787 Update - August 19, 2014

787 deliveries picked up the first two and half weeks into August with 7 deliveries thus far including British Airways 8th and final 787-8.  They are second customer to have its 787-8 completely fulfilled this year (China Southern being the other).  In the next 12 days I do see Boeing delivering 7 more Dreamliners between the 20th and the 31st.  Currently they have delivered 177 787 since deliveries began, 63 this year, 15 thus far in the quarter and 7 so far this month.

The upcoming deliveries would include United's first 787-9 though Boeing is still waiting for the final FAA Type Certification for the GE powered aircraft.  We should also see the first deliveries to Royal Jordanian and Xiamen this month when they take 1 787-8 each.  Deliveries should also be made to Qatar, Jetstar (QANTAS), Kenya Airways and ANA.

For September, Boeing is looking to end the 3rd quarter 787s delivery on a bang with about 18 (maybe 19) deliveries.  The preliminary plan is for Boeing to deliver up to 4 787-9s including the first to Virgin Atlantic as well as one more each to ANA, Air New Zealand and United.  Also we can see the 10th and final delivery to Ethiopian of their order of 10 787-8s though they are going to be taking more on lease from AerCap. Both Avianca and CIT Leasing will take ownership of their 1st 787s.  In the case of CIT, these aircraft are being leased to Royal Jordanian.

While deliveries look promising this month, Boeing will start final assembly on only 7 787s this month.  It appears that there will be delay in the start of final assembly of LN 240 and LN 241 while Boeing South Carolina will continue producing at 3/month.  The word I've heard is that this to allow the start of transitioning of work from the surge line in 40-24 to 40-26 and the eventual shut down (in 2016) of the 787 surge line in 40-24.  Right now the surge is producing 3 787s while the main line is producing 4.  It'll be interesting to see how Boeing handles the transition over the next couple of years.

In September, Boeing should start final assembly on aircraft destined for American Airlines (2), Scoot and Royal Air Maroc.  If they are to deliver 26 airplanes by the end of September then Boeing can potentially have 203 total deliveries, 89 this year, and 41 in the third quarter.  They will have to put the pedal to the metal in terms of production flight testing however.  The next couple of leading up to the Labor Day holiday will probably be very slow as people go on vacation but come September 2nd the pace should quick substantially.  If they are able to deliver a substantial number of 787 in the next month and half then Boeing could potentially deliver closer to 120 787s this year.  Please note that there are a lot that can happen that would cause this estimation to go out the window but it does appear that Boeing is on a good track to deliver the delivery guidance.

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Boeing increases 787 production flight testing

Over the past few weeks, Boeing has been aggressively flying production 787s on Boeing and customer flight tests.  In June, Boeing has conducted seven B-1 flights on the production 787s and I do think that they can fly at least 4 more before the end of the month. This should include one aircraft for British Airways, ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG), a BBJ for the Saudi Ministry of Finance, ZA779 (LN 193, HZ-MF8), one for United Airlines, ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) which will be used for 787-9/GEnX F&R/ETOPs testing and one for Qatar Airways, ZA474 (LN 188, A7-BCO).  ZA456 did file a flight plan on June 17th but the aircraft did not fly).


There was a large up tick in flight activity during the last week or so which leads me to believe the Boeing is going for an all out push to deliver around 14 787s this month.  They have already delivered 6 this month including the last 787 for China Southern Airlines from their order of 10 aircraft.




As for deliveries for the rest of this month, in my opinion this is the aircraft I see being delivered in the next 12 days:


ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV) for Ethiopian
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) for Air New Zealand (1st 787-9 delivery)
ZA473 (LN 176, A7-BCN) for Qatar Airways
ZA580 (LN 183, EI-LNG) for ILFC/Norwegian
ZA656 (LN 184, 5Y-KZB) for Kenya Airways
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) for LAN
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) for United Airlines
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA) for ILFC/Thai (may not deliver until July)


Boeing does need to deliver many of these planes as ramp space is quickly being filled at both Everett and Charleston. There are about 30 planes that are outside on the flightlines, paint hangars and other spots at the two assembly locations but if the current pace of flight activity continues then much of that ramp space should be cleared over the next couple of weeks and occupied by aircraft that will be coming out of final assembly.  It does seem that Boeing has a pretty good handle on the assembly aspect but the build quality still has to improve a bit in order to avoid inventories from creeping higher again. 


Lastly, one additional note to my previous post regarding the 787-9.  The FAA has certified this aircraft for ETOPS 330 thus fulfilling Boeing's promise to Air New Zealand to deliver the ETOPS certified aircraft.

 

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787 Production Update - May 2014

Boeing is progressing well to deliver 10 787s this month.  Today (May 23rd), Boeing delivered Air India's 14th Dreamliner, moving them more than half way to completing the carriers 27 aircraft order.  This is also probably one of the last early build airplanes that will be delivered for a few months (ZA232, LN 28, VT-ANC). They have delivered 5 787s thus far in May.

Rumor has it that Boeing will be looking to deliver anywhere from 2 to 4 more early build 787s including one to Korean Air.  Late last year, Korean Air placed an order for a single 787-8, which is unusual as they have an order for 10 787-9.  This order was for a single early build 787-8.  Why they bought only one is still a mystery given their extensive route network.  It is entirely possible that this aircraft will be solely used on Korean's domestic network.

For the rest of month, Boeing should be able to deliver 5 more this month. I had previously mentioned that ANA should get one delivered this month but now it will be delivered in June. This will also include the first 787-9 delivered to Air New Zealand on June 30th.

Boeing should deliver to Air India, Ethiopian, British Airways, Norwegian (ILFC), and Hainan.  Next month should see the same number of deliveries as this month.  It appears that Boeing will be looking to try to deliver more than the 110 787s that they have stated in their guidance.the number could be closer 120 but it will all depend on production execution.  Additionally 12 of these aircraft should be 787-9.

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May 787 deliveries still slow half way through the month

With less than 2 weeks remaining in the month, Boeing has delivered only 3 787s to customers including the 1st to Air Canada.  The total seems anemic but Boeing has been known to finish the month strong by delivering 78s in the last 7 to 10 days of the month.  I don't think this month will be an exception but the company won't be able to deliver 12 aircraft that I predicted earlier.  I do see them delivering 10 in May including the ones that have already been delivered.

Here's my revised delivery projections:

Air India - 2 (ZA232, ZA244)
ANA - 1 (ZA136)
British Airways - 1 (ZA455)
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 (ZA265)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (ZA437)
ILFC/Norwegian - 1 (ZA579)

This number is still 1 short (actually .5 airplanes short) of what Boeing needs to deliver for the remainder of the year if they need to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries.

While there has been a number of B-1 flights earlier this month, Boeing still has to increase the tempo in order to prepare for June deliveries.

To date Boeing has delivered 143 total 787s, 29 in 2014 and 3 thus far in May.

Lastly, ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) flew back to Everett today from Boeing Field.  It seems that he flight testing it was conducting to certify software changes on a production standard aircraft is complete.  The aircraft will probably be cleaned up and prepared for customer test flights be fore being delivered to Hainan.
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Boeing delivers 18 787s in 1st quarter 2014; 787-9 stays on pace to complete certification by June.

Boeing reported 3rd quarter 787 deliveries on Thursday and, given the issues of the past quarter, were surprisingly good.  Boeing has delivered 18 787s in the first quarter of 2014 and 132 through March 31st.  To date Boeing has delivered 133 787s.

I was full expecting 787 deliveries to be curtailed during this quarter due to the on going travelled work as well as the wing inspections.  In March Boeing delivered 10 787s of these 6 of them were in the batch that had been identified as needing wing inspections and possible repairs.  This suggests that not all the 787 in the batch which includes LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive may have the wing issues.  Future deliveries may not be hurt as much as was feared due to this issue.  Notable deliveries were made to Kenya Airways, 2 each to Japan Airlines and Qatar Airways as well as deliveries to Royal Brunei, Aeromexico, Norwegian, United Airlines, and Air India (the first 787 assembled for them).  So far so good.  However, Boeing needs to maintain a delivery rate of 10/month in order to meet their guidance of 100-110 787 deliveries in 2014.  They were hurt by low deliveries in February where the expectation was to be a significantly higher delivery rate compared to the 4 that were actually handed over.

Production seems to have moved back to a regular pace since the travelled work issues forced Boeing to extend the amount of time that each airframe was spent in final assembly.  At the start of the year air frames were spending 34 days in final assembly.  This grew to as many as 42 days but now looks to be trending down.  The last aircraft to be rolled out, ZA136 (LN 179) for ANA spent 37 days in final assembly.  Boeing expects to be over the travelled work issues by the time LN 195 is loaded into Position 1A sometime next Friday.  According to sources, the travelled work has greatly improved thus I do expect that by May Boeing will have stabilized the production system for the 787.  They are are still building at a rate of 10/month according to my data.

While it is still early in April, Boeing does need to pick up the pace of production flight tests.  They have delivered 1 787 to Qatar Airways on April 1 and have started customer flights on ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT.  This aircraft may deliver as early as next week.  However there are only 4 other aircraft that have started production flights and none of those have had customer flights as of yet.  ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) is probably the closest to having customer flights.  There has been a notable lack of 787 B-1 flights, the last came on March 25th...11 days ago.  Moreover aircraft that have been out on the flightline for sometime don't appear ready to start production flights.  ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) was observed by Matt Cawby going back into the EMC for an unknown reason.  Air Canada maintains that they expect their first 787 this spring but there hasn't been anything regarding a month.  They may be able to deliver 10 787s this month but they need to start getting these airplanes into the air.

787-9 flight testing has been steaming along with very few hitches.  It appears that Boeing is on the cusp of starting functionality and reliability and ETOPs flight testing very soon. ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was observed by Matt Cawby as having a US civil registration decal.  I think this aircraft should be conducting its first flight within the next one week and subsequently join the 787-9 test flight program. The program has accumulated well over 1000 flight test hours and about 450 test flights.  It is expected that will accumulated over 1500 flight test hours by the time Boeing is done.  ZB197 will perform the F& R/ETOPs flight tests for the 787-9 powered by Roll Royce, ZB167 (LN 181) for United Airlines will undertake the same testing for the GE powered version of the 787-9.  This aircraft should roll out around Monday, April 7th.  I would expect it to start flying around mid to late May.  It is around this time that flight testing on the Rolls Royce powered 787-9 should almost be complete.

As far as April deliveries are concerned, we've already seen one aircraft delivered to Qatar Airways.  There should be two more than should deliver relatively soon:  ZA 275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT Polish, and ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) for Qatar.  Other carriers that may see deliveries include: Air Canada, Ethiopian, Air India, Hainan, Aeromexico, Norwegian, Royal Brunei, and Jetstar (QANTAS).  A few of the still have to conduct a first flight and more still have to conduct follow on Boeing flights.


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Mea Culpa....Boeing 787 deliveries looking good for March

Ok so last post I figured that Boeing will not deliver more than 4 787s in March.  Well I'm having a crow dinner as Boeing has delivered 5 this month and looks to possibly deliver 4 to 5 more before the end of the month.

Last week Boeing did deliver three 787s to customers (one for Japan Airlines, one for Qatar, and one for United Airlines).  Now it's looking like Boeing can deliver one to Qatar this week as well as two for ILFC (for Norwegian and Aeromexico), Royal Brunei and possibly Kenya Airways.  The later is to fly to Nairobi around April 4th but it may deliver a few days before that and fly away on April 3rd. 

It does appear that Boeing flight activities are picking up, possibly to verify any wing fixes on the aircraft that needed them.  I do believe that the airplanes are still going to the EMC to finish off travel work but also to conduct the wing inspections and implement the fix if needed.

Meanwhile the ramp in Everett continues to get crowded while the Charleston ramp is starting to see an easing of congestion.  Of the 5 787s delivered this month, 3 were Charleston built 787 and 2 were built in Everett. One aircraft that was built in Everett, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) for Air India was delivered at Charleston even though it was built in Everett.

Boeing did deliver LN 152, on the 787s that was within the batch with suspected wing issues.  It appears that this aircraft was cleared of the issues after the inspection and was subsequently delivered to Japan Airlines.

In terms of production, It appears that Boeing is continuing on rolling out 10 787s per month.  LN 190 should be the last 787 to enter final assembly this month. Lastly, I do anticipate that ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) should make its first flight sometime in April and join the 787-9 test flight fleet.  This will be a production standard aircraft with little to no flight test wiring/equipment.

As far as April 787 deliveries goes...it's too soon to tell.  We would need to see more B-1 flights and there hasn't been one of those since March 10th...2 weeks ago.


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787 February Production and Delivery Report

With the first 2 months of 2014 officially in the books, the 787 program is starting to show some new signs of life but there are still some dark clouds hanging over the program but the darkest one of all is the continued travel work from Charleston's mid-body fuselage assembly. I still do not expect that the issue will be resolved until next month.

It does appear that Boeing has changed the production system a bit in light of the traveled work.  Instead of sending the aircraft out at regular intervals, regardless of completion, from final assembly to the EMC, Boeing seems to be keeping them in final assembly a bit longer than planned.  The only plausible reason is not only to finish off much if not all the traveled work but also to give more time to the Charleston team assembling the mid-body fuselage sections. I have noticed that Boeing is sending aircraft out of final assembly later compared to when these airplanes were expected out.  Just last night an Ethiopian 787 that I had expected to move out on Feb. 25th was rolled out to the EMC according to Matt Cawby. Even with the 6 day delay there is still more travelled work to be done on this aircraft. United's 1st 787-9 should load today.

Previously, it took Boeing 34 days to complete a 787 on either the main line in 40-26 or the surge line in 40-24. It appears, for now, that the number of days has increased to at least 40 days. We would have to see how long these frames stay at the EMC before being painted.

Additionally, Boeing is spacing out the time it loads a new frame into final assembly.  Previously, Boeing loaded a new air frame every one week into Position 1 on either assembly line in Everett.  Starting with LN 175, the time between loadings had grown to initially 9 and now about 11 days before a new air frame was loaded.

If this trend holds for the rest of March, then Boeing is effectively building 6 787/month out of Everett.  Along with 2 from Charleston, we then could see the total number of aircraft that starts final assembly in March dip to 8/month.  This would be a temporary dip in the rate but something that is not surprising given the trouble in Charleston. However it will allow Charleston time to get the the activities in 88-20 back on track and at rate.

Last month, Boeing delivered 4 787s, three to ANA. There has been a moderate uptick, in the 787 flight activity in the last few days. This includes ferrying Charleston built 787s for painting as well as continued production testing. In fact several Qatar aircraft have finally had their customer flights and appear to be ready for delivery. Kenya Airways 1st 787 is ready for its B-1 flight and I expect Air Canada 1st 787 to be ready for delivery before the end of this month.

This what I am expecting for deliveries in March:

Air India - 1

Qatar Airways - 2

United Airlines - 1

Japan Airlines - 2

ILFC - 2 (1 each to Aeromexico and Norwegian)

Hainan - 1

Royal Brunei - 1

Air Canada - 1

Kenya Airways - 1

This is a total of 12 for March but Boeing May be able to deliver 2 more air frames, one each to Qatar and LOT Polish.

787-9 flight testing continues a pace and I still expect that Boeing will finish all certification flight testing for this variant by May followed by formal FAA certification in June and 1st delivery to Air New Zealand in July. That aircraft is still in final assembly in Everett and should be rolled out sometime this week. ANA's first 787-9, ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was rolled out of paint and I expect this aircraft to join the flight test program where it would do functionality and reliability testing. This could start as early as late March but April is more realistic time frame.

I expect the Air New Zealand airframe, ZB003 (LN 169, ZB-NZE) to be transferred over to the EMC where it will finish off travelled work as well as start the change incorporation process where changes mandated by the FAA certification will be made to bring the aircraft up to standard.  Boeing will need to have this aircraft ready in June if it hopes to deliver it in July.

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Boeing Charleston to undergo FAA audit while production heats up. January 787 deliveries look to come in low.

UPDATE: The FAA sent out this response to the audit:  "The FAA will conduct a regularly-scheduled audit of the Boeing Commercial Aircraft production system in February. Boeing’s North Charleston, SC facility will be included in the audit. Five FAA inspectors will assess that Boeing’s systems are in compliance with the regulations for the manufacture of airplanes."


UPDATE:  Boeing emailed me this response:  "This routine audit, conducted about every two years at multiple Boeing locations, is part of Boeing maintaining our Production Certificate 700.  It’s not focused solely on Boeing South Carolina."


FAA Audit at Boeing Charleston

Sources revealed that Boeing Charleston will be undergoing an extensive audit, possibly one of the largest in Boeing's history, as the FAA examines Boeing's production practices.  Among the items that the FAA will be examining will be tool accountability, lost or missing tools, calibration dates, mismatched tools/tooling kits among others.  There will be 5 inspectors who will be at Charleston starting January 27th and remaining there until February 14th.  They will be looking over the shoulders of the manufacturing techs (MT) at the Charleston plant and will be quizzing them about the processes that they are using and how those specs and engineering were authorized.  It was revealed by the Wall Street Journal that Boeing is adding 300 contract workers and may increase that number to as many as 1,000.





Sources described the production of the mid body fuselage section built in building 88-20 as "a complete disaster, a cluster fuck."  This is a very worrying development to Charleston workers as some of them feel that the FAA may shut them down because of issues the audit may uncover.  88-20 is clearly the weakest link in Boeing 787 production chain as it is this unit that produces the mid bodies for all 787s whether they are built in Everett or Charleston.  Some MTs from the final assembly line in 88-30 have been sent to 88-20 to help reduce the strain that this area is facing.  Boeing has promised its MTs an 8% bonus if they can get the 16,000 jobs that they are behind on down to 8,000 by the end of February. If the issues in 88-20 worsen it could lead to slow down of 787 production and deliveries at least for this year.  This is not the first time that the South Carolina plant had undergone an audit.  In June 2008 the FAA audited the 88-20 plant which was then under the 50/50 joint venture between Boeing and Alenia Aeronautica of Italy known as Global Aeronautica.  The audit uncovered lax manufacturing standards and forced a 24 hour shut down of the plant to go over proper procedures regarding FoD.


I have reached out the FAA and Boeing Charleston for comment.  The FAA will inquire and get back to me.  I will update this post if I hear back from either party.





Meanwhile 787s continue to be built...



The FAA audit notwithstanding, Boeing continues to build 787s at both plants at a rate of 10/month.  This month Everett will have started assembly on 9 Dreamliners and Charleston would have started final assembly on 2 aircraft.  Boeing has rolled out quite a few unpainted 787s over the last few weeks onto the flightline.  Usually they go straight to paint after being rolled out.  I'm not sure why they changed this though Boeing test flight could be doing some ground testing before the aircraft is painted.  Whether the 10/month rate can be sustained due to the production issues in Charleston, particularly the mid body assembly in 88-20 remains unclear though this is why Boeing has bought in the contract workers.



Boeing did rollout the first 787 to be produced at the 10/month rate though they said that the aircraft is L/N 155 (ZA564) which is a 787 for ILFC being leased to Aeromexico.  Back in November when Boeing announced that they had started production on the first 787 at 10/month (through Randy Tinseth's Blog) they did not identified the aircraft that had the distinction of being built at that rate.  I was able to identify the aircraft as L/N 152 (ZA188) for Japan Airlines which sources told me was loaded into the first position and started final assembly on Nov. 14, 2013.  When asked about the apparent discrepancy, a Boeing spokesperson insisted that the aircraft that was loaded on Nov. 14th was L/N 155 not L/N 152.  I stand by my belief that the aircraft that kicked of the 10/month production rate is L/N 152.



First deliveries in 2014



Boeing has already delivered 1 787 this month to ANA and is in the process of delivering United's 9th 787 on Jan. 27th. I was expecting quite a few more by now to be handed over.  ZA469 (LN 129, A7-BCH) for Qatar Airways spent a long time being painted (and repainted), first in Ft. Worth, then at Boeing's paint facility in Portland, OR.  I assumed that it was now ready to finish production flight tests and be handed over to the customer but it has been hauled back inside 88-30 in Charleston for unknown reasons.  There are several more Qatar Airways 787s waiting to fly and to be painted but are sitting on the flightline at Boeing Charleston.  It appears that Boeing will not deliver any 787s to Qatar Airways this month.  They are trying to get a couple more to ANA as well as to the first BBJ customer - the Saudi Finance Ministry.  I also believe Boeing can deliver one to ILFC which will leased as a business jet to Sky Blue Holdings.  Boeing may be able to deliver one (maybe 2) to Air India as ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) has been conduction flights as of late. ZA231 (LN 26, VT-ANB) conducted flight tests last month but none this month.  I'm not sure if  ZA231 is ready to be delivered. A very real reason for the slower deliveries is the weather in Everett probably played havoc with the flight tests as Everett suffered from several days of foggy conditions.  There were no test flights for quite a few days as the fog lingered around Paine Field.






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787 Firing Order Updated

The 787 firing order has been updated.  The order for L/N 181 to L/N 200 are now listed and doesn't contain too many surprises.  This firing order should be for aircraft that will enter final assembly through April (end of April).

Here's a quick breakdown:

New operators:

Thai (leased from ILFC)
Arke (formerly Arkefly, through TUI Travel)
Royal Jordanian

Breakdown:
ANA - 1
BBJ - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 1
Kenya Airways - 2
ILFC - 2
LAN - 2
QANTAS - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Jordanian - 1
TUI Travel - 3
United - 2

Only one 787-9 will be going through production and this aircraft is slated for United Airlines (ZB167).

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Boeing achieves 2.8 book to bill on 787 in 2013, readjusts Everett assembly lines

During 2013 Boeing took in 182 787 order (the majority in 787-10) while delivering 65 of them.  This equates to a book to bill ratio (a measure of demand) of 2.8.  The higher the book to bill the higher the demand for that product.  It does remain unclear, however, if Boeing can maintain that kind of performance on the 787. In 2012 the book to bill was 1.09 (50 orders to 46 deliveries).  Undoubtedly the addition of the 787-10 helped tremendously as this airplane accounted for 132 of the 182 net orders Boeing took in.  Boeing needs to ride the 787-10 wave in 2014 and if the 787-9 meets its performance guarantees, it can spur a new flurry of orders for that airplane as well. Boeing will need to book at least 120 to 130 orders to maintain a healthy book to bill ratio in the coming years.  This may prove to be difficult as the A350 will be coming on line as well.






Boeing adds 5th position on assembly lines.


Boeing production machine is getting revved up for the 2014 production year.  While producing at 10/month will help drive some cost reductions that they desperately need, Boeing is only re-working the 787 assembly lines.  In Everett they have inserted a 5th position into the main production line in 40-26 as well as the surge line in 40-24.  Sources say that this position (which is the new position 1) is to allow wing integration work prior to the main wing-body join.  This is suppose to say time integrating wing components after the main join.  Thus the spreadsheets will show a 5th position for Everett.  It does appear that Charleston is already using the same plan as they are also using 5 (out of 8) positions for final assembly of the 787s. 


Boeing does look like it will start assembling 11 787s this month but I expect them to be at 10 next month with 2 from Charleston and 8 from Everett.  In terms of deliveries in January I can see Boeing delivering about 8 aircraft.  Here's my breakdown this month:


Air India - 2
ANA - 3
BBJ - 1
ILFC - 1
Qatar - 1


I was expecting Qatar deliveries to be greater but they have been very particular about the condition of the 787s at delivery and thus these aircraft have been parked at Charleston for a vey long time.  Boeing has switched production of the Qatar 787s to Charleston but with the pickiness exhibited by this customer, Boeing may switch it back to Everett.


Lastly, let me leave you with the Tweet of the Day:

Dear sneeze, If you are going to happen, happen. Don’t put a stupid look on my face and leave it at that. Sincerely, I look like an idiot.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) January 8, 2014

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Boeing makes final 2013 787 delivery push

Boeing has started making its final push to deliver as many commercial jets as possible before the and of the year.  As far as the 787, Boeing has thus far delivered 6 aircraft in December, 16 for the 4th quarter, 60 for 2013 and 109 overall since deliveries began over 2 years ago.  This includes ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines which is contractually delivered but has not made its delivery flight for unknown reasons.  It is expected to flyaway to Tokyo in the next few days.

There are still a number of 787s that are ready of delivery including a trio for China Southern Airlines.  It's been a while since these airplanes have taken a flight but I believe the reason is so Boeing and China Southern can have a bit of a splash and conduct a triple delivery on one day prior to year end.  Boeing will also deliver one more to QANTAS (Jetstar) which has had 4 flights (maybe one or two more needed) and will deliver the first 787 to be configured as a business jet to the UAE (via ILFC).

It stands to reason that Boeing can deliver 65 787s this year.  Their guidance is over 60, thus they'll clearly meet their guidance.

As far as production is concerned, it looks as if Boeing is right now producing at about 9 aircraft/month. There was a hiccup due to a mishap (don't have details) on the main fuselage section for ZA388 (LN 154) for China Southern.  that aircraft was loaded today but it did set back the production schedule, according to my calculations, by 18 days.  ZA244 (LN 158) for Air India, leap-frogged over ZA388 and started final assembly before ZA388. ZA388 was originally supposed to start final assembly around November 19th. ZA244 was loaded into POS 1 on December 7...an 18 day gap between planned and actual loading of the fuselage sections and an approximately 1 month gap between the loading of ZA244 and ZA472 (LN 150) for Qatar Airways.  Boeing Charleston is loading one aircraft approximately every 14 to 15 days or about 2/month. For the record, Jack Jones, VP and general manager of Boeing Charleston says that they are tracking to plan in terms of 787 production.  Boeing is loading a 787 roughly every 4 days at Everett and that rate should get a little bit faster.  Later on when Charleston is ready to go to 3/month, we should see the period between loadings go up slightly to about 1 airplane ever four and a quarter days.

One interesting thing to note is production quality of the 787 coming off the assembly lines.  One way to measure this is to see how many test flights, on average, a Everett-built 787 makes before delivery and compare that to the number of test flights that a Charleston-built 787 makes.  Taking out the 2 ferry flights that Boeing has to make to and from Ft. Worth for painting, I find that Charleston-built 787s fly an average of 6.25 flights before they are delivered while Everett-built 787s fly an average of 5.10 flights before delivery.  Really just one flight more which in the grand scheme of things is not a whole lot. 

A bit of programming note.  I will post a 787 2013 year in review around the end of the month or early in January followed by a 2014 look ahead for the program.

Here are couple of links from Boeing's media day at Boeing Charleston:

Post and Courier photo gallery

Post and Courier Article

Charleston Business Journal Article

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Boeing delivers an anemic 5 787s in November.

So you know how I said that I thought Boeing can deliver 10 to 12 787s last month...boy I didn't even come close.  Instead they delivered an anemic 5 aircraft last month despite all the activity with many of  the aircraft that are still parked in Everett and Charleston.  Boeing has maintained that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year an though the expectations was for a number closer to 68 tor 69 Boeing will still claim that they will have hit their target if all they deliver is 61 in 2013.  They would have met their guidance though I think it would have been a disappointment.

That said, I still do believe they can deliver 64 airplanes this year.  Thus far, Boeing has delivered 56 aircraft including 2 in December. They have the potential to deliver 8 more aircraft even though they can deliver just 5 more and meet their guidance. 

Lately Boeing has been running a few test flights on two frames built in Charleston: ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) for China Southern Airlines and ZA187 (LN 125, JA833J) for Japan Airlines.  I believe that these are final customer flights meant to wring out any further squawks that customer reps have found.  These airplanes should deliver soon but along with those I do expect further deliveries to Hainan, QANTAS (Jetstar) and the first 787 business jet to the UAE Presidential Flight.

Here's my list of expected 787 deliveries in December:

China Southern - 2 aircraft - ZA386 and ZA381
Hainan Airlines - 2 aircraft - ZA432 and ZA435
Japan Airlines - 1 aircraft - ZA187
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 2 aircraft - ZA216 and ZA217
UAE Presidential Flight (leased from ILFC) - 1 aircraft - ZA560

787-9
787-9 seems to be making fairly good progress and the flight test program is slowly coming up on three full months of flight testing. It is expected that the flight test/certification program will continue for another 3 to 4 months and first delivery to Air New Zealand should occur around July 2014.  The first production 787-9 (ZB197) was rolled out of 40-26 on November 20th and placed inside the Everett Modification Center (EMC).  This aircraft will deliver to ANA probably later in the summer.  The second production aircraft and the first to deliver to the launch customer is ZB003 is still a couple months away from starting final assembly but both these airplanes will be used for F & R (functionality and reliability) testing as well as other FAA mandated tests which needs to be completed on a production standard aircraft.  The three flight test aircraft will be refurbished with 2 going to Air New Zealand and the 3rd (GE-powered) 787-9 flight test aircraft is rumored to be going to Japan Airlines.

Lastly, two 787 that were most recently rolled out the final assembly building in Everett were taken not to the flightline but to the EMC.  There was confusion related to this and many speculated that it is due to some "issues" that the 787 might be experiencing though nothing has come up that would warrant that kind of speculation.  The two aircraft are ZA586 which is another ILFC leased business jet and ZB197, the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA that will be used for testing.  First ZA586 is probably there to get some specialized work down related to its cabin installation after delivery.  Nothing unusual there.  ZB197 is not needed for another couple months and will probably have some minimal flight test equipment installed.  Either way I don't think it's a sign of anything amiss in the 787 program.

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Boeing delivers 9 787s in October, up to 98 total deliveries

Boeing had delivered 9 787s in the month of October and all things considered that was a very good month.  The production test flights in Everett was slowed down by a thick fog that hung around Everett for days and reduced visibility to much less than half a mile.  Certainly not good conditions to fly.  The delays caused by the weather had probably pushed back a few delivery dates to early November for a few Everett built 787s but also a factor was customer readiness to take these airplanes.

Of the notable airlines whose 787s are ready to be delivered to them are China Southern (2 aircraft), Hainan, and Air India. I do think that these aircraft along with one each for JAL and united will be delivered during the first week of November.  There seems to have been a knock on effect of airplanes delivering a little bit later than planned. A number of 78s that were expected to be delivered by late September were delivered in early October.  I expect there to be a similar occurrence this month with the 6 aircraft that have yet to be delivered.

Now that we are closing in on the end of the year, question turns to how many 787 will Boeing eventually deliver to its customers.  As of the end of October Boeing has delivered 49 787s.  This is 3 more than the number they delivered in 2012 and their target still remains above 60.  They can reach that target by the end of November.

Here's how I think November and December will shake out in terms of 787 deliveries:

Air India - 2
ANA - 1
China Southern - 3
Hainan - 3
ILFC/Sky Blue Holdings - 1
ILFC/UAE Presidential Flight - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
Norwegian - 1
QANTAS/Jetstar - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
TUI Travel - 1
United Airlines - 1

This is a total of 19 aircraft that Boeing certainly can deliver within the next two months.  This would bring the total 787s deliveries in 2013 to 68 and 117 overall.  Boeing needs to start clearing out 787s both at Everett and North Charleston as the company prepares to increase the 787 production rate to 10/month in December.

At the same time Boeing also plans on getting the two remaining 787-9s into the flight test program.  Boeing just rolled out the 3rd and final dedicated test flight aircraft, ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB). I expect that this aircraft should fly by late November - early December.  We're still waiting for ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to fly and I suspect that this will occur sometime within the next one week.  ZB001 flew back to Everett a few days ago.  The reason is unknown but I am guessing that it can be so Boeing can change out some flight test equipment before resuming flight tests.  To date, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) has accumulated over 150 flight test hours (I'm using Flightaware as my source).  However, by the end of the year all three 787-9 flight test airframes should be deep into the flight test program and recording an increasing number of hours. I expect the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand by about April of next year.

Finally, I'd like to leave you all with an idea you all might want to try in your spare time:

To do list: go to a bank wearing a ski mask. Complete a normal transaction. Leave as if nothing happened.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) November 2, 2013

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Boeing equals 2012 787 delivery total.

Mid way through October Boeing has delivered 46 787s which is the same number that they delivered in all of 2012.  They've made great progress in bouncing back from the battery issues that grounded the world wide fleet and halted deliveries.  Through Oct. 6th, Boeing has delivered 95 787s and looks to deliver the 100th 787 later this month. Which one will get that honor is up in the air but it should still happen this month as there are several 787s that are in the middle or have completed their production testing.

Given we're at month end I think there is a little bit more clarity to the delivery schedule for the rest of this month.  So far in October Boeing has delivered 6 787 including 4 from Charleston.  Boeing, I believe, can deliver another 6 to 8 aircraft as follows:

ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) to Japan Airlines
ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) to Air India
ZA381 (LN 36, B-2726) to China Southern Airlines
ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) to Hainan Airlines
ZA386 (LN 104, B-2737) to China Southern Airlines
ZA562 (LN 122, N964AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA563 (LN 127, N965AM) to ILFC/Aeromexico*
ZA446 (LN 130, V8-DLB) to Royal Brunei Airlines

* Dependent on US Govt. shutdown

While it looks good that the US government may reopen as early as tomorrow this could help with the deliveries to US-based buyers like ILFC.  ZA562's deliver, it seems, has been delayed as the FAA's registration office in Wichita, KS has remained closed because of the budget debacle.

While Boeing has been pretty aggressive with conducting production flights for the first half of the month, things seems to have quieted down in the last couple of days indicating that Boeing may be making taking some corrective action on the airplanes that they have flown before conducting customer acceptance flights or are preparing for those customer flights which would get underway shortly.  Additionally, Boeing is preparing to fly the second 787-9 (ZB002, LN 133, N789FT) within the next week though no date has been given. So far the 787-9 test program has accumulated just under 94 flight test hours.

Looking ahead, it seems that Boeing might be gearing up to increase 787 output per their plan.  10/month by the end of the year is still their goal and they seem to be on the verge of achieving it. Sources have told me that LN 158 will be the first airframe that will be produced at 10/month.  This aircraft is slated to be built in Charleston.  Boeing appears to be loading a 787 frame into position 1 every 14 to 16 days.  Extrapolated this would mean that ZA244 (LN 158, VT-ANP) should load (and Boeing would start producing 10/month) around December 8th.  Boeing is quickening the production rate which did slow down due to the 787-9 flight test aircraft assembly.

Lastly, with the government shutdown seemingly coming to an end, I'd like to leave you all with this:

So... the good news is that you're getting the government back, and the bad news is that you're getting THAT government back.
— SarcasticRover (@SarcasticRover) October 16, 2013

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Boeing makes big push for 100 Dreamliner deliveries and a record number of 787 deliveries this month; 2nd 787-9 poised to join flight test effort

Boeing is conducting an aggressive effort to deliver a large number of 787s this month.  Even before mid month Boeing has delivered 5 787s many of these a spillover from September when they were expected to be delivered.  Through today, October 11th, 2013, Boeing has delivered 94 Dreamliners and will more than likely deliver it 100th 787 later this month.  Right now it's way to early to speculate to whom the 100 delivered 787 will go to as it depends on the progress of production flights.

Undeniably Boeing has been making a big push to deliver as many 787s as possible.  Today, alone there were 4 test flights including 2 B-1 flight.  A third was scheduled but didn't fly.  There are 3 Dreamliners that appear to be ready for delivery including the 6th for China Southern and the 2nd for Aeromexico.  One factor that can hinder deliveries, at least to US owners, is the continuing government shutdown.  While Boeing has the FAA inspectors back on the job at Charleston, the FAA still does not have its employees back in the office that process the aircraft registration and title transfers.  Boeing said that they can be mailed in but there still may be some delays due to the shutdown.  Deliveries to ILFC and United can be affected as well as to US based BBJ customers, for one of whom there is an aircraft about to start assembly.  Given the progression here's how I see the remainder of October shaking out in terms of 787 deliveries:

China Southern - 2 (1 each from Charleston and Everett)
Japan Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (from Charleston)
Qatar Airways - 1 (from Charleston)
ILFC/Aeromexico - 2 (from Everett, dependent on government shutdown)
Royal Brunei Airlines - 1 (from Everett)
United Airlines - 1 (from Charleston, dependent on government shutdown)

Other deliveries that may take place this month:
Air India (from Everett)
Japan Airlines (from Charleston)

Deliveries from Charleston have resumed after almost 3 months which is very good news.  Between September 30th and Oct. 9th, the Charleston facility delivered 4 787s and can deliver anywhere from 3 to 5 more this month which will help tremendously with the inventory there.  What will be interesting to see is whether Boeing can bring down the number of production test flights required for the Charleston built 787s.  The aircraft that were delivered recently needed many more flights than the ones built at Everett but this is probably attributable to Charleston still trying to ramp up the learning curve.  As time goes on the build quality should improve.  Everett wen through the same thing with some of the early delivered 787s.

Lastly the second 787-9 is getting close to making its first flight and joining its sister-ship at Boeing Field for test and certification activities.  ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) was just moved from the fuel dock at Everett to a stall space on the flightline.  It should fly by Oct. 24th if it encounters no issues on pre-flight ground testing that should commence shortly.  To put the schedule in perspective.  It took ZB001 (LN 126, N787EX) 24 days from roll out to first flight.  ZB002 rolled out on September 30th and applying the same metric to this aircraft should give a first flight date of around Oct. 24th.  I do expect it to fly earlier than that as Boeing has improved knowledge from the ZB001's pre-flight.  Again this all assumes that ZB002 doesn't have any issues in the run up to first flight.  Another interesting stat is that ZB001 took 86 days in final assembly including painting and installation of test equipment.  ZA002 improved that number by 6 days to a total of 80 days in final assembly.  Boeing should be able to apply lessons learned from the first aircraft to get the 2nd aircraft up sooner.  We'll know by the 24th.

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Everett has a busy day with locally built 787s, Charleston silent

Today was a busy day for the 787s at Everett with a couple of deliveries and a few test flights that is setting up for more deliveries in the coming couple of weeks.

Boeing started out the day by delivering 2 787s, one to ILFC for Aeromexico (ZA561) and one to Thomson (ZA320)).  The 787 for Air India (ZA242) which I reported as delivered yesterday will actually be delivered on Monday August 19 and flown to India on August 20th.  To date Boeing has delivered (not counting the Air India jet) 76 with 3 coming this month so far. 

there were quite few test runs today with two aircraft performing both Boeing and customer test flights on the same day.  This indicates that Boeing is trying to fast track the aircraft for delivery later this month (perhaps next week).  ZA577 (for ILFC/Norwegian), ZA122 (ANA) and ZA383 (China Southern) all flew today with the later two doing customer flights.  ZA452 (British Airways) was to conduct a re-run of its aborted B-1 flight but the pilots apparently could not start one of the engines...not good.

ZA452 G-ZBJC flite delayed unable to start one engine
— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) August 16, 2013

I guess they'll try again tomorrow. Boeing is aiming for a significant number of deliveries, it seems, from Everett. Here are the delivereis that I think will be made over the next 2 weeks:

Japan Airlines : ZA186
ANA: ZA121, ZA122
China Southern: ZA383
Air India: ZA242
British Airways: ZA452
Norwegian/ILFC: ZA577

It is possible, if Charleston is able to, to have a couple more deliveries:

Qatar Airways: ZA467
LAN: ZA539

Totally, Boeing has the ability to deliver 12 total this month but some of this depends on what shows up during the customer flights and if Charleston will able to start to deliver aircraft.  Through all the 787 activity of the past few weeks, very little has come out of Charleston.  Indeed, of the 9 787s that are complete (including one that is in Ft. Worth being painted) none of these airplanes have had a customer flight in preparation for delivery.  The silence from Charleston has been deafening but it may not be entirely there fault.  They are saddled with 6 787s that are to be delivered to three problem child airlines (Air India, China Southern and Hainan Airlines).  The coming week should reveal more in terms of activity at Charleston.

Lastly, I've updated the tables with the most current information that I have available including the load dates for ZA321 (September 3) and ZB021 (August 21).  Interestingly, Boeing is increasing he number of days between airframes in 40-26.  The time between loading ZA216 for Jetstar  and ZA650 is 12 days.  The number of days between ZA650 and ZA321 is 15 days (including one day for the US Labor Day holiday).  I suspect when Boeing get the inventory down at Everett and Charleston we should see a return to the days where Boeing was loading a 787 every 5.5 days at Everett.  Don't even ask me about Charleston.


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