1st Air Canada 787 expected to be delivered in second week of May

Air Canada is expected to take delivery of its first 787 around May 12th subject to successful completion of all flight testing activities. ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) flew 3 test flights already though the 1st one had to be cut off 5 minutes after takeoff due to some packing foam left in a duct as well as a leaking door seal.  Both issues have been rectified.  ZA610 should conduct the 1st customer flight (C-1) on April 30th as an Air Canada crew is already in Everett to prepare for the customer flight(s) and to take the aircraft back to Toronto.  Delivery is scheduled for May 12th but the aircraft is to remain at in Everett until May 18th when it will fly away to Toronto.  The aircraft will have some special events and well as conduct some flight operations in Toronto but will start flying commercially on May 21st between Toronto and Montreal and Toronto to Zurich after that.  It is due to commence its regular run between Toronto and Haneda-Tokyo on July 1st.

Meanwhile April 787 deliveries are looking to be limited to about 5 to 6 aircraft in total.  Norwegian may have taken delivery of its 2nd fully owned 787 today and Qatar, it appears are trying to get their 13th 787 delivered before the end of the month.  There were two test flights for ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) today, April 28 which indicates that they are trying to get in under the wire. Undoubtedly the the reason for the low delivery rate this month was due to the wing issues as well as the travelled work.  I do think deliveries should rebound next month as the issues are slowly being put behind them.  There were a couple more B-1 flights in the last couple of days.  Production flight tempo seems to have increased slightly but as long as it is maintained then May deliveries should be good.  Boeing needs to deliver between 12 ad 14 787s in May to stay on target for 110 Dreamliner deliveries this year.


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All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries


 

Boeing details 787 progress during 1st quarter earnings call

Yesterday Boeing released its 1s quarter earnings which topped analyst expectations.  The 787 deliveries has contributed significantly to the improved bottom line and Boeing was more than happy to share the progress on the 787 program.

Boeing noted that they hit the 10/month production rate fully during the quarter but also have completed the preliminary design review on the 787-10.  Boeing will now proceed with the detail design of the 787-10 which is expected to enter production around 2016.

The production rate has stabilized at both Charleston and Everett which will also help them stabilize the delivery rate.  Boeing did note that there will be continued variance in the delivery rate as they are there are 18 customers receiving their first 787 this year and typically those customers have different requirements and testing that need to be done as well as differences in financing the final payment.  They did reiterate that they will deliver 110 787s this year. So far through today (April 24, 2014) they have delivered 21 787s.  I believe they can deliver at least 2 more, possibly 3 this month for a total of 23 to 24 for the year and 5 to 6 for the month of April.  Obviously they will need to pick it up in the later months going forward.  The lack of deliveries to Air Canada, I believe, hurt their April delivery number which could have added at least 2 more to that monthly total.  IT is rumored that the delays are attributable to issues with the IFE though it is not confirmed.

As mentioned earlier, Boeing said that the production system has stabilized.  The two issues that have also contributed to slower deliveries was the wing issue by Mitsubishi and the increase in travelled work on the mid body fuselage.  With regards to the former, Boeing said that there are only 3 more aircraft that need to be inspected and fixed thus that issue is largely behind them.  On the later, there has been a great improvement in the reduction of the number of open jobs.  Sources have confirmed this to me to be true but that there is still some improvement needed with regards to the travelled work.  It does appear that there are fewer aircraft going to the EMC and are actually going to the ramp to finish off the minor jobs still opened and then proceeding to the paint hangar.

The 787-9 testing is also going really well and Boeing is still maintaining first delivery in the middle of the year.  The 6th 787-9 to be built just rolled out of final assembly.  This is ZB167 that will be delivered to United Airlines in July.  This aircraft will participate in the flight testing program as well and I anticipate that it should start flying around the middle of next month.  It will undertake F&R/ETOPs testing with the GE GEnx-1B engines.  Boeing also said that unit cost for the 787-9 have improved 30% between the first and 6th 787-9 which is tremendous.  It should continue to drop as more aircraft are introduced into the production system and the assembly has stabilized.  However Boeing is expecting that most of the production over the next couple of years will be 787-8 vs. 787-9.

Lastly, dispatch reliability is continuing to trend above 98% but Boeing still is not satisfied and will be looking to get that above 99% which is not expected to happen until later this summer when improved software is introduced to the 787 fleet.

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All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries


 

2014 787 delivery prediction and production update

Thus far though the 1st quarter of 2014 Boeing seems to be on track to deliver between 100 and 110 787s.  Aircraft are still entering final assembly at a rate of about 10 to 11 per month which is good but the backlog of completed 787s around Everett has been growing.  That said, last month Boeing delivered 10 787s and they will have to average that rate for the last 3 quarters of this year.

So given the available information that is out there, I put together my best estimate of who will get a 787 this year and how many.  Some of these will be 787-9 deliveries to ANA, Air New Zealand, Scoot, Virgin and possibly American Airlines.  Additionally, Boeing will be looking to complete all contractual firm deliveries to certain customers which includes China Southern (2), Azerbaijan airlines (2), and Ethiopian (5) while British Airways will have their full complement of 8 787-8.  They still have 22 787-9 and 12 787-10 on order.  This table will be updated as warranted so you may want to bookmark it.

All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries




The production of 787s continue as the final assembly lines are humming away more or less).  We are seeing aircraft load into the final assembly positions at a rate of 9 to 11 aircraft per month between both lines. While it is too early to tell, the delivery rate for April may look to be around 10 which is what Boeing needs to average over the next nine months to meet its guidance.  There are 4 787s that appear to be ready to be delivered now that they have had their first customer test flights.  There are 5 more that need to have their customer acceptance flights but with 13 days left in the month this can be done easily.  Boeing has been flying a bit more so it seems that the y are starting to over come the traveled work and wing issues that have hung over the program for the last few months.  One surprise is the seemingly lack of any progress to get the 3 787s for Air Canada ready for delivery.  Two are on the flightline at Everett and a third is at the EMC.  I'm not sure but they may be looking for a triple delivery of 787s but as of today not one AC 787 has even performed a first flight despite being painted and ready to fly.  Boeing will need to conduct a few more B-1 flights in order to prepare the aircraft slated to deliver in May.


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Big week for the 787-9

Boeing Photo

 

The 787-9 is seen by some observers as the 787 program done right.  Indeed Boeing has applied lessons learned (and there are countless number of lessons) to the stretch of their new airplane.  The results have been excellent as it appears that Boeing has learned from past mistakes of the 787-8.

Boeing Photo

This week the 787-9 passed several milestones on the road to certification, delivery and entry into service.  We saw the rollout of the first production 787-9 for Air New Zealand, ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) from the Everett paint hangar.  The aircraft was beautiful in ANZ black and white scheme and is easily the best scheme on a 787.  This aircraft, which apparently has its passenger cabin all fitted out, went back into the EMC hangar for more change incorporation work as the FAA signs off on the tests as they are accomplished by the test flight fleet. 

Boeing Photo

Boeing is adding 2 production 787-9 to the test flight program for functionality and reliability testing (F & R) and ETOPs testing.  The last of these two aircraft, which is destined to be delivered to United Airlines in about 3 months time, was rolled out last night on April 8th and is ZB167 (LN 181).  It will do the F & R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx engines and I am guessing that it could start that testing as early the 1st or 2nd week of May. This aircraft has its passenger cabin installed.

The first aircraft to conduct F & R/ETOPs testing is ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) which is to be delivered to ANA probably sometime this year. This aircraft also has its passenger cabin fitted out. It will conduct the same testing on the Roll Royce engines. It had conducted its B-1 flight today, April 9th and will stage the flight testing from Boeing Field.  I believe that ZB197 should complete its flight test duties sometime around the end of May to early June.

Given these development this past week, it appears that Boeing is well on its way to delivering the 787-9.

Boeing delivers 18 787s in 1st quarter 2014; 787-9 stays on pace to complete certification by June.

Boeing reported 3rd quarter 787 deliveries on Thursday and, given the issues of the past quarter, were surprisingly good.  Boeing has delivered 18 787s in the first quarter of 2014 and 132 through March 31st.  To date Boeing has delivered 133 787s.

I was full expecting 787 deliveries to be curtailed during this quarter due to the on going travelled work as well as the wing inspections.  In March Boeing delivered 10 787s of these 6 of them were in the batch that had been identified as needing wing inspections and possible repairs.  This suggests that not all the 787 in the batch which includes LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive may have the wing issues.  Future deliveries may not be hurt as much as was feared due to this issue.  Notable deliveries were made to Kenya Airways, 2 each to Japan Airlines and Qatar Airways as well as deliveries to Royal Brunei, Aeromexico, Norwegian, United Airlines, and Air India (the first 787 assembled for them).  So far so good.  However, Boeing needs to maintain a delivery rate of 10/month in order to meet their guidance of 100-110 787 deliveries in 2014.  They were hurt by low deliveries in February where the expectation was to be a significantly higher delivery rate compared to the 4 that were actually handed over.

Production seems to have moved back to a regular pace since the travelled work issues forced Boeing to extend the amount of time that each airframe was spent in final assembly.  At the start of the year air frames were spending 34 days in final assembly.  This grew to as many as 42 days but now looks to be trending down.  The last aircraft to be rolled out, ZA136 (LN 179) for ANA spent 37 days in final assembly.  Boeing expects to be over the travelled work issues by the time LN 195 is loaded into Position 1A sometime next Friday.  According to sources, the travelled work has greatly improved thus I do expect that by May Boeing will have stabilized the production system for the 787.  They are are still building at a rate of 10/month according to my data.

While it is still early in April, Boeing does need to pick up the pace of production flight tests.  They have delivered 1 787 to Qatar Airways on April 1 and have started customer flights on ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT.  This aircraft may deliver as early as next week.  However there are only 4 other aircraft that have started production flights and none of those have had customer flights as of yet.  ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) is probably the closest to having customer flights.  There has been a notable lack of 787 B-1 flights, the last came on March 25th...11 days ago.  Moreover aircraft that have been out on the flightline for sometime don't appear ready to start production flights.  ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) was observed by Matt Cawby going back into the EMC for an unknown reason.  Air Canada maintains that they expect their first 787 this spring but there hasn't been anything regarding a month.  They may be able to deliver 10 787s this month but they need to start getting these airplanes into the air.

787-9 flight testing has been steaming along with very few hitches.  It appears that Boeing is on the cusp of starting functionality and reliability and ETOPs flight testing very soon. ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was observed by Matt Cawby as having a US civil registration decal.  I think this aircraft should be conducting its first flight within the next one week and subsequently join the 787-9 test flight program. The program has accumulated well over 1000 flight test hours and about 450 test flights.  It is expected that will accumulated over 1500 flight test hours by the time Boeing is done.  ZB197 will perform the F& R/ETOPs flight tests for the 787-9 powered by Roll Royce, ZB167 (LN 181) for United Airlines will undertake the same testing for the GE powered version of the 787-9.  This aircraft should roll out around Monday, April 7th.  I would expect it to start flying around mid to late May.  It is around this time that flight testing on the Rolls Royce powered 787-9 should almost be complete.

As far as April deliveries are concerned, we've already seen one aircraft delivered to Qatar Airways.  There should be two more than should deliver relatively soon:  ZA 275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT Polish, and ZA472 (LN 150, A7-BCM) for Qatar.  Other carriers that may see deliveries include: Air Canada, Ethiopian, Air India, Hainan, Aeromexico, Norwegian, Royal Brunei, and Jetstar (QANTAS).  A few of the still have to conduct a first flight and more still have to conduct follow on Boeing flights.


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Mea Culpa....Boeing 787 deliveries looking good for March

Ok so last post I figured that Boeing will not deliver more than 4 787s in March.  Well I'm having a crow dinner as Boeing has delivered 5 this month and looks to possibly deliver 4 to 5 more before the end of the month.

Last week Boeing did deliver three 787s to customers (one for Japan Airlines, one for Qatar, and one for United Airlines).  Now it's looking like Boeing can deliver one to Qatar this week as well as two for ILFC (for Norwegian and Aeromexico), Royal Brunei and possibly Kenya Airways.  The later is to fly to Nairobi around April 4th but it may deliver a few days before that and fly away on April 3rd. 

It does appear that Boeing flight activities are picking up, possibly to verify any wing fixes on the aircraft that needed them.  I do believe that the airplanes are still going to the EMC to finish off travel work but also to conduct the wing inspections and implement the fix if needed.

Meanwhile the ramp in Everett continues to get crowded while the Charleston ramp is starting to see an easing of congestion.  Of the 5 787s delivered this month, 3 were Charleston built 787 and 2 were built in Everett. One aircraft that was built in Everett, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) for Air India was delivered at Charleston even though it was built in Everett.

Boeing did deliver LN 152, on the 787s that was within the batch with suspected wing issues.  It appears that this aircraft was cleared of the issues after the inspection and was subsequently delivered to Japan Airlines.

In terms of production, It appears that Boeing is continuing on rolling out 10 787s per month.  LN 190 should be the last 787 to enter final assembly this month. Lastly, I do anticipate that ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) should make its first flight sometime in April and join the 787-9 test flight fleet.  This will be a production standard aircraft with little to no flight test wiring/equipment.

As far as April 787 deliveries goes...it's too soon to tell.  We would need to see more B-1 flights and there hasn't been one of those since March 10th...2 weeks ago.


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Boeing's March Madness - 787s starting to crowd Everett Ramp as inventory grows

The inventory of completed or almost completed 787s grows at the Boeing flightline in Everett.  So far this month there have been two 787 deliveries, both made from he North Charleston final assembly site though one of the delivered aircraft was an Everett built frame for Air India.

Testing continues to be very slow with only one aircraft going up for a single test flight per day on average.  Obviously Boeing is in the middle of inspection of the shear ties in the wings where cracks may have developed when fasteners were over-tightened with out gap fillers.  Given the dearth of 787 flight activity from Everett, it appears that many of the 787s in the batch that includes L/N 151 to L/N 193  Many of these aircraft have been built or are in final assembly.  The wing crack issues only exacerbated the delays in the 787 production stream bought on by increasing traveled work in the mid-body fuselage from South Carolina.  The increase in traveled work, as you may recall, was caused by the laying off of about 600 experienced contract employees from Charleston coupled with the increase in production of the 787 and the introduction of the 787-9 into the production system.

I don't expect Boeing to deliver more than 2 more 787s this month one to Qatar Airways and one to Japan Airlines.  Thus I expect the inventory of 787s to grow through at least mid April then to decrease thereafter but the only way to figure that out is to watch the flight activity out of both Everett and Charleston.

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787 testing and deliveries slow in March

On the heels of the revelation of the wing crack on certain 787s and the inspection and repair program that Boeing has implemented, the testing and deliveries of 787s to customers has slowed considerably through the first 10 days of March. This is certainly attributable to the ramp up of inspection of the block of Dreamliners that have been identified (LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive) as possibly having the cracks.  It should be noted that not all of these airplanes may have the cracks as the aircraft has to be inspected for them. 


Reminiscent of the last years grounding as well as the delays to program prior to FAA certification, the Everett ramp is filling up with 787s once again. There 13 production 787s that are out on the Everett flightline.  Boeing continues to build 787s at the same rate of 10/month.


The wing problems already exacerbate the existing issues revolving around the production of the 787 mid-body fuselage section which has been slowed due to the introduction of the higher production rate and the start of 787-9 assembly.  Boeing certainly didn't do themselves any favors when they let go of hundreds of contractors last year.


In terms of production flights, the trend, of late, is that there would be a flight made by 1 or 2 787s a day but this included a 787-8 B-1 flight made by ZA275 (LN 161, SP-LRF) for LOT.  There hasn't been a flight made by airplanes that flew last month as these aircraft are either going through inspections or are having repairs made to them.  Reports in the media say that deliveries would be delayed a few weeks with some reports saying this would be 1 to 2 weeks.


Certainly the repairs shouldn't take that much time as well as any post repair inspections but the large number of aircraft that are potentially affected may make this a longer project than most anticipate.
Boeing has delivered 1 787, ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) to Air India and they could potentially deliver 2-3 787s to Qatar Airways and possibly 1 to United Airlines.  All these aircraft are pre-L/N 151 aircraft and is not subject to the wing inspections.  If they can get their act together they could still deliver 1 to 2 aircraft that are in the lot of 43 aircraft.  Most likely Boeing can deliver a total of 5 to 6 787s this month and try to catch up to deliveries during April and May.  I think they should be back on their regular delivery schedule by June but until then, 787s will continue to stack up on the flightlines at Everett and North Charleston.


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Wall Street Journal: Undelivered 787 to be inspected for wing cracks

The Wall Street Journal's Jon Ostrower reported today that a change in the manufacturing process in the Mitsubishi built wings for the 787 may cause hairline cracks to develop.


This is another potential issue in a whole list of issues dating back to 2007 that have plagued the 787.  Jon identified the 787s affected as aircraft LN 151 to LN 193 inclusive.  Boeing said that some of the 43 aircraft have cracks and some do not while others have yet to be inspected.  According to the database that I have compiled, most of the aircraft have been built or are under going final assembly.  Some of the wings that are still in Japan are assigned to the later line numbers.

Line Number		Customer
LN151		Hainan Airlines
LN152		Japan Airlines
LN153		ILFC/Norwegian
LN154		China Southern Airlines
LN155		ILFC/Aeromexico
LN156		Royal Brunei Airlines
LN157		Kenya Airways
LN158		Air India
LN159		Japan Airlines
LN160		Air Canada
LN161		LOT Polish Airlines
LN162		QANTAS
LN163		ILFC/Aeromexico
LN164		Ethiopian Airlines
LN165		Norwegian
LN166		Royal Brunei Airlines
LN167		Ethiopian Airlines
LN168		Ethiopian Airlines
LN169		Air New Zealand
LN170		Air Canada
LN171		Hainan Airlines
LN172		China Southern Airlines
LN173		British Airways
LN174		Air Canada
LN175		QANTAS
LN176		Qatar Airways
LN177		British Airways
LN178		ILFC/Norwegian
LN179		ANA
LN180		Air India
LN181		United Airlines
LN182		TUI Travel (Arke)
LN183		ILFC/Norwegian
LN184		Kenya Airways
LN185		LAN
LN186		United Airlines
LN187		British Airways
LN188		Qatar Airways
LN189		QANTAS
LN190		ILFC/Thai
LN191		TUI Travel (Thomson)
LN192		Kenya Airways
LN193		BBJ

According to the Journal, Mitsubishi changed the way it manufactured the wings. However this process creates a problem which "stems from fasteners used to connect aluminum shear ties on the wing ribs to the carbon fiber composite wing panel, according to two people familiar with the situation."

"The fasteners were over-tightened without the use of manufacturing fillers, compressing a gap in the structure and in some cases caused hairline cracks of less than an inch. If left unchecked can cause unintended stress on the jet's structure and could lead to further damage. 'We understand the issue, what must be done to correct it, and are completing inspections of potentially affected airplanes. We are addressing affected airplanes as required,' said the Boeing spokesman."

Of the 43 aircraft that are affected, 7 have flown production flights and 18 have completed final assembly. There are a further 14 undergoing final assembly both at Everett and North Charleston.  Another 11 are waiting to enter final assembly.  These 11 all should enter the final assembly process over the next 5 weeks or so.


It is unclear what impact this would have on the delivery schedule but Boeing is saying that deliveries should be unaffected.  Furthermore it is unclear what changes Mitsubishi or Boeing will implement to ensure that these crack don't occur again. 

787 February Production and Delivery Report

With the first 2 months of 2014 officially in the books, the 787 program is starting to show some new signs of life but there are still some dark clouds hanging over the program but the darkest one of all is the continued travel work from Charleston's mid-body fuselage assembly. I still do not expect that the issue will be resolved until next month.

It does appear that Boeing has changed the production system a bit in light of the traveled work.  Instead of sending the aircraft out at regular intervals, regardless of completion, from final assembly to the EMC, Boeing seems to be keeping them in final assembly a bit longer than planned.  The only plausible reason is not only to finish off much if not all the traveled work but also to give more time to the Charleston team assembling the mid-body fuselage sections. I have noticed that Boeing is sending aircraft out of final assembly later compared to when these airplanes were expected out.  Just last night an Ethiopian 787 that I had expected to move out on Feb. 25th was rolled out to the EMC according to Matt Cawby. Even with the 6 day delay there is still more travelled work to be done on this aircraft. United's 1st 787-9 should load today.

Previously, it took Boeing 34 days to complete a 787 on either the main line in 40-26 or the surge line in 40-24. It appears, for now, that the number of days has increased to at least 40 days. We would have to see how long these frames stay at the EMC before being painted.

Additionally, Boeing is spacing out the time it loads a new frame into final assembly.  Previously, Boeing loaded a new air frame every one week into Position 1 on either assembly line in Everett.  Starting with LN 175, the time between loadings had grown to initially 9 and now about 11 days before a new air frame was loaded.

If this trend holds for the rest of March, then Boeing is effectively building 6 787/month out of Everett.  Along with 2 from Charleston, we then could see the total number of aircraft that starts final assembly in March dip to 8/month.  This would be a temporary dip in the rate but something that is not surprising given the trouble in Charleston. However it will allow Charleston time to get the the activities in 88-20 back on track and at rate.

Last month, Boeing delivered 4 787s, three to ANA. There has been a moderate uptick, in the 787 flight activity in the last few days. This includes ferrying Charleston built 787s for painting as well as continued production testing. In fact several Qatar aircraft have finally had their customer flights and appear to be ready for delivery. Kenya Airways 1st 787 is ready for its B-1 flight and I expect Air Canada 1st 787 to be ready for delivery before the end of this month.

This what I am expecting for deliveries in March:

Air India - 1

Qatar Airways - 2

United Airlines - 1

Japan Airlines - 2

ILFC - 2 (1 each to Aeromexico and Norwegian)

Hainan - 1

Royal Brunei - 1

Air Canada - 1

Kenya Airways - 1

This is a total of 12 for March but Boeing May be able to deliver 2 more air frames, one each to Qatar and LOT Polish.

787-9 flight testing continues a pace and I still expect that Boeing will finish all certification flight testing for this variant by May followed by formal FAA certification in June and 1st delivery to Air New Zealand in July. That aircraft is still in final assembly in Everett and should be rolled out sometime this week. ANA's first 787-9, ZB197 (LN 146, JA830A) was rolled out of paint and I expect this aircraft to join the flight test program where it would do functionality and reliability testing. This could start as early as late March but April is more realistic time frame.

I expect the Air New Zealand airframe, ZB003 (LN 169, ZB-NZE) to be transferred over to the EMC where it will finish off travelled work as well as start the change incorporation process where changes mandated by the FAA certification will be made to bring the aircraft up to standard.  Boeing will need to have this aircraft ready in June if it hopes to deliver it in July.

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Space Launch System Videos

Ok so here's a change from the usual 787 postings. I came a across these really cool animations of the Space Launch System. The first video show the individual umbilicals attached to the SLS and their functions during liftoff. The second video is an animation of the roll out and launch of the SLS.  Enjoy!

787 Traveled Work: How much time is needed?

The issues in Charleston has forced Boeing to carve out more time to prepare the 787s currently coming out of final assembly.  Thus far it is unclear how much more time is needed to finish all the traveled work in this posting I'll try to take a stab at determining how much more time is needed.

Usually, Boeing send the aircraft straight from final assembly to the paint hangar with perhaps a couple of days outside.  With the current situation, Boeing is now sending airplanes directly to the EMC to finish assembly activities before they are painted. 

Using my data along with Matt Cawby's Tweets of 787 movements out of the paint hangar, I was able to get an idea of time from roll out from final assembly through painting.  Matt Cawby has been tweeting when 787s exit final assembly as well as when they come out of the paint hangar.  For the last few 787s I've created a table that explores the additional time that is needed to finish these aircraft.  I am assuming that when the aircraft is transferred from the EMC (Everett Modification Center) to the flightline or the paint hangar, that it is completed all necessary travelled work and is now resuming the normal production sequence to prepare it for first flight and eventual delivery to the customer.



According to the data, the average time between roll out of the aircraft fro final assembly to the time it is taken out of the paint hangar or is observed on the flightline is about 15 days. Painting itself would take anywhere from 4 to 7 days depending on the complexity of the scheme being applied and the customer's satisfaction with the paint job. 

Using these assumptions along with observed data, it is reasonable to assume that the aircraft spends anywhere from 10 to 12 days at the EMC to finish off the traveled work resulting from the problems at Charleston.  I do expect that this should go down as the number of contracted workers increase and reduce the number of jobs over the next few months.

The most interesting question is will Boeing need to hire these contracted employees on a permanent basis in South Carolina in order to stay at rate (not to mention to assist when they increase to 12 and eventually 14 aircraft per month)?  If so, one has to wonder what this would cost Boeing and the 787 program in terms of profitability.

Хоккей pic.twitter.com/h3OgFC9yg8
— Йополис (@YopolisNews) February 19, 2014

Czarina Putin contemplating the effect of traveled work on the 787 program.

Boeing delivers 4 787 in January but still plauged with problems in Charleston

Boeing delivered a total of 4 787s in January a decrease of 7 month over month from December's 11 deliveries.  I expected that the number was going to be lower due to the holidays in December which is a time that production usually takes a break company wide.  However, I was forecasting 8 deliveries some of which were just recently delivered aircraft in early February.  I was expecting that Qatar would have taken deliveries last month but apparently they are not ready to take possession.  Qatar has been notoriously picky in their inspections of the aircraft.  There are 4 that are complete at Charleston and outside on the flightline. 

So far in February, Boeing has delivered 3 .  Almost midway through the month of February, Boeing hasn't conducted too many B-1 flights of the aircraft that have rolled out of the final assembly buildings.  In fact Boeing has conducted only 3 first flights of production 787s.  Many of the 787s coming out of 40-24 or 40-26 went to the flightline or the EMC without paint.  This is to finish any traveled work that was left un done due to the issues in Charleston's mid-body assembly building.  While those tasks that went uncompleted in Charleston were probably finished during final assembly, that meant pushing other final assembly tasks to a time after the aircraft rolled out.  This is probably the work that went on the flightline and at the EMC.  Some of those planes have finished the traveled work and have been or are currently being painted.  So far it looks like the 787s that are rolling out needs to spend one more week to finish the traveled work at the EMC before releasing the aircraft to go to paint and subsequent pre-delivery ground and flight tests.  Boeing is continuing to move the mid-body fuselages through each of the assembly cells in 88-20 and then deliver them to Everett of Charleston's 88-30 building for final assembly regardless of the shape that they're in and the amount of work that is left to be done.  Boeing is more intent on maintaining rate of 10/month and the traveled work will be done after the airplanes have moved out of final assembly.  While this may be all well and good in the short term it could have long lasting impacts if the issues in 88-20 are not corrected quickly.  Deliveries could certainly fall behind and the FAA may inquire as to what exactly in going on in Charleston and why. 

The key things to watch for is if Boeing is still sending airplanes that had just been rolled out to paint, the flightline or the EMC.  If it is the later, then we need to see how long they spend at the EMC before going to paint and then on to the flightline.

Boeing is attributing the flow issues in Charleston's 88-20 mid-body assembly building to the introduction of the 787-9 as well as the increase in rate to 10/month. However, Boeing should have also attributed the chaos in 88-20 to the laying off of the contract workers in Charleston months earlier.  Workers that they are now hiring back to get the mid-body assembly back on track. 

Given Boeing's plans for Charleston especially with the planned rate increases in the coming years and if the rumors of the plant taking on all 787-10 assembly is true, then Boeing will need to have these contract workers around for a very long time to come.

Given the unpredictability of the issues that Boeing with the program especially with regards to the mid-body fuselage and the knock on effects that the traveled work has caused to downstream planning of testing and delivery activities, it is hard to predict how many 787s will be eventually delivered this month...and we're already near mid-month. 

This may crimp Boeing's plan to deliver 110 aircraft this year though it is still yet too early to arrive at that conclusion definitively.  Boeing is struggling to get dispatch reliability to over 99% and currently they are at over 98% which is good but not satisfactory to Boeing or the 787 operators.

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Boeing Charleston to undergo FAA audit while production heats up. January 787 deliveries look to come in low.

UPDATE: The FAA sent out this response to the audit:  "The FAA will conduct a regularly-scheduled audit of the Boeing Commercial Aircraft production system in February. Boeing’s North Charleston, SC facility will be included in the audit. Five FAA inspectors will assess that Boeing’s systems are in compliance with the regulations for the manufacture of airplanes."


UPDATE:  Boeing emailed me this response:  "This routine audit, conducted about every two years at multiple Boeing locations, is part of Boeing maintaining our Production Certificate 700.  It’s not focused solely on Boeing South Carolina."


FAA Audit at Boeing Charleston

Sources revealed that Boeing Charleston will be undergoing an extensive audit, possibly one of the largest in Boeing's history, as the FAA examines Boeing's production practices.  Among the items that the FAA will be examining will be tool accountability, lost or missing tools, calibration dates, mismatched tools/tooling kits among others.  There will be 5 inspectors who will be at Charleston starting January 27th and remaining there until February 14th.  They will be looking over the shoulders of the manufacturing techs (MT) at the Charleston plant and will be quizzing them about the processes that they are using and how those specs and engineering were authorized.  It was revealed by the Wall Street Journal that Boeing is adding 300 contract workers and may increase that number to as many as 1,000.





Sources described the production of the mid body fuselage section built in building 88-20 as "a complete disaster, a cluster fuck."  This is a very worrying development to Charleston workers as some of them feel that the FAA may shut them down because of issues the audit may uncover.  88-20 is clearly the weakest link in Boeing 787 production chain as it is this unit that produces the mid bodies for all 787s whether they are built in Everett or Charleston.  Some MTs from the final assembly line in 88-30 have been sent to 88-20 to help reduce the strain that this area is facing.  Boeing has promised its MTs an 8% bonus if they can get the 16,000 jobs that they are behind on down to 8,000 by the end of February. If the issues in 88-20 worsen it could lead to slow down of 787 production and deliveries at least for this year.  This is not the first time that the South Carolina plant had undergone an audit.  In June 2008 the FAA audited the 88-20 plant which was then under the 50/50 joint venture between Boeing and Alenia Aeronautica of Italy known as Global Aeronautica.  The audit uncovered lax manufacturing standards and forced a 24 hour shut down of the plant to go over proper procedures regarding FoD.


I have reached out the FAA and Boeing Charleston for comment.  The FAA will inquire and get back to me.  I will update this post if I hear back from either party.





Meanwhile 787s continue to be built...



The FAA audit notwithstanding, Boeing continues to build 787s at both plants at a rate of 10/month.  This month Everett will have started assembly on 9 Dreamliners and Charleston would have started final assembly on 2 aircraft.  Boeing has rolled out quite a few unpainted 787s over the last few weeks onto the flightline.  Usually they go straight to paint after being rolled out.  I'm not sure why they changed this though Boeing test flight could be doing some ground testing before the aircraft is painted.  Whether the 10/month rate can be sustained due to the production issues in Charleston, particularly the mid body assembly in 88-20 remains unclear though this is why Boeing has bought in the contract workers.



Boeing did rollout the first 787 to be produced at the 10/month rate though they said that the aircraft is L/N 155 (ZA564) which is a 787 for ILFC being leased to Aeromexico.  Back in November when Boeing announced that they had started production on the first 787 at 10/month (through Randy Tinseth's Blog) they did not identified the aircraft that had the distinction of being built at that rate.  I was able to identify the aircraft as L/N 152 (ZA188) for Japan Airlines which sources told me was loaded into the first position and started final assembly on Nov. 14, 2013.  When asked about the apparent discrepancy, a Boeing spokesperson insisted that the aircraft that was loaded on Nov. 14th was L/N 155 not L/N 152.  I stand by my belief that the aircraft that kicked of the 10/month production rate is L/N 152.



First deliveries in 2014



Boeing has already delivered 1 787 this month to ANA and is in the process of delivering United's 9th 787 on Jan. 27th. I was expecting quite a few more by now to be handed over.  ZA469 (LN 129, A7-BCH) for Qatar Airways spent a long time being painted (and repainted), first in Ft. Worth, then at Boeing's paint facility in Portland, OR.  I assumed that it was now ready to finish production flight tests and be handed over to the customer but it has been hauled back inside 88-30 in Charleston for unknown reasons.  There are several more Qatar Airways 787s waiting to fly and to be painted but are sitting on the flightline at Boeing Charleston.  It appears that Boeing will not deliver any 787s to Qatar Airways this month.  They are trying to get a couple more to ANA as well as to the first BBJ customer - the Saudi Finance Ministry.  I also believe Boeing can deliver one to ILFC which will leased as a business jet to Sky Blue Holdings.  Boeing may be able to deliver one (maybe 2) to Air India as ZA230 (LN 25, VT-ANA) has been conduction flights as of late. ZA231 (LN 26, VT-ANB) conducted flight tests last month but none this month.  I'm not sure if  ZA231 is ready to be delivered. A very real reason for the slower deliveries is the weather in Everett probably played havoc with the flight tests as Everett suffered from several days of foggy conditions.  There were no test flights for quite a few days as the fog lingered around Paine Field.






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787 Firing Order Updated

The 787 firing order has been updated.  The order for L/N 181 to L/N 200 are now listed and doesn't contain too many surprises.  This firing order should be for aircraft that will enter final assembly through April (end of April).

Here's a quick breakdown:

New operators:

Thai (leased from ILFC)
Arke (formerly Arkefly, through TUI Travel)
Royal Jordanian

Breakdown:
ANA - 1
BBJ - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 1
Kenya Airways - 2
ILFC - 2
LAN - 2
QANTAS - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
Royal Jordanian - 1
TUI Travel - 3
United - 2

Only one 787-9 will be going through production and this aircraft is slated for United Airlines (ZB167).

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Breaking: JAL 787 experience battery issue. Gases vented though revised system

Boeing is reporting that a JAL 787 experienced a smoke condition that may have come from the venting of a single lithium ion battery cell.  The aircraft was on the ground in Tokyo in maintenance.  There weren't any passengers on the aircraft at the time but Boeing did say that the revised containment/venting system did work as advertised.  JAL said that there was liquid coming from the power pack and that there was fault in the battery and charger.  While the info on this is still coming out, one thing that is known that only one of the eight cells in this one battery was effected and it seems, at the moment, that the other seven cells were unaffected by what happened with the other cell.  Again this information is preliminary.  Boeing redesigned the battery so that any thermal conditions in one cell doesn't spread to the others. It appears that this redesign may have worked.  The question, however, still remains as to if this was another battery event and if so, why this cell experienced a thermal event. I don't have any information as to the identity of the aircraft other than it was a JAL 787.

787 issue on ground at Narita appears to involve venting of single battery cell during maintenance. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014

Improvements to 787 battery system appear to have worked as designed. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014

We regret the impact to Japan Airlines & are working with them to return the airplane to service. #Boeing
— Boeing Airplanes (@BoeingAirplanes) January 14, 2014

Today's incident aboard a JAL 787 comes almost exactly one year after the Dreamliner fleet was grounded by global regulators in 2013.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) January 14, 2014

Boeing says no passengers aboard JAL 787 during apparent "venting of a single battery cell." Occurred during maintenance at Narita.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) January 14, 2014

I'll update this post as more information is available.