Boeing rolls out 1st 787-9, deliveries increased last week.

Photo Courtesy of The Boeing Corporation

 

 

Boeing rolled out the first 787-9 to the flightline in preparation for first flight and the start flight and certification testing.  The program is expected to last approximately six months and would use three dedicated flight test aircraft: ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX), ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT), and ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) as well as one production standard aircraft that is not equipped with flight test gear: ZB197 (LN 146) which is earmarked for delivery to ANA.

Currently ZB001 is at the Everett fuel dock where it will undergo fueling tests and first start up of its APU.  Later it will move to the flightline for first engine start, gauntlet testing taxi tests and finally first flight.  I anticipate that ZB001 should be flying in about 2 - 3 weeks from now depending on how the other testing goes.  Here's the text of Boeing's press release:

Boeing Rolls Out First 787-9 Dreamliner

Second member of the super-efficient 787 family on track

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] has completed the first 787-9 Dreamliner. The second member of the super-efficient 787 family rolled out of the Everett, Wash., factory today to the flight line, where teams are preparing it to fly later this summer.

At 20 feet (6 m) longer than the 787-8, the 787-9 will extend the 787 family in both capacity and range, carrying 40 more passengers an additional 300 nautical miles (555 km). The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8 such as its exceptional environmental performance — 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes — and passenger-pleasing features.

With the second and third airplanes in final assembly, Boeing and the 787-9 are on track. First delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand is set for mid-2014.

In other production news, Boeing delivered 6 787s between Aug. 16th and Aug. 23rd.  Looking ahead o the last week of August they will certainly deliver at least 2 more (1 each to Japan Airlines and Hainan Airlines).  There is a possibility of delivering two more to Air India but these deliveries, which were expected to take place last week and were held up due to Air India's inability to find financing to complete the purchase, may be held even longer due to the aforementioned inability to secure bridge financing.  Boeing had hoped to deliver one more 787 to British Airways this month but due to technical issues which forced the cancellation of 2 attempts to carry out B-1 testing it is now doubtful that this aircraft can be delivered this month.  Boeing will, at the very least, finish up August with 9 deliveries possibly 11.

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Everett has a busy day with locally built 787s, Charleston silent

Today was a busy day for the 787s at Everett with a couple of deliveries and a few test flights that is setting up for more deliveries in the coming couple of weeks.

Boeing started out the day by delivering 2 787s, one to ILFC for Aeromexico (ZA561) and one to Thomson (ZA320)).  The 787 for Air India (ZA242) which I reported as delivered yesterday will actually be delivered on Monday August 19 and flown to India on August 20th.  To date Boeing has delivered (not counting the Air India jet) 76 with 3 coming this month so far. 

there were quite few test runs today with two aircraft performing both Boeing and customer test flights on the same day.  This indicates that Boeing is trying to fast track the aircraft for delivery later this month (perhaps next week).  ZA577 (for ILFC/Norwegian), ZA122 (ANA) and ZA383 (China Southern) all flew today with the later two doing customer flights.  ZA452 (British Airways) was to conduct a re-run of its aborted B-1 flight but the pilots apparently could not start one of the engines...not good.

ZA452 G-ZBJC flite delayed unable to start one engine
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) August 16, 2013

I guess they'll try again tomorrow. Boeing is aiming for a significant number of deliveries, it seems, from Everett. Here are the delivereis that I think will be made over the next 2 weeks:

Japan Airlines : ZA186
ANA: ZA121, ZA122
China Southern: ZA383
Air India: ZA242
British Airways: ZA452
Norwegian/ILFC: ZA577

It is possible, if Charleston is able to, to have a couple more deliveries:

Qatar Airways: ZA467
LAN: ZA539

Totally, Boeing has the ability to deliver 12 total this month but some of this depends on what shows up during the customer flights and if Charleston will able to start to deliver aircraft.  Through all the 787 activity of the past few weeks, very little has come out of Charleston.  Indeed, of the 9 787s that are complete (including one that is in Ft. Worth being painted) none of these airplanes have had a customer flight in preparation for delivery.  The silence from Charleston has been deafening but it may not be entirely there fault.  They are saddled with 6 787s that are to be delivered to three problem child airlines (Air India, China Southern and Hainan Airlines).  The coming week should reveal more in terms of activity at Charleston.

Lastly, I've updated the tables with the most current information that I have available including the load dates for ZA321 (September 3) and ZB021 (August 21).  Interestingly, Boeing is increasing he number of days between airframes in 40-26.  The time between loading ZA216 for Jetstar  and ZA650 is 12 days.  The number of days between ZA650 and ZA321 is 15 days (including one day for the US Labor Day holiday).  I suspect when Boeing get the inventory down at Everett and Charleston we should see a return to the days where Boeing was loading a 787 every 5.5 days at Everett.  Don't even ask me about Charleston.


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Boeing delivers 75th 787 to Air India

According to Matt Cawby, a local Everett photographer, ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) is at the Everett Delivery Center.  This indicates that this particular aircraft has been delivered by Boeing.  I expect that the aircraft will fly away to India later tonight or tomorrow.  Boeing has now delivered 75 787s since deliveries began almost 2 years ago. This delivery is Air India's 8th 787 and should allow them to start the planned Australia routes.

Air India 787 VT-ANN is at the Everett Delivery Center this afternoon
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) August 15, 2013

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Breaking: Boeing plans 7 to 10 787 rate break at aircraft number 158

As summer is pushing into fall, the pressure for Boeing to make good on their promise to produce the 787 at 10/month is growing.

It is being revealed, exclusively on this blog, that Boeing plans to break rate to 10/month starting with L/N 158 (ZA244, VT-ANP) a 787 for Air India that will be built in Charleston.  I expect this aircraft to be loaded sometime around November or December and should roll out around January with delivery around February or March (it's Air India after all).  Currently the production rate is less than 7/month and flightlines at both Everett and Charleston are crowded.  Until more deliveries are made, I don't see 787 production rates at Everett going above 5 to 6 per month.

In other news, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) and ZA445 (LN 128) switched positions with the later going to40-24 and the former in 40-26.  It seems that the installation of the flight test equipment on ZB001 is complete and it could be getting its tanks washed out.  This aircraft can be rolled to the flightline soon (only if a stall opens up).  ZA445 for Royal Brunei is probably having the last of its interiors fitted and should be rolled out within the next few days as there is a schedule line move in 40-26 on August 19th when ZA650 (LN 136, EI-LNC) for Norwegian is loaded to start final assembly.

Thus far through mid August Boeing has delivered only 1 787 to Qatar Airways.  There has been a number of customer flights on undelivered 787s at Everett but interestingly of the 7 Dreamliners at Charleston that have flown, none of the flights that have been undertaken are customers flights in preparation for delivery as of yet.  5 of the 7 are aircraft for Chinese and Indian carriers with another aircraft for China Southern still waiting to conduct its first flight.  Aeromexico should take delivery by tomorrow but timing of further deliveries is uncertain.

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787 musical chairs continues at Everett

As 787 flight testing continues to progress. Boeing is still producing 787s although it seems it is at a slower rate.  The load dates since June 26 bear this out but please note that this does not include the second 787-9.

L/N 127 - 6/26/13
L/N 128 - 7/2/13 (8 days)
L/N 130 - 7/16/13 (14 days)
L/N 131 - 7/26/13 (10 days)
L/N 134 - 8/7/13 (12 days)
L/N 136 - 8/19/13 (12 days)

Recent 787s have been loaded into the first assembly position in 40-26 at rate of 1 every 12 days. this is about half the rate that a 787 needs to be loaded in order to produce 5.5 airframes per month from Everett (not counting 787-9 test frame production).  The reason for the production slowdown is yet unknown but I do think that it is helping Boeing to manage the inventory build up at both Charleston as well as at Everett.

In other news, Boeing allocated L/N 22 (ZA803) to Transaero thus the 4 aircraft order for this carrier will be filled by 4 early build airframes 2 of which are currently under going change incorporation and will probably be delivered sometime in the 1st quarter of 2014.  Boeing has also moved the three airframes occupying Kilo South at Paine Airport to the runway 11-29 storage area and the tower ramp.  As Boeing continues to work through the early production frames that need change incorporation the number of early build 787s being stored around the airport will gradually shrink though at a slower rate as these air frames do require a lot of work and thus more time.  Boeing has also pulled another airframe that had undergone change incorporation onto the flightline.  This time is it is ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) and appears to be preparing for production testing.  This aircraft maybe delivered in September. Lastly, Boeing had one canceled 787 this year which was just posted.  The sole 787 cancelled was from Travel Service of the Czech Republic.  The opted to switch their order to 3 737 MX 8 instead.

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Uptick in 787 flight testing could led to higher August delivery count

In the past one week there has been an increase in 787 flight test activity mostly out of Everett but some activity out of Charleston as well.  In the period from July 31 to August 7 inclusive, Boeing has conducted the first flights of 7 production 787s (B-1 flights).  There were a number of follow on Boeing and customer flights on several other 787s including ferrying 787s to be painted in Ft. Worth.

Of interest, it appears that Boeing is preparing several airframes for delivery to Chinese and Indian carriers.  Of the 30 787s that is finished with assembly activities, 14 are for Air India, China Southern and Hainan.  It looks like Boeing can possibly deliver as many as three 787s each to Hainan and China Southern and at least 1 (probably 2) to Air India.  One aircraft for Air India, ZA242 (LN 90, VT-ANN) has already flown at least 4 customer flights in addition to 5 Boeing test flights).

Boeing Charleston has been also very slow to deliver their 787s.  There are currently 7 airframes on the flightline there plus one more in Ft. Worth being painted but the last delivery from Charleston occurred over a month ago on July 4th.  It doesn't help that most of the 787s (6 out of 8) are waiting to be delivered to the aforementioned problem child airlines (China Southern, Hainan, and Air India).

Boeing does seem to be on track to deliver a significant number of 787s this month if they continue this pace and their customers are ready to accept them into their fleets.  The lack of any significant media attention over the past 1 to 2 weeks has probably calmed nerves and lessened anxiety amongst customers.  I'm still standing by my previous guidance of 1 to 13 this month but their is certainly a better probability now (compared to a week ago) that this number could be exceeded.  Boeing should undertake several more first flights in the days ahead (3 more) where these airplanes should be ready to deliver by the end of the month.  If I count in the Chinese carriers. the number could be as high as 17 to 19.


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Boeing delivers 7 Dreamliners in July

As July drew to a close Boeing was trying to get out the last few 787s into customer's hands as fast as it could.  Boeing delivered 7 787s in July and it narrowly missed delivering an 8th to Air India but was delayed when an electrical power panel had issues and needed to be replaced.

Still Boeing 787 deliveries was able to keep pace with production output during July since Boeing resumed production in Everett in late June after temporarily halting production to re-configure the final assembly floor in 40-26.

I am expecting a lager delivery number in August mainly due to a large number of 787s that are in both pre-flight as well as those that are undergoing production flight tests.  As of August 1, 2013 there are 29 787s (not including the lone 787-9) that are listed as in pre-flight, production testing, or ready of delivery. There are 16 aircraft in pre-flight, 11 that are undergoing production (flight tests) testing and 2 that are ready for delivery.  I do think that Boeing can see a significant delivery month with 787s being delivered as follows:

ANA : 2
TUI Travel : 1
Qatar Airways : 2
Aeromexico (ILFC) : 1
Norwegian (ILFC) : 1
LAN : 2
British Airways : 1
JAL : 1
Air India : 2

This is a total of 13.  If you noticed I did not include (again) any potential deliveries to the Chinese airlines as they have become notoriously unreliable, along with Air India, for not taking delivery of aircraft that are obviously ready.  China Southern Airlines along with Air India, and Hainan Airlines account for 14 of the 29 aircraft that have completed final assembly and are awaiting delivery.

However, there seems to be movement at Everett and Charleston that would indicate that the log jam of deliveries to India and China might be finally loosened.  Boeing has conducted several test flights of 787s destined for Air India and China Southern.  Boeing also has moved aircraft to the active flightline at Everett for Hainan and China Southern..  It seems that Boeing might be preparing to deliver some of these aircraft to China and India though I still am skeptical.  If there indeed a breakthrough then deliveries of 787s has the potential of going as high as 15 to 20. Boeing has been very aggressive with the production flight test program as of late and it is conceivable that August, usually a slow month of the year, can be a big delivery month for the 787.

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