Boeing Charleston to undergo FAA audit while production heats up. January 787 deliveries look to come in low.

UPDATE: The FAA sent out this response to the audit:  "The FAA will conduct a regularly-scheduled audit of the Boeing Commercial Aircraft production system in February. Boeing’s North Charleston, SC facility will be included in the audit. Five FAA inspectors will assess that Boeing’s systems are in compliance with the regulations for the manufacture of airplanes."


UPDATE:  Boeing emailed me this response:  "This routine audit, conducted about every two years at multiple Boeing locations, is part of Boeing maintaining our Production Certificate 700.  It’s not focused solely on Boeing South Carolina."


FAA Audit at Boeing Charleston

Sources revealed that Boeing Charleston will be undergoing an extensive audit, possibly one of the largest in Boeing's history, as the FAA examines Boeing's production practices.  Among the items that the FAA will be examining will be tool accountability, lost or missing tools, calibration dates, mismatched tools/tooling kits among others.  There will be 5 inspectors who will be at Charleston starting January 27th and remaining there until February 14th.  They will be looking over the shoulders of the manufacturing techs (MT) at the Charleston plant and will be quizzing them about the processes that they are using and how those specs and engineering were authorized.  It was revealed by the Wall Street Journal that Boeing is adding 300 contract workers and may increase that number to as many as 1,000.





Sources described the production of the mid body fuselage section built in building 88-20 as "a complete disaster, a cluster fuck."  This is a very worrying development to Charleston workers as some of them feel that the FAA may shut them down because of issues the audit may uncover.  88-20 is clearly the weakest link in Boeing 787 production chain as it is this unit that produces the mid bodies for all 787s whether they are built in Everett or Charleston.  Some MTs from the final assembly line in 88-30 have been sent to 88-20 to help reduce the strain that this area is facing.  Boeing has promised its MTs an 8% bonus if they can get the 16,000 jobs that they are behind on down to 8,000 by the end of February. If the issues in 88-20 worsen it could lead to slow down of 787 production and deliveries at least for this year.  This is not the first time that the South Carolina plant had undergone an audit.  In June 2008 the FAA audited the 88-20 plant which was then under the 50/50 joint venture between Boeing and Alenia Aeronautica of Italy known as Global Aeronautica.  The audit uncovered lax manufacturing standards and forced a 24 hour shut down of the plant to go over proper procedures regarding FoD.


I have reached out the FAA and Boeing Charleston for comment.  The FAA will inquire and get back to me.  I will update this post if I hear back from either party.





Meanwhile 787s continue to be built...



The FAA audit notwithstanding, Boeing continues to build 787s at both plants at a rate of 10/month.  This month Everett will have started assembly on 9 Dreamliners and Charleston would have started final assembly on 2 aircraft.  Boeing has rolled out quite a few unpainted 787s over the last few weeks onto the flightline.  Usually they go straight to paint after being rolled out.  I'm not sure why they changed this though Boeing test flight could be doing some ground testing before the aircraft is painted.  Whether the 10/month rate can be sustained due to the production issues in Charleston, particularly the mid body assembly in 88-20 remains unclear though this is why Boeing has bought in the contract workers.



Boeing did rollout the first 787 to be produced at the 10/month rate though they said that the aircraft is L/N 155 (ZA564) which is a 787 for ILFC being leased to Aeromexico.  Back in November when Boeing announced that they had started production on the first 787 at 10/month (through Randy Tinseth's Blog) they did not identified the aircraft that had the distinction of being built at that rate.  I was able to identify the aircraft as L/N 152 (ZA188) for Japan Airlines which sources told me was loaded into the first position and started final assembly on Nov. 14, 2013.  When asked about the apparent discrepancy, a Boeing spokesperson insisted that the aircraft that was loaded on Nov. 14th was L/N 155 not L/N 152.  I stand by my belief that the aircraft that kicked of the 10/month production rate is L/N 152.



First deliveries in 2014



Boeing has already delivered 1 787 this month to ANA and is in the process of delivering United's 9th 787 on Jan. 27th. I was expecting quite a few more by now to be handed over.  ZA469 (LN 129, A7-BCH) for Qatar Airways spent a long time being painted (and repainted), first in Ft. Worth, then at Boeing's paint facility in Portland, OR.  I assumed that it was now ready to finish production flight tests and be handed over to the customer but it has been hauled back inside 88-30 in Charleston for unknown reasons.  There are several more Qatar Airways 787s waiting to fly and to be painted but are sitting on the flightline at Boeing Charleston.  It appears that Boeing will not deliver any 787s to Qatar Airways this month.  They are trying to get a couple more to ANA as well as to the first BBJ customer - the Saudi Finance Ministry.  I also believe Boeing can deliver one to ILFC which will leased as a business jet to Sky Blue Holdings.  Boeing may be able to deliver one (maybe 2) to Air India as ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) has been conduction flights as of late. ZA231 (LN 26, VT-ANB) conducted flight tests last month but none this month.  I'm not sure if  ZA231 is ready to be delivered. A very real reason for the slower deliveries is the weather in Everett probably played havoc with the flight tests as Everett suffered from several days of foggy conditions.  There were no test flights for quite a few days as the fog lingered around Paine Field.






Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators





 

787 Firing Order Updated

The 787 firing order has been updated.  The order for L/N 181 to L/N 200 are now listed and doesn't contain too many surprises.  This firing order should be for aircraft that will enter final assembly through April (end of April).

Here's a quick breakdown:

New operators:

Thai (leased from ILFC)
Arke (formerly Arkefly, through TUI Travel)
Royal Jordanian

Breakdown:
ANA - 1
BBJ - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 1
Kenya Airways - 2
ILFC - 2
LAN - 2
QANTAS - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Jordanian - 1
TUI Travel - 3
United - 2

Only one 787-9 will be going through production and this aircraft is slated for United Airlines (ZB167).

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

Breaking: JAL 787 experience battery issue. Gases vented though revised system

Boeing is reporting that a JAL 787 experienced a smoke condition that may have come from the venting of a single lithium ion battery cell.  The aircraft was on the ground in Tokyo in maintenance.  There weren't any passengers on the aircraft at the time but Boeing did say that the revised containment/venting system did work as advertised.  JAL said that there was liquid coming from the power pack and that there was fault in the battery and charger.  While the info on this is still coming out, one thing that is known that only one of the eight cells in this one battery was effected and it seems, at the moment, that the other seven cells were unaffected by what happened with the other cell.  Again this information is preliminary.  Boeing redesigned the battery so that any thermal conditions in one cell doesn't spread to the others. It appears that this redesign may have worked.  The question, however, still remains as to if this was another battery event and if so, why this cell experienced a thermal event. I don't have any information as to the identity of the aircraft other than it was a JAL 787.

787 issue on ground at Narita appears to involve venting of single battery cell during maintenance. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014

Improvements to 787 battery system appear to have worked as designed. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014

We regret the impact to Japan Airlines & are working with them to return the airplane to service. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014

Today's incident aboard a JAL 787 comes almost exactly one year after the Dreamliner fleet was grounded by global regulators in 2013.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) January 14, 2014

Boeing says no passengers aboard JAL 787 during apparent "venting of a single battery cell." Occurred during maintenance at Narita.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) January 14, 2014

I'll update this post as more information is available.

Air Canada give glimpse of its new 787...and Boeing's revised assembly line

Air Canada posted photos of its first 787, that is due to be delivered later this spring, in assembly in building 40-24.  In my last post, I talked about Boeing revised assembly process which now integrates an additional line position for a total of 5.  The first position of the assembly process now appears to be a dedicated to assembly of large sub-assemblies. 


Specifically the fully assembled wings (with all movable surfaces) is integrated to the main fuselage section in the 1st position.  Next to this large sub-assembly is the rear fuselage (sections 47/48) is integrated with the vertical and horizontal stabilizers.  The forward fuselage (section 41) is positioned ahead next to the 2nd line position. It is at this second line position where all three fuselage sections will be joined together.  Once the second position is cleared the forward fuselage in transferred into the line position, then the main fuselage with the wings attached is moved forward right behind the section 41.  The rear fuselage assembly is then shifted to the left and then moved forward to a place behind the main fuselage assembly.  The three sections are then joined and all appropriate connections are made before the aircraft is moved to the third line position where it would receive its gear and engines.


The new process is part of Boeing's efforts to reduce the build time for each 787 as well as reduce production costs.  It has been reported that Boeing is still assembling 787s at a cost greater than the sales price thus the drive to find efficiencies through efforts like revising the production process as well as programs like "Partnering For Success" will be key to reducing those production costs.


You can see the Air Canada production photos on Facebook by clicking here.

Boeing achieves 2.8 book to bill on 787 in 2013, readjusts Everett assembly lines

During 2013 Boeing took in 182 787 order (the majority in 787-10) while delivering 65 of them.  This equates to a book to bill ratio (a measure of demand) of 2.8.  The higher the book to bill the higher the demand for that product.  It does remain unclear, however, if Boeing can maintain that kind of performance on the 787. In 2012 the book to bill was 1.09 (50 orders to 46 deliveries).  Undoubtedly the addition of the 787-10 helped tremendously as this airplane accounted for 132 of the 182 net orders Boeing took in.  Boeing needs to ride the 787-10 wave in 2014 and if the 787-9 meets its performance guarantees, it can spur a new flurry of orders for that airplane as well. Boeing will need to book at least 120 to 130 orders to maintain a healthy book to bill ratio in the coming years.  This may prove to be difficult as the A350 will be coming on line as well.






Boeing adds 5th position on assembly lines.


Boeing production machine is getting revved up for the 2014 production year.  While producing at 10/month will help drive some cost reductions that they desperately need, Boeing is only re-working the 787 assembly lines.  In Everett they have inserted a 5th position into the main production line in 40-26 as well as the surge line in 40-24.  Sources say that this position (which is the new position 1) is to allow wing integration work prior to the main wing-body join.  This is suppose to say time integrating wing components after the main join.  Thus the spreadsheets will show a 5th position for Everett.  It does appear that Charleston is already using the same plan as they are also using 5 (out of 8) positions for final assembly of the 787s. 


Boeing does look like it will start assembling 11 787s this month but I expect them to be at 10 next month with 2 from Charleston and 8 from Everett.  In terms of deliveries in January I can see Boeing delivering about 8 aircraft.  Here's my breakdown this month:


Air India - 2
ANA - 3
BBJ - 1
ILFC - 1
Qatar - 1


I was expecting Qatar deliveries to be greater but they have been very particular about the condition of the 787s at delivery and thus these aircraft have been parked at Charleston for a vey long time.  Boeing has switched production of the Qatar 787s to Charleston but with the pickiness exhibited by this customer, Boeing may switch it back to Everett.


Lastly, let me leave you with the Tweet of the Day:

Dear sneeze, If you are going to happen, happen. Don’t put a stupid look on my face and leave it at that. Sincerely, I look like an idiot.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) January 8, 2014

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

787 Program: 2014 Look ahead

What's in store for the 787 program in 2014.  A lot it appears.  Let's take a look at what is expected for this program:

787-9

Undoubtedly, the biggest development that will come in 2014 is the certification and entry into service of the larger version of the 787, the 787-9.  This aircraft is already in the middle of certification testing by Boeing with FAA personnel on board observing.  First delivery of ZB003 is scheduled for sometime in July of 2014 which indicates that Boeing should be complete with testing around May of this year.  The FAA should give its blessing around mid to late June and first delivery in July to Air New Zealand.  Boeing is giving ANZ a preview as it flies ZB002 to Auckland tonight where it will be toured by company brass and local media. ZB002 will be eventually delivered to ANZ after it is refurbished at the conclusion of the testing and certification program (along with ZB001).

All indications are that the testing is going well though there hasn't been much official word from Boeing regarding progress.  ANZ plans to use the aircraft on routes from Auckland to Perth, Christchurch, Shanghai and Tokyo with the 3 aircraft they expect in 2014.  ANZ is expected to stat service on Oct. 15, 2014 on the Auckland-Perth route.

Dispatch Issues

Boeing has been bombarded with reliability issues which have caused numerous headaches for their customers and the flying passengers.  Boeing has promised to get these issues down over the next 6 months so that the dispatch rates of the 787 will be at or better of the 777 rates.  Most of the issues seem to emanate from software and the frequency of warning messages that the pilots receive in the cockpit.  This has caused a lot of needless delays and cancellations.  Boeing is planning a major software change that will be certified by the middle of 2014 to reduce these false warning messages.  There are some who believe that this will not be the answer or the end to the reliability issues of the 787.

Production

Boeing has stated that 787 production has hit the promised goal of 10/month.  December was a slower month due to the Holiday season but I do expect that they will start to pick up the production pace this month at the 10/month rate.  I do expect that Charleston will be at 2/month while Everett will split the 8/month between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.

787-10

Now that the 787-10 has launched, Boeing will be pouring engineering resources into the design of the aircraft this year.  I expect the firm configuration to be completed next year with detailed design in 2016, final assembly of first flight of the first 787-10 in 2017 and delivery in 2018.  I do expect more order for the 787-10 but I think many of them will come in the form of conversions or exercising options and purchase rights.

Deliveries

Now that Boeing is hitting a rate of 10/month, this begs the questions of how many can they deliver in 2014.  In terms of new builds, I can see Boeing delivering around 100 to 110 aircraft. Remember, the production rate is vastly different from the delivery rate which is still not stable.  In terms of the aircraft working their way through change incorporation, I do believe Boeing can deliver around 7 to 9 aircraft.  This is a huge year over yer increase in deliveries but Boeing needs to execute if they want to regain integrity in the program.

There will be some new customers for the 787 this year.  Many are publicly known but there are some operators who will be receiving the aircraft on a lease basis.  Here is a list of airlines that will be taking their first 787s this year, though it is not a comprehensive list.

Carrier
Air Canada
Air New Zealand
American Airlines
Avianca
Azerbaijan Airlines
BBJ-Saudi Ministry of Finance
Etihad Airways
Kenya Airways
Royal Air Maroc
Royal Jordanian Airlines
Scoot Pte Ltd
Virgin Atlantic Airways
Xiamen Airlines


There are some current customers who will take their first 787-9 this year including ANA and JAL



Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

787 Program 2013 Year in Review: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

2013 for the 787 program was a mixed bag for Boeing.  The program is on a firmer footing compared to a year ago but issues certainly has hit the program hard.  Boeing did deliver 63 (by my count, this may increase as Boeing may have made contractual delivery prior to New Years but fly away may occur after New Years Day) 787s in 2013.  Currently there are 17 operators and 16 customers of the 787.  The delivered fleet count is now 112 aircraft delivered to the 16 customers.  Here's my take on the past year:

The Good

Boeing executed the planned increases in production rate to 10/month as promised and they had also launched the 787-10 which promises to be a big seller and has 132 firm orders 6 months after the formal program launch.  Boeing's guidance for deliveries in 2013 was more than 60.  Boeing has delivered 63 787 but this number may grow as contractual deliveries may have been made prior to January 1, 2014.  Lastly, Boeing has started flight testing the 787-9 the larger iteration of the 787-8.  There has been no apparent hiccups and flight testing looks to be going very smoothly for this aircraft.  Certification testing has begun for both the GE and Rolls Royce powered aircraft.  First delivery is still slated for mid 2014.

The Bad

The 787 continues to suffer from teething issues which has impacted customer on time dispatch rates. Numerous customer complaints, some of which were very public (Norwegian). The issues, many of which are traced the software, are expected to be fixed by summertime but it do damage to the 787 brand.  The continued teething issues will continue to be a sore point between Boeing and its customers but when the aircraft is flying revenue flights, it is making money for its owners.

The Ugly

The ugly certainly is the lithium ion battery short circuit that caused a fire on a JAL 787 in Boston and a smoke condition on an ANA aircraft that was airborne.  The subsequent grounding raised a lot of the certification of the aircraft and the electrical architecture which became the subject of Congressional hearings.

Boeing did devote a tremendous amount of resources to develop a new containment and venting system that would ensure that a fire couldn't go beyond the battery itself.  This focus on finding a way to contain a fire without knowing the root cause of the battery overheating was very controversial but not without precedent. Boeing was able to convince the FAA, customers and other international aviation regulators of the effectiveness of the new system that flights resumed in late April and deliveries restarted in May.

In July, Boeing got another fire scare as an Ethiopian 787 that had just completed a flight to London's Heathrow Airport experienced a fire in the rear crown area of the aircraft. British investigators traced the fire to the aircraft's emergency locator transmitter (ELT) but the investigation is still not final.  Boeing repaired the aircraft in a closely watched process.  There have always been questions as to large composite sections can be repaired.  Boeing got this first opportunity and they were apparently successful as the aircraft has returned to service with Ethiopian last month.

Coming Soon: Look ahead to 2014 for the 787 program and my predictions.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators