Saturday, August 3, 2019

787 Deliveries drop in July - 787 Month End Report

Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett93
To be assembled in Charleston93
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep16
Production Testing6
Non Customer Flight Tests0
Ready for Delivery1

As the 737 MAX and 777X issues take a bite out of Boeing's bottom line, we are seeing that BCA needs to have its other aircraft programs (widebody aircraft) step up. However the 747 is down to a 6/year production rate and the 777NG/777Classic is at 6/month down from 8.3/month and the 767 which is at 1.5/month is projected to go up to 2/month due to demand for freighters and the KC-46A program. Freighter demand may also increase the 777 output.  

Most importantly the 787 program needs to be firing on all cylinders. Until the 737 MAX is back to normal production and delivery rates, it will be the 787 and 777 programs that will be carrying the financial burden and will provide a level of revenue stream that will allow BCA to weather the 737 MAX/777X storm.

In July, Boeing delivered 12 787 (1 x 787-8, 10 x 787-9 1 x 787-10).  A total of  90 787 have been delivered in 2019 through the end of July (3 x 787-8, 70 x 787-9, 17 x 787-10). Total program to end of July 2019 deliveries stand at 871 aircraft (363 x 787-8, 476 x 787-9, 32 x 787-10).

The July delivery number has examined a little bit more closely however.  Boeing missed the delivery target by two units (12 vs. 14).  8 deliveries came from Everett so they exceeded their expected deliveries but Charleston fell way short of it's delivery target of 7 airplanes by 3 units (4 vs. 7).

787s built in Charleston are taking a long time to get through final assembly, ground and flight testing, and eventually to delivery with some planes taking as long as a 104 days.  Everett built 787s are being assembled and delivered 50 to 60 days...this is a huge difference and the reason is unclear though one can think back to the New York Times article that came out on April 20th, 2019 regarding shoddy work on the 787s built at Charleston.  These delays out of Charleston may be a backlash from that article. I theorize that Charleston managers are spending extra time to correct any workmanship issues but also the pace of assembly may be more than the Charleston facility can handle thus forcing them to roll out the aircraft not fully completed and doing some assembly tasks on the Charleston flightline.  This is similar to something we saw before in the early days of the 787 program at Everett. Unfinished assembly tasks known as traveled work followed airplanes out of the final assembly building onto the flightline where they were completed before ground testing and first flight of each new 787.  Also looking at the backlog on the flightline is evidence of something going on at Charleston:  There are currently 25 787s on between the two flightlines.  9 are at Everett and 16 are at Charleston while both final assembly locations are producing 787s at 7 airframes per month.  At Everett, of the 9 787s there, 5 have taken their B1 flight. At Charleston of the 16 airframes only 3 have flown for the first time. So the time between the roll out of the Charleston built aircraft and it's first flight is more than those built at Everett and thus the total amount of time from final assembly to delivery has increased at Charleston and has caused a large backlog of airplanes at Charleston waiting to be delivered.

As mentioned previously, 787 production continues at the set pace of 14 per month equally distributed between both locations.  Both locations load and roll out aircraft virtually on the same dates.

It is clear that with the 787 program that this is now a high margin business for Boeing and, in light of the current issues in the other commercial aircraft programs, a key revenue driver.  Boeing can ill afford to have the 787 program stumble at this critical period and Charleston's contribution that the 787 bottom line is crucial thus it must look to remediate the issues that are holding back deliveries.  August and September deliveries will be telling if there is any improvements in their production.

in the meantime you can follow the latest production and delivery progress of the entire 787 program by clicking on the link below for my 787 Spreadsheets.


John E said...

With the flightline workers trying to unionize in Charleston and Boeing fighting that, those workers may also be dragging their feet to press the issue.

Uresh said...

I doubt that.

NickSJ said...

Minor correction. The registration number for the EVA Air 787-10 about to be delivered is the same as the last one delivered to them. No need to publish this.

Dave said...

With the recent new engine failure on a Rolls powerplant for Norwegian the 787 is under ever more pressure. Boeing have to get this right. I know the issue is with Rolls but the public see it as a Boeing.
I can see current Rolls operators switching to GE.
Makea you wonder if eother Boeing or Rolls Royce will go bust...

Paul Clark said...

Hi Uresh

The latest Turkish delivery (8/28) in your "delivered aircraft" chart is not TC-LLE as shown, but in fact TC-LLF serial no 65806. No idea how/why these got out of order, but presumably TC-LLE won't be far behind in leaving.



Everton44 said...

Suparna Airlines in Charleston is now going to UAE. It is painted and on the flightline.

Everton44 said...

It looks like the 787 for Suparna is now going to the UAE Government. It is painted on the flightline in a recent tweet.

mrumprecht said...

From Ch aviation news - Biman taking some NTU 787s?

20.09.2019 - 23:02 UTC

Biman Bangladesh Airlines (BG, Dhaka) will add a further two unspecified Boeing aircraft, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina told the media during a welcome ceremony for the carrier's fourth B787-8.

"Three more Dash planes are coming soon [on firm order from De Havilland Aircraft of Canada]. But we have found out that Boeing is looking to sell two planes quickly. Someone ordered the aircraft but didn't take them. But we will take them instead," Sheikh Hasina said.

According to the ch-aviation fleets advanced module, the Bangladeshi flag carrier currently operates two Dash 8 turboprops, six B737-800s, four B777-300(ER)s, and four B787-8s.

Sheikh Hasina said that the airline will use its fourth B787-8 to launch flights to Manchester Int'l.

She also added that the country will invest in cargo facilities at Dhaka and will subsequently add two freighters to Biman's fleet.

There is currently only one active freighter jet registered in Bangladesh, a B737-200(F) operated by SkyAir (S8, Dhaka).

grahamj said...

LN981, the first of AA's new batch of improved 787-8s is going into production soon. I noticed that other airlines (JAL, EL-AL, Scoot) have 787-8s coming right after LN981 for AA. And there are a couple just before LN981. When is the changeover for 787-8s, and will all the 787-8s after the changeover be improved models? Finally, do you have any information regarding any spec changes for the improved 787-8s?

johnv777 said...

Uresh, is everything ok? I have noticed very few updates to your Current production spreadsheets. For example Qantas line # 921 still shows in final assembly, but I have seen pictures of it painted on the flight line. Also line # 874 had a delivery flight on Thursday Sept 26.

Beekeeper Fred said...

Has your source for information on Charleston production status been interrupted?

Beekeeper Fred said...

Uresh, has your source of Charleston production status been interrupted?

John H said...

Hi Uresh,

Hope you are well and I just want to thank you for all the work you have put in over the years updating your 787Blog. I am a frequent visitor and appreciate being able to see what 787's are coming down the line.

It has been a while since the last update and I was wondering if you were going to continue the blog. Again, thank you for all the info you have provided.


Capt Rob said...

Seems like this report is more or less dead

747-8 said...

Seems like this Blog is dead. The last Post from Uresh is from August 3th. Very sad as this was a very good blog to get News for the 787

Uresh said...

Rest In Peace

John N Mitchell said...

I am very sad to see it go!

Uresh said...

See what go? And where?

John N Mitchell said...

With your previous response "RIP", I presumed you were killing of the blog.
Gee, I hope not.

skywalker said...

Not sure what to make of the RIP comment. As clear as Trump's Syrian policy :) Seriously, maintaining this blog probably takes up a lot of time and is a huge commitment to keep going. Uresh has done a great job and supported our 787 news cravings over the years. I believe he's take a break in the past for a while. "Real" life does get in the way from time to time. Let's hope he's OK and will resume blogging. If not, it was certainly a good run! Lot's to chronical over the years for sure.

Uresh said...

I past away. You're communicating (or communing) with my ghost!

skywalker said...

Looking forward to your Halloween post, then :)

Capt Rob said...

Skywalker says it well. Uresh has done a masterful job in the past and it must be a challenge to maintain this level of information. It is appreciated and habit forming to go to this blog for latest information but also disappointing when there are months long gaps from one post to another. Many of us in the business would gladly contribute to the cause if that would help. If it is the end of the road, many thanks for your hard work.

Uresh said...

Ok I'm not dead, just trying to get caught up on things and focusing on my new job.

Dave said...

Uresh, a new job always takes a lot of getting into and even minor changes to the way a company works changes a lot for the individual

John Simms said...

Best wishes on your new job. looking forward to future blogs and always happy with the spreadsheet updates.

mrumprecht said...

LN 904 delivered

AEA738 said...

New Air Europa regs

EC-NFM ZE380 787-9 62145
EC-NGM ZE016 787-9 62517
EC-NGN ZE017 787-9 62518
EC-NGQ ZE381 787-9 62146
EC-NGR ZE481 787-9 62178
EC-NGS ZE115 787-9 65090


DoubleJ said...

I assume Vistara taking over the Hainan 9s has to do with financing issues and that Hainan will not be deferring those deliveries until later? Any word on when Vistara and Hainan will actually be taking deliveries of those planes?

DoubleJ said...

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GEO_DK said...

Congregation to Qantas on the long and successful flight.
Must admit that I would rather take that kind of trip in the old kind of fashion!!!
(Big ship. And a lot of entertainment)
For this the MAmuts might Serv a perpus!???

mrumprecht said...

LN912 looks delivered

Macius said...

No pressure Uresh, but I really miss the updates! It is my most favorite blog for like... I don't know how many years now? This and the non existing 787 Flightblogger blog. Please!

BarewaNG said...

2019 free recharge app for Android

mrumprecht said...

Emirates Order Finalized. Its been a long wait

Unknown said...

Uresh thank you for this blog, I love it and watch it daily. Can you tell me why there are about 12 planes that should have been delivered by now as they have been on the flight line for months? I’m guessing they are having trouble raising the final funds for the aircraft? Does Boeing charge them a nominal interest rate when they are sitting there?