Sunday, December 15, 2019

787 Update for November 2019



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Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett64
To be assembled in Charleston64
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly12
Storage2
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep9
Production Testing17
Non Customer Flight Tests0
Ready for Delivery4
Donation3
Delivered918
TOTAL1102

As the year draws to a close, Boeing is continuing to make a push to deliver 787s that have been piling up on the flightlines at Everett and Charleston.  They delivered an anemic 12 787s in November (2 x 787-8, 7 x 787-9 and 3 x 787-10). For the year, Boeing has delivered a total of 137 787s through November (8 x 787-8, 99 x 787-9, and 30 x 787-10).  Total program deliveries through November stand at 918 787s (368 x 787-8, 505 x 787-9, 45 x 787-10).






At the start of the year, I projected that Boeing would deliver around 164 jets.  To do that they would need to deliver 27 787s in December.  So far they've delivered only 4.  The big story affecting 787 deliveries is not production issues but rather deferrals of 787s by Chinese carriers. Boeing had to scramble to find new homes for airplanes that were built but not taken up by their customers.  Notable deferrals include 6 787s for Hainan Airlines, 2 leased 787s for Hong Kong Airlines.  Boeing found new customers for them: Vistara Airlines will take 4 787-9s destined for Hainan airlines but those deliveries won't start until early next year.  Bamboo Airways is taking the other two Hainan 787-9s and those should be delivered this month.  They were transferred from Hainan to China Aircraft Leasing Group which leased them to Bamboo.  The two 787-9s that were to be leased to Hong Kong Airlines from GECAS was sold to Biman Bangladesh Airlines and should be delivered this month.  The one common denominator here is that the deferrals and delays came from Chinese Airlines (Hong Kong Airlines and Hainan which owns Hong Kong Airlines).  I can't help but think if this is all related to the Trump Trade War with China or if it is a financial issue with HNA?  Suparna Airlines (also owned by HNA) was supposed to take several 787s but one of them was NTU and eventually will be going to the UAE as a business jet for the rich and infamous.   These still is another air frame for Suparna which has not flown and I am trying to find out if that aircraft will be going to another customer.  Nonetheless it has caused delays to the delivery of this airplanes which should have been delivered months ago.  Some of these airplanes should be delivered next year.

Charleston still is plagued with production issues leading to a shell game with 787s transiting between the final assembly building and the flightline to finish assembly tasks. Boeing is trying to maintain a build rate of 7/month and it appears that final assembly is taking longer than expected on the Charleston built 787s forcing Boeing to roll them out to the flight line before they are completed so that the line continues to move.  Boeing then rolls them back into 88-30 into a two or three final assembly positions where they can be worked on depending on the amount of work that is left to be done on each 787.  Charleston delivery rates however, have picked up over the last few months which has helped reduce the overcrowding at the flightline.  Everett continues to have a normal production output but their delivery rates have been very low leading to more 787s being left out on the flightline and even being stored on a closed runway that is also occupied by KC-46 tankers and 737 MAXs.  Some of the undelivered backlog belongs to the airlines that are taking some of HNA's airplanes like Vistara, Biman Bangladesh, and Bamboo.  However there are now 7 787-9s for Qatar Airways still sitting on the flightline and storage area at Everett.  Readers of this blog know Qatar Airways' habit for delays because of the smallest item that doesn't meet their standards.  All of Qatar's 787-9 are being built at Everett and the 7 airplanes are supposedly to be delivered this month. The delivery numbers will be important this month as Boeing desperately needs good news from BCA given all the 737 Max news that has come to define the company's performance this year.

The only notable order for the 787 program was from a big fish that Boeing has spent years trying to reel in: Emirates.  And it's firm order too!  Two years ago, Emirates stated their intention to buy 40 787-10s.  That was a big shot in the arm for the 787-10 which needed (and still needs) orders.  However it was just a letter of intent and as time went by the LoI was not firmed up and Emirates' fleet plans changed to the point that there were credible rumors that Emirates would not firm up the 787-10 order.  Indeed the LoI had lapsed during that time. In the last two years saw Emirates cut their A380 orders to the point that it spelled the death of the A380 and signed an LoI for the A350 and A330NEO (firmed up the A350 only). Boeing was (and still is) desperate to sign up more orders especially from a blue chip airline like Emirates. They were willing to cut some of the 777X orders that Emirates had firmed up years ago (a cut of 30 airplanes) in exchange for a firm order for 30 x 787-9s.  While it Boeing has achieved a book to bill of over 1 on the 787 this year, this order helped it with the dwindling 787 backlog and has helped keep the upcoming production rate reduction limited to the two years that Boeing has already announced.  We still have to wait for December's orders to come through in about 3.5 weeks but I'm not optimistic that will see any large orders like we saw from Emirates or Lufthansa this year.

To stay informed of the current 787 order, production and delivery information, please bookmark my spreadsheets using the link below:

787 Spreadsheets

42 comments:

John N Mitchell said...

Thank You Very Much for all the updates on the 787 program. It has answered a lot of questions about what has been going on recently.
It is like a Christmas wish come true.

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mrumprecht said...

One of the Bamboos appears to be delivered

lake erie sailor said...

you probably heard, Boeing CEO has been ousted.

lake erie sailor said...

you probably heard the Boeing CEO is out

hary767 said...

Why 4 Qatar 789 back to Victorville next day after delivery?

Uresh said...

They were flown to Doha

hary767 said...

They returned from doha to Victorville today.

Uresh said...

Probably to have their business class seats installed.

hary767 said...

Thanks

Traveler said...

This isn't a 737 blog but Boeing sure is taking a beating over the 737. I wonder if they shouldn't just scrap the Max and redesign the whole plane. It never sat well with me that they would design a plane that needed software to maintain its balance. I'm no expert but that just seems absurd.

Rob D. said...

Hi Uresh, do you know if there have been any more issues with the 787 batteries in the years since they put them it the fire resistant boxes?

Uresh said...

Not that I've heard but it doesn't necessarily mean that there haven't been any incidents.

Unknown said...

Thank you for such wonderful information

It would be interesting if you could provide information on how many 787 were delivered from Everett, WA and Charleston, SC.

Thank you,

Uresh said...

See my spreadsheets.

johnv777 said...

Uresh,

Another site has reported that Line # 924, bamboo was delivered on 1/15/2020 Here is the Flight aware link:https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BAV68/history/20200115/1100Z/KCHS/RJBB
john

Uresh said...

Thank you John, I made the change.

AEA738 said...

Uresh, here are the regs of future Air Europa 789´s

EC-NGM B787-9 Dreamliner 62517/968
EC-NGN B787-9 Dreamliner 62518/978 Skyteam Livery
EC-NGQ B787-9 Dreamliner 62146/988
EC-NGR B787-9 Dreamliner 62178/992
EC-NGS B787-9 Dreamliner 65090/982
EC-NIL B787-9 Dreamliner 66161/1028

Thanks, Javier
787 Driver

Uresh said...

Thank You!

johnv777 said...

Hello Uresh, Small typo in your "787 Monthly Production and Delivery Tracking" sheet. For January, you show 3 deliveries from CHS and 3 from Everett Per your "Delivered 787 List" it should be 4 CHS, 2 Everett. John

NickSJ said...

FYI in your delivery table, you jumped from United delivery 49 to 51, skipping #50. No need to publish this. Thanks for all your good work!

Jack P said...

Looks like current Delivered List Sheet in 14 Feb Tables is missing 787-10 unit deliveries (onoly 787-9 units listed).

mrumprecht said...

LN982 - is this the first Aercap from Charleston?

Jack P said...

LN480 was a prior AerCap delivery from Charleston (perhaps others earlier?), so no LN982 is not the first.

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johnv777 said...


Hello Uresh, There is still a minor discrepancy in your 787 Monthly Production and delivery Tracking table. In the month of January you show 4 deliveries for Everett, and 2 for Charleston. Per your delivery table, it should be reversed, 2 for Everett and 4 for Charleston.
Thanks for all the tracking you do.
John

GEO_DK said...

How unlike it might sound on this blog.
I love looking at a sky with no condensensions stripes.
Wishing everyone the best 😄

GEO_DK said...

On the other side I've noticed on Flightradar24 that b747 dreamlifter and airbus beluga are operating

John Simms said...

Hi Uresh- Hoping you are doing OK through all this Coronavirus mess. And the same good wishes to those who follow this page.

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Traveler said...

No doubt Boeing is reeling from air traffic plummeting due to travel restrictions. I read an article today about a company in The Netherlands investing in hyperloop technology as a cleaner, cheaper alternative to air travel in Europe.

Will Boeing develop a hyperloop network throughout the Americas? Might be a wise investment if air travel never fully recovers.

Macius said...

Hey Uresh, any chance of the resurrection of your amazing blog? PLEASE!

GEO_DK said...

I well know all of the circumstances at this difficult times. But how are you Uresh
Best regards

Speedbird787 said...

31st British Airways, 1st -10 G-ZBLA delivery flight planned as BA9151P around 20th May.

Speedbird787 said...

The delivery flight of G-ZBLA has been pushed back to 23rd dep CHS arrive LHR 24th

Everton44 said...

As the last post is old, any way you could do an update? I always enjoy your page.

GEO_DK said...

Thou the whole world is in a load of mess. We all need some sort of normality. So how are you doing Uresh and any one else. Have been following the blog for so long it almost feels like a "family"

GEO_DK said...

Don't even think to publish this. But at least tell that this blog is over. Be Ernest!!!!!!!!
I've all the time loved it....

fhm4321 said...

Thank you for all of the work that you put in over the years. I have been reading this blog from the initial days of 787 flight testing.

There are many undelivered 787s in storage now, but line 688 (ZB061) for Air China (B-1216) has been there the longest. Does anyone know the story behind that frame that kept it from being delivered? I seem to recall a production mishap on a wing join, but I thought that pre-dated this frame.

Thanks!

Unknown said...

Hello Uresh. I hope all is well. I've missed the analysis on this blog of recent 787 stories. Is the blog permanently down, or do you plan to do updates again?

GEO_DK said...

Any news about the tailplane complications

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