787 Flying During Farnborough

This morning Boeing announed that the ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways will be flying demonstration flight from July 9 to July 11th during the Farnborough Airshow.  This is the first time Boeing will be flying acommercial demonstration at an air show in over 25 years. Rumor has it that Boeing is doing this at the behest of Qatar Airways chairman Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) but that is not confirmed.  According to Randy's Blog, ZA461 should arrive at Farnborough on Thursday July 5th.  It will fly a validation flight the next day and fly demonstration flights on 4pm each day from July 9th to July 11th.  The demo flight is 7 minutes long and will be flown by Boeing pilots.

The aircraft will have to leave from Boeing Field, according to Matt Cawby, the runway at Everett will be closed from July 4th to July 8th re-opening on July 9th.  This also means no B-1 787 flights or delivery fly aways during this period.  If there are to be any B-1 flights prior to the runway shut down, it would most likely be ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) as this one seems closest to conducting any B-1 flights.  It is also possible that the two Air India 787s at Everett can be delivered before the runway closure but again this is all dependent on the Indian Government approving the deal between Air India and Boeing.  I have no word on when this may happen.

In the meantime, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) was supposed to have been delivered yesterday but appeared to have been taken on another test flight yesterday evening and is know expected to be delivered on July 1st and expected fly away on July 2nd.

787 Half Time Report

So now that we're coming to half way through the year I thought to do a brief review and then look forward to the second half of the 787 ball game.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th.  When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.

As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink. 

So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August.  This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.

Can Boeing deliver 10 next month?  It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line.  Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests.  They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line,  currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3.  Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.

Looking forward.

The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October.  Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern.  I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year.  That is 32 airplanes.  Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36.  There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery.  Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year.  This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month.  The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in.  Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.

More 787s coming out the door - June 22, 2012

Boeing is really on a roll in terms of getting 787s outthe door and prepared for delivery.  Tonight ZA536 (LN 68) will pushed out the door and parked on the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before moving on to the paint hangar and then on to pre-flight.  This airplane will be the first one for LAN.   I'm not sure if the other airframes on the apron will be moved to make room for the third airplane.  Additionally, ZA262 (LN 49) for Ethiopian was moved from the Everett Modification Center to the Fuel Dock.  I suspect it will go through paint and fueling tests before moving out to flightline for pre-flight in the next couple of weeks.  Word is that we should see the first flight of Qatar's first 787, ZA461 (LN 59, A7-BCB) this Sunday but that is the rumor for now and nothing concrete as of yet.  Lastly, United Airlines confirmed that it will be receiving its first 787 in September.  More than likely this will be ZA288 (LN 53, N27904).  This aircraft is still in the EMC being prepared for delivery but recently had its GEnx engines attached.

June 20, 2012 - Busy day for 787 program

There was a lot going on today with the 787 program.  First, Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) made an appearance on the flightline fully painted.  Matt Cawby got a very nice picture of it. This aircraft was parked in stall 107 which had been occupied by ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) for Air India.  This air frame was moved to the Fuel Dock until spot opens up when one of the ANA 787s fly away in the next two days.  Speaking of ANA 787s, they're been newsworthy.  First it was revealed to Reuters that the dimmable windows are not dark enough.  Why they're raising this question now instead of when PPG was developing them for the 787 is not known.  Apparently the shades are letting in enough light so that the customers can't sleep.  I don't know if there is a remedy to ANA's concerns but the aircraft nonetheless is performing extremely well in passenger service.  Japan Airlines has not complained about the windows and they're flying the aircraft on several long haul routes. However the issue will not slow down deliveries of the aircraft to ANA.  Today ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) took its B-1 flight in preparation to being delivered. I expect that this airplane should deliver next month.  Finally it is still expected that ANA will take delivery of ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) today though I am awaiting confirmation of this.

Two ANA 787s to deliver later this week

I just got word that ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow to ANA with fly away on the 21st (Thursday).  ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A) will deliver on the 21st and fly away on the 22nd (Friday).

787 Deliveries to take place soon

According to a post on a forum on Airliners.net, ANA should be taking delivery of 2 787s. ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow June 18 and ZA507 (LN48, JA810A) will deliver on June 19.  Additionally ZA509 (LN56, JA812A) will deliver on June 28th according to the post.  In terms of the Air India deliveries, that is still to be determined.  It seems that the GoI has not given the go ahead as of yet on the deal between Air India and Boeing.  If approval comes this week then I can see deliveries starting very soon thereafter.

July deliveries

The post also said that ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) and ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) will be delivered around July 31 and July 11 respectively and it may be possible for ZA135 (LN 66, JA813A) to be delivered during this month as well, this aircraft is still undergoing final assembly tasks on the apron.  Qatar Airways, it seems may not take delivery this month but that Boeing will conduct its first flight and then send it to Farnborough under Boeing control and ownership after which Boeing will complete all necessary pre-delivery operations prior to handing the aircraft over to Qatar Airways.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see further handover of aircraft to JAL and Air India in July.

Finally, I expect a line move late this week, around Friday the 22nd which should push out the first 787 for LAN, this is ZA536 (LN 68).

Three paint hangars, three 787s

I got some more information last night and while I added it to my previous post I've also decided to start a new post as I see this as significant.  Everett has three paint hangars and by tonight those three paint hangars will be filled with 787s that will be delivered by the end of July.  They are:
45-01 - ZA118 (LN 67) this will be in there tonight
45-03 - ZA100 (LN 7) first 787 to enter production
45-04 - ZA461 (LN 58) first 787 for Qatar Airways

In my mind ZA100 is a milestone.  This 787 entered final assembly about 3 years ago but has mostly sat in storage after being rolled out in the fall of 2009 waiting for change incorporation after flight testing was completed.  Because it was the first to enter assembly it had the most work that needed to be done though most of the last three years it was sitting in storage.

There is a line move tonight with ZA118 leaving position 4 in 40-26 and going straight to the paint hangar.  Over the next week we should see these three 787s emerging from the paint hangar and go directly to the flightline for preflight testing and work.  With the exception of ZA461, these plans should deliver in July.

June 12, 2012 787 delivery watch and other 787 news

UPDATE (6/12/12, 8:45 PM):  There will be a line move tomorrow but on top of that there was some movement of several Qatar Airways 787s.

ZA118 (LN 67) will go straight from 40-26 to the paint hangar 45-01.  Sounds like there aren't very many jobs to do on this one and can go to preflight. 
ZA461 (LN 58) has gone from Stall 106 to the paint hangar 45-04 sounds like we'll finally see a 787 in Qatar Airways color scheme.
ZA460 (LN 57) went to EMC position Z
ZA511 (LN 63) went to EMC position 3
ZA463 (LN 64) went to EMC position E replacing ZA100 (LN 7)
ZA100 (LN 7) went to paint hangar 45-03 for painting seems this one is done

Lots of news out today.

ZA509 flies

ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) flew for the first time this afternoon. This is the first 787 to conduct a a B-1 flight in over three weeks.  Boeing had filed numerous flight plans over the past few days but it finally took off this afternoon. If there aren't too many issues then it should deliver by the end of this month.  it is still unknown why it has taken so long between B-1 flights for the787 and why ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) and ZA509 (LN 48, JA810A) have not been delivered to ANA.  ZA506 did have an experimental sticker and an N registration on it but those have since been removed.  I can speculate that this airplane conducted some certification activities, possibly connected to software upgrades, and Boeing is waiting on final FAA approval before signing the airplanes over to ANA.  The fact that ZA509 finally took flight might be an encouraging sign that is approval is close or already in hand.

United to take 787 delivery in September

Jeff Smisek, the CEO of United said today at a shareholder meeting that the airline will take delivery of the first Dreamliner in September and will have 5 to 6 787s by the end of the year.  Currently there are 5 787s that are assembled and two of the five that are currently undergoing change incorporation.  ZA290 (LN 77) will be assembled in Everett and I expect that this airplane will enter final assembly sometime around early September.  Boeing can certainly deliver all these 787s to UAL by the end of the year as they probably don't have much change incorporation to be done.

Air India

The word is the the GoI will take up the compensation agreement between Air India and Boeing this week and that first delivery should take place next week.  Though this is India and they do love their little drama so I'm not going to believe it until all three 787s, ZA 233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) and ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI), are all on Indian soil.

Qatar Airways

Of all the 787 that would make a lot of noise I was expecting Qatar Airways, not Air India but some how Air India was able to supplant Akbar Al-Baker as the most annoying (and most dislike) customer in the airline industry.  I know I'm comparing an individual with a company but you get the idea.  Anyway we've heard not a peep from one of the most vocal airlines in the world.  I did get word that delivery of Qatar's first 787 should take place by the end of the month.  Further I got confirmation of the following piece of information that was in a Qatar Airways press release:
The Doha-based airline is preparing to take delivery of five 787s during 2012, with the first set to arrive in Qatar this summer.

The carrier will initially operate the aircraft on intra-Gulf routes to provide flight crew with training hours before Qatar Airways’ 787 is scheduled to appear on static display at the Farnborough Air Show in July and then enter its first long-haul commercial service on the Doha – London Heathrow route.

If so then Boeing will need to deliver Qatar's first 787 by the end of this month if it is to conduct inter-Gulf flights for a week and then go to Farnborough for the air show which starts July 9th.  It is entirely possible that the airline can take delivery by the end of the first week of July and then fly it to Farnborough for the show.  I say this because as of today the plane is still in a flightline stall and there is still work being done on the aircraft and has yet to run its engines for the first time let alone make a B-1 flight.  If ZA461 (LN 58) isn't on the ramp at Farnborough a 777-300ER would be in its place) then you can expect U-Turn Al to be back to his normally bombastic self thus regaining his title over Air India.

Production

I expect there to be another line move if not today then by Thursday at the latest.  LN 67 should be pushed out and should be in a similar condition as LN 66.  This airplane is also for ANA and should most certainly deliver next month.  Related to production, Flightglobal writer Steven Trimble came out with an article saying that Boeing is pushing the activation of the surge line to the end of September, ostensibly the start of the 4th quarter.  The reason being is that Boeing wants to use the line for chane incorporation for the 39 787s that are out on the Everett ramp.  According to Trimble the line is completely ready to support production of the 787s but Boeing wants to use it for change incorporation during the summer.  This may make sense as it have two positive effects...1) it allows Boeing to work through the 39 planes that are still need to be finished that more faster thus reducing inventory on the balance sheet and boking revenues on the income statement and 2) it allows Boeing to refine and double check it plans for the surge line and for the rate increase to 5/month that will come this fall.  Boeing and its supplies cannot fail on this rate increase and must make sure that it occurs seamlessly across the supply chain.  I wouldn't be surprised if some of the 787s that are currently in final assembly are moved to the surge line to finish off some of the minor assembly tasks.

787-9/787-10

Jim Albaugh speaking yesterday said that the 787-10 would be launched before a 777X as it is the derivative that is the most further along.  According to Scott Hamilton who cites a Bernstein Research note, the 787-10 launch is almost a certainty.  The 787-9 development is proceeding well and will go into production on the surge line next year. 

The same Bernstein Research note also raised Boeing outlook based on improvement in the 787 program and in particular the production.  It cites supplier performance as a huge factor in the improved production outlook.  See the Reuters article that talks about the Bernstein note here.

Performance of ANA 787s

Word is coming out that the performance of ANA 787s on long haul flights is 21% better compared to the 767-300ER that they're replacing.  This is compared to the 20% that Boeing was aiming for when they started marketing the 787 to the airlines. These are the overweight aircraft that are equipped with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines that have SFC bought to within 1% of Rolls Royce's performance guarantees.  One can only imagine what the performance will be like on the later 787s which are delivered at the promise weight (Boeing is getting there) along with the improved engines coming out from both GE (PIP2) and Rolls Royce (package "C").

Boeing's 787 inventory plan

Boeing has about $24bn in 787 inventory sitting around Paine Field in Everett waiting to be delivered.  They have 9 planes in preflight 5 for ANA , 3 for AIr India and 1 for Qatar Airways. After that they have 39 more that have to go through change incorporation. Looking at what has been delivered, what is going to be delivered and the air frames that are undergoing change incorporation, one thing stands out clearly:  Boeing will prepare and deliver the later built air frames (airplanes 31 to 65) as they require significantly less rework compared to airplanes 4 to 30.  Boeing will continue to focus on getting airplanes 31 to 65 out the door with change incorporation along side the airplanes that don't need to go through the costly change incorporation.  Many of these late planes don't need much re-work at all thus allowing Boeing to get them to customers faster and book the revenues sooner.

The numbers tell the story. 

Of the 11 airplanes that have been delivered 4 are LN 30 and below (36% of the deliveries so far). 

Of the airplanes that are currently ready to be delivered (the 9 in preflight) there is one that is coming from the batch of LN 30 and below (11% of the 9 airplanes that I categorize as preflight). 

Of the airplanes that are currently in the change incorporation process (in building 40-24, EMC or other buildings for re-work purposes) there are 5 out of 11 airplanes which I categorized as actively going through change incorporation (as opposed to storage/change incorporation Dreamliners which are mainly being stored).  That is about 45% of the 11 airplanes being worked on.

Of the 28 airplanes that I count as being stored (not actively being worked on), 16 are from LN 4 to LN 30 or about 57%.  I expect that by the end of this year most of the airplanes from LN 31 to LN 65 will be in customer hands. 

As Boeing works through the late builds they'll start to switch to re-working the early build 787s and prepare them for delivery but in doing so, these airplanes will spend more time in the EMC thus slowing down deliveries from the change incorporation batch of 787 in 2013-2014.  I think it is reasonable to assume that Boeing cost for these airplanes are going to shoot through the roof owing to the amount of work that has to be done on these airplanes.
In other news, Boeing is finally getting some of the preflight 787s back into the air.  ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A) should be flying today as will ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A) which will be making its first flight.  It does seem that deliveries are getting close but I have yet to get any information about this.
Boeing is now trying to finalize an order for 5 787s with Batik Air (owned by Lion Air).  No word on when this will be finalized or which version of the 787 they're buying.

The mystery of 787 number 66 part deux

Well there seems to be a little bit more clarity on ZA135 (LN 66) and whether this airplane is in for storage or if it is being prepared for delivery.  Yesterday the a picture by Moonm showed ZA135 (LN 66) with engines hanging but with all the windows and doors sealed.  There was considerable debate what this meant and if it was a sign that this airplane still had to go through change incorporation.  Today local Everett photographer Matt Cawby flew around Paine Field and some of his photos showed ZA135 being worked on outside building 40-51.  Of particular interest is that this airplane now has some of the window and door seals removed.  The window masking is still on (presumably in preparation for painting).  This is a good sign that Boeing intends to move this airplane into the standard pre-delivery work and test flights.  Another less obvious sign is that Boeing moved one 787 from one flightline stall to another. ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern went from stall 102 to stall 201.  Stalls 101 to 109 have been used by Boeing to prepare 787s for delivery. It's conceivable that stall 102 is where ZA135 will be parked as it is prepared for delivery.  Lastly, Matt's photos shows the wheels of the airplane uncovered as opposed to those that are being stored around Paine Field.  This indicates that Boeing will be moving the airplane from its current spot soon.  Where to is another question. The next movement of this airplane will give a more clear indication of the future of this airplane and whether Boeing has indeed turned the corner in 787 production.  It is very, very close.

Air India and Boeing come to an agreement

Media outlets in of India are reporting that Air India and Boeing have come to an agreement over the 787 delays.  Those reports did not specify the form of compensation though it may involve Air India paying less for each 787 as they are delivered.  The agreement has to be approved by the Government of India so that is a reason to be cautious of this agreement.  It was the Government of India that insisted on more compensation than had been previously agreed with Boeing.

If approval is given, Air India will take delivery of three 787s: ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND), ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH), ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) all in June.  ZA233 is already to go now and I suspect that ZA236 is not that far behind.  ZA237 is being painted and has still go through a few more Boeing test flights as well customer tests before it is delivered by the end of this month.

If the approval is given, Boeing can potentially deliver 8 787s this month.  4 787s to ANA that are on the flightline right now: ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A), ZA507 (LN 48, JA810A), ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A), ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A).  Additionally Boeing can deliver ZA461 (LN 58) to Qatar Airways this month.  This would make 8 airplanes including the three for Air India.  ZA135 (LN 66) is an unknown but should be ready for delivery if not by the end of June then certainly in early to mid July.

The mystery of 787 number 66

Well a partial mystery.  In an earlier post, I revealed that ZA135 (LN 66) was pulled out of the final assembly line in building 40-26  and out onto the apron in front of Boeing's final assembly hall.  At the time I wasn't sure if it had engines attached or if the airplane was buttoned up.  Thanks to a spotter in the Everett area the airplane is buttoned up (windows and doors are covered up and sealed). However it does have the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 hanging from the wings. Boeing has not equipped 787s with engines until they are ready to be delivered.  However, the airplanes are sealed if they are going to spend time in storage until it has to go through change incorporation.  It seems that there is a mixed message with this airplane.  Perhaps it is ready to go straight to the flightline for the standard pre-delivery work including painting but Boeing needs to deliver the other 787s that are on the verge of delivery.  There are 4 787s that are being readied for delivery to ANA along with one for Qatar and two for Air India.  Perhaps there is a small amount of work that needs to be done on this airplane and then it can go straight into pre-delivery?  I suspect the answer is something in between.  Where this airplane goes will be the next clue as to the state of the 787 program.  If there is still work to be done and it has an extended stay on the Boeing tarmac, that is not good at least in the short term and the expectation that Boeing has turned the corner on the program would be severely damaged.  If however the plane is able to take flight before the end of the month then it's not an issue and Boeing would have truly turned a corner.

Another 787 pushed out, airplane 66 out the door

Boeing has pushed out ZA135 (LN 66) from build 40-26.  This is supposed to be the first airplane that goes from assembly line to flightline.  Currently it is parked on the 40-51 (building) apron west.  I don't know if it has its engines attached or not but hopefully a spotter would be able to get photos of it to determine if it engineless and buttoned up like other 787s that have to go through the change incorporation process or if the windows and doors are uncovered and the airplane has its engines hanging off the wings.  If, as expected, this airplane has its engines then it should be ready to go to paint/aqueous wash followed by ground and flight testing prior to delivery to ANA.
We have to wait and see but this information is current as of today. 

Additionally there are 3 787s in 40-24 undergoing change incorporation.  These airplanes are ZA175 (LN 20) for JAL, ZA261 (LN 44) for Ethiopian and ZA287 (LN 52) for United.

No word on upcoming deliveries in June as of yet.

Boeing asked to pay for Air India's mistakes and ineptitude

How much does Air India want Boeing to pay for AI's mismanagement and incompetence...$1,000,000,000.00.  That amount is equal to over $37mm per 787.  Now Boeing does owe Air India compensation for the delays but certainly $37mm is waaaay over the top.  What Air India wants Boeing to do is pay for years of bureaucratic mistakes and idiocy at the air line.  They couldn't even effectively merge Air India and Indian Airlines and the result is a huge strike that is financially hurting the airline.  Now Air India want Boeing to pay for the financial costs of the strike.

Air India, of course, has no where to go and at the end they will have to blink.  Boeing can easily deliver these airplanes to another customer though Boeing would have to hold on the the 787s while the BFE (buyer furnished equipment) is delivered to them for installation.  Air India would be without the fuel efficient aircraft it so desperately needs to remain competitive with Emirates, Qatar Airways and other international carriers and it will further hurt their bottom line.  I certainly hope that Boeing doesn't blink.  They shouldn't be held hostage due to Air India's extremely poor decision making.  Here's an Op-Ed from the New York Times regarding the Air India situation:

NYT:  Air India’s Boeing Showdown Could Be a Mistake

In other news, I got wind of the 787s that are in the EMC at Everett.  They are:

Bay C, ZA262, LN49, Ethiopian
Bay B, ZA382, LN43  China Southern
Bay A, ZA380, LN34, China Southern
Bay D, ZA287, LN52, United
Bay AW, ZA178, LN27, JAL

Quite interesting that ZA100, LN 7 is not there anymore.  I don't know where it is hiding but it was at EMC for a good long while.  I have to wonder if it's close to being delivered? Well we all know that there weren't any 787 deliveries in May but it could be setting up for a big June for the 787 program.  There should be 4 787s for ANA and 1 for Qatar that would be delivered this month.  If Boeing and Air India come to an agreement then that is another 3.  I also expect that the first 787 to go from assembly line to flightline would be pulled out in a couple weeks.  ZA135 (LN66) could sneak in under the wire to be delivered to ANA in June though the chances are remote but it would certainly be delivered by end of July.