787 July 2015 Mid Month Update

Now that the second half of the year is underway, we should expect to see some changes in the 787 program the most visible of which is the production taper of 787 temporary surge line in Everett.  Last month there were 3 787s loaded into the Surge position 1 to start final assembly.  Starting this month Boeing will load only one 787 into the surge line in building 40-24 and that will come at the end of the month for the next four months.  40-24 is going to be a very lonely place until 777X production get started in three years.

The 2 787s from surge production are being allocated one each to the main lines in Everett 40-26 and North Charleston 88-30.  In fact North Charleston production is already very busy with 8 airplanes on the final assembly floor and another 6 on the flightline.

Boeing can deliver a total of 12 787s this month,  8 787-8 and 4 787-9.  I expect that there can be up to 6 deliveries in July from North Charleston including one 787-8 for PrivatAir that was assembled At Everett but ferried to South Carolina.  One 787-8 for Kenya Airways was supposed to be delivered in June but was held up at the request of the customer for unknown reasons.  Sources say that this airplane should be delivered this month which would be the 6th delivery out of North Charleston.  Some notable deliveries would include the first 787-8 for Scoot and Vietnam's first 787-9 as well as the aforementioned first 787-8 for PrivatAir.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787, both to Jetstar.

Thus far through today, July 15, 2015, Boeing has delivered 2 787s this month, 66 in 2015 and 294 total since deliveries began in September 2011.

There was some good news and some potentially not so good news for the 787 program.  First the not so good news.  Zodiac Aerospace has more trouble again when an explosion occurred (a possible chemical explosion) at its interior fabrication plant in Newport, Washington.  Both Boeing and Airbus are reviewing the impact to their production lines but I do believe that this will impact Boeing more than Airbus.  It is unclear if it will impact 787 deliveries at this point.

The good news for the 787 program is that the 787-10 has completed its CDR (critical design review) and is on its way to having 90% of detailed engineering drawings completed by the end of the year.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 Dreamliner 2015 mid year report

2015 so far is a good year for the 787.  Midway through 2015 Boeing has delivered 64 787 including 23 787-9.  In June Boeing delivered 10 787 - 6 787-9 and 4 787-8.  One the production front, the program loaded 64 different air frames to start final assembly and rolled out 63 by June 30th.

In terms of efficiency, the Everett lines were slightly more efficient at a ratio of 0.96 for the first half of 2015 versus North Charleston at 1.05.  June was not a very efficient month for North Charleston as its efficiency ratio in June was 2.0 versus Everett at 0.88.  For North Charleston the score was skewed by 4 deliveries made in May and only 2 in June while production rate was around 3 and 4 respectively.  In other words there was an extra delivery made in May and I suspect there will be 4 deliveries from North Charleston in July.

With quarter end there usually is a push to get as many airplanes delivered as possible but Boeing 787 deliveries from May to June were down from 13 to 10.  While still respectable, the 787 delivery number was hurt by continued issues with seat installations in airplanes destined for American Airlines and Etihad Airways.  Additionally, the change in production rate in Charleston may have slowed things a bit as Boeing is being careful with the break in rate at both 787 lines now that the surge line is winding down.

Speaking of the surge line, there are only 4 more 787 air frames that are scheduled to be built on that line.  Boeing will now slow that line down to a point where only 1 787 will be loaded each month from July to October (there were 3 loaded in June). With the 2 surge air frames now going to 40-26 and 88-30.  There will be an increase in the number of air frames on the Charleston flight line as there is a transition time where deliveries will have to catch up to the production rate.  This may not happen until the end of the summer.

For the last half of this year, expect that 787-9 deliveries will outnumber 787-8 deliveries which is expected as there are over 475 787-9 to be delivered against just under 200 787-8.  In fact June 2015 was the first month where 787-9 deliveries did outnumber 787-8 deliveries as mentioned earlier.  I expect this trend to more or less continue each month.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing to shut down 787 surge line by year end to take advantage of production efficiencies; start up 777X production

On Friday Boeing announced the decision to shut down the 787 temporary surge line in Everett and move the assembly of airplanes from that line to the main lines in 40-26 and 88-30.  By the end of the year both lines will be producing 5 787 per month.

The decision to close it down is certainly not a shock but to shut it early was a surprise.  Efficiency gains that were realized earlier than expected on both the Charleston and Everett lines allowed for cost reduction that come with merging the three lines into 2.  Boeing figured that it now costs less to produce 10 airplanes in 2 line than it does on 3 lines.  Boeing will start converting the line to in order to do assembly activities on the 777X which is slated to start production around 2017-2018.

The switch over will down gradually over the next 6 months.  Charleston should be at 4 by the start of July while 40-26 will be producing 5 and 40-24 will be at 1.  By November, the switch over from 40-24 to 40-26 and 88-30 should be complete. The last 787 to be built on the TSL will load around October and in November all future assembly activities will be done either on 40-26 or 88-30. ZB236 (LN 381) will be the last aircraft built on 40-24.  This airplane is for AerCap and being leased to KLM.

Boeing started production on the 40-24 surge line in the 3rd quarter 2012 as means to reduce schedule risk associated with opening the Charleston line as well as a means to catch up on deliveries delayed by the repeated Dreamliner production issues.  The line no has fulfilled its mission and 40-24 will now be used to support production of early 777X airplanes.

Beverly Wyse's statement to BSC employees regarding the surge line shutdown:

Today Boeing Commercial Airplanes announced that we’ve finalized plans to close the Everett 787 Dreamliner Temporary Surge Line (TSL) later this year to allow the 777X Program to transition into the factory space currently occupied by the TSL and begin production preparations for the 777X. We are confident that the timing is right for this transition, and our ability to do so this year is a testament to our teams’ capabilities. 

With the phasing out of the TSL, BSC Final Assembly will produce five additional airplanes, meaning that we will transition to our Final Assembly production rate of five per month earlier than planned.

We continue to work on improvement with some of our suppliers, and we’re confident in your ability to execute this plan. I am committed to insuring that BSC remains stable and that we follow our site overtime guidelines so our teammates enjoy time off with their families. 

This is great news for our site further demonstrates the very high level of confidence that the Boeing executive leadership team has in your abilities. Boeing South Carolina has quickly earned a reputation for successfully rising to any challenge with our “Bring it On” attitude, and if any team can do this -- and do it successfully, it’s you! 

As always, thank you for your hard work and dedication!

Beverly 

The 6 787-8 that were ordered from an unidentified customer late last month will be coming from the lot of early build 787s (also known as the "Terrible Teens").  The customer ordered Roll Royce engines throwing into doubt about who is the end user.  I had speculated that the order is for Ethiopian or a lessor with a n agreement to lease the airplanes to Ethiopian given the news over the past month or so.  However, Ethiopian's current fleet of 787s use GEnx engines.  IT's still very possible that the airplanes can end up with Ethiopian who don't mind using the Trent-1000 engines.

From the firing order it also appears that TUI Travel has ordered the 787-9.  It's still too early to know how many but the order must be one of the unidentified 787-9 orders that is listed on Boeing's order and delivery web site (there are 4 separate orders).  Also on the firing order is 2 additional 787-9 for united Airlines (LN 443 and LN 445).  They had recently reduced their 787-9 order to 16 so I believe the changes hadn't made it way through the system.  I fully expect that LN 443 and LN 445 will be allocated to another 787-9 customer within the next couple of months.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing starting to push 787 output rate higher; Fog lifts (for now) in Everett

According to the firing order for Everett, Boeing is planning to gradually increase the production rate at Everett using both the permanent and surge line.  Boeing had placed 4 current in production 787s on the surge line in 40-24 leaving open the first two positions on the main final assembly line in 40-26 open.  The last two positions are occupied with ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) and ZA560 (LN 141).  This allows Boeing to increase the production rate without impacting any upstream or downstream airframes.  Starting next week, Boeing will be loading a 787 every 4 to 6 days.  In 40-26 the period between loadings looks to be about 10 days while in 40-24 the period between loadings appears to be about 10 to 11 days.  This means that a 787 should be going through each line in about 40 days or less.  When Boeing loads a 787 every 3.5 days in Everett (between both main and surge lines) they will be hitting a rate of about 8.5 787s per month which coupled with the 1.5/month from Charleston allows the 787 program to attain the 10/month.  I think they'll still achieve this rate sometime in early to mid December.

The air around Everett is getting clearer, literally.  Everett has been plagued by a constant bank of fog over the past few days which has severally limited test flight operations of the 787.  It hasn't had an effect on flights from Boeing Field as ZB001 continues to fly from that airport.

Today alone Boeing sent up 5 production 787s from Everett and was planning to send a sixth one up on its first (B-1) flight. This airplane was ZA435 (LN 131, B-2731) and is slated for delivery to Hainan Airlines sometime next month.  Boeing is appearing to make a huge last push to get at 5 to 8 deliveries done by end of the month and it does seem plausible that they can do it. If they were to do this then they can at least match the most 787 deliveries in one month if not surpass it. They would also deliver the 100th 787 to a customer.  We'll know by next Friday if they were able to attain this.

In closing let me leave you with one last thought:

Always be yourself. Unless you can be Batman.. Then be Batman.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) October 25, 2013

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

787 June 30, 2013 update

At the end of the 1st quarter 2013, Boeing was struggling to re-right the 787 ship in light of the lithium ion battery issues which had forced a grounding of the aircraft.  One quarter later the ship is righted and with it the deliveries have re-commenced.  Boeing had several Dreamliners waiting for delivery when the FAA had lifted the grounding.  Boing delivered 7 aircraft in May and 9 in June with delivery later in the summer poised to be at higher rates. 

Production did slow down as Boeing had spent most of this month in reconfiguring and reconstructing the main 787 final assembly line in building 40-26.  Because of this and the Temporary Surge Line in 40-24 being used exclusively for 787-9 final assembly, 787-8 production from Everett was essentially stopped.  Aircraft still rolled off the line as these were loaded prior to June but there won't be too many 787s rolling out in Everett during July.  Still, we should see the 1st 787-9 rolling off the line in July and most 787s coming out of 40-26 or 40-24 were ones that were already assembled but needed to finish some minor assembly tasks during the next one month.

To date Boeing has delivered 17 787s to customers. They have 29 post-L/N 66 Dreamliners waiting for delivery as well which I believe they should deliver by the end of September. Boeing should be able to assemble 24 more 787s through mid November from all three lines.  It takes Boeing about 6 weeks from roll out to deliver the aircraft in to the customer though this varies from customer to customer. Additionally, Boeing should be able to deliver 9 787s from EMC in the next 6 months.  This would total 62 787s delivered in the second half of the year.  Combined with the 17 already delivered and the total project 2013 787 deliveries should be around 79.  This total would not include the 787-9 built this year.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

 

Boeing planning to increase 787 production to 5/month in September

Boeing execs revealed to reporters that the company is planning to increase the production rate of the 787 from the current 3.5/month to the planned 5/month starting in September. Flightglobal reporter Ghim Lay Yeo promptly Tweeted the comments about the production rate increase. It is not known which plant would see the increase but given that Boeing has activated the surge line in Everett and that some suppliers are are already producing at the higher rate, it's not too much of a surprise that Boeing can increase the rate now that the production system has stabilized. It is not known how Boeing will split the 5/month production between the different facilities but I can see 1/month coming from the surge line, 3/month coming from the main final assembly line in 40-26 and finally a firm rate of 1/month coming from the Charleston assembly line. It is also not known when in September when the rate increase will take effect but I wouldn't be surprised of it happen in the middle to late September.

Boeing spokesperson Scott Lefeber gave this statement without confirming the rate increase:

We plan to complete the next production system rate increase to 5 airplanes per month by the end of the year, tracking as expected to the planned 10 per month program production rate by late 2013.

787 Everett surge line activated

UPDATE: I just got this from Scott Lefeber at Boeing:

Boeing activated the temporary surge line on Aug. 24 by loading the first airplane into final body join. The 787 program is making steady progress toward increasing the production rate from the current 3.5 airplanes per month to 10 per month by the end of 2013.

Boeing has finally activated the 787 surge line for the final assembly of the 787.  The surge line allows Boeing to increase production of the 787 sooner while Boeing Charleston ramps up over the next 16 months to 3 airplanes per month.  Thus far, Boeing plans to deactivate the surge line after Charleston reaches the 3/month output but there are rumblings that the surge line may remain to further push the total 787 output to beyond 10/month.  The surge line was ready early this summer but Boeing opted to use the three position line to conduct change incorporation on the existing assembled 787 inventory.  This allowed Boeing to get more 787s prepared for delivery during this past summer.

The surge line will have three positions each will mirror its counterpart in the existing final assembly line in 40-26 in terms of funcions though it's not exact mirror in terms of the layout, so the work that is done on the airframe in position 1 in 40-26 will be the same that is done in position 1 in 40-24, etc.  The main exception that both lines will share the use of position 4 in 40-26 and position 3 in 40-24 is slanted while the other two positions are in line.

On Friday, ZA538 (LN 80) was loaded into the position 1 in the 40-24 building after ZA500 (LN 11) was cleared from that position and taken to the 40-51 ramp.  There are two other positions in the line for production but currently those spots are being occupied by two other 787s that are undergoing change incorporation.  It is thought that when ZA538 is done with position 1 then ZA505 (LN18) which is currently in position 2 will be moved out to allow final assembly to continue.  The same will be true for position 3 which is currently occupied by ZA285 (LN 45).  After this last plane is cleared from 40-24 the surge line will be a dedicated final assembly line with no change incorporation activities planned to be done on it.  All those activities will continue at the Everett Modification Center.