 airplanes per month, rolled out an average of 8 airplanes per month and has delivered and average of 6 airplanes per month.  To look at it a different way, I take the average roll outs divided by the average deliveries in order to gauge how efficient each plant is in building and delivering 787s and this is what I have from March through June 25th:

Everett = 8/6 = 1.33
Charleston = 3.25/2.5 = 1.3

The lower the number the more efficient the plant is in building and delivering aircraft.  This shows that Charleston looks to be slightly more efficient in delivering the 787.  Please note that this is a little incomplete as we have to complete the month of June and there is at least one more 787 line move in Everett to come as well as more deliveries from each location.  Additionally, this tables ignores where the aircraft was delivered from, i.e. Charleston built aircraft for Qatar but delivered from Everett was a delivery from Charleston.
 
 
 


 










 


Friday, June 20, 2014

Revised June Delivery Estimate For 787

In my previous post, I estimated that Boeing could deliver about 14 787s in June.  New information now leads me to revise that estimate upwards to as many as 16 though it is quite possible that some of these deliveries can spill over into July for delivery.  They have already delivered 8 thus far in June.


Obviously with the quarter end coming up, Boeing wants to book as many deliveries and income as possible, thus this is the rationale for the push to deliver as many as possible.


Given the new information here is a list of aircraft that I believe can be delivered in the next 10 days:


ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV)
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) - this plane should deliver at the end of the month but expect it to stay in Everett until July 10th for crew training.
ZA219 (LN 175, VK-VKF) - this plane also should deliver at the end of the month but the delivery may spill over to July.
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) - should deliver around 6/24.
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) - should also deliver around 6/24.
ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG) - this aircraft still needs to conduct its first flight but is tentatively scheduled to be delivered at the end of this month.
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA)  - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.
ZA321 (LN 191, G-TUIE) - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.


If Boeing can deliver all 8 then they would have achieved 50 787 deliveries in the first 6 months of 2014 and will have put themselves in a good position to deliver 60 to 70 more in the second half of the year.
 










 


Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Boeing increases 787 production flight testing

Over the past few weeks, Boeing has been aggressively flying production 787s on Boeing and customer flight tests.  In June, Boeing has conducted seven B-1 flights on the production 787s and I do think that they can fly at least 4 more before the end of the month. This should include one aircraft for British Airways, ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG), a BBJ for the Saudi Ministry of Finance, ZA779 (LN 193, HZ-MF8), one for United Airlines, ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) which will be used for 787-9/GEnX F&R/ETOPs testing and one for Qatar Airways, ZA474 (LN 188, A7-BCO).  ZA456 did file a flight plan on June 17th but the aircraft did not fly).


There was a large up tick in flight activity during the last week or so which leads me to believe the Boeing is going for an all out push to deliver around 14 787s this month.  They have already delivered 6 this month including the last 787 for China Southern Airlines from their order of 10 aircraft.




As for deliveries for the rest of this month, in my opinion this is the aircraft I see being delivered in the next 12 days:


ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV) for Ethiopian
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) for Air New Zealand (1st 787-9 delivery)
ZA473 (LN 176, A7-BCN) for Qatar Airways
ZA580 (LN 183, EI-LNG) for ILFC/Norwegian
ZA656 (LN 184, 5Y-KZB) for Kenya Airways
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) for LAN
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) for United Airlines
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA) for ILFC/Thai (may not deliver until July)


Boeing does need to deliver many of these planes as ramp space is quickly being filled at both Everett and Charleston. There are about 30 planes that are outside on the flightlines, paint hangars and other spots at the two assembly locations but if the current pace of flight activity continues then much of that ramp space should be cleared over the next couple of weeks and occupied by aircraft that will be coming out of final assembly.  It does seem that Boeing has a pretty good handle on the assembly aspect but the build quality still has to improve a bit in order to avoid inventories from creeping higher again. 


Lastly, one additional note to my previous post regarding the 787-9.  The FAA has certified this aircraft for ETOPS 330 thus fulfilling Boeing's promise to Air New Zealand to deliver the ETOPS certified aircraft.



 










 


Monday, June 16, 2014

FAA and EASA certifies the 787-9

Boeing announced this morning that the FAA and EASA has certified the 787-9 clearing the way for the first delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand.  The first aircraft for the carrier is already undergoing production flight tests and should deliver in about 2 weeks.


Air New Zealand has ordered the Rolls Royce powered aircraft.  Boeing has yet to start F&R/ETOPs testing on the GE powered version of the aircraft but that should start this month.  I still believe that Boeing should deliver the first GE powered 787-9 to United Airlines late next month.


There has been some questions if the FAA would grant the Amended Type certificate to Boeing due to two separate issues: 1) a need to re-design a capacitor in the RAT and 2) an altitude select knob on the Mode Control Panel (MCP) that doesn't have enough torque and can lead to an error in setting attitude as directed by ATC.  Boeing has asked for a time limited exemptions from these two issues and apparently the FAA and EASA has agreed.  Flightglobal has an a detailed explanation of the issues in an article here.


I do anticipate that Boeing will be able to deliver 12 787-9 this year as follows:


Air New Zealand - 3
ANA - 2
Etihad Airways - 2
Scoot - 1
United Airlines - 2
Virgin Atlantic - 2


Here's Boeing Press Release announcing the award of the Amended Type Certificate:


Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Earns FAA, EASA Certification

Newest commercial airplane nears delivery on track



EVERETT, Wash., June 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787-9 Dreamliner has been certified by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) for commercial service. Boeing is now in the final stages of preparing for the first 787-9 delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand.

"Certification is the culmination of years of hard work and a rigorous flight-test program that started with the 787-9's first flight last September," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "With this validation that the airplane is ready for commercial operations, Boeing along with our airline and leasing customers now look forward to introducing the newest member of the Dreamliner family to passengers around the world."

To earn certification for the 787-9, Boeing undertook a comprehensive test program with five airplanes and more than 1,500 hours of flight testing, plus ground and laboratory testing. Following the rigorous and thorough certification process, the FAA and EASA each granted Boeing an Amended Type Certificate for the 787-9, certifying that the design complies with aviation regulations and is safe and reliable.

"Throughout 787-9 development, the dedication and discipline of our entire global team drove outstanding performance," said Mark Jenks, vice president, 787 Airplane Development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "From the start of assembly last spring to a flawless first flight and now our on-time certification, we thank everyone on the Boeing and partner team as well as our customers for making 787-9 development so successful."

The FAA also has granted Boeing an Amended Production Certificate, validating that the Boeing production system can produce 787-9s that conform to the design. EASA accepts FAA oversight of Boeing production certificates, just as the FAA accepts EASA oversight of European manufacturers' production certificates.

The new 787-9 Dreamliner will complement and extend the super-efficient 787 family. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters) over the 787-8, the 787-9 will fly more passengers and more cargo farther with the same exceptional environmental performance — 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering passengers features such as large windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

Twenty-six customers around the world have ordered 413 787-9s, accounting for 40 percent of all 787 orders.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

787 Production Update - June 2014


Thus far through the end of May Boeing has delivered 33 787s.  With 7 months to go in the year, Boeing needs to ramp up the delivery rate if it is to deliver 110 787s by the end of the year.  That means they have to deliver 77 aircraft in the last 7 months...11/month delivery rate.


May Review
 
May was a disappointing month.  I was expecting at least 10 deliveries and Boeing managed 7. If the theme sounds familiar it's because it is.  There is an expectations that Boeing delivery rate will match the 787 build rate which currently is at 10/month though the airplanes that have emerged from final assembly still have minor travelled work that needs to be completed.  An interesting side to the delivery story for May though.  Boeing, it seems had delivered 2 787s to Air India last month while the official tally on Boeing's Order and Delivery website show that they delivered 1 to the carrier.  Sources have confirmed to me that Boeing did indeed make contractual delivery of ZA232 (LN 28, VT-ANC) though this aircraft still remains in Charleston.  The reason for this is still unknown.
 
June Preview
 
Boeing has ramped up 787 flight activity significantly and has delivered 4 787s through the first 10 days of June.  Some of these deliveries were slated for May but had rolled into June.  Boeing will need to deliver at least 7 more 787s which, at least for now, looks like they can accomplish easily.  They currently have 11 787s that are in production testing or that are ready for delivery.  I do think that 8 to 9 of those can be delivered this month.  Boeing should deliver the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand on June 30th pending a decision by the FAA (see below).  ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) has been flying lately and should be ready for delivery in the next couple of weeks.  Boeing will probably run a few more flight than they typically do in order to work out all the bugs and make sure that the aircraft has sufficient maturity to enter airline service.
 
787-9
 
Flightglobal revealed that Boeing is asking the FAA for a waiver in order to deliver the 787-9. The request is related to two items that are not compliant with the certification standards that Boeing and the FAA agreed to concerning the 787-9.  Boeing is scheduled to deliver ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE), the first 787-9, to Air New Zealand on June 30th.  The two issues are 1) a capacitor in the ram Air turbine (RAT) that failed during a flight test.  This capacitor needs to be redesign and certified for use on the aircraft.  The second issues relates to a dial on a control panel in the cockpit of the aircraft.  The dial is altitude select knob that is used in the vertical flight mode.  The dial can be inadvertently rotate 1 or 2 stops beyond the desired setting if the pilot just presses the knob and thus violate altitude range set by the ATC.  There is a lack of sufficient torque that is causing this issue.  This will be watched closely to see what the FAA will do but it is concerning especially since the 787-9 flight testing has gone so well.  Boeing doesn't want to deliver this aircraft late even by a few weeks let alone a few months.
 
Most of the 787-9 testing appears to have been completed though Boeing still has to undertake F&R/ETOPs flight testing using an production aircraft equipped with the GE  GEnX-1B engines.  I anticipate that ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) should take to the air within the next 10 to 14 days and should fly a comparable number of hours as ZB197 (LN146, JA830A).
 
Charleston Production Ramp Up
 
Boeing is preparing to ramp up the 787 production at Charleston to 3/month from the current 2.  This switch should take place in early to mid July.  Boeing is currently loading a 787 into Position 1A every 12 to 13 days. They will need to load one every 10 days but the number of available assembly spots to conduct assembly activities has been reduced to 6 from 8 as two positions are undergoing construction (Position 1B and Position 6).
 
ETOPS 330
 
Boeing did get some good news from the FAA last month when the approved the 787-8 for ETOPS 330.  This means the 787-8 can operate from an airport that is no further than five and half hours flying time in case of an emergency.  This means the carriers can fly more direct and fuel efficient routes, especially over the Pacific and fully take advantage of the 787s capabilities.  It is now up to the local civil aviation regulators to approve or deny the airlines that are under their oversight to fly the 787 under ETOPS 330.  The 787-9 will not receive this certification until much later but it will probably be Boeing's next major certification as Air New Zealand is eager to have the aircraft certified for ETOPS 330.  I do not know when Boeing plans to achieve ETOPS 330 certification for the 787-9.
 










 


Friday, May 23, 2014

787 Production Update - May 2014

Boeing is progressing well to deliver 10 787s this month.  Today (May 23rd), Boeing delivered Air India's 14th Dreamliner, moving them more than half way to completing the carriers 27 aircraft order.  This is also probably one of the last early build airplanes that will be delivered for a few months (ZA232, LN 28, VT-ANC). They have delivered 5 787s thus far in May.

Rumor has it that Boeing will be looking to deliver anywhere from 2 to 4 more early build 787s including one to Korean Air.  Late last year, Korean Air placed an order for a single 787-8, which is unusual as they have an order for 10 787-9.  This order was for a single early build 787-8.  Why they bought only one is still a mystery given their extensive route network.  It is entirely possible that this aircraft will be solely used on Korean's domestic network.

For the rest of month, Boeing should be able to deliver 5 more this month. I had previously mentioned that ANA should get one delivered this month but now it will be delivered in June. This will also include the first 787-9 delivered to Air New Zealand on June 30th.

Boeing should deliver to Air India, Ethiopian, British Airways, Norwegian (ILFC), and Hainan.  Next month should see the same number of deliveries as this month.  It appears that Boeing will be looking to try to deliver more than the 110 787s that they have stated in their guidance.the number could be closer 120 but it will all depend on production execution.  Additionally 12 of these aircraft should be 787-9.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries



 






Thursday, May 22, 2014

Boeing talks 787 during Investors Conference

During yesterday's Investor's Day conference, Boeing addressed the 787 and the ongoing issues still facing that program.  While the tone was upbeat, the theme was risk and cost reduction throughout the 787 program. Boeing stated that they are continuing to de-risk the 787 program because of the maturity and stabilization of the production system.  However, my concern with that it is not only the stabilization of the production system that needs to occur but improvement in build quality of the 787.  Currently it appears that it takes Boeing about 100 to 110 days from the start of final assembly to delivery of the 787 though there are outliers both under 100 days and over 110 days.  While I do not have any comparable numbers to another program like the 777 it is, without a doubt, crucial that this metric is going to be key to improving efficiencies, de-risking the program and improving margins that Boeing is looking to accomplish with the 787.  Boeing CFO, Greg Smith, stated that the 787-8 has improved unit cost by 15% over the last one year and final assembly flow time improved by 10% during the same period.  The 787-9 has seen both unit cost and flow time improve by 30% since the first unit entered final assembly last year.  So it does appear the final assembly flow time is coming down but again build quality is still going to be important going forward and Boeing has not addressed.


During the conference Jim McNerney addressed the need to do a 757 replacement and he gave a clear indication that the replacement will not be a clean sheet design but a using one of the current platforms that Boeing has designing a derivative to fulfill that need.  He did specifically mention the 787 as one of the those platforms (in addition to the 737).


Boeing is also looking to leverage the highly successful development of the 787-9 for the 787-10.  Approximately 90% of the 787-10 will share commonality with the 787-9 thus greatly reducing the development cost of that aircraft.


In terms of service reliability, Boeing states that they are hitting around 98 to 98.5 but want to be well into the 99% range (99.5%) but are not there yet.  They haven't stated on how they're going to get there and the reliability rate really in unchanged from the last reported rate which Boeing gave during their 1st quarter earning report.


On the production front, Boeing is about to increase the rate at Charleston from 2/month to 3/month.  This rate break should occur around early to mid July and we would also see a commensurate reduction in the rate at Everett from 8/month to 7/month.  Boeing is confident that they can now do this as the production system is stable despite the issues with the mid-body fuselage build in 88-20.


Charleston will also start assembling the 787-9 starting around November of December for delivery in the first quarter of 2015.  As for the remainder of the year see my spreadsheets for the 2014 78 delivery projections.  I'm still agreeing with Boeing's guidance for 110.  I believe 11 of these will be 787-9s.


Lastly, it appears that Boeing may have completed F&R/ETOPs testing for the Rolls Royce powered 787-9.  ZA197 (LN 146, JA830A) flew back to Everett last night and it may have to go through a short period of re-work before being delivered to ANA.  Air New Zealand should get the first one around late June to early July with United expected to receive their first 787-9 in mid to late July.  787-9 flights have slowed noticeably in the last week so I believe that Boeing is close to if not finished with flight testing.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries



 






Monday, May 19, 2014

May 787 deliveries still slow half way through the month

With less than 2 weeks remaining in the month, Boeing has delivered only 3 787s to customers including the 1st to Air Canada.  The total seems anemic but Boeing has been known to finish the month strong by delivering 78s in the last 7 to 10 days of the month.  I don't think this month will be an exception but the company won't be able to deliver 12 aircraft that I predicted earlier.  I do see them delivering 10 in May including the ones that have already been delivered.

Here's my revised delivery projections:

Air India - 2 (ZA232, ZA244)
ANA - 1 (ZA136)
British Airways - 1 (ZA455)
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 (ZA265)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (ZA437)
ILFC/Norwegian - 1 (ZA579)

This number is still 1 short (actually .5 airplanes short) of what Boeing needs to deliver for the remainder of the year if they need to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries.

While there has been a number of B-1 flights earlier this month, Boeing still has to increase the tempo in order to prepare for June deliveries.

To date Boeing has delivered 143 total 787s, 29 in 2014 and 3 thus far in May.

Lastly, ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) flew back to Everett today from Boeing Field.  It seems that he flight testing it was conducting to certify software changes on a production standard aircraft is complete.  The aircraft will probably be cleaned up and prepared for customer test flights be fore being delivered to Hainan.
Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 






Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Enhancements to the 787 spreadsheet

In order to enhance the information that  I present on my spreadsheet, I'm attempting to track the certain metrics to help understand how the 787 program is doing.  It all has to do with time and the amount of it that the 787 spends on being assembled, tested and finally delivered to customers.  I'm tracking the time the aircraft spends in final assembly, the time it spends in pre-flight and the amount of time in production flight tests.

Unfortunately I don't have all the information that I need for all the aircraft particularly the dates that the aircraft loads into final assembly and the date that the aircraft exits final assembly.  If there was traveled work or time needed for change incorporation, that is lumped into the pre-flight time....it's easier that way instead of trying to track when each airframe is where at a particular point in time.

If anyone has any information they can share, it is appreciated.  Please check out the spreadsheet below and you'll see which information I am missing.

Full 787 List

 

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Boeing delivers Air Canada's 1st 787

Boeing has made contractual delivery of Air Canada's first 787-8 yesterday.  The aircraft ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) will remain at Everett until May 18th when it will fly to Air Canada's base at Toronto's Pearson International Airport.
Air Canada has two more 787s that have been assembled though it appears that one of them was damaged in a forklift incident during seat loading at the EMC.  This aircraft, ZA612 (LN 174, C-GHPU) is still at the EMC though it is outside on the ramp.  ZA611 (LN 170, C-GHPT) is still on the Boeing Everett Flightline awaiting its B-1 flight.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries






 






Thursday, May 8, 2014

Boeing ends April with strong 787 deliveries but still behind planned delivery pace


What was appearing to be an anemic month for 787 deliveries was actually a strong one for the aircraft program.  I was expecting about 5 to  deliveries but Boeing finished strong with 8 deliveries, 5 on the last day of the month.  That is the good news, the bad news is that to keep pace for 110 deliveries in 2014, Boeing needed to have delivered 37 787s in the first 4 months of the year.  They have delivered 26 through April 30th. In order to hit the 110 delivery mark, Boeing will have to average 10.5 deliveries per month for the remainder of the year.  Certainly this is an attainable goal but the pace thus far hasn't really looked promising. There are a number of 787s at both Everett and Charleston that have been waiting, patiently for their B-1 flight.  Thus far there has been only 2 B-1 flights though it is early in the month.  However to keep pace with 10.5 deliveries per month, Boeing does need to conduct far more B-1 flights and get these aircraft into production flight testing.


A bit of good news is that it appears that build quality is improving as there are far fewer test flights that need to be conducted (including customer flights) before the planes are formally delivered.  In April, of the 8 planes that were delivered 6 airplanes required an average of 3.5 flights before they were delivered.  I purposely excluded the two Qatar deliveries as they are considered outliers compared to the rest of the customer base.  This certainly bodes well for the 787 delivery rate if Boeing can keep the build quality high and thus get the aircraft into customer's hands faster.


For deliveries in May, Boeing has already delivered one 787 to Ethiopian, the airlines' 6th Dreamliner.  I can see the deliveries shaking out as follows:




Air Canada - 2
Air India - 2
ANA - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 2 (1 delivered already)
Hainan - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 1




Of course, many of there deliveries are predicated on several of these aircraft starting the flight test program soon (there's only 23 days left in this month).  Already, a British Airways' 787 (ZA454, LN 173, G-ZBJE) has conducted (or is conducting at press time) its C-1 flight. The next one week will help further understand what delivery rate Boeing will achieve this month.




A Word About the 787-9


Boeing continues to execute well on the 787-9 flight test and certification program.  Last month Boeing started F&R and ETOPs testing on a production 787-9 eventually destined for ANA.  ZB197 has been flying regularly in order to have certification ready by next month and delivery of Air New Zealand's for 787-9 to be made around mid July.  Word is that because of Boeing strict disciplined approach to designing and testing this aircraft, that delivery should be made on time.  Boeing will also probably fly ZB167 (LN 181, N19951) which will conduct the same F&R/ETOPs testing though on the GE engines.  This aircraft is currently in paint and should fly by the end of this month to support 1st delivery of the GEnx-1B powered 787-9 later this year.  It is rumored that ZB167 should deliver to United in July as well.




Production


As stated in my previous post, Boeing looks to be putting the Mitsubishi wing issues behind it as at this point should not be a show stopper for deliveries.  Great progress was also made on reducing the travelled work from the Charleston mid-body fuselage plant (88-20) to point that there are no more than 150 minor JBS (jobs behind schedule) that need to be completed on the 787s coming out of final assembly.  To underscore this point, Boeing is doesn't appear to be sending 787s coming off the two lines in Everett to the EMC but instead are going to the 40-51 ramp where the remaining JBS are completed and then the aircraft is taken to paint and then to the flightline where it will be prepared to enter the flight testing program.  This is huge news and it appears the hard work has figuratively and literally paid off as the Boeing workers in Charleston will be paid a nice bonus in a few days for bringing down the JBS from about 8,000.  It will now be up to Boeing's managers to make sure that the JBS doesn't become unmanageable while the production rate steadies at 10/month.


Lastly, some of you have noticed that ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) for Hainan has been flying a lot out of Boeing Field in Seattle.  While I do not have confirmation, I suspect that this aircraft is performing flight and certification tests on the revised software for the 787 in order to reduce the number of false warnings and improve flight dispatch reliability through out the 787 fleet.  Some earlier testing was done on the 787-9 but it does appear that Boeing is doing these tests on a production standard aircraft.  The fact that the airplane is flying out of Boeing Field where Boeing Test Flight is based lends some more credence to my theory.




Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries




 






Monday, April 28, 2014

1st Air Canada 787 expected to be delivered in second week of May


Air Canada is expected to take delivery of its first 787 around May 12th subject to successful completion of all flight testing activities. ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) flew 3 test flights already though the 1st one had to be cut off 5 minutes after takeoff due to some packing foam left in a duct as well as a leaking door seal.  Both issues have been rectified.  ZA610 should conduct the 1st customer flight (C-1) on April 30th as an Air Canada crew is already in Everett to prepare for the customer flight(s) and to take the aircraft back to Toronto.  Delivery is scheduled for May 12th but the aircraft is to remain at in Everett until May 18th when it will fly away to Toronto.  The aircraft will have some special events and well as conduct some flight operations in Toronto but will start flying commercially on May 21st between Toronto and Montreal and Toronto to Zurich after that.  It is due to commence its regular run between Toronto and Haneda-Tokyo on July 1st.

Meanwhile April 787 deliveries are looking to be limited to about 5 to 6 aircraft in total.  Norwegian may have taken delivery of its 2nd fully owned 787 today and Qatar, it appears are trying to get their 13th 787 delivered before the end of the month.  There were two test flights for ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) today, April 28 which indicates that they are trying to get in under the wire. Undoubtedly the the reason for the low delivery rate this month was due to the wing issues as well as the travelled work.  I do think deliveries should rebound next month as the issues are slowly being put behind them.  There were a couple more B-1 flights in the last couple of days.  Production flight tempo seems to have increased slightly but as long as it is maintained then May deliveries should be good.  Boeing needs to deliver between 12 ad 14 787s in May to stay on target for 110 Dreamliner deliveries this year.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries


 






Thursday, April 24, 2014

Boeing details 787 progress during 1st quarter earnings call

Yesterday Boeing released its 1s quarter earnings which topped analyst expectations.  The 787 deliveries has contributed significantly to the improved bottom line and Boeing was more than happy to share the progress on the 787 program.

Boeing noted that they hit the 10/month production rate fully during the quarter but also have completed the preliminary design review on the 787-10.  Boeing will now proceed with the detail design of the 787-10 which is expected to enter production around 2016.

The production rate has stabilized at both Charleston and Everett which will also help them stabilize the delivery rate.  Boeing did note that there will be continued variance in the delivery rate as they are there are 18 customers receiving their first 787 this year and typically those customers have different requirements and testing that need to be done as well as differences in financing the final payment.  They did reiterate that they will deliver 110 787s this year. So far through today (April 24, 2014) they have delivered 21 787s.  I believe they can deliver at least 2 more, possibly 3 this month for a total of 23 to 24 for the year and 5 to 6 for the month of April.  Obviously they will need to pick it up in the later months going forward.  The lack of deliveries to Air Canada, I believe, hurt their April delivery number which could have added at least 2 more to that monthly total.  IT is rumored that the delays are attributable to issues with the IFE though it is not confirmed.

As mentioned earlier, Boeing said that the production system has stabilized.  The two issues that have also contributed to slower deliveries was the wing issue by Mitsubishi and the increase in travelled work on the mid body fuselage.  With regards to the former, Boeing said that there are only 3 more aircraft that need to be inspected and fixed thus that issue is largely behind them.  On the later, there has been a great improvement in the reduction of the number of open jobs.  Sources have confirmed this to me to be true but that there is still some improvement needed with regards to the travelled work.  It does appear that there are fewer aircraft going to the EMC and are actually going to the ramp to finish off the minor jobs still opened and then proceeding to the paint hangar.

The 787-9 testing is also going really well and Boeing is still maintaining first delivery in the middle of the year.  The 6th 787-9 to be built just rolled out of final assembly.  This is ZB167 that will be delivered to United Airlines in July.  This aircraft will participate in the flight testing program as well and I anticipate that it should start flying around the middle of next month.  It will undertake F&R/ETOPs testing with the GE GEnx-1B engines.  Boeing also said that unit cost for the 787-9 have improved 30% between the first and 6th 787-9 which is tremendous.  It should continue to drop as more aircraft are introduced into the production system and the assembly has stabilized.  However Boeing is expecting that most of the production over the next couple of years will be 787-8 vs. 787-9.

Lastly, dispatch reliability is continuing to trend above 98% but Boeing still is not satisfied and will be looking to get that above 99% which is not expected to happen until later this summer when improved software is introduced to the 787 fleet.

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All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries


 






Thursday, April 17, 2014

2014 787 delivery prediction and production update

Thus far though the 1st quarter of 2014 Boeing seems to be on track to deliver between 100 and 110 787s.  Aircraft are still entering final assembly at a rate of about 10 to 11 per month which is good but the backlog of completed 787s around Everett has been growing.  That said, last month Boeing delivered 10 787s and they will have to average that rate for the last 3 quarters of this year.

So given the available information that is out there, I put together my best estimate of who will get a 787 this year and how many.  Some of these will be 787-9 deliveries to ANA, Air New Zealand, Scoot, Virgin and possibly American Airlines.  Additionally, Boeing will be looking to complete all contractual firm deliveries to certain customers which includes China Southern (2), Azerbaijan airlines (2), and Ethiopian (5) while British Airways will have their full complement of 8 787-8.  They still have 22 787-9 and 12 787-10 on order.  This table will be updated as warranted so you may want to bookmark it.

All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries




The production of 787s continue as the final assembly lines are humming away more or less).  We are seeing aircraft load into the final assembly positions at a rate of 9 to 11 aircraft per month between both lines. While it is too early to tell, the delivery rate for April may look to be around 10 which is what Boeing needs to average over the next nine months to meet its guidance.  There are 4 787s that appear to be ready to be delivered now that they have had their first customer test flights.  There are 5 more that need to have their customer acceptance flights but with 13 days left in the month this can be done easily.  Boeing has been flying a bit more so it seems that the y are starting to over come the traveled work and wing issues that have hung over the program for the last few months.  One surprise is the seemingly lack of any progress to get the 3 787s for Air Canada ready for delivery.  Two are on the flightline at Everett and a third is at the EMC.  I'm not sure but they may be looking for a triple delivery of 787s but as of today not one AC 787 has even performed a first flight despite being painted and ready to fly.  Boeing will need to conduct a few more B-1 flights in order to prepare the aircraft slated to deliver in May.


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Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Big week for the 787-9


Boeing Photo
 
The 787-9 is seen by some observers as the 787 program done right.  Indeed Boeing has applied lessons learned (and there are countless number of lessons) to the stretch of their new airplane.  The results have been excellent as it appears that Boeing has learned from past mistakes of the 787-8.


Boeing Photo
This week the 787-9 passed several milestones on the road to certification, delivery and entry into service.  We saw the rollout of the first production 787-9 for Air New Zealand, ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) from the Everett paint hangar.  The aircraft was beautiful in ANZ black and white scheme and is easily the best scheme on a 787.  This aircraft, which apparently has its passenger cabin all fitted out, went back into the EMC hangar for more change incorporation work as the FAA signs off on the tests as they are accomplished by the test flight fleet. 

Boeing Photo

Boeing is adding 2 production 787-9 to the test flight program for functionality and reliability testing (F & R) and ETOPs testing.  The last of these two aircraft, which is destined to be delivered to United Airlines in about 3 months time, was rolled out last night on April 8th and is ZB167 (LN 181).  It will do the F & R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx engines and I am guessing that it could start that testing as early the 1st or 2nd week of May. This aircraft has its passenger cabin installed.

The first aircraft to conduct F & R/ETOPs testing is ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) which is to be delivered to ANA probably sometime this year. This aircraft also has its passenger cabin fitted out. It will conduct the same testing on the Roll Royce engines. It had conducted its B-1 flight today, April 9th and will stage the flight testing from Boeing Field.  I believe that ZB197 should complete its flight test duties sometime around the end of May to early June.

Given these development this past week, it appears that Boeing is well on its way to delivering the 787-9.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

Boeing delivers 18 787s in 1st quarter 2014; 787-9 stays on pace to complete certification by June.

Boeing reported 3rd quarter 787 deliveries on Thursday and, given the issues of the past quarter, were surprisingly good.  Boeing has delivered 18 787s in the first quarter of 2014 and 132 through March 31st.  To date Boeing has delivered 133 787s.

I was full expecting 787 deliveries to be curtailed during this quarter due to the on going travelled work as well as the wing inspections.  In March Boeing delivered 10 787s of these 6 of them were in the batch that had been identified as needing wing inspections and possible repairs.  This suggests that not all the 787 in the batch which includes LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive may have the wing issues.  Future deliveries may not be hurt as much as was feared due to this issue.  Notable deliveries were made to Kenya Airways, 2 each to Japan Airlines and Qatar Airways as well as deliveries to Royal Brunei, Aeromexico, Norwegian, United Airlines, and Air India (the first 787 assembled for them).  So far so good.  However, Boeing needs to maintain a delivery rate of 10/month in order to meet their guidance of 100-110 787 deliveries in 2014.  They were hurt by low deliveries in February where the expectation was to be a significantly higher delivery rate compared to the 4 that were actually handed over.

Production seems to have moved back to a regular pace since the travelled work issues forced Boeing to extend the amount of time that each airframe was spent in final assembly.  At the start of the year air frames were spending 34 days in final assembly.  This grew to as many as 42 days but now looks to be trending down.  The last aircraft to be rolled out, ZA136 (LN 179) for ANA spent 37 days in final assembly.  Boeing expects to be over the travelled work issues by the time LN 195 is loaded into Position 1A sometime next Friday.  According to sources, the travelled work has greatly improved thus I do expect that by May Boeing will have stabilized the production system for the 787.  They are are still building at a rate of 10/month according to my data.

While it is still early in April, Boeing does need to pick up the pace of production flight tests.  They have delivered 1 787 to Qatar Airways on April 1 and have started customer flights on ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT.  This aircraft may deliver as early as next week.  However there are only 4 other aircraft that have started production flights and none of those have had customer flights as of yet.  ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) is probably the closest to having customer flights.  There has been a notable lack of 787 B-1 flights, the last came on March 25th...11 days ago.  Moreover aircraft that have been out on the flightline for sometime don't appear ready to start production flights.  ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) was observed by Matt Cawby going back into the EMC for an unknown reason.  Air Canada maintains that they expect their first 787 this spring but there hasn't been anything regarding a month.  They may be able to deliver 10 787s this month but they need to start getting these airplanes into the air.

787-9 flight testing has been steaming along with very few hitches.  It appears that Boeing is on the cusp of starting functionality and reliability and ETOPs flight testing very soon. ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was observed by Matt Cawby as having a US civil registration decal.  I think this aircraft should be conducting its first flight within the next one week and subsequently join the 787-9 test flight program. The program has accumulated well over 1000 flight test hours and about 450 test flights.  It is expected that will accumulated over 1500 flight test hours by the time Boeing is done.  ZB197 will perform the F& R/ETOPs flight tests for the 787-9 powered by Roll Royce, ZB167 (LN 181) for United Airlines will undertake the same testing for the GE powered version of the 787-9.  This aircraft should roll out around Monday, April 7th.  I would expect it to start flying around mid to late May.  It is around this time that flight testing on the Rolls Royce powered 787-9 should almost be complete.

As far as April deliveries are concerned, we've already seen one aircraft delivered to Qatar Airways.  There should be two more than should deliver relatively soon:  ZA 275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT Polish, and ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) for Qatar.  Other carriers that may see deliveries include: Air Canada, Ethiopian, Air India, Hainan, Aeromexico, Norwegian, Royal Brunei, and Jetstar (QANTAS).  A few of the still have to conduct a first flight and more still have to conduct follow on Boeing flights.


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787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

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