Air India 787s on the move, Qatar 787 readied for Farnborough

Over the weekend Matt Cawby spotted the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery sporting temporary US registration numbers on their fuselages.  This lead to speculation that the aircraft are to be flown out of Everett for possible storage, maybe in the desert.  Well the speculation was mostly correct.  The two 787s, ZA233 (LN 29,VT-AND) and ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) will be flown to Charleston to join sistership ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) on Monday, July 2nd.  Now the reason why it is being flown to Charleston isn't officially disclosed but the obvious reason could be for a triple delivery to AIr India and that still could happen but sources have told me that delivery to Air India is still listed as "TBD".   It is conceivable that these three airframes for Air India will be delivered from Charleston but another reason is that if Boeing is able to turn the keys over to the carrier between July 4th and July 8th, they will be unable to fly away during those dates as the runway at Everett will be closed.  This way Boeing leaves open the delivery and fly away during those dates by transferring these airplanes to Charelston.  The most likely reason is to free up space in Everett for other aircraft that are ready to be delivered.  Already ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) is already out of paint and need to prepare for pre-flight. ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is currently sitting in the fuel dock sans its rudder (don't know why) this aircraft is projected to be delivered at the end of July but it still needs to have its rudder reattached and go through pre-flight.  The pace of aircraft reaching the flightline ready for pre-flight is quickening and Boeing needs the space.  Given the uncertainty of the Air India deliveries this is a good move to keep the pace at Everett moving.  ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways is already at Boeing Field to prepare to fly to Farnborough later this week this airplane is still projected to deliver later this month.  Another flightline stall should open up tomorrow as ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) will deliver today, as far as I know, and should fly away tomorrow July 2.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) should deliver around July 11th with fly away on July 12th.

On Tuesday another line move should occur which will push out ZA119 (LN 69) for ANA and will mark the start of final assembly for ZA537 (LN 74) for LAN.

787 Flying During Farnborough

This morning Boeing announed that the ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways will be flying demonstration flight from July 9 to July 11th during the Farnborough Airshow.  This is the first time Boeing will be flying acommercial demonstration at an air show in over 25 years. Rumor has it that Boeing is doing this at the behest of Qatar Airways chairman Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) but that is not confirmed.  According to Randy's Blog, ZA461 should arrive at Farnborough on Thursday July 5th.  It will fly a validation flight the next day and fly demonstration flights on 4pm each day from July 9th to July 11th.  The demo flight is 7 minutes long and will be flown by Boeing pilots.

The aircraft will have to leave from Boeing Field, according to Matt Cawby, the runway at Everett will be closed from July 4th to July 8th re-opening on July 9th.  This also means no B-1 787 flights or delivery fly aways during this period.  If there are to be any B-1 flights prior to the runway shut down, it would most likely be ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) as this one seems closest to conducting any B-1 flights.  It is also possible that the two Air India 787s at Everett can be delivered before the runway closure but again this is all dependent on the Indian Government approving the deal between Air India and Boeing.  I have no word on when this may happen.

In the meantime, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) was supposed to have been delivered yesterday but appeared to have been taken on another test flight yesterday evening and is know expected to be delivered on July 1st and expected fly away on July 2nd.

787 Half Time Report

So now that we're coming to half way through the year I thought to do a brief review and then look forward to the second half of the 787 ball game.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th.  When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.

As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink. 

So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August.  This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.

Can Boeing deliver 10 next month?  It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line.  Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests.  They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line,  currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3.  Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.

Looking forward.

The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October.  Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern.  I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year.  That is 32 airplanes.  Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36.  There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery.  Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year.  This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month.  The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in.  Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.

More 787s coming out the door - June 22, 2012

Boeing is really on a roll in terms of getting 787s outthe door and prepared for delivery.  Tonight ZA536 (LN 68) will pushed out the door and parked on the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before moving on to the paint hangar and then on to pre-flight.  This airplane will be the first one for LAN.   I'm not sure if the other airframes on the apron will be moved to make room for the third airplane.  Additionally, ZA262 (LN 49) for Ethiopian was moved from the Everett Modification Center to the Fuel Dock.  I suspect it will go through paint and fueling tests before moving out to flightline for pre-flight in the next couple of weeks.  Word is that we should see the first flight of Qatar's first 787, ZA461 (LN 59, A7-BCB) this Sunday but that is the rumor for now and nothing concrete as of yet.  Lastly, United Airlines confirmed that it will be receiving its first 787 in September.  More than likely this will be ZA288 (LN 53, N27904).  This aircraft is still in the EMC being prepared for delivery but recently had its GEnx engines attached.

June 20, 2012 - Busy day for 787 program

There was a lot going on today with the 787 program.  First, Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) made an appearance on the flightline fully painted.  Matt Cawby got a very nice picture of it. This aircraft was parked in stall 107 which had been occupied by ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) for Air India.  This air frame was moved to the Fuel Dock until spot opens up when one of the ANA 787s fly away in the next two days.  Speaking of ANA 787s, they're been newsworthy.  First it was revealed to Reuters that the dimmable windows are not dark enough.  Why they're raising this question now instead of when PPG was developing them for the 787 is not known.  Apparently the shades are letting in enough light so that the customers can't sleep.  I don't know if there is a remedy to ANA's concerns but the aircraft nonetheless is performing extremely well in passenger service.  Japan Airlines has not complained about the windows and they're flying the aircraft on several long haul routes. However the issue will not slow down deliveries of the aircraft to ANA.  Today ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) took its B-1 flight in preparation to being delivered. I expect that this airplane should deliver next month.  Finally it is still expected that ANA will take delivery of ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) today though I am awaiting confirmation of this.

Two ANA 787s to deliver later this week

I just got word that ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow to ANA with fly away on the 21st (Thursday).  ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A) will deliver on the 21st and fly away on the 22nd (Friday).

787 Deliveries to take place soon

According to a post on a forum on Airliners.net, ANA should be taking delivery of 2 787s. ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow June 18 and ZA507 (LN48, JA810A) will deliver on June 19.  Additionally ZA509 (LN56, JA812A) will deliver on June 28th according to the post.  In terms of the Air India deliveries, that is still to be determined.  It seems that the GoI has not given the go ahead as of yet on the deal between Air India and Boeing.  If approval comes this week then I can see deliveries starting very soon thereafter.

July deliveries

The post also said that ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) and ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) will be delivered around July 31 and July 11 respectively and it may be possible for ZA135 (LN 66, JA813A) to be delivered during this month as well, this aircraft is still undergoing final assembly tasks on the apron.  Qatar Airways, it seems may not take delivery this month but that Boeing will conduct its first flight and then send it to Farnborough under Boeing control and ownership after which Boeing will complete all necessary pre-delivery operations prior to handing the aircraft over to Qatar Airways.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see further handover of aircraft to JAL and Air India in July.

Finally, I expect a line move late this week, around Friday the 22nd which should push out the first 787 for LAN, this is ZA536 (LN 68).

Three paint hangars, three 787s

I got some more information last night and while I added it to my previous post I've also decided to start a new post as I see this as significant.  Everett has three paint hangars and by tonight those three paint hangars will be filled with 787s that will be delivered by the end of July.  They are:
45-01 - ZA118 (LN 67) this will be in there tonight
45-03 - ZA100 (LN 7) first 787 to enter production
45-04 - ZA461 (LN 58) first 787 for Qatar Airways

In my mind ZA100 is a milestone.  This 787 entered final assembly about 3 years ago but has mostly sat in storage after being rolled out in the fall of 2009 waiting for change incorporation after flight testing was completed.  Because it was the first to enter assembly it had the most work that needed to be done though most of the last three years it was sitting in storage.

There is a line move tonight with ZA118 leaving position 4 in 40-26 and going straight to the paint hangar.  Over the next week we should see these three 787s emerging from the paint hangar and go directly to the flightline for preflight testing and work.  With the exception of ZA461, these plans should deliver in July.

June 12, 2012 787 delivery watch and other 787 news

UPDATE (6/12/12, 8:45 PM):  There will be a line move tomorrow but on top of that there was some movement of several Qatar Airways 787s.

ZA118 (LN 67) will go straight from 40-26 to the paint hangar 45-01.  Sounds like there aren't very many jobs to do on this one and can go to preflight. 
ZA461 (LN 58) has gone from Stall 106 to the paint hangar 45-04 sounds like we'll finally see a 787 in Qatar Airways color scheme.
ZA460 (LN 57) went to EMC position Z
ZA511 (LN 63) went to EMC position 3
ZA463 (LN 64) went to EMC position E replacing ZA100 (LN 7)
ZA100 (LN 7) went to paint hangar 45-03 for painting seems this one is done

Lots of news out today.

ZA509 flies

ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) flew for the first time this afternoon. This is the first 787 to conduct a a B-1 flight in over three weeks.  Boeing had filed numerous flight plans over the past few days but it finally took off this afternoon. If there aren't too many issues then it should deliver by the end of this month.  it is still unknown why it has taken so long between B-1 flights for the787 and why ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) and ZA509 (LN 48, JA810A) have not been delivered to ANA.  ZA506 did have an experimental sticker and an N registration on it but those have since been removed.  I can speculate that this airplane conducted some certification activities, possibly connected to software upgrades, and Boeing is waiting on final FAA approval before signing the airplanes over to ANA.  The fact that ZA509 finally took flight might be an encouraging sign that is approval is close or already in hand.

United to take 787 delivery in September

Jeff Smisek, the CEO of United said today at a shareholder meeting that the airline will take delivery of the first Dreamliner in September and will have 5 to 6 787s by the end of the year.  Currently there are 5 787s that are assembled and two of the five that are currently undergoing change incorporation.  ZA290 (LN 77) will be assembled in Everett and I expect that this airplane will enter final assembly sometime around early September.  Boeing can certainly deliver all these 787s to UAL by the end of the year as they probably don't have much change incorporation to be done.

Air India

The word is the the GoI will take up the compensation agreement between Air India and Boeing this week and that first delivery should take place next week.  Though this is India and they do love their little drama so I'm not going to believe it until all three 787s, ZA 233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) and ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI), are all on Indian soil.

Qatar Airways

Of all the 787 that would make a lot of noise I was expecting Qatar Airways, not Air India but some how Air India was able to supplant Akbar Al-Baker as the most annoying (and most dislike) customer in the airline industry.  I know I'm comparing an individual with a company but you get the idea.  Anyway we've heard not a peep from one of the most vocal airlines in the world.  I did get word that delivery of Qatar's first 787 should take place by the end of the month.  Further I got confirmation of the following piece of information that was in a Qatar Airways press release:
The Doha-based airline is preparing to take delivery of five 787s during 2012, with the first set to arrive in Qatar this summer.

The carrier will initially operate the aircraft on intra-Gulf routes to provide flight crew with training hours before Qatar Airways’ 787 is scheduled to appear on static display at the Farnborough Air Show in July and then enter its first long-haul commercial service on the Doha – London Heathrow route.

If so then Boeing will need to deliver Qatar's first 787 by the end of this month if it is to conduct inter-Gulf flights for a week and then go to Farnborough for the air show which starts July 9th.  It is entirely possible that the airline can take delivery by the end of the first week of July and then fly it to Farnborough for the show.  I say this because as of today the plane is still in a flightline stall and there is still work being done on the aircraft and has yet to run its engines for the first time let alone make a B-1 flight.  If ZA461 (LN 58) isn't on the ramp at Farnborough a 777-300ER would be in its place) then you can expect U-Turn Al to be back to his normally bombastic self thus regaining his title over Air India.

Production

I expect there to be another line move if not today then by Thursday at the latest.  LN 67 should be pushed out and should be in a similar condition as LN 66.  This airplane is also for ANA and should most certainly deliver next month.  Related to production, Flightglobal writer Steven Trimble came out with an article saying that Boeing is pushing the activation of the surge line to the end of September, ostensibly the start of the 4th quarter.  The reason being is that Boeing wants to use the line for chane incorporation for the 39 787s that are out on the Everett ramp.  According to Trimble the line is completely ready to support production of the 787s but Boeing wants to use it for change incorporation during the summer.  This may make sense as it have two positive effects...1) it allows Boeing to work through the 39 planes that are still need to be finished that more faster thus reducing inventory on the balance sheet and boking revenues on the income statement and 2) it allows Boeing to refine and double check it plans for the surge line and for the rate increase to 5/month that will come this fall.  Boeing and its supplies cannot fail on this rate increase and must make sure that it occurs seamlessly across the supply chain.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of the 787s that are currently in final assembly are moved to the surge line to finish off some of the minor assembly tasks.

787-9/787-10

Jim Albaugh speaking yesterday said that the 787-10 would be launched before a 777X as it is the derivative that is the most further along.  According to Scott Hamilton who cites a Bernstein Research note, the 787-10 launch is almost a certainty.  The 787-9 development is proceeding well and will go into production on the surge line next year. 

The same Bernstein Research note also raised Boeing outlook based on improvement in the 787 program and in particular the production.  It cites supplier performance as a huge factor in the improved production outlook.  See the Reuters article that talks about the Bernstein note here.

Performance of ANA 787s

Word is coming out that the performance of ANA 787s on long haul flights is 21% better compared to the 767-300ER that they're replacing.  This is compared to the 20% that Boeing was aiming for when they started marketing the 787 to the airlines. These are the overweight aircraft that are equipped with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines that have SFC bought to within 1% of Rolls Royce's performance guarantees.  One can only imagine what the performance will be like on the later 787s which are delivered at the promise weight (Boeing is getting there) along with the improved engines coming out from both GE (PIP2) and Rolls Royce (package "C").

Boeing's 787 inventory plan

Boeing has about $24bn in 787 inventory sitting around Paine Field in Everett waiting to be delivered.  They have 9 planes in preflight 5 for ANA , 3 for AIr India and 1 for Qatar Airways. After that they have 39 more that have to go through change incorporation. Looking at what has been delivered, what is going to be delivered and the air frames that are undergoing change incorporation, one thing stands out clearly:  Boeing will prepare and deliver the later built air frames (airplanes 31 to 65) as they require significantly less rework compared to airplanes 4 to 30.  Boeing will continue to focus on getting airplanes 31 to 65 out the door with change incorporation along side the airplanes that don't need to go through the costly change incorporation.  Many of these late planes don't need much re-work at all thus allowing Boeing to get them to customers faster and book the revenues sooner.

The numbers tell the story. 

Of the 11 airplanes that have been delivered 4 are LN 30 and below (36% of the deliveries so far). 

Of the airplanes that are currently ready to be delivered (the 9 in preflight) there is one that is coming from the batch of LN 30 and below (11% of the 9 airplanes that I categorize as preflight). 

Of the airplanes that are currently in the change incorporation process (in building 40-24, EMC or other buildings for re-work purposes) there are 5 out of 11 airplanes which I categorized as actively going through change incorporation (as opposed to storage/change incorporation Dreamliners which are mainly being stored).  That is about 45% of the 11 airplanes being worked on.

Of the 28 airplanes that I count as being stored (not actively being worked on), 16 are from LN 4 to LN 30 or about 57%.  I expect that by the end of this year most of the airplanes from LN 31 to LN 65 will be in customer hands. 

As Boeing works through the late builds they'll start to switch to re-working the early build 787s and prepare them for delivery but in doing so, these airplanes will spend more time in the EMC thus slowing down deliveries from the change incorporation batch of 787 in 2013-2014.  I think it is reasonable to assume that Boeing cost for these airplanes are going to shoot through the roof owing to the amount of work that has to be done on these airplanes.
In other news, Boeing is finally getting some of the preflight 787s back into the air.  ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A) should be flying today as will ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) which will be making its first flight.  It does seem that deliveries are getting close but I have yet to get any information about this.
Boeing is now trying to finalize an order for 5 787s with Batik Air (owned by Lion Air).  No word on when this will be finalized or which version of the 787 they're buying.

The mystery of 787 number 66 part deux

Well there seems to be a little bit more clarity on ZA135 (LN 66) and whether this airplane is in for storage or if it is being prepared for delivery.  Yesterday the a picture by Moonm showed ZA135 (LN 66) with engines hanging but with all the windows and doors sealed.  There was considerable debate what this meant and if it was a sign that this airplane still had to go through change incorporation.  Today local Everett photographer Matt Cawby flew around Paine Field and some of his photos showed ZA135 being worked on outside building 40-51.  Of particular interest is that this airplane now has some of the window and door seals removed.  The window masking is still on (presumably in preparation for painting).  This is a good sign that Boeing intends to move this airplane into the standard pre-delivery work and test flights.  Another less obvious sign is that Boeing moved one 787 from one flightline stall to another. ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern went from stall 102 to stall 201.  Stalls 101 to 109 have been used by Boeing to prepare 787s for delivery. It's conceivable that stall 102 is where ZA135 will be parked as it is prepared for delivery.  Lastly, Matt's photos shows the wheels of the airplane uncovered as opposed to those that are being stored around Paine Field.  This indicates that Boeing will be moving the airplane from its current spot soon.  Where to is another question. The next movement of this airplane will give a more clear indication of the future of this airplane and whether Boeing has indeed turned the corner in 787 production.  It is very, very close.

Air India and Boeing come to an agreement

Media outlets in of India are reporting that Air India and Boeing have come to an agreement over the 787 delays.  Those reports did not specify the form of compensation though it may involve Air India paying less for each 787 as they are delivered.  The agreement has to be approved by the Government of India so that is a reason to be cautious of this agreement.  It was the Government of India that insisted on more compensation than had been previously agreed with Boeing.

If approval is given, Air India will take delivery of three 787s: ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH), ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) all in June.  ZA233 is already to go now and I suspect that ZA236 is not that far behind.  ZA237 is being painted and has still go through a few more Boeing test flights as well customer tests before it is delivered by the end of this month.

If the approval is given, Boeing can potentially deliver 8 787s this month.  4 787s to ANA that are on the flightline right now: ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A).  Additionally Boeing can deliver ZA461 (LN 58) to Qatar Airways this month.  This would make 8 airplanes including the three for Air India.  ZA135 (LN 66) is an unknown but should be ready for delivery if not by the end of June then certainly in early to mid July.

The mystery of 787 number 66

Well a partial mystery.  In an earlier post, I revealed that ZA135 (LN 66) was pulled out of the final assembly line in building 40-26  and out onto the apron in front of Boeing's final assembly hall.  At the time I wasn't sure if it had engines attached or if the airplane was buttoned up.  Thanks to a spotter in the Everett area the airplane is buttoned up (windows and doors are covered up and sealed). However it does have the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 hanging from the wings. Boeing has not equipped 787s with engines until they are ready to be delivered.  However, the airplanes are sealed if they are going to spend time in storage until it has to go through change incorporation.  It seems that there is a mixed message with this airplane.  Perhaps it is ready to go straight to the flightline for the standard pre-delivery work including painting but Boeing needs to deliver the other 787s that are on the verge of delivery.  There are 4 787s that are being readied for delivery to ANA along with one for Qatar and two for Air India.  Perhaps there is a small amount of work that needs to be done on this airplane and then it can go straight into pre-delivery?  I suspect the answer is something in between.  Where this airplane goes will be the next clue as to the state of the 787 program.  If there is still work to be done and it has an extended stay on the Boeing tarmac, that is not good at least in the short term and the expectation that Boeing has turned the corner on the program would be severely damaged.  If however the plane is able to take flight before the end of the month then it's not an issue and Boeing would have truly turned a corner.

Another 787 pushed out, airplane 66 out the door

Boeing has pushed out ZA135 (LN 66) from build 40-26.  This is supposed to be the first airplane that goes from assembly line to flightline.  Currently it is parked on the 40-51 (building) apron west.  I don't know if it has its engines attached or not but hopefully a spotter would be able to get photos of it to determine if it engineless and buttoned up like other 787s that have to go through the change incorporation process or if the windows and doors are uncovered and the airplane has its engines hanging off the wings.  If, as expected, this airplane has its engines then it should be ready to go to paint/aqueous wash followed by ground and flight testing prior to delivery to ANA.
We have to wait and see but this information is current as of today. 

Additionally there are 3 787s in 40-24 undergoing change incorporation.  These airplanes are ZA175 (LN 20) for JAL, ZA261 (LN 44) for Ethiopian and ZA287 (LN 52) for United.

No word on upcoming deliveries in June as of yet.

Boeing asked to pay for Air India's mistakes and ineptitude

How much does Air India want Boeing to pay for AI's mismanagement and incompetence...$1,000,000,000.00.  That amount is equal to over $37mm per 787.  Now Boeing does owe Air India compensation for the delays but certainly $37mm is waaaay over the top.  What Air India wants Boeing to do is pay for years of bureaucratic mistakes and idiocy at the air line.  They couldn't even effectively merge Air India and Indian Airlines and the result is a huge strike that is financially hurting the airline.  Now Air India want Boeing to pay for the financial costs of the strike.

Air India, of course, has no where to go and at the end they will have to blink.  Boeing can easily deliver these airplanes to another customer though Boeing would have to hold on the the 787s while the BFE (buyer furnished equipment) is delivered to them for installation.  Air India would be without the fuel efficient aircraft it so desperately needs to remain competitive with Emirates, Qatar Airways and other international carriers and it will further hurt their bottom line.  I certainly hope that Boeing doesn't blink.  They shouldn't be held hostage due to Air India's extremely poor decision making.  Here's an Op-Ed from the New York Times regarding the Air India situation:

NYT:  Air India’s Boeing Showdown Could Be a Mistake

In other news, I got wind of the 787s that are in the EMC at Everett.  They are:

Bay C, ZA262, LN49, Ethiopian
Bay B, ZA382, LN43  China Southern
Bay A, ZA380, LN34, China Southern
Bay D, ZA287, LN52, United
Bay AW, ZA178, LN27, JAL

Quite interesting that ZA100, LN 7 is not there anymore.  I don't know where it is hiding but it was at EMC for a good long while.  I have to wonder if it's close to being delivered? Well we all know that there weren't any 787 deliveries in May but it could be setting up for a big June for the 787 program.  There should be 4 787s for ANA and 1 for Qatar that would be delivered this month.  If Boeing and Air India come to an agreement then that is another 3.  I also expect that the first 787 to go from assembly line to flightline would be pulled out in a couple weeks.  ZA135 (LN66) could sneak in under the wire to be delivered to ANA in June though the chances are remote but it would certainly be delivered by end of July.

Boeing readies more ANA 787s but AI planes are in limbo

Where to begin as there's a lot of new stuff.

First let's take a look at the positives.  Boeing has 4 787s being readied at Everett for ANA.  These are ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), and ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A).  ZA 508 is currently in the paint hangar but this plane had spent some time at EMC so I do believe that it is getting its aqueous wash and paint job done before being pulled to the fuel dock for fueling tests then to the flightline for mini gauntlet, engine start and first flight.  Thus Boeing will have 4 787s ready for ANA in June maybe more.  There has been a line move and currently the 4 787s that are inside 40-26 are ZA135 (LN 66, position 4), ZA118 (LN 67, position 3), ZA536 (LN 68, position 2) and ZA119 (LN 69, position 1).  All but ZA536 are for ANA with ZA536 going to LAN.  It is conceivable but not certain that ZA135 can go straight to paint and flightline with its engines and start preparation for delivery in about 2 weeks and can possibly be delivered at the end of June.  This will be a major milestone for Boeing when it happens. Also ZA461 (LN 58) has made an appearance at the Everett Fuel Dock and I believe that this airplane is being prepared for delivery.  I expect it will go into the paint hangar shortly before re-emerging for pre-delivery tests and final delivery to Qatar Airways in June and on display at Farnborough in July. Lastly, ZA237 (LN 46) has filed a flight plan fro Charleston to Fort Worth so this airplane can be painted for Air India.  It is currently still in Charleston delayed by weather in the Dallas area.  This last point is a nice lead into....

The Negatives

Only one (HUGE) negative which Air India. and here I just don't know where to start my rant.  I (and probably 99.9% of of the world) thought that the issue of compensation to Air India for the delays was settled.  According to the Govt. of India it is not and thus Boeing may have a dozen 787s for Air India sitting on the ramps at Everett and Charleston waiting to be delivered.  The Air India debacle is a case study on how not to run an airline particularly when you are government owned and you have bureaucrats who know nothing of the airline industry making key decisions.  ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) is all ready to be delivered and I suspect so is ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH).  How long it will take to complete the negotiations on compensation is anyone's guess but this is Air India attempting to have Boeing pay for the decisions made by the carrier mistakes once again.  The pilots strike over who flies the Dreamliner is also bleeding the carrier so they need money and they're going to Boeing for that money. This saga won't end until Boeing has delivered the 27th and final 787 to Air India and washes their hands of them.

Boeing flies first SC built 787 and Air India will take delivery this month

Boeing has successfully flown the first North Charleston built 787 today (LN 46) for Air India.  The B1 flight flight lasted about 5 hours as it flew off the South Carolina coast.  The plane will later fly to Texas where it will be painted and then return to Charleston for further test flights and delivery to Air India at the end of June.

Here's Boeing's press release:

Boeing Conducts Inaugural Flight of First 787 Built in South Carolina

Dreamliner on track for mid-year delivery to Air India 

NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C., May 23, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today marked another 787 milestone as the first Dreamliner built in South Carolina completed its first flight. Piloted by Tim Berg and Randy Neville, the airplane successfully conducted a five-hour test flight. More than 5,000 Boeing South Carolina employees watched a live broadcast of the airplane as it took off from Charleston International Airport. 

"This is a proud moment for our Boeing South Carolina team and for Boeing," said Jack Jones, vice president/general manager, Boeing South Carolina. "In April, we gathered on the flightline to watch this airplane roll out of final assembly. Today, we watched as this airplane successfully completed its first production flight - one step closer to delivering our first South Carolina-built 787 Dreamliner to our customer." 

Today's production flight test profile tested the airplane's controls and systems in a series of scenarios designed to verify the airplane operates as designed. The tests occurred in all stages of flight beginning prior to taxi, through final landing and taxi. 

During the flight, the crew checked the functionality of onboard systems at high and medium altitudes. They also checked backup and critical safety elements including cabin pressurization, avionics, and navigation and communications systems. In addition, they shut down and re-started each engine during flight. 

"First flight of this South Carolina-built airplane is a significant achievement and our teammates did a great job working together to make this happen," said Berg. "The airplane performed exactly as we expected." 

The airplane will be flown to Ft. Worth, Texas to be painted with Air India's livery before returning to Boeing South Carolina for a mid-2012 delivery.

Speaking of Air India, 787 and delivery...this soap opera couldn't get any weirder.  It was reported (in the Indian press and picked up by the local US press) that the Aviation Minister, Ajit Singh, was not going to travel to the US for the delivery because it was being pushed back two weeks.  Now today Air India says they will take delivery of the first 787 at the end of May and that Singh's cancellation was due to the on going Air India-pilots saga.

Meanwhile as Air India tries to sort out its mess here's a couple of articles of interest:

Inside Boeing’s 787 Factory

Air India to get its first Boeing 787 Dreamliner by May-end  

While we're waiting for more 787 deliveries, here's some more pictures of the Blue Angels here at Long Island:

Blue Angels at Republic Airport

May 21, 2012 Update - The Blues are in town

Boeing teased many people when a flightaware alert went out announcing the first flight or the 1st Charleston produced 787.  ZA237 (LN46) for Air India was supposed to fly at 3pm EST but the flight never went off.  This is possibly due to weather conditions in the area as tropical depression Alberto (first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season) was still lingering off the Georgia coast but was expected to drift to the northeast during the week.

Nonetheless, this indicates that Boeing is ready to proceed with first flight unless there is maintenance issue.

While we're waiting you can enjoy some photos of the Blue Angels that I took on Monday afternoon as they were arriving at Republic Airport in Farmingdale.

Blue Angels Arrival at Republic Airport

First SC built 787 scheduled to fly this Friday

It's looking like Boeing is setting to fly the first Charleston built 787 this Friday. Randy Neville, a Boeing 787 test pilot fresh from the 787 World Tour flew ZA003 from St. Louis today then left for Charleston in order to take ZA237 (LN46) on its first flight scheduled for May 18th.  Randy was on ZA001 when it went up on its first flight on Dec. 15, 2009.  Now he's tasked with taking this very special 787 into the South Carolina skies.  This airplane should deliver in mid to late June.

Currently Boeing is conducting tests on ZA506 (LN47) which is destined for ANA.  However current information is that this airplane and ZA507 (LN48) will not deliver this month and is more likely to deliver in June.  This means that only ZA233 (LN29, VT-AND) will deliver this month to Air India.

Meanwhile Boeing had its Investors Day conference today.  There was no new information out of today's conference though it seems that Boeing is now studying a 787 production rate greater than 10.  They're still planning for a rate increase this fall to 5/month.

Where is Boeing's 787 inventory - May 14, 2012

I just got updated information on the location of Boeing's 787 inventory that is stored or in re-work around Everett.  The information is quie interesting as it shows that Boeing is focused on getting the late build 787s through change incorporation and out to the flightline.  Many of the 787s that are in the EMC are airplanes 49 to 58 including ones for Qatar Airways, JAL, ANA, and Ethiopian.  This shows that Boeig is focused on getting the late builds out the door first and then going back to fix the early builds which will take more time.

Meanwhile Boeing is flying ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) in preparation for delivery to Air India by the end of this month.  ZA237 (LN46) already has had its first engine run and Boeing is saying that its first flight should come within "days" though I expect it to be some time late this week to middle of next week.  This plane will deliver to Air India by the end oof June if not sooner though with Air India things could change given the turmoil within that airline.

May 2012 787 Deliveries

I just got information from a source that Boeing MAY only deliver just 1 787 which will be ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) for Air India.  Given that the other two 787s (ZA506, LN 47, JA809A and ZA507, LN48, JA810A) that are on the flight line have not even flown there may be a lot of truth to this though they can still be delivered if Boeing conducts company and customer test flight over the next 3 weeks.  I am not sure for the delay but it does appear that Boeing may be setting for quite a few deliveries in June.  There has been speculation of which 787s that are in Boeing's EMC.  I've gotten some of that information and it does appear that the following ANA 787s are inside the EMC: ZA100 (LN7), ZA508 (LN 51), and ZA509 (LN 56).  Additionally there is a JAL 787 most likely ZA178 (LN 27).  There is another 787 which may be for either United or Qatar.

Another reason why Boeing will deliver 50 787s this year

Ok so I'm in the midst of having an email conversation with Saj Ahmad over at Strategic Aero about 787 deliveries when I realize (the light bulb does go off sometimes) that there is another rational for believing that Boeing can reach 50 787 deliveries this year.  It all has to do with what we know about deliveries in January 2013.

We do know that Thomson Airways is to get its first 787 ZA317 (LN92) in January 2013. We can assume that Boeing will deliver airplanes 66 to let say 90 by December 2012 (I'm assuming 2013 deliveries will start with LN 91).  That is 25 airframes right there that will go from assembly line to flight line, that is 25 787s that will not have to spend time in change incorporation.  Boeing has already delivered 8 787s this year.  So we are already at 33 787s for 2012 and we have not even touched the undelivered 787s that are sitting around Paine Field trying to finish change incorporation.

So we do know that of those 48 remaining 787s that have yet to finish assembly and change incorporation are airplanes for Air India, Qatar Airways, LAN, ANA, JAL, LOT, China Southern, Royal Air Maroc, Ethiopian Airlines and United.  These airplanes will receive at least one if not more of the 787s this year that will be undergoing change incorporation.  That is at least 10 787 deliveries from the 787 inventory at Paine.  We do know that Air India, Qatar, ANA and United will receive more than 1 but we can also add JAL and China Southern to that list (all these come from the LN 7 to LN 65 lot of 787s).  That's 6 more 787s for total of 16 coming from 787 WIP.  We also know that Air India is to receive  4 787s this year from the Charleston plant so we should add three more to the total and that gets you 19 787 deliveries from the pre-LN 66 lot of airplanes.  Thus the math is as follows:

  8 - 787 delivered so far
25 - delivery of LN 66 to LN 90 to be made in 2012
19 - delivery of 787 WIP (defined as LN 7 to LN 65 that have not yet been delivered, this is currently a total of 48 airframes).

8+25+19 = 52.

Simple, isn't it? Now we can probably added a few more for carriers like RAM, LAN, Air India, China Southern, United, Ethiopian and ANA for this year but I am unsure about how far they have to go for change incorporation.  The upshot is that Boeing is very conservative with their 787 delivery numbers for 2012.

787 production update - May 3, 2012

787 production is starting to get interesting as there will be another line move tonight at Everett.  Boeing will push out ZA462 (LN62 for Qatar Airways) allowing the four positions to be occupied by airplanes 63, 64, 66 and 67.  The later two are planes that should not have to go through any change incorporation and will go direct from the assembly line to the flight line at Everett.  The main fuselage for airplane 67 should have been delivered last Friday night after Boeing had pushed out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  That 787, ZA237 (LN46) is on its way to finishing the 96 assembly tasks that are left before entering gauntlet testing and first flight which is projected to take place between May 18 and May 5th.  Delivery to Air India should take place by June 30th.  Also I got confirmation that ZA239 (LN 60) and ZA240 (LN65) are both for Air India and both are being assembled at Boeing Charleston.

In other production news, I got wind of Thomson Airways deliveries of their first 3 787s.  The first airplane for Thomson will be ZA317 (LN92) which should start assembly late this year for delivery in January 2013.  This will be followed by ZA318 in February 2013 and ZA319 in March 2013.  The first and third airplanes will be based in Manchester while the second airplane will be based out of Gatwick all to support training and EIS of the company's 787.  These airplanes will carry 291 passengers of which 47 will be premium seating in 38 inch pitch seating while there will be 244 in economy in 36 and 33 inch pitch seats.

As far as deliveries this month, I fully expect 1-2 787 for ANA and 2  airplanes for Air India.

LAstly, I came across some interesting analysis with regards to deliveries of the 747-8 and 787s this year.  It is estimated that Boeing will have built, through the end of this year about 50 747-8 airplanes (F and I).  Of those 50, 9 were delivered last year leaving 41 potentially to be delivered this year.  Of those 41, 3 were for Atlas Air Cargo which they have stated that they will not take...that brings the number of deliverable aircraft to 38 for 2012.  However this number includes test airplanes that have yet to under go refurbishment including 2 for Cathay Pacific Airways and the second 747-8F built which is for NCA.  That brings the number down to 35 747-8 aircraft.  If Boeing is projecting between 70 to 85 747s and 787s to be delivered by the end of this year that means that Boeing can be in a position to deliver between 35 and 50 787s.  This is entirely possible as is starting to produce 787s that will go straight from the production line to the flight line and into testing.

2 more JAL 787s to deliver tomorrow

Boeing is set for another 787 double delivery to customer Japan Airlines.  This time two more late built 787s will be delivered on April 25th.  Fly away to Japan is expected around the 26th or 27th, in time for JAL to start 787 service to Moscow and Delhi in May.  Japan Airlines is expecting to have 10 787s in its fleet by March 31, 2013.  There are still 3 more JAL 787s at Everett that have yet to finish change incorporation.  The two 787s that will be delivered are ZA180 (LN 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (LN38, JA827J).

Boeing is preparing ZA506 (LN47, JA809A) for delivery to ANA.  This is probably not going to happen until May with it's first flight sometime in the first two weeks of May.  This will be ANA's 8th 787. Again Boeing is still clearing out the late and very late built aircraft but clearing out the first 23 787s built has been very slow (LN7 - LN29)

Additionally, it's expected that Boeing will finally deliver Air India's first Dreamliner though the first one ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) is still in San Antonio.  It's sister, ZA233 (LN29, VT-AND) has been flying around San Antonio and may be flying to Paine Field right now.  This airplane will still need to have its interior installed when it gets back to Everett so it won't be ready for delivery until late May at the earliest.

Finally on Friday Boeing will roll out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  This airplane, ZA237 (LN46) is destined for Air India and should be delivered around June.  Given that this is the first 787 to be built at Charleston, Boeing will probably take its time doing the needed gauntlet testing before conducting its first flight.  Boeing will then send the plane to Amarillo, Texas where Leading Edge Aviation Services is contracted to paint the Charleston built Dreamliners.  Boeing Charleston doesn't have a paint hangar unlike Everett but I can see that changing with Boeing's acquisition of more land near the plant.  The airplanes will then be flown back to Charleston where the interiors will be fitted and further Boeing and customer test flights will be completed.

Tornadoes hit Boeing Defense plant and Spirit's plants in Wichita, production of 787 and 737 uncertain

Boeing was dealt a body blow on Saturday when tornadoes ripped through Wichita and severely damaged Boeing's BDS plants as well as the plants for Spirit AeroSystems 737 and 787 operations.

Thankfully there weren't any injuries or fatalities but production of 737 and the forward fuselage of the 787 may be severely impacted due to the power outage and damage caused by the storm.

Right now Spirit is telling employees not to report for work through Tuesday as they are still conducting damage assessments. Spirit is just one of a handful of Boeing 787 suppliers that have had very little issues with producing their work share of the 787. This could set Boeing back though if it does and by how much is still uncertain though Spirit is saying most of their capabilities are still intact. I don't know what they mean by capabilities.

From the photos that Spirit had posted on Flickr, the damage at least externally, looks to be pretty severe. I will try to follow this and report what impact, if any, these tornadoes have on 787 production.

First SC built 787 to roll out at end of April, 787 production update

Boeing announced that the first 787 built in North Charleston will roll out of final assembly on April 27th. This aircraft, ZA237 (L/N46), is destined for Air India and should be delivered this summer. Even though it is rolling out it will probably go through a more extensive battery of ground and gauntlet testing as this is the first 787 built outside of Everett where most of the assembly technicians are new to building this aircraft. After gauntlet testing Boeing will conduct a B-1 test flight and then fly the aircraft to Texas where it will be painted. It will return to North Charleston to finish pre-delivery Boeing and customer test flights. I don't know if it already has the customer interior installed but that could happen just before painting but after flying the initial test flight. In case the test flight has uncovered any issues that need to be corrected, Boeing techs will probably want unrestricted access to any areas. Interior fittings like seats, galleys, and restrooms can get in the way.

Lastly, I updated the 787 production firing order with LN71-LN75. One slight change is that LN 63 which was going to be for Hainan Airlines is now going to ANA with Hainan now getting LN 73. I was able to get some information on where these particular airplanes will be built as well. These 5 frames are, for now, scheduled to go to Ethiopian (2 frames), Air India, Hainan, and LAN. Interesting no new first delivery frames in this lot.

Boeing delivers 3 787s in March, three more on tap for April

Boeing was able to deliver three 787s to customers in March, 2 to Japan Airlines and 1 to ANA. It's looking like Boeing will be able to deliver 3 more in April. Again two to JAL and one more to ANA. In fact ZA105 (L/N 42, JA808A) is schedule to make its first flight today (April 1)...hopefully it's not an April Fool's joke by Boeing. Both ZA180 (L/N 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (L/N 38, JA827J) had their first engine runs though JAL's CEO was a little vague at the delivery ceremony for its first two 787s if the airline will take delivery in April. I still have no further information on their delivery timelines or for other 787s deliveries beyond ZA105.

Who's next?

So who else will be receiving 787s this year? Well in addition to ANA and JAL the known customers who have given updated delivery guidance will include:

Air India (May)
Qatar Airways (June just before Farnborough)
United (Fall, 2012)
LAN (Fall, 2012)
Polish LOT (Late 2012)

Other first deliveries may/should include Ethiopian and China Southern both airlines should receive them around late summer to fall though there hasn't bee any updated delivery guidance given by those two carriers. The first 787 for Hainan Airlines is supposed to start final assembly within the next couple of weeks though again there is no guidance on when this airplane will be delivered so it might be early next year as resources are used to get the earlier airplanes ready for delivery. Royal Air Maroc has two 787s out on the flightline though I am not sure when those are to be delivered and there has been no recent delivery guidance given by the airline. RAM was expected to take their first 787 in late 2011 but that is most assuredly pushed to late this year at the earliest if not sometime in early 2013.

Production

On the production line airplanes 58, 59, 61 and 62 are in positions 4 though 1 respectively in building 40-26. Airplane 60 will be built on the North Charleston line though I don't have a final assembly start date yet. This is an airplane for Qatar Airways. Boeing is closing on the start of assembly for airplane 66 which will be the first airplane that will go straight from the assembly line to flight testing and will have no need for change incorporation or any other work. This airplane is destined for ANA when it is complete. I can see this airplane being delivered around June of this year.

Boeing has delivered 5 787s so far this year and are expecting to deliver anwhere from 30 to 37 more 787s this year. That means they need to deliver more than 3 airplanes perr month for teh rest of this year if they are to attain that goal. If they deliver only 3 787s in April then they would have to deliver almost 4 airplanes a month for the remainder of the year to attain their goal.