787 Mid month report - January, 2015

Mid way through the 1st month of 2015, Boeing is setting it self up to deliver 10 787s. On the surface that may look like a good number especially when compared to January, 2014. However because several 787s that were supposed to be delivered late last year had been rescheduled to this month, there are expectations the deliveries in January were going to be higher than 10.  Earlier information that was received indicated 12 deliveries in January but now those deliveries were pushed to later in the first quarter.  Boeing needs to deliver a minimum of 11.5 787s per month for 2015 if it is to achieve its internal goal of delivering 138 787s.  As I had said in a previous post, I doubt that Boeing will be able to deliver 138 787s and the final number will most likely be between 125 to 130.

Thus far there are about 5 aircraft that are ready for delivery but there are also 1 more that need to conduct its B-1 flight which is a 787-9 for Virgin Atlantic and a 4 others that have yet to conduct their C-1 flights.  With 12 days left in the month it is possible for Boeing to all these aircraft tested and delivered but it will be cutting it close.  I do expect the first 787 deliveries of 2015 to start this coming week, thus again Boeing is making all its 787 deliveries in the last half of the month.

The customers that will be be receiving their first 787s include American Airlines and Scoot while AerCap (LAN) will be taking its first 787-9.

Line Number	Variable Number	Serial Number	Registration	787 Model	Customer	Operator	Delivery Date
240	ZB127	37112	9V-OJA	787-9	Scoot Pte Ltd	Scoot Pte Ltd	1/23/2015
241	ZA817	40618	N800AN	787-8	American Airlines	American Airlines	1/22/2015
250	ZA248	36291	VT-ANT	787-8	Air India	Air India	1/30/2015
252	ZA198	34853	JA839J	787-8	Japan Airlines	Japan Airlines	1/22/2015
254	ZA616	35263	C-GHQQ	787-8	Air Canada	Air Canada	1/30/2015
256	ZB029	37968	G-VOOH	787-9	Virgin Atlantic Airways	Virgin Atlantic Airways	1/30/2015
257	ZA222	36235	VH-VKI	787-8	QANTAS	Jetstar	1/26/2015
258	ZA846	36111	ET-ASG	787-8	AerCap	Ethiopian Airlines	1/30/2015
259	ZB224	35317	CC-BGA	787-9	AerCap	LAN	1/30/2015
260	ZA323	36426	G-TUIG	787-8	TUI Travel	Thomson	1/29/2015

In terms of production Boeing is well situated to roll out 10 787s (7 from Everett and 3 form North Charleston).  They are also starting final assembly on 10 787s this month with the same number as roll outs from each final assembly locations.

Interestingly, Boeing is looking to deliver 3 787-9 this month as well as roll out 3 and start final assembly of 3 787-9s this month.  I'll keep an eye on this but it does seem that for now, Boeing is going to keep the rate on the 787-9 at 3/month

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

Boeing South Carolina head Jack Jones announces retirement.

The head of Boeing's North Charleston' plant, Jack Jones announced his retirement to the Boeing South Carolina employees in an email message.  In it he intends to leave the company in May and will be on hand during the next few months to transition his responsibilities to incoming BSC head Beverly Wyse.  Currently Beverly Wyse is VP and general manager of Boeing 737 program and was previously the VP and general manger of the 767 program at Boeing.

Here is Beverly Wyse's bio from Boeing:

Beverly Wyse was named vice president and general manager of the 737
program in January 2010. In this position she is responsible for the design,
development, certification, production and delivery of the Boeing Next-Generation 737
airplane family. Wyse also is responsible for maintaining customer relationships and for
the safety and security of employees at the Renton, Wash., plant as well as its property
and equipment. 

Before this assignment, Wyse was vice president and general manager of the
767 program for more than three years. Wyse was responsible for all aspects of the 767
program as well as the Boeing Commercial Airplanes role in the competition for the U.S.
Air Force KC-X tanker program. 

Wyse previously was director of Strategy and Business Development for
Connexion by Boeing. In that assignment, she was responsible for coordinating the
development of the company’s business strategy and for identifying and pursuing new
market segments to expand the reach of the Connexion system. 

Wyse joined Connexion in August 2002 as director of Aircraft Deployment and
Installation, where she led a team responsible for the design and certification of the
Connexion service for installation aboard aircraft. 

Before joining Connexion, Wyse was director of program management for
the 757 program. She was responsible for all aspects of business operations and
program and project management. Before that, she served as a senior manager for
the Boeing twin-aisle airplane program management office. Wyse was responsible
for identifying which interior features would be offered to airline customers, for
delivery of interior systems and for project management of all new product
development. 

Wyse has a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering and a master’s degree
in business administration, both from the University of Washington in Seattle. She
graduated from the Boeing Executive Development Program in 2000.

Here is Jack Jones' email to the Boeing South Carolina employees:

Goodbye and Thank You
Today Pat Shanahan announced some leadership changes at the BCA Airplane Programs level. One of those included my decision to retire in May of this year.
 This was a bittersweet decision for me. I’m overjoyed to be able to spend more time with my wife, Karen, who retired from Boeing just last year, and do the things that we’ve talked many years of being able to do when we hit this stage in our lives. The other part of me is saddened to be leaving such an incredibly well-respected, successful corporation – one that has offered me amazing career opportunities in an industry that has been a passion of mine since early adulthood. 
 Throughout my 35-year career I have had the privilege of working on some of Boeing’s most iconic and challenging programs. The Boeing South Carolina assignment certainly qualifies as one of those programs, and has been one of the more challenging assignments I’ve had. However, thanks to you and this remarkable Boeing South Carolina team, and our unprecedented accomplishments in a relatively short period of time, I will leave with this being my most rewarding and satisfying assignment.
 Since my first day here in 2011, I’ve seen many positive changes, not only in production, quality and efficiencies, but in our teammates. Everyone at BSC is learning and growing, and doing remarkable things – turning dreams into reality at a site that just over five short years ago was two small suppliers surrounded by a lot of open land. Now look at BSC today! It’s truly amazing and each and every one of you is to thank for that.
                                  
Retirement was a hard decision for me, especially at a time when BSC is operating at an all-time high, firing on all cylinders, and proving to our early skeptics that we are truly Boeing Strong.  However my decision was certainly made easier knowing I was leaving it in the hands of a team I know well, and will never stop making this site the world class facility it is or ever retreat when faced with adversity. In other words … You Guys Rock!
 I know that you’ll continue to provide the same world-class support and attitudes to Beverly as she transitions to BSC’s new site leader over the coming months. I’ll be working closely with Bev from now until May and I have no doubt that with her long and successful history with our company and our products, combined with your talent, professionalism, and dedication, BSC’s future remains extremely bright and is in very capable hands.
 Again, thank you for this remarkable experience. I’ll be making rounds across the site with Bev over the coming months, and hope to see many of you face-to-face and shake your hands before my official exit in May.
 Jack

2015 Look Ahead for the 787

With 2014 firmly in the rear view mirror, we can start looking ahead at what's next for the 787 program.

According to sources, Boeing is planning for 138 deliveries.  Given they just finished a year where program execution was not good, the prospect of Boeing hitting 138 deliveries is a little far fetched.  They would need to execute final assembly perfectly and drive down  assembly to delivery times.  In December, if the delivery outliers (namely aircraft going to Avianca, Etihad and Azerbaijan Airways) are taken out, then Boeing was able to assemble and delivery the 787 at an average of 107 days.  This is much to long if they intend to increase the number of deliveries in 2015.  In my view Boeing should be able to deliver around 125 to 130 787s.  I'll track their progress vs. the 138 plan deliveries and their delivery guidance for 2015 as it can help gauge how well the production system is working especially in terms of their internal goals.

2015 will be notable year for a few reason.  First there will be customers taking deliveries of their first 787s as well as existing operators taking delivery of their first 787-9.  Last year Boeing managed to deliver 10 787-9.  In the new year Boeing expects to deliver a significant number of the enlarged version of the aircraft.  The expectation is for 64 deliveries of the 787-9 which will help profitability of the 787 program overall.

Here is a list of operators who will be receiving their first 787 this year:

1st Time 787 Operator

American Airlines

Kalair (Bermuda)

Korean Air

Oman Air

PrivatAir

KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines

Saudi Arabian Airlines

Scoot Pte Ltd

Tuifly Nordic

Vietnam Airlines

An a list of operators who will be receiving their first 787-9:

1st Time 787-9 Operator

Air Canada

British Airways

Japan Airlines

Kalair (Bermuda)

LAN

KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines

Saudi Arabian Airlines

Scoot Pte Ltd

Vietnam Airlines

Obviously some of these deliveries had rolled over from last year, namely American Airlines, Korean Air, and Scoot.

However, the overriding theme of the year will not just be making timely deliveries but also trying to further reduce the cost of the 787 program and that starts with reducing deferred production costs and trying to cap it at the current $25.2bn level.

Finally here's a projection of the 2015 operator deliveries:

Projected 2015 Deliveries (Operator)	Expected Total Deliveries	Actual Deliveries	Exp.Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Actual Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Expected 787-8 Deliveries	Actual 787-8 Deliveries	Expected 787-9 Deliveries	Actual 787-9 Deliveries
Aeroméxico	3				3
Air Canada	5				2		3
Air India	4				4
Air New Zealand	3						3
American Airlines	12				12
ANA	10				3		7
Arke	1				1
Avianca	3				3
British Airways	5						5
Ethiopian Airlines	3				3
Etihad Airways	4						4
Hainan Airlines	2				2
His Majesty The Sultan's Flight	1				1
Japan Airlines	6				4		2
Jetstar	4				4
Kalair (Bermuda)	1						1
Kenya Airways	3				3
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines	2						2
Korean Air	1		1		1
LAN	7						7
Norwegian Air International Ltd	1				1
Oman Air	2				2
PrivatAir	1				1
Qatar Airways	7				7
Royal Air Maroc	1				1
Saudi Arabian Airlines	1						1
Scoot Pte Ltd	10				4		6
TBD	3		3		3
Thai Airways International	2				2
Thomson	1				1
Tuifly Nordic	2				2
United Airlines	11						11
Vietnam Airlines	5						5
Virgin Atlantic Airways	7						7
Xiamen Airlines	4				4
Total	138	0	4	0	74	0	64	0

And a list of 2015 customer deliveries:

Projected 2015 Deliveries (Customer)	Expected Total Deliveries	Actual Deliveries	Exp.Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Actual Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Expected 787-8 Deliveries	Actual 787-8 Deliveries	Expected 787-9 Deliveries	Actual 787-9 Deliveries
AerCap	12				5		7
Aeroméxico	1				1
Air Canada	5				2		3
Air India	4				4
Air New Zealand	3						3
American Airlines	12				12
ANA	10				3		7
Avianca	3				3
BBJ	1				1
British Airways	5						5
CIT Leasing	2				2
Etihad Airways	4						4
Hainan Airlines	2				2
Japan Airlines	6				4		2
Kalair (Bermuda)	1						1
Kenya Airways	3				3
Korean Air	1		1		1
LAN	2						2
Norwegian Air International Ltd	1				1
Oman Air	2				2
PrivatAir	1				1
QANTAS	4				4
Qatar Airways	7				7
Royal Air Maroc	1				1
Saudi Arabian Airlines	1						1
Scoot Pte Ltd	10				4		6
TBD	3		3		3
TUI Travel	4				4
United Airlines	11						11
Vietnam Airlines	5						5
Virgin Atlantic Airways	7						7
Xiamen Airlines	4				4
Total	138	0	4	0	74	0	64	0

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

Undelivered Air Canada 787 heading to Iqaluit, Canada, Why?

So this morning, a lot of 787 watcher, including myself observed that Boeing is sending a 787 that is scheduled to be delivered to Air Canada later this month to Iqaluit, Canada.  I'm at a loss to explain why though I'm going to speculate.

Iqaluit has an airport that used for extreme cold weather testing of aircraft.  Boeing has done cold weather testing on the 787 so this may be additional testing of a fully kitted out Air Canada 787 being done for the airline.  The aircraft ZA616 (LN 254, C-GHQQ) was flown to Portland, Or. for painting and then to Boeing Field which is unusual except Boeing's Test Flight group is headquartered there.  It is possible that the test flight crews were fitting out the aircraft with test flight equipment and the engineers were running tests prior to flying to Canada.  Again this is speculation on my part but it's the best possible explanation.

787 2014 Year End Report - Boeing finishes 2014 with 114 787 deliveries

Boeing finished 2014 with a typical December delivery rush including handing over 18 787s during December 2014.  This is a new 787 delivery record which surpasses 15 787 that was delivered in June of this year in order to make mid year delivery goals.

Here are the 787 numbers thus far:

228 - the total number of 787 that have been delivered to customers since deliveries began in 2011
114 - the total number of 787s delivered in 2014
35 - the total number of 787s delivered in the 4th quarter
18 - the total number of 787s delivered in December, 2014
118 - the total number of 787s that started final assembly in 2014
120 - the total number of 787s rolled out the 2 787 assembly halls
10 - the total number of 787-9s delivered in 2014
104 - the total number of 787-8s delivered in 2014
1.05 - the efficiency of the 787 production system in 2014 (the number should be below 1 to indicate an efficient production system)
0.97 - the efficiency of the North Charleston final assembly
1.09 - the efficiency of the Everett final assembly (includes both the main Everett and surge lines).

Boeing overall did well on the 787 program in 2014 though it does remain to be seen how they've been able to handle deferred production costs. Boeing did exceed their guidance by 4 aircraft though they were planning to deliver 120 787s in 2014.  Several had to be deferred to 2015 for various reasons including the lack of seats for completed aircraft. The fact that the production efficiency is above 1 indicates that the the production system is still not stable.  The difficulties that with traveled work and the need to re-hire temporary workers in North Charleston highlighted the ongoing production system issues that continue to plague the 787 program.  Even now aircraft that have finished final assembly are still worked on to complete assembly tasks.

Still Boeing was able to flawlessly execute on the 787-9, as well as get the production rate up to 10/month despite issues coming out of the North Charleston campus with traveled work.  Deferred production cost has increased to over $25bn as Boeing stockpiled parts to mitigate shortages and reduce traveled work.

787s were delivered to first time new operators including:

Air Canada
Air New Zealand
Arke
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian
Thai Airways International
Virgin Atlantic
Xiamen

Plus new BBJ owners

December's delivery count was unusually large due to the delayed delivery of several 787s to Avianca (4) and Azerbaijan Airlines (2).  Earlier this year I was projecting that Boeing would deliver 120 787s.  Several were deferred due to delays with seats as well as knock on effects from previous delays.  Notably American Airlines and Scoot were to receive their first 787s in 2014 are now expected to receive them in 2015.  One early build 787 for Korean Airlines (VIP) was ready for delivery in 2014 but is now taped and sealed at the Everett Modification Center.  The fact that this aircraft is not being worked on and is sealed indicates that there is an unknown issue(s) holding up delivery to Korean Airlines.  This aircraft is to be used as a government VIP aircraft and it is possible the delay can be attributed to the finished interior that is to be installed in the aircraft including classified military gear though this is speculation on my part.

Boeing has set it self up for a 2015 rather well but issues still remain including deferred production cost and continued traveled work.  If they are able to over come these issues then we should see a high number of 787 deliveries in 2015 compared to 2014.

Stay tuned for my 787 2015 look ahead which will be out soon.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

Boeing meets 787 delivery guidance for 2014

With the delivery of the second 787 for Azerbaijan Airlines, Boeing had met their 787 delivery guidance of 110 for 2014.  The aircraft manufacturer isn't done and should be able to deliver 4 more 787s including 2 787-9s.  These aircraft all have had their first customer flights though there may be additional customer flights required and these should deliver starting early next week.

In a related note: Boeing pushed out the last 787 to be built in 2014.  The aircraft is for American Airlines and should deliver around March.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing delivers first 787 to Avianca....finally

Update from my earlier post.   Avianca has finally taken possession of its first 787 yesterday.  The aircraft ZA665 (LN 217, N780AV) was reported at the Everett Delivery Center by sources. This indicates that the aircraft is due to depart from Everett soon.

This aircraft had a very long gestation period at Everett spending over 6 months from the start of final assembly to delivery at Everett.  It is suspected that there were seat issues but also financing issues that held up delivery.  Avianca is expected to take three more 787s before the end of the month.

Seats and Financing - hold ups to 787 deliveries in December

Boeing's aggressive 787 delivery schedule is being threatened by two issues: availability of BFE (buyer furnished equipment) namely the premium seats from Zodiac but more importantly the ability of certain airlines to fund the final payment to Boeing upon delivery.  Most of the aircraft's purchase price is paid upon delivery.  The seat issue has already shifted several deliveries into January.

For some carriers with less than stellar cashflow, obtaining the financing to fund this final payment has been tough.  In particular Avianca and Azerbaijan Airlines have had aircraft that are all set to deliver yet are still sitting on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.  The delivery dates have been repeatedly moved to the right and there hasn't been any further test flights nor any need for further test flights unless the delays take much longer at which point Boeing would have to fly a FCF (functional check flight) to make sure that the aircraft and it's systems still all check out.

Avianca has 4 787s on the flightline with 3 ready to be delivered.  Azerbaijan has both 787s that they ordered ready to be delivered as well.  The delays have been driven by the customers and not Boeing yet represents 6 aircraft that could be added to their year end and month end revenue totals.  Boeing is trying to keep the delivery schedule for these 6 airplanes in December and it does appear that they have time especially since the issues doesn't appear to be technical.

787 December Mid Month Report

It's already December 15th and thus far I can confirm that Boeing has delivered 5 787s thus far but I am waiting on confirmation on 3 additional deliveries to Avianca (2) and Azerbaijan Airlines (1) that are scheduled to be completed by the end of today.  With the 5 deliveries in December (thus far), Boeing has delivered 101 787s in 2014 and need 9 more to achieve their guidance of 110 deliveries.  They do have plenty of aircraft that appear to be ready to be handed over to customer as additional customer flights have taken place over the last few days.

the delayed deliveries of many of these aircraft have been attributable to different reasons including:

Delay seat deliveries from seat vendors (i.e. Zodiac) or delays in certifying the seats for installations Avianca, Etihad, American Air).  Bloomberg has an excellent article on the delays attributable to Zodiac

Financing issues (Azerbaijan Airlines).

Despite the trouble with deliveries, Boeing has still being going full tilt on production and my season adjusted calculations show that Boeing will start work on 8 787s in December while rolling out 9 from final assembly.

Lastly, the plane spotters in Abu Dhabi will get a special treat as Etihad's 1st 787-9 ZB077 (LN 229, A6-BLA) will fly to the country today, December 15th for a marketing trip.  It'll be there until the 18th and then fly back to Everett.  This aircraft still has not been delivered and has yet to take a customer flight though I don't know if the flight to Abu Dhabi wold count as a customer flight.  Boeing is still aiming to deliver this aircraft to Etihad on Dec. 31st.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing falls short on November 787 deliveries, off to a slow start in December

Last month Boeing delivered an anemic number of 787s despite the growing backlog of aircraft at both Everett and North Charleston.  By the end of November, Boeing had delivered 96 787s for 2014 and needs to deliver a further 14 aircraft by the end of December in order to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries for the year. The delays have pushed aircraft that were to be delivered in November to December yet almost 1/3 of the way through December Boeing has delivered only 1 787. 

According to the latest information (which changes more often than I can keep track), Boeing is looking to deliver 18 more 787s this month in addition to the 1 that has already been delivered to Air New Zealand.  I do believe that this number will eventually be trimmed down to 14 if not fewer.  Several aircraft have not had their B-1 flight as of yet despite having delivery dates later this month.  Several might also be pushed in January due to issues with customer supplied interiors and financing among other issues.  Other sources of delays maybe driven by weather conditions (B-1 flights have weather restrictions placed on them for safety sake) as well as the upcoming Holidays.  Boeing had delivered 15 787s in June of this year so it is entirely possible for them to crank out this number and I do think they can deliver 110 for the year but they do need to pick up the pace.  There are several 787s that were scheduled for delivery in December but those aircraft have already slipped into January, among them the first 787s for American Airlines and Scoot.

Among the candidates that expect deliveries this month are:

Aeromexico - 1

Air India - 1

ANA - 1

Avianca - 4 (787s that were delayed for yet unknown reasons but suspected to be interior furnishings)

Azerbaijan Airlines - 2 (rumored to have financing issues to complete the purchase, any one have any spare nickels and dimes to lend to them?)

Etihad - 1 (rumored to be delivered in January)

Japan Airlines - 2

Korean Air - 1 (terrible teen aircraft LN 11 for VIP transport but still needs to do a B-1)

Royal Air Maroc - 1 (still need to fly a B-1)

Thai - 1

TUI Travel (Arke) - 1

United Airlines - 1 (last 787-8 for UA)

Virgin Atlantic Airways - 1 (787-9, still needs to do a B-1)


A full year end review will be written up soon after the New Year followed by a 2015 Look Ahead.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing announces the start of final assembly of 1st Charleston built 787-9

First Charleston Built 787-9 for United Airlines.  Boeing Photo

Boeing announced the start of final assembly on the first 787-9 to be built at their North Charleston facility and which will ultimately be delivered to United Airlines in about 3 months time.  The aircraft, ZB170 (LN270, N35953) was loaded into position 1A on November 23rd according to my sources.

Boeing is aggressively expanding its footprint in the North Charleston area and plans to build all three version of the 787 at the plant.

Here is Boeing's press release on the start of final assembly of ZB170.

Boeing South Carolina Begins Final Assembly of its First 787-9 Dreamliner

North Charleston site joins Everett, Wash., team in building newest 787

NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C., Nov. 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) has started final assembly of the 787-9 Dreamliner at its South Carolina facility. The team began joining large fuselage sections of the newest 787 Nov. 22 on schedule, a proud milestone for the South Carolina team and another sign of stability for the program.  

The North Charleston, S.C., site joins Boeing's Everett, Wash., final assembly, which began 787-9 production in May 2013. United Airlines will take delivery of the first South Carolina-built 787-9. 

"Our team is well prepared and eager to assemble the 787-9 Dreamliner," said Jack Jones, vice president and general manager of Boeing South Carolina. "Achieving this significant milestone in our final assembly operations demonstrates that we're performing well here at Boeing South Carolina. We're looking forward to delivering our first South Carolina-built 787-9 to United Airlines, and delivering 787-9s as well as 787-8s to all our customers." 

The 787-9 complements and extends the 787 family, offering airlines the ability to grow routes opened with the 787-8. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters), the 787-9 can fly up to 40 more passengers an additional 450 nautical miles (830 kilometers) with the same exceptional environmental performance – 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than the airplanes it replaces. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering passenger-pleasing features such as large, dimmable windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

Charleston to start building 787-9

Since Boeing's 787 plant in North Charleston opened in 2011 it has exclusively built the 787-8.  This Sunday (Nov. 23rd) that will change when ZB170 (LN 269, N35953) is loaded into position 1A at the North Charleston plant to start the final assembly process.  The aircraft is destined for United Airlines and should be delivered sometime in March.

This is a huge milestone as the future of the 787 seems to be tied to the 787-9 and, to certain extent, the 787-10.  As the production rate increases in North Charleston there should be more 787-9s being built in North Charleston but for the first year or so most of the 787s that are built in Boeing North Charleston will be the 787-8.  In 2015 I expect the lion share of 787-9 that are delivered will be built in Everett.

Delta goes with Airbus for widebody order spurning Boeing

Leeham Co. analyst Scott Hamilton broke the news last night that Delta Airlines has decided to go with Airbus' offer of the A350-900 and A330-900 aircraft essentially rejecting Boeing's offer of the 787.  The rumor, right now, is that Airbus offered favorable delivery slots in 2017 while Boeing's delivery book for that year is completely sold out.


Interestingly Delta had inherited Northwest Airlines' 787 order when they merged in 2009.  At that point the Delta had the early delivery slots for the 787s yet over time they had elected to move those delivery slots further out to the right to around 2020 and beyond.  If they had kept those delivery slots for the 2017-2018 time frame, Delta could have had the 787-9 and at a very competitive price as well.  One has to question Delta's fleet management decisions in context of the Airbus order while still holding a 787 order with early delivery slots.


Now that they have gone with Airbus the 787 order is in limbo and, in my opinion, order that will never be delivered even though it will remain on the Boeing order book just like Virgin Atlantic's A380 order with Airbus.

Boeing looks to deliver fewer than 10 787s in November

With November more than half over Boeing has recorded only 1 delivery of a 787 this month but more troubling is the continuous shifting of the delivery schedule to the right setting up what may be a very un-happy holiday season for the Boeing workers who would have to put in overtime to get these aircraft completed, tested and delivered.

Boeing can deliver 8 more aircraft this month but one of them, a 787-9 for Air New Zealand, hasn't had its first flight yet and is tentatively scheduled to be delivered around Nov. 24th.  It appears that this aircraft may fall into the December delivery time frame thus I see Boeing only delivering only a total of 8 787s this month.

Notably there are 4 787s for Avianca all of who are ready for delivery or are close to being ready for delivery but these deliveries are now not scheduled to start until December due to some unspecified issue.  Rumor has it that the 1st class seats are not FAA certified though I doubt that as all the customer supplied options such as seats come from the Boeing catalog which are FAA certified.

Also many of the 787s have yet to take their first customer flights and that schedule is also slipping to the right.

This can leave a large number of 787s hanging around Everett (not so much Charleston due to the low production output) as the Holidays come up.  This can serve to continue to increase Boeing's deferred production costs well past the $25.2bn mark as Boeing will have to pay a tremendous amount of over time to catch up in December.  If Boeing only delivers 8 total 787s in November, their YTD total would be 98 and 12 short of their goal of 110.  It is certainly possible for them to deliver 12 787s in one month; they demonstrated they can deliver a significant number of 787s in 1 month but it will come at a cost.

Additionally, they have undertaken very few B-1 flights for aircraft that are due to be delivered in December and there a re still a number of 787s that are at the EMC or on the 40-51 ramp that are finishing up traveled work.

All the while production continues at the 10/month pace though with continued traveled work issues.  Thus far they've rolled out 4 787s with a 5th due to roll out on Sunday night and they've started final assembly on 5 other air frames.  Clearly the backlog in increasing so much that Boeing will be sending 787s to Charleston for final delivery as the ramp space at Everett is shrinking.

It is plainly obvious that Boeing production issues on the 787 are far from over and I do think the only way for them to be resolved is to through more resources and money now before the issues continue to snowball.

We'll see for December brings but right now I  think it's safe to say that Boeing 787 deliveries for this month will be terrible at best.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker