All things 787

Friday, June 20, 2014

Revised June Delivery Estimate For 787

In my previous post, I estimated that Boeing could deliver about 14 787s in June. New information now leads me to revise that estimate upwards to as many as 16 though it is quite possible that some of these deliveries can spill over into July for delivery. They have already delivered 8 thus far in June.

Obviously with the quarter end coming up, Boeing wants to book as many deliveries and income as possible, thus this is the rationale for the push to deliver as many as possible.

Given the new information here is a list of aircraft that I believe can be delivered in the next 10 days:

ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV)
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) - this plane should deliver at the end of the month but expect it to stay in Everett until July 10th for crew training.
ZA219 (LN 175, VK-VKF) - this plane also should deliver at the end of the month but the delivery may spill over to July.
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) - should deliver around 6/24.
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) - should also deliver around 6/24.
ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG) - this aircraft still needs to conduct its first flight but is tentatively scheduled to be delivered at the end of this month.
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA) - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.
ZA321 (LN 191, G-TUIE) - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.

If Boeing can deliver all 8 then they would have achieved 50 787 deliveries in the first 6 months of 2014 and will have put themselves in a good position to deliver 60 to 70 more in the second half of the year.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Boeing increases 787 production flight testing

Over the past few weeks, Boeing has been aggressively flying production 787s on Boeing and customer flight tests. In June, Boeing has conducted seven B-1 flights on the production 787s and I do think that they can fly at least 4 more before the end of the month. This should include one aircraft for British Airways, ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG), a BBJ for the Saudi Ministry of Finance, ZA779 (LN 193, HZ-MF8), one for United Airlines, ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) which will be used for 787-9/GEnX F&R/ETOPs testing and one for Qatar Airways, ZA474 (LN 188, A7-BCO). ZA456 did file a flight plan on June 17th but the aircraft did not fly).

There was a large up tick in flight activity during the last week or so which leads me to believe the Boeing is going for an all out push to deliver around 14 787s this month. They have already delivered 6 this month including the last 787 for China Southern Airlines from their order of 10 aircraft.

As for deliveries for the rest of this month, in my opinion this is the aircraft I see being delivered in the next 12 days:

ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV) for Ethiopian
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) for Air New Zealand (1st 787-9 delivery)
ZA473 (LN 176, A7-BCN) for Qatar Airways
ZA580 (LN 183, EI-LNG) for ILFC/Norwegian
ZA656 (LN 184, 5Y-KZB) for Kenya Airways
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) for LAN
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) for United Airlines
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA) for ILFC/Thai (may not deliver until July)

Boeing does need to deliver many of these planes as ramp space is quickly being filled at both Everett and Charleston. There are about 30 planes that are outside on the flightlines, paint hangars and other spots at the two assembly locations but if the current pace of flight activity continues then much of that ramp space should be cleared over the next couple of weeks and occupied by aircraft that will be coming out of final assembly. It does seem that Boeing has a pretty good handle on the assembly aspect but the build quality still has to improve a bit in order to avoid inventories from creeping higher again.

Lastly, one additional note to my previous post regarding the 787-9. The FAA has certified this aircraft for ETOPS 330 thus fulfilling Boeing's promise to Air New Zealand to deliver the ETOPS certified aircraft.

Monday, June 16, 2014

FAA and EASA certifies the 787-9

Boeing announced this morning that the FAA and EASA has certified the 787-9 clearing the way for the first delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand. The first aircraft for the carrier is already undergoing production flight tests and should deliver in about 2 weeks.

Air New Zealand has ordered the Rolls Royce powered aircraft. Boeing has yet to start F&R/ETOPs testing on the GE powered version of the aircraft but that should start this month. I still believe that Boeing should deliver the first GE powered 787-9 to United Airlines late next month.

There has been some questions if the FAA would grant the Amended Type certificate to Boeing due to two separate issues: 1) a need to re-design a capacitor in the RAT and 2) an altitude select knob on the Mode Control Panel (MCP) that doesn't have enough torque and can lead to an error in setting attitude as directed by ATC. Boeing has asked for a time limited exemptions from these two issues and apparently the FAA and EASA has agreed. Flightglobal has an a detailed explanation of the issues in an article here.

I do anticipate that Boeing will be able to deliver 12 787-9 this year as follows:

Air New Zealand - 3
ANA - 2
Etihad Airways - 2
Scoot - 1
United Airlines - 2
Virgin Atlantic - 2

Here's Boeing Press Release announcing the award of the Amended Type Certificate:

Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Earns FAA, EASA Certification

Newest commercial airplane nears delivery on track

EVERETT, Wash., June 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787-9 Dreamliner has been certified by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) for commercial service. Boeing is now in the final stages of preparing for the first 787-9 delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand.

"Certification is the culmination of years of hard work and a rigorous flight-test program that started with the 787-9's first flight last September," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "With this validation that the airplane is ready for commercial operations, Boeing along with our airline and leasing customers now look forward to introducing the newest member of the Dreamliner family to passengers around the world."

To earn certification for the 787-9, Boeing undertook a comprehensive test program with five airplanes and more than 1,500 hours of flight testing, plus ground and laboratory testing. Following the rigorous and thorough certification process, the FAA and EASA each granted Boeing an Amended Type Certificate for the 787-9, certifying that the design complies with aviation regulations and is safe and reliable.

"Throughout 787-9 development, the dedication and discipline of our entire global team drove outstanding performance," said Mark Jenks, vice president, 787 Airplane Development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "From the start of assembly last spring to a flawless first flight and now our on-time certification, we thank everyone on the Boeing and partner team as well as our customers for making 787-9 development so successful."

The FAA also has granted Boeing an Amended Production Certificate, validating that the Boeing production system can produce 787-9s that conform to the design. EASA accepts FAA oversight of Boeing production certificates, just as the FAA accepts EASA oversight of European manufacturers' production certificates.

The new 787-9 Dreamliner will complement and extend the super-efficient 787 family. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters) over the 787-8, the 787-9 will fly more passengers and more cargo farther with the same exceptional environmental performance — 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering passengers features such as large windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

Twenty-six customers around the world have ordered 413 787-9s, accounting for 40 percent of all 787 orders.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

787 Production Update - June 2014

Thus far through the end of May Boeing has delivered 33 787s. With 7 months to go in the year, Boeing needs to ramp up the delivery rate if it is to deliver 110 787s by the end of the year. That means they have to deliver 77 aircraft in the last 7 months...11/month delivery rate.

May Review

May was a disappointing month. I was expecting at least 10 deliveries and Boeing managed 7. If the theme sounds familiar it's because it is. There is an expectations that Boeing delivery rate will match the 787 build rate which currently is at 10/month though the airplanes that have emerged from final assembly still have minor travelled work that needs to be completed. An interesting side to the delivery story for May though. Boeing, it seems had delivered 2 787s to Air India last month while the official tally on Boeing's Order and Delivery website show that they delivered 1 to the carrier. Sources have confirmed to me that Boeing did indeed make contractual delivery of ZA232 (LN 28, VT-ANC) though this aircraft still remains in Charleston. The reason for this is still unknown.

June Preview

Boeing has ramped up 787 flight activity significantly and has delivered 4 787s through the first 10 days of June. Some of these deliveries were slated for May but had rolled into June. Boeing will need to deliver at least 7 more 787s which, at least for now, looks like they can accomplish easily. They currently have 11 787s that are in production testing or that are ready for delivery. I do think that 8 to 9 of those can be delivered this month. Boeing should deliver the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand on June 30th pending a decision by the FAA (see below). ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) has been flying lately and should be ready for delivery in the next couple of weeks. Boeing will probably run a few more flight than they typically do in order to work out all the bugs and make sure that the aircraft has sufficient maturity to enter airline service.

787-9

Flightglobal revealed that Boeing is asking the FAA for a waiver in order to deliver the 787-9. The request is related to two items that are not compliant with the certification standards that Boeing and the FAA agreed to concerning the 787-9. Boeing is scheduled to deliver ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE), the first 787-9, to Air New Zealand on June 30th. The two issues are 1) a capacitor in the ram Air turbine (RAT) that failed during a flight test. This capacitor needs to be redesign and certified for use on the aircraft. The second issues relates to a dial on a control panel in the cockpit of the aircraft. The dial is altitude select knob that is used in the vertical flight mode. The dial can be inadvertently rotate 1 or 2 stops beyond the desired setting if the pilot just presses the knob and thus violate altitude range set by the ATC. There is a lack of sufficient torque that is causing this issue. This will be watched closely to see what the FAA will do but it is concerning especially since the 787-9 flight testing has gone so well. Boeing doesn't want to deliver this aircraft late even by a few weeks let alone a few months.

Most of the 787-9 testing appears to have been completed though Boeing still has to undertake F&R/ETOPs flight testing using an production aircraft equipped with the GE GEnX-1B engines. I anticipate that ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) should take to the air within the next 10 to 14 days and should fly a comparable number of hours as ZB197 (LN146, JA830A).

Charleston Production Ramp Up

Boeing is preparing to ramp up the 787 production at Charleston to 3/month from the current 2. This switch should take place in early to mid July. Boeing is currently loading a 787 into Position 1A every 12 to 13 days. They will need to load one every 10 days but the number of available assembly spots to conduct assembly activities has been reduced to 6 from 8 as two positions are undergoing construction (Position 1B and Position 6).

ETOPS 330

Boeing did get some good news from the FAA last month when the approved the 787-8 for ETOPS 330. This means the 787-8 can operate from an airport that is no further than five and half hours flying time in case of an emergency. This means the carriers can fly more direct and fuel efficient routes, especially over the Pacific and fully take advantage of the 787s capabilities. It is now up to the local civil aviation regulators to approve or deny the airlines that are under their oversight to fly the 787 under ETOPS 330. The 787-9 will not receive this certification until much later but it will probably be Boeing's next major certification as Air New Zealand is eager to have the aircraft certified for ETOPS 330. I do not know when Boeing plans to achieve ETOPS 330 certification for the 787-9.