787 Production Update

Over the next few months Boeing will start final assembly on 787s for Qatar, Korean, United/Continental and Polish Lot Airways. Of the first 57 production 787s to come off the assembly line, ANA will get the most...15 of which 10 are already assembled. This will be followed by 8 for Japan Airlines, 8 for Air India, 5 for United/Continental, 4 for Ethiopian and 3 for China Southern.

Qatar Airways will see it's first 787 assembled by ZA460 (LN 57 or the 57th 787 off the line). Because of the noise tha this airline has created surrounding the delays to their order, Qatar will get 4 787s in quick succession. They will receive the 57th, 58th, 60th and 62nd 787 to be built. Qatar is planning for introduction of these airplanes in 2011. A 787 for LOT will be sandwiched between the two Qatar 787s.

You can see the list below:

The first 43

With Boeing poised to restart final assembly of the 787 I was wondering where the production 787s are heading. I do have a spreadsheet below listing the 787 production and where the individual aircraft are heading. I was only able to get information up to the 49th 787 built (the first 6 are the test flight airplanes with the last three earmarked for customers) but it is interesting where most of the 787s are heading to. Many of the first 43 production airplanes are heading for ANA with Air India taking quite a few as well. Here who getting how many:

ANA - 15 787s
Air India - 10 787s
Japan Airlines - 8 787s
China Southern Airlines - 3 787s
LAN - 2 787s
RAM - 2 787s
Ethiopian Airlines - 2 787s
Continental Airlines - 1 787

Continental first airline to announce 787 route

Today Continetal Airlines announced the first route for a 787. The route will be from Houston to Auckland, New Zealand. Continental plans to operate the route starting Nov. 16, 2011 and they expect to receive their first 787 in August 2011.
Here's CO's press release:

Continental Airlines Announces New Service From Houston Hub to Auckland, New Zealand

First route worldwide to be announced for the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner


HOUSTON, May 26

HOUSTON, May 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) today announced another major step in development of its Houston hub with plans to begin nonstop Boeing 787 flights to Auckland, New Zealand on Nov. 16, 2011 (subject to government approval).


Auckland will be added to the 63 international destinations that Continental
currently serves nonstop from Houston, and will become the 26th destination in Continental's Pacific network. Continental serves more destinations in the Pacific region than any other U.S. carrier.

Continental will be one of just three airlines flying nonstop between North America and New Zealand. At approximately 7,400 miles, the new route will be the longest from Continental's Houston hub. Continental plans to operate the route on a daily basis, with five-times-weekly service during certain periods in the first year of operation.

On May 3, Continental announced that it has agreed to merge with United Airlines in a merger of equals to create the world's leading airline. The success of the Houston Auckland route will be enhanced by the additional traffic flows through Houston that are expected to result from the merger.

First 787 Route Announcement

Continental is the first airline in the world to formally announce specific, initial route plans for its Boeing 787 Dreamliner fleet. The airline has firm orders for 25 Dreamliners. The 787 is a new-technology composite aircraft with lower operating costs, better environmental performance and an improved cabin environment for customer comfort. Deliveries to Continental are expected to begin in August 2011. The aircraft will have 228 seats, including 36 of Continental's new flat-bed BusinessFirst seats for the best rest on long-distance flights.

Today Continental also unveiled a modernized and expanded customer check-in facility in Terminal C at its Houston hub at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

"Our new route to Auckland and our new and upgraded facilities at IAH are tangible examples of the emphasis we place on continuing to expand Houston's role in domestic and international aviation," said Jeff Smisek, Continental's chairman, president and CEO. "This hub has ongoing growth opportunities because it has a strategic location, space for expansion, support from the community and an excellent team of Continental co-workers who deliver our clean, safe and reliable service."

"This new flight between Houston and Auckland shows how the Dreamliner will create new opportunities to connect global markets that currently are not being served," said Mario Diaz, Houston Airport System director of aviation. "As the largest hub for Continental, George Bush Intercontinental Airport is honored to be selected as the launch pad for the Continental Boeing 787."

Convenient Connecting Flights

The Houston-Auckland route will benefit from connecting traffic at both ends. Continental's Houston hub will draw passengers from throughout North America. In addition, Houston will be a very competitive connecting hub for travelers on itineraries between Europe and Auckland.

Auckland is home to Air New Zealand, one of the 27 carriers including Continental which are members of Star Alliance. Air New Zealand and its regional airline partners offer service to 20 destinations in New Zealand and seven in Australia, including Adelaide, Brisbane, Cairns, Coolangatta (Gold Coast), Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.

Schedule

Following is the preliminary schedule for the new service, planned to take effect Nov. 16, 2011. Continental will begin taking reservations and selling tickets on the new route later this year.

Leave Houston Arrive Auckland Leave Auckland Arrive Houston
11:50 a.m. (same Summer 9:30 p.m. 5:10 a.m. (2 days later) 3:40 p.m. day)

11:55 a.m. (same Winter 9:10 p.m. 6:55 a.m. (2 days later) 5:55 p.m. day)

About Auckland and New Zealand

Auckland's waterside location has fostered the locals' love affair with the sea, earning this place the nickname "City of Sails." The city sprawls over a narrow isthmus between the waters of the Waitemata and Manukau Harbours. A cloak of rainforest covers the surrounding hills, dozens of dormant volcanic cones dot the landscape and inviting islands are scattered throughout the vast Hauraki Gulf. Two of the best island getaways are Waiheke Island and Great Barrier Island.

Auckland's heart beats to a Polynesian rhythm, its people a melting pot of European, South Pacific and Asian cultures and a strong indigenous Maori heritage. This diversity brings with it an abundance of unique dining and shopping experiences.

Auckland's temperate climate, easy access to the coast and variety of activities earn the city consistent "top five" rankings in international lifestyle surveys.

New Zealand's awesome landscapes, lush forests, amazing wildlife and pleasant climate make it a haven for many outdoor activities, and a great place to unwind. New Zealand society is diverse, sophisticated and multicultural and the Kiwi people are known for their honesty, friendliness and openness. A great advantage of New Zealand is that all of its diverse physical, cultural and artistic landscapes are so close to each other.

UA/CO Merger - My take on it's future fleet

With so much to take in with the UA-CO merger here's my quick take on their fleet composition...at the end of the day United is going to have a mix fleet of Boeing and Airbus. They'll keep the 787NG and the A320s in their fleet and I expect that all the current narrowbody orders will be kept intact.

I do think however that between the two fleets there will be a change in the widebody orders that are currently on the books.There are still 3 777-200ERs (for CO) as well as the the 787s and A350s:
3 x 777-200ER (CO)
36 x 787-8 (25 UA and 11 CO)
14 x 787-9 (CO)
25 x A350-900 (UA)

I do think that there may be too many widebodies on order here for both carriers combined and thus some part of this total order is going to be cancelled. Given that the 787-8 is going to be the prevalent type (CO/UA will be taking delivery starting next year), I think the A350 order will be cancelled and maybe some 787-8s. I think the new UA will be taking at least 25 787-8 and all the 787-9. They may even opt for more 787-9s.

As far as the narrowbodies are concerned. Look for UA to continue to take delivery of the remainder of the 737/A320 orders but after that the airlines is going to wait and see what both manufacturers turn out in terms of the either the re engined narrowbody or next gen narrowbody. UA might even opt for the C-Series.

787 News Round Up

The 787 program continues apace with the pending TIA for the 787. Production continues with a new milestone set to take place on Monday, March 29th. That day the parts for LN 20, which is the first weight optimized 787, will be loaded into the assembly tool at position 1 in building 40-26.

The aircraft, ZA175, is destined for Japan Airlines with GEnx engines. The line will move on March 28 with LN 16 coming out and going to the paint hangar. Also on that day Boeing will hopefully be conducting the extremely important ultimate load test on ZY 997. Currently, Boeing is conducting tests on the static air frame in a build up to the ultimate load tests this Sunday. Mike Mecham of Aviation Week has a great blog post describing the ultimate load test.

Mike Mecham : The final wing bend (hopefully)

In other news, LAN airlines confirmed news that was already known...that they will take some of the early 787s. In total they're moving up the delivery of 10 787s with LN 10 and LN 16 due to be delivered in about a year from now during the 2nd quarter of 2011. Here's LAN's press release:

LAN Will Be One of the First Airlines in the World to Receive the Boeing
787 Dreamliner

SANTIAGO, Chile, March 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- LAN Airlines S.A. ("LAN" or "the Company") (NYSE: LFL; IPSA: LAN), one of the leading airlines in Latin America, and its subsidiaries today announced that the Company signed an agreement with Boeing to adjust the delivery of ten Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners to be incorporated into the Company's long haul fleet. This new delivery schedule anticipates by three years the arrival of this aircraft, previously scheduled for 2014 and now expected starting in the first semester of 2011.

In this way, LAN becomes the first airline in the western hemisphere to receive the Dreamliner, which is expected to revolutionize the airline industry, incorporating the most advanced technology. These ten aircraft are part of the original order for 26 Boeing 787s placed by LAN in 2007 and previously scheduled for delivery between 2014 and 2019. In addition, LAN has outstanding orders for six leased Dreamliners.

The Boeing 787-8 undertook its first flight in December 2009 and is expected to begin commercial operations in 2010. It has the capacity to seat approximately 250 passengers, providing a unique in-flight experience due to innovative technological advances featured inside the aircraft cabin. In addition, Dreamliners are fuel efficient and ecologically friendly, providing a significant reduction in emissions.

The Dreamliners will assist in the renewal and growth of the Company's long-haul fleet, allowing LAN Airlines and its subsidiaries to serve international destinations, improving connectivity between Latin America, Europe and the United States.

Mr. Enrique Cueto, LAN's Chief Executive Officer, stated, "The incorporation of the Boeing 787 ensures the Company's sustainable growth while preserving the environment and incorporating state-of-the-art technology to deliver the best travel experience for LAN's passengers. LAN looks forward to incorporating this new generation of aircraft in the first half of 2011."

"Partnering with LAN Airlines, one of the world's great air carriers, is an exciting way to introduce the 787 to the flying public. We look forward to seeing the Dreamliner fly with LAN's livery. The 787 Dreamliner represents one of those rare generational advancements in powered flight that will provide superior operating economics, compelling environmental performance and unique passenger comforts. LAN and its passengers will be among the early beneficiaries of these enhancements," said Marlin Dailey, Vice President Sales Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Flightblogger says that LAN will be joining the likes of ANA, Air India, Continental, JAL, Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, China Southern and Royal Air Maroc as operators of the 787 by 2011. Read Jon's post:

LAN confirms early 787 arrival

Does flying on an A380 mean lower fares for passengers?

When Airbus started marketing the A380, the argument made by some is that because you're packing so many people into a more efficient aircraft (for it's size) that air fares should go down. Well I wanted to to see if that was true. When Emirates started running it's A380 from Dubai to JFK direct it was was hard to compare air fares as there wasn't any competition on that non stop route (unsurprisingly Emirates reallocated that flight to the Dubai-Toronto route).

Now that Air France is on the verge of starting a Paris-New York flight on an A380, it does give this blogger an opportunity to comparison shop the airfares.

For my comparison I kept a few things static across the different carriers I looked at: Flying out December 15th and returning December 22nd. Air fare is the lowest for a single adult.

The comparison would be against AFoo7 (outbound to CDG) and AF006 (inbound to JFK). Both these flights are on the A380.

The total air fare for this flight (from the Air France Web Site) is $824.10.

I compared that against the following Air France flights between JFK and CDG:
AF007/AF006 (A380-800) - $824.10

AF023/AF022 (777-200ER) - $781.10

AF011/AF010 (777-200ER) - $886.10

AF009/AF008 (777-200ER) - $762.10

The following American Airlines Flight between JFK and CDG:

AA044/AA045 (767-300ER) - $679.00

The following Air France flights between Newark Liberty (EWR) and CDG:

AF019/AF018 (A330-200) - $885.10

The following Continental Airlines Flights between EWR and CDG:

CO056/CO057 (767-400ER) - $680.00

CO054/CO055 (757-200) - $680.00

Now a couple of things. This does not necessarily mean that the A380 flight is more expensive to operate on the New York - Paris route just that the air fares that the paying public pay is more expensive compared to most of the other flight options flown on older equipment. Indeed the A380 flights is the third most expensive in the New York-Paris market out of the 8 daily non stops. One explanation is that the other two Air France flights AF011 - 9:45PM and AF019 - 7PM are prime time flight as is AF007 - 7:10PM. CO54 leaves at 8:45PM also prime time while AA044 leaves at around 5:50PM a little before the prime time flight hours to Europe. Also I did not include Delta as they code share their Paris flights on Air France and the air fares are the same.

What about across the Pacific?

Ok to make sure that I wasn't seeing things, I did a similar comparison between Sydney, Australia and LAX. I compared the fares on QANTAS flight using the A380 (QF012/QF011) vs flight offered by QANTAS (on a 747-400) and it's competitor. I assumed in all cases that departure date from LAX on Nov. 25, 2009 and returning from Sydney on Dec 2, 2009. The airfare is for a single adult roundtrip on non stop service. Here are the results:

QANTAS Flights:

QF012/QF011 (A380-800) - $1913

QF108/QF107 (747-400) - $1404

NOTE: QF012 departs LAX at 10:30 PM and QF108 departs LAX at 11:45PM, a difference of only 1h hour and 15 minutes but a difference in price of over $500!!

VAustralia Flight:

VA002/VA001 (777-300ER) - $844.10

This flight departs LAX at 8:10PM.

United Flight:

UA839/UA840 (747-400) - $894.10

This flight departs LAX at 10:17PM

Delta Flight:

DL17/DL16 (777-200LR) - $2635

This flight departs LAX at 10:50PM

Of the five round trip flights analyzed here, the A380 flights is the 2nd most expensive with the Delta flights flown on a 777-200LR being very expensive (by over $700). But very interestingly is that a QANTAS flight that leave an hour and fifteen minutes later is over $500 less in air fare! If I were going to Australia and trying to save some dough well the choice is clear and I would take the QF108 flight (if I am so intent on flying the Qantas product).

In summary the hype of the A380 for the paying passenger really doesn't live up to the reality on the competitive routes. Qantas even beats it's own pricing on one of its most lucrative routes as does Air France when you compare the A380 fares vs the non A380 fares in the same market. The A380 doesn't deliver value to the flying public.