Friday, February 24, 2012
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Shanahan talks about 787 at Barclay's Conference
UPDATE (2:30PM): PAt Shanahan also said during the conference that Boeign will start rolling out 787 that will not have any travelled work or need for change incorporaation starting with LN70. Previous Boeing has said this will occur around airplane 63-65.
Pat Shanahan talked up about the accomplishments of the 787 at a Barclays Capital Industrial Select Conference in Miami.
Currently the supply chain is producing at 3.5 planes per month but the final assembly is still at 2.5 per month. The rate on the assembly line is to go up to 3.5 this spring. Boeing expects to start the surge line in June of this year which will allow Boeing to move 787s down the line at a faster pace and allow for the increase in production rate. The surge line will be located in building 40-24 in front of the 767 line. Shanahan also said that the planes are leaving the line more complete. In the past there was 5,000 - 7,000 jobs left to finish when the 787 left the line. Now this number is down to 500 - 1,000 jobs per airplane.
With regarding the shims, Pat Shanahan said that the job of replacing the shims takes about 10 to 14 days per airplane but this work will be done concurrently with other jobs so as not to delay deliveries. The shim issue is just a manufacturing issue and there is no need for any redesign. The shim issue is not an issue for the fleet.
Pat Shanahan talked up about the accomplishments of the 787 at a Barclays Capital Industrial Select Conference in Miami.
Currently the supply chain is producing at 3.5 planes per month but the final assembly is still at 2.5 per month. The rate on the assembly line is to go up to 3.5 this spring. Boeing expects to start the surge line in June of this year which will allow Boeing to move 787s down the line at a faster pace and allow for the increase in production rate. The surge line will be located in building 40-24 in front of the 767 line. Shanahan also said that the planes are leaving the line more complete. In the past there was 5,000 - 7,000 jobs left to finish when the 787 left the line. Now this number is down to 500 - 1,000 jobs per airplane.
With regarding the shims, Pat Shanahan said that the job of replacing the shims takes about 10 to 14 days per airplane but this work will be done concurrently with other jobs so as not to delay deliveries. The shim issue is just a manufacturing issue and there is no need for any redesign. The shim issue is not an issue for the fleet.
Getting close to the finish line
UPDATE (10AM) ZA236 is flying back to Everett today. This is a strong indication that F&R/ETOPs testing is complete. The F&R/ETOPs certification testing for the GEnx-1B powered 787s was based out of Boeing Field. With the airplane heading back to Everett the testing appears complete and this airplane can be released in order to prepare it for delivery to Air India.
Boeing's efforts to complete 787 flight testing with the GEnx-1B engines are close to being completed if they aren't finish already. ZA236 has flown just under 153 flight test hours thus far. The aircraft needed to fly about 150 F&R/ETOPs flight hours to finish the certification program for this version of the 787. Boeing has not confirmed that they are finished with the tests as of yet. The true indication that they are complete is when ZA236 flies back to Everett to finish preparations for delivery to Air India.
As far getting other 787s ready for delivery, there are about 10 787 at the Everett Modification Center that are undergoing change incorporation or shim inspection in the rear fuselage as well as one airplane in 40-24. Three of these airplanes were aircraft that are close to being delivered (to Japan Airlines or ANA) including ZA177 (LN23, JA822J), ZA179 (LN33, JA225J) and ZA117 (LN42, JA806A). Once these airplanes are inspected and repaired (if needed) then they will continue they typical preparations for delivery. The list of 787s at EMC is below with the locations highlighted in green. These are the airplanes I anticipate will be the next few that will be delivered. Interestingly enough these include a few of the very early build airplanes, ZA100 (LN 7), ZA534 (LN 10), and ZA501 (LN 12).
Jim Albaugh, speaking in Singapore has said that up to 55 787s would have to be inspected and repaired for the flaw. To put it in proper context, this would include all the airframes from LN 4 to LN 59, the latter of which is currently in position 1 in 40-26 and just starting final assembly. This number also includes the 5 airframes that have already been delivered to ANA but does not include any airplanes sections that have yet to be delivered to Everett for final assembly.
Boeing's efforts to complete 787 flight testing with the GEnx-1B engines are close to being completed if they aren't finish already. ZA236 has flown just under 153 flight test hours thus far. The aircraft needed to fly about 150 F&R/ETOPs flight hours to finish the certification program for this version of the 787. Boeing has not confirmed that they are finished with the tests as of yet. The true indication that they are complete is when ZA236 flies back to Everett to finish preparations for delivery to Air India.
As far getting other 787s ready for delivery, there are about 10 787 at the Everett Modification Center that are undergoing change incorporation or shim inspection in the rear fuselage as well as one airplane in 40-24. Three of these airplanes were aircraft that are close to being delivered (to Japan Airlines or ANA) including ZA177 (LN23, JA822J), ZA179 (LN33, JA225J) and ZA117 (LN42, JA806A). Once these airplanes are inspected and repaired (if needed) then they will continue they typical preparations for delivery. The list of 787s at EMC is below with the locations highlighted in green. These are the airplanes I anticipate will be the next few that will be delivered. Interestingly enough these include a few of the very early build airplanes, ZA100 (LN 7), ZA534 (LN 10), and ZA501 (LN 12).
Jim Albaugh, speaking in Singapore has said that up to 55 787s would have to be inspected and repaired for the flaw. To put it in proper context, this would include all the airframes from LN 4 to LN 59, the latter of which is currently in position 1 in 40-26 and just starting final assembly. This number also includes the 5 airframes that have already been delivered to ANA but does not include any airplanes sections that have yet to be delivered to Everett for final assembly.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Friday, February 10, 2012
No 787 Deliveries in February
Information just received indicates that while Boeing will be preparing 787s for delivery including the first deliveries of the GEnx-1B powered 787s. However, none of these airplanes will be delivered this month. It looks like these airplanes are being delayed about three and a half weeks.
According to information just received, ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) will be delivered to ANA around March 14th. This aircraft just had its first flight on Feb. 7. Both JA177 (JA822J, L/N 23) and ZA179 (JA825J, L/N 33) are scheduled to be delivered to Japan Airlines around March 24 with ZA179 tentatively scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 13th (ZA177 had its first flight last year).
Lastly, ZA105 (JA808A, L/N 42) is scheduled to make its first flight around Feb. 29th but no delivery date has been set.
Undoubtedly this schedule shift has been caused by the need to check the aft fuselage for improper shimming installation and to take corrective measures if any are needed. Flightblogger has revealed that the inspections would take about three days but any work to correct any problems would take about two weeks per aircraft. This new schedule would corroborate this time estimate.
Meanwhile, Boeing contiues F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA236. On Wednesday/Thursday this aircraft flew a long 19 hour flight essentially Etch-A-Sketching "787" and the Boeing Corporate logo in the skies over the Western and Mid-Western sections of the country. Thus far this aircraft has flown 48.5 hours. It is expected that this airplane needs to fly about 150 hours to finish the certification program for the GEnx powered 787s.
Monday, February 6, 2012
Boeing confirms the start of final testing phase for 787/GEnx certification
Boeing confirmed to me this afternoon that they have indeed started the final phase of certification testing for the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. What is unknown is how many hours Boeing will need to fly this airplane in order to complete this final phase. Boeing is still planning to deliver the first 787s powered by this engine by the end of this month to JAL, though with the recent delamination issues that Flightblogger revealed on Saturday evening, this schedule may well be in doubt though Boeing says this will have no effect on production. Boeing doesn't expect the need to remove major structural assemblies to gain access to the affected area and make repairs to the shim which they have describe as straightforward.
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Boeing starts final 787/GEnx F&R/ETOPs testing?
It looks as if Boeing may have started the final F&R/ETOPS testing for the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787 Dreamliner. ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH), a production standard airplane destined for customer Air India and recently transferred to Boeing Field took off at about 11AM PST from Boeing Field and flew a 6h 40min test flight down and up the Pacific coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California before returning to Boeing Field. It is understood that ZA236 had transferred to Boeing Field was the express purpose of conducting the final F&R/ETOPs tests flights in order to gain final certification for this version of the 787.
It is unknown, at this time, how many hours still need to be flown for the final phases of this test program but when Boeing flew the F&R/ETOPs test for the Rolls Royce powered version of the 787, they ran it to 300 flight test hours with ETOPS testing being done concurrently with the F&R testing on the test flights. Boeing has already run some of hte F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA006, a test airplane which is currently undergoing re-work and refurbishment ot a production standard airplane in San Antonio. The FAA is requiring Boeing to fly some portion of hte F&R/ETOPs testing o na production standard airplane. This testing has been delayed due to technical issues with ZA236, the nature of which is currently unknown.
Assuming that Boeing will still have to fly 300 flight test hours and assuming that half of this testing done by ZA006 is considered complete by the FAA, then Boeing may have to run about 150 flight test hours on ZA236. Assuming about 8 flight test hours per flight that would mean that ZA236 would have to fly 20 days in order to complete final certification flight tests for the GEnx 787. That would leave roughly a week for Boeing to submit the final type certification paperwork to the FAA and to get their final review and approval so that Boeing can begin deliveries to JAL and Air India a the end of this month. This is very tight. Current Boeing plans show have that ZA177 (L/N 23, JA822J) and ZA129 (L/N 33, JA825J) are being prepared for delivery on Feb. 27th with ZA179 scheduled to make its first flight on Feb. 7th. Whether Boeing can hold to this schedule depends on the pace of the F&R/ETOPs testing and any issues that may be revealed as a result of this testing.
Additionally Boeing has an ANA 787, ZA117 (L/N 40, JA806A) tentatively scheduled for delivery around Feb. 19th with a first flight date of Feb. 7th. All these schedules are tentative schedules and may (probably) will change over the course of the next few weeks.
It is unknown, at this time, how many hours still need to be flown for the final phases of this test program but when Boeing flew the F&R/ETOPs test for the Rolls Royce powered version of the 787, they ran it to 300 flight test hours with ETOPS testing being done concurrently with the F&R testing on the test flights. Boeing has already run some of hte F&R/ETOPs testing on ZA006, a test airplane which is currently undergoing re-work and refurbishment ot a production standard airplane in San Antonio. The FAA is requiring Boeing to fly some portion of hte F&R/ETOPs testing o na production standard airplane. This testing has been delayed due to technical issues with ZA236, the nature of which is currently unknown.
Assuming that Boeing will still have to fly 300 flight test hours and assuming that half of this testing done by ZA006 is considered complete by the FAA, then Boeing may have to run about 150 flight test hours on ZA236. Assuming about 8 flight test hours per flight that would mean that ZA236 would have to fly 20 days in order to complete final certification flight tests for the GEnx 787. That would leave roughly a week for Boeing to submit the final type certification paperwork to the FAA and to get their final review and approval so that Boeing can begin deliveries to JAL and Air India a the end of this month. This is very tight. Current Boeing plans show have that ZA177 (L/N 23, JA822J) and ZA129 (L/N 33, JA825J) are being prepared for delivery on Feb. 27th with ZA179 scheduled to make its first flight on Feb. 7th. Whether Boeing can hold to this schedule depends on the pace of the F&R/ETOPs testing and any issues that may be revealed as a result of this testing.
Additionally Boeing has an ANA 787, ZA117 (L/N 40, JA806A) tentatively scheduled for delivery around Feb. 19th with a first flight date of Feb. 7th. All these schedules are tentative schedules and may (probably) will change over the course of the next few weeks.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Another ANA 787 delivered, another being prepared
Lat night a Boeing crew flew out another ANA 787 for ANA destined for Haneda International Airport. This is ZA102, (JA804A, L/N 9) and one of the very early build aircraft that needed extensive re-work and modifications. It will probably be placed in domestic service. This is ANA's 5th 787 and there are two more waiting in the wings.
ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) made an appearance on the Everett flightline after passing the last few months insidethe EMC. Thanks to Johanny who gave us a link to a flickr page maintained by "Simpilot459" which shows this aircraft with lights on at the Compass Rose at Everett. This is scheduled to be the next 787 delivered.
See ZA117
However weather in the Pacific Northwest may become an issue over the next few days that may disrupt the delivery schedule. ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) was scheduled to fly yesterday but was postponed due to a winter storm that is hitting the Pacific Northwest. This storm is expected to dump snow in the region over the next few days. It's unlikely that this plane will fly its B-1 flight until the storm passes or is reduced in intensity. I'm estimating that it probably won't fly until the end of this week. Likewise, ZA117 is supposed to have it's B-1 flight around the 20th but this is looking increasingly unlikely as it was just pulled out of the EMC and will need to have its first engine start and other pre-flight activities done prior to the flight. I can't se this plane flying before the end of next week.
The end result is that deliveries will be delayed due to the storm as it moves the schedule to the right.
ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) made an appearance on the Everett flightline after passing the last few months insidethe EMC. Thanks to Johanny who gave us a link to a flickr page maintained by "Simpilot459" which shows this aircraft with lights on at the Compass Rose at Everett. This is scheduled to be the next 787 delivered.
See ZA117
However weather in the Pacific Northwest may become an issue over the next few days that may disrupt the delivery schedule. ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) was scheduled to fly yesterday but was postponed due to a winter storm that is hitting the Pacific Northwest. This storm is expected to dump snow in the region over the next few days. It's unlikely that this plane will fly its B-1 flight until the storm passes or is reduced in intensity. I'm estimating that it probably won't fly until the end of this week. Likewise, ZA117 is supposed to have it's B-1 flight around the 20th but this is looking increasingly unlikely as it was just pulled out of the EMC and will need to have its first engine start and other pre-flight activities done prior to the flight. I can't se this plane flying before the end of next week.
The end result is that deliveries will be delayed due to the storm as it moves the schedule to the right.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Boeing on verge of starting final GEnx/787 certification tests
UPDATE: Due to a winter storm in Washington State, it looks like ZA236's first flight has been put off. On a related note, ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is now scheduled to leave Everett at 7:15PM local for its delivery flight to Haneda.
A Flightaware alert just went up for BOE 236 this afternoon for takeoff around 1:45pm local time. The significance of this flight is that this is the first flight of the 787 that will undertake the last part of F&R/ETOPs certification testing that is required for FAA type certification of the GE powered 787.
A Flightaware alert just went up for BOE 236 this afternoon for takeoff around 1:45pm local time. The significance of this flight is that this is the first flight of the 787 that will undertake the last part of F&R/ETOPs certification testing that is required for FAA type certification of the GE powered 787.
This important testing was partially done by ZA006 a few months ago but FAA requires that some of the tests also needs to be done by a production standard 787. Boeing assigned ZA236, a 787 destined for Air India. The start of the final phase of this testing was delayed and rumor has it that the delay was attributable to lightning protection around the engine pylons for the GEnx-1B engines.
Today's flight should be a standard Boeing checkout flight and there will probably be a couple
More test flights before final F&R/ETOPs flight formally kick off.
Boeing is hoping to start GE/787 deliveries next month so I anticipate that this test should last 3-4 weeks with the aim of first GE powered 787 delivery to JAL at the end of February. However this is all predicated on all testing going well with no major issues being revealed.
Friday, January 13, 2012
787 flyaways
Tentative word is that ZA104 (JA807A, L/N 41) should leave today at about 6pm. It was officially delivered on the 12th. It will be flying as NH9397 departing for Haneda. Nothing up on Flightaware of yet but there is still a few hours to go.
ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is projected to be delivered today with a tentative flyaway date of January 16 at 7:15PM. It will also fly to Haneda as NH9397.
ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is projected to be delivered today with a tentative flyaway date of January 16 at 7:15PM. It will also fly to Haneda as NH9397.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
January 787 delivery update part 2
I just got this from a source but it may change depending on conditions at Everett. ZA104 (JA807A, L/N 41) may have been contractually delivered on Tuesday, January 10th. It may flyaway to Haneda Tokyo today, January 12th at about 6PM local time if delivery has been indeed made a couple days ago. Typically the flyaway is a couple days after contractual delivery though it varies from customer to customer and particular circumstances a t the time.
ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is scheduled to be delivered today and may flyaway a couple of days from now. There were no further test flights of both aforementioned aircraft since January 10th.
ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) is still scheduled (tentatively) for delivery on the 30th but this should be taken with a grain of salt as the aircraft has not appeared on the flightline yet.
Further I've gotten information that ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) may make its first flight around Jan. 16th though this is still up in the air (so to speak). This aircraft is to conduct the final portion of F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787 for certification purposes. If Boeing is able to get this part of the program completed in time with certification of of the GEnx 787s then They may be able to deliver two GEnx 787s starting in February. One each would go to Japan Airlines (ZA177, JA822J, L/N 22) and Air India (ZA236, VT-ANH, L/N 35). Boeing also has a 787 penciled in for ANA (ZA105, JA808A, L/N 42) next month.
There are no definitive delivery dates for these airplanes for obvious reasons and these airplanes themselves may not deliver next month due to continued issues revolving the amount of re-work and the allocation of resources to effectively deal with the amount of work. there should be further clarification of the 787 deliveries on about two weeks when Boeing has it's 2011 earnings conference call.
ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is scheduled to be delivered today and may flyaway a couple of days from now. There were no further test flights of both aforementioned aircraft since January 10th.
ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) is still scheduled (tentatively) for delivery on the 30th but this should be taken with a grain of salt as the aircraft has not appeared on the flightline yet.
Further I've gotten information that ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) may make its first flight around Jan. 16th though this is still up in the air (so to speak). This aircraft is to conduct the final portion of F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787 for certification purposes. If Boeing is able to get this part of the program completed in time with certification of of the GEnx 787s then They may be able to deliver two GEnx 787s starting in February. One each would go to Japan Airlines (ZA177, JA822J, L/N 22) and Air India (ZA236, VT-ANH, L/N 35). Boeing also has a 787 penciled in for ANA (ZA105, JA808A, L/N 42) next month.
There are no definitive delivery dates for these airplanes for obvious reasons and these airplanes themselves may not deliver next month due to continued issues revolving the amount of re-work and the allocation of resources to effectively deal with the amount of work. there should be further clarification of the 787 deliveries on about two weeks when Boeing has it's 2011 earnings conference call.
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Additional January 787 delivery information
Ok this is coming to me from another source but now we have three Dreamliner deliveries coming up though this is all tentative. Here's the situation now and it seems to be improving:
JA804A (ZA102, L/N 9) to deliver on Jan. 9
JA807A (ZA104, L/N 41) to deliver on Jan. 11
JA806A (ZA117, L/N 40, first flight on Jan. 20th, deliver on Jan. 30
This information is regarded as preliminary as there can unforeseen issues to can derail any of these milestones. Also note that these dates are not the dates that ANA flies them to Japan but dates where contractual delivery is made and money has changed hands.
JA804A (ZA102, L/N 9) to deliver on Jan. 9
JA807A (ZA104, L/N 41) to deliver on Jan. 11
JA806A (ZA117, L/N 40, first flight on Jan. 20th, deliver on Jan. 30
This information is regarded as preliminary as there can unforeseen issues to can derail any of these milestones. Also note that these dates are not the dates that ANA flies them to Japan but dates where contractual delivery is made and money has changed hands.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Fourth 787 to deliver soon
ANA's 4th 787, JA807A (ZA104, L/N 41) is scheduled to flyaway on Jan. 10 around 6PM local time, according to the latest schedule, as NH9397. This means that the offical handover should occur within a couple days before that. This all assumes that there are no other issues with the aircraft.
There is still no word on delivery and flyaway of JA804A (ZA102, L/N 9) but thoughts are it should be in around the middle of this month.
Dominic Gates has a few more details regarding the delays in the 787 deliveries in his article that came out this morning:
Dominic Gates: Boeing delivers more, and less, in 2011
There is still no word on delivery and flyaway of JA804A (ZA102, L/N 9) but thoughts are it should be in around the middle of this month.
Dominic Gates has a few more details regarding the delays in the 787 deliveries in his article that came out this morning:
Dominic Gates: Boeing delivers more, and less, in 2011
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
JA805A flying out tonight; JA807A a maybe
UPDATE: It appears that ZA104 will not be going anywhere due to ongoing tech issues. This aircraft did fly today and will also fly tomorrow. There should be more clarification on its status later this week. Currently both this aircraft and ZA102 are scheduled for delivery in January but I do expect at least one more 787 to be delivered this month. Currently NH9397 has left on its delivery flight to Tokyo.
According to Flightaware, NH9397 (also known as ZA116, JA805A, L/N 31) will flying out to Japan on its delivery flight at 6 pm Pacific Time. According to sources this aircraft should be parked at gate 206 when it arrive at Haneda International Airport tomorrow morning.
The same sources said that NH9399 (also known as ZA104, JA807A, L/N 41) is scheduled to leave Everett at 7:15PM Pacific time and will be parked at gate 205 when it arrives at Haneda. ZA104 took an earlier flight around the Washington State area supposedly by ANA pilots so it is unknown if this plane has actually been delivered.
These two airplanes are fitted with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines which brings fuel consumption to within 1% of promised specifications. These airplanes will be employed on ANA's international routes beginning with Tokyo-Beijing later this month followed by Tokyo-Frankfurt next month.
In related news, Flightblogger posted this afternoon on the 787's delivery issues
According to Flightaware, NH9397 (also known as ZA116, JA805A, L/N 31) will flying out to Japan on its delivery flight at 6 pm Pacific Time. According to sources this aircraft should be parked at gate 206 when it arrive at Haneda International Airport tomorrow morning.
The same sources said that NH9399 (also known as ZA104, JA807A, L/N 41) is scheduled to leave Everett at 7:15PM Pacific time and will be parked at gate 205 when it arrives at Haneda. ZA104 took an earlier flight around the Washington State area supposedly by ANA pilots so it is unknown if this plane has actually been delivered.
These two airplanes are fitted with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines which brings fuel consumption to within 1% of promised specifications. These airplanes will be employed on ANA's international routes beginning with Tokyo-Beijing later this month followed by Tokyo-Frankfurt next month.
In related news, Flightblogger posted this afternoon on the 787's delivery issues
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Updated 787 info...no deliveries till Jan. 4th
UPDATE: The flyaway (from Everett) should occur on the 4th for 805A and 807A which means delivery (formal paper signing and transfer of money) should occur by the 3rd of January.
Just got a message as well as saw a posting on an airliners.net forum that all three 787s that were due to be delivered around now have "gone tech" meaning there is a maintenance related issue with all three airplanes.
JA805A (L/N 31, ZA116) was supposed to depart Everett 2 days ago and is now schedule to be flown out on Jan. 4th in an evening depature. JA807A (L/N 41, ZA104) will fly out the same day a little later after JA805A has left(it was to deliver on Dec. 30th and fly out a couple days later).
JA804A's (L/N 9, ZA102) delivery was also scheduled for Dec. 30th (fly out a couple days later) but also cancelled though for unknown reasons. It is not known when it will be ready for delivery though this aircraft has flown as recently as Dec. 30th (as had ZA104).
Currently there are no other 78 deliveries scheduled in January but this doesn't mean that Boeing will not deliver any more beyond the two aforementioned aircraft. The situation is very fluid and it is unknown if the issues affecting these two aircraft is something more endemic throughout all the 787s or if this a one off situation.
Just got a message as well as saw a posting on an airliners.net forum that all three 787s that were due to be delivered around now have "gone tech" meaning there is a maintenance related issue with all three airplanes.
JA805A (L/N 31, ZA116) was supposed to depart Everett 2 days ago and is now schedule to be flown out on Jan. 4th in an evening depature. JA807A (L/N 41, ZA104) will fly out the same day a little later after JA805A has left(it was to deliver on Dec. 30th and fly out a couple days later).
JA804A's (L/N 9, ZA102) delivery was also scheduled for Dec. 30th (fly out a couple days later) but also cancelled though for unknown reasons. It is not known when it will be ready for delivery though this aircraft has flown as recently as Dec. 30th (as had ZA104).
Currently there are no other 78 deliveries scheduled in January but this doesn't mean that Boeing will not deliver any more beyond the two aforementioned aircraft. The situation is very fluid and it is unknown if the issues affecting these two aircraft is something more endemic throughout all the 787s or if this a one off situation.
Dec. 31st - no sign of further 787 deliveries
Today is December 31st, 2011 and there has been no further evidence of any other 787 deliveries beyond the ones made in September and October.
This doesn't indicate that ANA and Boeing has concluded the formal signing over of the aircraft and transferring of money and signing of documents. That may well have happened already but no aircraft has left Everett bound for Japan as of yet and there has been no announcement from Boeing or ANA of the formal delivery of any of these airplanes. ZA116 (JA805A) is still in Everett and has flown both Boeing and customer flights but I don't know if there are more test flights that have yet to be done or if there is any more work that needs to be concluded on the airplane itself. This Dreamliner is probably the one that is closest to being delivered.
The other two airplanes ZA104 (JA807A) and ZA102 (JA804A) have done some customer flights out of Everett but probably need to do a few more flights before ANA formally accepts them. I do think that Boeing can deliver all three airplanes within the next week in order for ANA to meet its newly revised international 787 service schedule. It is to start Tokyo - Beijing service in the middle of January and Tokyo - Frankfurt service in February.
As far as other airplanes, ZA236 has yet to make a flight to start finish F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787. There is no word on when that will happen though it has run its engines for the first time just before Christmas though there was a small fuel fire 30 minutes into the engine run. I don't know what effect that has on the schedule as of now.
This doesn't indicate that ANA and Boeing has concluded the formal signing over of the aircraft and transferring of money and signing of documents. That may well have happened already but no aircraft has left Everett bound for Japan as of yet and there has been no announcement from Boeing or ANA of the formal delivery of any of these airplanes. ZA116 (JA805A) is still in Everett and has flown both Boeing and customer flights but I don't know if there are more test flights that have yet to be done or if there is any more work that needs to be concluded on the airplane itself. This Dreamliner is probably the one that is closest to being delivered.
The other two airplanes ZA104 (JA807A) and ZA102 (JA804A) have done some customer flights out of Everett but probably need to do a few more flights before ANA formally accepts them. I do think that Boeing can deliver all three airplanes within the next week in order for ANA to meet its newly revised international 787 service schedule. It is to start Tokyo - Beijing service in the middle of January and Tokyo - Frankfurt service in February.
As far as other airplanes, ZA236 has yet to make a flight to start finish F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787. There is no word on when that will happen though it has run its engines for the first time just before Christmas though there was a small fuel fire 30 minutes into the engine run. I don't know what effect that has on the schedule as of now.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Possible Delivery Delay for GEnx powered 787?
Given that the delays to the 787 for ANA are well documented, Boeing is pushing hard to get three more Dreamliners into the hands of the airline before the end of the year. The revised delivery schedule for this month shows that ZA116 should deliver around Dec. 27 with ZA104 and ZA102 delivering on Dec. 30th. Of course this is all subject to change.
The knock on effects maybe felt to the GEnx powered 787s. Let's review first. Boeing has flown almost all the test points for FAA certification of the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. The remaining test points that need to be completed is functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs testing. Now Boeing completed some of this testing on the flight test version of the aircraft but the FAA requires that some portion of this testing to be done on a production version of the plane. Boeing has assigned ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH). When Boeing ran the F&R/ETOPs testing on the Trent-1000 version of the airplane it was done on ZA102 (which is being prepared for delivery) and lasted about 300 hours.
I am assuming that Boeing will have to fly a similar number of hours for the GE powered machine but some of those hours have been done on the test flight birds (ZA005 and ZA006). It is unknown how many more hours will be needed to finish certification testing.
ZA236 has yet to fly and it seems that resources have been diverted from preparing this airplane for flight to preparing the three aforementioned ANA 787s for delivery. Flightblogger had reported that Boeing was to fly ZA236 by the middle of this month but it's now looking that it will be later this month. For the Trent-1000 version, Boeing conducted the 300 hour F&R/ETOPs over a 51 day period during this past summer. Assuming that Boeing has to only fly half that amount (150 hours) with ZA236 (with the rest already done by the test aircraft) which means about 3 to 4 weeks of flight tests and that testing starts soon after the New Year, the test program can wrap up around the end of January. Figure a couple of weeks before the FAA issues the amended type certificate (middle of February) then deliveries can take place start in middle to late February. This is assuming that there aren't any production issues holding up these airplanes and no unexpected issues that are revealed during the final F&R/ETOPs testing.
Boeing's delivery forecast for the GEnx-1B was very early 2012 (January) and internal documents up until last week had Boeing delivering the first to Japan Airlines in January 2012. This is now not the case as the situation is still very fluid.
The knock on effects maybe felt to the GEnx powered 787s. Let's review first. Boeing has flown almost all the test points for FAA certification of the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. The remaining test points that need to be completed is functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs testing. Now Boeing completed some of this testing on the flight test version of the aircraft but the FAA requires that some portion of this testing to be done on a production version of the plane. Boeing has assigned ZA236 (L/N 35, VT-ANH). When Boeing ran the F&R/ETOPs testing on the Trent-1000 version of the airplane it was done on ZA102 (which is being prepared for delivery) and lasted about 300 hours.
I am assuming that Boeing will have to fly a similar number of hours for the GE powered machine but some of those hours have been done on the test flight birds (ZA005 and ZA006). It is unknown how many more hours will be needed to finish certification testing.
ZA236 has yet to fly and it seems that resources have been diverted from preparing this airplane for flight to preparing the three aforementioned ANA 787s for delivery. Flightblogger had reported that Boeing was to fly ZA236 by the middle of this month but it's now looking that it will be later this month. For the Trent-1000 version, Boeing conducted the 300 hour F&R/ETOPs over a 51 day period during this past summer. Assuming that Boeing has to only fly half that amount (150 hours) with ZA236 (with the rest already done by the test aircraft) which means about 3 to 4 weeks of flight tests and that testing starts soon after the New Year, the test program can wrap up around the end of January. Figure a couple of weeks before the FAA issues the amended type certificate (middle of February) then deliveries can take place start in middle to late February. This is assuming that there aren't any production issues holding up these airplanes and no unexpected issues that are revealed during the final F&R/ETOPs testing.
Boeing's delivery forecast for the GEnx-1B was very early 2012 (January) and internal documents up until last week had Boeing delivering the first to Japan Airlines in January 2012. This is now not the case as the situation is still very fluid.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Charleston forges ahead
Boeing PhotoBoeing announced today that the first 787 to be built in their new plant in North Charleston has touched down on its wheels for the first time today. The weight on wheels means that this airplane will be rolled to the last final assembly spots for further assembly tasks. The airplane is destined for Air India and is designated ZA237, L/N 46. Boeing is expecting that this airplane should be delivered by mid -2012 but Jim Albaugh has indicated that it can be delivered earlier than that. It appears that this aircraft (from the photo above) is headed for the third position on the line where, according the the Boeing press release, it will receive mechanical, electrical and hydraulic systems and under go testing. Presumably it will head to position 4 for interiors and engine installation.
Here's the Boeing press release:
Boeing South Carolina Site Achieves 787 Weight on Wheels Milestone
Production achievement marks continued momentum on first 787 built at site
NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C., Dec. 20, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA)
announced today that its first South Carolina-built 787 put weight on wheels for the
first time on Dec. 18."Our Boeing South Carolina team has achieved another significant milestone, putting weight on wheels," said Jack Jones, Boeing South Carolina vice president and general manager. "This is a result of both great local talent and dedication and talent and knowledge assembled from across Boeing Commercial Airplanes."
The airplane moved on its landing gear, via tug, to the next production position where electrical, hydraulic and mechanical systems installation and testing will continue over the next several weeks. Installation of the airplane's engines and interior will begin soon.
"To achieve weight on wheels just 24 months after breaking ground on this new facility is incredible," said Marco Cavazzoni, Boeing South Carolina Final Assembly and Delivery vice president and general manager.
"This is a great testament to what can be done when a well-trained, knowledgeable and highly motivated team focuses on a common goal."
Boeing South Carolina remains on schedule for its first 787 Dreamliner delivery in the first half of 2012.
Made from composite materials, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner is the first mid-size airplane capable of flying long-range routes and will allow airlines to open new, non-stop routes preferred by the traveling public. As a result of innovative technologies, the airplane offers unparalleled operating economics, fuel efficiency and passenger comfort. More than 800 787s are on order by more than 50 airlines, a testament to the airplane's unique capabilities.
In the background of the photograph is the next Dreamliner to be built at Charleston already in the wing-body join tooling in position 1. This airplane is ZA238, L/N 54 and is also destined for Air India.
In other news not too much is happening with the 787s at Everett though there seems to have been a lot of movement of the completed airframes from pictures on Matt Cawby's web site. ZA 104 made its first flight yesterday and Boeing, so far, is maintaining a delivery target for the end of this month. ZA116 had ANA pilots conducting radio checks today while ZA102 was supposed to conduct taxi tests now that it out of change incorporation. All three of these airplanes are scheduled for delivery late this month with ZA116's delivery coming up first. The next few days will be very interesting.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Now it's three
A source told me this morning that L/N 42 (ZA105, JA808A) wil not be delivered this month as originally intended. This aircraft is still sitting in front of the EMC going through final preparation for delivery but Boeing will probably have to wait until next month.
This is hardly a surprise given all the work yet to be done to get these airplanes ready for delivery. Boeing will try to deliver 3 more 787s this year for a total of 5. Boeing has already delivered 9 747-8F airplanes and will probably be done for the year for 747 deliveries. The total 747 and 787 deliveries will total 14 of which 1/3 are 787s and 2/3 747 which is what Boeing had projected earlier this quarter. However, they were hoping to deliver 15 - 20 787s nad 747s in total. Unfortunately they will not even reach the lower bound of that number.
There has been no further test flights of any production 787s as of yet.
Friday, December 16, 2011
More on Boeing 787 delivery schedule
In the wake of the news coming out of Japan of the delay to the 3rd Dreamliner delivery more news has since come out courtesy of Dominic Gates at the Seattle Times and Susanna Ray at Bloomberg News.
Dominic Gates reported yesterday evening that the reason of the delay for the third 787 to ANA is wiring issues that the FAA found during a standard inspection as well as non functioning APUs in three 787s. Because the APU didn't start, tests that were to be done with the APU running had to be put off until the units were replaced. Boeing is calling these issues minor yet they were severe enough to force ANA to revise its international plans that were supposed to start this month.
It is unknown if this is a problem that is endemic through the 787s that are sitting in Everett or it is just a one off problem. Still the upshot is that the L/N will not be delivered until middle of next week and the other three airplanes that are set to be delivered have yet to fly on their pre-delivery tests with Boeing and ANA pilots. The delay which this site reported back in mid November forced ANA to postpone the start of international 787 service to next month.
Due to the pressure to deliver these four airplanes (L/N 9, L/N 31, L/N 41, L/N 42) Boeing is having some of it workers work through the holiday season which is traditionally a week off for Boeing employees. Undoubtedly they will probably be well compensated for their time. There are only three of these airplanes on the Boeing flightline though the fourth, L/N 42, is outside in front of EMC so it might be pulled out to the flightline very soon. Interestingly according to the Bloomberg article, the APU and wire issues aren't pacing the schedule. The question then is, what is pacing the delivery schedule, at least in the near term. Both articles say that Boeing feels that the issues are minor.
As of yet L/N 41 and L/N 42 have not flown and L/N 9 while it has flown still has not begun the process of Boeing and customer check flights. L/N 31 has had quite a few flights but has not flown since Wednesday, Dec. 14th. I'll be watching to see if there is any further movement on these airplanes but certainly, if the other three airplanes have not flown by middle of next week then Boeing's hopes of delivering at least four 787 this month will be dashed.
Lastly, in a related note, L/N 35 which to perform the ETOPs/F&R testing for the GEnx-1B on a 787 production frame still has not made its first flight. IF Boeing hopes to deliver the GEnx powered 787 next month they need to start flight tests on this airplane very soon or the certification and start of deliveries can slide to the right again.
Dominic Gates reported yesterday evening that the reason of the delay for the third 787 to ANA is wiring issues that the FAA found during a standard inspection as well as non functioning APUs in three 787s. Because the APU didn't start, tests that were to be done with the APU running had to be put off until the units were replaced. Boeing is calling these issues minor yet they were severe enough to force ANA to revise its international plans that were supposed to start this month.
It is unknown if this is a problem that is endemic through the 787s that are sitting in Everett or it is just a one off problem. Still the upshot is that the L/N will not be delivered until middle of next week and the other three airplanes that are set to be delivered have yet to fly on their pre-delivery tests with Boeing and ANA pilots. The delay which this site reported back in mid November forced ANA to postpone the start of international 787 service to next month.
Due to the pressure to deliver these four airplanes (L/N 9, L/N 31, L/N 41, L/N 42) Boeing is having some of it workers work through the holiday season which is traditionally a week off for Boeing employees. Undoubtedly they will probably be well compensated for their time. There are only three of these airplanes on the Boeing flightline though the fourth, L/N 42, is outside in front of EMC so it might be pulled out to the flightline very soon. Interestingly according to the Bloomberg article, the APU and wire issues aren't pacing the schedule. The question then is, what is pacing the delivery schedule, at least in the near term. Both articles say that Boeing feels that the issues are minor.
As of yet L/N 41 and L/N 42 have not flown and L/N 9 while it has flown still has not begun the process of Boeing and customer check flights. L/N 31 has had quite a few flights but has not flown since Wednesday, Dec. 14th. I'll be watching to see if there is any further movement on these airplanes but certainly, if the other three airplanes have not flown by middle of next week then Boeing's hopes of delivering at least four 787 this month will be dashed.
Lastly, in a related note, L/N 35 which to perform the ETOPs/F&R testing for the GEnx-1B on a 787 production frame still has not made its first flight. IF Boeing hopes to deliver the GEnx powered 787 next month they need to start flight tests on this airplane very soon or the certification and start of deliveries can slide to the right again.
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