Boeing announces 787 production rate increases

In their 3rd quarter earnings announcement this morning, Boeing said they will increase the 787 production rate in 2016 from 10 to 12 aircraft per month eventually increasing to 14/month by the end of the decade.  Even though the fact that they are increasing the production rate comes as no surprise, the announcement coming this early was.  I was expecting an announcement of production increase next year.

Even though they haven't announced which site will benefit from the rate increase, I fully expect that Boeing South Carolina (Charleston) will see most if not all the increase in the rate of the 787.  This rate increase is being timed with the need to produce 787-10 aircraft in sufficient quantities by 2017 which is when Boeing expect to start testing the double stretch of the 787.  I can also see some interim production increases (to 11 in 2015 and to 13 in 2017-2018).

This announcement also will fuel the discussion as to where the 777X will be built.  With JALs announcement that they will buy the A350, there is increasing outlook that Boeing will build more of the new large jet outside of Japan (even if ANA orders it).  I believe that Boeing will build this airplane in Everett and assuming that the future 787 increases are built in Charleston, I can see a stronger case that the final assembly of the 777X will take place in Everett.

From Boeing's press release:

During the quarter, the 787-9 completed first flight. With the successful launch of the 787-10 and continued strong demand for the 787 family of airplanes, the company intends to increase the 787 production rate from 10 to 12 per month in 2016, with plans to increase to 14 per month before the end of the decade.

787 test aircraft possibly moving to change incorporation to prepare for delivery

ZA005, Boeing first 787 powered by GE's GEnx-1B engines looks to be done with its career as a Boeing test aircraft testing PIP for the these engines.  Matt Cawby tweeted yesterday these two tweets:

ZA5 N787FT just moved from the Everett flight line to the EMC pic.twitter.com/cC206BKMf7
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 17, 2013

@ureshs Looks like all the flight test equipment was removed while on the flight line
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) October 17, 2013

It appears that Boeing is preparing ZA005 for its second career with a paying customer, possibly a BBJ customer, by starting change incorporation at the EMC.  It will have to have the orange test flight wiring removed and be bought up to certification specs which may take as long as a year or more.  Its sister ship ZA006, also GE powered, has been in San Antonio, ostensibly going through change incorporation as well but has been there for well over a year.  This may indicate that Boeing doesn't have a customer for it as of now and are going slow on the change incorporation.

ZB002 still on the flightline, has open panels and doesn't have the aircraft registration applied to it.  This indicates that the aircraft is not yet ready to fly but I still anticipate that it will fly towards the end of next week.

Lastly, I'd like to leave you all with a the  profound thought of the day:

If spiders ever realize that people are terrified of them, We’re fucked.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) October 18, 2013

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Boeing equals 2012 787 delivery total.

Mid way through October Boeing has delivered 46 787s which is the same number that they delivered in all of 2012.  They've made great progress in bouncing back from the battery issues that grounded the world wide fleet and halted deliveries.  Through Oct. 6th, Boeing has delivered 95 787s and looks to deliver the 100th 787 later this month. Which one will get that honor is up in the air but it should still happen this month as there are several 787s that are in the middle or have completed their production testing.

Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month.  So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston.  Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:

ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines

* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown

While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC.  ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.

While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly.  Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.

Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan.  10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month.  This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston.  Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days.  Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th.  Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.

Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:

So... the good news is that you're getting the government back, and the bad news is that you're getting THAT government back.
— SarcasticRover (@SarcasticRover) October 16, 2013

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Boeing makes big push for 100 Dreamliner deliveries and a record number of 787 deliveries this month; 2nd 787-9 poised to join flight test effort

Boeing is conducting an aggressive effort to deliver a large number of 787s this month.  Even before mid month Boeing has delivered 5 787s many of these a spillover from September when they were expected to be delivered.  Through today, October 11th, 2013, Boeing has delivered 94 Dreamliners and will more than likely deliver it 100th 787 later this month.  Right now it's way to early to speculate to whom the 100 delivered 787 will go to as it depends on the progress of production flights.

Undeniably Boeing has been making a big push to deliver as many 787s as possible.  Today, alone there were 4 test flights including 2 B-1 flight.  A third was scheduled but didn't fly.  There are 3 Dreamliners that appear to be ready for delivery including the 6th for China Southern and the 2nd for Aeromexico.  One factor that can hinder deliveries, at least to US owners, is the continuing government shutdown.  While Boeing has the FAA inspectors back on the job at Charleston, the FAA still does not have its employees back in the office that process the aircraft registration and title transfers.  Boeing said that they can be mailed in but there still may be some delays due to the shutdown.  Deliveries to ILFC and United can be affected as well as to US based BBJ customers, for one of whom there is an aircraft about to start assembly.  Given the progression here's how I see the remainder of October shaking out in terms of 787 deliveries:

China Southern - 2 (1 each from Charleston and Everett)
Japan Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (from Charleston)
Qatar Airways - 1 (from Charleston)
ILFC/Aeromexico - 2 (from Everett, dependent on government shutdown)
Royal Brunei Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
United Airlines - 1 (from Charleston, dependent on government shutdown)

Other deliveries that may take place this month:
Air India (from Everett)
Japan Airlines (from Charleston)

Deliveries from Charleston have resumed after almost 3 months which is very good news.  Between September 30th and Oct. 9th, the Charleston facility delivered 4 787s and can deliver anywhere from 3 to 5 more this month which will help tremendously with the inventory there.  What will be interesting to see is whether Boeing can bring down the number of production test flights required for the Charleston built 787s.  The aircraft that were delivered recently needed many more flights than the ones built at Everett but this is probably attributable to Charleston still trying to ramp up the learning curve.  As time goes on the build quality should improve.  Everett wen through the same thing with some of the early delivered 787s.

Lastly the second 787-9 is getting close to making its first flight and joining its sister-ship at Boeing Field for test and certification activities.  ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was just moved from the fuel dock at Everett to a stall space on the flightline.  It should fly by Oct. 24th if it encounters no issues on pre-flight ground testing that should commence shortly.  To put the schedule in perspective.  It took ZB001 (LN 126, N787EX) 24 days from roll out to first flight.  ZB002 rolled out on September 30th and applying the same metric to this aircraft should give a first flight date of around Oct. 24th.  I do expect it to fly earlier than that as Boeing has improved knowledge from the ZB001's pre-flight.  Again this all assumes that ZB002 doesn't have any issues in the run up to first flight.  Another interesting stat is that ZB001 took 86 days in final assembly including painting and installation of test equipment.  ZA002 improved that number by 6 days to a total of 80 days in final assembly.  Boeing should be able to apply lessons learned from the first aircraft to get the 2nd aircraft up sooner.  We'll know by the 24th.

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Boeing delivers 5 787s in September, 787-9 finishes Initial Airworthiness Testing

There was high expectations that Boeing would have delivered quite a few 787s during September in an effort to improve quarterly results, however, Boeing managed only 5 deliveries during the past month.  On a bright note, it seems that there can be a good number of aircraft that should be delivered in early October as their delivery dates were pushed to the current month.  Boeing was very aggressive in production test flights in the effort to deliver many Dreamliners including the first aircraft to Jetstar (QANTAS) and Royal Brunei Airlines.   Additionally there were several 787s in Charleston that were expected to be delivered in September including aircraft for Air India, China Southern, Hainan, Qatar and LAN.  Hainan was delivered in September while China Southern was delivered on Oct. 1 and flew away on Oct. 2nd.  Boeing had to fly a lot of test flights on the 5 airplanes that they were trying to deliver from Charleston.  None of the aircraft for the above mentioned carriers flew fewer than 8 test flights with one 787 for LAN recording 13 flights. Two of these aircraft should deliver in early October with the Air India delivery on hold due to the usual financing issues with Air India.

Everett faired a little bit better but Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787s each to Jetstar and Royal Brunei.  These airplanes are still at Everett and I believe they should deliver in the early part of October as well.  All in all September was a very slow month for 787 deliveries and part of it may be due in part to customers being very picky during customer inspections (Qatar) as well as continued media reports about breakdown, cancellations and delays of the 787s in service with the customers.  Amongst the most vocal airlines regarding the teething issues are Norwegian, LOT Polish and Qatar.  However, it is a little disconcerting that aircraft built at Charleston had to fly more test flights (Boeing and customer) than those built at Everett though there were 787s that were assembled at Everett, especially the ones that were delivered in 2011 through mid 2012, that had to undertake numerous test flights.  Undoubtedly, as the Charleston team improves efficiency and their experience the number of test flights and squawks will trend downward.

So what should we expect for October?  This is difficult to say for several reasons: 1) Any issues at Charleston which currently has 8 787s waiting to be delivered and 9th that will be coming out soon. 2) Increase scrutiny by customers of their aircraft prior to deliveries which can lead to more customer flights 3) unpredictability of certain customers to take deliveries (Air India, China Southern, Hainan, and Qatar).  There is a fourth issue which may come up and that is the current government shutdown that can affect 787 production particularly with the 787-9 but also on changes with the 787-8.  Boeing has already spoken about this.  With the US Government shutdown there aren't any FAA inspectors to carry certification work and that could have a significant impact on deliveries.  I'll be watching this carefully.  I do think that we can see 9 to 10 787 deliveries mainly because of the spillover of missed September deliveries into October.

Lastly, Boeing announced that the 787-9 has completed Initial Airworthiness Testing which clears the way for Boeing 's engineers to fly aboard the aircraft in order to collect data.  Boeing has completed just under 50 hours of testing over the last two weeks.  The second test flight aircraft, ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was rolled out around Sept. 30th.  It spent 8- days in production vs. 86 for ZB001.  ZB001 flew 24 days after being rolled out.  If I apply the same metric to ZB002 then it should fly (barring any issues or unknown unknowns) by October 24th.  I believe it can fly by mid October.


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787-9 flight testing picks up as production 787 flight test tempo increases ahead of planned deliveries

Boeing Photo

Exactly 196 weeks or 3 years and 9 months after the first flight of ZA001 on December 15, 2009, Boeing successfully flew the next member of the 787 family, the 787-9.

Just a few days after the first 787-9 took to the air, the aircraft is packing on flight hours just a few days after taking its maiden flight.  Boeing is leveraging off the flight tests of ZB001's smaller sibling, the 787-8, to aggressively e 787-9's flight test envelope.  Because the aircraft is a  stretch of the 787-8 with the same wing and many of the same systems.  There are differences beyond the stretch of the airframe and these will be tested but given that Boeing has a ton of data already on the aircraft from the 787-8 testing they can pursue a higher flight rate.  It is still Boeing's plan to have a 6 month flight test/certification program.

There are still 2 more 787-9 in production.  The next one, ZB002, is almost complete.  ZB001 took 110 days from the start of final assembly on May 30 to first flight on September 17th.  If ZB002 takes the same amount of time (110 days) and using the July 12th date as the start of final assembly, this aircraft can possibly fly around October 30th.  However, I do expect that Boeing will apply lessons learned during the run up to ZB001's first flight to shorten that time.  It is entirely possible that ZB002 can fly around mid October.  Of course this is all dependent on finishing assembly activities and successful completion on ground testing.  ZB002 should roll out sometime in the first week of October if not earlier.

ZB021, the test aircraft that will be equipped with GE engines started final assembly on August 21st should roll out to the flightline around mid November and should fly by around early to mid December.

In the meantime Boeing is increasing the tempo of production flights has increased in the last few days as Boeing attempts to deliver around 10-12 787s this month.  So far 1 has been delivered.  We should see a good number of deliveries next week including 787s from the Charleston facility.

Lastly, I am attempting to document the 787-9 flight test program on a spreadsheet which is linked below.

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1st 787-9 flight scheduled for today, weather dependent

UPDATE: (11:02AM Local, 2:02PM ET): ZB001 in the air!

UPDATE: (11:00AM Local, 2:00PM ET): BOE001 Heavy Cleared for takeoff!!)

UPDATE: (10:54AM Local, 1:54PM ET): BOE540 (787-8) waiting to taking off

UPDATE: (10:52AM Local, 1:52PM ET): Chase Plane on its way to Everett from Boeing Field

UPDATE: (10:41AM Local, 1:41PM ET): Still holding short of Runway 34L

UPDATE: (10:36AM LOCAL, 1:36PM ET): Waiting for the Boeing chance aircraft coming up from Boeing Field.  The takeoff runway will then be decided.

UPDATE: (10:27AM Local, 1:27PM ET): BOE001 Heavy Cleared to taxi runway 16R.

UPDATE: (10:22AM Local, 1:22PM ET): Engine Start!

UPDATE: (10:07AM Local, 1:07PM ET): Takeoff now expected at 10:30AM Local.
UPDATE: (10:33AM Local, 1:33PM ET): Taxiing down 16R/34L.  Looks to takeoff on 34L.

UPDATE: (10:29AM Local, 1:29PM ET): Taxiing!

UPDATE: (9:45AM Local, 12:45PM ET): Runway inspections is on going.  This is to prevent from and potential FOD damage to the aircraft during takeoff.

UPDATE: (9:30AM Local, 12:30PM ET): Crowds are gathering and Paine Tower is communicating with the crew on ZB001.

UPDATE: (9:20AM Local, 12:20PM ET):

Crew of 2 on 787-9 N789EX doing a B1 preflight, the T-33 will be the chase plane today
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) September 17, 2013

UPDATE (9AM Local, 12 noon ET): Weather is looking good.  About 6 miles visibility and ceilings look fine.  About 1 hour until first flight.

Boeing's stretched 787-9 is on Flightaware for today's first flight:

787-9 First Flight

Boeing is planning a webcast of today's first flight which should leave at about 10AM local time and arrive at Boeig Field around 2:45PM local time.

787-9 First Flight Webcast

The flight will only take place if the weather cooperates.  Boeing needs a minimum ceiling of 1500'. 

If today's flight actually takes place it will come exactly 3 years and 9 months (or exactly 196 weeks) of  ZA001's first flight on December 15, 2009.  This was the first flight of the 787-8. 

I'll continue to update this blog entry especially with regards to the weather at Everett.

First 787-9 start taxi tests in preparation for 1st flight

Boeing Photo

Boeing conducted taxi tests with ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) in preparation for its first flight which is expected tomorrow.

The taxi test were carried out on very rainy conditions and weather will play a role in the decision to carry out the test tomorrow or not.  Taxi tests are the last set of tests prior tofirst flight of the aircraft.  It is expected that ZB001 will land at Boeing Field where Boeing Test Flight team is based.  The test and certifiation program is expected to last 6 to 9 months.

Currently the weather at Everett for tomorrow calls for a 20% chance of rain but low ceiling may postpone the test flight.  Boeing requires at least a 1500 foot ceiling for any first flight including B-1 flights of in production models.  I'll be keeping tabs on the first flight which I suspect will take place, weather permitting, at about 10AM PT (1PM ET).


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Boeing: First flight of 787-9 can come as early as Sept. 17th

Boeing just sent out a tweet saying that first flight can come as early as Sept. 17th.

787-9 first flight expected in coming days—as early as Tuesday 9/17. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) September 13, 2013

Schedule for 787-9 first flight is subject to change due to weather & other factors. #Boeing

— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) September 13, 2013

First flight of 1st 787-9 tentatively scheduled for Sept. 14th

Boeing Photo

Program sources have confirmed to me that Boeing has tentatively scheduled the first flight of ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) for September 14th.  This is all dependent on successful conclusion of ground testing activities including the gauntlet testing.

According to Guy Norris of Aviation Week, ZB001 is due to undergo gauntlet testing but shouldn't take as long as testing for ZA001, the first 787-8 before that aircraft's first flight in December 2009. It does appear that Boeing may have been waiting for certification of Trent 1000 package C engines which was just been given by EASA (no word yet on FAA certification).

787 firing updated

The 787 firing order was updated to reflect 787 production up to and including L/N 180.  The customers aren't all that surprising but it does include the first 787-9 for Air New Zealand (ZB003, L/N 169) as well as three more 787-8s for Ethiopian.  Ethiopian is leaving open the possibility of increasing their 787-8 fleet after the final 787s are delivered in 2014.

Here's a rundown of L/N 162 to L/N 180:

ANA - 1
Air Canada - 2
Air India - 1
Air New Zealand - 1
British Airways - 2
China Southern - 1
Ethiopian - 3
Hainan - 1
ILFC/Aeromexico - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
Jetstar (QANTAS) - 2
Norwegian - 1
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Brunei - 1

With Boeing planning to increasing the assembly at aircraft 158 (ZA244, L/N 159, VT-ANP) by the end of the year.  This firing order should show aircraft that start final assembly through the end of February, 2014.

Boeing continues to prepare ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) for first flight.  This should take place within the next 10 days.  The static pressure cone has been attached according to Matt Cawby.  Boeing has sent ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to get painted then will return to the assembly line where it will have more flight test equipment installed.  ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) is well into final assembly.  The first 2 aircraft will go to Air New Zealand after being refurbished though the final destination of the GE powered ZB021 is unknown.  It is rumored that the Mexican Air Force will get this aircraft to transport that country's leader and other government officials.

Lastly, Boeing still has to resume production flight testing though some flights have occurred for Charleston built 787s. Stay tuned for this month's flight tests to start within a day or two.

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Boeing rolls out 1st 787-9, deliveries increased last week.

Photo Courtesy of The Boeing Corporation

 

 

Boeing rolled out the first 787-9 to the flightline in preparation for first flight and the start flight and certification testing.  The program is expected to last approximately six months and would use three dedicated flight test aircraft: ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX), ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT), and ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) as well as one production standard aircraft that is not equipped with flight test gear: ZB197 (LN 146) which is earmarked for delivery to ANA.

Currently ZB001 is at the Everett fuel dock where it will undergo fueling tests and first start up of its APU.  Later it will move to the flightline for first engine start, gauntlet testing taxi tests and finally first flight.  I anticipate that ZB001 should be flying in about 2 - 3 weeks from now depending on how the other testing goes.  Here's the text of Boeing's press release:

Boeing Rolls Out First 787-9 Dreamliner

Second member of the super-efficient 787 family on track

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] has completed the first 787-9 Dreamliner. The second member of the super-efficient 787 family rolled out of the Everett, Wash., factory today to the flight line, where teams are preparing it to fly later this summer.

At 20 feet (6 m) longer than the 787-8, the 787-9 will extend the 787 family in both capacity and range, carrying 40 more passengers an additional 300 nautical miles (555 km). The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8 such as its exceptional environmental performance — 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes — and passenger-pleasing features.

With the second and third airplanes in final assembly, Boeing and the 787-9 are on track. First delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand is set for mid-2014.

In other production news, Boeing delivered 6 787s between Aug. 16th and Aug. 23rd.  Looking ahead o the last week of August they will certainly deliver at least 2 more (1 each to Japan Airlines and Hainan Airlines).  There is a possibility of delivering two more to Air India but these deliveries, which were expected to take place last week and were held up due to Air India's inability to find financing to complete the purchase, may be held even longer due to the aforementioned inability to secure bridge financing.  Boeing had hoped to deliver one more 787 to British Airways this month but due to technical issues which forced the cancellation of 2 attempts to carry out B-1 testing it is now doubtful that this aircraft can be delivered this month.  Boeing will, at the very least, finish up August with 9 deliveries possibly 11.

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Everett has a busy day with locally built 787s, Charleston silent

Today was a busy day for the 787s at Everett with a couple of deliveries and a few test flights that is setting up for more deliveries in the coming couple of weeks.

Boeing started out the day by delivering 2 787s, one to ILFC for Aeromexico (ZA561) and one to Thomson (ZA320)).  The 787 for Air India (ZA242) which I reported as delivered yesterday will actually be delivered on Monday August 19 and flown to India on August 20th.  To date Boeing has delivered (not counting the Air India jet) 76 with 3 coming this month so far. 

there were quite few test runs today with two aircraft performing both Boeing and customer test flights on the same day.  This indicates that Boeing is trying to fast track the aircraft for delivery later this month (perhaps next week).  ZA577 (for ILFC/Norwegian), ZA122 (ANA) and ZA383 (China Southern) all flew today with the later two doing customer flights.  ZA452 (British Airways) was to conduct a re-run of its aborted B-1 flight but the pilots apparently could not start one of the engines...not good.

ZA452 G-ZBJC flite delayed unable to start one engine
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) August 16, 2013

I guess they'll try again tomorrow. Boeing is aiming for a significant number of deliveries, it seems, from Everett. Here are the delivereis that I think will be made over the next 2 weeks:

Japan Airlines : ZA186
ANA: ZA121, ZA122
China Southern: ZA383
Air India: ZA242
British Airways: ZA452
Norwegian/ILFC: ZA577

It is possible, if Charleston is able to, to have a couple more deliveries:

Qatar Airways: ZA467
LAN: ZA539

Totally, Boeing has the ability to deliver 12 total this month but some of this depends on what shows up during the customer flights and if Charleston will able to start to deliver aircraft.  Through all the 787 activity of the past few weeks, very little has come out of Charleston.  Indeed, of the 9 787s that are complete (including one that is in Ft. Worth being painted) none of these airplanes have had a customer flight in preparation for delivery.  The silence from Charleston has been deafening but it may not be entirely there fault.  They are saddled with 6 787s that are to be delivered to three problem child airlines (Air India, China Southern and Hainan Airlines).  The coming week should reveal more in terms of activity at Charleston.

Lastly, I've updated the tables with the most current information that I have available including the load dates for ZA321 (September 3) and ZB021 (August 21).  Interestingly, Boeing is increasing he number of days between airframes in 40-26.  The time between loading ZA216 for Jetstar  and ZA650 is 12 days.  The number of days between ZA650 and ZA321 is 15 days (including one day for the US Labor Day holiday).  I suspect when Boeing get the inventory down at Everett and Charleston we should see a return to the days where Boeing was loading a 787 every 5.5 days at Everett.  Don't even ask me about Charleston.


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Boeing delivers 75th 787 to Air India

According to Matt Cawby, a local Everett photographer, ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) is at the Everett Delivery Center.  This indicates that this particular aircraft has been delivered by Boeing.  I expect that the aircraft will fly away to India later tonight or tomorrow.  Boeing has now delivered 75 787s since deliveries began almost 2 years ago. This delivery is Air India's 8th 787 and should allow them to start the planned Australia routes.

Air India 787 VT-ANN is at the Everett Delivery Center this afternoon
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) August 15, 2013

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Breaking: Boeing plans 7 to 10 787 rate break at aircraft number 158

As summer is pushing into fall, the pressure for Boeing to make good on their promise to produce the 787 at 10/month is growing.

It is being revealed, exclusively on this blog, that Boeing plans to break rate to 10/month starting with L/N 158 (ZA244, VT-ANP) a 787 for Air India that will be built in Charleston.  I expect this aircraft to be loaded sometime around November or December and should roll out around January with delivery around February or March (it's Air India after all).  Currently the production rate is less than 7/month and flightlines at both Everett and Charleston are crowded.  Until more deliveries are made, I don't see 787 production rates at Everett going above 5 to 6 per month.

In other news, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) and ZA445 (LN 128) switched positions with the later going to40-24 and the former in 40-26.  It seems that the installation of the flight test equipment on ZB001 is complete and it could be getting its tanks washed out.  This aircraft can be rolled to the flightline soon (only if a stall opens up).  ZA445 for Royal Brunei is probably having the last of its interiors fitted and should be rolled out within the next few days as there is a schedule line move in 40-26 on August 19th when ZA650 (LN 136, EI-LNC) for Norwegian is loaded to start final assembly.

Thus far through mid August Boeing has delivered only 1 787 to Qatar Airways.  There has been a number of customer flights on undelivered 787s at Everett but interestingly of the 7 Dreamliners at Charleston that have flown, none of the flights that have been undertaken are customers flights in preparation for delivery as of yet.  5 of the 7 are aircraft for Chinese and Indian carriers with another aircraft for China Southern still waiting to conduct its first flight.  Aeromexico should take delivery by tomorrow but timing of further deliveries is uncertain.

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787 musical chairs continues at Everett

As 787 flight testing continues to progress. Boeing is still producing 787s although it seems it is at a slower rate.  The load dates since June 26 bear this out but please note that this does not include the second 787-9.

L/N 127 - 6/26/13
L/N 128 - 7/2/13 (8 days)
L/N 130 - 7/16/13 (14 days)
L/N 131 - 7/26/13 (10 days)
L/N 134 - 8/7/13 (12 days)
L/N 136 - 8/19/13 (12 days)

Recent 787s have been loaded into the first assembly position in 40-26 at rate of 1 every 12 days. this is about half the rate that a 787 needs to be loaded in order to produce 5.5 airframes per month from Everett (not counting 787-9 test frame production).  The reason for the production slowdown is yet unknown but I do think that it is helping Boeing to manage the inventory build up at both Charleston as well as at Everett.

In other news, Boeing allocated L/N 22 (ZA803) to Transaero thus the 4 aircraft order for this carrier will be filled by 4 early build airframes 2 of which are currently under going change incorporation and will probably be delivered sometime in the 1st quarter of 2014.  Boeing has also moved the three airframes occupying Kilo South at Paine Airport to the runway 11-29 storage area and the tower ramp.  As Boeing continues to work through the early production frames that need change incorporation the number of early build 787s being stored around the airport will gradually shrink though at a slower rate as these air frames do require a lot of work and thus more time.  Boeing has also pulled another airframe that had undergone change incorporation onto the flightline.  This time is it is ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) and appears to be preparing for production testing.  This aircraft maybe delivered in September. Lastly, Boeing had one canceled 787 this year which was just posted.  The sole 787 cancelled was from Travel Service of the Czech Republic.  The opted to switch their order to 3 737 MX 8 instead.

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Uptick in 787 flight testing could led to higher August delivery count

In the past one week there has been an increase in 787 flight test activity mostly out of Everett but some activity out of Charleston as well.  In the period from July 31 to August 7 inclusive, Boeing has conducted the first flights of 7 production 787s (B-1 flights).  There were a number of follow on Boeing and customer flights on several other 787s including ferrying 787s to be painted in Ft. Worth.

Of interest, it appears that Boeing is preparing several airframes for delivery to Chinese and Indian carriers.  Of the 30 787s that is finished with assembly activities, 14 are for Air India, China Southern and Hainan.  It looks like Boeing can possibly deliver as many as three 787s each to Hainan and China Southern and at least 1 (probably 2) to Air India.  One aircraft for Air India, ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) has already flown at least 4 customer flights in addition to 5 Boeing test flights).

Boeing Charleston has been also very slow to deliver their 787s.  There are currently 7 airframes on the flightline there plus one more in Ft. Worth being painted but the last delivery from Charleston occurred over a month ago on July 4th.  It doesn't help that most of the 787s (6 out of 8) are waiting to be delivered to the aforementioned problem child airlines (China Southern, Hainan, and Air India).

Boeing does seem to be on track to deliver a significant number of 787s this month if they continue this pace and their customers are ready to accept them into their fleets.  The lack of any significant media attention over the past 1 to 2 weeks has probably calmed nerves and lessened anxiety amongst customers.  I'm still standing by my previous guidance of 1 to 13 this month but their is certainly a better probability now (compared to a week ago) that this number could be exceeded.  Boeing should undertake several more first flights in the days ahead (3 more) where these airplanes should be ready to deliver by the end of the month.  If I count in the Chinese carriers. the number could be as high as 17 to 19.


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Boeing delivers 7 Dreamliners in July

As July drew to a close Boeing was trying to get out the last few 787s into customer's hands as fast as it could.  Boeing delivered 7 787s in July and it narrowly missed delivering an 8th to Air India but was delayed when an electrical power panel had issues and needed to be replaced.

Still Boeing 787 deliveries was able to keep pace with production output during July since Boeing resumed production in Everett in late June after temporarily halting production to re-configure the final assembly floor in 40-26.

I am expecting a lager delivery number in August mainly due to a large number of 787s that are in both pre-flight as well as those that are undergoing production flight tests.  As of August 1, 2013 there are 29 787s (not including the lone 787-9) that are listed as in pre-flight, production testing, or ready of delivery. There are 16 aircraft in pre-flight, 11 that are undergoing production (flight tests) testing and 2 that are ready for delivery.  I do think that Boeing can see a significant delivery month with 787s being delivered as follows:

ANA : 2
TUI Travel : 1
Qatar Airways : 2
Aeromexico (ILFC) : 1
Norwegian (ILFC) : 1
LAN : 2
British Airways : 1
JAL : 1
Air India : 2

This is a total of 13.  If you noticed I did not include (again) any potential deliveries to the Chinese airlines as they have become notoriously unreliable, along with Air India, for not taking delivery of aircraft that are obviously ready.  China Southern Airlines along with Air India, and Hainan Airlines account for 14 of the 29 aircraft that have completed final assembly and are awaiting delivery.

However, there seems to be movement at Everett and Charleston that would indicate that the log jam of deliveries to India and China might be finally loosened.  Boeing has conducted several test flights of 787s destined for Air India and China Southern.  Boeing also has moved aircraft to the active flightline at Everett for Hainan and China Southern..  It seems that Boeing might be preparing to deliver some of these aircraft to China and India though I still am skeptical.  If there indeed a breakthrough then deliveries of 787s has the potential of going as high as 15 to 20. Boeing has been very aggressive with the production flight test program as of late and it is conceivable that August, usually a slow month of the year, can be a big delivery month for the 787.

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Boeing paints and rolls out 1st 787-9

Images courtesy of the Boeing Company

 

Boeing released a statement and photo of the 1st 787-9 after completing the painting of the aircraft.  Boeing said that it had rolled the aircraft out of the paint hangar so all you plane spotters please get to Everett for more photos.  Hopefully it wasn't rolled back into one of the assembly hangars. 

 

This plane is complete in the time frame I had predicted a couple of months ago (roll out in late July) and I still expect that first flight should occur (barring any unknown unknowns) by late August to early September to kick off the 6 month flight test/certification program.  Boeing will be giving a briefing on the 787-9 flight test and certification program but they will be using 3 instrumented aircraft (ZB001, ZB002, ZB021) and a 4th production standard aircraft (ZB197) which will not be instrumented.

 

Here's Boeing's Press Release: 

 

First Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Features New Boeing Livery

EVERETT, Wash., July 27, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] continues to make progress on the first 787-9 Dreamliner, which also has become the first 787 to don the new Boeing Commercial Airplanes livery. The airplane has just rolled out of the paint hangar.

This refreshed look for the Boeing family began with the 747-8 and evolved with the 737 MAX. The new livery retains many of the features of the original 787-8 livery, adding a prominent number on the tail to help distinguish among models within the same product family.

The 787-9 will complement and extend the 787 family, offering airlines the ability to grow routes opened with the 787-8. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters), the 787-9 will carry 40 more passengers an additional 300 nautical miles (555 kilometers), with 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering the features passengers prefer such as large, dimmable windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

Boeing is on track to roll out and fly the 787-9, currently in final production, in late summer. First delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand is set for mid-2014.

FAA issues AD for 787 ELTs plus 787 deliveries for July

Today the FAA is ordering carriers to either inspect or remove the ELTs on their 787 aircraft.  This is coming on news that AAIB investigators are narrowing the fire in the ELT to improper installation of the ELT and the associated lithium-manganese batteries which allowed the wires in the ELT to be pinched thus leading to a possible arcing event and igniting the fire.  Essentially, the 787 and its electrical system has been exonerated in this event and the issue maybe that of workmanship instead of design.

In related news,, Jim McNearny, speaking on the 2nd Quarter earning call said that Boeing is in discussions with Ethiopian on plans to repair the 787.  There was some question as to whether the aircraft would be repairable or would have to be written off.  This is the first indication that I know of that Boeing believes the damage to ZA261 is repairable.  Hopefully within a couple of weeks will know what Boeing's repair approach will be and how they will ensure that the repairs won't compromise the structural integrity of the aircraft.

As the July is coming to an end Boeing is making a push to deliver several 787s.  Thus far they have delivered 4 in July and should be able to deliver 4 more:

Ethiopian - 1
LOT - 1
Qatar -1
United Airlines - 1

For August, Boeing should be able to deliver at least 11 though I'm not including any deliveries to Air India, Hainan Airlines or China Southern.  Between these three airlines, there are 14 787s that are essentially ready to be delivered.  Assuming Boeing delivers 4 more 787s by the end of July, they will have 28 aircraft that are in pre-flight or in production test flights (excluding the 787-9 that is in the paint hangar). This means that Boeing can possibly deliver 14 787s from this current batch (not including the aforementioned carriers) however, some of these are scheduled for a September delivery.  I do think Boeing will be able to deliver 11 787s (barring any unknown issues):

ANA - 3
British Airways - 1
JAL -1
ILFC/Aeromexico - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
LAN - 2
Qatar -1
TUI - 1

Again I'm not counting any deliveries from Air India, China Southern or Hainan as these carriers have been notoriously unreliable when it comes time for them to pick up their aircraft especially after they raised hell for the delays.

If, by some miracle, these airlines are able to take delivery, then we can see much higher total deliveries of around 15 to 16 for August.


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AAIB confirms fire on Ethiopian 787. Fire looks to originate from ELT

The AAIB is recommending inerting (turning off) the lithium-manganese powered ELTs and is recommending a safety review of the batteries that power the ELT. The AAIB says that the aircraft was plugged into external power but the aircraft itself was not powered up. 

This means that the Honeywell supplied ELT was the source of the fire which affected the composite structure and interior insulation as well as blackened and peeling the paint externally. There was damage to the composite structure. The firefighters tried using handheld halon extinguishers which were not effective then resorted to water hoses which put out the fire. The ELT was effectively destroyed and the AAIB also said that there we no other aircraft systems in the vicinity of the ELT "which, with the aircraft unpowered, contain stored energy capable of initiating a fire in the area of the heat damage." The AAIB is not certain if the combustion was initiated by a release of energy within the batteries or an external source such as an electrical short.

There are two recommendations:

1) The FAA orders the inerting of the Honeywell ELT until it can be fixed.

2) The FAA initiates a safety review of the lithium powered ELT in other aircraft types and mandate appropriate fixes.

Essentially this clears Boeing and the electrical architecture but it would be paramount to understanding the source of the combustion.  The Honeywell ELT is used in other aircraft types and have been certified for use in commercial aircraft since 2005. 

The AAIB also said that there typically isn't any fire detection or suppression equipment in the space where the fire took place and if it had occurred during flight could have posed a "significant safety concern and raise challenges for the cabin crew in tackling the resulting fire."  The firefighters had to rip down the ceiling panels and overhead luggage bins to access the area of the fire.

With inerting the ELTs, the risk of a fire is taken away. Boeing will still have to determine if they can economically repair ZA261 and return it to safe and normal service. This will be a major challenge for Boeing's engineers. You can read the full AAIB interim report:

http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources.cfm?file=/S5-2013%20ET-AOP.pdf

First 787-9 rolls out

The Seattle PI got some great pictures of the first 787-9 rolling out of 40-24 and going to the paint hangar 45-03. I suspect it'll be in there not only to get a coat of paint but to have its fuel tanks washed out. ZA215 (LN 123, VH-VKA) was rolled out of the same paint hangar, still unpainted, and is parked in front of the Everett Delivery Center thus making room for ZB001. I expect that ZB001 should be inside for at least a week and a half and should be out on the flightline by then end of the month. Meanwhile enjoy the pictures by the Seattle PI by clicking on the link below:

http://www.seattlepi.com/business/boeing/boeing-photos/slideshow/Boeing-787-9-roll-out-66549.php

AAIB to put out interim report on Ethiopian 787 incident within days; 787 production slowed in Everett

UPDATE: Jon Ostrower is reporting that the 1st 787-9 (ZB001, LN 126, N789EX) should be rolling out of 40-24 and into the paint hangar at around 11PM PT. Final assembly of this test flight aircraft took 48 days.

The UK's AAIB is expected to put out an interim report on the fire/heat event on board the Ethiopian 787 which occurred on July 12th.  Thus far investigator are looking at the aircraft's lithium-manganese powered emergency locator transmitter (ELT).  This piece of equipment is made by Honeywell and is considered an off the shelf item meaning that it was not designed exclusively for the787 but is probably used on other commercial aircraft models.  It is far from certain if the ELT is the cause or help feed the fire but investigators did find this piece of equipment virtually destroyed and the damaged to the carbon composite structure of the aircraft is in the area where the ELT is located.

In the meantime none of the airlines nor Boeing have stopped 787 operations and the carriers continue to fly their full schedule.

Boeing continues 787 production with the 2nd 787-9, ZB002 (LN133, N789FT) entering final assembly on July 12th in 40-24.  However an analysis of the 787-8s that have started final assembly reveal that the production rate has slowed at Everett. I'm not sure if it was due to the prolong grounding during the winter-early spring, the re-configuration of the main final assembly hall in 40-26 or a combination of both.  Looking at the production table, Boeing loaded ZA563 (LN 127) on June 26th after the reconfiguration and construction in 40-26 but the next two 787-8 that entered into final assembly was LN 128 (6 days later on July 2), LN 130 (14 days later after LN 128) and LN 131 is due to enter assembly 10 days later after LN 130.  To keep up the 5/month rate in Everett Boeing has to be loading one 787 into position 1 every 6 days.  It may be that they are re-ramping up to that rate after the construction but we would have to see.

The situation in Charleston may be similar.  The Post and Courier revealed that the Charleston line is producing at 1.5/month and will not get to 3/month until sometime in the 1st quarter of 2014 but that Boeing still plans to have 787 production at 10/month by the end of this year.

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AAIB: Batteries did not cause Ethiopian 787 Event

The UK's Air Accident Investigation Branch sent out a press release essentially exonerating the 787 lithium ion batteries in the smoke/heat/fire incident at Heathrow yesterday.  The aircraft was pulled into a remote hangar where investigators will try and understand what happened and why.

Thus far there has been a lot of speculation but we do know that there was smoke throughout the cabin and heat damage in the rear crown area.  The Ethiopian Dreamliner was not equipped with a crew rest area nor where there air conditioning pack in the area of the fire.  There has been speculation that this fire may have been intentionally set and even though the chances are highly remote it has not been discounted.

I do think that the AAIB along with the NTSB and FAA should be able to get to the how and why within a few weeks.  In  the meantime, 787 customers including Ethiopian continue to operate the 787 and Boeing continues production and flight testing.

Here is the text of the AAIB's July 13th press release:

Date: 13 July 2013

Serious Incident to Boeing 787-8, ET-AOP,

at London Heathrow Airport on 12 July 2013

 

 Date & Time: 12 July 2013 at approx 1550 hrs UTC

Location: London Heathrow Airport
Aircraft Type: Boeing 787-8
Operator: Ethiopian Airlines

At approximately 1550 hrs UTC on 12 July 2013 a Boeing 787-8 of Ethiopian Airlines, registration ET-AOP, suffered an event at London Heathrow whilst the aircraft was parked on stand, with no persons on board. The initial witness and physical evidence shows that this event resulted in smoke throughout the fuselage and extensive heat damage in the upper portion of the rear fuselage.

In exercise of his powers the Chief Inspector of the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has ordered that an investigation into this serious incident be carried out, in accordance with the Civil Aviation (Investigation of Air Accidents and Incidents) Regulations 1996 and the Standards and Recommended Practices of Annex 13 of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The sole objective of the investigation is to determine the causal and contributory factors of this serious incident, with the intention of preventing a recurrence. It is not the purpose to apportion blame or liability.

In accordance with these international standards and recommended practices, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), USA, representing the State of Design and Manufacture, and the Civil Aviation Authority of Ethiopia, representing the State of Registry and Operator, have been invited to appoint Accredited Representatives to participate in the investigation, along with advisors from the Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Ethiopian Airlines. The AAIB has also invited the participation of the EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) and the UK CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) as advisors to the investigation.

This team, under the direction of the AAIB, has initiated the technical investigation into the event. The aircraft is currently located in a hangar at London Heathrow. There has been extensive heat damage in the upper portion of the rear fuselage, a complex part of the aircraft, and the initial investigation is likely to take several days. However, it is clear that this heat damage is remote from the area in which the aircraft main and APU (Auxiliary Power Unit) batteries are located, and, at this stage, there is no evidence of a direct causal relationship.

Ethiopian 787 fire update

UPDATE: saw this on avherald.com if true then Boeing may have caught a break:

The aircraft fire is unrelated to the batteries. This will be confirmed tomorrow in a boeing press conference. Fire is strongly believed to be as a result of galley overheat - failure of coffee heater trip switch which was left on.Burnt out much of the galley and area above causing deep damage to aft bh and rudder/elevator system. Aircraft sadly a write off - unless pride of hull loss/p.r dictates repair even if economically un-viable."

Thus far there is still no word on what may have sparked the fire on ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) but investigators from the UK's AAIB (Air Accident Investigation Branch) with NTSB and FAA personnel to support (along with Boeing) are enroute to London to begin the formal investigation into the fire.

The events in London, this afternoon, has not had an effect of 787 operations around the world.  Indeed, airlines continue to operate the aircraft in revenue service but are keeping a close eye on event at Heathrow.

Boeing continue production testing of the 787s at Everett with two flights today: ZA468 (LN 116, A7-BCG) and ZA186 (LN 105, JA832J).  I'll update the blog as more information becomes available.


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