On the heels of QANTAS' return to the 787 order book, I thought it
would be good to review other potential 787 orders that may firm up by year
end. This is by no means an exhaustive list but the more visible ones.
QANTAS – They still have 15 options (delivery slots with a
delivery date) and 30 purchase rights (no specific delivery date). QANTAS exercised the 5 options for delivery
from 2017 to 2019. The remaining 15
options are for 787-9 delivery slots from 2020 to 2021 while the 30 rights are
for delivery from 2021 to 2025. As I had
mentioned previously, I expect that QANTAS will take a piecemeal approach to
exercising these options and rights as they come due depending on business
conditions and new route development plans.
Emirates - This order has been rumored to
be going Boeing's way though Tim Clark has poured called water on these rumors
by saying that he 787 doesn't have enough thrust to operate without payload
restriction in Dubai hot and arrid environment. Still I do expect that
Emirates will pull the trigger on an order comprising of 787-9 and 787-10 at
the Dubai Air Show during November 8th through 12th.
Qatar Airways - Qatar has taken delivery
of 22 out of 30 787-8s that they had ordered. They will receive the
remainder of their order of 8 aircraft by the end of the second quarter of
2016. They still do have 30 options left and I do believe that they will
exercise them also for a combination of 787-9s. I'm not sure if they will
be in for the 787-10 given Qatar's 787-8 experience with the Charleston team
and the 787-10 will be built exclusively in Charleston.
El-Al - The Israeli airline announced that
they will be taking on 15 787-8 and 787-9 through a mixture of direct purchases
from Boeing as well as leases. They also will have 13 787 options for
future growth. This order should be firmed up in the next few weeks.
Hainan Airlines – They have said that they are committing to
ordering 30 787-9s with deliveries starting in 2021 but this order has yet to
appear on Boeing’s order and delivery web site. They may be the unidentified
customer that had ordered 30 787-9 in two separate tranches (24 and 6). Interestingly, there are 2 787-9 on the 787
firing order that are being leased to Hainan.
These airplanes should be delivered next year.
Phillipine Airlines – They’re looking to increase their widebody
fleet and are looking at an order of 6 A350s or 787s. Word is that the A350 has the edge in this
contest.
Turkish Airlines – Turkish Airlines has been saying that they are
evaluating the 787 for years but have yet to announce a decision. The airline has bought form both Boeing and
Airbus so this order, when it does come, can go either way.
If any readers have any other information on potential orders that
are coming up or that would be announced, please feel free to add it to the
comments section.
Production and Deliveries
As we’re getting closer to the end of August, the delivery
schedule for the remainder of the month is becoming clearer. Boeing has delivered 6 787s thus far but
expects to deliver 8 aircraft in the next one week. Four of these airplanes still have yet to
conduct their C-1 customer acceptance flights which all should be flown
tomorrow, August 25th.
LN126-Del-8/25
LN329-Del-8/26
LN332-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN333-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN334-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN335-C1-8/25, Del-8/28
LN336-Del-8/28
LN329-Del-8/26
LN332-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN333-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN334-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN335-C1-8/25, Del-8/28
LN336-Del-8/28
LN341-Del-8/28
At the end of the month I expect that Boeing would have delivered 14
787; 6 787-8 and 8 787-9, 2 787-8 for American, 2 787-9 each for Vietnam
Airlines and AerCap (leased to LAN), 1 787-9 each for Air Canada, Air New
Zealand, ANA, and United. Finally 1
787-8 will be delivered each to AerCap (leased to Thai), BBJ (Sultan of
Brunei), Scoot, and CIT (leased to Aeromexico).
If the remaining 8 deliveries occur then Boeing would have 14 for
August, 90 for 2015 and 318 program deliveries.
That would mean that Boeing would need to deliver an average of 7.5 787s
per month for the remainder of the year in order to meet its 2015 delivery goal
of at least 120 787s. I believe they can
deliver 135 by year end surpassing their goal by 12.5%.
787 Full Production Table
Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries
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