United's First 787 Rolls out of Paint Hangar and other 787 news

United's First 787 Rolls out of Paint Hangar, a photo by The Boeing Company on Flickr.

Boeing and United Airlines rolled out the first 787 (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) for United Airlines in a webcast early this morning. The aircraft is due to be delivered by the end of September and placed into service sometime in the fall flying domestic routes at first then expanding into international routes starting with Houston - Tokyo.

Today the NTSB said that they are investigating the GEnx engine incident along with Boeign and GE at GE's plant in Oho. The engine will be trucked there in the next few days where it will be disassembled to examine each part. Prelionarily, GE is saying that there is no safety issue but they will contiue to work with the NTSB to figure out what happened. Now there is now word on if ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) is to receive a new engine or not but Boeing did fly ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) today without incident. It does look like that this icident is a one off issue as Boeing, GE and the FAA would have grounded all airplanes flying the GEnx engine which includes 20+ 747 and 4 787s.

Here's the test of the NTSB statement:

NTSB investigating Boeing 787 engine failure

July 31, 2012

WASHINGTON - The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating an engine failure that occurred on a Boeing 787 Dreamliner during a taxi test in Charleston, South Carolina.

On Saturday, July 28, 2012, Boeing and General Electric, the engine manufacturer, notified the NTSB that a Boeing 787 experienced an engine failure during a pre-delivery taxi test. As a result of the failure, it has been reported that the engine left debris on the active runway at Charleston International Airport and caused a brush fire. There were no passengers aboard the aircraft nor were there any fatalities or injuries.

Upon the notification of the incident, the NTSB sent an aviation investigator with extensive expertise in aircraft powerplants, to the scene on Sunday to gather information to better understand the circumstances of the event.

As a result, the NTSB decided to conduct an investigation and has named David Helson as the Investigator in Charge. In the next few days, an NTSB aircraft powerplants expert and a metallurgist from the NTSB Materials Lab will travel to a General Electric facility in Cincinnati, OH, to lead and coordinate the disassembly and examination of the engine in question.

The Federal Aviation Administration, Boeing and General Electric are parties to the investigation.

787 work continues despite GEnx engine issue

Work continued apace at both Everett and Boeing Charleston on the 787s that still need to be delivered.  In fact the number of planes that are in pre-flight is steadily increasing at Everett as in the number of airplanes that are entering change incorporation.
Tomorrow United Airlines will unveil it's first 787 as it is being rolled out of Boeing's paint hangar.  The rollout can be viewed by clicking here.  The roll out of ZA288 (LN 53, N27904) is to start at 8:30AM EST, 5:30AM PST. While United is unveiling it's newest addition this airplane won't actually be delivered for another 6 to 8 weeks.  It will join a gaggle of pre-flight 787s that are on the Everett ramp. 

Another JAL 787 just finished change incorporation (ZA178, LN 27) is currently in the paint hangar and most likely will be delivered sometime next month.  The number of 787s that are in change incorporation have also increased.  There are 4 Dreamliners in 40-24 for change incorporation and EMC has a full complement of 5 airplanes with another 4 outside of the hangar that are also being worked on. 

Boeing is still maintaining 35 - 42 787s to be delivered this year but it certainly looks like they have the ability to deliver more.  The long pole in the tent is issues like what cropped up with both engines (Trent 1000 and GEnx-1B) over the last few days with the GE being the most serious of the issues.  However, I do not anticipate that these events are going to be show stoppers in terms of continued delivery and safe operation of the airplanes that are or will be in service. 

Most of the noise is due to the media making it out to be more of a bigger deal just because of the history of the 787.  Scott Hamilton has put out a post where he believes that the GEnx engine problem on Saturday is a non-issue.  The NTSB is investigating and the engine which shed the parts will be torn down to discover what the problem may be.  Given that the GEnx engine is flying on both the 787 and 747 and hasn't experienced an issue thus far in revenue service of either of those airplanes.  It is too early to say if this issue will delay any 787 deliveries but GEnx powered 787s were flying today with one more flight scrapped before take off at Everett. In my opinion 787s will continued to be delivered this month.

Boeing and NTSB investigating 787 engine issue

Both Boeing and the NTSB are investigating an issue with a GEnx powered 787 that was about to conduct its first flight yesterday.  The aircraft in question is ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) for Air India.  This is the 2nd 787 built at the Boeing Charleston facility. Apparently a piece of debris fell out of the engine and landed on a grassy area next to the runway at Charleston.  The piece was apparently hot enough to spark a small fire that was promptly extinguished by the USAF fire fighting crew stationed at the joint use airport.

The investigation is in the early stages however I do think that this might be an issue that is either a one off manufacturing or maintenance issue issue with this particular aircraft and I have doubt that this would be a fleetwide issue as the GEnx-1B has been performing well up to now. I do suspect that this is more of a ground maintenance issue (perhaps something not secured properly) but the NTSB will have to make that final determination along with Boeing and GE.  At the time of the incident, ZA238 was doing taxi tests prior to undertaking its first flight.  It is not known if this will have a delivery impact on other 787s both at Charleston and Everett.  Currently there are 8 GE powered 787s that are ready or being readied for delivery including the for Dreamliners for Air India.  The other carriers include Ethiopian, Qatar, and Japan Airlines.  The aircraft for Qatar had completed a tour to the Farnborough Airshow where it performed an aerial routine for three days and returned to Everett without incident.  Jon Ostrower of the Wall Street Journal has a great article about the situation.

First 787 B-1 flight in almost 3 weeks scheduled to be conducted today

The first 787 B-1 flight to be conducted in almost three weeks is scheduled to take place today at about 10AM PT (1PM ET) today.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) will fly its first flight.  This aircraft is the first production airplane to be assembled though it is also the aircraft that needed the most modifications. It has been in Everett for over three years since it started final assembly. If goes according to plan, this aircraft should deliver to ANA by middle to late August depending on any issues that would need to be corrected.  The flight is on Flightaware.

According to a posting on the airliners.net forum, Boeing is planning to deliver some where around 7 '87s in August as follows:

ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) to ANA - 2nd to 3rd week of August
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Qatar - 4th week of August
ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) to Ethiopian - 4th week of August
ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) to LAN - last week of August
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA182 (LN 70, JA828J) to JAL - last week of August

Notable is the absence of ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) which was the first 787 that did not need to go to the EMC.  This airplane probably needs a little bit more time to finish off the 300 some assembly tasks that remained after being pulled out of the assembly line.  This list has the potential of adding 3 maybe 4 more 787s if the Indian Government finally approves the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing.  That is the potential of 10 to 11 deliveries next month and would take Boeing to almost to the 2/3 point of the total 787 deliveries that they have projected for 2012 (35 to 42 with 12 currently delivered).

787 info from Boeing's 2nd quarter earnings call

                                         Ethiopian's First 787 (ZA262) returning to Everett.
                                         Photo by Bernard Leighton

Today was quite a day for Boeing and the 787. A lot of news today so let's get started

Boeing's Earnings Call

Boeing Earning's came out today and showed quite an improvement.  As far as the 787 is concerned Boeing said a few things that were already known but let's go through the highlights.  Boeing is saying that they're seeing a high level of completion of aircraft coming out the final assembly line at Everett.  It's close to 100% apparently.  They're still tracking to increase production to 5/month by the end of this year and 10/month by the end of 2014.  Boeing is expecting to see higher 2nd half 787deliveries both from aircraft coming off the assembly line as well as those finishing change incorporation.  However Boeing does expect to see an increase in inventory as deferred production balance was recorded at $13.2bn and is expected to grow to about $20bn by the time the production rate hits 10/month after which there should be decline in this balance as airplanes are cleared out of inventory and the production system stabilizes at that rate.  In terms of deliveries Boeing said the deliveries were paced by customer demands and request.  It seems that this may be the reason why there hasn't been too much 787 pre-delivery activity at Everett.  They also said that aft fuselage production is a "hot spot" for Boeing in terms of 787 production and they still have some issues there which they're addressing. It's not a show stopper for the production rate increase. Jim McNerney said that the most important thing is that production is now occurring without the need to send airplanes to the Everett Modification Center (EMC) for change incorporation.  He also said that there is plan to get the aircraft that have to go through the EMC out in an orderly fashion.  He said that the EMC will continue to see work for the next year and half plus (so let's assume for another 18 to 21 months or end of first quarter 2014). Aside from Air India (a deviation from planned deliveries) which is all to well known, Boeing does have a ramp plan for deliveries for the second half of the year.  In terms of the improvement they said that ZA182 (LN70, JA828A) had about 160 open jobs left so they're seeing a lot of improvement in the condition of assembly.  Boeing is also seeing improvement at the EMC in terms of work behind schedule and shortages. They also said that the Trent 1000 gear box issue won't affect deliveries and 4 of 5 of airplanes ANA airplanes have been fixed and it's a very minor issue.  This issue won't affect deliveries of the airplane.  Boeing also gave more indications (there is greater fidelity on the evaluation of the business case) that they will do a 787-10X and that a decision should come later this year or early next year.  McNerney said that it does look like a good airplane which would have a lot of market demand. 

Looking ahead to 787 delivery forecast for the remainder of the year, Boeing said that they still expect to deliver between 35 and 42 787s for all of 2012.  They have already delivered 11.  This means that between 24 and 31 787s will be delivered by the end of this year and this will be split 50/50 between airplanes from EMC and those coming off the final assembly lines in Everett and Charleston.  Thus Boeing is saying that they would deliver between 12 to 15 787 each from EMC and the final assembly lines over the next 5 months starting in August (1 787 already has been delivered from the EMC in July).

Air India

Delivery of Air India's 787s is one step closer as an Indian Government Group of Ministers (GoM) had approved the deal between Boeing and Air India.  The matter now goes to the Indian Cabinet for final approval.  If and when that approval is given the delivery will take place and the fly aways will occur.  It's not known when the Indian CCEA will meet next but it is at his next meeting that the compensation deal will be discussed.

Aeromexico Order

Aeromexico added to the days news with a huge letter of intent (LoI) for 90 737 MAX8 and 737 MAX 9 as well as 10 787-9.  The deal is worth about $11bn.  It is not known if this order is inclusive of options of not but when the deal is finalized the numbers will then be known.  Aeromexico currently has orders for the 787-8 (both purchase and lease) and is expected to start taking deliveries starting in 2013.

Other News

The first 787 fro Ethiopian (see picture above) flew back to Everett this afternoon. ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) flew back in the Ethiopian scheme after spending close to two weeks in Ft. Worth being painted.  There were other 787s flights today but were test airplanes conducting Boeing test flights out of Boeing Field.  It is not known when the next B-1 flights will occur next but there are still some 787s that need the new gear box fro the Trent 1000 powered airplanes.  The timing of the next 787 test flights is also clouded by the planned closure of Everett's main renway from 4pm on August 2nd to 8AM on August 6th.  It is possible that Boeing can get 1 possibly 2 787s into the air for their B-1 flight before August 2nd but only if they're ready.

Trent 1000 gear box issue holding up deliveries: Aviation Week

According to an article by Guy Norris in Aviation Week, the gear box issue is holding up deliveries of the Trent 1000 powered aircraft as Boeing needs replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  There are numerous 787s on the Boeing flightline waiting to be delivered.  Of the 9 airplanes that I have listed as in final preps for delivery at Everett, 5 are equipped with the Trent 1000 engine.  According to Guy Norris' report, 17 Trents in total are affected by the gear box issue of which nine are on undelivered 787s that are earmarked for ANA.  Boeing and Rolls Royce are waiting for replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  Of the other 4 787s at Everett/Ft. Worth that are waiting to be delivered, one is in paint (ZA262), one for JAL (ZA182) just emerge from the paint hangar and will robably start pre-flight work soon, the one for Qatar Airways is still finishing up interior IFE work (ZA461) and another 787 that just appeared at the Boeing fuel dock, looks to be United Airlines first 787 (ZA288) and still has to go through painting before moving on the pre-flight.  All these are equipped with the GEnx engines. 

So it appears the bottleneck may be with the gear box issue with the Trent 1000 engines as each of the 5 Trent 1000 aircraft are all at different point in the pre-flight timeline. Each aircraft has to wait it turn while the aircraft that is further along must clear each pre-flight milestone before the B-1 flight.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Lastly, LAN says it is expected to take delivery of its first 787 (ZA536) in late August or early September.

787 power and delivery woes

With about a week to go in the month it is obvious that Boeing will have delivered only one 787 in the month but what is most disconcerting is the lack of any real progress on the Everett (and Charleston) flightline.  There are 7 Dreamliners that have "finished" final assembly and change incorporation with another two that are either being painted or are finishing up some last minute inflight entertainment installation tasks.  It's the 7 airplanes that has caught peoples' attention.  Thus far Boeing has not conducted a single 787 test flight (B-1 or otherwise) since ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian flew to Ft. Worth, Texas to be painted.  That was done on July 12th.  Additionally this aforementioned aircraft should have finished its paint job and flown back to Everett. Typically painting should have been completed in about a 10 to 11 days so it should fly back any day now, perhaps tomorrow. 

The first thought that the issue might be related to the gear box issues that has grounded 5 ANA 787s (3 have since gotten replacement parts and are back in the air).  However this is an issue that has effected (it appears) some of early delivered ANA 787s with the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines.  There are 787s with the GEnx engine that are ready to fly but have not flown just as yet.  Whatever is keeping these planes on the ground may be fleetwide though it hasn't stopped revenue flights.  It might be that Boeing is trying to finish up assembly tasks on each of these airplanes.  Boeing will have its earnings call on Wednesday morning.  It is hoped that there would be more clarification on this issue at that time.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Updated 787 delivery info for July and August

There is new updated delivery information from a variety of sources concerning future deliveries of the 787.  First off, ANA apparently has taken delivery of another 787 probably yesterday.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) was delivered and should fly to Japan tonight.  Apparently that looks to be the only delivery being made this month. However there is more clarity on future deliveries including those to Air India.
Air India - Ajit Singh, the Minister of Civil Aviation, reported that the GoI's CCEA should be taking up the matter of the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing in about 15 days. Now how soon after approval will these airplanes be delivered is another question.  According to a posting on airliners.net, the carrier can take delivery of four '87s before August 5th from the flightline at Charleston.  This is a rumor and there is nothing official to back it up as of yet.  We just have to stay tuned for this drama to play out.

LAN - The first aircraft for LAN has now been moved to the flightline and will presumably be starting the pre-flight testing prior to its B1 flight.  There has been some confusion as to when LAN will take this airplane but now there seems to be some clarification.  The CEO of LAN told Flightglobal that the carrier will take delivery in September.

ANA - ANA's 787 fleet is well into double digits with several more on the way.  There are 4 787s that are winding its way through pre-flight at Everett.  According to a posting in airliners.net, ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be making it's B1 flight tomorrow (July 18). This airplane is projected (of course not certain) to deliver around August 8th.  The three other 787s are all airplanes that didn't need any re-work done at the EMC.   It is quite possible that all these four airplanes can deliver in August though it's more likely that a couple will deliver in August and a couple more in September from this batch.  There are still 2 more late build airplanes that are in storage that wold have to finish some amount of change incorporation and I would expect that these airplanes will be delivered later this fall. a, ZA118 is registered as JA813A (LN 67).

Finally, here's an interesting article that sums up Farnborough 2012 air show from aerospace analyst Saj Ahmad.

Are 787 deliveries slowing down?

UPDATE: I got word that Qatar's first 787 will be delivered in August but it's still open as to when in August.  Given that at Everett there are only three 787s that have had their B-1 flight thus far (ANA, Qatar, & Ethiopian), I'm going to say that only one 787 will be delivered this month.  There hasn't been any word on other 787s that will have their B-1 flight but I expect that at least 2 more will take to the skies for the B-1 flight before the end of July in order to be delivered next month (ZA100 and ZA135).

There has been raised hopes and expectations that aviation geeks around the world would see an avalanche of 787 deliveries starting this summer.  However we've seen only a trickle and I am at a loss to explain it. The Everett ramp is getting full of 787s that have either finished change incorporation or are airframes that do not need to go through the EMC but just have a few hundred small jobs left to be done.  As successive airplanes come out of 40-26 the number of jobs that remain have fallen to less than 150 with ZA182 (LN 70) for JAL.  This aircraft has yet to appear on the Everett flightline though it has been more than 9 days per line move on July 3, about 12 days ago.  We may yet see ZA182 as early as tomorrow or Monday. 

In terms of getting these planes ready for delivery, while the monster jobs of change incorporation have been completed on those airplanes, there is still a long line for delivery as these planes must go through the step by step process of pre-flight ground test, Boeing flight tests, customer flight tests as well as customer inspections and quality control reviews.  It appears that there doesn't seem to be enough resources to tackle all this work for the 8-9 aircraft that are lined up ready for their turn.  Both ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) and ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) were expected to be delivered this month to ANA. It's looking like on ZA508 will make it and there is rumors of extra work needed to prepare ZA100 for flight.  This is the aircraft that needed the most rework as it was the first production standard 787 to enter final assembly.  It is not known when this airplane is to finally take to the air.

In the meanwhile the first 787 for LAN, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) is now on the 40-51 ramp after being painted and is presumably finishing up some assembly tasks.  There is some controversy about when it is to be delivered. with some reports saying delivery is in August but LAN is saying that they expect to take delivery of its first 787 late this year.  Right next to is a 787 for ANA registered JA813A.  This is registration that was assigned to ZA510 (LN 59) and previously I had it listed as in storage and not undergoing any change modification.  I doubt that this airplane could have prepared to quickly though it is possible that this airplane may certainly have had some work completed while outside the EMC and it engines attached. I'm trying to find out the true identity of this airplane beyond the registration.  There are some late build 787, notably ZA118 (LN 67, JA816A) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA817A) that have "gone missing."  I'm assuming that these airplanes, if one of them is not the ANA 787 that currently is sitting on the 40-51 ramp, are in the paint hangar.

Lastly, it is quite possible that ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian and ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways could be ready for delivery by the end of this month.  The former has conduct two Boeing test flights (including the ferry flight to Ft worth) and is currently being painted in Texas. I would expect this airplane back in Everett in about 7 to 8 days. It could could still conceivably conduct customer flights after its return to Everett before the end of the month.  ZA461 is more of a question mark as Boeing needs to complete some interior assembly tasks (may be related to the IFE System) prior to further Boeing and customer test flights.  Again it is entirely possible that his airplane could deliver by the end of this month.

Don't even ask me about Air India.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 4

Farnborough 2012 concluded with a bang from Boeing and United Airlines.  A huge 150 aircraft deal for 100 737 MAX 9 and 50 737-900ER all firm.  Airbus did well with the widebody A330 but no orders for the A350 or A380.  In fact Airbus admitted that it wold be a stretch to book 30 A380 orders this year.  They were hoping for a book to bill ratio of 1 in that program this year.  Here's the final tally for this years air show:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Avolon - 15 x A320NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU
Middle East Airlines - 5 x A320NEO, 5 x A321NEO - MoU
Synergy - 6 x A330-200, 3 x A330-200F - Firm
UTAir - 20 x A321 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU
United Airlines - 100 x 737 MAX 9, 50 x 737-900ER - Firm

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI
Chorus Aviation - 6 x Q400 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

First 787 for LAN painted and on the flightline

Everett photographer Matt Cawby got a stunning photo of LAN's first 787 ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) out on the 40-51 ramp after being painted.  The aircraft though reported by CAPA to be delivered in November is supposed to be delivered in August.  I expect that LAN should have at least two more 787s delivered by the end of this year.

787 production improving says Pat Shanahan

Speaking at the Farnborough Air Show, Pat Shanahan  is indicating that the backlog of 787s at Everett will be gone sooner then everyone realizes.  Boeing is making constant progress on the production front to such an extent that the backlog of 787s that are complete and ready to be delivered is growing.  The situation has been likened to people waiting on line at the market waiting to check out with each person waiting their turn on line.  The rate of 787s being released from production however, is exceeding the delivery rate though this should turn around sometime around the fall.  Dominic Gates put together a piece on the 787 production rebound and plans for future production of the 787-9 and the 777X at Everett as well as the future of the EMC and the 787 surge line.  It is expected that the surge line should be activated for production sometime this fall and allowing Boeing to go t o 5/month.  Dominic also confirmed the ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) should be delivered this month to ANA.  This is the first 787 to enter final assembly back in June 2009.  It has taken three years to deliver this airplane.

Other 787 News

During this pas week, Rolls Royce announced at the Farnborough 2012 air show that they will develop a new version of the Trent 1000 engine called Trent 1000-TEN (for Thrust, Efficiency and New technology).  This engines is to have a 3% improvement in specific fuel consumption over the current package "B" Trent 1000 though I'm not sure how it compares to the the Package "C" engine which is currently undergoing testing in Derby, UK.  The engine is to power the 787-8, 787-9 and the proposed 787-10 aircraft at a thrust of 76,000 lbs but can go as high as 78,0000.  The idea of being able to power all three versions of the 787 is to provide for commonality for customers who order different versions of the aircraft.  It'll be interesting to see if there is commonality across the older versions of the Trent 1000 family.  The engine is expected to enter service in 2016 though a customer has yet to commit to the engine.  Click here to read Rolls Royce's press release.

The Air India saga continues with no delivery date in sight unfortunately.  Final approval could come tonight or it could come when hell freezes over, I'm betting on the later.  Reuters put out an article describing how the Air India 787 order is in the limbo by being caught in the Government of India bureaucracy.  Currently the Ministry of Civil Aviation is waiting for some sign off from some obscure other department and then some such committee can sign off on the compensation deal between Boeing and Air India.  This can really mess with your head. Bottom line is that the 4 airplanes currently sitting on the Charleston flightline aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 3

Farnborough 2012 is starting to wind down though I do expect one more big order from United Airlines to come through tomorrow.  Rumor has it that this will be for the 737 MAX and the order wll be announced in Chicago. I'll still list it here as part of the running order totals from Farnborough.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
CALC - 28 x A320, 8 X A321 - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
CIT Group - 5 x A330- Firm
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

ATR
Air Lease Corp - 2 x ATR 72-600
LAO Airlines - 2 x ATR 72-600
Nordic Aviation - 1 x ATR 42-600
TransAsia - 8 x ATR 72-600

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
Avolon - 10 x 737 MAX 8, 5 x 737 MAX 9, 10 x 737-800 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Mitsubishi
SkyWest Airlines - 100 x MRJ - MoU

Sukhoi
Interjet - 5 x SSJ-100

787 delivery insight from CAPA

Center of Aviation has released it 787 delivery expectations for several carriers, including Air India.

To summarize, CAPA says that they do expect Air India to take delivery of the 3 787s that are parked at Charleston sometime this month.  We're still waiting word from the Government of India if they have approved the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing. I expect that the only other airline to take 787s this month will be ANA which has several that are ready to be delivered this month and next month.  Air India is expecting 4 more planes by the end of the year.

CAPA is expecting that Qatar and Ethiopian will receive their first 787s in August and thus far that looks to be the case as ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) took its first flight yesterday but still has to be painted. It should receive three more before the end of the year.  Qatar's first 787 (ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) is finishing up its Farnborough tour tomorrow and returning to Everett that evening.  It will undergo further outfitting at Everett.  Qatar should receive 4 more planes by the end of the year.

China Southern will take its first 787 in August as well and will have a special scheme on it. IT should receive 2 more by the end of the year.  The three airplanes are still undergoing change incorporation with two of them inside the EMC.

United released images of the special livery scheme that will be painted on their 787s.  They're expecting their first plane in September reports are between September 15th and September 30).  It will receive one more in October, 2 in November and one more in December for a total of 5 by the end of the year.

Interestingly, the CAPA report says that LAN will get its first 787 in October.  Currently the first one is in the paint hangar, presumably being painted.  I don't know if this is true or if Boeing is going to hang on to the airplane until October.  It does look like it is ready for delivery though and LAN should take 2 this year and three next year.  There is one more currently in final assembly and one more should enter 40-26 by middle of next month.  I do think that Boeing could deliver one each month from August to October for a total of three. There are two more that are being stored on the flightline at Everett.

Lastly LOT Polish Airlines is slated to receive one 787 in November but there is one that is in change incorporation right now with four more slated to start final assembly between the end of July and middle of October.  Surely several of these airplanes should be ready before November?

Interesting we should look at the totals that are expected to be delivered for the aforementioned carriers:

Air India - 7
China Southern - 3
Ethiopian - 4
Qatar - 5
LAN - 2
LOT Polish - 1
United - 5

This adds to 27.  Add the 11 delivered so far and you're at 38.  I expect that JAL should get at least 4 more and ANA should get 6 more before the end of the year.  That is 48 total deliveries.  My target for Boeing is 50.  Clearly with Air India expecting to take delivery starting this month we can see a big 2nd half from the 787 in terms of deliveries of the airplane to customers.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 2

More 737 MAX activity from Boeing but Airbus and Cathay Pacific make a little noise as well today.For all the hype surroundng "Boeing's Show", it really is a slow.

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU
Cathay Pacific - 10 x A350-1000 - MoU (converts 16 A350-900 order to A350-1000)
Drukair - 1 x A319 - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm
ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 - MoU
GECAS - 75 x 737 MAX 8, 25 x 737-800 - MoU

Bombardier
AirBaltic - 10 x CS300 - LoI

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Farnborough 2012 - Day 1

First day at Farnborough was Boeing's day and already there are rumors that there will be more 737 MAX deals with GECAS and United Airlines on the order of 75 and 100 each respectively.  The United order announcement is rumored to take place in Chicago which is where the corporate headquarters for both UAL and Boeing are located.  The GECAS order might be announced tomorrow. Here's a review of the order action at Farnborough 2012:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm

Updated 787 Production - 7/5/2012

The 787 production and disposition list has been updated to reflect the firing order for airplanes 81 to 90.  This lot of aircraft should be in production through mid-October 2012.  There are no new customers on the list but LOT Polish Airlines will receive its 3rd, 4th and 5th 787s from a total order of 8.  All these aircraft should be delivered, assuming no issues with production or the aircraft, by the end of this year.  The airlines that are to get aircraft from this lot of 10 are Hainan (2), ANA, JAL (2), LOT Polish (3), Qatar, and Air India.  Airplane 90 also marks a start of the block point of 787s where Boeing is to get the 787-8 down to the promised contractual weight when the program was launched in 2004.  The airline that will receive the first aircraft in this block point is Air India, surprisingly.  Please note that this firing order can change between know and the time that these airplanes start final assembly perhaps even after they've been rolled out of the final assembly hall.

787 Movement - July 3, 2012

There was quite a bit of moving around for Boeing's 787 inventory both in Everett and in Charleston. To start, Boeing confirmed that the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery were flown to Charleston to free up space on the Everett ramp.  Boeing said that it was a good move as several of the first few Charleston built planes are also destined for Air India.  Speaking of Air India 787 deliveries, there is word that the Ministry of Aviation won't sign off on the deal until next week because one of the ministers is on vacation.  Apparently in India business stops if someone is out on vacation.  IF, and that is really big IF, everything get signed off by the government of India deliveries conceivably can start towards the end of next week or early the following week.  There is a great article in the Charleston Regional Business Journal about Air India, the 787s and the attitude behind the whole fiasco but it sums up the attitude of the GoI and Air India quite nicely.

Boeing flew ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Boeing Field on Sunday in preparation for it to fly to Farnborough on Thursday.  Word is delivery to Qatar Airways should occur the week of July 16th IF (another big IF) there are no contractual hang ups.  A date has not been set and given the unpredictability of Qatar CEO Akbar Al Baker this rough time frame could slide.  Qatar's pilots still has to fly the aircraft I believe and this probably won't occur until after the Farnborough Air Show.  The airplane is flying July 9th to July 11th and I anticipate that it should return to Everett on July 11th.  When it returns to Everett this plane will be carrying two Qatar Airways pilots who might conduct customer flights and may eventually ferry the aircraft back to Doha when delivery is complete.  It is conceivable that Qatar could take delivery before Air India making this carrier the third airline to fly the 787 and the first one outside of Japan.

ANA took delivery of its 10th 787 on Sunday, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) then flew to Haneda International Airport last night.  ANA should be taking delivery of 4 to 5 more 787s by the end of August given the number that is in pre-flight.  Another ANA 787 will be pushed out the door tonight.  This airplanes is ZA119 (LN 69) will go to the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before going off to paint.

On the production front, Boeing pulled out ZA238 (LN 54) from building 88-03 in Charleston.  It is now on the flight line along with the other three Air India bound 787s. No word on if assembly has started on ZA431 (LN 76) for Hainan Airlines but I'm assuming for now that parts are still arriving. At Everett, Boeing has moved another 787 inside the EMC. ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) for Qatar Airways is now inside where it is continuing with change incorporation along with units for China Southern, United and JAL.  One or both of the China Southern airplanes should be out by August where it will go through painting and go into pre-flight.  This airline can possibly take delivery in September.

I have updated the tables below to reflect the current disposition of all the 787s that are in production or have been delivered.  Have a safe and Happy 4th of July!

Air India 787s on the move, Qatar 787 readied for Farnborough

Over the weekend Matt Cawby spotted the two Air India 787s that are ready for delivery sporting temporary US registration numbers on their fuselages.  This lead to speculation that the aircraft are to be flown out of Everett for possible storage, maybe in the desert.  Well the speculation was mostly correct.  The two 787s, ZA233 (LN 29,VT-AND) and ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) will be flown to Charleston to join sistership ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) on Monday, July 2nd.  Now the reason why it is being flown to Charleston isn't officially disclosed but the obvious reason could be for a triple delivery to AIr India and that still could happen but sources have told me that delivery to Air India is still listed as "TBD".   It is conceivable that these three airframes for Air India will be delivered from Charleston but another reason is that if Boeing is able to turn the keys over to the carrier between July 4th and July 8th, they will be unable to fly away during those dates as the runway at Everett will be closed.  This way Boeing leaves open the delivery and fly away during those dates by transferring these airplanes to Charelston.  The most likely reason is to free up space in Everett for other aircraft that are ready to be delivered.  Already ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) is already out of paint and need to prepare for pre-flight. ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is currently sitting in the fuel dock sans its rudder (don't know why) this aircraft is projected to be delivered at the end of July but it still needs to have its rudder reattached and go through pre-flight.  The pace of aircraft reaching the flightline ready for pre-flight is quickening and Boeing needs the space.  Given the uncertainty of the Air India deliveries this is a good move to keep the pace at Everett moving.  ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways is already at Boeing Field to prepare to fly to Farnborough later this week this airplane is still projected to deliver later this month.  Another flightline stall should open up tomorrow as ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) will deliver today, as far as I know, and should fly away tomorrow July 2.  ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) should deliver around July 11th with fly away on July 12th.

On Tuesday another line move should occur which will push out ZA119 (LN 69) for ANA and will mark the start of final assembly for ZA537 (LN 74) for LAN.