Better late than never. My apologies for getting my latest blog post out really late as I have been preoccupied with personal matters that required my attention. Hopefully I'll be able to regularly update the blog going forward. On to the matter at hand.
April, 2018
787 deliveries were driven lower than expected due to the continuing Roll Royce Trent 1000 issues with turbine blade corrosion and compressor problems on the Package C Trents. Currently, newly assembled Trent 1000 powered 787s are rolling out of the assembly halls with weights hanging off the engine pylons. Through May 23rd, I have counted 7 Trent powered airframes sans their powerplants. While the issues is expected to be an ongoing headache for both Boeing and Rolls Royce there are a couple of silver linings. 1) it appears that the delay in hanging the engines off the newly assembled aircraft is about 1 month thus I expect that delays in the delivery of these aircraft should be on the order of 4 to 6 weeks depending on Boeing's ability to receive new Trent 1000s at a steady rate. 2) The number of Trent powered 787s to be delivered between now and early 2019 as a percentage of the total deliveries amounts to about 30% meaning of the 129 787s that I have listed on my spreadsheets for delivery to customers, 40 of these are powered by the Rolls Royce engines. Thus in the near term, the on going reduction in supply of new Trent 1000 engines shouldn't impact deliveries greatly for the remainder of 2018. This assumes that Rolls Royce doesn't find any more issues with the engines and that they can increase production for replacement engines as well as engines for new production aircraft.
As far as deliveries go, Boeing shipped out 8 787s including the second 787-10 for Singapore Airlines and Virgin Atlantic's last 787-9 on its order of 17 airplanes. Gulf Air's and China Southern's first 787-9 were also delivered during the past month.
Boeing maintained its 12/month production rate though given the low delivery rates, it means that the flightlines are getting more crowded at Everett and Charleston through the end of April. Boeing delivered 8 787s in April (7 x 787-9 and 1 x 787-10). For the year Boeing delivered 42 787s (40 x 787-9 and 2 x 787-10). Since program deliveries began big B has turned over 678 (350 x 787-8, 326 x 787-9, 2 x 787-10).
In terms of orders, Boeing booked American's huge 47 aircraft order (22 x 787-8 and 25 x 787-9). Curiously the 787-8 were booked under Boeing Capital Corp. meaning that American may be leasing them from BCC.
At the end of April, Boeing announced that the 787 deferred production costs came down to $24.69bn during the 1Q2018 from $25.358bn in the previous quarter. That's a reduction of $668 million which is a substantial amount of reduction for 1 quarter.
April, 2018
787 deliveries were driven lower than expected due to the continuing Roll Royce Trent 1000 issues with turbine blade corrosion and compressor problems on the Package C Trents. Currently, newly assembled Trent 1000 powered 787s are rolling out of the assembly halls with weights hanging off the engine pylons. Through May 23rd, I have counted 7 Trent powered airframes sans their powerplants. While the issues is expected to be an ongoing headache for both Boeing and Rolls Royce there are a couple of silver linings. 1) it appears that the delay in hanging the engines off the newly assembled aircraft is about 1 month thus I expect that delays in the delivery of these aircraft should be on the order of 4 to 6 weeks depending on Boeing's ability to receive new Trent 1000s at a steady rate. 2) The number of Trent powered 787s to be delivered between now and early 2019 as a percentage of the total deliveries amounts to about 30% meaning of the 129 787s that I have listed on my spreadsheets for delivery to customers, 40 of these are powered by the Rolls Royce engines. Thus in the near term, the on going reduction in supply of new Trent 1000 engines shouldn't impact deliveries greatly for the remainder of 2018. This assumes that Rolls Royce doesn't find any more issues with the engines and that they can increase production for replacement engines as well as engines for new production aircraft.
As far as deliveries go, Boeing shipped out 8 787s including the second 787-10 for Singapore Airlines and Virgin Atlantic's last 787-9 on its order of 17 airplanes. Gulf Air's and China Southern's first 787-9 were also delivered during the past month.
Boeing maintained its 12/month production rate though given the low delivery rates, it means that the flightlines are getting more crowded at Everett and Charleston through the end of April. Boeing delivered 8 787s in April (7 x 787-9 and 1 x 787-10). For the year Boeing delivered 42 787s (40 x 787-9 and 2 x 787-10). Since program deliveries began big B has turned over 678 (350 x 787-8, 326 x 787-9, 2 x 787-10).
In terms of orders, Boeing booked American's huge 47 aircraft order (22 x 787-8 and 25 x 787-9). Curiously the 787-8 were booked under Boeing Capital Corp. meaning that American may be leasing them from BCC.
At the end of April, Boeing announced that the 787 deferred production costs came down to $24.69bn during the 1Q2018 from $25.358bn in the previous quarter. That's a reduction of $668 million which is a substantial amount of reduction for 1 quarter.
Thus far in May, Boeing has delivered 10 787s (1 x 787-8, 7 x 787-9 and 2 x 787-10). The one surprise was the 787-8 meant for Royal Jordanian went to Uzbekistan Airways. It appears that Royal Jordanian sold ZA698 (LN 652) to Uzbekistan Airways. I expect that Boeing will deliver 2 more 787s by the end of the month. Through May 21st, Boeing has rolled out 9 787s though I do expect a couple more to roll out by month's end. Flight testing has been slower due to the continued issues surrounding the Trent 1000.
Orders
Boeing has been enjoying a good order year for the 787 and it appears they're piling on more orders (which I expect to be announced at Farnborough in about 6 weeks). I do expect that United Airlines will sign on for another 50 787s to replace the 767-300 in their fleet. The 787 was up against the A330NEO and from the reports I've read, the 787 has the inside track to win this order. I also expect that Emirates will firm their order for 40 787s as well and perhaps Hawaiian will also firm up their order at this time.
In the meantime, follow the production and delivery story by viewing my spreadsheets.
787 Spreadsheets
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8 comments:
Don't apologize for not having the update sooner. Your personal life is more important than regular updates.
Saudi gulf airlines still interested as well..
Hello,
So question for the group. AA had 42 birds on order, and just signed for 47 more.... not counting the options of either the original or new orders. By my math that is 89 aircraft on order. But, Boeing's press release notes they will only be the largest operator in the West, not in the world. Also, Boeing's order sheet(and wiki on 787 O/D) lists they will have 67 frames. ANA only has 83 frames, AA would seem to be the larger operator. So,.... the 22 788 will be leased from BCC and don't get to count as AA's fleet?
Hello, question for the group. So, by my math AA has 89 aircraft on order, 42 from the original batch and the new order of 47, not counting options at all. However, the Boeing press release states that AA will only be the largest operator in the West, not in the world. But, ANA only has 83 aircraft on order. Then, the Boeing order list (and the wiki on 787 O/D) list AA with 67 frames. So, the 22 788 that AA will lease from BCC don't get to count for the AA fleet size? Seems like the wording of "operator" could encompass all 89 since they didnt say "owner"?
I see no engine choice listed for Egypt Air.
Looks like Middle East Airlines is in the final stages of making a decision between ordering 4 of either the A330-900 or the 787-9 to be delivered between 2019 and 2021. Not a huge order and while Airbus likely has the inside track as MEA is an all airbus fleet, would be a good get for Boeing to begin winning more of their orders as older planes come off lease / come due for replacement. (Source: MEA instagram)
As the 788 transitions to a 789 "shrink", will any 789 features be deleted? And what will the MTOW be? It would seem that the 552000 lb MTOW of the 789 could transfer to the 788 for free. Same with the OEW and MSP. But there are no details in the press that I can find.
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