January 2017 787 Mid Month Report

-->

	Number
Testing Complete	3
To be assembled in Everett	139
To be assembled in Charleston	101
Parts Arriving	6
Undergoing final assembly	9
Storage	0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work	0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work	2
Pre-Flight Prep	5
Production Testing	6
Non Customer Flight Tests	1
Ready for Delivery	5
Donation	3
Delivered	507
TOTAL	787

Ok so we're well past mid month but I did start this post about a week ago so I guess that still counts.

So far so good with deliveries thus far in 2017.  Boeing has handed the keys to 7 Dreamliners thus far and has completed customer flights on another 5 most (if not all) should be delivered by the end of this week.  The customers that have taken possession include American, United, Air India, Aeromexico, Etihad, Air Canada, and Hainan. All but 1 were 787-9.  In the next 4 days additional 787s will be turned over to Royal Jordanian (787-8), American Airlines, Xiamen, Air Canada, and AerCap (lsd to Latam).  All but RJA are 787-9s.  Boeing is already up to 507 total deliveries thus far.

787 production is starting to ramp back up after the holidays and while it appears that Everett production is almost back to where it should be, Charleston is going to be a little lower as they work on the first 787-10. In fact the Charleston plan is not due to roll out another 787 until February 8 which is a month after it most recent roll out on January 9.  Again this is all due to the start of 787-10 production and the diverting of of several 787 production to Everett to avoid disruption in the production and delivery of customer aircraft.  Boeing Charleston has now begun using the newly completed paint hangars when ZB451 (LN517, N825AAA) for American Airlines was rolled into Bay 1.  Currently it appears that Boeing is using Bay 1 and not Bay 2 yet as they're still flying the occasional 787 to Louisiana for painting.  It may be that Boeing has to finish installation of equipment in that Bay.  Currently Boeing is looking to roll out 6 787s while starting assembly on another 6.  Charleston has rolled out 2 and will start assembly on a further 4 aircraft.  Amazingly, because of the increase in the number of aircraft that Everett has to produce due to the 787-10 production introduction, the Washington final assembly line is taking 16 to 17 days to build a 787!  I'm not sure if that is sustainable but after the second 787-10 is built, I believe that Boeing will then return the Charleston plant to it's normal operating output but that probably won't be until March or April at the earliest.

787 Current Production Table
787 Full Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2017 Projected Operator Deliveries
2017 Projected Customer Deliveries
2016 Projected Operator Deliveries
2016 Projected Customer Deliveries
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

Boeing officially reports 135 787 deliveries in 2015

On Thursday, Boeing reported delivering 135 787 during the past year exceeding it's guidance of more than 120 deliveries.  A year ago I had predicted that Boeing would deliver 138 787s so it was very close.

In December, Boeing delivered 9 787:  3 787-8 and 6 787-9s.  All these airplanes were delivered just before Christmas as Boeing went on its annual Holiday shutdown.  During the same time 11 787s were rolled out in order to be prepared for delivery in the coming months.  Because of the Holiday Season, Boeing will roll out only 9 787s but have tentatively scheduled deliveries of 10 Dreamliners as well as starting the final assembly on 8 other 787s.

Boeing also booked 2 787-9 in December but also saw a reduction of 2 787-10 that were on order from United Airlines.  Now, curiously, the firing order shows one additional 787-9 for United Airlines (they have 18 on order with 13 delivered but 6 787-9s in the firing order).  It may be possible that United converted 2 -10 into -9 but the -9 just haven't showed up on the order table just as yet.

Deliveries this month tentatively include:

3 x 787-9 to Saudi Arabian Airlines
1 787-9 each to Vietnam Airlines (leased from AerCap), United Airlines, British Airways, LAN and Virgin Atlantic Airlines
1 787-8 each to Japan Airlines and Qatar Airways

Some of these aircraft have yet to be painted (3rd Saudi Arabian and Qatar) and one has yet to fly its B-1 flight (British Airways) with 3 weeks left in the month.

Later this month Boeing will have it's 4th quarter earnings conference call and I expect that they will shed some light on 787 delivery guidance as well as program profitability and, more importantly, the progress on reducing deferred production costs.

This is my first post in 2016 and I only has one post last month due to being on vacation.  However I did manage to get some pictures and video of 787s abroad:

Air India 787-8 at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, Ahmedabad, India. Registration Unknown, an IL-76 of the Indian Air Force is behind.

Air India 787-8 at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, Ahmedabad, India. Registration Unknown, an IL-76 of the Indian Air Force is behind.

Air India 787-8 at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, Ahmedabad, India. Registration Unknown, an IL-76 of the Indian Air Force is behind.

Air India 787-8 at Indira Gandhi International Airport, Delhi, India, Reg. VT-AND, Air India's 2nd Dreamliner

Air India 787-8 at Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, Ahmedabad, India. Registration Unknown, an IL-76 of the Indian Air Force is behind.

Air India 787-8 at Indira Gandhi International Airport, Delhi, India, Reg. VT-AND, Air India's 2nd Dreamliner

Air India 787-8 at Indira Gandhi International Airport, Delhi, India, Reg. VT-AND, Air India's 2nd Dreamliner

Air India 787-8 at Indira Gandhi International Airport, Delhi, India, Reg. VT-AND, Air India's 2nd Dreamliner

Etihad Airways 787-9, Registration: A6-BLE at Abu Dhabi International Airport

Etihad Airways 787-9, Registration: A6-BLE at Abu Dhabi International Airport

Abu Dhabi Amiri Flight 747-8I, Reg.: A6-PFA at Abu Dhabi International Airport

Abu Dhabi Amiri Flight 777-300ER, Reg.: A6-SIL at Abu Dhabi International Airport

Abu Dhabi Amiri Flight 777-300ER and 787-8 behind it (reg.: A6-PFC) at Abu Dhabi International Airport

My video taken Abu Dhabi International Airport at take off.  In it you will see an Etihad 787-9, Abu Dhabi Amiri Flight 787-8 and 747-8I as well as the new terminal that is being constructed.

787 Progress Report - March 25, 2015

Deliveries of 787s are still slow though this month but hopefully should start to pick up with 6 days left in the 1st quarter.  Thus far, Boeing has delivered 5 787s: 4 787-9s and 1 787-8 including the 1st 787-9 to be assembled at the North Charleston plant.  The latest delivery was a 787-9 delivered to AerCap on behalf of LAN who will operate it.  I expect that Boeing should be able to deliver 6 more 787s this month.

Production has been moving along without any overt signs of issues and each aircraft going through Everett still makes a stop on the 40-51 ramp to finish minor assembly tasks and for some to have their seats installed.

However flight testing activity has been noticeably thin over the last 2 to 3 weeks.  There are a couple of 787s that are scheduled to be delivered this month but have not flown their customer flights.  It maybe indicative that some customers are not yet ready to take delivery of their aircraft.

There's also been a lot of buzz about American Airlines 787 deliveries or lack thereof.  It does seem that the production issues with the Zodiac seats are persisting and are not only affecting Boeing or 787 deliveries but are impacting different aircraft and manufacturers (Airbus and Boeing).  That said, American has publicly stated that revenue flights won't start until May and the 2 airplanes that they have taken delivery are being used to train their pilots.  It doesn't make sense for AA to take delivery of more 787s if they don't intend to introduce them into revenue service within one month of taking possession.  Thus I don't see any more 787 deliveries until late April at the earliest.  The 2 AA 787s that have flown but not delivered are, I believe, fully outfitted with their seats.

Hainan Airlines announced in a public filing with the Shanghai Stock Exchange today that they intend to purchase 30 787-9s.  However, I believe that these 30 787-9s will be a mix of purchase and leased 787-9.  LN 430 (ZB763) is an aircraft earmarked for Air Lease Corp. (owned by Steven Udvar Hazy) and leased to Hainan Airlines.  ALC has 15 787-9s on order with Boeing so I wouldn't be surprised if the final order is 15 leased from ALC and 15 new 787-9 from Boeing. An article by Jon Ostrower in the Wall Street Journal says that deliveries are to start in 2021 and these slots were some of United Airlines 787-9 slots which are being given up in exchange for the 777-300ER order that UAL intends to place with Boeing.  These slots were initially offered to American Airlines which turned them down as they are focused on introducing the 787-8 into the fleet (replacing 767-200).

Air China is expecting to take delivery of its first Trent powered 787-9 (LN 419, ZB047) next year as well as part of their order of 15 aircraft.  In a bit of disappointing news, it seems that Rwandair will be buying 2 A330s instead of the 787. The carrier had options on 2 787s which were expected to be exercised for two of the "terrible teens" that are sitting on the Everett runway.  Rumor is that Ethiopian came in with a higher bid for these aircraft.  Another rumor is that EVA Air is in the final stages of buying the 787-10 as well as 777F.  The number of each is unknown.  If true it would be a huge boost for the 787-10 which hasn't received an order since early last year and a 3 plane commitment from ANA.

Lastly, a personal note from me.

I've started this blog almost 7 years ago and I've been complimented by many readers over the years and I certainly appreciate it.  The highest form of flattery is when people start to imitate you or cite the information that is in this blog, However there are certain individuals who have used the information in my posts or in the tables I have created without giving proper credit and have passed it on as if it is their own.  I have struggled to figure out want to do including communicating with the offenders but they have continued to steal my information.  I am considering making this a pay site but have not reached a definitive decision as of yet and not sure if that would solve the problem.  My intention for a long time was to just have a free blog that enthusiasts will enjoy reading but it seems that a few bad apples are intent on ruining this for their own gain.  I will keep you all apprised of my final decision regarding this blog.  Thank you for reading!

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

January 2015 787 Delivery and Production Report

Boeing had a disappointing month as far as 787 deliveries goes.  Internally, Boeing is looking at 138 deliveries (publicly they gave their guidance as 124-127) which translates to 11.5 deliveries per month in 2015.  In January Boeing delivered only 7 787 to customers, far fewer than what is needed.  Annualized this would represent only 84 deliveries.  It is the beginning of the new year and Boeing has been a bit slow to ramp up activities after the Holiday season but they will need to make a much stronger showing in February and March.  The efficiency ratio was 1.43 which is way too high as deliveries did not match the number of aircraft rolled out.

The company did roll out 10 787s from it's 3 final assembly lines and started final assembly on a further 11 787 air frames to the flightlines though a number of them had to go the EMC.

According to the most latest information that I have, there are 15 787s tentatively scheduled for delivery in February including a number that were to be delivered in January.  It is highly doubtful that Boeing will deliver this number of 787s and I believe that in the best case scenario, they will deliver 11 to 13. Up to 6 of these deliveries would be the 787-9 including LAN's first -9 (via lease from AerCap).

Production rate is holding steady and it has taken Boeing an average of 102 days to build, test and deliver 787s (based on January deliveries not including outliers) last month.  Boeing needed an average of 5 test flights per delivered aircraft to complete the delivery process.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Mid month report - January, 2015

Mid way through the 1st month of 2015, Boeing is setting it self up to deliver 10 787s. On the surface that may look like a good number especially when compared to January, 2014. However because several 787s that were supposed to be delivered late last year had been rescheduled to this month, there are expectations the deliveries in January were going to be higher than 10.  Earlier information that was received indicated 12 deliveries in January but now those deliveries were pushed to later in the first quarter.  Boeing needs to deliver a minimum of 11.5 787s per month for 2015 if it is to achieve its internal goal of delivering 138 787s.  As I had said in a previous post, I doubt that Boeing will be able to deliver 138 787s and the final number will most likely be between 125 to 130.

Thus far there are about 5 aircraft that are ready for delivery but there are also 1 more that need to conduct its B-1 flight which is a 787-9 for Virgin Atlantic and a 4 others that have yet to conduct their C-1 flights.  With 12 days left in the month it is possible for Boeing to all these aircraft tested and delivered but it will be cutting it close.  I do expect the first 787 deliveries of 2015 to start this coming week, thus again Boeing is making all its 787 deliveries in the last half of the month.

The customers that will be be receiving their first 787s include American Airlines and Scoot while AerCap (LAN) will be taking its first 787-9.

Line Number	Variable Number	Serial Number	Registration	787 Model	Customer	Operator	Delivery Date
240	ZB127	37112	9V-OJA	787-9	Scoot Pte Ltd	Scoot Pte Ltd	1/23/2015
241	ZA817	40618	N800AN	787-8	American Airlines	American Airlines	1/22/2015
250	ZA248	36291	VT-ANT	787-8	Air India	Air India	1/30/2015
252	ZA198	34853	JA839J	787-8	Japan Airlines	Japan Airlines	1/22/2015
254	ZA616	35263	C-GHQQ	787-8	Air Canada	Air Canada	1/30/2015
256	ZB029	37968	G-VOOH	787-9	Virgin Atlantic Airways	Virgin Atlantic Airways	1/30/2015
257	ZA222	36235	VH-VKI	787-8	QANTAS	Jetstar	1/26/2015
258	ZA846	36111	ET-ASG	787-8	AerCap	Ethiopian Airlines	1/30/2015
259	ZB224	35317	CC-BGA	787-9	AerCap	LAN	1/30/2015
260	ZA323	36426	G-TUIG	787-8	TUI Travel	Thomson	1/29/2015

In terms of production Boeing is well situated to roll out 10 787s (7 from Everett and 3 form North Charleston).  They are also starting final assembly on 10 787s this month with the same number as roll outs from each final assembly locations.

Interestingly, Boeing is looking to deliver 3 787-9 this month as well as roll out 3 and start final assembly of 3 787-9s this month.  I'll keep an eye on this but it does seem that for now, Boeing is going to keep the rate on the 787-9 at 3/month

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

2015 Look Ahead for the 787

With 2014 firmly in the rear view mirror, we can start looking ahead at what's next for the 787 program.

According to sources, Boeing is planning for 138 deliveries.  Given they just finished a year where program execution was not good, the prospect of Boeing hitting 138 deliveries is a little far fetched.  They would need to execute final assembly perfectly and drive down  assembly to delivery times.  In December, if the delivery outliers (namely aircraft going to Avianca, Etihad and Azerbaijan Airways) are taken out, then Boeing was able to assemble and delivery the 787 at an average of 107 days.  This is much to long if they intend to increase the number of deliveries in 2015.  In my view Boeing should be able to deliver around 125 to 130 787s.  I'll track their progress vs. the 138 plan deliveries and their delivery guidance for 2015 as it can help gauge how well the production system is working especially in terms of their internal goals.

2015 will be notable year for a few reason.  First there will be customers taking deliveries of their first 787s as well as existing operators taking delivery of their first 787-9.  Last year Boeing managed to deliver 10 787-9.  In the new year Boeing expects to deliver a significant number of the enlarged version of the aircraft.  The expectation is for 64 deliveries of the 787-9 which will help profitability of the 787 program overall.

Here is a list of operators who will be receiving their first 787 this year:

1st Time 787 Operator

American Airlines

Kalair (Bermuda)

Korean Air

Oman Air

PrivatAir

KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines

Saudi Arabian Airlines

Scoot Pte Ltd

Tuifly Nordic

Vietnam Airlines

An a list of operators who will be receiving their first 787-9:

1st Time 787-9 Operator

Air Canada

British Airways

Japan Airlines

Kalair (Bermuda)

LAN

KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines

Saudi Arabian Airlines

Scoot Pte Ltd

Vietnam Airlines

Obviously some of these deliveries had rolled over from last year, namely American Airlines, Korean Air, and Scoot.

However, the overriding theme of the year will not just be making timely deliveries but also trying to further reduce the cost of the 787 program and that starts with reducing deferred production costs and trying to cap it at the current $25.2bn level.

Finally here's a projection of the 2015 operator deliveries:

Projected 2015 Deliveries (Operator)	Expected Total Deliveries	Actual Deliveries	Exp.Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Actual Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Expected 787-8 Deliveries	Actual 787-8 Deliveries	Expected 787-9 Deliveries	Actual 787-9 Deliveries
Aeroméxico	3				3
Air Canada	5				2		3
Air India	4				4
Air New Zealand	3						3
American Airlines	12				12
ANA	10				3		7
Arke	1				1
Avianca	3				3
British Airways	5						5
Ethiopian Airlines	3				3
Etihad Airways	4						4
Hainan Airlines	2				2
His Majesty The Sultan's Flight	1				1
Japan Airlines	6				4		2
Jetstar	4				4
Kalair (Bermuda)	1						1
Kenya Airways	3				3
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines	2						2
Korean Air	1		1		1
LAN	7						7
Norwegian Air International Ltd	1				1
Oman Air	2				2
PrivatAir	1				1
Qatar Airways	7				7
Royal Air Maroc	1				1
Saudi Arabian Airlines	1						1
Scoot Pte Ltd	10				4		6
TBD	3		3		3
Thai Airways International	2				2
Thomson	1				1
Tuifly Nordic	2				2
United Airlines	11						11
Vietnam Airlines	5						5
Virgin Atlantic Airways	7						7
Xiamen Airlines	4				4
Total	138	0	4	0	74	0	64	0

And a list of 2015 customer deliveries:

Projected 2015 Deliveries (Customer)	Expected Total Deliveries	Actual Deliveries	Exp.Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Actual Pre-L/N 66 Deliveries	Expected 787-8 Deliveries	Actual 787-8 Deliveries	Expected 787-9 Deliveries	Actual 787-9 Deliveries
AerCap	12				5		7
Aeroméxico	1				1
Air Canada	5				2		3
Air India	4				4
Air New Zealand	3						3
American Airlines	12				12
ANA	10				3		7
Avianca	3				3
BBJ	1				1
British Airways	5						5
CIT Leasing	2				2
Etihad Airways	4						4
Hainan Airlines	2				2
Japan Airlines	6				4		2
Kalair (Bermuda)	1						1
Kenya Airways	3				3
Korean Air	1		1		1
LAN	2						2
Norwegian Air International Ltd	1				1
Oman Air	2				2
PrivatAir	1				1
QANTAS	4				4
Qatar Airways	7				7
Royal Air Maroc	1				1
Saudi Arabian Airlines	1						1
Scoot Pte Ltd	10				4		6
TBD	3		3		3
TUI Travel	4				4
United Airlines	11						11
Vietnam Airlines	5						5
Virgin Atlantic Airways	7						7
Xiamen Airlines	4				4
Total	138	0	4	0	74	0	64	0

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries