Yesterday I reported that several 787s needed to ave their thrust reversers changed out as there is an issue with several of them. Today another source told me that there aren't any issues with the thrust reversers but there are one off issues with the GE engines and that the engines on a JAL 787-9 airframe are being changed out which necessitated the removal of the thrust reversers for the change out.
Just this evening another source said that ZB376 (LN 481, G-ZBKO) for British Airways is being rolled out tonight sans its Rolls Royce Trent-1000 motors.
There clearly seems to be some sort of issue but the information I have says that there isn't any systemic issue with the 787 thrust reversers. It does appear that test flights, for the most part, are on hold for the time being. What is still unknown is the nature of these issues and the affect on the test flight and delivery schedule.
Lastly in news unrelated to the engine issue; Boeing South Carolina will shut down for about 11 days (between August 22 and September 2nd) so that suppliers can retool for the 787-10 production that will start later this year. It will also give Boeing to catch up on late work and allow some workers to take vacation. I'm not sure if the same is happening in Everett.
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
787 program takes another financial hit as program deliveries continue to meet expectations, near term deliveries in question due to thrust reverser issue.
| Number | |
| Testing Complete | 3 |
| To be assembled in Everett | 172 |
| To be assembled in Charleston | 121 |
| Parts Arriving | 6 |
| Undergoing final assembly | 10 |
| Storage | 0 |
| Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work | 0 |
| Change Incorporation and Re-Work | 5 |
| Pre-Flight Prep | 12 |
| Production Testing | 8 |
| Non Customer Flight Tests | 1 |
| Ready for Delivery | 0 |
| Donation | 3 |
| Delivered | 446 |
| TOTAL | 787 |
Near term deliveries of the 787 look to slow down due to
unspecified issues with the thrust reversers affecting both GE and Rolls Royce
powered aircraft. A source has indicated that this is not a fleet wide
problem but concerns a batch of thrust reversers that are installed on current
787s that are on the flightline or that are currently being assembled.
New thrust reversers without the issue have been manufactured and are
being installed on several aircraft on the flightline including ones for Hainan,
JAL and Scoot as those aircraft have their engines removed. I do expect
that these aircraft should deliver before the end of the year and that this
issue should not affect final delivery numbers though it could push deliveries
to the fourth quarter.
Just when followers of the 787 program
thought that the program was just starting to emerge from the financial black
hole that was created, it was sucked right back in with Boeing's announcement
of an incredibly high charge of $847 mm against 2Q16 earnings. The charge
is due to inability by Boeing to sell the last two original 787-8 flight test
aircraft, namely LN 004 (ZA004, N7874) and LN 005 (ZA005, N787FT). The
cost of refurbishing them to certification standards is too high compared to
where they can sell them. This charge was in addition to the charges that
Boeing has taken on the 747-8 program ($814 mm) and the KC-46A program ($393
mm). Boeing will be reclassifying the unit costs associated for these two
airplanes from inventory to R&D expense
So what is to become of the two flight
test airplanes? Well ZA004 is currently performing certification testing
for the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 TEN. Once that is complete I expect that
this airplane will be donated to a museum. ZA005 flew back to Everett in 2013
and appeared to have some re-work and change incorporation performed on it.
Many of the movable flight surfaces were taken off as were the engines.
However, the aircraft has remained in that stripped down state for the more
than 2 years. Now that Boeing is taking this charge I expect that the
aircraft will be further stripped for usable spare parts that will probably
have to refurbished. The airframe will probably be destroyed, perhaps
Boeing use this airframe as a demonstration on how to dispose of a carbon
composite fuselage in a way that is environmentally friendly as recycling CRFP
aircraft parts on a large scale has never been done. This could give
Boeing an opportunity to develop proper disposal techniques.
Getting back to the 787 production story, Boeing delivered 14 787s (3 787-8 and 11 787-9) in July including one early build 787-8 (ZD006, LN 14, ET-ATK) for Ethiopian Airlines. Boeing has been making very good progress in getting these airplanes ready for delivery though it's taken the better part of 5 to 6 years for each. Boeing is slated to deliver 3 more early build 787s (one each in August, September and November) this year with one already in paint and a second one being prepped for its first flight. Other notable deliveries include the first 2 787-9s that were directly purchased by Hainan (still listed as unidentified on Boeing's order and delivery website) and Qatar's 30th and final 787-8 that they have on order. I'm still waiting for them to exercise their options. Any day now U-Turn Al.
With the 14 deliveries in July, Boeing has delivered 82 787s this
year through the end of July and 445 since program deliveries began.
There are 309 787-8s in operation and 136 787-9s flying. With one
additional delivery made this month, Boeing is 54 deliveries away from
achieving 500 customer deliveries. This is something they can achieve by
the middle to end of December as long as there aren't any delays in current
delivery schedule. This equates to roughly 11 deliveries per month for
the next 5 months. Boeing has been doing well on that account for the
past 3 months.
In terms of production, the two production
facilities are still turning out the aircraft as the planned rate of 12 per
month. The efficiency ratio last month was at 0.79 which was driven
mainly by higher deliveries from Everett which had a pretty good efficiency
ratio of 0.67. Charleston had a respectable ratio of 1.0. It should
be noted that the one early build 787-8 is included in the calculation of
Everett's efficiency ratio.
Looking forward, Boeing was planning for
only 9 787 deliveries in August but with the thrust reverser issue it will
probably be lower, around 5-6. One of those deliveries with, ZA155
(LN4457, CN-RGT) for Royal Air Maroc, has already been made. ZB368 (LN
396, G-ZBKG) a 787-9 for British Airways is finally set to be delivered at the
end of this month after being grounded due to issues with Zodiac in delivering
the interiors to Everett for installation. Another early build 787-8,
ZD005, (LN 13, ET-ATJ) should also be delivered by the end of this month.
I can only attribute the lower delivery number to the typical August slow
down for the summer as well as the aforementioned issue with the thrust
reversers. I do see the delivery rate picking back up in September to
catch up to the needed 11/month delivery rate that Boeing needs to make for the
remainder of the year.
I'll be following this post with another
one reviewing Boeing's comments on the 787 during the 2nd quarter as well as
prospects for a rate increase by the end of this decade.
787 Full Production Table
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