787 Production Update - May 2014

Boeing is progressing well to deliver 10 787s this month.  Today (May 23rd), Boeing delivered Air India's 14th Dreamliner, moving them more than half way to completing the carriers 27 aircraft order.  This is also probably one of the last early build airplanes that will be delivered for a few months (ZA232, LN 28, VT-ANC). They have delivered 5 787s thus far in May.

Rumor has it that Boeing will be looking to deliver anywhere from 2 to 4 more early build 787s including one to Korean Air.  Late last year, Korean Air placed an order for a single 787-8, which is unusual as they have an order for 10 787-9.  This order was for a single early build 787-8.  Why they bought only one is still a mystery given their extensive route network.  It is entirely possible that this aircraft will be solely used on Korean's domestic network.

For the rest of month, Boeing should be able to deliver 5 more this month. I had previously mentioned that ANA should get one delivered this month but now it will be delivered in June. This will also include the first 787-9 delivered to Air New Zealand on June 30th.

Boeing should deliver to Air India, Ethiopian, British Airways, Norwegian (ILFC), and Hainan.  Next month should see the same number of deliveries as this month.  It appears that Boeing will be looking to try to deliver more than the 110 787s that they have stated in their guidance.the number could be closer 120 but it will all depend on production execution.  Additionally 12 of these aircraft should be 787-9.

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Boeing talks 787 during Investors Conference

During yesterday's Investor's Day conference, Boeing addressed the 787 and the ongoing issues still facing that program.  While the tone was upbeat, the theme was risk and cost reduction throughout the 787 program. Boeing stated that they are continuing to de-risk the 787 program because of the maturity and stabilization of the production system.  However, my concern with that it is not only the stabilization of the production system that needs to occur but improvement in build quality of the 787.  Currently it appears that it takes Boeing about 100 to 110 days from the start of final assembly to delivery of the 787 though there are outliers both under 100 days and over 110 days.  While I do not have any comparable numbers to another program like the 777 it is, without a doubt, crucial that this metric is going to be key to improving efficiencies, de-risking the program and improving margins that Boeing is looking to accomplish with the 787.  Boeing CFO, Greg Smith, stated that the 787-8 has improved unit cost by 15% over the last one year and final assembly flow time improved by 10% during the same period.  The 787-9 has seen both unit cost and flow time improve by 30% since the first unit entered final assembly last year.  So it does appear the final assembly flow time is coming down but again build quality is still going to be important going forward and Boeing has not addressed.


During the conference Jim McNerney addressed the need to do a 757 replacement and he gave a clear indication that the replacement will not be a clean sheet design but a using one of the current platforms that Boeing has designing a derivative to fulfill that need.  He did specifically mention the 787 as one of the those platforms (in addition to the 737).


Boeing is also looking to leverage the highly successful development of the 787-9 for the 787-10.  Approximately 90% of the 787-10 will share commonality with the 787-9 thus greatly reducing the development cost of that aircraft.


In terms of service reliability, Boeing states that they are hitting around 98 to 98.5 but want to be well into the 99% range (99.5%) but are not there yet.  They haven't stated on how they're going to get there and the reliability rate really in unchanged from the last reported rate which Boeing gave during their 1st quarter earning report.


On the production front, Boeing is about to increase the rate at Charleston from 2/month to 3/month.  This rate break should occur around early to mid July and we would also see a commensurate reduction in the rate at Everett from 8/month to 7/month.  Boeing is confident that they can now do this as the production system is stable despite the issues with the mid-body fuselage build in 88-20.


Charleston will also start assembling the 787-9 starting around November of December for delivery in the first quarter of 2015.  As for the remainder of the year see my spreadsheets for the 2014 78 delivery projections.  I'm still agreeing with Boeing's guidance for 110.  I believe 11 of these will be 787-9s.


Lastly, it appears that Boeing may have completed F&R/ETOPs testing for the Rolls Royce powered 787-9.  ZA197 (LN 146, JA830A) flew back to Everett last night and it may have to go through a short period of re-work before being delivered to ANA.  Air New Zealand should get the first one around late June to early July with United expected to receive their first 787-9 in mid to late July.  787-9 flights have slowed noticeably in the last week so I believe that Boeing is close to if not finished with flight testing.


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May 787 deliveries still slow half way through the month

With less than 2 weeks remaining in the month, Boeing has delivered only 3 787s to customers including the 1st to Air Canada.  The total seems anemic but Boeing has been known to finish the month strong by delivering 78s in the last 7 to 10 days of the month.  I don't think this month will be an exception but the company won't be able to deliver 12 aircraft that I predicted earlier.  I do see them delivering 10 in May including the ones that have already been delivered.

Here's my revised delivery projections:

Air India - 2 (ZA232, ZA244)
ANA - 1 (ZA136)
British Airways - 1 (ZA455)
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 (ZA265)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (ZA437)
ILFC/Norwegian - 1 (ZA579)

This number is still 1 short (actually .5 airplanes short) of what Boeing needs to deliver for the remainder of the year if they need to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries.

While there has been a number of B-1 flights earlier this month, Boeing still has to increase the tempo in order to prepare for June deliveries.

To date Boeing has delivered 143 total 787s, 29 in 2014 and 3 thus far in May.

Lastly, ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) flew back to Everett today from Boeing Field.  It seems that he flight testing it was conducting to certify software changes on a production standard aircraft is complete.  The aircraft will probably be cleaned up and prepared for customer test flights be fore being delivered to Hainan.
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Enhancements to the 787 spreadsheet

In order to enhance the information that  I present on my spreadsheet, I'm attempting to track the certain metrics to help understand how the 787 program is doing.  It all has to do with time and the amount of it that the 787 spends on being assembled, tested and finally delivered to customers.  I'm tracking the time the aircraft spends in final assembly, the time it spends in pre-flight and the amount of time in production flight tests.

Unfortunately I don't have all the information that I need for all the aircraft particularly the dates that the aircraft loads into final assembly and the date that the aircraft exits final assembly.  If there was traveled work or time needed for change incorporation, that is lumped into the pre-flight time....it's easier that way instead of trying to track when each airframe is where at a particular point in time.

If anyone has any information they can share, it is appreciated.  Please check out the spreadsheet below and you'll see which information I am missing.

Full 787 List

 

Boeing delivers Air Canada's 1st 787

Boeing has made contractual delivery of Air Canada's first 787-8 yesterday.  The aircraft ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) will remain at Everett until May 18th when it will fly to Air Canada's base at Toronto's Pearson International Airport.
Air Canada has two more 787s that have been assembled though it appears that one of them was damaged in a forklift incident during seat loading at the EMC.  This aircraft, ZA612 (LN 174, C-GHPU) is still at the EMC though it is outside on the ramp.  ZA611 (LN 170, C-GHPT) is still on the Boeing Everett Flightline awaiting its B-1 flight.


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Boeing ends April with strong 787 deliveries but still behind planned delivery pace

What was appearing to be an anemic month for 787 deliveries was actually a strong one for the aircraft program.  I was expecting about 5 to  deliveries but Boeing finished strong with 8 deliveries, 5 on the last day of the month.  That is the good news, the bad news is that to keep pace for 110 deliveries in 2014, Boeing needed to have delivered 37 787s in the first 4 months of the year.  They have delivered 26 through April 30th. In order to hit the 110 delivery mark, Boeing will have to average 10.5 deliveries per month for the remainder of the year.  Certainly this is an attainable goal but the pace thus far hasn't really looked promising. There are a number of 787s at both Everett and Charleston that have been waiting, patiently for their B-1 flight.  Thus far there has been only 2 B-1 flights though it is early in the month.  However to keep pace with 10.5 deliveries per month, Boeing does need to conduct far more B-1 flights and get these aircraft into production flight testing.


A bit of good news is that it appears that build quality is improving as there are far fewer test flights that need to be conducted (including customer flights) before the planes are formally delivered.  In April, of the 8 planes that were delivered 6 airplanes required an average of 3.5 flights before they were delivered.  I purposely excluded the two Qatar deliveries as they are considered outliers compared to the rest of the customer base.  This certainly bodes well for the 787 delivery rate if Boeing can keep the build quality high and thus get the aircraft into customer's hands faster.


For deliveries in May, Boeing has already delivered one 787 to Ethiopian, the airlines' 6th Dreamliner.  I can see the deliveries shaking out as follows:




Air Canada - 2
Air India - 2
ANA - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 2 (1 delivered already)
Hainan - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 1




Of course, many of there deliveries are predicated on several of these aircraft starting the flight test program soon (there's only 23 days left in this month).  Already, a British Airways' 787 (ZA454, LN 173, G-ZBJE) has conducted (or is conducting at press time) its C-1 flight. The next one week will help further understand what delivery rate Boeing will achieve this month.




A Word About the 787-9


Boeing continues to execute well on the 787-9 flight test and certification program.  Last month Boeing started F&R and ETOPs testing on a production 787-9 eventually destined for ANA.  ZB197 has been flying regularly in order to have certification ready by next month and delivery of Air New Zealand's for 787-9 to be made around mid July.  Word is that because of Boeing strict disciplined approach to designing and testing this aircraft, that delivery should be made on time.  Boeing will also probably fly ZB167 (LN 181, N19951) which will conduct the same F&R/ETOPs testing though on the GE engines.  This aircraft is currently in paint and should fly by the end of this month to support 1st delivery of the GEnx-1B powered 787-9 later this year.  It is rumored that ZB167 should deliver to United in July as well.




Production


As stated in my previous post, Boeing looks to be putting the Mitsubishi wing issues behind it as at this point should not be a show stopper for deliveries.  Great progress was also made on reducing the travelled work from the Charleston mid-body fuselage plant (88-20) to point that there are no more than 150 minor JBS (jobs behind schedule) that need to be completed on the 787s coming out of final assembly.  To underscore this point, Boeing is doesn't appear to be sending 787s coming off the two lines in Everett to the EMC but instead are going to the 40-51 ramp where the remaining JBS are completed and then the aircraft is taken to paint and then to the flightline where it will be prepared to enter the flight testing program.  This is huge news and it appears the hard work has figuratively and literally paid off as the Boeing workers in Charleston will be paid a nice bonus in a few days for bringing down the JBS from about 8,000.  It will now be up to Boeing's managers to make sure that the JBS doesn't become unmanageable while the production rate steadies at 10/month.


Lastly, some of you have noticed that ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) for Hainan has been flying a lot out of Boeing Field in Seattle.  While I do not have confirmation, I suspect that this aircraft is performing flight and certification tests on the revised software for the 787 in order to reduce the number of false warnings and improve flight dispatch reliability through out the 787 fleet.  Some earlier testing was done on the 787-9 but it does appear that Boeing is doing these tests on a production standard aircraft.  The fact that the airplane is flying out of Boeing Field where Boeing Test Flight is based lends some more credence to my theory.




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1st Air Canada 787 expected to be delivered in second week of May

Air Canada is expected to take delivery of its first 787 around May 12th subject to successful completion of all flight testing activities. ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) flew 3 test flights already though the 1st one had to be cut off 5 minutes after takeoff due to some packing foam left in a duct as well as a leaking door seal.  Both issues have been rectified.  ZA610 should conduct the 1st customer flight (C-1) on April 30th as an Air Canada crew is already in Everett to prepare for the customer flight(s) and to take the aircraft back to Toronto.  Delivery is scheduled for May 12th but the aircraft is to remain at in Everett until May 18th when it will fly away to Toronto.  The aircraft will have some special events and well as conduct some flight operations in Toronto but will start flying commercially on May 21st between Toronto and Montreal and Toronto to Zurich after that.  It is due to commence its regular run between Toronto and Haneda-Tokyo on July 1st.

Meanwhile April 787 deliveries are looking to be limited to about 5 to 6 aircraft in total.  Norwegian may have taken delivery of its 2nd fully owned 787 today and Qatar, it appears are trying to get their 13th 787 delivered before the end of the month.  There were two test flights for ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) today, April 28 which indicates that they are trying to get in under the wire. Undoubtedly the the reason for the low delivery rate this month was due to the wing issues as well as the travelled work.  I do think deliveries should rebound next month as the issues are slowly being put behind them.  There were a couple more B-1 flights in the last couple of days.  Production flight tempo seems to have increased slightly but as long as it is maintained then May deliveries should be good.  Boeing needs to deliver between 12 ad 14 787s in May to stay on target for 110 Dreamliner deliveries this year.


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All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries


 

Boeing details 787 progress during 1st quarter earnings call

Yesterday Boeing released its 1s quarter earnings which topped analyst expectations.  The 787 deliveries has contributed significantly to the improved bottom line and Boeing was more than happy to share the progress on the 787 program.

Boeing noted that they hit the 10/month production rate fully during the quarter but also have completed the preliminary design review on the 787-10.  Boeing will now proceed with the detail design of the 787-10 which is expected to enter production around 2016.

The production rate has stabilized at both Charleston and Everett which will also help them stabilize the delivery rate.  Boeing did note that there will be continued variance in the delivery rate as they are there are 18 customers receiving their first 787 this year and typically those customers have different requirements and testing that need to be done as well as differences in financing the final payment.  They did reiterate that they will deliver 110 787s this year. So far through today (April 24, 2014) they have delivered 21 787s.  I believe they can deliver at least 2 more, possibly 3 this month for a total of 23 to 24 for the year and 5 to 6 for the month of April.  Obviously they will need to pick it up in the later months going forward.  The lack of deliveries to Air Canada, I believe, hurt their April delivery number which could have added at least 2 more to that monthly total.  IT is rumored that the delays are attributable to issues with the IFE though it is not confirmed.

As mentioned earlier, Boeing said that the production system has stabilized.  The two issues that have also contributed to slower deliveries was the wing issue by Mitsubishi and the increase in travelled work on the mid body fuselage.  With regards to the former, Boeing said that there are only 3 more aircraft that need to be inspected and fixed thus that issue is largely behind them.  On the later, there has been a great improvement in the reduction of the number of open jobs.  Sources have confirmed this to me to be true but that there is still some improvement needed with regards to the travelled work.  It does appear that there are fewer aircraft going to the EMC and are actually going to the ramp to finish off the minor jobs still opened and then proceeding to the paint hangar.

The 787-9 testing is also going really well and Boeing is still maintaining first delivery in the middle of the year.  The 6th 787-9 to be built just rolled out of final assembly.  This is ZB167 that will be delivered to United Airlines in July.  This aircraft will participate in the flight testing program as well and I anticipate that it should start flying around the middle of next month.  It will undertake F&R/ETOPs testing with the GE GEnx-1B engines.  Boeing also said that unit cost for the 787-9 have improved 30% between the first and 6th 787-9 which is tremendous.  It should continue to drop as more aircraft are introduced into the production system and the assembly has stabilized.  However Boeing is expecting that most of the production over the next couple of years will be 787-8 vs. 787-9.

Lastly, dispatch reliability is continuing to trend above 98% but Boeing still is not satisfied and will be looking to get that above 99% which is not expected to happen until later this summer when improved software is introduced to the 787 fleet.

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2014 787 delivery prediction and production update

Thus far though the 1st quarter of 2014 Boeing seems to be on track to deliver between 100 and 110 787s.  Aircraft are still entering final assembly at a rate of about 10 to 11 per month which is good but the backlog of completed 787s around Everett has been growing.  That said, last month Boeing delivered 10 787s and they will have to average that rate for the last 3 quarters of this year.

So given the available information that is out there, I put together my best estimate of who will get a 787 this year and how many.  Some of these will be 787-9 deliveries to ANA, Air New Zealand, Scoot, Virgin and possibly American Airlines.  Additionally, Boeing will be looking to complete all contractual firm deliveries to certain customers which includes China Southern (2), Azerbaijan airlines (2), and Ethiopian (5) while British Airways will have their full complement of 8 787-8.  They still have 22 787-9 and 12 787-10 on order.  This table will be updated as warranted so you may want to bookmark it.

All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries




The production of 787s continue as the final assembly lines are humming away more or less).  We are seeing aircraft load into the final assembly positions at a rate of 9 to 11 aircraft per month between both lines. While it is too early to tell, the delivery rate for April may look to be around 10 which is what Boeing needs to average over the next nine months to meet its guidance.  There are 4 787s that appear to be ready to be delivered now that they have had their first customer test flights.  There are 5 more that need to have their customer acceptance flights but with 13 days left in the month this can be done easily.  Boeing has been flying a bit more so it seems that the y are starting to over come the traveled work and wing issues that have hung over the program for the last few months.  One surprise is the seemingly lack of any progress to get the 3 787s for Air Canada ready for delivery.  Two are on the flightline at Everett and a third is at the EMC.  I'm not sure but they may be looking for a triple delivery of 787s but as of today not one AC 787 has even performed a first flight despite being painted and ready to fly.  Boeing will need to conduct a few more B-1 flights in order to prepare the aircraft slated to deliver in May.


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Big week for the 787-9

Boeing Photo

 

The 787-9 is seen by some observers as the 787 program done right.  Indeed Boeing has applied lessons learned (and there are countless number of lessons) to the stretch of their new airplane.  The results have been excellent as it appears that Boeing has learned from past mistakes of the 787-8.

Boeing Photo

This week the 787-9 passed several milestones on the road to certification, delivery and entry into service.  We saw the rollout of the first production 787-9 for Air New Zealand, ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) from the Everett paint hangar.  The aircraft was beautiful in ANZ black and white scheme and is easily the best scheme on a 787.  This aircraft, which apparently has its passenger cabin all fitted out, went back into the EMC hangar for more change incorporation work as the FAA signs off on the tests as they are accomplished by the test flight fleet. 

Boeing Photo

Boeing is adding 2 production 787-9 to the test flight program for functionality and reliability testing (F & R) and ETOPs testing.  The last of these two aircraft, which is destined to be delivered to United Airlines in about 3 months time, was rolled out last night on April 8th and is ZB167 (LN 181).  It will do the F & R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx engines and I am guessing that it could start that testing as early the 1st or 2nd week of May. This aircraft has its passenger cabin installed.

The first aircraft to conduct F & R/ETOPs testing is ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) which is to be delivered to ANA probably sometime this year. This aircraft also has its passenger cabin fitted out. It will conduct the same testing on the Roll Royce engines. It had conducted its B-1 flight today, April 9th and will stage the flight testing from Boeing Field.  I believe that ZB197 should complete its flight test duties sometime around the end of May to early June.

Given these development this past week, it appears that Boeing is well on its way to delivering the 787-9.

Boeing delivers 18 787s in 1st quarter 2014; 787-9 stays on pace to complete certification by June.

Boeing reported 3rd quarter 787 deliveries on Thursday and, given the issues of the past quarter, were surprisingly good.  Boeing has delivered 18 787s in the first quarter of 2014 and 132 through March 31st.  To date Boeing has delivered 133 787s.

I was full expecting 787 deliveries to be curtailed during this quarter due to the on going travelled work as well as the wing inspections.  In March Boeing delivered 10 787s of these 6 of them were in the batch that had been identified as needing wing inspections and possible repairs.  This suggests that not all the 787 in the batch which includes LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive may have the wing issues.  Future deliveries may not be hurt as much as was feared due to this issue.  Notable deliveries were made to Kenya Airways, 2 each to Japan Airlines and Qatar Airways as well as deliveries to Royal Brunei, Aeromexico, Norwegian, United Airlines, and Air India (the first 787 assembled for them).  So far so good.  However, Boeing needs to maintain a delivery rate of 10/month in order to meet their guidance of 100-110 787 deliveries in 2014.  They were hurt by low deliveries in February where the expectation was to be a significantly higher delivery rate compared to the 4 that were actually handed over.

Production seems to have moved back to a regular pace since the travelled work issues forced Boeing to extend the amount of time that each airframe was spent in final assembly.  At the start of the year air frames were spending 34 days in final assembly.  This grew to as many as 42 days but now looks to be trending down.  The last aircraft to be rolled out, ZA136 (LN 179) for ANA spent 37 days in final assembly.  Boeing expects to be over the travelled work issues by the time LN 195 is loaded into Position 1A sometime next Friday.  According to sources, the travelled work has greatly improved thus I do expect that by May Boeing will have stabilized the production system for the 787.  They are are still building at a rate of 10/month according to my data.

While it is still early in April, Boeing does need to pick up the pace of production flight tests.  They have delivered 1 787 to Qatar Airways on April 1 and have started customer flights on ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT.  This aircraft may deliver as early as next week.  However there are only 4 other aircraft that have started production flights and none of those have had customer flights as of yet.  ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) is probably the closest to having customer flights.  There has been a notable lack of 787 B-1 flights, the last came on March 25th...11 days ago.  Moreover aircraft that have been out on the flightline for sometime don't appear ready to start production flights.  ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) was observed by Matt Cawby going back into the EMC for an unknown reason.  Air Canada maintains that they expect their first 787 this spring but there hasn't been anything regarding a month.  They may be able to deliver 10 787s this month but they need to start getting these airplanes into the air.

787-9 flight testing has been steaming along with very few hitches.  It appears that Boeing is on the cusp of starting functionality and reliability and ETOPs flight testing very soon. ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was observed by Matt Cawby as having a US civil registration decal.  I think this aircraft should be conducting its first flight within the next one week and subsequently join the 787-9 test flight program. The program has accumulated well over 1000 flight test hours and about 450 test flights.  It is expected that will accumulated over 1500 flight test hours by the time Boeing is done.  ZB197 will perform the F& R/ETOPs flight tests for the 787-9 powered by Roll Royce, ZB167 (LN 181) for United Airlines will undertake the same testing for the GE powered version of the 787-9.  This aircraft should roll out around Monday, April 7th.  I would expect it to start flying around mid to late May.  It is around this time that flight testing on the Rolls Royce powered 787-9 should almost be complete.

As far as April deliveries are concerned, we've already seen one aircraft delivered to Qatar Airways.  There should be two more than should deliver relatively soon:  ZA 275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT Polish, and ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) for Qatar.  Other carriers that may see deliveries include: Air Canada, Ethiopian, Air India, Hainan, Aeromexico, Norwegian, Royal Brunei, and Jetstar (QANTAS).  A few of the still have to conduct a first flight and more still have to conduct follow on Boeing flights.


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Mea Culpa....Boeing 787 deliveries looking good for March

Ok so last post I figured that Boeing will not deliver more than 4 787s in March.  Well I'm having a crow dinner as Boeing has delivered 5 this month and looks to possibly deliver 4 to 5 more before the end of the month.

Last week Boeing did deliver three 787s to customers (one for Japan Airlines, one for Qatar, and one for United Airlines).  Now it's looking like Boeing can deliver one to Qatar this week as well as two for ILFC (for Norwegian and Aeromexico), Royal Brunei and possibly Kenya Airways.  The later is to fly to Nairobi around April 4th but it may deliver a few days before that and fly away on April 3rd. 

It does appear that Boeing flight activities are picking up, possibly to verify any wing fixes on the aircraft that needed them.  I do believe that the airplanes are still going to the EMC to finish off travel work but also to conduct the wing inspections and implement the fix if needed.

Meanwhile the ramp in Everett continues to get crowded while the Charleston ramp is starting to see an easing of congestion.  Of the 5 787s delivered this month, 3 were Charleston built 787 and 2 were built in Everett. One aircraft that was built in Everett, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) for Air India was delivered at Charleston even though it was built in Everett.

Boeing did deliver LN 152, on the 787s that was within the batch with suspected wing issues.  It appears that this aircraft was cleared of the issues after the inspection and was subsequently delivered to Japan Airlines.

In terms of production, It appears that Boeing is continuing on rolling out 10 787s per month.  LN 190 should be the last 787 to enter final assembly this month. Lastly, I do anticipate that ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) should make its first flight sometime in April and join the 787-9 test flight fleet.  This will be a production standard aircraft with little to no flight test wiring/equipment.

As far as April 787 deliveries goes...it's too soon to tell.  We would need to see more B-1 flights and there hasn't been one of those since March 10th...2 weeks ago.


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Boeing's March Madness - 787s starting to crowd Everett Ramp as inventory grows

The inventory of completed or almost completed 787s grows at the Boeing flightline in Everett.  So far this month there have been two 787 deliveries, both made from he North Charleston final assembly site though one of the delivered aircraft was an Everett built frame for Air India.

Testing continues to be very slow with only one aircraft going up for a single test flight per day on average.  Obviously Boeing is in the middle of inspection of the shear ties in the wings where cracks may have developed when fasteners were over-tightened with out gap fillers.  Given the dearth of 787 flight activity from Everett, it appears that many of the 787s in the batch that includes L/N 151 to L/N 193  Many of these aircraft have been built or are in final assembly.  The wing crack issues only exacerbated the delays in the 787 production stream bought on by increasing traveled work in the mid-body fuselage from South Carolina.  The increase in traveled work, as you may recall, was caused by the laying off of about 600 experienced contract employees from Charleston coupled with the increase in production of the 787 and the introduction of the 787-9 into the production system.

I don't expect Boeing to deliver more than 2 more 787s this month one to Qatar Airways and one to Japan Airlines.  Thus I expect the inventory of 787s to grow through at least mid April then to decrease thereafter but the only way to figure that out is to watch the flight activity out of both Everett and Charleston.

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787 testing and deliveries slow in March

On the heels of the revelation of the wing crack on certain 787s and the inspection and repair program that Boeing has implemented, the testing and deliveries of 787s to customers has slowed considerably through the first 10 days of March. This is certainly attributable to the ramp up of inspection of the block of Dreamliners that have been identified (LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive) as possibly having the cracks.  It should be noted that not all of these airplanes may have the cracks as the aircraft has to be inspected for them. 


Reminiscent of the last years grounding as well as the delays to program prior to FAA certification, the Everett ramp is filling up with 787s once again. There 13 production 787s that are out on the Everett flightline.  Boeing continues to build 787s at the same rate of 10/month.


The wing problems already exacerbate the existing issues revolving around the production of the 787 mid-body fuselage section which has been slowed due to the introduction of the higher production rate and the start of 787-9 assembly.  Boeing certainly didn't do themselves any favors when they let go of hundreds of contractors last year.


In terms of production flights, the trend, of late, is that there would be a flight made by 1 or 2 787s a day but this included a 787-8 B-1 flight made by ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT.  There hasn't been a flight made by airplanes that flew last month as these aircraft are either going through inspections or are having repairs made to them.  Reports in the media say that deliveries would be delayed a few weeks with some reports saying this would be 1 to 2 weeks.


Certainly the repairs shouldn't take that much time as well as any post repair inspections but the large number of aircraft that are potentially affected may make this a longer project than most anticipate.
Boeing has delivered 1 787, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) to Air India and they could potentially deliver 2-3 787s to Qatar Airways and possibly 1 to United Airlines.  All these aircraft are pre-L/N 151 aircraft and is not subject to the wing inspections.  If they can get their act together they could still deliver 1 to 2 aircraft that are in the lot of 43 aircraft.  Most likely Boeing can deliver a total of 5 to 6 787s this month and try to catch up to deliveries during April and May.  I think they should be back on their regular delivery schedule by June but until then, 787s will continue to stack up on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.


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Wall Street Journal: Undelivered 787 to be inspected for wing cracks

The Wall Street Journal's Jon Ostrower reported today that a change in the manufacturing process in the Mitsubishi built wings for the 787 may cause hairline cracks to develop.


This is another potential issue in a whole list of issues dating back to 2007 that have plagued the 787.  Jon identified the 787s affected as aircraft LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive.  Boeing said that some of the 43 aircraft have cracks and some do not while others have yet to be inspected.  According to the database that I have compiled, most of the aircraft have been built or are under going final assembly.  Some of the wings that are still in Japan are assigned to the later line numbers.

Line Number		Customer
LN151		Hainan Airlines
LN152		Japan Airlines
LN153		ILFC/Norwegian
LN154		China Southern Airlines
LN155		ILFC/Aeromexico
LN156		Royal Brunei Airlines
LN157		Kenya Airways
LN158		Air India
LN159		Japan Airlines
LN160		Air Canada
LN161		LOT Polish Airlines
LN162		QANTAS
LN163		ILFC/Aeromexico
LN164		Ethiopian Airlines
LN165		Norwegian
LN166		Royal Brunei Airlines
LN167		Ethiopian Airlines
LN168		Ethiopian Airlines
LN169		Air New Zealand
LN170		Air Canada
LN171		Hainan Airlines
LN172		China Southern Airlines
LN173		British Airways
LN174		Air Canada
LN175		QANTAS
LN176		Qatar Airways
LN177		British Airways
LN178		ILFC/Norwegian
LN179		ANA
LN180		Air India
LN181		United Airlines
LN182		TUI Travel (Arke)
LN183		ILFC/Norwegian
LN184		Kenya Airways
LN185		LAN
LN186		United Airlines
LN187		British Airways
LN188		Qatar Airways
LN189		QANTAS
LN190		ILFC/Thai
LN191		TUI Travel (Thomson)
LN192		Kenya Airways
LN193		BBJ

According to the Journal, Mitsubishi changed the way it manufactured the wings. However this process creates a problem which "stems from fasteners used to connect aluminum shear ties on the wing ribs to the carbon fiber composite wing panel, according to two people familiar with the situation."

"The fasteners were over-tightened without the use of manufacturing fillers, compressing a gap in the structure and in some cases caused hairline cracks of less than an inch. If left unchecked can cause unintended stress on the jet's structure and could lead to further damage. 'We understand the issue, what must be done to correct it, and are completing inspections of potentially affected airplanes. We are addressing affected airplanes as required,' said the Boeing spokesman."

Of the 43 aircraft that are affected, 7 have flown production flights and 18 have completed final assembly. There are a further 14 undergoing final assembly both at Everett and North Charleston.  Another 11 are waiting to enter final assembly.  These 11 all should enter the final assembly process over the next 5 weeks or so.


It is unclear what impact this would have on the delivery schedule but Boeing is saying that deliveries should be unaffected.  Furthermore it is unclear what changes Mitsubishi or Boeing will implement to ensure that these crack don't occur again. 

787 February Production and Delivery Report

With the first 2 months of 2014 officially in the books, the 787 program is starting to show some new signs of life but there are still some dark clouds hanging over the program but the darkest one of all is the continued travel work from Charleston's mid-body fuselage assembly. I still do not expect that the issue will be resolved until next month.

It does appear that Boeing has changed the production system a bit in light of the traveled work.  Instead of sending the aircraft out at regular intervals, regardless of completion, from final assembly to the EMC, Boeing seems to be keeping them in final assembly a bit longer than planned.  The only plausible reason is not only to finish off much if not all the traveled work but also to give more time to the Charleston team assembling the mid-body fuselage sections. I have noticed that Boeing is sending aircraft out of final assembly later compared to when these airplanes were expected out.  Just last night an Ethiopian 787 that I had expected to move out on Feb. 25th was rolled out to the EMC according to Matt Cawby. Even with the 6 day delay there is still more travelled work to be done on this aircraft. United's 1st 787-9 should load today.

Previously, it took Boeing 34 days to complete a 787 on either the main line in 40-26 or the surge line in 40-24. It appears, for now, that the number of days has increased to at least 40 days. We would have to see how long these frames stay at the EMC before being painted.

Additionally, Boeing is spacing out the time it loads a new frame into final assembly.  Previously, Boeing loaded a new air frame every one week into Position 1 on either assembly line in Everett.  Starting with LN 175, the time between loadings had grown to initially 9 and now about 11 days before a new air frame was loaded.

If this trend holds for the rest of March, then Boeing is effectively building 6 787/month out of Everett.  Along with 2 from Charleston, we then could see the total number of aircraft that starts final assembly in March dip to 8/month.  This would be a temporary dip in the rate but something that is not surprising given the trouble in Charleston. However it will allow Charleston time to get the the activities in 88-20 back on track and at rate.

Last month, Boeing delivered 4 787s, three to ANA. There has been a moderate uptick, in the 787 flight activity in the last few days. This includes ferrying Charleston built 787s for painting as well as continued production testing. In fact several Qatar aircraft have finally had their customer flights and appear to be ready for delivery. Kenya Airways 1st 787 is ready for its B-1 flight and I expect Air Canada 1st 787 to be ready for delivery before the end of this month.

This what I am expecting for deliveries in March:

Air India - 1

Qatar Airways - 2

United Airlines - 1

Japan Airlines - 2

ILFC - 2 (1 each to Aeromexico and Norwegian)

Hainan - 1

Royal Brunei - 1

Air Canada - 1

Kenya Airways - 1

This is a total of 12 for March but Boeing May be able to deliver 2 more air frames, one each to Qatar and LOT Polish.

787-9 flight testing continues a pace and I still expect that Boeing will finish all certification flight testing for this variant by May followed by formal FAA certification in June and 1st delivery to Air New Zealand in July. That aircraft is still in final assembly in Everett and should be rolled out sometime this week. ANA's first 787-9, ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was rolled out of paint and I expect this aircraft to join the flight test program where it would do functionality and reliability testing. This could start as early as late March but April is more realistic time frame.

I expect the Air New Zealand airframe, ZB003 (LN 169, ZB-NZE) to be transferred over to the EMC where it will finish off travelled work as well as start the change incorporation process where changes mandated by the FAA certification will be made to bring the aircraft up to standard.  Boeing will need to have this aircraft ready in June if it hopes to deliver it in July.

Full 787 List

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787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

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787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators