Saturday, November 14, 2015

787 November 2015 Mid-Month Review



Midway through November and Boeing is on track to deliver 14 787s this month with clear delivery dates for the remaining 787s that have yet to be delivered.

Boeing delivered 7 aircraft (4 787-8 and 3 787-9) to customers including KLM's first 787-9 leased from AerCap. Through November 15th, Boeing has delivered 119 787 year to date and total program deliveries stand at 347 aircraft.  A planned delivery on November 16th will take Boeing to 120 deliveries in 2015 meeting their 787 delivery guidance number for the year of at least 120 787 deliveries.  It appears that Boeing is on track to deliver at least 134 787s this year.

Seven Dreamliners are in line to be delivered in the next 15-16 days.  These include 2 787-9 each for British Airways and United Airlines; 1 787-8 each for Oman Air and Aeromexico (leased from CIT Leasing) and finally a 787-9 for ANA.  Except for the CIT (going to Aeromexico) 787-8 all the other aircraft still have to conduct a C-1 flight most of which should be done by the November 20th.

On the production front, things looks to be proceeding normally as Boeing has rolled out 5 787s and started assembly on 5 others thus maintaining the 10/month production rate.  Later this week Boeing should roll out ZB561 (LN371, C-FNOI) a 787-9 for Air Canada. This is the penultimate 787 that will be assembled on the surge line in 40-24. The last 787, a 787-9 for KLM will be rolled out next month for delivery around late February.

Later this month I'll be posting the annual 787 look ahead for 2016 discussing the production and delivery expectation for the 787 program.

787 Full Production Table

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Boeing posts new 787 order for El Al and a surprise with the Aeroflot 787 order

This morning updated it's weekly net orders and El Al showed up as mentioned in Boeing's press release last week. El Al is in for 3 787-9s and will firm the remaining 6 orders over time.

Also an extremely interesting development with the Aeroflot order. The airline has been on the record as saying they intend to cancel the order for 22 787-8s.  

With the monthly update to the 787 order book now out, it seems that Aeroflot converted 4 787-8 into 787-9!  Not something you'd expect from an airline that so publicly announced their intention to cancel a couple times since the summer.  Seems there's more to this drama than meets the eye.

787 Full Production Table

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Qatar to exercise 787 options?

Boeing Photo
Boeing delivered two 787-8 Dreamliners to Qatar Airways today in Everett in a ceremony attended by Akbar (U-Turn Al) Al-Baker.  Qatar Airways will have their full complement of 30 787-8s by the end of next year but they also have 30 options still waiting to be exercised.

Al Baker said that Qatar Airways will look to firm the 30 options that they hold for the 787 though no timing was given.

The interesting question is now which model and when will they be delivered.  As some readers may recall, Qatar Airways staff had a tense relationship with Boeing workers at Charleston where Boeing had decided that Qatar's 787-8s would be built. Thus if they selects the 787-10 can Qatar's staff work with the Boeing Charleston staff? Certainly if Qatar firms up the 787-9 they can be built in Everett but at the end of the day Qatar will choose the right mix of 787s regardless of where they're built.

As to when they firm it up, well I had expected that to happen at the Paris Air Show this pat summer.  I also had expectation of an announcement today (I'm sure Boeing and Al-Baker did talk about firming the options behind close doors) but I think it may happen late next month if it is to happen before year end but quite possibly we can see the order at next week's Dubai Air Show.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Boeing delivers 11 787s in October, preparing for a large delivery month in November.



Boeing had a good delivery month in October by handing over the keys to 11 Dreamliners including the first 787 to Oman Air and finally delivering the 2 787-8 to Kenya Airways and completing the East African airlines' order.  With the 11 aircraft handed over in October, Boeing has now delivered 112 787s thus far in 2015 (to put in perspective, Boeing delivered 114 787s in 2014) and has made 340 deliveries since September 2011.

Efficiency of the Boeing 787 assembly lines was mixed. Last month deliveries of 787 built in North Charleston stood at 2.  It was made up this month with 7 Charleston built 787s being handed over.  Everett didn't distinguish it self in October however.  After delivering 9 787s in September, the Everett plant delivered only 4 in October.  The October efficiency ratio for Everett stands at 1.5 which is much too high.  The efficiency ratio for Charleston was 0.71 which was helped by the two Kenya Airways deliveries.  Overall the efficiency of both 787 assembly locations was 1 in October (11 airplane rolled to to 11 airplanes delivered).  For the year Everett's efficiency is 0.90 while Charleston's efficiency is 1.03.  For the year the 787 program efficiency is and excellent 0.94 (105 airplanes rolled out to 112 airplanes delivered).

Looking ahead to November.  Boeing has 14 787s that are projected to be delivered in the coming month.  Of the 14 being readied for delivery, 4 are all set to be delivered, 5 others have to fly their customer acceptance flights and 5 more need to fly their B-1 flights.  All the B-1s should be completed by November 11th weather dependent thus leaving enough room for all the customer flights to take place in time for deliveries to be made by November 30th.

Deliveries in November are projected to be made to:

AerCap (lsd to KLM) : 1 x 787-9
Air Canada - 1 x 787-9
American Airlines : 1 x 787-8
ANA - 1 x 787-8, 1 x 787-9
British Airways - 2 x 787-9
CIT (lsd to Aeromexico) - 1 x 787-8
Oman Air - 1 x 787-8
Qatar Airways - 2 x 787-8
United Airlines - 3 x 787-9

Again there may be extenuating circumstances whereby some of these deliveries may not be made in November.

October also proved to be fruitful for 787 orders.  QANTAS' 787-9 order was finally booked as they exercised 5 787-9 options that were due to expire this year as well as converted 3 787-8 for Jetstar to 787-9 for the mainline operation.  Boeing also booked 19 787-9 orders from Norwegian and announced that they had come to an agreement on 3 787 firm for El Al (out of an order of 9 that the airline intends to place with Boeing.  The type of 787 that was firmed up has not been disclosed nor is the timeline for firming the other 6 787s.  The remainder of El Al's 787 order (6 aircraft) will be taken through leases.  El Al has indicated that they will be taking a mix of 787-8 and 787-9 and the 10 options they have is rumored to be for the 787-10.

Yet to come if firming up of the 24 787-10 for Eva Air as well as firming the Garuda Indonesia order for 30 787-9s.  If all these orders are firmed before the end of the year plus if Boeing is able to secure another 30+ 787 orders that are firm in 2015 then they can achieve a book-to-bill of 1 on the 787 program for 2015.  Currently Boeing net 787 order book for 2015 stands at 50.

787 Full Production Table