GE powered 787-9 receives Amended Type Certificate clearing way for first delivery next week.

The FAA granted Boeing the amended type certificate for the GE powered version of the 787-9 clearing the way for deliveries to begin later next week with the first aircraft going to United Airlines.  That delivery should occur in the middle to late next week.

Boeing is slowly ramping up 787-9 production this year and is on track to deliver 10 to 12 this year though I'm in favor of the higher number.  The airplanes that are coming off the production line still have to go through some change incorporation at the EMC but I believe this should start to tail off by the middle of the fourth quarter (November).  2015 might prove to be a big year for deliveries of the larger 787 model.  I believe that Boeing can deliver around 50 to 55 787-9 which would be almost 50% of their 2015 deliveries.  If they are able to accomplish that coupled with a successful drive to reduce production and assembly costs, then the 787-9 can be extremely profitable for Boeing in 2015.

It could also help if Boeing can convert more customers from the 787-8 to either the 787-9 and/or the 787-10.  Already some airlines are getting out the 787-8 like Air Berlin which still has to confirm their conversion from the -8 to the -9.  This can only help the overall profitability of the 787 program in the long run.  Yesterday, Boeing showed a cancellation of 5 787s from it's weekly order report.  Speculation immediately fell on Lion Air/Batik as the source as they have been talking about converting that order into 10 737s.  There was also an unidentified order for 10 737s posted along with the cancellation thus Lion Air does seem to be the logical choice.

Thus far in August, Boeing has delivered 8 787s but I do expect 5 more to be delivered in the next 9 days. I'll give a fuller report at the end of the month along with a preview of September's deliveries around Labor Day.
787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 Update - August 19, 2014

787 deliveries picked up the first two and half weeks into August with 7 deliveries thus far including British Airways 8th and final 787-8.  They are second customer to have its 787-8 completely fulfilled this year (China Southern being the other).  In the next 12 days I do see Boeing delivering 7 more Dreamliners between the 20th and the 31st.  Currently they have delivered 177 787 since deliveries began, 63 this year, 15 thus far in the quarter and 7 so far this month.

The upcoming deliveries would include United's first 787-9 though Boeing is still waiting for the final FAA Type Certification for the GE powered aircraft.  We should also see the first deliveries to Royal Jordanian and Xiamen this month when they take 1 787-8 each.  Deliveries should also be made to Qatar, Jetstar (QANTAS), Kenya Airways and ANA.

For September, Boeing is looking to end the 3rd quarter 787s delivery on a bang with about 18 (maybe 19) deliveries.  The preliminary plan is for Boeing to deliver up to 4 787-9s including the first to Virgin Atlantic as well as one more each to ANA, Air New Zealand and United.  Also we can see the 10th and final delivery to Ethiopian of their order of 10 787-8s though they are going to be taking more on lease from AerCap. Both Avianca and CIT Leasing will take ownership of their 1st 787s.  In the case of CIT, these aircraft are being leased to Royal Jordanian.

While deliveries look promising this month, Boeing will start final assembly on only 7 787s this month.  It appears that there will be delay in the start of final assembly of LN 240 and LN 241 while Boeing South Carolina will continue producing at 3/month.  The word I've heard is that this to allow the start of transitioning of work from the surge line in 40-24 to 40-26 and the eventual shut down (in 2016) of the 787 surge line in 40-24.  Right now the surge is producing 3 787s while the main line is producing 4.  It'll be interesting to see how Boeing handles the transition over the next couple of years.

In September, Boeing should start final assembly on aircraft destined for American Airlines (2), Scoot and Royal Air Maroc.  If they are to deliver 26 airplanes by the end of September then Boeing can potentially have 203 total deliveries, 89 this year, and 41 in the third quarter.  They will have to put the pedal to the metal in terms of production flight testing however.  The next couple of leading up to the Labor Day holiday will probably be very slow as people go on vacation but come September 2nd the pace should quick substantially.  If they are able to deliver a substantial number of 787 in the next month and half then Boeing could potentially deliver closer to 120 787s this year.  Please note that there are a lot that can happen that would cause this estimation to go out the window but it does appear that Boeing is on a good track to deliver the delivery guidance.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

ZA006 flying again

ZA006, one of the 6 787-8 that was part of the test flight program appears to be flying according to both Flightaware and Flightradar24.  The aircraft has been at Lackland Air Force Base for about 2 years first being stored and then undergoing change incorporation and refurbishment in preparation to delivery to the Mexican Air Force for use as a VIP transport.  There's no word on delivery though it is thought that it will be delivered towards the end of the year.  Right now it appears the aircraft is doing engineering flights to verify and test the aircraft after the refurbishment.

787 update - August 8, 2014

787 Deliveries in July

Boeing had a so-so delivery month in July with deliveries of only 8 Dreamliners.  They could have done better but I do think they are set up to deliver upwards of 15 787s in August.  July deliveries included ANA's first 787-9 which they are planning to press into service in early august n domestic routes in Japan.  In terms of production efficiency, Boeing delivered 8 aircraft rolled out 11 787s from all assembly lines.  That translates to an efficiency rating of 1.38 (11 rollouts/8 deliveries).  The lower the number the more efficient the program.  The Charleston plant delivered 3 and rolled out 3 for an efficiency of 1 while Everett delivered 5 aircraft and rolled out 8 giving it a an efficiency of 1.6.  Currently it does appear that Charleston is producing more efficiently given this metric but it doesn't take into account unforeseen circumstances that would not be in the control of Boeing or at either plant (i.e. customer difficulties, etc.). Eight days into August and thus far there have been 3 deliveries.  There has also been a noticeable pick up in flight testing tempo.  I do project that in addition to the 3 already delivered in August, Boeing can deliver 12 more of which 10 have flown and 2 more are awaiting their B-1 flights.

787 Production

The production pace at both plants continue as before with several more -9 entering final assembly in Everett.  Boeing is gradually shifting Everett 787 production from 40-24 where the surge line is located to 40-26 which is the main production line to a point where the surge line will shut down in 2016.  This will allow 40-24 to be freed up for 777X production that should start around 2017 after the surge line undergoes re-construction to prepare it for 777X production.  The build rate in 40-26 appears to be about 6 manufacturing days while in 40-24 it appears to be about 7 manufacturing day.  Over the next 18 months I expect the manufacturing days in 40-26 will decrease to about 3 days as Boeing slowly transfer the surge production to the main line.  During August we should seeing a couple of first: the 1st 787-9 for Scoot and the 1 787-8 for American Airlines should start final assembly during the 3rd week of August and both aircraft should deliver around November.
In Charleston the expansion continues as Boeing continues construction in the 88-30 line in order to prepare it to handle 7 airplanes/month by 2019. Work continues on a new paint facility and firefighting station but the expansion will not likely stop there. Currently the build rate is about 7 days at Charleston which will have that team pulling 3 787s out per month and delivering the same number in August.
The one big news for Charleston came out at the end of July.  Boeing announced that they will build the 787-10 exclusively in Charleston. The reason that was given that the fuselage can't fit into the Dreamlifter for transport to Everett.  According to some information that I received that is technically not true.  The fuselage can fit into the Dreamlifter but the FAA has set a limit as to the length of an object that can be carried by the aircraft.  The mid body fuselage for the 787-10 exceed the maximum length allowed by the FAA. For some time this decision was anticipated to go to Charleston and frankly was not a surprise. Neither was it a surprise that Charleston will taken on the additional rate increase that Boeing has planned for 2016 and around 2018-2019 to take the rate up to 14 aircraft per month.  Boeing has announced that they will build the -10 in Charleston but it remains to be seen if they will conduct certification flight testing in Charleston or if the 787-10 will conduct all it's testing out of Boeing Field where Boeing Flight Test team is headquartered.  It is conceivable that they can set up the facilities necessary to conduct certification tests in Charleston but I doubt that Boeing would take the expense to do that just for one derivative.  Most likely the test flight fleet will be flown to Boeing Field and testing will be based out of Seattle.  The location of the -10 shouldn't change the employment outlook at Charleston but the increase in work as well as the increase of the Boeing foot print in the Charleston area will drive the employment at the Boeing facility.
Here's Boeing's Statement on the 787-10:

Boeing to Assemble 787-10 Dreamliner in South Carolina

EVERETT, Wash., July 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] announced today that final assembly of the 787-10, the newest and longest member of the 787 Dreamliner family of airplanes, will take place exclusively in North Charleston, S.C. 

Boeing will continue to assemble both 787-8s and 787-9s in Everett, Wash., and North Charleston. Design of the 787-10 is underway in Everett, with final assembly of the first 787-10 scheduled to begin in South Carolina in 2017. 

"We looked at all our options and found the most efficient and effective solution is to build the 787-10 at Boeing South Carolina," said Larry Loftis, vice president and general manager, 787 program, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "This will allow us to balance 787 production across the North Charleston and Everett sites as we increase production rates. We're happy with our growth and success in South Carolina, and the continued success at both sites gives us confidence in our plan going forward." 

The 787-10 will be 18 feet (5.5 meters) longer than the 787-9. With 10 feet (3 meters) of that increase in the midbody section, the 787-10 midbody is too long to be transported efficiently from North Charleston, where systems integration work is performed, to the Everett facility for final assembly. In addition, introducing the 787-10 in North Charleston takes advantage of that facility's capacity while allowing the Everett facility to continue improving productivity as it focuses on the 787-8 and 787-9. 

The 787 production system includes three production lines: two in Everett (including a temporary surge line) and one in South Carolina. The integrated production system currently operates at a production rate of 10 airplanes per month. As announced last year, the 787 production rate will increase to 12 airplanes per month in 2016 and 14 per month by the end of the decade.  

The Everett facility will continue to assemble seven airplanes per month, while Boeing South Carolina final assembly will gradually increase from three 787s per month today to five per month in 2016 and seven per month by the end of the decade.  

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner family of airplanes offers airlines unmatched fuel efficiencies and environmental performance, while providing a new level of comfort for passengers through the thoughtful application of new technologies. To date, the 787 family has won more than 1,000 orders and more than 165 airplanes have been delivered to 21 customers worldwide.  

The 787-10 will leverage 787 technology to provide more passenger and cargo capacity along with unparalleled seat-mile economics in the medium twin-aisle market. Since its launch in June 2013, the 787-10 has won 132 orders from six global customers.

A couple other notes of interest.  Boeing has stored a 787 that is supposed to be delivered to Azerbaijan Airlines from their order of 2 aircraft.  Rumor has it that the airline now wants to cancel the order though it is just rumor and the airline can also be delaying delivery.  It is unknown if this aircraft has an interior installed already but 2nd aircraft is scheduled to be assembled in Charleston around September for delivery in December.  This situation seems similar to the one Airbus faced with Skymark Airlines when they cancelled their A380 order after two aircraft had already been built.  For now this aircraft is in storage until there is a resolution to the situation with the customer and they will be building the 2nd aircraft as the parts are already in the supply chain. If they do agree to the cancellation then I don't think Boeing will have a problem placing these aircraft with another customer though it may take a few months depending on the interior.

Lastly, the assembly of the 787-9 is starting to hit it stride though the airplanes produced are still going through change incorporation at the Everett Modification Center.  This will continue because when the aircraft was certified there were part manufactured by Boeing or suppliers that had to be bought up to the FAA certification standards.  Many of these parts were deep within the supply chain. when the FAA issued the amended type certificate thus these parts need to be bought up to standard before the FAA certifies each aircraft as being in compliance.  This is the reason why Boeing is deliberately keeping the 787-9 assembly rate slow until the changes are reflected throughout the supply chain.  I believe that Boeing will start assembling aircraft that will not need change incorporation around the time that Charleston starts building it's first 787-9 in November for united Airlines.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

All Things 787 Mega Update

First let me start out this update by saying that my prayers and condolences are with the victims and families of MH17.  I do hope that there is swift justice for all the responsible perpetrators of this awful crime.

Since my last blog post about 3 weeks ago there has been much activity with the 787.  Boeing posted 15 total deliveries in June and a total of 30 in the 2nd quarter.  This total included the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand as well as delivering a 787 that completed a customers full order (China Southern receiving it's 10th 787 from an order of 10 that they placed).  Boeing has delivered 48 787s through the end of June (51 to date) and overall 787 deliveries to June 2014 stands at 162 (165 to date).

AS attention now turns to the last half of 2014, we will see the first 787-9 with GE engines delivered to United Airlines.  The first aircraft for UA, ZB167 (LN 181,N38950) performed its first flight on July 11th and is now into the F&R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx powered version of the 787-9. This aircraft should be delivered to United by the end of August.  ANA should also be receiving its first 787-9 later this month.  It will take delivery of ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) after it had completed the F&R/ETOPs flight testing for the Roll Royce powered version of the -9.  It had to go through change incorporation and is at the final stages of production testing.

I do anticipate that Boeing can deliver around 10 787s in July including the one to ANA.  It already has delivered 3 aircraft and at least 5 more look to be ready for delivery over the next 11 days.  Including the aforementioned 787-9 for ANA other deliveries should include:

Air Canada - 1
Air India - 1
Ethiopian Airlines - 1
Kenya Airways - 1
QANTAS - 1
Qatar Airways - 1

Boeing needs to deliver and average of 10.3 787s in the last 6 months of 2014 in order  to make good on it's 10 delivery projections for the Dreamliner.

July 2014 also meant that the who's who of the Aerospace world trekked to Farnborough, UK for the bi-annual Farnborough Air Show except for your trully (I still have my day job to worry about).  Though I was hoping for some more 787 orders (particularly the -8 and -10), there were still come decent 787 orders coming from lessor CIT for 10 787-9d and MG Aviation (Arkia Airlines) for 2 787-9.  There is an LoI for 6 787-9 from lessor Avolon.  However, baring a major order, Boeing's 787 book to bill will be significantly lower than 1 this year as the orders are only trickling in.  Certainly they will receive many more orders for the aircraft but this may be stymied by the launch of the A330neo.  Boeing still has to study the effect that the launch may have on future 787s orders and how to mitigate.  Certainly, Boeing can improve the fuel efficiency of the -8 by continuing to take weight out of the aircraft as well as incorporating improvements from the 787-9 flight test program.  Boeing can also start equipping the -8 with the same hybrid laminar flow control technology that will be standard on the 787-9 and 787-10.  Adding this can make the 787-8 more attractive to customers when it comes to a decision between the A330neo and the 787-8.  As far as I know Airbus is not installing the technology on the A330neo as it is still trying to develop the technology.  While the A330neo has garnered 121 orders during the airshow, 50 of these is to Air Asia which only buys Airbus, and most of the rest were to lessors all of whom already have the 787 in their portfolio.  We will only know which aircraft will be preferred by operators when there is a head to head competition of the two airplanes for airline orders.  One such competition is coming up later this year when Delta will look to refresh its widebody fleet. Delta inherited Northwest Airline's 18 787-8 order when the two companies merged thus it will be interesting to see how this will be factored into the final decision by Delta's fleet managers and board.

Here's the final order tally from Farnborough (Boeing vs. Airbus only):

Boeing
Okay Airlines - 6 x 737Max8 (Firm), 4 x 737-800 (Firm)
Monarch - 30 x 737Max8 (LoI)
Avolon - 6 x 787-9 (LoI), 5 x 737Max9 (LoI)
Air Lease Corp - 6 x 777-300ER (Firm), 20 x 737Max8 (Firm)
Intrepid Aviation - 6 x 777-300ER (LoI)
CIT - 10 x 787-9 (Firm)
Hainan Airlines - 50 x 737Max8 (LoI)
MG Aviation - 2 x 787-9 (firm)
Qatar Airways - 50 x 777-9X (Firm), 4 x 777F (LoI)
Air Algerie - 2 x 737-700C (Firm)

Airbus
Air Lease Corp - 25 x A330-900neo (LoI), 60 x A320neo (Firm)
AerCap - 50 x A320neo (Firm)
IAG - 20 x A320neo (Firm)
AirAsiaX - 50 x A330-900neo (LoI)
Avolon - 15 x A330neo (LoI)
BOC Aviation - 43 x A320neo
CIT - 15 x A330neo (LoI), 5 x A321neo (LoI)
SMBC Aviation - 110 x A320neo (Firm), 5x A320 (Firm)
Air Mauritius - 4 x A350-900 (LoI)
Hong Kong Aviation - 40 x A320neo (Firm), 30 x A321neo (Firm)
Transaero - 12 x A330neo (LoI), 8 x A330 (LoI)
Unidentified - 4 x A330neo (LoI)

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

Boeing contractually delivers first 787-9 to Air New Zealand

Boeing has delivered the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand today in a contractual delivery.  As I had earlier reported, Boeing was planning to deliver the first 787-9 ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) but the aircraft will not leave for another 9 to 10 days or so while the airlines' staff undergoes further training in Everett.

This delivery is the first of 12 787-9s that I expect Boeing will deliver this year and represents a silver lining for the company's flagship commercial aircraft program.  Though some dark clouds do remain.  I had expect Boeing to have started ETOPs/F & R testing on the 787-9 equipped with the GE GEnX-1B engines well by now word is that this won't start until later in July.  United Airlines will be the first customer to receive the GE powered version of the -9 and this was expected to be delivered at the end of July.  Now I believe the delivery won't occur until late August. 

Boeing should deliver another 787-9 to ANA in July (ZB197, LN 146, JA830A) will be delivered to the airline by around the third week of July.  The delivery of 787-9s in 2014 should be as follows:

ANA#1 - 7/2014

UA#1 - 8/2014

ANA#2 - 8/2014

ANZ#2 - 9/2014

Virgin#1 - 9/2014

UA#2 - 10/2014

Etihad#1 - 10/2014

ANZ#3 - 10/2014

Scoot#1 - 11/2014

Virgin#2 - 11/2014

Etihad#2 - 12/2014

 

In June Boeing, thus far, has posted an impressive 14 787 deliveries though there may be one more which I am working to confirm and the total may end up being 15 total 787s delivered in June.  This is the greatest number of 787s delivered in any one month since December of last year which saw 11 aircraft delivered.  If there is one more delivery tomorrow, Boeing would have delivered 48 787s through the first 6 months of 2014 and 162 overall since deliveries began in September 2011.  Boeing is aiming to deliver at least another 62 787s in the last 6 months though they will try for a number as high as 74 in the last 6 months which will include a few more early build 787s.  Though the 787 deliveries started 2014 very weekly, the program did finish the 2nd quarter in very strong fashion.  It remains to be seen if they finish 2014 in a similar way.

 

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

 

Boeing South Carolina achieves 3/month 787 production rate.

Boeing revealed to its employees yesterday that the South Carolina plant has achieved the planned 787 production rate of 3 airplanes/month when ZA660 (LN 224, 5Y-KZF) entered into position 0 on the final assembly line in plant 88-30 on June 24th.  This aircraft is destined for Kenya Airways and should deliver around September of this year.  I am assuming that Everett will slow down to 7/month given the rate change.  This means that Charleston should load a new 787 every 10 days while Everett will load a 787 every 8.6 days for each line (40-26 and 40-24).

This was an important milestone for this plant especially in light of a muckraking report in a certain Seattle newspaper this past week. 

Boeing managers hope to complete a 787 from loading into the first position to roll out in about 38 days at the new rate.  Prior to the step up in rate, the South Carolina plant was building a 787 in about 46 days and a year ago it was at 70 days. 

The plant will also start building its first 787-9 when ZB170 (LN 269) is loaded into position sometime this fall.  The aircraft will go to United Airlines sometime in March of 2015.

 

The signs of progress at Boeing South Carolina counters a false belief that the plant and its workers are not up to the challenge of building the 787 in sufficient quantities and quality that would justify the investment that was and is continuing to be made by the company.  As recently as this past week a newspaper report slammed the Boeing South Carolina workers and cast doubt on their ability to make the 787 especially in light of the bonuses that were just paid out to them for reducing the JBS (jobs behind schedule) or other wise known as travelled work. It is my understanding that the JBS number as tracked by Boeing is remaining at a flat rate.  It does appear that some people in the media are looking to highlight every mistake and incident in order to sell newspapers rather than looking at the whole story in proper context.

I attempt to put some context to the 787 production story in the form of a table that I've put together comparing number of 787s that have entered final assembly, finished final assembly and have been delivered.  The table looks at these attributes for Everett, Charleston as well as the total for both plants.

Looking at the table one can see that both plants are producing at their respective assigned rates in terms of loadings and roll outs.  We should ignore January and February as both plants were essentially ramping back up after the 2013 holidays as is  evident from the tables with the low number of loadings, rolls outs, and deliveries.  However starting in March Boeing South Carolina loaded, on average, 2.75 aircraft per month, rolled out an average of 3.25 aircraft per month and delivered an average of 2.5 aircraft per month.  This is through June 25th and I do expect at least one more delivery from North Charleston this month.

Everett has a much higher work load but during the same period the plant has loaded an average of 8 airplanes per month, rolled out an average of 8 airplanes per month and has delivered and average of 6 airplanes per month.  To look at it a different way, I take the average roll outs divided by the average deliveries in order to gauge how efficient each plant is in building and delivering 787s and this is what I have from March through June 25th:

Everett = 8/6 = 1.33
Charleston = 3.25/2.5 = 1.3

The lower the number the more efficient the plant is in building and delivering aircraft.  This shows that Charleston looks to be slightly more efficient in delivering the 787.  Please note that this is a little incomplete as we have to complete the month of June and there is at least one more 787 line move in Everett to come as well as more deliveries from each location.  Additionally, this tables ignores where the aircraft was delivered from, i.e. Charleston built aircraft for Qatar but delivered from Everett was a delivery from Charleston.
 

787 Production and Delivery Trend Table

 

 

 

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 

Revised June Delivery Estimate For 787

In my previous post, I estimated that Boeing could deliver about 14 787s in June.  New information now leads me to revise that estimate upwards to as many as 16 though it is quite possible that some of these deliveries can spill over into July for delivery.  They have already delivered 8 thus far in June.


Obviously with the quarter end coming up, Boeing wants to book as many deliveries and income as possible, thus this is the rationale for the push to deliver as many as possible.


Given the new information here is a list of aircraft that I believe can be delivered in the next 10 days:


ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV)
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) - this plane should deliver at the end of the month but expect it to stay in Everett until July 10th for crew training.
ZA219 (LN 175, VK-VKF) - this plane also should deliver at the end of the month but the delivery may spill over to July.
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) - should deliver around 6/24.
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) - should also deliver around 6/24.
ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG) - this aircraft still needs to conduct its first flight but is tentatively scheduled to be delivered at the end of this month.
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA)  - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.
ZA321 (LN 191, G-TUIE) - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.


If Boeing can deliver all 8 then they would have achieved 50 787 deliveries in the first 6 months of 2014 and will have put themselves in a good position to deliver 60 to 70 more in the second half of the year.

 

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 

Boeing increases 787 production flight testing

Over the past few weeks, Boeing has been aggressively flying production 787s on Boeing and customer flight tests.  In June, Boeing has conducted seven B-1 flights on the production 787s and I do think that they can fly at least 4 more before the end of the month. This should include one aircraft for British Airways, ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG), a BBJ for the Saudi Ministry of Finance, ZA779 (LN 193, HZ-MF8), one for United Airlines, ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) which will be used for 787-9/GEnX F&R/ETOPs testing and one for Qatar Airways, ZA474 (LN 188, A7-BCO).  ZA456 did file a flight plan on June 17th but the aircraft did not fly).


There was a large up tick in flight activity during the last week or so which leads me to believe the Boeing is going for an all out push to deliver around 14 787s this month.  They have already delivered 6 this month including the last 787 for China Southern Airlines from their order of 10 aircraft.




As for deliveries for the rest of this month, in my opinion this is the aircraft I see being delivered in the next 12 days:


ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV) for Ethiopian
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) for Air New Zealand (1st 787-9 delivery)
ZA473 (LN 176, A7-BCN) for Qatar Airways
ZA580 (LN 183, EI-LNG) for ILFC/Norwegian
ZA656 (LN 184, 5Y-KZB) for Kenya Airways
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) for LAN
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) for United Airlines
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA) for ILFC/Thai (may not deliver until July)


Boeing does need to deliver many of these planes as ramp space is quickly being filled at both Everett and Charleston. There are about 30 planes that are outside on the flightlines, paint hangars and other spots at the two assembly locations but if the current pace of flight activity continues then much of that ramp space should be cleared over the next couple of weeks and occupied by aircraft that will be coming out of final assembly.  It does seem that Boeing has a pretty good handle on the assembly aspect but the build quality still has to improve a bit in order to avoid inventories from creeping higher again. 


Lastly, one additional note to my previous post regarding the 787-9.  The FAA has certified this aircraft for ETOPS 330 thus fulfilling Boeing's promise to Air New Zealand to deliver the ETOPS certified aircraft.

 

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 

FAA and EASA certifies the 787-9

Boeing announced this morning that the FAA and EASA has certified the 787-9 clearing the way for the first delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand.  The first aircraft for the carrier is already undergoing production flight tests and should deliver in about 2 weeks.


Air New Zealand has ordered the Rolls Royce powered aircraft.  Boeing has yet to start F&R/ETOPs testing on the GE powered version of the aircraft but that should start this month.  I still believe that Boeing should deliver the first GE powered 787-9 to United Airlines late next month.


There has been some questions if the FAA would grant the Amended Type certificate to Boeing due to two separate issues: 1) a need to re-design a capacitor in the RAT and 2) an altitude select knob on the Mode Control Panel (MCP) that doesn't have enough torque and can lead to an error in setting attitude as directed by ATC.  Boeing has asked for a time limited exemptions from these two issues and apparently the FAA and EASA has agreed.  Flightglobal has an a detailed explanation of the issues in an article here.


I do anticipate that Boeing will be able to deliver 12 787-9 this year as follows:


Air New Zealand - 3
ANA - 2
Etihad Airways - 2
Scoot - 1
United Airlines - 2
Virgin Atlantic - 2


Here's Boeing Press Release announcing the award of the Amended Type Certificate:

Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner Earns FAA, EASA Certification

Newest commercial airplane nears delivery on track

EVERETT, Wash., June 16, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787-9 Dreamliner has been certified by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) for commercial service. Boeing is now in the final stages of preparing for the first 787-9 delivery to launch customer Air New Zealand.

"Certification is the culmination of years of hard work and a rigorous flight-test program that started with the 787-9's first flight last September," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "With this validation that the airplane is ready for commercial operations, Boeing along with our airline and leasing customers now look forward to introducing the newest member of the Dreamliner family to passengers around the world."

To earn certification for the 787-9, Boeing undertook a comprehensive test program with five airplanes and more than 1,500 hours of flight testing, plus ground and laboratory testing. Following the rigorous and thorough certification process, the FAA and EASA each granted Boeing an Amended Type Certificate for the 787-9, certifying that the design complies with aviation regulations and is safe and reliable.

"Throughout 787-9 development, the dedication and discipline of our entire global team drove outstanding performance," said Mark Jenks, vice president, 787 Airplane Development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "From the start of assembly last spring to a flawless first flight and now our on-time certification, we thank everyone on the Boeing and partner team as well as our customers for making 787-9 development so successful."

The FAA also has granted Boeing an Amended Production Certificate, validating that the Boeing production system can produce 787-9s that conform to the design. EASA accepts FAA oversight of Boeing production certificates, just as the FAA accepts EASA oversight of European manufacturers' production certificates.

The new 787-9 Dreamliner will complement and extend the super-efficient 787 family. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters) over the 787-8, the 787-9 will fly more passengers and more cargo farther with the same exceptional environmental performance — 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes. The 787-9 leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering passengers features such as large windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

Twenty-six customers around the world have ordered 413 787-9s, accounting for 40 percent of all 787 orders.

787 Production Update - June 2014

Thus far through the end of May Boeing has delivered 33 787s.  With 7 months to go in the year, Boeing needs to ramp up the delivery rate if it is to deliver 110 787s by the end of the year.  That means they have to deliver 77 aircraft in the last 7 months...11/month delivery rate.

May Review

 

May was a disappointing month.  I was expecting at least 10 deliveries and Boeing managed 7. If the theme sounds familiar it's because it is.  There is an expectations that Boeing delivery rate will match the 787 build rate which currently is at 10/month though the airplanes that have emerged from final assembly still have minor travelled work that needs to be completed.  An interesting side to the delivery story for May though.  Boeing, it seems had delivered 2 787s to Air India last month while the official tally on Boeing's Order and Delivery website show that they delivered 1 to the carrier.  Sources have confirmed to me that Boeing did indeed make contractual delivery of ZA232 (LN 28, VT-ANC) though this aircraft still remains in Charleston.  The reason for this is still unknown.

 

June Preview

 

Boeing has ramped up 787 flight activity significantly and has delivered 4 787s through the first 10 days of June.  Some of these deliveries were slated for May but had rolled into June.  Boeing will need to deliver at least 7 more 787s which, at least for now, looks like they can accomplish easily.  They currently have 11 787s that are in production testing or that are ready for delivery.  I do think that 8 to 9 of those can be delivered this month.  Boeing should deliver the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand on June 30th pending a decision by the FAA (see below).  ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) has been flying lately and should be ready for delivery in the next couple of weeks.  Boeing will probably run a few more flight than they typically do in order to work out all the bugs and make sure that the aircraft has sufficient maturity to enter airline service.

 

787-9

 

Flightglobal revealed that Boeing is asking the FAA for a waiver in order to deliver the 787-9. The request is related to two items that are not compliant with the certification standards that Boeing and the FAA agreed to concerning the 787-9.  Boeing is scheduled to deliver ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE), the first 787-9, to Air New Zealand on June 30th.  The two issues are 1) a capacitor in the ram Air turbine (RAT) that failed during a flight test.  This capacitor needs to be redesign and certified for use on the aircraft.  The second issues relates to a dial on a control panel in the cockpit of the aircraft.  The dial is altitude select knob that is used in the vertical flight mode.  The dial can be inadvertently rotate 1 or 2 stops beyond the desired setting if the pilot just presses the knob and thus violate altitude range set by the ATC.  There is a lack of sufficient torque that is causing this issue.  This will be watched closely to see what the FAA will do but it is concerning especially since the 787-9 flight testing has gone so well.  Boeing doesn't want to deliver this aircraft late even by a few weeks let alone a few months.

 

Most of the 787-9 testing appears to have been completed though Boeing still has to undertake F&R/ETOPs flight testing using an production aircraft equipped with the GE  GEnX-1B engines.  I anticipate that ZB167 (LN 181, N38950) should take to the air within the next 10 to 14 days and should fly a comparable number of hours as ZB197 (LN146, JA830A).

 

Charleston Production Ramp Up

 

Boeing is preparing to ramp up the 787 production at Charleston to 3/month from the current 2.  This switch should take place in early to mid July.  Boeing is currently loading a 787 into Position 1A every 12 to 13 days. They will need to load one every 10 days but the number of available assembly spots to conduct assembly activities has been reduced to 6 from 8 as two positions are undergoing construction (Position 1B and Position 6).

 

ETOPS 330

 

Boeing did get some good news from the FAA last month when the approved the 787-8 for ETOPS 330.  This means the 787-8 can operate from an airport that is no further than five and half hours flying time in case of an emergency.  This means the carriers can fly more direct and fuel efficient routes, especially over the Pacific and fully take advantage of the 787s capabilities.  It is now up to the local civil aviation regulators to approve or deny the airlines that are under their oversight to fly the 787 under ETOPS 330.  The 787-9 will not receive this certification until much later but it will probably be Boeing's next major certification as Air New Zealand is eager to have the aircraft certified for ETOPS 330.  I do not know when Boeing plans to achieve ETOPS 330 certification for the 787-9.

 

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 

787 Production Update - May 2014

Boeing is progressing well to deliver 10 787s this month.  Today (May 23rd), Boeing delivered Air India's 14th Dreamliner, moving them more than half way to completing the carriers 27 aircraft order.  This is also probably one of the last early build airplanes that will be delivered for a few months (ZA232, LN 28, VT-ANC). They have delivered 5 787s thus far in May.

Rumor has it that Boeing will be looking to deliver anywhere from 2 to 4 more early build 787s including one to Korean Air.  Late last year, Korean Air placed an order for a single 787-8, which is unusual as they have an order for 10 787-9.  This order was for a single early build 787-8.  Why they bought only one is still a mystery given their extensive route network.  It is entirely possible that this aircraft will be solely used on Korean's domestic network.

For the rest of month, Boeing should be able to deliver 5 more this month. I had previously mentioned that ANA should get one delivered this month but now it will be delivered in June. This will also include the first 787-9 delivered to Air New Zealand on June 30th.

Boeing should deliver to Air India, Ethiopian, British Airways, Norwegian (ILFC), and Hainan.  Next month should see the same number of deliveries as this month.  It appears that Boeing will be looking to try to deliver more than the 110 787s that they have stated in their guidance.the number could be closer 120 but it will all depend on production execution.  Additionally 12 of these aircraft should be 787-9.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries



 

Boeing talks 787 during Investors Conference

During yesterday's Investor's Day conference, Boeing addressed the 787 and the ongoing issues still facing that program.  While the tone was upbeat, the theme was risk and cost reduction throughout the 787 program. Boeing stated that they are continuing to de-risk the 787 program because of the maturity and stabilization of the production system.  However, my concern with that it is not only the stabilization of the production system that needs to occur but improvement in build quality of the 787.  Currently it appears that it takes Boeing about 100 to 110 days from the start of final assembly to delivery of the 787 though there are outliers both under 100 days and over 110 days.  While I do not have any comparable numbers to another program like the 777 it is, without a doubt, crucial that this metric is going to be key to improving efficiencies, de-risking the program and improving margins that Boeing is looking to accomplish with the 787.  Boeing CFO, Greg Smith, stated that the 787-8 has improved unit cost by 15% over the last one year and final assembly flow time improved by 10% during the same period.  The 787-9 has seen both unit cost and flow time improve by 30% since the first unit entered final assembly last year.  So it does appear the final assembly flow time is coming down but again build quality is still going to be important going forward and Boeing has not addressed.


During the conference Jim McNerney addressed the need to do a 757 replacement and he gave a clear indication that the replacement will not be a clean sheet design but a using one of the current platforms that Boeing has designing a derivative to fulfill that need.  He did specifically mention the 787 as one of the those platforms (in addition to the 737).


Boeing is also looking to leverage the highly successful development of the 787-9 for the 787-10.  Approximately 90% of the 787-10 will share commonality with the 787-9 thus greatly reducing the development cost of that aircraft.


In terms of service reliability, Boeing states that they are hitting around 98 to 98.5 but want to be well into the 99% range (99.5%) but are not there yet.  They haven't stated on how they're going to get there and the reliability rate really in unchanged from the last reported rate which Boeing gave during their 1st quarter earning report.


On the production front, Boeing is about to increase the rate at Charleston from 2/month to 3/month.  This rate break should occur around early to mid July and we would also see a commensurate reduction in the rate at Everett from 8/month to 7/month.  Boeing is confident that they can now do this as the production system is stable despite the issues with the mid-body fuselage build in 88-20.


Charleston will also start assembling the 787-9 starting around November of December for delivery in the first quarter of 2015.  As for the remainder of the year see my spreadsheets for the 2014 78 delivery projections.  I'm still agreeing with Boeing's guidance for 110.  I believe 11 of these will be 787-9s.


Lastly, it appears that Boeing may have completed F&R/ETOPs testing for the Rolls Royce powered 787-9.  ZA197 (LN 146, JA830A) flew back to Everett last night and it may have to go through a short period of re-work before being delivered to ANA.  Air New Zealand should get the first one around late June to early July with United expected to receive their first 787-9 in mid to late July.  787-9 flights have slowed noticeably in the last week so I believe that Boeing is close to if not finished with flight testing.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries



 

May 787 deliveries still slow half way through the month

With less than 2 weeks remaining in the month, Boeing has delivered only 3 787s to customers including the 1st to Air Canada.  The total seems anemic but Boeing has been known to finish the month strong by delivering 78s in the last 7 to 10 days of the month.  I don't think this month will be an exception but the company won't be able to deliver 12 aircraft that I predicted earlier.  I do see them delivering 10 in May including the ones that have already been delivered.

Here's my revised delivery projections:

Air India - 2 (ZA232, ZA244)
ANA - 1 (ZA136)
British Airways - 1 (ZA455)
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 (ZA265)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (ZA437)
ILFC/Norwegian - 1 (ZA579)

This number is still 1 short (actually .5 airplanes short) of what Boeing needs to deliver for the remainder of the year if they need to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries.

While there has been a number of B-1 flights earlier this month, Boeing still has to increase the tempo in order to prepare for June deliveries.

To date Boeing has delivered 143 total 787s, 29 in 2014 and 3 thus far in May.

Lastly, ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) flew back to Everett today from Boeing Field.  It seems that he flight testing it was conducting to certify software changes on a production standard aircraft is complete.  The aircraft will probably be cleaned up and prepared for customer test flights be fore being delivered to Hainan.
Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 

Enhancements to the 787 spreadsheet

In order to enhance the information that  I present on my spreadsheet, I'm attempting to track the certain metrics to help understand how the 787 program is doing.  It all has to do with time and the amount of it that the 787 spends on being assembled, tested and finally delivered to customers.  I'm tracking the time the aircraft spends in final assembly, the time it spends in pre-flight and the amount of time in production flight tests.

Unfortunately I don't have all the information that I need for all the aircraft particularly the dates that the aircraft loads into final assembly and the date that the aircraft exits final assembly.  If there was traveled work or time needed for change incorporation, that is lumped into the pre-flight time....it's easier that way instead of trying to track when each airframe is where at a particular point in time.

If anyone has any information they can share, it is appreciated.  Please check out the spreadsheet below and you'll see which information I am missing.

Full 787 List

 

Boeing delivers Air Canada's 1st 787

Boeing has made contractual delivery of Air Canada's first 787-8 yesterday.  The aircraft ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) will remain at Everett until May 18th when it will fly to Air Canada's base at Toronto's Pearson International Airport.
Air Canada has two more 787s that have been assembled though it appears that one of them was damaged in a forklift incident during seat loading at the EMC.  This aircraft, ZA612 (LN 174, C-GHPU) is still at the EMC though it is outside on the ramp.  ZA611 (LN 170, C-GHPT) is still on the Boeing Everett Flightline awaiting its B-1 flight.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries