Ok so last post I figured that Boeing will not deliver more than 4 787s in March. Well I'm having a crow dinner as Boeing has delivered 5 this month and looks to possibly deliver 4 to 5 more before the end of the month.
Last week Boeing did deliver three 787s to customers (one for Japan Airlines, one for Qatar, and one for United Airlines). Now it's looking like Boeing can deliver one to Qatar this week as well as two for ILFC (for Norwegian and Aeromexico), Royal Brunei and possibly Kenya Airways. The later is to fly to Nairobi around April 4th but it may deliver a few days before that and fly away on April 3rd.
It does appear that Boeing flight activities are picking up, possibly to verify any wing fixes on the aircraft that needed them. I do believe that the airplanes are still going to the EMC to finish off travel work but also to conduct the wing inspections and implement the fix if needed.
Meanwhile the ramp in Everett continues to get crowded while the Charleston ramp is starting to see an easing of congestion. Of the 5 787s delivered this month, 3 were Charleston built 787 and 2 were built in Everett. One aircraft that was built in Everett, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) for Air India was delivered at Charleston even though it was built in Everett.
Boeing did deliver LN 152, on the 787s that was within the batch with suspected wing issues. It appears that this aircraft was cleared of the issues after the inspection and was subsequently delivered to Japan Airlines.
In terms of production, It appears that Boeing is continuing on rolling out 10 787s per month. LN 190 should be the last 787 to enter final assembly this month. Lastly, I do anticipate that ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) should make its first flight sometime in April and join the 787-9 test flight fleet. This will be a production standard aircraft with little to no flight test wiring/equipment.
As far as April 787 deliveries goes...it's too soon to tell. We would need to see more B-1 flights and there hasn't been one of those since March 10th...2 weeks ago.
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Sunday, March 23, 2014
Monday, March 17, 2014
Boeing's March Madness - 787s starting to crowd Everett Ramp as inventory grows
The inventory of completed or almost completed 787s grows at the Boeing flightline in Everett. So far this month there have been two 787 deliveries, both made from he North Charleston final assembly site though one of the delivered aircraft was an Everett built frame for Air India.
Testing continues to be very slow with only one aircraft going up for a single test flight per day on average. Obviously Boeing is in the middle of inspection of the shear ties in the wings where cracks may have developed when fasteners were over-tightened with out gap fillers. Given the dearth of 787 flight activity from Everett, it appears that many of the 787s in the batch that includes L/N 151 to L/N 193 Many of these aircraft have been built or are in final assembly. The wing crack issues only exacerbated the delays in the 787 production stream bought on by increasing traveled work in the mid-body fuselage from South Carolina. The increase in traveled work, as you may recall, was caused by the laying off of about 600 experienced contract employees from Charleston coupled with the increase in production of the 787 and the introduction of the 787-9 into the production system.
I don't expect Boeing to deliver more than 2 more 787s this month one to Qatar Airways and one to Japan Airlines. Thus I expect the inventory of 787s to grow through at least mid April then to decrease thereafter but the only way to figure that out is to watch the flight activity out of both Everett and Charleston.
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Testing continues to be very slow with only one aircraft going up for a single test flight per day on average. Obviously Boeing is in the middle of inspection of the shear ties in the wings where cracks may have developed when fasteners were over-tightened with out gap fillers. Given the dearth of 787 flight activity from Everett, it appears that many of the 787s in the batch that includes L/N 151 to L/N 193 Many of these aircraft have been built or are in final assembly. The wing crack issues only exacerbated the delays in the 787 production stream bought on by increasing traveled work in the mid-body fuselage from South Carolina. The increase in traveled work, as you may recall, was caused by the laying off of about 600 experienced contract employees from Charleston coupled with the increase in production of the 787 and the introduction of the 787-9 into the production system.
I don't expect Boeing to deliver more than 2 more 787s this month one to Qatar Airways and one to Japan Airlines. Thus I expect the inventory of 787s to grow through at least mid April then to decrease thereafter but the only way to figure that out is to watch the flight activity out of both Everett and Charleston.
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Tuesday, March 11, 2014
787 testing and deliveries slow in March
On the heels of the revelation of the wing crack on certain 787s and the inspection and repair program that Boeing has implemented, the testing and deliveries of 787s to customers has slowed considerably through the first 10 days of March.
This is certainly attributable to the ramp up of inspection of the block of Dreamliners that have been identified (LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive) as possibly having the cracks. It should be noted that not all of these airplanes may have the cracks as the aircraft has to be inspected for them.
Reminiscent of the last years grounding as well as the delays to program prior to FAA certification, the Everett ramp is filling up with 787s once again. There 13 production 787s that are out on the Everett flightline. Boeing continues to build 787s at the same rate of 10/month.
The wing problems already exacerbate the existing issues revolving around the production of the 787 mid-body fuselage section which has been slowed due to the introduction of the higher production rate and the start of 787-9 assembly. Boeing certainly didn't do themselves any favors when they let go of hundreds of contractors last year.
In terms of production flights, the trend, of late, is that there would be a flight made by 1 or 2 787s a day but this included a 787-8 B-1 flight made by ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT. There hasn't been a flight made by airplanes that flew last month as these aircraft are either going through inspections or are having repairs made to them. Reports in the media say that deliveries would be delayed a few weeks with some reports saying this would be 1 to 2 weeks.
Certainly the repairs shouldn't take that much time as well as any post repair inspections but the large number of aircraft that are potentially affected may make this a longer project than most anticipate.
Boeing has delivered 1 787, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) to Air India and they could potentially deliver 2-3 787s to Qatar Airways and possibly 1 to United Airlines. All these aircraft are pre-L/N 151 aircraft and is not subject to the wing inspections. If they can get their act together they could still deliver 1 to 2 aircraft that are in the lot of 43 aircraft. Most likely Boeing can deliver a total of 5 to 6 787s this month and try to catch up to deliveries during April and May. I think they should be back on their regular delivery schedule by June but until then, 787s will continue to stack up on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.
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Reminiscent of the last years grounding as well as the delays to program prior to FAA certification, the Everett ramp is filling up with 787s once again. There 13 production 787s that are out on the Everett flightline. Boeing continues to build 787s at the same rate of 10/month.
The wing problems already exacerbate the existing issues revolving around the production of the 787 mid-body fuselage section which has been slowed due to the introduction of the higher production rate and the start of 787-9 assembly. Boeing certainly didn't do themselves any favors when they let go of hundreds of contractors last year.
In terms of production flights, the trend, of late, is that there would be a flight made by 1 or 2 787s a day but this included a 787-8 B-1 flight made by ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT. There hasn't been a flight made by airplanes that flew last month as these aircraft are either going through inspections or are having repairs made to them. Reports in the media say that deliveries would be delayed a few weeks with some reports saying this would be 1 to 2 weeks.
Certainly the repairs shouldn't take that much time as well as any post repair inspections but the large number of aircraft that are potentially affected may make this a longer project than most anticipate.
Boeing has delivered 1 787, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) to Air India and they could potentially deliver 2-3 787s to Qatar Airways and possibly 1 to United Airlines. All these aircraft are pre-L/N 151 aircraft and is not subject to the wing inspections. If they can get their act together they could still deliver 1 to 2 aircraft that are in the lot of 43 aircraft. Most likely Boeing can deliver a total of 5 to 6 787s this month and try to catch up to deliveries during April and May. I think they should be back on their regular delivery schedule by June but until then, 787s will continue to stack up on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.
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Friday, March 7, 2014
Wall Street Journal: Undelivered 787 to be inspected for wing cracks
The Wall Street Journal's Jon Ostrower reported today that a change in the manufacturing process in the Mitsubishi built wings for the 787 may cause hairline cracks to develop.
This is another potential issue in a whole list of issues dating back to 2007 that have plagued the 787. Jon identified the 787s affected as aircraft LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive. Boeing said that some of the 43 aircraft have cracks and some do not while others have yet to be inspected. According to the database that I have compiled, most of the aircraft have been built or are under going final assembly. Some of the wings that are still in Japan are assigned to the later line numbers.
According to the Journal, Mitsubishi changed the way it manufactured the wings. However this process creates a problem which "stems from fasteners used to connect aluminum shear ties on the wing ribs to the carbon fiber composite wing panel, according to two people familiar with the situation."
Of the 43 aircraft that are affected, 7 have flown production flights and 18 have completed final assembly. There are a further 14 undergoing final assembly both at Everett and North Charleston. Another 11 are waiting to enter final assembly. These 11 all should enter the final assembly process over the next 5 weeks or so.
It is unclear what impact this would have on the delivery schedule but Boeing is saying that deliveries should be unaffected. Furthermore it is unclear what changes Mitsubishi or Boeing will implement to ensure that these crack don't occur again.
This is another potential issue in a whole list of issues dating back to 2007 that have plagued the 787. Jon identified the 787s affected as aircraft LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive. Boeing said that some of the 43 aircraft have cracks and some do not while others have yet to be inspected. According to the database that I have compiled, most of the aircraft have been built or are under going final assembly. Some of the wings that are still in Japan are assigned to the later line numbers.
| Line Number | Customer | |
| LN151 | Hainan Airlines | |
| LN152 | Japan Airlines | |
| LN153 | ILFC/Norwegian | |
| LN154 | China Southern Airlines | |
| LN155 | ILFC/Aeromexico | |
| LN156 | Royal Brunei Airlines | |
| LN157 | Kenya Airways | |
| LN158 | Air India | |
| LN159 | Japan Airlines | |
| LN160 | Air Canada | |
| LN161 | LOT Polish Airlines | |
| LN162 | QANTAS | |
| LN163 | ILFC/Aeromexico | |
| LN164 | Ethiopian Airlines | |
| LN165 | Norwegian | |
| LN166 | Royal Brunei Airlines | |
| LN167 | Ethiopian Airlines | |
| LN168 | Ethiopian Airlines | |
| LN169 | Air New Zealand | |
| LN170 | Air Canada | |
| LN171 | Hainan Airlines | |
| LN172 | China Southern Airlines | |
| LN173 | British Airways | |
| LN174 | Air Canada | |
| LN175 | QANTAS | |
| LN176 | Qatar Airways | |
| LN177 | British Airways | |
| LN178 | ILFC/Norwegian | |
| LN179 | ANA | |
| LN180 | Air India | |
| LN181 | United Airlines | |
| LN182 | TUI Travel (Arke) | |
| LN183 | ILFC/Norwegian | |
| LN184 | Kenya Airways | |
| LN185 | LAN | |
| LN186 | United Airlines | |
| LN187 | British Airways | |
| LN188 | Qatar Airways | |
| LN189 | QANTAS | |
| LN190 | ILFC/Thai | |
| LN191 | TUI Travel (Thomson) | |
| LN192 | Kenya Airways | |
| LN193 | BBJ |
According to the Journal, Mitsubishi changed the way it manufactured the wings. However this process creates a problem which "stems from fasteners used to connect aluminum shear ties on the wing ribs to the carbon fiber composite wing panel, according to two people familiar with the situation."
"The fasteners were over-tightened without the use of manufacturing fillers, compressing a gap in the structure and in some cases caused hairline cracks of less than an inch. If left unchecked can cause unintended stress on the jet's structure and could lead to further damage. 'We understand the issue, what must be done to correct it, and are completing inspections of potentially affected airplanes. We are addressing affected airplanes as required,' said the Boeing spokesman."
Of the 43 aircraft that are affected, 7 have flown production flights and 18 have completed final assembly. There are a further 14 undergoing final assembly both at Everett and North Charleston. Another 11 are waiting to enter final assembly. These 11 all should enter the final assembly process over the next 5 weeks or so.
It is unclear what impact this would have on the delivery schedule but Boeing is saying that deliveries should be unaffected. Furthermore it is unclear what changes Mitsubishi or Boeing will implement to ensure that these crack don't occur again.
Tuesday, March 4, 2014
787 February Production and Delivery Report
With the first 2 months of 2014 officially in the books, the 787 program is starting to show some new signs of life but there are still some dark clouds hanging over the program but the darkest one of all is the continued travel work from Charleston's mid-body fuselage assembly. I still do not expect that the issue will be resolved until next month.
It does appear that Boeing has changed the production system a bit in light of the traveled work. Instead of sending the aircraft out at regular intervals, regardless of completion, from final assembly to the EMC, Boeing seems to be keeping them in final assembly a bit longer than planned. The only plausible reason is not only to finish off much if not all the traveled work but also to give more time to the Charleston team assembling the mid-body fuselage sections. I have noticed that Boeing is sending aircraft out of final assembly later compared to when these airplanes were expected out. Just last night an Ethiopian 787 that I had expected to move out on Feb. 25th was rolled out to the EMC according to Matt Cawby. Even with the 6 day delay there is still more travelled work to be done on this aircraft. United's 1st 787-9 should load today.
It does appear that Boeing has changed the production system a bit in light of the traveled work. Instead of sending the aircraft out at regular intervals, regardless of completion, from final assembly to the EMC, Boeing seems to be keeping them in final assembly a bit longer than planned. The only plausible reason is not only to finish off much if not all the traveled work but also to give more time to the Charleston team assembling the mid-body fuselage sections. I have noticed that Boeing is sending aircraft out of final assembly later compared to when these airplanes were expected out. Just last night an Ethiopian 787 that I had expected to move out on Feb. 25th was rolled out to the EMC according to Matt Cawby. Even with the 6 day delay there is still more travelled work to be done on this aircraft. United's 1st 787-9 should load today.
Previously, it took Boeing 34 days to complete a 787 on either the main line in 40-26 or the surge line in 40-24. It appears, for now, that the number of days has increased to at least 40 days. We would have to see how long these frames stay at the EMC before being painted.
Additionally, Boeing is spacing out the time it loads a new frame into final assembly. Previously, Boeing loaded a new air frame every one week into Position 1 on either assembly line in Everett. Starting with LN 175, the time between loadings had grown to initially 9 and now about 11 days before a new air frame was loaded.
If this trend holds for the rest of March, then Boeing is effectively building 6 787/month out of Everett. Along with 2 from Charleston, we then could see the total number of aircraft that starts final assembly in March dip to 8/month. This would be a temporary dip in the rate but something that is not surprising given the trouble in Charleston. However it will allow Charleston time to get the the activities in 88-20 back on track and at rate.
Last month, Boeing delivered 4 787s, three to ANA. There has been a moderate uptick, in the 787 flight activity in the last few days. This includes ferrying Charleston built 787s for painting as well as continued production testing. In fact several Qatar aircraft have finally had their customer flights and appear to be ready for delivery. Kenya Airways 1st 787 is ready for its B-1 flight and I expect Air Canada 1st 787 to be ready for delivery before the end of this month.
Additionally, Boeing is spacing out the time it loads a new frame into final assembly. Previously, Boeing loaded a new air frame every one week into Position 1 on either assembly line in Everett. Starting with LN 175, the time between loadings had grown to initially 9 and now about 11 days before a new air frame was loaded.
If this trend holds for the rest of March, then Boeing is effectively building 6 787/month out of Everett. Along with 2 from Charleston, we then could see the total number of aircraft that starts final assembly in March dip to 8/month. This would be a temporary dip in the rate but something that is not surprising given the trouble in Charleston. However it will allow Charleston time to get the the activities in 88-20 back on track and at rate.
Last month, Boeing delivered 4 787s, three to ANA. There has been a moderate uptick, in the 787 flight activity in the last few days. This includes ferrying Charleston built 787s for painting as well as continued production testing. In fact several Qatar aircraft have finally had their customer flights and appear to be ready for delivery. Kenya Airways 1st 787 is ready for its B-1 flight and I expect Air Canada 1st 787 to be ready for delivery before the end of this month.
This what I am expecting for deliveries in March:
Air India - 1
Qatar Airways - 2
United Airlines - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
ILFC - 2 (1 each to Aeromexico and Norwegian)
Hainan - 1
Royal Brunei - 1
Air Canada - 1
Kenya Airways - 1
This is a total of 12 for March but Boeing May be able to deliver 2 more air frames, one each to Qatar and LOT Polish.
787-9 flight testing continues a pace and I still expect that Boeing will finish all certification flight testing for this variant by May followed by formal FAA certification in June and 1st delivery to Air New Zealand in July. That aircraft is still in final assembly in Everett and should be rolled out sometime this week. ANA's first 787-9, ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was rolled out of paint and I expect this aircraft to join the flight test program where it would do functionality and reliability testing. This could start as early as late March but April is more realistic time frame.
I expect the Air New Zealand airframe, ZB003 (LN 169, ZB-NZE) to be transferred over to the EMC where it will finish off travelled work as well as start the change incorporation process where changes mandated by the FAA certification will be made to bring the aircraft up to standard. Boeing will need to have this aircraft ready in June if it hopes to deliver it in July.
Monday, February 24, 2014
Space Launch System Videos
Ok so here's a change from the usual 787 postings. I came a across these really cool animations of the Space Launch System. The first video show the individual umbilicals attached to the SLS and their functions during liftoff. The second video is an animation of the roll out and launch of the SLS. Enjoy!
Sunday, February 23, 2014
787 Traveled Work: How much time is needed?
The issues in Charleston has forced Boeing to carve out more time to prepare the 787s currently coming out of final assembly. Thus far it is unclear how much more time is needed to finish all the traveled work in this posting I'll try to take a stab at determining how much more time is needed.
Usually, Boeing send the aircraft straight from final assembly to the paint hangar with perhaps a couple of days outside. With the current situation, Boeing is now sending airplanes directly to the EMC to finish assembly activities before they are painted.
Using my data along with Matt Cawby's Tweets of 787 movements out of the paint hangar, I was able to get an idea of time from roll out from final assembly through painting. Matt Cawby has been tweeting when 787s exit final assembly as well as when they come out of the paint hangar. For the last few 787s I've created a table that explores the additional time that is needed to finish these aircraft. I am assuming that when the aircraft is transferred from the EMC (Everett Modification Center) to the flightline or the paint hangar, that it is completed all necessary travelled work and is now resuming the normal production sequence to prepare it for first flight and eventual delivery to the customer.
According to the data, the average time between roll out of the aircraft fro final assembly to the time it is taken out of the paint hangar or is observed on the flightline is about 15 days. Painting itself would take anywhere from 4 to 7 days depending on the complexity of the scheme being applied and the customer's satisfaction with the paint job.
Using these assumptions along with observed data, it is reasonable to assume that the aircraft spends anywhere from 10 to 12 days at the EMC to finish off the traveled work resulting from the problems at Charleston. I do expect that this should go down as the number of contracted workers increase and reduce the number of jobs over the next few months.
The most interesting question is will Boeing need to hire these contracted employees on a permanent basis in South Carolina in order to stay at rate (not to mention to assist when they increase to 12 and eventually 14 aircraft per month)? If so, one has to wonder what this would cost Boeing and the 787 program in terms of profitability.
Usually, Boeing send the aircraft straight from final assembly to the paint hangar with perhaps a couple of days outside. With the current situation, Boeing is now sending airplanes directly to the EMC to finish assembly activities before they are painted.
Using my data along with Matt Cawby's Tweets of 787 movements out of the paint hangar, I was able to get an idea of time from roll out from final assembly through painting. Matt Cawby has been tweeting when 787s exit final assembly as well as when they come out of the paint hangar. For the last few 787s I've created a table that explores the additional time that is needed to finish these aircraft. I am assuming that when the aircraft is transferred from the EMC (Everett Modification Center) to the flightline or the paint hangar, that it is completed all necessary travelled work and is now resuming the normal production sequence to prepare it for first flight and eventual delivery to the customer.
According to the data, the average time between roll out of the aircraft fro final assembly to the time it is taken out of the paint hangar or is observed on the flightline is about 15 days. Painting itself would take anywhere from 4 to 7 days depending on the complexity of the scheme being applied and the customer's satisfaction with the paint job.
Using these assumptions along with observed data, it is reasonable to assume that the aircraft spends anywhere from 10 to 12 days at the EMC to finish off the traveled work resulting from the problems at Charleston. I do expect that this should go down as the number of contracted workers increase and reduce the number of jobs over the next few months.
The most interesting question is will Boeing need to hire these contracted employees on a permanent basis in South Carolina in order to stay at rate (not to mention to assist when they increase to 12 and eventually 14 aircraft per month)? If so, one has to wonder what this would cost Boeing and the 787 program in terms of profitability.
Хоккей pic.twitter.com/h3OgFC9yg8
— Йополис (@YopolisNews) February 19, 2014
Czarina Putin contemplating the effect of traveled work on the 787 program.
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Boeing delivers 4 787 in January but still plauged with problems in Charleston
Boeing delivered a total of 4 787s in January a decrease of 7 month over month from December's 11 deliveries. I expected that the number was going to be lower due to the holidays in December which is a time that production usually takes a break company wide. However, I was forecasting 8 deliveries some of which were just recently delivered aircraft in early February. I was expecting that Qatar would have taken deliveries last month but apparently they are not ready to take possession. Qatar has been notoriously picky in their inspections of the aircraft. There are 4 that are complete at Charleston and outside on the flightline.
So far in February, Boeing has delivered 3 . Almost midway through the month of February, Boeing hasn't conducted too many B-1 flights of the aircraft that have rolled out of the final assembly buildings. In fact Boeing has conducted only 3 first flights of production 787s. Many of the 787s coming out of 40-24 or 40-26 went to the flightline or the EMC without paint. This is to finish any traveled work that was left un done due to the issues in Charleston's mid-body assembly building. While those tasks that went uncompleted in Charleston were probably finished during final assembly, that meant pushing other final assembly tasks to a time after the aircraft rolled out. This is probably the work that went on the flightline and at the EMC. Some of those planes have finished the traveled work and have been or are currently being painted. So far it looks like the 787s that are rolling out needs to spend one more week to finish the traveled work at the EMC before releasing the aircraft to go to paint and subsequent pre-delivery ground and flight tests. Boeing is continuing to move the mid-body fuselages through each of the assembly cells in 88-20 and then deliver them to Everett of Charleston's 88-30 building for final assembly regardless of the shape that they're in and the amount of work that is left to be done. Boeing is more intent on maintaining rate of 10/month and the traveled work will be done after the airplanes have moved out of final assembly. While this may be all well and good in the short term it could have long lasting impacts if the issues in 88-20 are not corrected quickly. Deliveries could certainly fall behind and the FAA may inquire as to what exactly in going on in Charleston and why.
The key things to watch for is if Boeing is still sending airplanes that had just been rolled out to paint, the flightline or the EMC. If it is the later, then we need to see how long they spend at the EMC before going to paint and then on to the flightline.
Boeing is attributing the flow issues in Charleston's 88-20 mid-body assembly building to the introduction of the 787-9 as well as the increase in rate to 10/month. However, Boeing should have also attributed the chaos in 88-20 to the laying off of the contract workers in Charleston months earlier. Workers that they are now hiring back to get the mid-body assembly back on track.
Given Boeing's plans for Charleston especially with the planned rate increases in the coming years and if the rumors of the plant taking on all 787-10 assembly is true, then Boeing will need to have these contract workers around for a very long time to come.
Given the unpredictability of the issues that Boeing with the program especially with regards to the mid-body fuselage and the knock on effects that the traveled work has caused to downstream planning of testing and delivery activities, it is hard to predict how many 787s will be eventually delivered this month...and we're already near mid-month.
This may crimp Boeing's plan to deliver 110 aircraft this year though it is still yet too early to arrive at that conclusion definitively. Boeing is struggling to get dispatch reliability to over 99% and currently they are at over 98% which is good but not satisfactory to Boeing or the 787 operators.
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So far in February, Boeing has delivered 3 . Almost midway through the month of February, Boeing hasn't conducted too many B-1 flights of the aircraft that have rolled out of the final assembly buildings. In fact Boeing has conducted only 3 first flights of production 787s. Many of the 787s coming out of 40-24 or 40-26 went to the flightline or the EMC without paint. This is to finish any traveled work that was left un done due to the issues in Charleston's mid-body assembly building. While those tasks that went uncompleted in Charleston were probably finished during final assembly, that meant pushing other final assembly tasks to a time after the aircraft rolled out. This is probably the work that went on the flightline and at the EMC. Some of those planes have finished the traveled work and have been or are currently being painted. So far it looks like the 787s that are rolling out needs to spend one more week to finish the traveled work at the EMC before releasing the aircraft to go to paint and subsequent pre-delivery ground and flight tests. Boeing is continuing to move the mid-body fuselages through each of the assembly cells in 88-20 and then deliver them to Everett of Charleston's 88-30 building for final assembly regardless of the shape that they're in and the amount of work that is left to be done. Boeing is more intent on maintaining rate of 10/month and the traveled work will be done after the airplanes have moved out of final assembly. While this may be all well and good in the short term it could have long lasting impacts if the issues in 88-20 are not corrected quickly. Deliveries could certainly fall behind and the FAA may inquire as to what exactly in going on in Charleston and why.
The key things to watch for is if Boeing is still sending airplanes that had just been rolled out to paint, the flightline or the EMC. If it is the later, then we need to see how long they spend at the EMC before going to paint and then on to the flightline.
Boeing is attributing the flow issues in Charleston's 88-20 mid-body assembly building to the introduction of the 787-9 as well as the increase in rate to 10/month. However, Boeing should have also attributed the chaos in 88-20 to the laying off of the contract workers in Charleston months earlier. Workers that they are now hiring back to get the mid-body assembly back on track.
Given Boeing's plans for Charleston especially with the planned rate increases in the coming years and if the rumors of the plant taking on all 787-10 assembly is true, then Boeing will need to have these contract workers around for a very long time to come.
Given the unpredictability of the issues that Boeing with the program especially with regards to the mid-body fuselage and the knock on effects that the traveled work has caused to downstream planning of testing and delivery activities, it is hard to predict how many 787s will be eventually delivered this month...and we're already near mid-month.
This may crimp Boeing's plan to deliver 110 aircraft this year though it is still yet too early to arrive at that conclusion definitively. Boeing is struggling to get dispatch reliability to over 99% and currently they are at over 98% which is good but not satisfactory to Boeing or the 787 operators.
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Monday, January 27, 2014
Boeing Charleston to undergo FAA audit while production heats up. January 787 deliveries look to come in low.
UPDATE: The FAA sent out this response to the audit: "The FAA will conduct a regularly-scheduled audit of the Boeing Commercial Aircraft production system in February. Boeing’s North Charleston, SC facility will be included in the audit. Five FAA inspectors will assess that Boeing’s systems are in compliance with the regulations for the manufacture of airplanes."
UPDATE: Boeing emailed me this response: "This routine audit, conducted about every two years at multiple Boeing locations, is part of Boeing maintaining our Production Certificate 700. It’s not focused solely on Boeing South Carolina."
FAA Audit at Boeing Charleston
Sources revealed that Boeing Charleston will be undergoing an extensive audit, possibly one of the largest in Boeing's history, as the FAA examines Boeing's production practices. Among the items that the FAA will be examining will be tool accountability, lost or missing tools, calibration dates, mismatched tools/tooling kits among others. There will be 5 inspectors who will be at Charleston starting January 27th and remaining there until February 14th. They will be looking over the shoulders of the manufacturing techs (MT) at the Charleston plant and will be quizzing them about the processes that they are using and how those specs and engineering were authorized. It was revealed by the Wall Street Journal that Boeing is adding 300 contract workers and may increase that number to as many as 1,000.
Sources described the production of the mid body fuselage section built in building 88-20 as "a complete disaster, a cluster fuck." This is a very worrying development to Charleston workers as some of them feel that the FAA may shut them down because of issues the audit may uncover. 88-20 is clearly the weakest link in Boeing 787 production chain as it is this unit that produces the mid bodies for all 787s whether they are built in Everett or Charleston. Some MTs from the final assembly line in 88-30 have been sent to 88-20 to help reduce the strain that this area is facing. Boeing has promised its MTs an 8% bonus if they can get the 16,000 jobs that they are behind on down to 8,000 by the end of February. If the issues in 88-20 worsen it could lead to slow down of 787 production and deliveries at least for this year. This is not the first time that the South Carolina plant had undergone an audit. In June 2008 the FAA audited the 88-20 plant which was then under the 50/50 joint venture between Boeing and Alenia Aeronautica of Italy known as Global Aeronautica. The audit uncovered lax manufacturing standards and forced a 24 hour shut down of the plant to go over proper procedures regarding FoD.
I have reached out the FAA and Boeing Charleston for comment. The FAA will inquire and get back to me. I will update this post if I hear back from either party.
Meanwhile 787s continue to be built...
The FAA audit notwithstanding, Boeing continues to build 787s at both plants at a rate of 10/month. This month Everett will have started assembly on 9 Dreamliners and Charleston would have started final assembly on 2 aircraft. Boeing has rolled out quite a few unpainted 787s over the last few weeks onto the flightline. Usually they go straight to paint after being rolled out. I'm not sure why they changed this though Boeing test flight could be doing some ground testing before the aircraft is painted. Whether the 10/month rate can be sustained due to the production issues in Charleston, particularly the mid body assembly in 88-20 remains unclear though this is why Boeing has bought in the contract workers.
Boeing did rollout the first 787 to be produced at the 10/month rate though they said that the aircraft is L/N 155 (ZA564) which is a 787 for ILFC being leased to Aeromexico. Back in November when Boeing announced that they had started production on the first 787 at 10/month (through Randy Tinseth's Blog) they did not identified the aircraft that had the distinction of being built at that rate. I was able to identify the aircraft as L/N 152 (ZA188) for Japan Airlines which sources told me was loaded into the first position and started final assembly on Nov. 14, 2013. When asked about the apparent discrepancy, a Boeing spokesperson insisted that the aircraft that was loaded on Nov. 14th was L/N 155 not L/N 152. I stand by my belief that the aircraft that kicked of the 10/month production rate is L/N 152.
First deliveries in 2014
Boeing has already delivered 1 787 this month to ANA and is in the process of delivering United's 9th 787 on Jan. 27th. I was expecting quite a few more by now to be handed over. ZA469 (LN 129, A7-BCH) for Qatar Airways spent a long time being painted (and repainted), first in Ft. Worth, then at Boeing's paint facility in Portland, OR. I assumed that it was now ready to finish production flight tests and be handed over to the customer but it has been hauled back inside 88-30 in Charleston for unknown reasons. There are several more Qatar Airways 787s waiting to fly and to be painted but are sitting on the flightline at Boeing Charleston. It appears that Boeing will not deliver any 787s to Qatar Airways this month. They are trying to get a couple more to ANA as well as to the first BBJ customer - the Saudi Finance Ministry. I also believe Boeing can deliver one to ILFC which will leased as a business jet to Sky Blue Holdings. Boeing may be able to deliver one (maybe 2) to Air India as ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) has been conduction flights as of late. ZA231 (LN 26, VT-ANB) conducted flight tests last month but none this month. I'm not sure if ZA231 is ready to be delivered. A very real reason for the slower deliveries is the weather in Everett probably played havoc with the flight tests as Everett suffered from several days of foggy conditions. There were no test flights for quite a few days as the fog lingered around Paine Field.
Full 787 List
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787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
UPDATE: Boeing emailed me this response: "This routine audit, conducted about every two years at multiple Boeing locations, is part of Boeing maintaining our Production Certificate 700. It’s not focused solely on Boeing South Carolina."
FAA Audit at Boeing Charleston
Sources revealed that Boeing Charleston will be undergoing an extensive audit, possibly one of the largest in Boeing's history, as the FAA examines Boeing's production practices. Among the items that the FAA will be examining will be tool accountability, lost or missing tools, calibration dates, mismatched tools/tooling kits among others. There will be 5 inspectors who will be at Charleston starting January 27th and remaining there until February 14th. They will be looking over the shoulders of the manufacturing techs (MT) at the Charleston plant and will be quizzing them about the processes that they are using and how those specs and engineering were authorized. It was revealed by the Wall Street Journal that Boeing is adding 300 contract workers and may increase that number to as many as 1,000.
Sources described the production of the mid body fuselage section built in building 88-20 as "a complete disaster, a cluster fuck." This is a very worrying development to Charleston workers as some of them feel that the FAA may shut them down because of issues the audit may uncover. 88-20 is clearly the weakest link in Boeing 787 production chain as it is this unit that produces the mid bodies for all 787s whether they are built in Everett or Charleston. Some MTs from the final assembly line in 88-30 have been sent to 88-20 to help reduce the strain that this area is facing. Boeing has promised its MTs an 8% bonus if they can get the 16,000 jobs that they are behind on down to 8,000 by the end of February. If the issues in 88-20 worsen it could lead to slow down of 787 production and deliveries at least for this year. This is not the first time that the South Carolina plant had undergone an audit. In June 2008 the FAA audited the 88-20 plant which was then under the 50/50 joint venture between Boeing and Alenia Aeronautica of Italy known as Global Aeronautica. The audit uncovered lax manufacturing standards and forced a 24 hour shut down of the plant to go over proper procedures regarding FoD.
I have reached out the FAA and Boeing Charleston for comment. The FAA will inquire and get back to me. I will update this post if I hear back from either party.
Meanwhile 787s continue to be built...
The FAA audit notwithstanding, Boeing continues to build 787s at both plants at a rate of 10/month. This month Everett will have started assembly on 9 Dreamliners and Charleston would have started final assembly on 2 aircraft. Boeing has rolled out quite a few unpainted 787s over the last few weeks onto the flightline. Usually they go straight to paint after being rolled out. I'm not sure why they changed this though Boeing test flight could be doing some ground testing before the aircraft is painted. Whether the 10/month rate can be sustained due to the production issues in Charleston, particularly the mid body assembly in 88-20 remains unclear though this is why Boeing has bought in the contract workers.
Boeing did rollout the first 787 to be produced at the 10/month rate though they said that the aircraft is L/N 155 (ZA564) which is a 787 for ILFC being leased to Aeromexico. Back in November when Boeing announced that they had started production on the first 787 at 10/month (through Randy Tinseth's Blog) they did not identified the aircraft that had the distinction of being built at that rate. I was able to identify the aircraft as L/N 152 (ZA188) for Japan Airlines which sources told me was loaded into the first position and started final assembly on Nov. 14, 2013. When asked about the apparent discrepancy, a Boeing spokesperson insisted that the aircraft that was loaded on Nov. 14th was L/N 155 not L/N 152. I stand by my belief that the aircraft that kicked of the 10/month production rate is L/N 152.
First deliveries in 2014
Boeing has already delivered 1 787 this month to ANA and is in the process of delivering United's 9th 787 on Jan. 27th. I was expecting quite a few more by now to be handed over. ZA469 (LN 129, A7-BCH) for Qatar Airways spent a long time being painted (and repainted), first in Ft. Worth, then at Boeing's paint facility in Portland, OR. I assumed that it was now ready to finish production flight tests and be handed over to the customer but it has been hauled back inside 88-30 in Charleston for unknown reasons. There are several more Qatar Airways 787s waiting to fly and to be painted but are sitting on the flightline at Boeing Charleston. It appears that Boeing will not deliver any 787s to Qatar Airways this month. They are trying to get a couple more to ANA as well as to the first BBJ customer - the Saudi Finance Ministry. I also believe Boeing can deliver one to ILFC which will leased as a business jet to Sky Blue Holdings. Boeing may be able to deliver one (maybe 2) to Air India as ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) has been conduction flights as of late. ZA231 (LN 26, VT-ANB) conducted flight tests last month but none this month. I'm not sure if ZA231 is ready to be delivered. A very real reason for the slower deliveries is the weather in Everett probably played havoc with the flight tests as Everett suffered from several days of foggy conditions. There were no test flights for quite a few days as the fog lingered around Paine Field.
Full 787 List
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Thursday, January 16, 2014
787 Firing Order Updated
The 787 firing order has been updated. The order for L/N 181 to L/N 200 are now listed and doesn't contain too many surprises. This firing order should be for aircraft that will enter final assembly through April (end of April).
Here's a quick breakdown:
New operators:
Thai (leased from ILFC)
Arke (formerly Arkefly, through TUI Travel)
Royal Jordanian
Breakdown:
ANA - 1
BBJ - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 1
Kenya Airways - 2
ILFC - 2
LAN - 2
QANTAS - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Jordanian - 1
TUI Travel - 3
United - 2
Only one 787-9 will be going through production and this aircraft is slated for United Airlines (ZB167).
Full 787 List
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Here's a quick breakdown:
New operators:
Thai (leased from ILFC)
Arke (formerly Arkefly, through TUI Travel)
Royal Jordanian
Breakdown:
ANA - 1
BBJ - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 1
Kenya Airways - 2
ILFC - 2
LAN - 2
QANTAS - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Jordanian - 1
TUI Travel - 3
United - 2
Only one 787-9 will be going through production and this aircraft is slated for United Airlines (ZB167).
Full 787 List
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Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Breaking: JAL 787 experience battery issue. Gases vented though revised system
Boeing is reporting that a JAL 787 experienced a smoke condition that may have come from the venting of a single lithium ion battery cell. The aircraft was on the ground in Tokyo in maintenance. There weren't any passengers on the aircraft at the time but Boeing did say that the revised containment/venting system did work as advertised. JAL said that there was liquid coming from the power pack and that there was fault in the battery and charger. While the info on this is still coming out, one thing that is known that only one of the eight cells in this one battery was effected and it seems, at the moment, that the other seven cells were unaffected by what happened with the other cell. Again this information is preliminary. Boeing redesigned the battery so that any thermal conditions in one cell doesn't spread to the others. It appears that this redesign may have worked. The question, however, still remains as to if this was another battery event and if so, why this cell experienced a thermal event. I don't have any information as to the identity of the aircraft other than it was a JAL 787.
787 issue on ground at Narita appears to involve venting of single battery cell during maintenance. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014
Improvements to 787 battery system appear to have worked as designed. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014
We regret the impact to Japan Airlines & are working with them to return the airplane to service. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014
Today's incident aboard a JAL 787 comes almost exactly one year after the Dreamliner fleet was grounded by global regulators in 2013.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) January 14, 2014
Boeing says no passengers aboard JAL 787 during apparent "venting of a single battery cell." Occurred during maintenance at Narita.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) January 14, 2014
I'll update this post as more information is available.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Air Canada give glimpse of its new 787...and Boeing's revised assembly line
Air Canada posted photos of its first 787, that is due to be delivered later this spring, in assembly in building 40-24. In my last post, I talked about Boeing revised assembly process which now integrates an additional line position for a total of 5. The first position of the assembly process now appears to be a dedicated to assembly of large sub-assemblies.
Specifically the fully assembled wings (with all movable surfaces) is integrated to the main fuselage section in the 1st position. Next to this large sub-assembly is the rear fuselage (sections 47/48) is integrated with the vertical and horizontal stabilizers. The forward fuselage (section 41) is positioned ahead next to the 2nd line position. It is at this second line position where all three fuselage sections will be joined together. Once the second position is cleared the forward fuselage in transferred into the line position, then the main fuselage with the wings attached is moved forward right behind the section 41. The rear fuselage assembly is then shifted to the left and then moved forward to a place behind the main fuselage assembly. The three sections are then joined and all appropriate connections are made before the aircraft is moved to the third line position where it would receive its gear and engines.
The new process is part of Boeing's efforts to reduce the build time for each 787 as well as reduce production costs. It has been reported that Boeing is still assembling 787s at a cost greater than the sales price thus the drive to find efficiencies through efforts like revising the production process as well as programs like "Partnering For Success" will be key to reducing those production costs.
You can see the Air Canada production photos on Facebook by clicking here.
Specifically the fully assembled wings (with all movable surfaces) is integrated to the main fuselage section in the 1st position. Next to this large sub-assembly is the rear fuselage (sections 47/48) is integrated with the vertical and horizontal stabilizers. The forward fuselage (section 41) is positioned ahead next to the 2nd line position. It is at this second line position where all three fuselage sections will be joined together. Once the second position is cleared the forward fuselage in transferred into the line position, then the main fuselage with the wings attached is moved forward right behind the section 41. The rear fuselage assembly is then shifted to the left and then moved forward to a place behind the main fuselage assembly. The three sections are then joined and all appropriate connections are made before the aircraft is moved to the third line position where it would receive its gear and engines.
The new process is part of Boeing's efforts to reduce the build time for each 787 as well as reduce production costs. It has been reported that Boeing is still assembling 787s at a cost greater than the sales price thus the drive to find efficiencies through efforts like revising the production process as well as programs like "Partnering For Success" will be key to reducing those production costs.
You can see the Air Canada production photos on Facebook by clicking here.
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
Boeing achieves 2.8 book to bill on 787 in 2013, readjusts Everett assembly lines
During 2013 Boeing took in 182 787 order (the majority in 787-10) while delivering 65 of them. This equates to a book to bill ratio (a measure of demand) of 2.8. The higher the book to bill the higher the demand for that product. It does remain unclear, however, if Boeing can maintain that kind of performance on the 787. In 2012 the book to bill was 1.09 (50 orders to 46 deliveries). Undoubtedly the addition of the 787-10 helped tremendously as this airplane accounted for 132 of the 182 net orders Boeing took in. Boeing needs to ride the 787-10 wave in 2014 and if the 787-9 meets its performance guarantees, it can spur a new flurry of orders for that airplane as well. Boeing will need to book at least 120 to 130 orders to maintain a healthy book to bill ratio in the coming years. This may prove to be difficult as the A350 will be coming on line as well.
Boeing adds 5th position on assembly lines.
Boeing production machine is getting revved up for the 2014 production year. While producing at 10/month will help drive some cost reductions that they desperately need, Boeing is only re-working the 787 assembly lines. In Everett they have inserted a 5th position into the main production line in 40-26 as well as the surge line in 40-24. Sources say that this position (which is the new position 1) is to allow wing integration work prior to the main wing-body join. This is suppose to say time integrating wing components after the main join. Thus the spreadsheets will show a 5th position for Everett. It does appear that Charleston is already using the same plan as they are also using 5 (out of 8) positions for final assembly of the 787s.
Boeing does look like it will start assembling 11 787s this month but I expect them to be at 10 next month with 2 from Charleston and 8 from Everett. In terms of deliveries in January I can see Boeing delivering about 8 aircraft. Here's my breakdown this month:
Air India - 2
ANA - 3
BBJ - 1
ILFC - 1
Qatar - 1
I was expecting Qatar deliveries to be greater but they have been very particular about the condition of the 787s at delivery and thus these aircraft have been parked at Charleston for a vey long time. Boeing has switched production of the Qatar 787s to Charleston but with the pickiness exhibited by this customer, Boeing may switch it back to Everett.
Lastly, let me leave you with the Tweet of the Day:
Full 787 List
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Boeing adds 5th position on assembly lines.
Boeing production machine is getting revved up for the 2014 production year. While producing at 10/month will help drive some cost reductions that they desperately need, Boeing is only re-working the 787 assembly lines. In Everett they have inserted a 5th position into the main production line in 40-26 as well as the surge line in 40-24. Sources say that this position (which is the new position 1) is to allow wing integration work prior to the main wing-body join. This is suppose to say time integrating wing components after the main join. Thus the spreadsheets will show a 5th position for Everett. It does appear that Charleston is already using the same plan as they are also using 5 (out of 8) positions for final assembly of the 787s.
Boeing does look like it will start assembling 11 787s this month but I expect them to be at 10 next month with 2 from Charleston and 8 from Everett. In terms of deliveries in January I can see Boeing delivering about 8 aircraft. Here's my breakdown this month:
Air India - 2
ANA - 3
BBJ - 1
ILFC - 1
Qatar - 1
I was expecting Qatar deliveries to be greater but they have been very particular about the condition of the 787s at delivery and thus these aircraft have been parked at Charleston for a vey long time. Boeing has switched production of the Qatar 787s to Charleston but with the pickiness exhibited by this customer, Boeing may switch it back to Everett.
Lastly, let me leave you with the Tweet of the Day:
Dear sneeze, If you are going to happen, happen. Don’t put a stupid look on my face and leave it at that. Sincerely, I look like an idiot.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) January 8, 2014
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Friday, January 3, 2014
787 Program: 2014 Look ahead
What's in store for the 787 program in 2014. A lot it appears. Let's take a look at what is expected for this program:
787-9
Undoubtedly, the biggest development that will come in 2014 is the certification and entry into service of the larger version of the 787, the 787-9. This aircraft is already in the middle of certification testing by Boeing with FAA personnel on board observing. First delivery of ZB003 is scheduled for sometime in July of 2014 which indicates that Boeing should be complete with testing around May of this year. The FAA should give its blessing around mid to late June and first delivery in July to Air New Zealand. Boeing is giving ANZ a preview as it flies ZB002 to Auckland tonight where it will be toured by company brass and local media. ZB002 will be eventually delivered to ANZ after it is refurbished at the conclusion of the testing and certification program (along with ZB001).
All indications are that the testing is going well though there hasn't been much official word from Boeing regarding progress. ANZ plans to use the aircraft on routes from Auckland to Perth, Christchurch, Shanghai and Tokyo with the 3 aircraft they expect in 2014. ANZ is expected to stat service on Oct. 15, 2014 on the Auckland-Perth route.
Dispatch Issues
Boeing has been bombarded with reliability issues which have caused numerous headaches for their customers and the flying passengers. Boeing has promised to get these issues down over the next 6 months so that the dispatch rates of the 787 will be at or better of the 777 rates. Most of the issues seem to emanate from software and the frequency of warning messages that the pilots receive in the cockpit. This has caused a lot of needless delays and cancellations. Boeing is planning a major software change that will be certified by the middle of 2014 to reduce these false warning messages. There are some who believe that this will not be the answer or the end to the reliability issues of the 787.
Production
Boeing has stated that 787 production has hit the promised goal of 10/month. December was a slower month due to the Holiday season but I do expect that they will start to pick up the production pace this month at the 10/month rate. I do expect that Charleston will be at 2/month while Everett will split the 8/month between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.
787-10
Now that the 787-10 has launched, Boeing will be pouring engineering resources into the design of the aircraft this year. I expect the firm configuration to be completed next year with detailed design in 2016, final assembly of first flight of the first 787-10 in 2017 and delivery in 2018. I do expect more order for the 787-10 but I think many of them will come in the form of conversions or exercising options and purchase rights.
Deliveries
Now that Boeing is hitting a rate of 10/month, this begs the questions of how many can they deliver in 2014. In terms of new builds, I can see Boeing delivering around 100 to 110 aircraft. Remember, the production rate is vastly different from the delivery rate which is still not stable. In terms of the aircraft working their way through change incorporation, I do believe Boeing can deliver around 7 to 9 aircraft. This is a huge year over yer increase in deliveries but Boeing needs to execute if they want to regain integrity in the program.
There will be some new customers for the 787 this year. Many are publicly known but there are some operators who will be receiving the aircraft on a lease basis. Here is a list of airlines that will be taking their first 787s this year, though it is not a comprehensive list.
Carrier
Air Canada
Air New Zealand
American Airlines
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
BBJ-Saudi Ministry of Finance
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian Airlines
Scoot Pte Ltd
Virgin Atlantic Airways
Xiamen Airlines
There are some current customers who will take their first 787-9 this year including ANA and JAL
Full 787 List
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Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
787-9
Undoubtedly, the biggest development that will come in 2014 is the certification and entry into service of the larger version of the 787, the 787-9. This aircraft is already in the middle of certification testing by Boeing with FAA personnel on board observing. First delivery of ZB003 is scheduled for sometime in July of 2014 which indicates that Boeing should be complete with testing around May of this year. The FAA should give its blessing around mid to late June and first delivery in July to Air New Zealand. Boeing is giving ANZ a preview as it flies ZB002 to Auckland tonight where it will be toured by company brass and local media. ZB002 will be eventually delivered to ANZ after it is refurbished at the conclusion of the testing and certification program (along with ZB001).
All indications are that the testing is going well though there hasn't been much official word from Boeing regarding progress. ANZ plans to use the aircraft on routes from Auckland to Perth, Christchurch, Shanghai and Tokyo with the 3 aircraft they expect in 2014. ANZ is expected to stat service on Oct. 15, 2014 on the Auckland-Perth route.
Dispatch Issues
Boeing has been bombarded with reliability issues which have caused numerous headaches for their customers and the flying passengers. Boeing has promised to get these issues down over the next 6 months so that the dispatch rates of the 787 will be at or better of the 777 rates. Most of the issues seem to emanate from software and the frequency of warning messages that the pilots receive in the cockpit. This has caused a lot of needless delays and cancellations. Boeing is planning a major software change that will be certified by the middle of 2014 to reduce these false warning messages. There are some who believe that this will not be the answer or the end to the reliability issues of the 787.
Production
Boeing has stated that 787 production has hit the promised goal of 10/month. December was a slower month due to the Holiday season but I do expect that they will start to pick up the production pace this month at the 10/month rate. I do expect that Charleston will be at 2/month while Everett will split the 8/month between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.
787-10
Now that the 787-10 has launched, Boeing will be pouring engineering resources into the design of the aircraft this year. I expect the firm configuration to be completed next year with detailed design in 2016, final assembly of first flight of the first 787-10 in 2017 and delivery in 2018. I do expect more order for the 787-10 but I think many of them will come in the form of conversions or exercising options and purchase rights.
Deliveries
Now that Boeing is hitting a rate of 10/month, this begs the questions of how many can they deliver in 2014. In terms of new builds, I can see Boeing delivering around 100 to 110 aircraft. Remember, the production rate is vastly different from the delivery rate which is still not stable. In terms of the aircraft working their way through change incorporation, I do believe Boeing can deliver around 7 to 9 aircraft. This is a huge year over yer increase in deliveries but Boeing needs to execute if they want to regain integrity in the program.
There will be some new customers for the 787 this year. Many are publicly known but there are some operators who will be receiving the aircraft on a lease basis. Here is a list of airlines that will be taking their first 787s this year, though it is not a comprehensive list.
Carrier
Air Canada
Air New Zealand
American Airlines
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
BBJ-Saudi Ministry of Finance
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian Airlines
Scoot Pte Ltd
Virgin Atlantic Airways
Xiamen Airlines
There are some current customers who will take their first 787-9 this year including ANA and JAL
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Thursday, January 2, 2014
787 Program 2013 Year in Review: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
2013 for the 787 program was a mixed bag for Boeing. The program is on a firmer footing compared to a year ago but issues certainly has hit the program hard. Boeing did deliver 63 (by my count, this may increase as Boeing may have made contractual delivery prior to New Years but fly away may occur after New Years Day) 787s in 2013. Currently there are 17 operators and 16 customers of the 787. The delivered fleet count is now 112 aircraft delivered to the 16 customers. Here's my take on the past year:
The Good
Boeing executed the planned increases in production rate to 10/month as promised and they had also launched the 787-10 which promises to be a big seller and has 132 firm orders 6 months after the formal program launch. Boeing's guidance for deliveries in 2013 was more than 60. Boeing has delivered 63 787 but this number may grow as contractual deliveries may have been made prior to January 1, 2014. Lastly, Boeing has started flight testing the 787-9 the larger iteration of the 787-8. There has been no apparent hiccups and flight testing looks to be going very smoothly for this aircraft. Certification testing has begun for both the GE and Rolls Royce powered aircraft. First delivery is still slated for mid 2014.
The Bad
The 787 continues to suffer from teething issues which has impacted customer on time dispatch rates. Numerous customer complaints, some of which were very public (Norwegian). The issues, many of which are traced the software, are expected to be fixed by summertime but it do damage to the 787 brand. The continued teething issues will continue to be a sore point between Boeing and its customers but when the aircraft is flying revenue flights, it is making money for its owners.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
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The Good
Boeing executed the planned increases in production rate to 10/month as promised and they had also launched the 787-10 which promises to be a big seller and has 132 firm orders 6 months after the formal program launch. Boeing's guidance for deliveries in 2013 was more than 60. Boeing has delivered 63 787 but this number may grow as contractual deliveries may have been made prior to January 1, 2014. Lastly, Boeing has started flight testing the 787-9 the larger iteration of the 787-8. There has been no apparent hiccups and flight testing looks to be going very smoothly for this aircraft. Certification testing has begun for both the GE and Rolls Royce powered aircraft. First delivery is still slated for mid 2014.
The Bad
The 787 continues to suffer from teething issues which has impacted customer on time dispatch rates. Numerous customer complaints, some of which were very public (Norwegian). The issues, many of which are traced the software, are expected to be fixed by summertime but it do damage to the 787 brand. The continued teething issues will continue to be a sore point between Boeing and its customers but when the aircraft is flying revenue flights, it is making money for its owners.
The Ugly
The ugly certainly is the lithium ion battery short circuit that caused a fire on a JAL 787 in Boston and a smoke condition on an ANA aircraft that was airborne. The subsequent grounding raised a lot of the certification of the aircraft and the electrical architecture which became the subject of Congressional hearings.
Boeing did devote a tremendous amount of resources to develop a new containment and venting system that would ensure that a fire couldn't go beyond the battery itself. This focus on finding a way to contain a fire without knowing the root cause of the battery overheating was very controversial but not without precedent. Boeing was able to convince the FAA, customers and other international aviation regulators of the effectiveness of the new system that flights resumed in late April and deliveries restarted in May.
In July, Boeing got another fire scare as an Ethiopian 787 that had just completed a flight to London's Heathrow Airport experienced a fire in the rear crown area of the aircraft. British investigators traced the fire to the aircraft's emergency locator transmitter (ELT) but the investigation is still not final. Boeing repaired the aircraft in a closely watched process. There have always been questions as to large composite sections can be repaired. Boeing got this first opportunity and they were apparently successful as the aircraft has returned to service with Ethiopian last month.
Coming Soon: Look ahead to 2014 for the 787 program and my predictions.
In July, Boeing got another fire scare as an Ethiopian 787 that had just completed a flight to London's Heathrow Airport experienced a fire in the rear crown area of the aircraft. British investigators traced the fire to the aircraft's emergency locator transmitter (ELT) but the investigation is still not final. Boeing repaired the aircraft in a closely watched process. There have always been questions as to large composite sections can be repaired. Boeing got this first opportunity and they were apparently successful as the aircraft has returned to service with Ethiopian last month.
Coming Soon: Look ahead to 2014 for the 787 program and my predictions.
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
Monday, December 30, 2013
787-9 to make trip to Australia and New Zealand for testing and marketing
Boeing will be sending a flight test 787-9 to New Zealand and Australia late this week to conduct hot weather testing as well as for marketing purposes. The aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N787FT) will sport the marking of launch customer Air New Zealand when it leaves Boeing Field around January 2nd or 3rd. It is due to arrive in Auckland, NZ around January 4th in the late afternoon where it will remain for 2 days as Boeing and Air New Zealand conduct a marketing program for the larger version of the 787. It'll leave Auckland on Monday Jan. 6th at about 11 AM local time for Brisbane where it will clear customs and then proceed to Alice Springs, Australia landing at about 5 PM local time.
ZB002 will conduct hot weather testing at Alice Springs from January 7th to January 11th. It is unknown if the aircraft will return to the united States immediately after completion of the hot weather tests or if it conduct more market/testing activities will down under.
Testing on the larger 787 variant apparently is going well by all accounts. Boeing has completed the first production 787-9 and should start on the 2nd production aircraft sometime late next month. The fourth 787-9 will participate in F&R testing as well as other testing activities that need to be completed. There are plans to include a 5th 787-9 in the testing process but I'm not sure if it will be ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) which will be the 1st 787-9 delivered to a customer.
Stay tuned for my 7887 2013 year end wrap up coming soon.
ZB002 will conduct hot weather testing at Alice Springs from January 7th to January 11th. It is unknown if the aircraft will return to the united States immediately after completion of the hot weather tests or if it conduct more market/testing activities will down under.
Testing on the larger 787 variant apparently is going well by all accounts. Boeing has completed the first production 787-9 and should start on the 2nd production aircraft sometime late next month. The fourth 787-9 will participate in F&R testing as well as other testing activities that need to be completed. There are plans to include a 5th 787-9 in the testing process but I'm not sure if it will be ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) which will be the 1st 787-9 delivered to a customer.
Stay tuned for my 7887 2013 year end wrap up coming soon.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Boeing makes final 2013 787 delivery push
Boeing has started making its final push to deliver as many commercial jets as possible before the and of the year. As far as the 787, Boeing has thus far delivered 6 aircraft in December, 16 for the 4th quarter, 60 for 2013 and 109 overall since deliveries began over 2 years ago. This includes ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines which is contractually delivered but has not made its delivery flight for unknown reasons. It is expected to flyaway to Tokyo in the next few days.
There are still a number of 787s that are ready of delivery including a trio for China Southern Airlines. It's been a while since these airplanes have taken a flight but I believe the reason is so Boeing and China Southern can have a bit of a splash and conduct a triple delivery on one day prior to year end. Boeing will also deliver one more to QANTAS (Jetstar) which has had 4 flights (maybe one or two more needed) and will deliver the first 787 to be configured as a business jet to the UAE (via ILFC).
It stands to reason that Boeing can deliver 65 787s this year. Their guidance is over 60, thus they'll clearly meet their guidance.
As far as production is concerned, it looks as if Boeing is right now producing at about 9 aircraft/month. There was a hiccup due to a mishap (don't have details) on the main fuselage section for ZA388 (LN 154) for China Southern. that aircraft was loaded today but it did set back the production schedule, according to my calculations, by 18 days. ZA244 (LN 158) for Air India, leap-frogged over ZA388 and started final assembly before ZA388. ZA388 was originally supposed to start final assembly around November 19th. ZA244 was loaded into POS 1 on December 7...an 18 day gap between planned and actual loading of the fuselage sections and an approximately 1 month gap between the loading of ZA244 and ZA472 (LN 150) for Qatar Airways. Boeing Charleston is loading one aircraft approximately every 14 to 15 days or about 2/month. For the record, Jack Jones, VP and general manager of Boeing Charleston says that they are tracking to plan in terms of 787 production. Boeing is loading a 787 roughly every 4 days at Everett and that rate should get a little bit faster. Later on when Charleston is ready to go to 3/month, we should see the period between loadings go up slightly to about 1 airplane ever four and a quarter days.
One interesting thing to note is production quality of the 787 coming off the assembly lines. One way to measure this is to see how many test flights, on average, a Everett-built 787 makes before delivery and compare that to the number of test flights that a Charleston-built 787 makes. Taking out the 2 ferry flights that Boeing has to make to and from Ft. Worth for painting, I find that Charleston-built 787s fly an average of 6.25 flights before they are delivered while Everett-built 787s fly an average of 5.10 flights before delivery. Really just one flight more which in the grand scheme of things is not a whole lot.
A bit of programming note. I will post a 787 2013 year in review around the end of the month or early in January followed by a 2014 look ahead for the program.
Here are couple of links from Boeing's media day at Boeing Charleston:
Post and Courier photo gallery
Post and Courier Article
Charleston Business Journal Article
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
There are still a number of 787s that are ready of delivery including a trio for China Southern Airlines. It's been a while since these airplanes have taken a flight but I believe the reason is so Boeing and China Southern can have a bit of a splash and conduct a triple delivery on one day prior to year end. Boeing will also deliver one more to QANTAS (Jetstar) which has had 4 flights (maybe one or two more needed) and will deliver the first 787 to be configured as a business jet to the UAE (via ILFC).
It stands to reason that Boeing can deliver 65 787s this year. Their guidance is over 60, thus they'll clearly meet their guidance.
As far as production is concerned, it looks as if Boeing is right now producing at about 9 aircraft/month. There was a hiccup due to a mishap (don't have details) on the main fuselage section for ZA388 (LN 154) for China Southern. that aircraft was loaded today but it did set back the production schedule, according to my calculations, by 18 days. ZA244 (LN 158) for Air India, leap-frogged over ZA388 and started final assembly before ZA388. ZA388 was originally supposed to start final assembly around November 19th. ZA244 was loaded into POS 1 on December 7...an 18 day gap between planned and actual loading of the fuselage sections and an approximately 1 month gap between the loading of ZA244 and ZA472 (LN 150) for Qatar Airways. Boeing Charleston is loading one aircraft approximately every 14 to 15 days or about 2/month. For the record, Jack Jones, VP and general manager of Boeing Charleston says that they are tracking to plan in terms of 787 production. Boeing is loading a 787 roughly every 4 days at Everett and that rate should get a little bit faster. Later on when Charleston is ready to go to 3/month, we should see the period between loadings go up slightly to about 1 airplane ever four and a quarter days.
One interesting thing to note is production quality of the 787 coming off the assembly lines. One way to measure this is to see how many test flights, on average, a Everett-built 787 makes before delivery and compare that to the number of test flights that a Charleston-built 787 makes. Taking out the 2 ferry flights that Boeing has to make to and from Ft. Worth for painting, I find that Charleston-built 787s fly an average of 6.25 flights before they are delivered while Everett-built 787s fly an average of 5.10 flights before delivery. Really just one flight more which in the grand scheme of things is not a whole lot.
A bit of programming note. I will post a 787 2013 year in review around the end of the month or early in January followed by a 2014 look ahead for the program.
Here are couple of links from Boeing's media day at Boeing Charleston:
Post and Courier photo gallery
Post and Courier Article
Charleston Business Journal Article
Full 787 List
Current 787 Production List
Delivered 787 List
787 Monthly Delivery Tracking
787 Customer Delivery
787-9 Flight Test Hours
Current 787 Operators
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