Boeing exceeds 2015 787 delivery forecast by delivering 14 787 in November. Aims for 9 to 10 deliveries in December

November 2015 results

Boeing had a pretty good delivery month for the 787 as they delivered 14 aircraft: 6 787-8 and 8 787-9.  As of November 30th, Boeing has delivered 126 787s: 68 787-8 and 58 787-9s thus exceeding its 787 delivery guidance for 2015.  Total program deliveries stand at 354 as of November 30, 2015. The 14 787s delivered included customers such as KLM's 1st 787-9, 2 airplanes each for Qatar (787-8) and British Airways (787-9) and 3 787-9s for United.

November also saw the firming of Eva Airway's order for 18 787-10 (+6 options) which is a major boost for that model.  Thus far Boeing has booked 97 gross orders for the 787, 71 net orders. Ethiopian also has said that they have ordered 2 787-9s for 2017 delivery though those airplanes have not showed up on Boeing's order and delivery site.

787-10 Rendering Courtesy of The Boeing Company

Speaking of the 787-10, Boeing announce that they have completed the detailed design of the 787-10 which is a simple stretch of the 787-9.  The two aircraft will be 95% common thus making the aircraft a low risk proposition.  Expect final assembly to start in a years time followed by first flight in the late 1st quarter or early 2nd quarter of 2017 and delivery in 2018.  Boeing is expected to have 3 test airplanes all of which will be re-worked and delivered to customers in 2018.


December Delivery and Production

As Boeing heads into the last few weeks of 2015, it appears that they are aiming to get their remaining deliveries for the 787 completed by December 23rd.  According to the current delivery schedule, Boeing will deliver 7 787s (2 have already been delivered as of Dec. 11th) between Dec. 15th and Dec. 23.  Deliveries include 2 787-9 to Virgin as well as 787-9s to Vietnam Airlines, LAN, and Air Canada.  American and Scoot will each get one 787-8.  Boeing has already delivered a 787-8 to Avianca and a 787-9 to KLM.

Boeing has rolled out 116 787 though the end of November and started final assembly on 115 thus putting them on track to exceed the 10/month production rate.  Through Dec. 11th, Boeing has rolled out 121 787s and started final assembly on 119 Dreamliners.  I believe that we should see a tapering of production activities just prior to Christmas that will last until just after New Years.

Moving Re-Work and Change Incorporation Activities?

So according to sources but as of yet unconfirmed, Boeing will not be sending anymore 787 to the EMC to finish re-work prior to delivery.  That work will now take place in a couple different locations around Everett including 40-24 final assembly and the two spots behind the Everett Delivery Center (stalls 114 and 115).

The reason for this switch is to allow Boeing to concentrate on recovering the KC-46A tanker program which has fallen behind schedule much like the 787 had done during it's early gestation period.  It appears that Boeing will send KC-46As to the EMC to finish work and to try and recover the schedule will maintaining the test flight program which is currently on going.

Boeing has 11 early build 787-8s that need to be re-worked to certification standards.  8 of those 11 airplanes have customers assigned to them as of today but have delivery dates stretching out to 2018.

The relocation of the 787 re-work raises questions that I frankly don't have the answers to such as:
1) Will the relocation to 40-24 delay the start final assembly of early 777X or will it interfere in the reconfiguration work that will needed to be done in order to support early 777X final assembly?
2) What work will take place inside 40-24 as oppose to the outdoor stalls 114 and 115?
3) Will the relocation of these activities slow down the rate of completed re-worked 787s?
4) Will this change necessitate the continued use of the runway storage area at Paine Field?

Clearly since there is a plan for most of the remaining early build airplanes (we must not forget that 3 787-10 test airplanes will have to also be re-worked in 2018), Boeing is now planning to free up facilities for 777X and KC-46A work as work on the early build 787s will start to wind down.


787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries
2016 Projected Operator Deliveries
2016 Projected Customer Deliveries

Boeing 787 deliveries reach over 300; posts 12 deliveries in July

Over 4 years ago the 787 program was starting to emerge from most of the issues that had plagued the program since 2007. The first delivery was right around the corner to ANA. A little less than 4 years after program deliveries began, a time when Boeing was barely reducing 2 787s each month. Now Boeing has reached 300 deliveries coming from 2 different production facilities running at 10 per month for 2 different models of the 787.  Boeing announced #300 though Randy's Journal, but they won't name the carrier.  It's possible that it was ANA but that is speculation on my part.

Boeing's 300th 787 delivery come amidst a drive to increase the delivery rate in the third quarter.  I'm not sure which airline accepted delivery of number 300 but it is either ANA, United Airlines, Etihad or Air Canada.  Through July 31st Boeing has delivered 304 787s, 76 in 2015 and 12 in the month of July.  The aircraft maker also rolled out 11 787s from its factories; 7 from Everett (including the surge line in 40-24) and 4 from Charleston.  11 787s starting final assembly in July with 5 on the main Everett line in 40-26, 1 going to the surge line in 40-24 and 5 in Charleston.

Production efficiency improved this month, particularly at Everett as 9 Everett 787s were delivered vs, 7 rollouts.  Charleston was hurt because of the delayed delivery of the two Kenya Airways jets.  Their efficiency number was not as good given the 3 deliveries vs. 4 roll outs.  Overall the 787 efficiency was .92 a good number but could have been better if Kenya was ready to take its 2 remaining 787s.

July deliveries would have been higher but for Kenya Airways and PrivatAir deferring the delivery of  3 787-8 which are ready to be handed over.  PrivatAir's delivery now looks to be in August and the two Kenya Airways may be handed over in September.

Looking forward, Boeing is planning for 15 deliveries including the PrivatAir delivery.  6 airplanes slated for August delivery have yet to take their B-1 flights including 2 787s at Charleston.  Only 4 are ready for the August delivery but that will, of course, change over the next couple of weeks.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 July 2015 Mid Month Update

Now that the second half of the year is underway, we should expect to see some changes in the 787 program the most visible of which is the production taper of 787 temporary surge line in Everett.  Last month there were 3 787s loaded into the Surge position 1 to start final assembly.  Starting this month Boeing will load only one 787 into the surge line in building 40-24 and that will come at the end of the month for the next four months.  40-24 is going to be a very lonely place until 777X production get started in three years.

The 2 787s from surge production are being allocated one each to the main lines in Everett 40-26 and North Charleston 88-30.  In fact North Charleston production is already very busy with 8 airplanes on the final assembly floor and another 6 on the flightline.

Boeing can deliver a total of 12 787s this month,  8 787-8 and 4 787-9.  I expect that there can be up to 6 deliveries in July from North Charleston including one 787-8 for PrivatAir that was assembled At Everett but ferried to South Carolina.  One 787-8 for Kenya Airways was supposed to be delivered in June but was held up at the request of the customer for unknown reasons.  Sources say that this airplane should be delivered this month which would be the 6th delivery out of North Charleston.  Some notable deliveries would include the first 787-8 for Scoot and Vietnam's first 787-9 as well as the aforementioned first 787-8 for PrivatAir.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787, both to Jetstar.

Thus far through today, July 15, 2015, Boeing has delivered 2 787s this month, 66 in 2015 and 294 total since deliveries began in September 2011.

There was some good news and some potentially not so good news for the 787 program.  First the not so good news.  Zodiac Aerospace has more trouble again when an explosion occurred (a possible chemical explosion) at its interior fabrication plant in Newport, Washington.  Both Boeing and Airbus are reviewing the impact to their production lines but I do believe that this will impact Boeing more than Airbus.  It is unclear if it will impact 787 deliveries at this point.

The good news for the 787 program is that the 787-10 has completed its CDR (critical design review) and is on its way to having 90% of detailed engineering drawings completed by the end of the year.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Dreamliner 2015 mid year report

2015 so far is a good year for the 787.  Midway through 2015 Boeing has delivered 64 787 including 23 787-9.  In June Boeing delivered 10 787 - 6 787-9 and 4 787-8.  One the production front, the program loaded 64 different air frames to start final assembly and rolled out 63 by June 30th.

In terms of efficiency, the Everett lines were slightly more efficient at a ratio of 0.96 for the first half of 2015 versus North Charleston at 1.05.  June was not a very efficient month for North Charleston as its efficiency ratio in June was 2.0 versus Everett at 0.88.  For North Charleston the score was skewed by 4 deliveries made in May and only 2 in June while production rate was around 3 and 4 respectively.  In other words there was an extra delivery made in May and I suspect there will be 4 deliveries from North Charleston in July.

With quarter end there usually is a push to get as many airplanes delivered as possible but Boeing 787 deliveries from May to June were down from 13 to 10.  While still respectable, the 787 delivery number was hurt by continued issues with seat installations in airplanes destined for American Airlines and Etihad Airways.  Additionally, the change in production rate in Charleston may have slowed things a bit as Boeing is being careful with the break in rate at both 787 lines now that the surge line is winding down.

Speaking of the surge line, there are only 4 more 787 air frames that are scheduled to be built on that line.  Boeing will now slow that line down to a point where only 1 787 will be loaded each month from July to October (there were 3 loaded in June). With the 2 surge air frames now going to 40-26 and 88-30.  There will be an increase in the number of air frames on the Charleston flight line as there is a transition time where deliveries will have to catch up to the production rate.  This may not happen until the end of the summer.

For the last half of this year, expect that 787-9 deliveries will outnumber 787-8 deliveries which is expected as there are over 475 787-9 to be delivered against just under 200 787-8.  In fact June 2015 was the first month where 787-9 deliveries did outnumber 787-8 deliveries as mentioned earlier.  I expect this trend to more or less continue each month.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing 787 May 2015 Mid Month Report

Midway through the month of May, Boeing is set up quite nicely to delivery a good number of 787s to customers.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 4 787s this month including the last of American's 787-8 that were delayed due to the seat issues at Zodiac.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 273 787s, 45 during 2015 and 4 in the month of May.

More encouraging is the level of 787 flight test activity that has occurred over the last week and a half.  There have been a number of customer flights that have taken place and as a consequence, there are 6 aircraft that are ready to be delivered including at least 5 that are expected to be delivered on May 21st.  Boeing is expected to conduct a customer flight in a next couple of days on a 787-9 for United Airlines that will be delivered from Charleston.  Thus we can see 6 787s delivered by the start of the Memorial Day weekend for a total of 10 in May with a few more expected to be delivered by the end of May.

However there is a more impressive statistic that I would like to share.  The last 15 787 deliveries made by Boeing (essentially the 11 April deliveries and the 4 May deliveries) required and average of 3.8 test flights before the airplanes were handed over.  This average excludes the flights made by Charleston built airplanes for painting purposes.  Another impressive statistic:  Over the same 15 airplanes (excluding the last 2 American Airlines 787s that were delivered during this period) the average time from start of final assembly to delivery is 89.5 days across all three lines in Everett and Charleston.

If Boeing can execute, they can potentially have delivered 13 787s this month, 53 for 2015 and 282 787 delivered since program deliveries began in 2011.  There is a potential hiccup though it doesn't seem to be serious.  There are three 787-9 for Etihad that have completed final assembly but have not had any test flights.  The aircraft are painted but have been sitting on the flightline.  One airplane, ZB079 (LN 286, A6-BLC) having finished final assembly activities in mid February....3 months ago! Another, ZB080 (LN 302, A6-BLD) rolled out about a month ago.  A third, ZB081 (LN 305, A6-BLE) rolled out of final about 3 weeks ago and just came out of paint a few days ago.  I can only speculate that these airplanes are being held up because of issues with Zodiac as well.  It appears that these airplanes will be delayed for just as long as the ones for American.  These three are the only remaining deliveries to Etihad this year.

Lastly, with about 6 months left before the temporary surge line is shut down for good, There are still 12 airplanes that are in assembly or will go through final assembly by November.  Boeing will start 2 more 787s this month, 3 next month (June) and then execute a rate break whereby 2 airplanes will go one each to the main Everett line and the main Charleston line.  From July to October, Boeing will send only 1 787 to the temporary surge line.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing to shut down 787 surge line by year end to take advantage of production efficiencies; start up 777X production

On Friday Boeing announced the decision to shut down the 787 temporary surge line in Everett and move the assembly of airplanes from that line to the main lines in 40-26 and 88-30.  By the end of the year both lines will be producing 5 787 per month.

The decision to close it down is certainly not a shock but to shut it early was a surprise.  Efficiency gains that were realized earlier than expected on both the Charleston and Everett lines allowed for cost reduction that come with merging the three lines into 2.  Boeing figured that it now costs less to produce 10 airplanes in 2 line than it does on 3 lines.  Boeing will start converting the line to in order to do assembly activities on the 777X which is slated to start production around 2017-2018.

The switch over will down gradually over the next 6 months.  Charleston should be at 4 by the start of July while 40-26 will be producing 5 and 40-24 will be at 1.  By November, the switch over from 40-24 to 40-26 and 88-30 should be complete. The last 787 to be built on the TSL will load around October and in November all future assembly activities will be done either on 40-26 or 88-30. ZB236 (LN 381) will be the last aircraft built on 40-24.  This airplane is for AerCap and being leased to KLM.

Boeing started production on the 40-24 surge line in the 3rd quarter 2012 as means to reduce schedule risk associated with opening the Charleston line as well as a means to catch up on deliveries delayed by the repeated Dreamliner production issues.  The line no has fulfilled its mission and 40-24 will now be used to support production of early 777X airplanes.

Beverly Wyse's statement to BSC employees regarding the surge line shutdown:

Today Boeing Commercial Airplanes announced that we’ve finalized plans to close the Everett 787 Dreamliner Temporary Surge Line (TSL) later this year to allow the 777X Program to transition into the factory space currently occupied by the TSL and begin production preparations for the 777X. We are confident that the timing is right for this transition, and our ability to do so this year is a testament to our teams’ capabilities. 

With the phasing out of the TSL, BSC Final Assembly will produce five additional airplanes, meaning that we will transition to our Final Assembly production rate of five per month earlier than planned.

We continue to work on improvement with some of our suppliers, and we’re confident in your ability to execute this plan. I am committed to insuring that BSC remains stable and that we follow our site overtime guidelines so our teammates enjoy time off with their families. 

This is great news for our site further demonstrates the very high level of confidence that the Boeing executive leadership team has in your abilities. Boeing South Carolina has quickly earned a reputation for successfully rising to any challenge with our “Bring it On” attitude, and if any team can do this -- and do it successfully, it’s you! 

As always, thank you for your hard work and dedication!

Beverly 

The 6 787-8 that were ordered from an unidentified customer late last month will be coming from the lot of early build 787s (also known as the "Terrible Teens").  The customer ordered Roll Royce engines throwing into doubt about who is the end user.  I had speculated that the order is for Ethiopian or a lessor with a n agreement to lease the airplanes to Ethiopian given the news over the past month or so.  However, Ethiopian's current fleet of 787s use GEnx engines.  IT's still very possible that the airplanes can end up with Ethiopian who don't mind using the Trent-1000 engines.

From the firing order it also appears that TUI Travel has ordered the 787-9.  It's still too early to know how many but the order must be one of the unidentified 787-9 orders that is listed on Boeing's order and delivery web site (there are 4 separate orders).  Also on the firing order is 2 additional 787-9 for united Airlines (LN 443 and LN 445).  They had recently reduced their 787-9 order to 16 so I believe the changes hadn't made it way through the system.  I fully expect that LN 443 and LN 445 will be allocated to another 787-9 customer within the next couple of months.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing attempts to build and deliver 787-9 in 67 days

Boeing is going to try and build and deliver a 787-9 for Scoot in 67 days.  The aircraft in questions, ZB130 (LN 308, 9V-OJD) started final assembly on March 23 and rolled out on April 22, which was 30 days later, from the main 787 assembly line 40-26 in Everett.  It took its first flight today, May 6 which is 2 weeks after rolling out and is projected to spend 23 days in pre-delivery.

ZB130 still has to be painted that should happen between May 10 and May 15th with delivery occurring on May 29th.  This would be 67 days from the time the aircraft entered final assembly to the time it would be delivered.  Of course this could be derailed if there are maintenance or build issues or if Scoot is not prepared to take delivery for some reason.

If Boeing is able to accomplish this, it would be a milestone event in the 787 program as Boeing has yet to build and deliver a 787 in under 70 days.  The current record is 76 days when Boeing built and delivered a 787 to Arke (owned by TUI Travel) earlier this year.  That aircraft, ZA324 (LN 281, PF-TFM) was built in Everett and spent 38 days in final assembly (40-24 surge line), 24 days in pre-flight testing and paint, and 14 days in pre-delivery.  Boeing would hve more confidence in increasing the production rate as well reaffirm their production methods with the aim of further reducing production costs.  If Boeing can demonstrate faster production and delivery times, it can go a long way to reducing 787 production costs which has been a drain on its earnings,

787 production cost still increasing but at a slower rate as deliveries become more streamlined.

There was a little drama as I work up Thursday morning to an email from Google Blogger saying that they had deleted my blog.  A number of readers emailed me about it and a forum topic on airliners.net was created.  Here's the story.  Bloggers automated systems accidentally flagged the blog a TOS (Terms of Service) violator for phishing.  Well nothing can be further from the truth about this blog or my intentions.  I appealed to Blogger to restore the blog which they had thankfully done but for a few hours I was faced with the disheartening possibility of loosing my archived blog posts though the 787 tables were unaffected and are still accessible if you had the URL.  Lesson learned - I'm going to back up my blog posts.  Now back to our regularly scheduled programming!

The 787 program made progress on the delivery front but it continues to be a drag on Boeing’s financial results.  Notably, deferred production cost increased during the 1^st quarter by $793mm to $26.9bn and increased 787 deliveries dragged down operating margins for BCA from 11.8% to 10.5% (because of the continued high cost of producing each 787 vs. the actual cash they have bought in is negative).  While Boeing is still struggling to drive down 787 production cost, they expect to see a net profit on each unit produced sometime late this year and also reported that 787-8 unit costs over the last 190 787-8 deliveries declined 30% while 787-9 unit cost declines 25% over the first 20 deliveries.  Boeing says that they expect deferred costs to start declining soon after they achieve rate break to 12/month which is expected to take place in late 2016.  Greg Smith, Boeing's CFO said:

When you look over that time frame (fourth quarter 2014 to 1st quarter 20015), we have seen improved performance. In particular, I noted on the 787-9, is they're coming down the learning curve in a very aggressive manner. And I think that goes to the lessons learned off the 787-8 in getting those into the production system. So that introduction of that airplane is going very well. And as you know, that will be close to half of our deliveries this year. So that smooth introduction is important.

Looking at 787 production at Everett and Charleston, it does appear that Boeing is making a drive to reduce assembly times as well as time to delivery.  In reviewing the 787 tables we can see that the time in final assembly in Charleston is about 42 to 46 days while in 40-24 the assembly times is around 37 to 39 days.  In 40-26 the final assembly times is much shorter..around 30 days.  Post assembly times are also improving with Charleston airplanes taking about 40 to 50 days from the end of final assembly to delivery.  At Everett the time is now ranging from 45 to about 75 but the more realistic time frame is about 60 days. Overall both locations are taking about 90 to 110 days to assembly, test, fly and deliver 787s though it appears that the numbers are trending down, particularly in North Charleston.  Of course, delivery times is also driven by customer needs so while Boeing may be ready to deliver, the customer may not be.

A silver lining is that 787 deliveries thus far are more evenly spread out this month rather than being bunched up at the end of the month as is generally the case with 787 deliveries.  This can only help reduce cost in the program as Boeing doesn't have to spend more money in overtime at month end trying to make deliveries to customers thus bunching up the aircraft deliveries in the last few days of the month.  I do expect at least 5 more deliveries this month including 2 to American Airlines.  To date Boeing has delivered 266 787s, 38 787s in 2015, and 8 in April.  22 787-9s were delivered thus far and I expect that the number of 787-9 delivered, which are higher margin aircraft, should increase dramatically this year.  

Obviously Boeing deliveries numbers have been impacted by the production issues at Zodiac especially deliveries to American and Etihad.  No doubt 787 delivery numbers would have been stronger without the Zodiac issue.  Boeing doesn't expect the Zodiac problem to impact their delivery numbers for this year but the issue will persistent until the end of the 2nd quarter after which it is assumed that Zodiac would have its act together.

Lastly, Boeing's order book took a temporary hit when United Airlines, as expect, converted 10 787-9 to 777-300ER.  Additionally, American Airlines deferred 5 787s that were to be delivered in 2016 to 2017(4) and 2018(1).  American will now take 13 787s this year (3 already delivered), 8 in 2016, 13 in 2017 and 8 in 2018.  United is expected to take 11 more 787-9s by the end of the 1st quarter of 2016.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 production and delivery update, March 10, 2015

Production

Boeing's 787 production continues at the 10/month pace so far in March but according to sources it appears that Boeing will start final assembly on 11 aircraft this month including 5 on the main Everett line.  Boeing is planning, later this year, to reduce 787 production on the surge assembly line (in 40-24) by 2 airplanes and allocate one each to the main lines in Everett and North Charleston.  This should take place around October.

Just recently Boeing started final assembly on the first 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines which should be delivered around May.  Another interesting development was a reallocation of 787-8 L/N 339. Initially this aircraft was going to go to Air India as ZA251 and would have been the carrier's 22nd 787-8.  This aircraft has been reallocated to American Airlines as ZA827 and will be the airlines' 11th 787 when it's delivered around September.  Thus American will take 13 not 12 787s while Air India will take 3 not 4 787s this year.  This reallocation lends strong evidence that Boeing and Air India maybe close to an agreement whereby Air India will take their remaining 787 orders (6 in total) as 787-9s.  A formal announcement has yet to be made but it appears to be close.  Air India does have financing in place for the remaining two deliveries.  One is to occur this month and the last will occur in June.

Flight Testing and Deliveries

Production flight testing seems to have slowed down during the month.  While 10 airplanes have been in various stages of flight testing Boeing does appear to be aiming for a large number of deliveries this month.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787s to Scoot and Virgin Atlantic but looks to try and deliver 13 more 787s this month for a total of 15.  I think a more realistic number will be 12 more deliveries by the end of March.  To complicate matters, I'm still wondering at the slow pace of deliveries to American Airlines.  The carriers' 3rd 787 made a trip to Victorville, Ca., a trip that the airlines' first 2 787s didn't conduct.  I can only speculate the reason but in the past Boeing has sent aircraft down to Victorville for 1) storage, 2) IFE/Seat/BFE installation, or 3) flight testing.  I think we can rule out 3 which leave only the first two.  I have no indication which one it is.  Additionally, there are three other 787s for American Airlines sitting on the tarmac at Everett though two are recent roll outs and have yet to be painted the third is painted and has been outside for quite sometime yet no B-1 flight has been conducted.

The 787 program is nearing 250 (249 delivered thus far) deliveries and should have delivered 25% of the total current 787 orders by the end of April.

Lastly, there has been a lot of questions (and confusion of costs related to the 787 program, namely deferred production costs and carry-loss forward and how it relates to the break even on the program. Vero Venia put together this great post describing it in great detail and I recommend the read.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing to curtail 787 surge line final assembly activities later this fall

According to analysis of final assembly activities for the 787, Boeing is planning to shift final assembly of some 787s currently being built on the surge line (in 40-24) to the main final assembly line in Everett and the North Charleston line.  Currently, Boeing assembling 4 787s/month on the main line in 40-26, 3/month on the surge line in 40-24 and 3/month on the North Charleston line in 88-30.

Around October, Boeing will reduce the number of 787 airplanes assembled on the surge line by 2 aircraft/month and reallocate 1/month each to 40-26 and the North Charleston line.  40-26 will assemble 5/month and North Charleston will assemble 4/month while the surge will still assemble 1/month.  It has been Boeing's plan to use the surge line as a temporary line while they got the North Charleston line up and running and increasing the production rate from 3/month to 10/month.

I believe Boeing has enough confidence in the North Charleston facility to to increase its production rate early.  Boeing is supposed to increase the North Charleston rate to 5/month in 2016 but it appears this may happen sooner than expected.  I do believe that in 2016 Boeing will shut down the 787 surge line reallocate the lone aircraft on that line to 40-26 and then when they ready to up the rate to 12/month, assign 1 each to 40-26 and 88-30.

The surge line is planned to be used for final assembly of the initial batch of 777X.

787 Mid Month Report - October, 2014

With 10 days left in the month, Boeing seems to be struggling to get production airplanes into the air for testing prior to delivery by the end of this month.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 5 787s this month but I do expect 1 more to deliver by the end of this week.  With those deliveries Boeing will hit 199 deliveries and I believe the 200th delivery will go to Qatar Airways when ZA475 (LN 207, A7-BCP) is delivered to the carrier around October 27.  Boeing is trying to deliver a total of 11 787s this month including a -9 to United Airlines.  Production flight testing seems to have slowed though it's unclear why.There are still a number of aircraft that still need to perform further Boeing and/or customer flights before they're ready for delivery within the next 10 days.

On the production front Boeing has rolled out 8 787s and started final assembly on another 8.  They will end rolling out a total of 11 787s from final assembly this month.  The inventory backlog sitting on the flightlines at Everett and Charleston won't change this month.  The schedules for many 787s deliveries have been pushed to the right.  For example, Avianca's first 787 was supposed to have been delivered in September.  It is now scheduled to be delivered in mid November.  As we move into November Boeing will change the final assembly line slightly in 40-24 (the surge line).  Instead of the 6 positions that are currently in use (0, 1A, 1B, 2, 3, 4), Boeing will go back to 5 positions starting around October 29th. (0, 1, 2, 3, 4).  I believe this is in preparation of winding down the surge activities by 2016 and moving all Everett 787 production to 40-26.

Production is slow and 787 inventory is growing.  While I don't have any concrete information as to why 787 deferred production costs are rising ($25.2bn through the end of the third quarter), I feel that it is undoubtedly due to the traveled work following all these airplanes.  For a 787 to go from the start if final assembly to delivery takes almost 4 months and therein lies the problem for the increase in deferred production costs.  These airplanes, going through the production system at Everett and Charleston, have to spend a lot of time finishing assembly tasks after final assembly is completed.  The promised efficiencies on the final assembly level have yet to materialize but Boeing insists they will start turning profitable on the 787 program in 2015. Part of the increase in production cost is due to the introduction of the 787-9.  These aircraft had to spend time at the EMC undergoing change incorporation as well as finishing traveled work.  As the aircraft is more integrated into the 787 production system and change incorporation is no longer necessary, cost to produce the 787-9 should come down  and should aid the overall reduction of deferred production costs in 2015.

I believe that in order to gauge that is to closely examine the time it takes for Boeing to get a plane from start of final assembly to delivery.  We need to see the aircraft coming out of final assembly without any traveled work.  This means that the 787 goes from the final assembly hall to the paint hangar then directly to the flightline to start production testing.  It also means that Boeing minimizes company and customer test flights which indicates improved build quality.  Currently Boeing has 32 787s (including the the "Terrible Teens" but not including those that are in production) in Everett.  This rising inventory needs to be cleared faster than the current rate which can be tracked on the production Trends spreadsheet.  Simply, Boeing needs to deliver 787s faster than then they are rolling them out at the factory.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Adjustments to 787 delivery schedule for September

Looks like there's some adjustment to the 787 delivery schedule for September.  Looks like the delivery of ZA246 (LN 208, VT-ANR) is being pushed back a bit but there isn't a new delivery date on this as of yet.

Also the line move in 40-24 has been delayed as engineers try to work an issue on ZB005 (LN 236, ZK-NZG) which requires it to be back inside.  There isn't any word on when the line move will pule to allow the next aircraft to start final assembly.

Meanwhile ZA817 (LN 241, N800AN) for American Airlines is sitting in position 3 in 40-26 still waiting for its engines to be attached.  There is some unknown issue and the first 787 for American won't have them hung until next week.

ZA003, the third 787-8 test flight aircraft, was also flown to Boeing Field earlier today as it is going to be prepared for display at Seattle's Museum of Flight.  No word on the fate of the other two undeliverable test airplanes but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in Museums as well.  I doubt that they would be exhibited with actual engines as that would be expensive.

At this rate it does appear that Boeing will not make 10 deliveries this month and may have to settle for 9 or fewer.

Lastly, some anonymous readers have sent me pictures of ZA006 on the Charleston flight line and I'd like to share them with you.

Photo by Anonymous

Photo by Anonymous

Photo by Anonymous

Photo by Anonymous

Photo by Anonymous

Photo by Anonymous

Photo by Anonymous

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 Update - August 19, 2014

787 deliveries picked up the first two and half weeks into August with 7 deliveries thus far including British Airways 8th and final 787-8.  They are second customer to have its 787-8 completely fulfilled this year (China Southern being the other).  In the next 12 days I do see Boeing delivering 7 more Dreamliners between the 20th and the 31st.  Currently they have delivered 177 787 since deliveries began, 63 this year, 15 thus far in the quarter and 7 so far this month.

The upcoming deliveries would include United's first 787-9 though Boeing is still waiting for the final FAA Type Certification for the GE powered aircraft.  We should also see the first deliveries to Royal Jordanian and Xiamen this month when they take 1 787-8 each.  Deliveries should also be made to Qatar, Jetstar (QANTAS), Kenya Airways and ANA.

For September, Boeing is looking to end the 3rd quarter 787s delivery on a bang with about 18 (maybe 19) deliveries.  The preliminary plan is for Boeing to deliver up to 4 787-9s including the first to Virgin Atlantic as well as one more each to ANA, Air New Zealand and United.  Also we can see the 10th and final delivery to Ethiopian of their order of 10 787-8s though they are going to be taking more on lease from AerCap. Both Avianca and CIT Leasing will take ownership of their 1st 787s.  In the case of CIT, these aircraft are being leased to Royal Jordanian.

While deliveries look promising this month, Boeing will start final assembly on only 7 787s this month.  It appears that there will be delay in the start of final assembly of LN 240 and LN 241 while Boeing South Carolina will continue producing at 3/month.  The word I've heard is that this to allow the start of transitioning of work from the surge line in 40-24 to 40-26 and the eventual shut down (in 2016) of the 787 surge line in 40-24.  Right now the surge is producing 3 787s while the main line is producing 4.  It'll be interesting to see how Boeing handles the transition over the next couple of years.

In September, Boeing should start final assembly on aircraft destined for American Airlines (2), Scoot and Royal Air Maroc.  If they are to deliver 26 airplanes by the end of September then Boeing can potentially have 203 total deliveries, 89 this year, and 41 in the third quarter.  They will have to put the pedal to the metal in terms of production flight testing however.  The next couple of leading up to the Labor Day holiday will probably be very slow as people go on vacation but come September 2nd the pace should quick substantially.  If they are able to deliver a substantial number of 787 in the next month and half then Boeing could potentially deliver closer to 120 787s this year.  Please note that there are a lot that can happen that would cause this estimation to go out the window but it does appear that Boeing is on a good track to deliver the delivery guidance.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker