The Everett weather may be looking to put a hold on deliveries for the next few days and may ground aircraft all together. The Seattle area is expecting rain....a lot of it as Mt Ranier is forecasted to have 10 FEET of snow but the lower elevations, while not getting that much, will probably be clobbered as well with large amounts of rain. Boeing is still stuck at 35 deliveries in total to 8 customers. There has been some movements of assembled aircraft with ZA504 (LN 15) moving to the Runaway storage area and ZA150 (LN 17) moving to the EMC. In a surprise move, ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) was moved to the EMC, ostensibly for change incorporation. This MAY indicate some movement to deliver 787s to the Chinese (China Southern and Hainan) but it's too early to tell. This aircraft could easily go back to the temporary parking/storage that it had previously occupied. ZA175 (LN 20) finally made it inside the EMC to continue change incorporation and finally ZA287 (LN 52, N26903) was moved to the paint hangar and should be out soon. Interestingly ZA285 (LN 45, N29601) is still out on the flightline even though it was pulled out of the EMC earlier.
With the Thanksgiving holidays coming up along with the rainy weather in the Pacific Northwest, don't expect too much happening out of Everett this week. There is supposed to be a line move early next week. Lastly, there is a rumor that Air India will be able to pay for another 787 this week and fly it away from Charleston but so far nothing has happened.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Into the 2012 787 delivery home stretch...what can we expect
As we head into the last six and a half weeks of 2012, the delivery picture for the 787 is getting clearer as to what we can expect over the next 45 days.
To start I'm listing the 787s that may be delivered in the weeks to come before the end of the year.
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian
ZA285 (LN 45, N26901) - United Airlines
ZA286 (LN 50, N26902) - United Airlines
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India*
ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) - United Airlines
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A) - ANA
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India*
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCK) - Qatar Airways
ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) - Air India*
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - LOT Polish Airlines**
ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) - LAN Airlines
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) - Qatar Airways
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) - ANA
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) - Japan Airlines
*Dependent on Air India obtaining bridge financing to pay for the aircraft
**Supposed to have delivery flight to Poland in early January but may contractually deliver in December
There are 15 aircraft listed here but I have doubts about 4 of them being contractually delivered by Dec. 31st (as noted with the asterisks). This means that 11, I believe, will be firmly delivered by the end of the year. Boeing is currently at 32 aircraft that were delivered in 2012, which means they can potentially deliver 43 airplanes. If Air India and LOT take delivery of the aircraft that I have highlighted then the nunber goes to 47. One can imagine if Air India and the Chinese carriers had no issues, then the number of deliveries would be just north of 50. Boeing is certain to achieve the higher end of their 787 delivery forecast. Of the aircraft that are currently at the EMC and undergoing change incorporation, I don't anticipate that any these 787s will be completed in time to be delivered this year.
To start I'm listing the 787s that may be delivered in the weeks to come before the end of the year.
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian
ZA285 (LN 45, N26901) - United Airlines
ZA286 (LN 50, N26902) - United Airlines
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India*
ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) - United Airlines
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A) - ANA
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India*
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCK) - Qatar Airways
ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) - Air India*
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - LOT Polish Airlines**
ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) - LAN Airlines
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) - Qatar Airways
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) - ANA
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) - Japan Airlines
*Dependent on Air India obtaining bridge financing to pay for the aircraft
**Supposed to have delivery flight to Poland in early January but may contractually deliver in December
There are 15 aircraft listed here but I have doubts about 4 of them being contractually delivered by Dec. 31st (as noted with the asterisks). This means that 11, I believe, will be firmly delivered by the end of the year. Boeing is currently at 32 aircraft that were delivered in 2012, which means they can potentially deliver 43 airplanes. If Air India and LOT take delivery of the aircraft that I have highlighted then the nunber goes to 47. One can imagine if Air India and the Chinese carriers had no issues, then the number of deliveries would be just north of 50. Boeing is certain to achieve the higher end of their 787 delivery forecast. Of the aircraft that are currently at the EMC and undergoing change incorporation, I don't anticipate that any these 787s will be completed in time to be delivered this year.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Big week for the 787 program
Boeing saw two 787 customer fly aways this week as mostly positive news about the program reinforced the view that the program is on a solid course to recover and to become profitable.
First came news (that this blog revealed in an earlier post) that Boeing is producing the 787 at 5/month including one per month from Boeing Charleston.
This further reinforces the view that Boeing is on a solid track to achieve the planned production rate of 7/month in Everett and 3/month in North Charleston. ZA511 (LN 83, JA818A) was rolled out last week and represents the first aircraft built at the 5/month rate.
Boeing's Board of Directors gave a soft ok to Boeing's Commercial Sales staff to begin discussions with customers regarding the 787-10 which is a double stretch of the baseline 787-8. This aircraft, which will compete head on with Airbus' A330-300 and A350-900 and will be marketed as a 777-200 replacement, has generated a lot of positive feedback. Qatar Airways' is reportedly in negotiations to convert some of the 30 firm and 30 options that they have on the 787-8 into the 787-10. Since the 787-10 is not due to be delivered around 2018 or 2019, conversions will allow Boeing to free up short term delivery slots for 787-8 and 787-9 thus helping sales of those versions of the Dreamliner. Given that the program needs sales of over 1000 787s to achieve breakeven, the 787-10 will certainly help Boeing attain that as it is rumored that Boeing can sell as many as 500 787-10s. Boeing doesn't have the full ATO (Authority To Offer) but it is widely rumored that this should happen very very shortly, (as soon as this month) which leads me to believe that Boeing will probably have one or two launch customers lined up with an MoU. These sales won't be posted as firm until next year however. Other potential customers include British Airways, Singapore Airlines, Ethihad, Air France, Lufthansa, American Airlines, United Airlines, and any carrier with a 777-200 or an A330-300.
The not so good news is that Gulf Air is reducing the number of 787s they have on order. The order book once had 24 787ss for the Middle Eastern carrier which has been reduced to the current 16 and may go as low as 12.
Boeing had official handovers of 787s this week to Qatar Airways and LOT Polish Airlines. Both aircraft were contractually delivered earlier so these "deliveries" were ceremonial (read: for the media) in nature as was the fly aways to the airlines' respective home bases.
Looking ahead Boeing will load another 787 tomorrow into position 1 on the surge line. This will be ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) for Thomson Airways, the British charter airline. It'll be the first 787 delivered to a British carrier but it certainly won't be the only British carrier to receive the 787 in 2013. Boeing will push out ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) for Japan Airlines. This aircraft should be delivered by the end of December to the Japanese carrier.
In terms of deliveries, there are currently 5 787s that are ready to be delivered but two of them are for Air India and given the precarious state of the bridge financing needed to pay for the deliveries, it is highly unlikely that they will be delivered anytime soon but Boeing has prepared them for delivery. There are one each for Untied Airlines, Qatar and Ethiopian that are ready. According to my sources, Qatar should take their third 787 next week, Ethiopian will take their fourth later this week and Untied should follow with their third late next week. There are several more that are preparing to fly or are in the middle of Boeing/customer test flights. LAN's third had its B-1 flight which was cut short due to a squawk that developed 20 minutes into the flight. Matt Caby reported that the issue was in the (air conditioning) packs. One 787 each for Qatar and United should be flying very soon though expect their deliveries to occur around December if the B-1 flights are not performed this week. ANA's 17th aircraft is on the flightline but probably won't fly until the end of this month at the earliest.
Boeing has the potential to deliver at least 3 more 787s this month in addition to the 2 already delivered but if Air India gets its act together then we can see two more 787s delivered this month for a total of 7. Right now 5 is more realistic for a delivery number in November.
First came news (that this blog revealed in an earlier post) that Boeing is producing the 787 at 5/month including one per month from Boeing Charleston.
This further reinforces the view that Boeing is on a solid track to achieve the planned production rate of 7/month in Everett and 3/month in North Charleston. ZA511 (LN 83, JA818A) was rolled out last week and represents the first aircraft built at the 5/month rate.
Boeing's Board of Directors gave a soft ok to Boeing's Commercial Sales staff to begin discussions with customers regarding the 787-10 which is a double stretch of the baseline 787-8. This aircraft, which will compete head on with Airbus' A330-300 and A350-900 and will be marketed as a 777-200 replacement, has generated a lot of positive feedback. Qatar Airways' is reportedly in negotiations to convert some of the 30 firm and 30 options that they have on the 787-8 into the 787-10. Since the 787-10 is not due to be delivered around 2018 or 2019, conversions will allow Boeing to free up short term delivery slots for 787-8 and 787-9 thus helping sales of those versions of the Dreamliner. Given that the program needs sales of over 1000 787s to achieve breakeven, the 787-10 will certainly help Boeing attain that as it is rumored that Boeing can sell as many as 500 787-10s. Boeing doesn't have the full ATO (Authority To Offer) but it is widely rumored that this should happen very very shortly, (as soon as this month) which leads me to believe that Boeing will probably have one or two launch customers lined up with an MoU. These sales won't be posted as firm until next year however. Other potential customers include British Airways, Singapore Airlines, Ethihad, Air France, Lufthansa, American Airlines, United Airlines, and any carrier with a 777-200 or an A330-300.
The not so good news is that Gulf Air is reducing the number of 787s they have on order. The order book once had 24 787ss for the Middle Eastern carrier which has been reduced to the current 16 and may go as low as 12.
Boeing had official handovers of 787s this week to Qatar Airways and LOT Polish Airlines. Both aircraft were contractually delivered earlier so these "deliveries" were ceremonial (read: for the media) in nature as was the fly aways to the airlines' respective home bases.
Looking ahead Boeing will load another 787 tomorrow into position 1 on the surge line. This will be ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) for Thomson Airways, the British charter airline. It'll be the first 787 delivered to a British carrier but it certainly won't be the only British carrier to receive the 787 in 2013. Boeing will push out ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) for Japan Airlines. This aircraft should be delivered by the end of December to the Japanese carrier.
In terms of deliveries, there are currently 5 787s that are ready to be delivered but two of them are for Air India and given the precarious state of the bridge financing needed to pay for the deliveries, it is highly unlikely that they will be delivered anytime soon but Boeing has prepared them for delivery. There are one each for Untied Airlines, Qatar and Ethiopian that are ready. According to my sources, Qatar should take their third 787 next week, Ethiopian will take their fourth later this week and Untied should follow with their third late next week. There are several more that are preparing to fly or are in the middle of Boeing/customer test flights. LAN's third had its B-1 flight which was cut short due to a squawk that developed 20 minutes into the flight. Matt Caby reported that the issue was in the (air conditioning) packs. One 787 each for Qatar and United should be flying very soon though expect their deliveries to occur around December if the B-1 flights are not performed this week. ANA's 17th aircraft is on the flightline but probably won't fly until the end of this month at the earliest.
Boeing has the potential to deliver at least 3 more 787s this month in addition to the 2 already delivered but if Air India gets its act together then we can see two more 787s delivered this month for a total of 7. Right now 5 is more realistic for a delivery number in November.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Air India 787 deliveries put on hold...again
It seems that 787 deliveries to Air India are on hold.....again. Apparently Air India is in the middle of a a "tussle" between the Indian Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Civil Aviation. They whole debacle has scuttled the bridge financing needed to pay for the 787 purchases (later to be paid back when Air India arranges a sale-lease back agreement with another party).
The carrier has issued a new RFP for bridge financing. In the meantime look for Boeing Charleston to be turned into a a 78 parking lot as 787 for Air India, China Southern and Hainan Airlines take up all the available parking stalls at the facility (there are currently 8 stalls for 787s). There are 9 787s that are built, will be built or in production there and all of them are for the aforementioned carriers with a 10th at Ft. Worth being painted.
Given this information I'm revising my delivery expectation downward by another three aircraft. I expect Boeing will deliver 14 more 787s by the end of December for a total of 44 787s for 2012 and 47 deliveries since the program started delivering in 2011.
Between the two assembly locations and the three airlines, there are 22 total airframes (thus far) that are assembled, going through assembly or will be assembled that are affected by the issues with the CAAC and the Indian Government. Unsurprisingly, it is the governmental entities of India and China (a tribute to Socialism) that are being the barriers to delivery.
The carrier has issued a new RFP for bridge financing. In the meantime look for Boeing Charleston to be turned into a a 78 parking lot as 787 for Air India, China Southern and Hainan Airlines take up all the available parking stalls at the facility (there are currently 8 stalls for 787s). There are 9 787s that are built, will be built or in production there and all of them are for the aforementioned carriers with a 10th at Ft. Worth being painted.
Given this information I'm revising my delivery expectation downward by another three aircraft. I expect Boeing will deliver 14 more 787s by the end of December for a total of 44 787s for 2012 and 47 deliveries since the program started delivering in 2011.
Between the two assembly locations and the three airlines, there are 22 total airframes (thus far) that are assembled, going through assembly or will be assembled that are affected by the issues with the CAAC and the Indian Government. Unsurprisingly, it is the governmental entities of India and China (a tribute to Socialism) that are being the barriers to delivery.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Boeing closing on 787 delivery target but can they make 50?
Through October 2012, Boeing has delivered 30 787s to 7 customers. Their publicly announced target was between 35 and 42. They will certainly hit the lower target this month and the upper target in December but the question is can they deliver 50 787s this year.
In earlier posts I've maintained that they can deliver 50 787s by year end. However given recent developments with China that target will now have to be revised downwards. They can certainly attain 42 deliveries and higher but it will not be 50 airplanes.
Here's breakdown of whom I think will get 787s in November and December:
Air India - 3 deliveries
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - November
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - November
ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) - December
ANA - 2 deliveries
ZA512 (LN 83) - November
ZA510 (LN 59) - December
Ethiopian - 1 delivery
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - November
Japan Airlines - 1 delivery
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) - December
LAN - 1 delivery
ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) - November
LOT Polish Airlines - 2 deliveries
ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - November
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - December
Qatar Airways - 4 deliveries
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - November
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL) - November
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC) - December
ZA464 (LN 82) - December
United Airlines - 3 deliveries
ZA286 (LN 50, N26902) - November
ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) - November
ZA287 (LN 52, N26903) - December
This totals 17 Dreamliners that would be delivered thought there is an outside chance that one more air frame for Japan Airlines cold be delivered by the end of December. The total for 2012 would be 47 airplanes in total which would certainly exceed the high end of Boeing forecasted deliveries. Again the main driver in the reduction is the lack of deliveries to China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines.
In earlier posts I've maintained that they can deliver 50 787s by year end. However given recent developments with China that target will now have to be revised downwards. They can certainly attain 42 deliveries and higher but it will not be 50 airplanes.
Here's breakdown of whom I think will get 787s in November and December:
Air India - 3 deliveries
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - November
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - November
ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) - December
ANA - 2 deliveries
ZA512 (LN 83) - November
ZA510 (LN 59) - December
Ethiopian - 1 delivery
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - November
Japan Airlines - 1 delivery
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) - December
LAN - 1 delivery
ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) - November
LOT Polish Airlines - 2 deliveries
ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - November
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - December
Qatar Airways - 4 deliveries
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - November
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL) - November
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC) - December
ZA464 (LN 82) - December
United Airlines - 3 deliveries
ZA286 (LN 50, N26902) - November
ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) - November
ZA287 (LN 52, N26903) - December
This totals 17 Dreamliners that would be delivered thought there is an outside chance that one more air frame for Japan Airlines cold be delivered by the end of December. The total for 2012 would be 47 airplanes in total which would certainly exceed the high end of Boeing forecasted deliveries. Again the main driver in the reduction is the lack of deliveries to China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines.
Sunday, November 4, 2012
787 now solidly at 5/month production rate. Chinese 787s into storage, LOT 787s delivery schedule clarified....a bit
Boeing has moved three 787s for two Chinese carriers into long term storage at Everett's South Ramp while a fourth 787 awaiting change incorporation is also being stored on a runaway parking spot.
Boeing has moved ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) and ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) bot h for China Southern Airlines as well as ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) for Hainan Airlines into the South Ramp and has taped and sealed the aircraft to protect them until they are ready to be delivered. ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) had been stored on the Everett's RWY 11/29 with other 787s awaiting change incorporation and will probably be there for some time until the issues with the CAAC are resolved. There are 7 other 787s that are in production or final assembly and I am not sure if those airframes will be reallocated or will be produced for Hainan and China Southern and then stored. It seems to me that it will be the former as buyer furnished equipment such as the engines and galleys have, at this stage, been ordered and delivered or will be delivered soon to Boeing's facilities in Charleston and Everett. These items require lead time and Boeing did go ahead with production on the Chinese airframes even through the issues with China was not resolved.
On a brighter note, I received information regarding LOT Polish Airlines' 787 deliveries. The first contractual delivery of ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) is tentatively scheduled for November 9th. This aircraft will remain in Everett for about 5 days for crew training before flying to Warsaw on the 14th.
Future deliveries flights of LOT's other 787s to Warsaw are scheduled as follows:
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - delivery to Warsaw is in early January 2013 (probably contractual delivery in late December 2012)
The other three in production are to be delivered at monthly intervals during the first quarter of 2013 but they will all be waiting in Everett in storage which begs the question,why start producing them now when delivery is months away? I don't have an answer for that, unfortunately.
In production news, Charleston is starting to move faster on production out put of 787s. The 5th Charleston built 787 was moved out to the flightline within the last couple of days. This is ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) for Air India. This means that Boeing has achieved a 1/month production rate on the 787s at Charleston and a solid 4/month at Everett.. During the day today, Boeing sent ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) to Ft Worth for painting and ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) was flown back to Charleston to finish pre-delivery test flights. It is rumored that Boeing will deliver ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) this week to Air India but there is still some uncertainty due to Air India's financing the purchases of the Dreamliner.
Boeing continues to work on the '87s at Everett that need re-work. They had recently started change incorporation on ZA504 (LN 15) for ANA and this past weekend, they moved ZA234 (LN 30, VT-ANE) to the EMC. Given the amount of re-work needed on these frames it'll be sometime around the first quarter of 2013 before this aircraft is delivered.
Boeing has moved ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) and ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) bot h for China Southern Airlines as well as ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) for Hainan Airlines into the South Ramp and has taped and sealed the aircraft to protect them until they are ready to be delivered. ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) had been stored on the Everett's RWY 11/29 with other 787s awaiting change incorporation and will probably be there for some time until the issues with the CAAC are resolved. There are 7 other 787s that are in production or final assembly and I am not sure if those airframes will be reallocated or will be produced for Hainan and China Southern and then stored. It seems to me that it will be the former as buyer furnished equipment such as the engines and galleys have, at this stage, been ordered and delivered or will be delivered soon to Boeing's facilities in Charleston and Everett. These items require lead time and Boeing did go ahead with production on the Chinese airframes even through the issues with China was not resolved.
On a brighter note, I received information regarding LOT Polish Airlines' 787 deliveries. The first contractual delivery of ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) is tentatively scheduled for November 9th. This aircraft will remain in Everett for about 5 days for crew training before flying to Warsaw on the 14th.
Future deliveries flights of LOT's other 787s to Warsaw are scheduled as follows:
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - delivery to Warsaw is in early January 2013 (probably contractual delivery in late December 2012)
The other three in production are to be delivered at monthly intervals during the first quarter of 2013 but they will all be waiting in Everett in storage which begs the question,why start producing them now when delivery is months away? I don't have an answer for that, unfortunately.
In production news, Charleston is starting to move faster on production out put of 787s. The 5th Charleston built 787 was moved out to the flightline within the last couple of days. This is ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) for Air India. This means that Boeing has achieved a 1/month production rate on the 787s at Charleston and a solid 4/month at Everett.. During the day today, Boeing sent ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) to Ft Worth for painting and ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) was flown back to Charleston to finish pre-delivery test flights. It is rumored that Boeing will deliver ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) this week to Air India but there is still some uncertainty due to Air India's financing the purchases of the Dreamliner.
Boeing continues to work on the '87s at Everett that need re-work. They had recently started change incorporation on ZA504 (LN 15) for ANA and this past weekend, they moved ZA234 (LN 30, VT-ANE) to the EMC. Given the amount of re-work needed on these frames it'll be sometime around the first quarter of 2013 before this aircraft is delivered.
Friday, November 2, 2012
I'm Baaaack...but only for the moment - Post Sandy 787 Update
Hello everyone,
First off I want to thank you all who have sent me best wishes during the last few days. It's been difficult as I have no power, heat (temps are in the low 40s F overnight) and hot water (for bathing, cleaning, etc.). I'm hopingto have power back in the enxt couple of days but we're not sure when it'll happen. Right now I'm camped out in the local public library where there is WIFI (real slow due to all the residents who are also here), electricity and heat. I'll put up a post but not sure when I will be able to do so again.
Anyway on to business.
Boeing had two quick deliveries on Halloween, let's call them "ghost deliveries" as they weren't expected. In particular the delivery to United of its 2nd 787. the information coming from United and even Boeing itself didn't indicate a delivery was imminent but they did deliver ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) on Wednesday. United just announced that they have finished FAA certification of their 787 operations and now should be ready to start limited service on Monday, Nov. 4th. Boeing should still be able to deliver the two Dreamliners to the carrier in November. These frame are re-worked frames so we would have to see how fast they would go through the pre-delivery and test flight process as ZA290 was a new build that didn't need any re-work and had only needed 2 test flights before being delivered to United. It's not known when United will press ZA290 into service.
The second airplane that was delivered was ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) to ANA which is a reworked frame that had 3 test flights prior to being delivered. For October, Boeing matched the monthly high of 7 deliveries which was achieved in September.
November as mentioned in the prior post may be big but there are issues that may depress deliveries. First is the uncertainty over deliveries to the Chinese carriers. There is a certification issue, rumor has it, with the Chinese aviation authorities (CAAC).
When asked about it Boeing replied: "In keeping with our standard practices, we work with regulatory authorities in advance of local airlines taking delivery of a new model of airplane. Also, as we’ve stated before, we don’t provide forward-looking comments regarding the production or delivery schedules of our customers."
The issue with CAAC has been reinforced when Boeing put both ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern Airlines and ZA430 (LN 73, B2728) for Hainan into storage at Everett's South Ramp. This indicates that the issue will take some time to sort out. Boeing has one more 787s for Hainan Airlines that is on the flightline but so far they have not made a move to store it...yet. There are several 787s that are in production for both Chinese carriers. In addition to the aforementioned airplanes that have flown or been pulled out of final assembly and on the flightline, there are 2 787s for China Southern that are in storage or in change incorporation. At Boeing Charleston there are 3 787s in final assembly for Hainan Airlines and 3 more (all for China Southern) are to start final assembly at either Everett of Boeing Charleston by the end of the year or early January. This is a total of 11 airframes that are potentially to be stored if the issues are not resolved with CAAC.
Boeing as of today has 14 airplanes that are in pre-flight, flight testing or ready to be delivered. Rumor has it that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to be delivered sometime next week to Air India. It was to have been delivered last month and it is unknown as to why there was a delay but this is Air India. 'Nuff said.
Qatar Airways seems to be moving towards taking 2 more 787s in November though I'm still trying to get confirmation on this LOT Polish Airlines should take their first 787 in about 10 days as well. That is 4 aircraft thus far.
Here is what I think will be delivered this month:
ZA261 - Ethiopian - 2 test flights already and flying a 3rd today
ZA286 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA238 - Air India - ready for delivery
ZA289 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA460 - Qatar Airways - 2 test flights thus far
ZA239 - Air India - 2 test flights and in paint
ZA270 - LOT Polish Airlines - 2 Boeing test flights thus far
ZA463 - Qatar Airways - 4 test flights thus far
ZA271 - LOT Polish Airlines - in pre-flight may deliver late this month or by end of December
ZA538 - LAN - in pre-flight and should fly soon
This is a total of 9 (with a possibility of 10) 787s being delivered this month. Obviously I am not counting any of the Chinese airframes. It remains to be seen how those airframes that are currently in production will fare in terms of getting through pre-flight and being delivered by the end of the month but I can see one more airframe being delivered to ANA in November (probably the re-work frame) and one for JAL may also make it by the end of the month.
Boeing also has moved one of the "terrible teens" from runaway storage to the EMC to start chagne incorporation. This aircraft is ZA504 (LN 15). Right now this aircraft is listed to go to ANA but this may change. ANother aircraft for Qatar Airways has completed change incorporation and paint is now spotted at the Everett Fuel Dock. This aircraft is ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC). Lastly, Boeig loaded ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) into position 1 in the 40-24 surge line to start final assembly. Boeing is keeping up the assembly rate at around 5 airplanes per month.
First off I want to thank you all who have sent me best wishes during the last few days. It's been difficult as I have no power, heat (temps are in the low 40s F overnight) and hot water (for bathing, cleaning, etc.). I'm hopingto have power back in the enxt couple of days but we're not sure when it'll happen. Right now I'm camped out in the local public library where there is WIFI (real slow due to all the residents who are also here), electricity and heat. I'll put up a post but not sure when I will be able to do so again.
Anyway on to business.
Boeing had two quick deliveries on Halloween, let's call them "ghost deliveries" as they weren't expected. In particular the delivery to United of its 2nd 787. the information coming from United and even Boeing itself didn't indicate a delivery was imminent but they did deliver ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) on Wednesday. United just announced that they have finished FAA certification of their 787 operations and now should be ready to start limited service on Monday, Nov. 4th. Boeing should still be able to deliver the two Dreamliners to the carrier in November. These frame are re-worked frames so we would have to see how fast they would go through the pre-delivery and test flight process as ZA290 was a new build that didn't need any re-work and had only needed 2 test flights before being delivered to United. It's not known when United will press ZA290 into service.
The second airplane that was delivered was ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) to ANA which is a reworked frame that had 3 test flights prior to being delivered. For October, Boeing matched the monthly high of 7 deliveries which was achieved in September.
November as mentioned in the prior post may be big but there are issues that may depress deliveries. First is the uncertainty over deliveries to the Chinese carriers. There is a certification issue, rumor has it, with the Chinese aviation authorities (CAAC).
When asked about it Boeing replied: "In keeping with our standard practices, we work with regulatory authorities in advance of local airlines taking delivery of a new model of airplane. Also, as we’ve stated before, we don’t provide forward-looking comments regarding the production or delivery schedules of our customers."
The issue with CAAC has been reinforced when Boeing put both ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern Airlines and ZA430 (LN 73, B2728) for Hainan into storage at Everett's South Ramp. This indicates that the issue will take some time to sort out. Boeing has one more 787s for Hainan Airlines that is on the flightline but so far they have not made a move to store it...yet. There are several 787s that are in production for both Chinese carriers. In addition to the aforementioned airplanes that have flown or been pulled out of final assembly and on the flightline, there are 2 787s for China Southern that are in storage or in change incorporation. At Boeing Charleston there are 3 787s in final assembly for Hainan Airlines and 3 more (all for China Southern) are to start final assembly at either Everett of Boeing Charleston by the end of the year or early January. This is a total of 11 airframes that are potentially to be stored if the issues are not resolved with CAAC.
Boeing as of today has 14 airplanes that are in pre-flight, flight testing or ready to be delivered. Rumor has it that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to be delivered sometime next week to Air India. It was to have been delivered last month and it is unknown as to why there was a delay but this is Air India. 'Nuff said.
Qatar Airways seems to be moving towards taking 2 more 787s in November though I'm still trying to get confirmation on this LOT Polish Airlines should take their first 787 in about 10 days as well. That is 4 aircraft thus far.
Here is what I think will be delivered this month:
ZA261 - Ethiopian - 2 test flights already and flying a 3rd today
ZA286 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA238 - Air India - ready for delivery
ZA289 - United Airlines - in pre-flight
ZA460 - Qatar Airways - 2 test flights thus far
ZA239 - Air India - 2 test flights and in paint
ZA270 - LOT Polish Airlines - 2 Boeing test flights thus far
ZA463 - Qatar Airways - 4 test flights thus far
ZA271 - LOT Polish Airlines - in pre-flight may deliver late this month or by end of December
ZA538 - LAN - in pre-flight and should fly soon
This is a total of 9 (with a possibility of 10) 787s being delivered this month. Obviously I am not counting any of the Chinese airframes. It remains to be seen how those airframes that are currently in production will fare in terms of getting through pre-flight and being delivered by the end of the month but I can see one more airframe being delivered to ANA in November (probably the re-work frame) and one for JAL may also make it by the end of the month.
Boeing also has moved one of the "terrible teens" from runaway storage to the EMC to start chagne incorporation. This aircraft is ZA504 (LN 15). Right now this aircraft is listed to go to ANA but this may change. ANother aircraft for Qatar Airways has completed change incorporation and paint is now spotted at the Everett Fuel Dock. This aircraft is ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC). Lastly, Boeig loaded ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) into position 1 in the 40-24 surge line to start final assembly. Boeing is keeping up the assembly rate at around 5 airplanes per month.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
787 deliveries may be done for October, November looks to be a big month
Boeing looks to be done with making 787 deliveries for the month of October but November is potentially looking to be a very big month with 16 aircraft already in test flight or pre-flight. Certainly not all those will be delivered in November but several planes coming out of the assembly line would be ready to deliver by the end of November. The main reason of the low number in October is the bad weather which prevented Boeing from conducting first flights within their established guidlines governing 1st flights of production aircraft. Of particular note, the low ceiling levels as well as precipitation that violated Boeing's first flight rules.
Boeing may still be able to deliver one or two more 787s by Wednesday (Oct. 31st) though it is highly doubtful. I can see many deliveries taking place in the first two weeks of November but some may be delayed due to certain customer issues.
Air India - This customer was to have one 787 delivered from Charleston (2nd Charleston built 787) at the end of October but this is now looking like it will deliver in the first two weeks of November. A third CHS built 787 is currently at Fort Worth being painted and should fly back to Charleston by next weekend. A fourth CHS 787 for Air India took its first flight today and I would expect that it can go to Ft. Worth by the end of this week or early next week for painting. I am still not sure on whether the issues surrounding Air India are resolved as these have been the major factors to the delays in delivering the 787s in recent months but if they are then it should be relatively smooth sailing in November. My prediction for November:
Air India - 2 787s will be delivered.
ANA - One 787 still in flight test and this aircraft has taken its 3rd test flight today. It is possible that it can deliver by Wednesday Oct. 31st but I think the odds are not good. It will certainly deliver in the first 2 weeks of November. A second 787 for ANA is at the EMC undergoing change incorporation but this is a late build 787 which doesn't need much change incorporation so I believe it should be out on the flightline shortly and ready to go through the pre-flight program and deliver by the end of November. My prediction for November:
ANA - 2 787s will be delivered.
China Southern Airlines - There is currently one aircraft that is out on the flightline and has had only one test flight. I am still unsure if China's civil aviation authorities have certified the 787 for use by Chinese carriers or not and this uncertainty makes it difficult to say with any confidence if this aircraft (or any 787s for Chinese airlines) will be delivered this month. This is another 787 at the EMC for China Southern that has spent a lot of time in change incorporation and I doubt that this airplane will be ready to be delivered in November. It is entirely possible that Boeing and CAAC can use the 787s that are out on the flightline to satisfy any certification requirements for the Chinese authorities but so far I don't think this is happening just yet. I'm not holding my breath on this one. My prediction for November:
China Southern Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
Ethiopian Airlines - With 3 787s already in hand, the fourth has had one test flight but I do expect that further test flights should take place shortly. This airplane should deliver within the first 2 weeks of November. The 5 787 (and last that will be delivered to this airline in 2012) is at the EMC and I suspect will be rolled out to the flightline by the end of November for a December delivery. My prediction for November:
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Hainan Airlines - Boeing has flown this aircraft 3 times already but the issues surrounding delivery to Hainan remain the same as that of China Southern. A 2nd Hainan 787 has been on the 40-51 ramp for some time now and has not even gone into the paint hangar. I'm not too optimistic that these deliveries will take place in November but I have been wrong. My prediction for November:
Hainan Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
LAN - The carrier too delivery of its 2nd 787 this past week and has a 3rd one out on the flightline going through pre-flight. 1st flight should take place, I believe, within the first 10 days of November with a delivery date in late November. There aren't any more 787 in the pipeline for a December delivery so it will be the last one delivered to LAN in 2012. My prediction for November:
LAN - 1 787 will be delivered.
LOT Polish Airlines - LOTs 1st 787 has only made one test flight however the airline is saying that they will be taking delivery of their 1st aircraft around November 11 or 12th with delivery flight to Warsaw around November 15th. A second 787 is at EMC finishing up some minor assembly tasks and already painted. I expect that this airplane will be pulled to the flightline from the EMC by mid November and should have its first flight in the later half of the month with a projected delivery in December. There are three more 787 for LOT in final assembly and one or two of these airplanes can possibly deliver in December but certainly in January of 2013. My prediction for November:
LOT Polish Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Qatar Airways - A big one. This airlines has already taken contractual delivery of one airplane that is having modifications in Victorville. There are 2 more 787s that are on the flight line at Everett. one aircraft has had 2 test flights thus far and the third one has had 3. Assuming that there are no issues with the aircraft itself, I can see these two airplanes being delivered within the first two weeks of November possibly one may deliver before the end of October but that is a long shot. This is Qatar Airways and they are very unpredictable and demanding. Yet Boeing was able to satisfy them with the first airframe delivered in early October so there is hope. There is one more in final assembly which should pull out a the end of this week (going to paint) and deliver by the end of November. One more 787 is in the EMC which is a late build and should be out on the flightline by around middle November and can be delivered in early December. My prediction for November:
Qatar Airways - 2 787s will be delivered.
United Airlines - Another big one. United just announced that they are delaying the implementation of it 787 schedule (domestic) as result of delays in the delivery of one 787 that was due in October. They are delaying the launch of some 787 domestic service that was supposed to start on November 4th. Currently the 2nd 787s for United is in test flights and has had two flights already. There are two more on the flightline both of which still need to make their first flights. I do think that Boeing can get both these airplanes in the air by early to mid November and have a least two of them delivered to United by the end of the month with one delivered in the 1st two weeks of November. The other 2 787s that are in change incorporation should be ready to be delivered by the end of December. My prediction for November:
United Airlines - 2 787 will be delivered.
This is a total of 11 787s delivered in November which is attainable. Many of these airplanes are in test flights or customer flights and a few are about to enter the test flight program prior to handover. Still the first two weeks of November should see quite a few 787 deliveries being madeto customers but weather will determine the pace of on going deliveries.
A bit of programming note...given that I am in the middle of Hurricane Sandy's target area I may be offline for up to a couple of weeks depending on when and if power needs to be restored. Hopefully it won't be too bad but I will try to update information, particularly on the tables via cell phone which is not particularly easy to do. Thank you for your patience.
Boeing may still be able to deliver one or two more 787s by Wednesday (Oct. 31st) though it is highly doubtful. I can see many deliveries taking place in the first two weeks of November but some may be delayed due to certain customer issues.
Air India - This customer was to have one 787 delivered from Charleston (2nd Charleston built 787) at the end of October but this is now looking like it will deliver in the first two weeks of November. A third CHS built 787 is currently at Fort Worth being painted and should fly back to Charleston by next weekend. A fourth CHS 787 for Air India took its first flight today and I would expect that it can go to Ft. Worth by the end of this week or early next week for painting. I am still not sure on whether the issues surrounding Air India are resolved as these have been the major factors to the delays in delivering the 787s in recent months but if they are then it should be relatively smooth sailing in November. My prediction for November:
Air India - 2 787s will be delivered.
ANA - One 787 still in flight test and this aircraft has taken its 3rd test flight today. It is possible that it can deliver by Wednesday Oct. 31st but I think the odds are not good. It will certainly deliver in the first 2 weeks of November. A second 787 for ANA is at the EMC undergoing change incorporation but this is a late build 787 which doesn't need much change incorporation so I believe it should be out on the flightline shortly and ready to go through the pre-flight program and deliver by the end of November. My prediction for November:
ANA - 2 787s will be delivered.
China Southern Airlines - There is currently one aircraft that is out on the flightline and has had only one test flight. I am still unsure if China's civil aviation authorities have certified the 787 for use by Chinese carriers or not and this uncertainty makes it difficult to say with any confidence if this aircraft (or any 787s for Chinese airlines) will be delivered this month. This is another 787 at the EMC for China Southern that has spent a lot of time in change incorporation and I doubt that this airplane will be ready to be delivered in November. It is entirely possible that Boeing and CAAC can use the 787s that are out on the flightline to satisfy any certification requirements for the Chinese authorities but so far I don't think this is happening just yet. I'm not holding my breath on this one. My prediction for November:
China Southern Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
Ethiopian Airlines - With 3 787s already in hand, the fourth has had one test flight but I do expect that further test flights should take place shortly. This airplane should deliver within the first 2 weeks of November. The 5 787 (and last that will be delivered to this airline in 2012) is at the EMC and I suspect will be rolled out to the flightline by the end of November for a December delivery. My prediction for November:
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Hainan Airlines - Boeing has flown this aircraft 3 times already but the issues surrounding delivery to Hainan remain the same as that of China Southern. A 2nd Hainan 787 has been on the 40-51 ramp for some time now and has not even gone into the paint hangar. I'm not too optimistic that these deliveries will take place in November but I have been wrong. My prediction for November:
Hainan Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.
LAN - The carrier too delivery of its 2nd 787 this past week and has a 3rd one out on the flightline going through pre-flight. 1st flight should take place, I believe, within the first 10 days of November with a delivery date in late November. There aren't any more 787 in the pipeline for a December delivery so it will be the last one delivered to LAN in 2012. My prediction for November:
LAN - 1 787 will be delivered.
LOT Polish Airlines - LOTs 1st 787 has only made one test flight however the airline is saying that they will be taking delivery of their 1st aircraft around November 11 or 12th with delivery flight to Warsaw around November 15th. A second 787 is at EMC finishing up some minor assembly tasks and already painted. I expect that this airplane will be pulled to the flightline from the EMC by mid November and should have its first flight in the later half of the month with a projected delivery in December. There are three more 787 for LOT in final assembly and one or two of these airplanes can possibly deliver in December but certainly in January of 2013. My prediction for November:
LOT Polish Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.
Qatar Airways - A big one. This airlines has already taken contractual delivery of one airplane that is having modifications in Victorville. There are 2 more 787s that are on the flight line at Everett. one aircraft has had 2 test flights thus far and the third one has had 3. Assuming that there are no issues with the aircraft itself, I can see these two airplanes being delivered within the first two weeks of November possibly one may deliver before the end of October but that is a long shot. This is Qatar Airways and they are very unpredictable and demanding. Yet Boeing was able to satisfy them with the first airframe delivered in early October so there is hope. There is one more in final assembly which should pull out a the end of this week (going to paint) and deliver by the end of November. One more 787 is in the EMC which is a late build and should be out on the flightline by around middle November and can be delivered in early December. My prediction for November:
Qatar Airways - 2 787s will be delivered.
United Airlines - Another big one. United just announced that they are delaying the implementation of it 787 schedule (domestic) as result of delays in the delivery of one 787 that was due in October. They are delaying the launch of some 787 domestic service that was supposed to start on November 4th. Currently the 2nd 787s for United is in test flights and has had two flights already. There are two more on the flightline both of which still need to make their first flights. I do think that Boeing can get both these airplanes in the air by early to mid November and have a least two of them delivered to United by the end of the month with one delivered in the 1st two weeks of November. The other 2 787s that are in change incorporation should be ready to be delivered by the end of December. My prediction for November:
United Airlines - 2 787 will be delivered.
This is a total of 11 787s delivered in November which is attainable. Many of these airplanes are in test flights or customer flights and a few are about to enter the test flight program prior to handover. Still the first two weeks of November should see quite a few 787 deliveries being madeto customers but weather will determine the pace of on going deliveries.
A bit of programming note...given that I am in the middle of Hurricane Sandy's target area I may be offline for up to a couple of weeks depending on when and if power needs to be restored. Hopefully it won't be too bad but I will try to update information, particularly on the tables via cell phone which is not particularly easy to do. Thank you for your patience.
Monday, October 22, 2012
6 787s fly for the first time in 5 days
From Oct. 18 to Oct. 22 inclusive, Boeing took advantage of a break in the weather to fly 6 different production 787s on their B-1 flights. The aircraft were obviously ready but bad weather forced a hold on all B-1 flights. Thus when the break came Boeing released the planes for flight. However because of the delay, I expect that none of these airplanes will be able to be delivered by the end of the month. It does potentially set up November as a big month for deliveries but there may be a knock on efffect as 787s that were scheduled for flights around this time will be pushed back to later this month and certainly into early November.
10/18/2012
ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - LOT Polish Airlines
10/20/2012
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) - Hainan Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) - United Airlines
10/21/2012
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India
10/22/2012
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways
In addition to the increase B-1 flights, there was a very noticable increase in follow on flights of other airframes that have already flown. There included a C-1 flight for ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) which is expected to be delivered to Air India before the end of the month, hopefully).
Given the increased activity, however, I do not expect a lot of deliveries in the next 8 days. There are really 3 airplanes that are ready for delivery or will be ready for delivery. There is a possibility of one more airplane that could be delivered this month but it only has an outside chance.
Ready or almost ready for delivery:
ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB) - LAN
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) - Ethiopian
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India (only had one C-1 flight may need more)
The one airframe that might make it for delivery by the end of this month is:
ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) - ANA
The last aircraft still needs to perform customer flights and I am not sure if it has completed all the Boeing test flights at this point even though it has flown twice.
It is apparent that if Boeing can maintain an aggressive flying schedule in November, they can have a lot delivieries in that month. Much depends on the aircraft condition after completing final assembly/change incorporation as well as weather and the ability to work through the backlog of planes that are finished and need to go through testing.
10/18/2012
ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - LOT Polish Airlines
10/20/2012
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) - Hainan Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) - United Airlines
10/21/2012
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India
10/22/2012
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways
In addition to the increase B-1 flights, there was a very noticable increase in follow on flights of other airframes that have already flown. There included a C-1 flight for ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) which is expected to be delivered to Air India before the end of the month, hopefully).
Given the increased activity, however, I do not expect a lot of deliveries in the next 8 days. There are really 3 airplanes that are ready for delivery or will be ready for delivery. There is a possibility of one more airplane that could be delivered this month but it only has an outside chance.
Ready or almost ready for delivery:
ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB) - LAN
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) - Ethiopian
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India (only had one C-1 flight may need more)
The one airframe that might make it for delivery by the end of this month is:
ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) - ANA
The last aircraft still needs to perform customer flights and I am not sure if it has completed all the Boeing test flights at this point even though it has flown twice.
It is apparent that if Boeing can maintain an aggressive flying schedule in November, they can have a lot delivieries in that month. Much depends on the aircraft condition after completing final assembly/change incorporation as well as weather and the ability to work through the backlog of planes that are finished and need to go through testing.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Several 787s getting set for 1st flight
Boeing seems to be ready to fly several 787s on their first flights as well as continue flight testing several more in preparation for delivery. As of today Boeing has delivered 29 planes to 7 worldwide customers.
There have been several Flightaware alerts for several 787s that are sitting at Everett and Charleston.
Yesterday there were several Flightaware alerts for several 787 B-1 flights. Those that were slated to fly were ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) for Qatar Airways, ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) for LOT Polish Airlines, ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) for United Airlines. However by the end of the day only ZA270 flew while the other two conducted taxi tests around Everett. Today there were Flightaware alerts for 2 B-1 flights: ZA430 (LN 73. B-2728) for Hainan Airlines and ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) for Air India, the later being the third Charleston built 787 which should deliver sometime around November. As of now these 787s have not flown and have probably ran taxi tests around their respective airfields. I also expect that ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) for Ethiopian should also take flight by sometime next week from Everett. This is an indication that Boeing is trying to aggressively ramp up the delivery process once the airplanes have left the EMC or the assembly line. I would expect that within the next couple of day that all these airplanes will fly as well as continued flight test activity from the airplanes that have already flown in preparation for delivery. The big factor nowadays is the weather around Washington State which is keeping the airplanes grounded (today for instance).
Meanwhile production and re-work continues at a pretty good pace with ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) for LAN and ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) for United Airlines both entering the paint hangars at Everett. Assembly continues to pace at a little over 4/month. New airframes are being loaded in Everett at about 1 every week with the next one slated to load on Oct. 25. There are currently two 787s that are ready for delivery one for LAN (ZA537, LN 74, CC-BBB) and one for Ethiopian (ZA264, LN 75, ET-AOS).
There have been several Flightaware alerts for several 787s that are sitting at Everett and Charleston.
Yesterday there were several Flightaware alerts for several 787 B-1 flights. Those that were slated to fly were ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) for Qatar Airways, ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) for LOT Polish Airlines, ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) for United Airlines. However by the end of the day only ZA270 flew while the other two conducted taxi tests around Everett. Today there were Flightaware alerts for 2 B-1 flights: ZA430 (LN 73. B-2728) for Hainan Airlines and ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) for Air India, the later being the third Charleston built 787 which should deliver sometime around November. As of now these 787s have not flown and have probably ran taxi tests around their respective airfields. I also expect that ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) for Ethiopian should also take flight by sometime next week from Everett. This is an indication that Boeing is trying to aggressively ramp up the delivery process once the airplanes have left the EMC or the assembly line. I would expect that within the next couple of day that all these airplanes will fly as well as continued flight test activity from the airplanes that have already flown in preparation for delivery. The big factor nowadays is the weather around Washington State which is keeping the airplanes grounded (today for instance).
Meanwhile production and re-work continues at a pretty good pace with ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) for LAN and ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) for United Airlines both entering the paint hangars at Everett. Assembly continues to pace at a little over 4/month. New airframes are being loaded in Everett at about 1 every week with the next one slated to load on Oct. 25. There are currently two 787s that are ready for delivery one for LAN (ZA537, LN 74, CC-BBB) and one for Ethiopian (ZA264, LN 75, ET-AOS).
Friday, October 12, 2012
Boeing gets a break in the weather, send up 3 787s for flight tests
For the last few days Boeing has been trying to fly two 787s on their first (B-1) flights. The weather in the Pacific Northwest has been an issue but the flight test team caught a break today and were able to send up two planes today along with a third 787 making its C-2 (customer acceptance) flight.
Both ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA and ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern made their B-1 flights today as Boeing attempts to deliver them by month end. Additionally ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) made its second customer (C-2) flight today. It is hoped that this airplane should deliver late next week. It is also hoped that Boeing will be able to deliver ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) to Air India. This airplane also needs to fly customer flights but should be able to do so during the coming week if the schedule delivery is to take place in about 10 days of so. Boeing isn't scheduled to deliver another 787 from Charleston until November so they have time to conduct B-1 on the next 787 built there (ZA239, LN 60, VT-ANK for Air India), I suspect a B-1 flight of this airplane around the end of the month. Another 787 that is expected to be delivered is LAN's 2nd 787. That airplane is scheduled for an Oct. 18th delivery but has made only one test flight. Boeing will need to do a couple more flight as well as LAN customer flights in the next 6 days. This one may actually slide into the following week.
Both ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA and ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) for China Southern made their B-1 flights today as Boeing attempts to deliver them by month end. Additionally ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) made its second customer (C-2) flight today. It is hoped that this airplane should deliver late next week. It is also hoped that Boeing will be able to deliver ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) to Air India. This airplane also needs to fly customer flights but should be able to do so during the coming week if the schedule delivery is to take place in about 10 days of so. Boeing isn't scheduled to deliver another 787 from Charleston until November so they have time to conduct B-1 on the next 787 built there (ZA239, LN 60, VT-ANK for Air India), I suspect a B-1 flight of this airplane around the end of the month. Another 787 that is expected to be delivered is LAN's 2nd 787. That airplane is scheduled for an Oct. 18th delivery but has made only one test flight. Boeing will need to do a couple more flight as well as LAN customer flights in the next 6 days. This one may actually slide into the following week.
Official handover of Qatar's first 787 sliding into November
According to a new post by Strategic Aero's Saj Ahmad, the official handover of Qatar's first 787 will slide into early November. The cause is the delayed contractual delivery to Qatar was due to the delays caused by the Thales IFE that Qatar ordered. Currently, the aircraft is in Victorville, CA undergoing installation of the IFE. It is unclear what effects this may have on future deliveries to Qatar Airways but Saj is saying that at least one 787 planned for delivery to the Doha based carrier will be delivered early next year. There are currently 2 787s for Qatar Airways waiting on the Boeing flightline and I'm not sure how the deliveries of these two airplanes is affected. One of the planes has flown its first flight while the other has not.
It is important to note that despite the public flogging by Akbar Al Baker, Qatar isn't holding Boeing responsible for the current delays as the delays are the fault of Thales.
It is important to note that despite the public flogging by Akbar Al Baker, Qatar isn't holding Boeing responsible for the current delays as the delays are the fault of Thales.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Boeing trying to reduce the stored 787 backlog
Now that Boeing has achieved the 5/month assembly rate on the 787 program, the challenge is to make sure the higher rate doesn't contribute to the increase in the number of stored 787 at Everett. This backlog is about $20bn worth of WIP inventory on Boeing's balance sheet and they have made great progress in the last couple of months to reduce it.
The key, however, is to make sure that this inventory doesn't increase because of the higher rate. The way to do that is to make sure that 787 deliveries exceed the assembly rate each and every month so that the stored inventory is reduced to 0 (this should happen sometime around the 2nd half of 2014).
This month so far Boeing has delivered 3 787s including one straight from final assembly. Boeing has the potential to deliver 4 more 787s straight from the Everett line (these four are already on the flightline with 2 of the four already having flown) in addition to several frames that went through change incorporation at the EMC. While the challenges remain, delivery rates will again be dependent on Boeing's resources as well as the readiness of certain customers to accept delivery of the frames.
The key, however, is to make sure that this inventory doesn't increase because of the higher rate. The way to do that is to make sure that 787 deliveries exceed the assembly rate each and every month so that the stored inventory is reduced to 0 (this should happen sometime around the 2nd half of 2014).
This month so far Boeing has delivered 3 787s including one straight from final assembly. Boeing has the potential to deliver 4 more 787s straight from the Everett line (these four are already on the flightline with 2 of the four already having flown) in addition to several frames that went through change incorporation at the EMC. While the challenges remain, delivery rates will again be dependent on Boeing's resources as well as the readiness of certain customers to accept delivery of the frames.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
787 Production Rate Steadily Increasing
The 787 production rate is steadily increasing as Boeing looks to load a new 787 into the assembly tooling in the two assembly bays at Everett once every 7 days (at least for the next one month). ZA272 (LN 86, SP-LRC) for Polish LOT is due to load into position 1 in 40-26 on Oct. 11. One week later on Oct. 18, ZA273 (LN 87, SP-LRD) also for LOT will load in position 1 in 40-24. Finally on Oct. 25 ZA274 (LN 88, SP-LRE) will load in position 1 in 40-26. This rate (excluding Charleston built 787s) is about 4 per month. Charleston looks to be running at about 0.66 airplanes every month (2 airplanes every 3 months) though it is expected that they will hit one per month shortly. Given these rates, Boeing is very close, if not already there, at producing 787s at a rate of 5/month.
The issues facing them is now clearing the backlog both at Everett and Charleston. Between the two delivery centers there are 16 787s that are ready for pre-flight or are into their test flight activities. Boeing has already delivered 3 787s this month but tentatively have 9 more deliveries scheduled between Oct. 18 and Oct. 26th. It is possible for these 9 aircraft to be delivered but it is all dependent on both factors that are within Boeing's control (technical issues, allocation of resources needed to prepare and test fly the assembled 787s) as well as factor's out of Boeing's control (dealing with mercurial customers such as Air India, Qatar Airways and the country of China). Several handovers should be a no brainer: Ethiopian Airlines (2), United Airlines (1), ANA (1) and LAN (1). That is 5 airplanes right there. The ones that are questionable are Qatar Airways (2), Air India (1) and Hainan Airlines (1), and China Southern (1). With the Chinese carriers, the issue is the certification from CAAC (China's Civil Aviation Authority). It is unknown what the issues despite FAA and EASA certification. CAAC has to certify the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.
Lastly, Boeing has pulled out two 787s from 40-26. ZA271 (LN 78 (SP-LRB) for Polish LOT went to the paint hangar at Everett and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines was pulled out to the 40-51 ramp area. Given the extended time that these two airplanes spent in final assembly I expect that there are very few to no assembly tasks remaining on these frames. Additionally ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA conducted taxi runs but could not perform its first flight due to weather consideration as Boeing has stringent weather requirements for B-1 flights.
The issues facing them is now clearing the backlog both at Everett and Charleston. Between the two delivery centers there are 16 787s that are ready for pre-flight or are into their test flight activities. Boeing has already delivered 3 787s this month but tentatively have 9 more deliveries scheduled between Oct. 18 and Oct. 26th. It is possible for these 9 aircraft to be delivered but it is all dependent on both factors that are within Boeing's control (technical issues, allocation of resources needed to prepare and test fly the assembled 787s) as well as factor's out of Boeing's control (dealing with mercurial customers such as Air India, Qatar Airways and the country of China). Several handovers should be a no brainer: Ethiopian Airlines (2), United Airlines (1), ANA (1) and LAN (1). That is 5 airplanes right there. The ones that are questionable are Qatar Airways (2), Air India (1) and Hainan Airlines (1), and China Southern (1). With the Chinese carriers, the issue is the certification from CAAC (China's Civil Aviation Authority). It is unknown what the issues despite FAA and EASA certification. CAAC has to certify the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.
Lastly, Boeing has pulled out two 787s from 40-26. ZA271 (LN 78 (SP-LRB) for Polish LOT went to the paint hangar at Everett and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines was pulled out to the 40-51 ramp area. Given the extended time that these two airplanes spent in final assembly I expect that there are very few to no assembly tasks remaining on these frames. Additionally ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) for ANA conducted taxi runs but could not perform its first flight due to weather consideration as Boeing has stringent weather requirements for B-1 flights.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Boeing delivers Qatar Airways' First 787
Just confirmed to me from Boeing that the company has indeed delivered the first 787 to Qatar Airways. This aircraft is ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) will fly to Victorville for a couple weeks to finish work on the Thales IFE system and then return to Everett where there will be a formal delivery ceremony around 17th or 18th before the aircraft is flown away to Doha. Boeing now has delivered 29 total 787 to 7 customers. The delivery was a contractual delivery meaning that paperwork was signed and the customer made the final payment on the aircraft. Thus far in 2012 Boeing has delivered 26 787s.
787 Production Update and 1st 787 Delivery from Charleston
Boeing is continuing to make steady progress in pushing out new and re-worked 787 during this past week.
In the EMC, ZA287 (LN 52, N20903) for United went inside the EMC hangar from a spot on the EMC ramp to continue the change incorporation process. With the reshuffling that went on inside th hangar, ZA286 (LN 50, N20902), also for United, went to the paint hangar and will start the pre-flight program at Everett.
Boeing has completed the first 787 to go through the surge line though I'm still trying to get a handle on the location. Currently I believe that ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC), for LAN, is in 40-26 position 4 for final assembly activities and aqueous wash but should be going to paint very soon. The other 787 in paint is ZA290 (LN 77, N20906), again another United Dreamliner but that should be coming out of paint very soon thus making way for ZA538. I don't have information on where ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) for LOT Polish Airlines and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines currently after the line move in 40-24. Boeing has loaded ZA183 (LN 84, J8829J) for Japan Airlines into position 1 on 40-24 surge line to start final assembly.
At Charleston, ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) finally saw daylight and was rolled out of the final assembly building last Sunday (Sept. 30) to start pre-flight in advance of its eventual delivery to Air India. Brendan Kearney of the Post and Courier also reported that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) also for Air India and the next Charleston built 787 to be delivered should be returning from Ft. Worth where it was being painted by this weekend. With the line move, Boeing has 4 787 in assembly at the Charleston plant with another 3 on the flightline going through pre-flight or pre-delivery. It is anticipated that Air India should take delivery of another Charleston built 787 late this month but that is all dependent on the internal situation at Air India and the issues it confronts in dealing with the Government of India.
Speaking of Air India, again, Boeing did make delivery to Air India of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the first 787 built at Charleston. While the milestone was notable so was the fact that this was a very low key delivery ceremony possibly arising out of the tortured path and bad feelings in arriving at this moment. No big speeches by politicians or dignitaries at this delivery ceremony. We'll see how future delivereis to Air India goes but rumor has it that Air India needed bridge financing for this airplane so I have to wonder how smooth future deliveries to this airline will be. Here's Boeing's Press Release on today's delivery:
In the EMC, ZA287 (LN 52, N20903) for United went inside the EMC hangar from a spot on the EMC ramp to continue the change incorporation process. With the reshuffling that went on inside th hangar, ZA286 (LN 50, N20902), also for United, went to the paint hangar and will start the pre-flight program at Everett.
Boeing has completed the first 787 to go through the surge line though I'm still trying to get a handle on the location. Currently I believe that ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC), for LAN, is in 40-26 position 4 for final assembly activities and aqueous wash but should be going to paint very soon. The other 787 in paint is ZA290 (LN 77, N20906), again another United Dreamliner but that should be coming out of paint very soon thus making way for ZA538. I don't have information on where ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) for LOT Polish Airlines and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines currently after the line move in 40-24. Boeing has loaded ZA183 (LN 84, J8829J) for Japan Airlines into position 1 on 40-24 surge line to start final assembly.
At Charleston, ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) finally saw daylight and was rolled out of the final assembly building last Sunday (Sept. 30) to start pre-flight in advance of its eventual delivery to Air India. Brendan Kearney of the Post and Courier also reported that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) also for Air India and the next Charleston built 787 to be delivered should be returning from Ft. Worth where it was being painted by this weekend. With the line move, Boeing has 4 787 in assembly at the Charleston plant with another 3 on the flightline going through pre-flight or pre-delivery. It is anticipated that Air India should take delivery of another Charleston built 787 late this month but that is all dependent on the internal situation at Air India and the issues it confronts in dealing with the Government of India.
Speaking of Air India, again, Boeing did make delivery to Air India of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the first 787 built at Charleston. While the milestone was notable so was the fact that this was a very low key delivery ceremony possibly arising out of the tortured path and bad feelings in arriving at this moment. No big speeches by politicians or dignitaries at this delivery ceremony. We'll see how future delivereis to Air India goes but rumor has it that Air India needed bridge financing for this airplane so I have to wonder how smooth future deliveries to this airline will be. Here's Boeing's Press Release on today's delivery:
Boeing Delivers First South Carolina-built 787 Dreamliner
Historic delivery to Air India begins a new chapter of Boeing airplane production in region
NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C., Oct. 5, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today marked a historic milestone with delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner built at its North Charleston, S.C., facility to Air India.
The delivery continues the momentum of the 787 Dreamliner's entry into revenue service by customers globally and marks the beginning of a new era of commercial airplane production in South Carolina.
"Within just three years of breaking ground, we have flown and delivered our first airplane built at Boeing South Carolina," said Jack Jones, vice president and general manager, Boeing South Carolina. "This is a tribute to the remarkable Boeing South Carolina team and the support we have received from our airline customers, our supplier partners and the Boeing enterprise, as well as the relationship we have with the State of South Carolina."
Work on the Boeing South Carolina Final Assembly and Delivery Center began in November 2009. Production of the first South Carolina-built 787 began in mid-2011 and the completed airplane rolled out of the factory in April.
Boeing South Carolina fabricates, integrates and assembles the midbody and aftbody fuselage sections for all 787 Dreamliners. Completed sections are joined in South Carolina Final Assembly, or transported via the Dreamlifter to 787 Final Assembly in Everett, Wash.
"We're delighted to be the first airline in the world to take delivery of a Dreamliner from this beautiful factory and look forward to taking many more," said Air India Board Member K.M. Unni. "The 787 is an airplane with unmatched efficiency and technology, which will help in our airline's turnaround plan."
Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president of Asia Pacific and India Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, praised Boeing's long, successful partnership with Air India, including delivery in September of its first two of 27 Dreamliners. "With two 787s successfully introduced to Air India's fleet, passengers are enjoying breakthrough features such as larger windows, lower cabin altitude and unprecedented flying experience," said Keskar.
Today's delivery marks the 28th 787 Dreamliner delivered to date. Boeing South Carolina will increase final assembly production to three 787s per month by the end of 2013.
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is the first commercial jetliner made primarily of advanced composite materials. It offers exceptional passenger comfort features, including cleaner air, a lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, bigger windows that dim electronically and more overhead storage space. Airlines appreciate its fuel efficiency, which is 20 percent better than other airplanes in its class and results in 20 percent lower carbon emissions.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Air India looks to receive first Charleston built 787 tomorrow and other delivery information
Brendan Kearney of the Charleston's Post and Courier, reports that Boeing will deliver the first 787 (first commercial jet airplane) built outside of the Puget Sound region tomorrow to Air India. The delivery was held up (again) due to Government of India bureaucracy. According Kearney, Boeing spokesperson told him that the airplane will be delivered tomorrow morning at about 8:30AM EDT in a "low key" ceremony that will end 90 minutes later. There will be a few minor officials at the "ceremony." The aircraft is due to fly away to India on Oct. 6th. The aircraft ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI).
In other delivery news, a posting on Airliners.net revealed a tentative plan for 787 deliveries in October. Here they are listed BUT PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THESE ARE TENTATIVE AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SHIFT. PLEASE DO NOT CRITICIZE IF THE PLAN DOESN'T MATCH REALITY. NO ONE, INCLUDING BOEING HAS MUCH CONTROL OVER FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL DELIVERY DATE.
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ)
ANA
ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
Ethiopian Airlines
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP)
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
Hainan Airlines
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
LAN
ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
Qatar Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
United Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906)
Possible Delivery in October:
China Southern Airlines
ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727)
Through October 3, 2012 Boeing has delivered 27 787, 24 in 2012 alone and 1 in October.
In other delivery news, a posting on Airliners.net revealed a tentative plan for 787 deliveries in October. Here they are listed BUT PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THESE ARE TENTATIVE AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SHIFT. PLEASE DO NOT CRITICIZE IF THE PLAN DOESN'T MATCH REALITY. NO ONE, INCLUDING BOEING HAS MUCH CONTROL OVER FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL DELIVERY DATE.
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ)
ANA
ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
Ethiopian Airlines
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP)
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
Hainan Airlines
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
LAN
ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
Qatar Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
United Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906)
Possible Delivery in October:
China Southern Airlines
ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727)
Through October 3, 2012 Boeing has delivered 27 787, 24 in 2012 alone and 1 in October.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Aspire Aviation: 787-8 still overweight, 787-9 is not
In a wide ranging article, Aspire Aviation revealed today several newsworthy aspects of the 787s program and the future of the variants of the base 787-8 aircraft.
First off the article addresses the 787-8 status. While the program is now well into production and delivery of the base 787-8 model, Boeing is planning to hit the 5/month milestone on November. It is hoped that the ramp up to 7/month will occur in March/April 2013. Assuming that Boeing is producing 5 787 for the first 5 months of 2013 and 7 for the last 7 months (there's a lag between the increased production rate and delivery of those airplanes at the increase rate thus I'm assuming that the 10/rate airplanes won't be delivered until January 2014) Boeing can deliver 84 787s not including 787s from the EMC.
The weight of the787-8 is still an issue with the current production block still at about 4 tonnes overweight according to Aspire's sources. It was hoped that by the 90th aircraft (LN 90) that the weight would be down to the original spec weight but this appears to have slipped. It is unknown when Boeing will achieve the original spec weight though the culprit seems to be a shortage of parts that are weight optimized for both the 787-9 and the 787-8.
Speaking of the 787-9 this variant looks to be doing extremely well from a weight and development point of view. The word is that the first 787-9s will achieve weight targets set by Boeing with further production blocks coming in underweight by around 2%. This is all a result of the testing done on the 787-8 and understanding what was over-engineered. At some point there will be weight savings that will be put back into the 787-8 but it does appear it will take a while. ZB001 (LN 126) will be the first 787-9 that is to be assembled and it does look like that this should take place starting around February or March. What is unclear at this point is how many 787-9s will be part of the testing and certification program. I don't think it will be 6 but perhaps 2-3 airframes. Already Boeing suppliers are producing some of the fuselage sections of the 787-9.
Aspire's report also touched upon the 787-10X which is now rumored to be targeted for an authority to offer by the Boeing Board of Directors as early as this month. The 2nd stretch variant will build upon the 787-9 using the same wing and able to fit 323 passengers in a 3 class layout. This model along with the 787-9 can effectively kill the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 while also severely hurting the sales of the A350-800, A350-900 and even the A350-1000 all of which are under severe schedule pressure as it is. There are numerous European, Asian and Middle Eastern customers that are salivating at the thought of the 787-10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing has a few surprise orders in hand by the end of the year for this model if it has the authority to offer. Aspire's speculates that with a launch late this year, Boeing will have a firm configuration by the end of 2nd quarter of 2014. roll out of the test aircraft in 2017 and EIS in 2018/2019 though I would think that with a rollout in 2017 Boeing should have the ability to achieve EIS in 2018 at the latest since it is a straight forward stretch variant. It shouldn't take 2 years to test and certify a simple stretch variant of the 787-9.
First off the article addresses the 787-8 status. While the program is now well into production and delivery of the base 787-8 model, Boeing is planning to hit the 5/month milestone on November. It is hoped that the ramp up to 7/month will occur in March/April 2013. Assuming that Boeing is producing 5 787 for the first 5 months of 2013 and 7 for the last 7 months (there's a lag between the increased production rate and delivery of those airplanes at the increase rate thus I'm assuming that the 10/rate airplanes won't be delivered until January 2014) Boeing can deliver 84 787s not including 787s from the EMC.
The weight of the787-8 is still an issue with the current production block still at about 4 tonnes overweight according to Aspire's sources. It was hoped that by the 90th aircraft (LN 90) that the weight would be down to the original spec weight but this appears to have slipped. It is unknown when Boeing will achieve the original spec weight though the culprit seems to be a shortage of parts that are weight optimized for both the 787-9 and the 787-8.
Speaking of the 787-9 this variant looks to be doing extremely well from a weight and development point of view. The word is that the first 787-9s will achieve weight targets set by Boeing with further production blocks coming in underweight by around 2%. This is all a result of the testing done on the 787-8 and understanding what was over-engineered. At some point there will be weight savings that will be put back into the 787-8 but it does appear it will take a while. ZB001 (LN 126) will be the first 787-9 that is to be assembled and it does look like that this should take place starting around February or March. What is unclear at this point is how many 787-9s will be part of the testing and certification program. I don't think it will be 6 but perhaps 2-3 airframes. Already Boeing suppliers are producing some of the fuselage sections of the 787-9.
Aspire's report also touched upon the 787-10X which is now rumored to be targeted for an authority to offer by the Boeing Board of Directors as early as this month. The 2nd stretch variant will build upon the 787-9 using the same wing and able to fit 323 passengers in a 3 class layout. This model along with the 787-9 can effectively kill the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 while also severely hurting the sales of the A350-800, A350-900 and even the A350-1000 all of which are under severe schedule pressure as it is. There are numerous European, Asian and Middle Eastern customers that are salivating at the thought of the 787-10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing has a few surprise orders in hand by the end of the year for this model if it has the authority to offer. Aspire's speculates that with a launch late this year, Boeing will have a firm configuration by the end of 2nd quarter of 2014. roll out of the test aircraft in 2017 and EIS in 2018/2019 though I would think that with a rollout in 2017 Boeing should have the ability to achieve EIS in 2018 at the latest since it is a straight forward stretch variant. It shouldn't take 2 years to test and certify a simple stretch variant of the 787-9.
Strategic Aero: Qatar 787 delivery to come very soon
According to Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research, Boeing will make a contractual delivery of the Qatar Airways' first 787 this week (today, tomorrow, or day after tomorrow). The aircraft is ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB). A delivery ceremony will occur around Oct. 17th with fly away to Doha soon after that. He has high confidence that this will occur during the next two weeks. A second source confirms that delivery will be made well before Oct. 17th (didn't have a date).
The reason of the delay are issues with the IFE supplied by Thales. U Turn Al's outburst was for the benefit of the media (Qatar privately is happy with the GEnx engines) but I wouldn't discount any other motives such as trying to get more compensation from either GE or Boeing.
I'll keep my ears to the ground to hear about any contractual delivery made this week to Qatar Airways.
The reason of the delay are issues with the IFE supplied by Thales. U Turn Al's outburst was for the benefit of the media (Qatar privately is happy with the GEnx engines) but I wouldn't discount any other motives such as trying to get more compensation from either GE or Boeing.
I'll keep my ears to the ground to hear about any contractual delivery made this week to Qatar Airways.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Qatar Airways delaying 787 delivery
Well U Turn Al (Akbar Al-Baker for the uninitiated), the CEO of Qatar Airways, is at it again. The bane of both Boeing and Airbus is now saying that Qatar Airways won't accept any 787s until the FMS (fan mid shaft) in each of his 787s are replaced. Currently 10% of the 787s he ordered is outside at Everett waiting to be delivered. The demand defies logic in the face of the investigation and recommendations made by the NTSB, FAA, GE and Boeing. Thus far the cracks of the FMS is attributable (it appears) to the coating on the FMS. GE is altering the way it applies the coating but it does not appear that the FMS has to be changed out in total unless crack have been discovered. The FA also has put out recommendations for airlines to inspect the FMS every 90 days for cracks. With action on the issues facing the GEnx engines, airlines are continuing to fly the engine on both the 787 and 747. U Turn Al is trying to leverage this issue for more compensation from GE it appears.
The whole issue of the delays is further clouded by other possible reason for the delay:
1) Refurbishment of the interior after Qatar insisted that Boeing displays its first 787 at the Farnborough Air Show.
2) Wholesale change out of the interior which necessitated the aircraft to go to California to have the interior changed out by the OEM as Boeing couldn't do it.
3) Issues with the IFE/WIFI system that Qatar had bought from Thales.
So the bottom line is when will deliveries commence? A source has told me that deliveries should commence no earlier than the end of October but don't be surprised if this is pushed even beyond that. At the end of the day this is not Boeing's fault but rather the actions of a press hungry, attention seeking, egomaniacal airline executive.
Boeing is also waiting to deliver the 1st 787 built in Charleston to Air India. Once again (unsurprisingly) the delivery is being held up by the Government of India. ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) is ready to be delivered but there is no word on when from Boeing. It was expected last week but never occurred. Rumor has it that it could be this Thursday, Oct. 4th but I've heard that one before. We'll truly know when the aircraft is wheels up out of Charleston and heading for India.
On the bright side, Boeing delivered ANA's 15th 787 which was ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) on Sunday and was flown to Japan last night. Boeing is now up to 26 deliveries over all, 23 in 2012 and 7 in September.
The whole issue of the delays is further clouded by other possible reason for the delay:
1) Refurbishment of the interior after Qatar insisted that Boeing displays its first 787 at the Farnborough Air Show.
2) Wholesale change out of the interior which necessitated the aircraft to go to California to have the interior changed out by the OEM as Boeing couldn't do it.
3) Issues with the IFE/WIFI system that Qatar had bought from Thales.
So the bottom line is when will deliveries commence? A source has told me that deliveries should commence no earlier than the end of October but don't be surprised if this is pushed even beyond that. At the end of the day this is not Boeing's fault but rather the actions of a press hungry, attention seeking, egomaniacal airline executive.
Boeing is also waiting to deliver the 1st 787 built in Charleston to Air India. Once again (unsurprisingly) the delivery is being held up by the Government of India. ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) is ready to be delivered but there is no word on when from Boeing. It was expected last week but never occurred. Rumor has it that it could be this Thursday, Oct. 4th but I've heard that one before. We'll truly know when the aircraft is wheels up out of Charleston and heading for India.
On the bright side, Boeing delivered ANA's 15th 787 which was ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) on Sunday and was flown to Japan last night. Boeing is now up to 26 deliveries over all, 23 in 2012 and 7 in September.
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