| Number | |
| Testing Complete | 3 |
| To be assembled in Everett | 143 |
| To be assembled in Charleston | 104 |
| Parts Arriving | 6 |
| Undergoing final assembly | 8 |
| Storage | 0 |
| Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work | 0 |
| Change Incorporation and Re-Work | 3 |
| Pre-Flight Prep | 7 |
| Production Testing | 7 |
| Non Customer Flight Tests | 1 |
| Ready for Delivery | 2 |
| Donation | 3 |
| Delivered | 500 |
| TOTAL | 787 |
Part of the reduction of this expense is not just attributable to reducing across the board costs with Partnering for Success as well as internal cost management but also a greater mix of 787-9 vs 787-8 aircraft being delivered. This trend is going to continue through 2017 as we'll see a greater number of 787-9s delivered vs. 2016.
I am projecting that Boeing will deliver 145 787s in 2017 vs. 137 in 2016 (6% increase). This includes 118 787-9s vs. 102 that were actually delivered in 2016 (up 16% from the 2016 levels). Thus there will be 27 787-8 deliveries vs. 35 that were delivered in 2016 (a 23% decrease year over year). The 787-8 delivery total includes 5 early build 787-8s that should conclude a forgettable part of the 787 program.
New 787 Operators in 2017
There are going to be a few new operators of the 787 stating in 2017. Among them are:
Air Tanzania (787-8 rumored to be delivered in 2017)
El Al Airlines (787-9)
Korean Air (787-9)
Neos (787-9)
QANTAS (787-9)
and whomever buys Crystal Air's 787-8
Additionally, UAE Presidential Flight which had taken delivery of a 787-8 will also take delivery of a 787-9 this year as will Thai International Airways.
2017 Deliveries: More 787-9s
From the table below you can see the distribution of deliveries by customer and operator. AerCap looks to be the 2017 winner with 16 787-9 deliveries coming in the new year followed by American Airlines with 13 and Norwegian Air with 10. Unsurprisingly most these are 787-9s.
| Operator | Total Expected 787 Deliveries (2017) | Total Expected 787-8 Deliveries (2017) | Total Expected 787-9 Deliveries (2017) |
| Aeroméxico | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Air Canada | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Air China | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Air Europa | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Air France | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Air India | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Air New Zealand | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| American Airlines | 13 | 3 | 10 |
| ANA | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Avianca | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| British Airways | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Crystal Air | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| El Al Airlines | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Ethiopian Airlines | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Etihad Airways | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Hainan Airlines | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Japan Airlines | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Korean Air | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| LAN | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| LOT Polish Airlines | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Neos | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Norwegian Air International Ltd | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Oman Air | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| QANTAS | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Royal Jordanian | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Saudi Arabian Airlines | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Scoot Pte Ltd | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Thai Airways International | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Unknown | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Thomson | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| UAE Presidential Flight | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| United Airlines | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Vietnam Airlines | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Virgin Atlantic Airways | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Xiamen Airlines | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TOTAL | 145 | 27 | 118 |
| Customer | Total Expected 787 Deliveries (2017) | Total Expected 787-8 Deliveries (2017) | Total Expected 787-9 Deliveries (2017) |
| AerCap | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| Aeroméxico | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Air Canada | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Air China | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Air Europa | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Air France | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Air India | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Air New Zealand | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| ALC | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| American Airlines | 13 | 3 | 10 |
| ANA | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Avianca | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| BBJ | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| British Airways | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| CIT Leasing | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Ethiopian Airlines | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Etihad Airways | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| Hainan Airlines | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Japan Airlines | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Korean Air | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| LAN | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LOT Polish Airlines | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Norwegian Air International Ltd | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| QANTAS | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Royal Jordanian | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Saudi Arabian Airlines | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Saudi Ministry of Finance | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Scoot Pte Ltd | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Unknown | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| TUI Travel | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| United Airlines | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Vietnam Airlines | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Virgin Atlantic Airways | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Xiamen Airlines | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TOTAL | 145 | 27 | 118 |
The tables below summarizes the number of planned deliveries by month, build location and variant.
It's interesting to note that currently, Boeing is planning to deliver 16 787s at the end of the year. The delivery totals are quite uneven with most deliveries coming in the second half of the year. In fact the delivery rate for the 1st half of 2017 won't keep up with the production rate thus creating a temporary backlog that should be cleared in the second half of 2017. Still with a production rate of 12/month equating to a yearly output of 144 787s, Boeing, it seems will be lowering the delivery rate. The logic is as follows. While Boeing is projected to deliver 145 787s, 5 of these are early build 787s thus the delivery rate of new build 787s in 2017 is 140 as opposed to a production rate of 144. However, during this year Boeing will also produce 4 787-10 that will not be delivered until 2018, Thus with the introduction of the 787-10 into the production system, the 787 delivery rate will be slightly lower than would be normally expected given the 12/month rate.
The delivery of 787 number 600 should take place in late September and of course there will be just shy of 650 787s flying the world skies by the end of 2017.
| Month | Total | 787-8 | 787-9 | Charleston | Everett |
| January | 12 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 8 |
| February | 10 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| March | 10 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| April | 10 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| May | 12 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| June | 9 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| July | 13 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| August | 14 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| September | 12 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 7 |
| October | 13 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 7 |
| November | 14 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 8 |
| December | 16 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 9 |
| Location | Planned 2017 Deliveries |
| Charleston | 54 |
| Everett | 91 |
| Charleston | Planned 2017 Deliveries |
| 787-8 | 1 |
| 787-9 | 53 |
| Everett | Planned 2017 Deliveries |
| 787-8 | 26 |
| 787-9 | 65 |
With the cancellation of Delta's 787-8 order (inherited from Northwest during the merger of those carriers), the total 787 order book has dropped below 1200 but ominously for the 787-8, the current backlog of that variant is at 90 with 26 or those being delivered this year. Given that there are other 787-8 orders that are still sketchy, the actual 787-8 may actually be lower than 90. I can see the number of 787-8 deliveries in future years dropping into the single digits. Boeing will need to execute on the 787-9 and 787-10 as they will form the backbone and the cash cow of the 787 program in the years to come save a major revamp of the 787-8 in the same vein of the 777-300ER development.
Lastly, now that January 2017 is here, let's take a glance at expected deliveries for this month. Again Boeing is scheduled to hand over 12 787s this month, 10 will be 787-9 and will be 787-8. 8 are produced in Everett and the remaining 4 are built in North Charleston.In terms of the customer mix this month, there aren't any new operators or customers receiving their first 787 this month. 2017 is looking to get off to a bold start for the 787 program.
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7 comments:
Great Analysis. Thanks
Thanks for the great heads-up. Maybe by now they can develop a derivative of the 8s with the knowlege gained over the hundreds of units successfully flying, feedback from customers and passengers. They're such a nice flying machines.
Air Planes Analysis per month is very good planning and management.Planning Management Resources
Uresh - I see AI just took delivery of their 23rd, after just 2 checkout flights. Apparently AI has figured out how to maintain their 787's, as I haven't read any recent Boeing bashing on their part. What has changed there, as they were the loudest and most disgruntled 787 customer. They also had trouble paying for their planes, initially. Do they have new management?
Hi Uresh,
do we have any idea when the 787-9 will be delivered to Qatar?
Thanks
I don't have that information yet.
An indication of the line having matured: 4,3,2,4,2,4,3,3,5: These are the number of checkout flights in January which indicate the planes are rolling off in great shape.
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