787 Dreamliner 2015 mid year report

2015 so far is a good year for the 787.  Midway through 2015 Boeing has delivered 64 787 including 23 787-9.  In June Boeing delivered 10 787 - 6 787-9 and 4 787-8.  One the production front, the program loaded 64 different air frames to start final assembly and rolled out 63 by June 30th.

In terms of efficiency, the Everett lines were slightly more efficient at a ratio of 0.96 for the first half of 2015 versus North Charleston at 1.05.  June was not a very efficient month for North Charleston as its efficiency ratio in June was 2.0 versus Everett at 0.88.  For North Charleston the score was skewed by 4 deliveries made in May and only 2 in June while production rate was around 3 and 4 respectively.  In other words there was an extra delivery made in May and I suspect there will be 4 deliveries from North Charleston in July.

With quarter end there usually is a push to get as many airplanes delivered as possible but Boeing 787 deliveries from May to June were down from 13 to 10.  While still respectable, the 787 delivery number was hurt by continued issues with seat installations in airplanes destined for American Airlines and Etihad Airways.  Additionally, the change in production rate in Charleston may have slowed things a bit as Boeing is being careful with the break in rate at both 787 lines now that the surge line is winding down.

Speaking of the surge line, there are only 4 more 787 air frames that are scheduled to be built on that line.  Boeing will now slow that line down to a point where only 1 787 will be loaded each month from July to October (there were 3 loaded in June). With the 2 surge air frames now going to 40-26 and 88-30.  There will be an increase in the number of air frames on the Charleston flight line as there is a transition time where deliveries will have to catch up to the production rate.  This may not happen until the end of the summer.

For the last half of this year, expect that 787-9 deliveries will outnumber 787-8 deliveries which is expected as there are over 475 787-9 to be delivered against just under 200 787-8.  In fact June 2015 was the first month where 787-9 deliveries did outnumber 787-8 deliveries as mentioned earlier.  I expect this trend to more or less continue each month.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing donates first 787 to Centrair

Well I reported sometime ago that Boeing was going to donate ZA001 to a Japanese exhibitor.  Well the question of whom is solved and it is going to Centrair in Nagoya where parts of the 787 are constructed including the center wing boxes.  I expect the aircraft is expected to depart around June 21 or 22nd for Nagoya.  Here's the press release:

Centrair and Boeing are pleased to announce the donation of the first 787 Dreamliner ever made – a flight test airplane known as ZA001 – to Centrair.

35% of the Dreamliner's airframe structure – the main wing, forward fuselage and center wing box – is manufactured in the Greater Nagoya area and transported from Centrair to Boeing's final assembly plants in the U.S. in a specially converted 747-400 freighter known as the Dreamlifter. Centrair is the only airport in Japan served by the Dreamlifter, which means that ZA001 is coming back to the place that literally gave it wings.

Centrair is delighted that Boeing has chosen to donate the historically significant first test plane, ZA001, to Greater Nagoya, which plays such an important role in the manufacturing of the 787 Dreamliner. Boeing donated the third 787 test airplane, ZA003 to Seattle’s Museum of Flight in November 2014, and the second, ZA002, to Pima Air and Space Museum in Arizona in March this year.

ZA001 first took to the skies on December 15, 2009 from Paine Field, adjoining Boeing's Everett factory, watched by more than 12,000 people. The last flight of this airplane to Centrair is like a "homecoming" for ZA001.

ZA001 will be put on display at Centrair. Through the exhibition, Centrair expects to raise interest in aerospace – and contribute of this "next generation industry" for the Greater Nagoya region. The airport also hopes that it will spur the imagination of the young people of Japan and the next generation of aerospace pioneers.

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 4

Talk about pulling your nuts out of a fire at the last minute.  Airbus was on the verge of being embarrassed on their home soil until a last minute deal with Wizz Air for 110 A321neos saved their chestnuts.  There are two bright spots for Boeing: 1) they were able to hold their own with Airbus in terms of Air Show orders this year and apparently the Wizz Air order could have easily gone in Boeing's favor and 2) Boeing did beat Airbus on widebody orders.

However, everyone knows that this is just 4 days out of 365 and we have a whole other 6 months + coming up that would see some major fleet contests being decided including the Emirates decision widely expected in November.

Boeing

AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Ethiopian – 6 x 787-8 (Firm)

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)

Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (LoI)

Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)

SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Unknown Customer – 1 x BBJ 737 Max 9 (Firm)

Volga-Dnepr – 20 x 747-8F (MoU)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)

Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

Synergy – 62 x A320neo (MoU)

Unknown Customer – 60 x A320neo (MoU)

Wizz Air – 110 x A321neo (MoU), 90 x A321neo (Purchase Rights)

VietJetAir – 6 x A321 (Firm)

ATR

Air Madagascar - 3 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Japan Air Commuter – 8 x ATR42-600 (8 Firm, 15 option)
Unknown Customer - 2 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 3

Day three bought more widebody orders for Boeing especially a nice shot in the arm for the 747-8.  Volga-Dnepr signed an MoU for 20 747-8F that will be partly purchased direct or acquired via lease.  Another shot in the arm came in the form of Ethiopian taking up 6 early build 787-8 airframes which I reported earlier but just confirmed today by the airline and Boeing.  This leaves Boeing with only 4 early build 787-8 left to sell:  LN4, LN5, LN17, & LN19 (the last 3 are GE-powered airplanes).

Airbus booked a couple of major MoU for the A320neo but that was about it.  Tomorrow should be the last day for any deals to be announced.  I'm still hoping that Boeing will announce the customers behind a couple of 787-9 deals that have so far remained unknown.

Boeing

AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Ethiopian – 6 x 787-8 (Firm)

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)

Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (LoI)

Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)

SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Unknown Customer – 1 x BBJ 737 Max 9 (Firm)

Volga-Dnepr – 20 x 747-8F (MoU)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)

Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

Synergy – 62 x A320neo (MoU)

Unknown Customer – 60 x A320neo (MoU)

VietJetAir – 6 x A321 (Firm)

ATR

Air Madagascar - 3 x ATR72-600
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Japan Air Commuter – 8 x ATR42-600 (8 Firm, 15 option)
Unknown Customer - 2 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 2

Boeing's order book exploded with a number of 737 orders that were announced today.  Airbus posted three orders, the largest coming from Korean Air for 30 x A321neo.  Still there are two more full days for all the commercial manufacturers to make a splash.  So far the only major manufacturer that has been quiet is Bombardier with the C-Series.  Coming on the heels of news that their aircraft is beating weight and performance specs, the company still hasn't posted a sale for the CS100 or CS300.

On the 787 front there were no new orders but there was an apparent cancellation by Aeroflot for the 22 787s that they ordered a few years back.  Apparently things have "changed" and they no longer needed the aircraft.  Given the political climate between the US and USS...er...Russia this is hardly a surprise.  No word on their orders for the A350 and if they're going to be cancelled.  I do believe that the slots that Aeroflot has given up can be quickly filled given the demand for near term delivery slots for the 787.

One bit of positive news is that ALC will be leasing 10 787-10 to Vietnam Airlines thus complementing their 787-9s.  I'm hoping that tomorrow will give us some positive 787 news but as always, watch this space or follow me on Twitter as I'd retweet information coming out of Paris.

Boeing

AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)

Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (Firm)

Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)

SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo

Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)

Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Frim)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

ATR

Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR42-600 (Firm)

Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Japan Air Commuter – 9 x ATR 42-600 (8 Firm, 1 option)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR 42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR 42-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 1

With day 1 of the 2015 Paris Air Show in the bag, there were a few surprises but on the whole a typical first day at the bi-annual air show. Airbus, which usually saves up order announcements for the big summer air shows (Farnborough or Paris) went out to quick lead.

The surprise was Garuda Indonesia signing LoIs for 30 787-9s along with the 737Max and A350.  No one saw that one coming and it's nice to see the 787 picking up another major customer when this order is finalized.  Despite the A350 order from Garuda, the airlines widebody fleet is mostly the A330 with a few 777-300ERs.

Another surprise...Qatar's firm order for 10 x 777X.  Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research says that this is not the 777X order that Boeing had booked last week along with the 15 x 787 cancellations.  In fact he confirmed my suspicion that Etihad is the source of the 777X order as well as the 15 787 cancellations (though the order is attributable to an unknown customer, it is Etihad's).  Etihad may announce the 777X order at Paris but it currently unknown if they will.

Boeing

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737MAX (LoI)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

ATR

Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR42-600 (Firm)

Japan Air Commuter – 9 x ATR 42-600 (8 Firm, 1 option)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR 42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR 42-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

787 Flight testing, Paris 2015 preview, and 787 order cancellation

In a period of 4 days, June 10 to June 13th, the 787 program conducted 7 B-1 flights which is quite a few in a short span of time.  It does raise the question of how many 787s Boeing is planning to deliver by the end of this month.  Thus far in June Boeing has delivered 2 787-9s, a low number for sure.  But like in previous quarter ends, they usually end the quarter with a slew of deliveries and the 2nd quarter, 2015 doesn't look to be any different.  One thing that is interesting to note is that it appears North Charleston will deliver only 2 787s this month.  Given the flight test activity of the last few days, I believe that Boeing will ultimately deliver a total of 12 787s including the 2 already delivered.  This will include around 8 787-9 and 4 787-8.

Last week, we saw a cancellation for 15 787s.  We still don't know which model or the customer but Jon Ostrower tweeted a possible tantalizing clue:

Boeing nabs 10 777Xs. Customer count unchanged at six - someone topped up. Books cancellation for 15 787s, related? pic.twitter.com/hrV1g5hme4

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) June 11, 2015

If the customer who bought the 10 777X is the same as the one who cancelled the 787s then the only tow possibilities can be ANA and Etihad.  However this is where it gets interesting.

When Air Berlin cancelled it's order for 15 787-9s last year on September 26th, another order for 15 787-9 also was recorded on the same day.  It is widely rumored that there was transfer of the order from Air Berlin to Etihad which, given that Etihad partly owns Air Berlin, is unsurprising.  It now appears that Etihad may have traded in those 15 787s (the unidentified 787-9) for the 10 777X increasing their order to 35.  More information may be coming in the next few days during the Paris Air Show.

So speaking of the Paris Air Show, from some of the noise that I've been hearing, it may be quiet with regards to 787 orders though there may be an announcement by Qatar Airways regarding their 787 options of which they have 30.  Also I expect that the some of the unidentified customers for the 787 will be made public including Ethiopian's top up order for 6 787s coming from the early build 787s that are currently stored at Everett. Hainan's 30 aircraft order for the 787-9 should also be made public during the coming week.  I'll be staying on top of the news coming from Le Bourget during the week and updating this blog as the news comes out....unless I'm a sleep.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing loses order of 15 787s

Boeing lost an order of 15 787s. The cancellation occurred during the last week and maybe tied to a simultaneous order of 10 777s.  It is not known who cancelled the order but the list of suspects include the following:

Customer Name	Customer Code	Model	Ordered	Delivered	Undelivered
AerCap	ILF	787-9	48	2	46
Aeroflot	ARO	787-8	22	0	22
Air Canada	ACN	787-9	29	0	29
Air China	BEJ	787-9	15	0	15
Air France-KLM Group	FXN	787-9	25	0	25
ALC	HAZ	787-9	15	0	15
All Nippon Airways	ANA	787-9	44	4	40
American Airlines	AAL	787-9	22	0	22
British Airways	BAB	787-9	22	0	22
CIT Leasing Corporation	TCI	787-9	16	0	16
Delta Air Lines	DAL	787-8	18	0	18
Etihad Airways	ETI	787-9	41	3	38
Gulf Air	GUL	787-8	16	0	16
Japan Airlines	JAL	787-9	20	1	19
Unidentified Customer(s)	UNK	787-9	15	0	15
Unidentified Customer(s)	UNK	787-9	24	0	24

Additionally there are two unknown customers who placed orders of 15 and 24 respectively.  This list doesn't include those orders for the 787-10 only outstanding orders for the -8 or -9.  The unknown customer for the 15 787-9 is widely believed to be Etihad as it appeared at the same time as the Air Berlin cancellation of their 787 order.  The second unknown customer order (for 24) was added to the order book very recently.

I've bold the more likely candidates who cancelled this order.  We'll know who the culprit is when Boeing releases it's month end  order and delivery report in the first week of July.  Boeing did convert an order of 10 787s for United into 10 777-300ERs and are looking to add more 777 orders to the book to bridge the production gap between the 777 classics and the 777X.  They certainly don't mind doing it at the expense of the 787 as it does free up more production slots for customers looking to add that airplane to their fleet but can't get the required delivery slots.  In the long run it could be win-win for both programs.

787 program gaining on production and testing efficiency improvments

Future profitability of the 787 program is going to be driven by production efficiencies both in final assembly as well as at the supplier level.  The drive for greater efficiency seems to be having positive results as 787 build times have reduced but also build quality has improved.

A way to indirectly track this is via the number of flight tests that each 787 conducts prior to delivery.  Usually with a mature program like the 777, the aircraft conducts a B-1 (Boeing) flight test to wring out the aircraft and look for any issues that may have occurred during production.  This is followed by a C-1 (customer) flight.  Flights for painting are not included.  Looking at this metric optically we can see that the number of flights that are flown has decreased to point that Boeing needs about 3 to 4 flight with a few needing as few as 2.  Clearly Boeing is trying to reach 777 level of program maturity and improving build quality will be important in the company’s ability to achieve that goal.

Additionally Boeing is also trying to achieve production efficiency which is going to be needed as Boeing eyes a rate increase early next year as well as closing the surge line and moving the three airplanes that are produced on that line to the main 787 lines in Everett and North Charleston.  The two main production lines need to be more efficient in order to handle the transfer of work which entails each line to produce 5 airplanes per month by the end of the year. Boeing plans to go to 12 per month in the first quarter of next year (Perhaps as early as January but I think February is more likely).

I am revising my 787 delivery estimate for June based on information from sources.  Earlier I had projected 14 787s will be delivered and I believe that they will now deliver 10 787s in June.  Boeing should roll out 11 787 from Everett and North Charleston this month.  The revised delivery projection includes 2 Etihad 787-9 (1 of which has just been delivered) however the other one has yet to conduct its first flight.  I still have no clarity on what the issues maybe on the Etihad aircraft and given that Boeing delivered one, I’m not inclined to believe that this has anything to do with Zodiac seat issues but barring any new information it is hard to speculate on what these issue(s) may be.  Boeing still has to conduct B-1 flights on 3 other 787s that are due to be delivered this month other than the aforementioned Etihad 787-9.

There was some good news reported by Guy Norris at AviationWeek.  He reported that the 787-10 is running ahead of schedule.  Reports are out via Aspire Aviation that the -10’s entry in to service is being pushed up to 1^st quarter 2018 versus the 2^nd quarter of that year.  Norris reports that they will have reached 90% of the detailed engineering release later this year.  The -10 is a simple stretch of the 787-9 and is expected to have 95% commonality with its shorter sibling thus simplifying spares and training expenses for airlines.  The aircraft is expected to start production in early 2017 when ZC001 (LN528) is assembled in North Charleston.  Thus far the -10 (like the -9) has had a trouble free birth and will probably be one of the stars of Boeing’s widebody lineup which brings us to my last topic of the post…..sales.

The 2015 Paris Air Show is right around the corner and while it is expected that Airbus will rule the airshow order book, Boeing will have a few announcements of its own.  There are several unidentified 787 orders that are on Boeing’s firm order book most of which are 787-9 orders.  Based on conversations I do see Boeing announcing the customers for some of these orders including 30 787-9 for Hainan Airlines (I believe that 24 to be purchased and 6 acquired on lease).  6 787-8s for Ethiopian which will be culled from the “terrible teens” is also expected to be announced.  Sources have told me that Qatar Airways, whose order of 30 787-8 will be filled by this time next year, may exercise the 30 787 options it has for the 787-10.  Beyond Paris other potential orders to look forward to include 100 x 787 from Emirates which would mostly be the 787-10 but would also include some 787-9 says Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research.  He said that Emirates would possibly take up an additional 50 787 options to be exercised on any 787 model.  This order should be revealed at the Dubai Air Show in November.  QANTAS is expected to exercise the 50 787-9 options later this year.

Lastly, even though we're not quite to mid year it's not too early to look towards 2016 deliveries on a macro level. If, as expected, Boeing increases production early next year to 12/month. I do see Boeing having the potential to deliver around 143 787 including several "terrible teens."  This will be the year that the 787-9 will greatly out deliver the 787-8 by a margin of 3 to 1.  This equates to 107 787-9 deliveries and 36 787-8 deliveries.  This is not unexpected as Boeing has delivered, thus far, almost 56% of the total 787-8 order intake since the program inception while only delivering 5.5% of the total 787-9 order book.  Many observers are of the opinion that future 787-8 order will be limited as many airlines are gravitating to the 787-9 either as new orders or converting existing 787-8 order to the larger -9 and -10 models.  Barring a major improvement program for the 787-8 this trend may very well continue thus leaving the 787-8 size market to the A330-800NEO.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 May Month End Review

Boeing had a pretty good month delivering 12 787s to customers.  Among the highlights is the 13th and last 787-8 for TUI Travel and 2 787-8 for American Airlines.  It does seem that for American the Zodiac seat issue is behind them but it appears the same cannot said for Etihad.  They have 3 787-9s waiting on the flightline, only 1 of which has flown.  Boeing achieved and production efficiency ratio of 0.83 (roll out of 10 787s vs. delivery of 12 aircraft).  Again anything lower than 1 is a good sign that Boeing is moving to reduce the backlog of 787s and make the production, testing and delivery process more efficient.  Overall production efficiency is just under 1 at 0.98 with Charleston being a little bit more efficient (0.94) versus Everett (1.0) thus far this year.

One notable achievement is that Boeing was able to deliver a 787-9 to Scoot in under 70 days from the time the aircraft started final assembly.  ZB130 (LN 308, 9V-OJD) started final assembly on March 23, 2015, rolled out on April 22nd, 2015, had its first flight on May 6, 2015 and was delivered on May 29th, 2015.  A total of 67 days.  This may well have been a test of new processes in the production system designed to cut build and delivery time significantly especially before the two main 787 lines in 40-26 and 88-30 go up in rate by the end of this year.  Eventually both lines are to be producing 7 aircraft each by the end of the decade but the upshot is that Boeing needs to cut the total time from the start of final assembly to delivery.

Boeing started final assembly on 10 787s including a 787-8 BBJ for the Sultan of Brunei and Air Canada's first 787-9.  Of these 10, 4 are 787-9 and 6 are 787-8.  Over the course of the next few months I expect that this ratio will change as the number of 787-8 remaining to be built (barring new orders) decreases.  If Boeing is to sell more 787-8s, I am starting to believe that they will need to look to reduce weight of the aircraft as well as introduce other fuel saving measures including urging GE and Rolls Royce to improve the fuel burn of their engines.  Roll Royce seems to be on that path with the Trent-1000-TEN.

Boeing rolled out 10 787s including the first 787-8 for PrivatAir.  Of the 10 rolled out, 5 are 787-8 and 5 are 787-9.

For next month Boeing should deliver 14 787s prior to the end of the second quarter.  Of these 14, 9 should be 787-9 including the three aforementioned Etihad airplanes.  Air India's final 787-8 (assuming they convert the remaining 6 into 787-9s) will also be delivered in June as will Japan Airlines' first 787-9 which coincidentally is the first of the 3 787-9 test airplanes to be delivered.  Another notable delivery is the first 787-9 for Vietnam Airlines which is rumored to be performing the flying display at this year's Paris Airshow in mid June.  Lastly, the penultimate 787-8 for both Kenya Airways and Xiamen Airlines will be delivered in June.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

ZA001 to be donated to Japanese museum

Screen Grab from Flightradar24

Dreamliner 1, the first Boeing 787 will fly to Boeing Field today after spending several years in storage in Palmdale, Ca.  The aircraft will subsequently fly to Japan, perhaps around the end of this month, where it will be donated to a yet un-named Japanese museum after removal of flight test equipment.  Much of the aircraft's primary structure was built in Japan including the wings. The second and third 787s were donated to the Pima Air Museum and Museum of Flight respectively.

Boeing 787 May 2015 Mid Month Report

Midway through the month of May, Boeing is set up quite nicely to delivery a good number of 787s to customers.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 4 787s this month including the last of American's 787-8 that were delayed due to the seat issues at Zodiac.  Thus far Boeing has delivered 273 787s, 45 during 2015 and 4 in the month of May.

More encouraging is the level of 787 flight test activity that has occurred over the last week and a half.  There have been a number of customer flights that have taken place and as a consequence, there are 6 aircraft that are ready to be delivered including at least 5 that are expected to be delivered on May 21st.  Boeing is expected to conduct a customer flight in a next couple of days on a 787-9 for United Airlines that will be delivered from Charleston.  Thus we can see 6 787s delivered by the start of the Memorial Day weekend for a total of 10 in May with a few more expected to be delivered by the end of May.

However there is a more impressive statistic that I would like to share.  The last 15 787 deliveries made by Boeing (essentially the 11 April deliveries and the 4 May deliveries) required and average of 3.8 test flights before the airplanes were handed over.  This average excludes the flights made by Charleston built airplanes for painting purposes.  Another impressive statistic:  Over the same 15 airplanes (excluding the last 2 American Airlines 787s that were delivered during this period) the average time from start of final assembly to delivery is 89.5 days across all three lines in Everett and Charleston.

If Boeing can execute, they can potentially have delivered 13 787s this month, 53 for 2015 and 282 787 delivered since program deliveries began in 2011.  There is a potential hiccup though it doesn't seem to be serious.  There are three 787-9 for Etihad that have completed final assembly but have not had any test flights.  The aircraft are painted but have been sitting on the flightline.  One airplane, ZB079 (LN 286, A6-BLC) having finished final assembly activities in mid February....3 months ago! Another, ZB080 (LN 302, A6-BLD) rolled out about a month ago.  A third, ZB081 (LN 305, A6-BLE) rolled out of final about 3 weeks ago and just came out of paint a few days ago.  I can only speculate that these airplanes are being held up because of issues with Zodiac as well.  It appears that these airplanes will be delayed for just as long as the ones for American.  These three are the only remaining deliveries to Etihad this year.

Lastly, with about 6 months left before the temporary surge line is shut down for good, There are still 12 airplanes that are in assembly or will go through final assembly by November.  Boeing will start 2 more 787s this month, 3 next month (June) and then execute a rate break whereby 2 airplanes will go one each to the main Everett line and the main Charleston line.  From July to October, Boeing will send only 1 787 to the temporary surge line.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing to shut down 787 surge line by year end to take advantage of production efficiencies; start up 777X production

On Friday Boeing announced the decision to shut down the 787 temporary surge line in Everett and move the assembly of airplanes from that line to the main lines in 40-26 and 88-30.  By the end of the year both lines will be producing 5 787 per month.

The decision to close it down is certainly not a shock but to shut it early was a surprise.  Efficiency gains that were realized earlier than expected on both the Charleston and Everett lines allowed for cost reduction that come with merging the three lines into 2.  Boeing figured that it now costs less to produce 10 airplanes in 2 line than it does on 3 lines.  Boeing will start converting the line to in order to do assembly activities on the 777X which is slated to start production around 2017-2018.

The switch over will down gradually over the next 6 months.  Charleston should be at 4 by the start of July while 40-26 will be producing 5 and 40-24 will be at 1.  By November, the switch over from 40-24 to 40-26 and 88-30 should be complete. The last 787 to be built on the TSL will load around October and in November all future assembly activities will be done either on 40-26 or 88-30. ZB236 (LN 381) will be the last aircraft built on 40-24.  This airplane is for AerCap and being leased to KLM.

Boeing started production on the 40-24 surge line in the 3rd quarter 2012 as means to reduce schedule risk associated with opening the Charleston line as well as a means to catch up on deliveries delayed by the repeated Dreamliner production issues.  The line no has fulfilled its mission and 40-24 will now be used to support production of early 777X airplanes.

Beverly Wyse's statement to BSC employees regarding the surge line shutdown:

Today Boeing Commercial Airplanes announced that we’ve finalized plans to close the Everett 787 Dreamliner Temporary Surge Line (TSL) later this year to allow the 777X Program to transition into the factory space currently occupied by the TSL and begin production preparations for the 777X. We are confident that the timing is right for this transition, and our ability to do so this year is a testament to our teams’ capabilities. 

With the phasing out of the TSL, BSC Final Assembly will produce five additional airplanes, meaning that we will transition to our Final Assembly production rate of five per month earlier than planned.

We continue to work on improvement with some of our suppliers, and we’re confident in your ability to execute this plan. I am committed to insuring that BSC remains stable and that we follow our site overtime guidelines so our teammates enjoy time off with their families. 

This is great news for our site further demonstrates the very high level of confidence that the Boeing executive leadership team has in your abilities. Boeing South Carolina has quickly earned a reputation for successfully rising to any challenge with our “Bring it On” attitude, and if any team can do this -- and do it successfully, it’s you! 

As always, thank you for your hard work and dedication!

Beverly 

The 6 787-8 that were ordered from an unidentified customer late last month will be coming from the lot of early build 787s (also known as the "Terrible Teens").  The customer ordered Roll Royce engines throwing into doubt about who is the end user.  I had speculated that the order is for Ethiopian or a lessor with a n agreement to lease the airplanes to Ethiopian given the news over the past month or so.  However, Ethiopian's current fleet of 787s use GEnx engines.  IT's still very possible that the airplanes can end up with Ethiopian who don't mind using the Trent-1000 engines.

From the firing order it also appears that TUI Travel has ordered the 787-9.  It's still too early to know how many but the order must be one of the unidentified 787-9 orders that is listed on Boeing's order and delivery web site (there are 4 separate orders).  Also on the firing order is 2 additional 787-9 for united Airlines (LN 443 and LN 445).  They had recently reduced their 787-9 order to 16 so I believe the changes hadn't made it way through the system.  I fully expect that LN 443 and LN 445 will be allocated to another 787-9 customer within the next couple of months.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing records 9 787 orders in April

Despite the loss of 10 787-9 orders from United Airlines, Boeing did record 9 x 787 orders in the month including 1 x 787-8 BBJ, 2 x 787-9 for Air Tahiti Nui and 6 x 787-8 for an unidentified customer.

I believe, though I have no evidence yet, that the 6 x 787-8 orders are for Ethiopian and will come from the 6 assembled "terrible teens" that are awaiting change incorporation and re-work at Everett.

One minor change is that American Airlines will now take 20 787-8 (a reduction of one) and 22 787-9 (an increase of 1).

Boeing attempts to build and deliver 787-9 in 67 days

Boeing is going to try and build and deliver a 787-9 for Scoot in 67 days.  The aircraft in questions, ZB130 (LN 308, 9V-OJD) started final assembly on March 23 and rolled out on April 22, which was 30 days later, from the main 787 assembly line 40-26 in Everett.  It took its first flight today, May 6 which is 2 weeks after rolling out and is projected to spend 23 days in pre-delivery.

ZB130 still has to be painted that should happen between May 10 and May 15th with delivery occurring on May 29th.  This would be 67 days from the time the aircraft entered final assembly to the time it would be delivered.  Of course this could be derailed if there are maintenance or build issues or if Scoot is not prepared to take delivery for some reason.

If Boeing is able to accomplish this, it would be a milestone event in the 787 program as Boeing has yet to build and deliver a 787 in under 70 days.  The current record is 76 days when Boeing built and delivered a 787 to Arke (owned by TUI Travel) earlier this year.  That aircraft, ZA324 (LN 281, PF-TFM) was built in Everett and spent 38 days in final assembly (40-24 surge line), 24 days in pre-flight testing and paint, and 14 days in pre-delivery.  Boeing would hve more confidence in increasing the production rate as well reaffirm their production methods with the aim of further reducing production costs.  If Boeing can demonstrate faster production and delivery times, it can go a long way to reducing 787 production costs which has been a drain on its earnings,