Just confirmed to me from Boeing that the company has indeed delivered the first 787 to Qatar Airways. This aircraft is ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) will fly to Victorville for a couple weeks to finish work on the Thales IFE system and then return to Everett where there will be a formal delivery ceremony around 17th or 18th before the aircraft is flown away to Doha. Boeing now has delivered 29 total 787 to 7 customers. The delivery was a contractual delivery meaning that paperwork was signed and the customer made the final payment on the aircraft. Thus far in 2012 Boeing has delivered 26 787s.
Friday, October 5, 2012
787 Production Update and 1st 787 Delivery from Charleston
Boeing is continuing to make steady progress in pushing out new and re-worked 787 during this past week.
In the EMC, ZA287 (LN 52, N20903) for United went inside the EMC hangar from a spot on the EMC ramp to continue the change incorporation process. With the reshuffling that went on inside th hangar, ZA286 (LN 50, N20902), also for United, went to the paint hangar and will start the pre-flight program at Everett.
Boeing has completed the first 787 to go through the surge line though I'm still trying to get a handle on the location. Currently I believe that ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC), for LAN, is in 40-26 position 4 for final assembly activities and aqueous wash but should be going to paint very soon. The other 787 in paint is ZA290 (LN 77, N20906), again another United Dreamliner but that should be coming out of paint very soon thus making way for ZA538. I don't have information on where ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) for LOT Polish Airlines and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines currently after the line move in 40-24. Boeing has loaded ZA183 (LN 84, J8829J) for Japan Airlines into position 1 on 40-24 surge line to start final assembly.
At Charleston, ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) finally saw daylight and was rolled out of the final assembly building last Sunday (Sept. 30) to start pre-flight in advance of its eventual delivery to Air India. Brendan Kearney of the Post and Courier also reported that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) also for Air India and the next Charleston built 787 to be delivered should be returning from Ft. Worth where it was being painted by this weekend. With the line move, Boeing has 4 787 in assembly at the Charleston plant with another 3 on the flightline going through pre-flight or pre-delivery. It is anticipated that Air India should take delivery of another Charleston built 787 late this month but that is all dependent on the internal situation at Air India and the issues it confronts in dealing with the Government of India.
Speaking of Air India, again, Boeing did make delivery to Air India of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the first 787 built at Charleston. While the milestone was notable so was the fact that this was a very low key delivery ceremony possibly arising out of the tortured path and bad feelings in arriving at this moment. No big speeches by politicians or dignitaries at this delivery ceremony. We'll see how future delivereis to Air India goes but rumor has it that Air India needed bridge financing for this airplane so I have to wonder how smooth future deliveries to this airline will be. Here's Boeing's Press Release on today's delivery:
In the EMC, ZA287 (LN 52, N20903) for United went inside the EMC hangar from a spot on the EMC ramp to continue the change incorporation process. With the reshuffling that went on inside th hangar, ZA286 (LN 50, N20902), also for United, went to the paint hangar and will start the pre-flight program at Everett.
Boeing has completed the first 787 to go through the surge line though I'm still trying to get a handle on the location. Currently I believe that ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC), for LAN, is in 40-26 position 4 for final assembly activities and aqueous wash but should be going to paint very soon. The other 787 in paint is ZA290 (LN 77, N20906), again another United Dreamliner but that should be coming out of paint very soon thus making way for ZA538. I don't have information on where ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) for LOT Polish Airlines and ZA432 (LN 79, B-2730) for Hainan Airlines currently after the line move in 40-24. Boeing has loaded ZA183 (LN 84, J8829J) for Japan Airlines into position 1 on 40-24 surge line to start final assembly.
At Charleston, ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) finally saw daylight and was rolled out of the final assembly building last Sunday (Sept. 30) to start pre-flight in advance of its eventual delivery to Air India. Brendan Kearney of the Post and Courier also reported that ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) also for Air India and the next Charleston built 787 to be delivered should be returning from Ft. Worth where it was being painted by this weekend. With the line move, Boeing has 4 787 in assembly at the Charleston plant with another 3 on the flightline going through pre-flight or pre-delivery. It is anticipated that Air India should take delivery of another Charleston built 787 late this month but that is all dependent on the internal situation at Air India and the issues it confronts in dealing with the Government of India.
Speaking of Air India, again, Boeing did make delivery to Air India of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the first 787 built at Charleston. While the milestone was notable so was the fact that this was a very low key delivery ceremony possibly arising out of the tortured path and bad feelings in arriving at this moment. No big speeches by politicians or dignitaries at this delivery ceremony. We'll see how future delivereis to Air India goes but rumor has it that Air India needed bridge financing for this airplane so I have to wonder how smooth future deliveries to this airline will be. Here's Boeing's Press Release on today's delivery:
Boeing Delivers First South Carolina-built 787 Dreamliner
Historic delivery to Air India begins a new chapter of Boeing airplane production in region
NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C., Oct. 5, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today marked a historic milestone with delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner built at its North Charleston, S.C., facility to Air India.
The delivery continues the momentum of the 787 Dreamliner's entry into revenue service by customers globally and marks the beginning of a new era of commercial airplane production in South Carolina.
"Within just three years of breaking ground, we have flown and delivered our first airplane built at Boeing South Carolina," said Jack Jones, vice president and general manager, Boeing South Carolina. "This is a tribute to the remarkable Boeing South Carolina team and the support we have received from our airline customers, our supplier partners and the Boeing enterprise, as well as the relationship we have with the State of South Carolina."
Work on the Boeing South Carolina Final Assembly and Delivery Center began in November 2009. Production of the first South Carolina-built 787 began in mid-2011 and the completed airplane rolled out of the factory in April.
Boeing South Carolina fabricates, integrates and assembles the midbody and aftbody fuselage sections for all 787 Dreamliners. Completed sections are joined in South Carolina Final Assembly, or transported via the Dreamlifter to 787 Final Assembly in Everett, Wash.
"We're delighted to be the first airline in the world to take delivery of a Dreamliner from this beautiful factory and look forward to taking many more," said Air India Board Member K.M. Unni. "The 787 is an airplane with unmatched efficiency and technology, which will help in our airline's turnaround plan."
Dinesh Keskar, senior vice president of Asia Pacific and India Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, praised Boeing's long, successful partnership with Air India, including delivery in September of its first two of 27 Dreamliners. "With two 787s successfully introduced to Air India's fleet, passengers are enjoying breakthrough features such as larger windows, lower cabin altitude and unprecedented flying experience," said Keskar.
Today's delivery marks the 28th 787 Dreamliner delivered to date. Boeing South Carolina will increase final assembly production to three 787s per month by the end of 2013.
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is the first commercial jetliner made primarily of advanced composite materials. It offers exceptional passenger comfort features, including cleaner air, a lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, bigger windows that dim electronically and more overhead storage space. Airlines appreciate its fuel efficiency, which is 20 percent better than other airplanes in its class and results in 20 percent lower carbon emissions.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Air India looks to receive first Charleston built 787 tomorrow and other delivery information
Brendan Kearney of the Charleston's Post and Courier, reports that Boeing will deliver the first 787 (first commercial jet airplane) built outside of the Puget Sound region tomorrow to Air India. The delivery was held up (again) due to Government of India bureaucracy. According Kearney, Boeing spokesperson told him that the airplane will be delivered tomorrow morning at about 8:30AM EDT in a "low key" ceremony that will end 90 minutes later. There will be a few minor officials at the "ceremony." The aircraft is due to fly away to India on Oct. 6th. The aircraft ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI).
In other delivery news, a posting on Airliners.net revealed a tentative plan for 787 deliveries in October. Here they are listed BUT PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THESE ARE TENTATIVE AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SHIFT. PLEASE DO NOT CRITICIZE IF THE PLAN DOESN'T MATCH REALITY. NO ONE, INCLUDING BOEING HAS MUCH CONTROL OVER FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL DELIVERY DATE.
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ)
ANA
ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
Ethiopian Airlines
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP)
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
Hainan Airlines
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
LAN
ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
Qatar Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
United Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906)
Possible Delivery in October:
China Southern Airlines
ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727)
Through October 3, 2012 Boeing has delivered 27 787, 24 in 2012 alone and 1 in October.
In other delivery news, a posting on Airliners.net revealed a tentative plan for 787 deliveries in October. Here they are listed BUT PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THESE ARE TENTATIVE AND MORE THAN LIKELY WILL SHIFT. PLEASE DO NOT CRITICIZE IF THE PLAN DOESN'T MATCH REALITY. NO ONE, INCLUDING BOEING HAS MUCH CONTROL OVER FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL DELIVERY DATE.
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ)
ANA
ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
Ethiopian Airlines
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP)
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
Hainan Airlines
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
LAN
ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
Qatar Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
United Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906)
Possible Delivery in October:
China Southern Airlines
ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727)
Through October 3, 2012 Boeing has delivered 27 787, 24 in 2012 alone and 1 in October.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Aspire Aviation: 787-8 still overweight, 787-9 is not
In a wide ranging article, Aspire Aviation revealed today several newsworthy aspects of the 787s program and the future of the variants of the base 787-8 aircraft.
First off the article addresses the 787-8 status. While the program is now well into production and delivery of the base 787-8 model, Boeing is planning to hit the 5/month milestone on November. It is hoped that the ramp up to 7/month will occur in March/April 2013. Assuming that Boeing is producing 5 787 for the first 5 months of 2013 and 7 for the last 7 months (there's a lag between the increased production rate and delivery of those airplanes at the increase rate thus I'm assuming that the 10/rate airplanes won't be delivered until January 2014) Boeing can deliver 84 787s not including 787s from the EMC.
The weight of the787-8 is still an issue with the current production block still at about 4 tonnes overweight according to Aspire's sources. It was hoped that by the 90th aircraft (LN 90) that the weight would be down to the original spec weight but this appears to have slipped. It is unknown when Boeing will achieve the original spec weight though the culprit seems to be a shortage of parts that are weight optimized for both the 787-9 and the 787-8.
Speaking of the 787-9 this variant looks to be doing extremely well from a weight and development point of view. The word is that the first 787-9s will achieve weight targets set by Boeing with further production blocks coming in underweight by around 2%. This is all a result of the testing done on the 787-8 and understanding what was over-engineered. At some point there will be weight savings that will be put back into the 787-8 but it does appear it will take a while. ZB001 (LN 126) will be the first 787-9 that is to be assembled and it does look like that this should take place starting around February or March. What is unclear at this point is how many 787-9s will be part of the testing and certification program. I don't think it will be 6 but perhaps 2-3 airframes. Already Boeing suppliers are producing some of the fuselage sections of the 787-9.
Aspire's report also touched upon the 787-10X which is now rumored to be targeted for an authority to offer by the Boeing Board of Directors as early as this month. The 2nd stretch variant will build upon the 787-9 using the same wing and able to fit 323 passengers in a 3 class layout. This model along with the 787-9 can effectively kill the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 while also severely hurting the sales of the A350-800, A350-900 and even the A350-1000 all of which are under severe schedule pressure as it is. There are numerous European, Asian and Middle Eastern customers that are salivating at the thought of the 787-10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing has a few surprise orders in hand by the end of the year for this model if it has the authority to offer. Aspire's speculates that with a launch late this year, Boeing will have a firm configuration by the end of 2nd quarter of 2014. roll out of the test aircraft in 2017 and EIS in 2018/2019 though I would think that with a rollout in 2017 Boeing should have the ability to achieve EIS in 2018 at the latest since it is a straight forward stretch variant. It shouldn't take 2 years to test and certify a simple stretch variant of the 787-9.
First off the article addresses the 787-8 status. While the program is now well into production and delivery of the base 787-8 model, Boeing is planning to hit the 5/month milestone on November. It is hoped that the ramp up to 7/month will occur in March/April 2013. Assuming that Boeing is producing 5 787 for the first 5 months of 2013 and 7 for the last 7 months (there's a lag between the increased production rate and delivery of those airplanes at the increase rate thus I'm assuming that the 10/rate airplanes won't be delivered until January 2014) Boeing can deliver 84 787s not including 787s from the EMC.
The weight of the787-8 is still an issue with the current production block still at about 4 tonnes overweight according to Aspire's sources. It was hoped that by the 90th aircraft (LN 90) that the weight would be down to the original spec weight but this appears to have slipped. It is unknown when Boeing will achieve the original spec weight though the culprit seems to be a shortage of parts that are weight optimized for both the 787-9 and the 787-8.
Speaking of the 787-9 this variant looks to be doing extremely well from a weight and development point of view. The word is that the first 787-9s will achieve weight targets set by Boeing with further production blocks coming in underweight by around 2%. This is all a result of the testing done on the 787-8 and understanding what was over-engineered. At some point there will be weight savings that will be put back into the 787-8 but it does appear it will take a while. ZB001 (LN 126) will be the first 787-9 that is to be assembled and it does look like that this should take place starting around February or March. What is unclear at this point is how many 787-9s will be part of the testing and certification program. I don't think it will be 6 but perhaps 2-3 airframes. Already Boeing suppliers are producing some of the fuselage sections of the 787-9.
Aspire's report also touched upon the 787-10X which is now rumored to be targeted for an authority to offer by the Boeing Board of Directors as early as this month. The 2nd stretch variant will build upon the 787-9 using the same wing and able to fit 323 passengers in a 3 class layout. This model along with the 787-9 can effectively kill the Airbus A330-200 and A330-300 while also severely hurting the sales of the A350-800, A350-900 and even the A350-1000 all of which are under severe schedule pressure as it is. There are numerous European, Asian and Middle Eastern customers that are salivating at the thought of the 787-10 and I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing has a few surprise orders in hand by the end of the year for this model if it has the authority to offer. Aspire's speculates that with a launch late this year, Boeing will have a firm configuration by the end of 2nd quarter of 2014. roll out of the test aircraft in 2017 and EIS in 2018/2019 though I would think that with a rollout in 2017 Boeing should have the ability to achieve EIS in 2018 at the latest since it is a straight forward stretch variant. It shouldn't take 2 years to test and certify a simple stretch variant of the 787-9.
Strategic Aero: Qatar 787 delivery to come very soon
According to Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research, Boeing will make a contractual delivery of the Qatar Airways' first 787 this week (today, tomorrow, or day after tomorrow). The aircraft is ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB). A delivery ceremony will occur around Oct. 17th with fly away to Doha soon after that. He has high confidence that this will occur during the next two weeks. A second source confirms that delivery will be made well before Oct. 17th (didn't have a date).
The reason of the delay are issues with the IFE supplied by Thales. U Turn Al's outburst was for the benefit of the media (Qatar privately is happy with the GEnx engines) but I wouldn't discount any other motives such as trying to get more compensation from either GE or Boeing.
I'll keep my ears to the ground to hear about any contractual delivery made this week to Qatar Airways.
The reason of the delay are issues with the IFE supplied by Thales. U Turn Al's outburst was for the benefit of the media (Qatar privately is happy with the GEnx engines) but I wouldn't discount any other motives such as trying to get more compensation from either GE or Boeing.
I'll keep my ears to the ground to hear about any contractual delivery made this week to Qatar Airways.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Qatar Airways delaying 787 delivery
Well U Turn Al (Akbar Al-Baker for the uninitiated), the CEO of Qatar Airways, is at it again. The bane of both Boeing and Airbus is now saying that Qatar Airways won't accept any 787s until the FMS (fan mid shaft) in each of his 787s are replaced. Currently 10% of the 787s he ordered is outside at Everett waiting to be delivered. The demand defies logic in the face of the investigation and recommendations made by the NTSB, FAA, GE and Boeing. Thus far the cracks of the FMS is attributable (it appears) to the coating on the FMS. GE is altering the way it applies the coating but it does not appear that the FMS has to be changed out in total unless crack have been discovered. The FA also has put out recommendations for airlines to inspect the FMS every 90 days for cracks. With action on the issues facing the GEnx engines, airlines are continuing to fly the engine on both the 787 and 747. U Turn Al is trying to leverage this issue for more compensation from GE it appears.
The whole issue of the delays is further clouded by other possible reason for the delay:
1) Refurbishment of the interior after Qatar insisted that Boeing displays its first 787 at the Farnborough Air Show.
2) Wholesale change out of the interior which necessitated the aircraft to go to California to have the interior changed out by the OEM as Boeing couldn't do it.
3) Issues with the IFE/WIFI system that Qatar had bought from Thales.
So the bottom line is when will deliveries commence? A source has told me that deliveries should commence no earlier than the end of October but don't be surprised if this is pushed even beyond that. At the end of the day this is not Boeing's fault but rather the actions of a press hungry, attention seeking, egomaniacal airline executive.
Boeing is also waiting to deliver the 1st 787 built in Charleston to Air India. Once again (unsurprisingly) the delivery is being held up by the Government of India. ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) is ready to be delivered but there is no word on when from Boeing. It was expected last week but never occurred. Rumor has it that it could be this Thursday, Oct. 4th but I've heard that one before. We'll truly know when the aircraft is wheels up out of Charleston and heading for India.
On the bright side, Boeing delivered ANA's 15th 787 which was ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) on Sunday and was flown to Japan last night. Boeing is now up to 26 deliveries over all, 23 in 2012 and 7 in September.
The whole issue of the delays is further clouded by other possible reason for the delay:
1) Refurbishment of the interior after Qatar insisted that Boeing displays its first 787 at the Farnborough Air Show.
2) Wholesale change out of the interior which necessitated the aircraft to go to California to have the interior changed out by the OEM as Boeing couldn't do it.
3) Issues with the IFE/WIFI system that Qatar had bought from Thales.
So the bottom line is when will deliveries commence? A source has told me that deliveries should commence no earlier than the end of October but don't be surprised if this is pushed even beyond that. At the end of the day this is not Boeing's fault but rather the actions of a press hungry, attention seeking, egomaniacal airline executive.
Boeing is also waiting to deliver the 1st 787 built in Charleston to Air India. Once again (unsurprisingly) the delivery is being held up by the Government of India. ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) is ready to be delivered but there is no word on when from Boeing. It was expected last week but never occurred. Rumor has it that it could be this Thursday, Oct. 4th but I've heard that one before. We'll truly know when the aircraft is wheels up out of Charleston and heading for India.
On the bright side, Boeing delivered ANA's 15th 787 which was ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) on Sunday and was flown to Japan last night. Boeing is now up to 26 deliveries over all, 23 in 2012 and 7 in September.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
787 production update
Not much has changed in the last few weeks. Boeing seems to working the change incorporation program in reverse numerical order with airplanes 10 to 19 seemingly slated to be be the last batch to go through the EMC.
Boeing did get one 787 (for Ethiopian) done with change incorporation but that aircraft, ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP), is now back at the EMC. Over the last couple of days, media reports said that there is a second 787 that had a cracked fan mid-shaft. I believe that this Ethiopian Dreamliner is that aircraft and is back at the EMC to have a replacement engine fitted. Once this airplane has cleared out I expect that ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern will take its place to begin change incorporation.
Boeing did move ZA260 (LN 39, ET-AOO) to the EMC to start the change incorporation process in the meantime. Also a litle interesting is that two airplanes on the final assembly line seemed to have switched places. ZA432 (LN 79) for Hainan Airlines and ZA271 (LN 78) for LOT Polish Airlines were in positions 3 and 4 respectively in building 40-26. Now they seemed to have reversed positions. The only reason I can think of is that Boeing may not have space and wanted to complete work on the Hainan Dreamliner before rolling both airplanes out to the flightline to start pre-flight. Currently in 40-26 there are 4 airplanes occupying all four assembly positions as well as one 787 in 40-24 occupying the first assembly position on the surge line in that building. I do expect to see a line move early next week.
Lastly, I can't confirm if any more 787s have been delivered in the last couple of days but evidence does point to Air India taking delivery either tomorrow (Sunday, Sept. 30) or Monday (Oct. 1) of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the 1st 787 built by the Boeing Charleston team. Rumor has it that Jim McNerney will be there to celebrate the first 787 (really the first Boeing commercial airplane) built outside of the Puget Sound region. It will be more of a celebration of that fact rather than a celebration of Air India receiving another 787. A second Charleston built 787 left this afternoon for Ft. Worth to be painted joining an Everett built 787 for Ethiopian already there. I expect the Ethiopian Dremaliner to fly back in the next 2-3 days and the Air India 787 to return to Charleston in the next 10-14 days.
Boeing did get one 787 (for Ethiopian) done with change incorporation but that aircraft, ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP), is now back at the EMC. Over the last couple of days, media reports said that there is a second 787 that had a cracked fan mid-shaft. I believe that this Ethiopian Dreamliner is that aircraft and is back at the EMC to have a replacement engine fitted. Once this airplane has cleared out I expect that ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern will take its place to begin change incorporation.
Boeing did move ZA260 (LN 39, ET-AOO) to the EMC to start the change incorporation process in the meantime. Also a litle interesting is that two airplanes on the final assembly line seemed to have switched places. ZA432 (LN 79) for Hainan Airlines and ZA271 (LN 78) for LOT Polish Airlines were in positions 3 and 4 respectively in building 40-26. Now they seemed to have reversed positions. The only reason I can think of is that Boeing may not have space and wanted to complete work on the Hainan Dreamliner before rolling both airplanes out to the flightline to start pre-flight. Currently in 40-26 there are 4 airplanes occupying all four assembly positions as well as one 787 in 40-24 occupying the first assembly position on the surge line in that building. I do expect to see a line move early next week.
Lastly, I can't confirm if any more 787s have been delivered in the last couple of days but evidence does point to Air India taking delivery either tomorrow (Sunday, Sept. 30) or Monday (Oct. 1) of ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) which is the 1st 787 built by the Boeing Charleston team. Rumor has it that Jim McNerney will be there to celebrate the first 787 (really the first Boeing commercial airplane) built outside of the Puget Sound region. It will be more of a celebration of that fact rather than a celebration of Air India receiving another 787. A second Charleston built 787 left this afternoon for Ft. Worth to be painted joining an Everett built 787 for Ethiopian already there. I expect the Ethiopian Dremaliner to fly back in the next 2-3 days and the Air India 787 to return to Charleston in the next 10-14 days.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Updated 787 Delivery Information for September and October
According to a posting on Airliners.net (huge thanks and props to RobK), Boeing is looking to finish off September with four more deliveries over the next three days. The usual suspects are targetted for September:
Air India - ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ANA - ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
Ethiopian - ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
Qatar Airways - ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
I think that ANA and Air India should deliver tomorrow with Ethiopian dleivering around Friday and Qatar on Saturday. This is mearly speculation on my part. As always take this information with a grain of salt. If the above does occur and they're all delivered by September 30, then Boeing would have achieved 10 787 deliveries this month.
However Boeing is looking to at least try to equal that number in October. Boeing is attempting to deliver 10 787s next month as well:
Air India - ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ)
ANA - ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
China Southern Airlines - ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) - This is a big maybe for October
Ethiopian - ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) and ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
Hainan Airlines - ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
LAN - ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
Qatar Airways - ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) and ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
United Airlines - ZA2990 (LN 77, N26906)
Again take this information with a grain of salt as circumstances do change.
Air India - ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ANA - ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
Ethiopian - ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
Qatar Airways - ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
I think that ANA and Air India should deliver tomorrow with Ethiopian dleivering around Friday and Qatar on Saturday. This is mearly speculation on my part. As always take this information with a grain of salt. If the above does occur and they're all delivered by September 30, then Boeing would have achieved 10 787 deliveries this month.
However Boeing is looking to at least try to equal that number in October. Boeing is attempting to deliver 10 787s next month as well:
Air India - ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ)
ANA - ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
China Southern Airlines - ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) - This is a big maybe for October
Ethiopian - ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) and ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
Hainan Airlines - ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
LAN - ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
Qatar Airways - ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) and ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
United Airlines - ZA2990 (LN 77, N26906)
Again take this information with a grain of salt as circumstances do change.
Boeing 787 firing order updated
I've been able to update the firing order for the 787. Not too much of a surprise but two new customers will be getting aircraft from this batch including the first lessor, ILFC. Here's the round up but please keep in mind that this firing order can change.
Charleston
The Charleston plant will be building 3 Dreamliners including one for Air India (ZA243) and 2 for China Southern (ZA384 and ZA385). These are existing customers.
Everett
With the surge line now operational we'll be seeing an increase in output from Everett. First delivery customers are ILFC (being leased to Aeromexico) (ZA560) and Thomson Airways (ZA317) and (ZA318). Current customers include China Southern (ZA383), ANA (ZA513), Japan Airlines (ZA185), and Qatar Airways (ZA465).
In the meantime two more 787s have gone into the paint Hangar including the first 787 for LOT Polish Airlines, ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) and the 4th 787 for Ethiopian ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP).
Charleston
The Charleston plant will be building 3 Dreamliners including one for Air India (ZA243) and 2 for China Southern (ZA384 and ZA385). These are existing customers.
Everett
With the surge line now operational we'll be seeing an increase in output from Everett. First delivery customers are ILFC (being leased to Aeromexico) (ZA560) and Thomson Airways (ZA317) and (ZA318). Current customers include China Southern (ZA383), ANA (ZA513), Japan Airlines (ZA185), and Qatar Airways (ZA465).
In the meantime two more 787s have gone into the paint Hangar including the first 787 for LOT Polish Airlines, ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) and the 4th 787 for Ethiopian ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP).
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Boeing up to 22 787 deliveries in 2012 more to follow
Boeing has delivered it 25 787 overall and 22nd of this year. Boeing has also surpassed the most deliveries for one month and is now up to 6 787s delivered this month with the potential for 3 to 4 more by the end of this week. ZA178, (LN 27, JA824J) was delivered yesterday afternoon and I believe it should fly away tonight. There aren't any deliveries planned for today but I do believe we can see the first Charleston built 787 delivered this week to Air India, ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) as well as one more to ANA, ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) and one more to Ethiopian ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR). It is possible for Qatar first 787, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to be delivered but there is still no word on this. If all four aforementioned aircraft are delivered then Boeing would have achieved 10 deliveries in one month and would have delivered 29 787s to 7 customers. The 2012 total would be 26 and they would need to deliver 8 airplanes per month over the next quarter to achieve 50 787 deliveries.. a doable but challenging task.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Can Boeing deliver 50 787s this year?
Boeing has delivered 21 787s this year but how many more can they expect to deliver by the end of the year? Boeing stated goal is to deliver between 30 and 42 787s this year. They'll certainly make the lower end of their estimate but can they deliver 50 787s by the end of the year? Assuming that Boeing delivers 4 more 787s by the end of September (9 deliveries in September) then they would have delivered 25 787s through the 3rd quarter of 2012.
Here's a look at what the airlines are expecting in the last quarter:
Air India - 4
ANA - 3
China Southern - 2
JAL - 2
Ethiopian - 3
Hainan - 3
LAN - 2
Polish LOT - 2
Qatar Airways - 5
United - 4
This adds up to 30 airplanes in total but does not include airplanes that I expect to be delivered in the remainder of September. So this is what I think will be the final number:
Delivered (through 9/23/2012) - 21
Remaining September Deliveries - 4
Projected 4th quarter deliveries - 30
Total - 55
Of course this is my best efforts guesstimate and it all depends on how well Boeing can work through the backlog of airplanes sitting at Charleston and Everett that have finish all assembly activities.
Here's a look at what the airlines are expecting in the last quarter:
Air India - 4
ANA - 3
China Southern - 2
JAL - 2
Ethiopian - 3
Hainan - 3
LAN - 2
Polish LOT - 2
Qatar Airways - 5
United - 4
This adds up to 30 airplanes in total but does not include airplanes that I expect to be delivered in the remainder of September. So this is what I think will be the final number:
Delivered (through 9/23/2012) - 21
Remaining September Deliveries - 4
Projected 4th quarter deliveries - 30
Total - 55
Of course this is my best efforts guesstimate and it all depends on how well Boeing can work through the backlog of airplanes sitting at Charleston and Everett that have finish all assembly activities.
Boeing delivers 14th 787 to ANA
Yesterday Boeing delivered the 14th 787 to ANA. This comes on top of ANA exercising 11 787-9 options increasing their planned 787 fleet to 66 from 55. Boeing delivered ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A). Boeing now has delivered 24 total 787s and 21 in 2012 alone. Thus far this month, Boeing has delivered 5 787s with 4 more (possibly 5) planned for delivery in the next few days.
Boeing confirms 787 delivery to United Airlines
This morning Boeing confirmed that they had indeed delivered the first 787 to United airlines. United is the first US-based airline to operate the Dreamliner. It was delivered from Everett and was taken on a flight to Moses Lake and then flew to Boeing Field. It is not known when it will be flown to Houston. United is the 6th global airline to receive the 787 and will be placed into domestic service starting in November before rolling out to international service around the December/January time frame. United will take delivery of one more 787 in October, 2 in November and one more in December. Through today, September 24, 2012, Boeing has delivered 23 787 and 20 of them have delivered this year.
Here's Boeing Statement:
Jeff Smisek, president and CEO of United, said, "As the North American launch customer, we are delighted to be getting our first 787 Dreamliner. As we continue to build the world's leading airline, we are excited for our customers and co-workers to experience this game-changing aircraft."
United has announced it will initially use the 787 on international routes to Africa, Asia and Europe. The airline will conduct temporary domestic flights before transitioning its 787 fleet to international service in late 2012.
"This 787 delivery represents the continuation in the more than 80-year partnership between our two companies," said Ray Conner, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "United now begins a new chapter with the 787 Dreamliner, the most technologically advanced commercial jetliner ever built. It reinforces United's commitment to be the world's leading airline by providing unmatched fuel efficiency and passenger comfort."
Made from composite materials, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner is the first mid-size airplane capable of flying long-range routes and will allow airlines to open new, non-stop routes preferred by the traveling public. In addition to providing airlines with unprecedented fuel economy and low operating costs, the 787 features a host of new technologies that greatly enhance the passenger experience.
This delivery marks the first of 50 Dreamliners that United has on order. The airline's 787 cabin is configured with 36 seats in United BusinessFirst, 72 seats in United Economy Plus and 111 seats in United Economy. Customers will be more comfortable with improved lighting, bigger windows, larger overhead bins, lower cabin altitude and enhanced ventilation systems, among other features.
United's first Dreamliner is expected to arrive in Houston later this week to begin a month-long training and certification program including non-commercial flights to each of United's domestic hubs.
Here's Boeing Statement:
Boeing Delivers United Airlines' First 787 Dreamliner
- United is the first North American carrier to fly the 787
- Dreamliner opens new routes for United
EVERETT, Wash., Sept. 24, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and United Airlines announced today the delivery of the airline's first 787 Dreamliner. United is the first airline in North America to take delivery of the 787.Jeff Smisek, president and CEO of United, said, "As the North American launch customer, we are delighted to be getting our first 787 Dreamliner. As we continue to build the world's leading airline, we are excited for our customers and co-workers to experience this game-changing aircraft."
United has announced it will initially use the 787 on international routes to Africa, Asia and Europe. The airline will conduct temporary domestic flights before transitioning its 787 fleet to international service in late 2012.
"This 787 delivery represents the continuation in the more than 80-year partnership between our two companies," said Ray Conner, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "United now begins a new chapter with the 787 Dreamliner, the most technologically advanced commercial jetliner ever built. It reinforces United's commitment to be the world's leading airline by providing unmatched fuel efficiency and passenger comfort."
Made from composite materials, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner is the first mid-size airplane capable of flying long-range routes and will allow airlines to open new, non-stop routes preferred by the traveling public. In addition to providing airlines with unprecedented fuel economy and low operating costs, the 787 features a host of new technologies that greatly enhance the passenger experience.
This delivery marks the first of 50 Dreamliners that United has on order. The airline's 787 cabin is configured with 36 seats in United BusinessFirst, 72 seats in United Economy Plus and 111 seats in United Economy. Customers will be more comfortable with improved lighting, bigger windows, larger overhead bins, lower cabin altitude and enhanced ventilation systems, among other features.
United's first Dreamliner is expected to arrive in Houston later this week to begin a month-long training and certification program including non-commercial flights to each of United's domestic hubs.
Friday, September 21, 2012
United's 1st 787 could be delivered very soon
UPDATE (9/23/12, 1:33PM EDT): For real this time, This popped up on Flightaware not too long ago: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL7708 this suggests that United took delivery but it's interesting to note that this is a test flight to Grant Co. where Boeing conducts a lot of test flights.
UPDATE (9/22/12, 12:55PM EDT): Now getting word that it's still in Seattle. Trying to get a confirmation on departure.
UPDATE (9/22/12, 9:55AM EDT): Several sources are saying that ZA288 (LN 53, N20904) delivered yesterday, went to Boeign Field and this morning is flyingto Houston as UA 6864. It doesn't show up on Flightaware. Delivery ceremony might be taking place in Houston.
Right now a rumor but the first 787 for United is rumored to be ready for delivery and could be delivered anytime between now and the end of this weekend. Noting solid yet but I'm watching Flightaware for movement. Earlier today United's pilots took ZA288 (LN 53, N20904) for a spin around Washington State. The aircraft is rumored to be ready for delivery and may go to Boeing Field either before or for the delivery ceremony.
UPDATE (9/22/12, 12:55PM EDT): Now getting word that it's still in Seattle. Trying to get a confirmation on departure.
UPDATE (9/22/12, 9:55AM EDT): Several sources are saying that ZA288 (LN 53, N20904) delivered yesterday, went to Boeign Field and this morning is flyingto Houston as UA 6864. It doesn't show up on Flightaware. Delivery ceremony might be taking place in Houston.
Right now a rumor but the first 787 for United is rumored to be ready for delivery and could be delivered anytime between now and the end of this weekend. Noting solid yet but I'm watching Flightaware for movement. Earlier today United's pilots took ZA288 (LN 53, N20904) for a spin around Washington State. The aircraft is rumored to be ready for delivery and may go to Boeing Field either before or for the delivery ceremony.
Qatar Airways 787 delivery delayed due to IFE, internet connectivity issues
The expected delivery of Qatar Airways' first 787 is being delayed because of issues with the IFE and specifically the Internet connectivity that the airline is equipping on its 787 fleet. They continue to test the aircraft even as far as flying it to Yuma Arizona on Sept. 20th and back. The Qatar Airways' delivery team from Doha is in Seattle right now so there must be hope that the issues would be resolved soon. No date has been set for delivery at this time. In related news, Strategic Aero has an interesting article about 777X and Qatar pushing Boeing to offer the aircraft for sale.
Boeing does continue to fly several Dreamliners that are slated for delivery soon including those for United, ANA (2), JAL and Ethiopian. These airplanes maybe delivered this week into next week and it is rumored that United pilots took out the 1st 787 for it's final customer test flight today prior to delivery. It does seem that Boeing is making a big push to get many of the 787s out the door as possible before the end of the month (and end of quarter). Here are the planes that I see possibly being delivered in the last 10 days of September:
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ANA
ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)
JAL
ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)
Ethiopian
ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
United Airlines
ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)
Qatar Airways (tentative)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
If Boeing can get these seven airplanes delivered (they're very close) then they would have delivered 10 787s this month.
Boeing does continue to fly several Dreamliners that are slated for delivery soon including those for United, ANA (2), JAL and Ethiopian. These airplanes maybe delivered this week into next week and it is rumored that United pilots took out the 1st 787 for it's final customer test flight today prior to delivery. It does seem that Boeing is making a big push to get many of the 787s out the door as possible before the end of the month (and end of quarter). Here are the planes that I see possibly being delivered in the last 10 days of September:
Air India
ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI)
ANA
ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)
JAL
ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)
Ethiopian
ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
United Airlines
ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)
Qatar Airways (tentative)
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
If Boeing can get these seven airplanes delivered (they're very close) then they would have delivered 10 787s this month.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Short post on 787 deliveries
UPDATE (9/18/2012): It appears that Boeign has delivered another 787 to Air India yesterday. Flightaware is showing a delivery flight from Charleston to Frankfurt for AI 170 leaving at 3PM EST.
Media reports has British Airways receiving it's first 787 in May 2013 while LOT Polish Airlines is expecting its first 787 on November 15, 2012.
Lastly, I'm hearing Qatar Airways should be taking delivery of their first 787 sometime around Thursday September 18 and fly away the following day for arrival on Saturday in Doha. The aircraft that will be delivered will be ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB). This information has not been confirmed.
Media reports has British Airways receiving it's first 787 in May 2013 while LOT Polish Airlines is expecting its first 787 on November 15, 2012.
Lastly, I'm hearing Qatar Airways should be taking delivery of their first 787 sometime around Thursday September 18 and fly away the following day for arrival on Saturday in Doha. The aircraft that will be delivered will be ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB). This information has not been confirmed.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Boeing continues to fly GEnx engines on 787 and 747
Boeing, after having performed the necessary ultrasound inspections on the GEnx engines on the airplanes they have in pre-flight, flew three GE engined aircraft today (out of 4 airplanes). This does give some reassurance that deliveries of these airplanes (a least to specific customers) are moving forward. Again I don't expect Air India to take any more airplanes until at least the NTSB, GE and Boeing discover the root cause of the crack in the Fan Midshaft and implement corrective actions and/or a re-design. There would be considerable amount time added as the fan midshaft of the these engines will all have to be replaced once the root cause and a solution is found. Today ZA263 and ZA264 both for Ethiopian flew test flights. Both these flights were the B-2 flights though ZA264 still has to be painted and will probably be painted in Ft. Worth.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
GEnx problems slow down 787 deliveries
Another set back for GE powered 787s and 747-8s as the NTSB is recommmending that operators of the 787 and 747-8 (F and I) conduct ultrasound inspection of the GEnx-1B and GEnx-2B Fan Midshaft as possible corrosion issue may produce cracks that would eventually lead to fractures of this vital part. In the short term the NTSB is recommending that the FAA issue an emergency airworthiness directive requiring that operators do the ultrasound before the flying the aircraft and then at regular frequent intervals thereafter to catch any possible cracks before they become a problem.
The NTSB has identified one 787 at Everett that has one engine with a cracks in the Fan Midshaft. They along with GE and Boeing are trying to discover the root cause of the cracks and with the failure of a 2nd GEnx engine and discovery of cracks in a third, the investigation has taken on more urgency. So far it looks like many of the 787s and 747-8s have been inspected and Boeing continues to conduct test flights of both airplanes with the GE engine but this issue already is affecting deliveries. Air India has already said that they will not take anymore 787s until a root cause is discovered. It is rumored that Qatar Airways may follow suit while other carriers that have ordered the GE engine have yet to make their intentions known. So far GEnx engines have been delivered to Air India, Ethiopian and JAL. JAL and Ethipian continue to fly the 787s as is Lufthansa with the 747-8I and thus far there hasn't been any word on these airlines pulling the aircraft from service.
Here's the full text of the NTSB statement:
In this letter, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) recommends that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) take urgent action to address safety issues that have been identified in the NTSB’s ongoing investigation of a fan midshaft (FMS) fracture and crack in zero-time General Electric (GE) GEnx-1B engines on Boeing 787 airplanes and a possible FMS fracture on a low-time GEnx-2B engine on a Boeing 747-8F airplane.
On July 28, 2012, a Boeing 787-8 airplane experienced a loss of thrust in the right engine—a General Electric (GE) GEnx-1B turbofan, engine serial number (ESN) 956-121—during a pre-first flight, low-speed taxi test at Charleston International Airport, Charleston, South Carolina. As the airplane was accelerating through 40 knots, the No. 2 engine’s N12 speed rolled back and the pilots retarded the throttles to abort the test. The airplane taxied back to the ramp, where the engines were shut down. A visual inspection of the engine during the NTSB’s investigation revealed the low pressure turbine (LPT) rotor had shifted aft and extensive damage to the LPT blades and vanes. Further examination of the engine revealed the forward end of the FMS was separated at the rear of the threads. The fractured end of the FMS with the retaining nut still in place was removed from the engine and sent to GE, Cincinnati, Ohio, for dimensional inspection and metallurgical examination. The engine was subsequently removed from the airplane and also sent to GE in Cincinnati for disassembly and examination. The engine had not yet been operated in flight, having only been operated during post-production tests at GE and post-installation ground runs at Boeing in Charleston.
As a result of the ongoing investigation into the FMS separation that occurred on ESN 956-121 at Charleston, GE developed an ultrasonic inspection to scan the forward end of the FMS under the threads where the fracture occurred. On August 13, 2012, a GEnx-1B engine, ESN 956-175, installed on a 787-8 airplane that had not yet flown was found to have an indication of a similar crack on the FMS. Like ESN 956-121, this engine had not been operated in flight and had only operated during post-production tests at GE and post-installation ground runs at Boeing in Seattle, Washington. The engine was removed from the airplane and shipped to GE, Durham, North Carolina, for disassembly and further ultrasonic tests that confirmed the crack. The FMS was removed from the engine and shipped to GE in Cincinnati for further inspection and examination.
Examination of the FMS from ESNs 956-121 and 956-175 revealed that they conformed with the engineering drawing’s requirements. Metallurgical examination of the FMS from ESN 956-121 revealed a progressive fracture that had initiated from multiple origins around the outer circumference of the FMS at the root of the rearmost thread. The progressive fracture covered about half of the fracture face.
Although the fracture in the ESN 956-121 FMS was progressive in nature, the examination of the fracture surface in the scanning electron microscope (SEM) did not reveal any striations that would be typical of a fatigue fracture. Rather, the SEM examination revealed a faceted, quasi-cleavage fracture morphology that is typical of environmentally assisted cracking4 of certain high strength steel alloys such as that used on the GEnx FMS. The metallurgical examination of the FMS from ESN 956-175 revealed several progressive cracks that had initiated around the outer circumference at the root of the rearmost thread. The morphology of these fracture surfaces was consistent with what had been observed on the FMS from ESN 956-121. The investigation into the cause of the environmentally assisted cracking that occurred in the ESN 956-121 and -175 FMSs is continuing.
On September 11, 2012, a Boeing 747-8F (operated by Air Bridge Cargo, a Russian certificated air cargo carrier) equipped with GE GEnx-2B turbofan engines experienced a loss of power in the No. 1 engine, ESN 959-228, during the takeoff roll at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, Shanghai, China. The pilots reported that as the airplane was accelerating through 50 knots, the No. 1 engine’s N1 indication dropped. The pilots rejected the takeoff and returned to the ramp, where an inspection of the No. 1 engine’s LPT revealed extensive damage. Further examination of the engine is pending, but photographs of the LPT show damage that is similar to that which was observed on GEnx-1B engine ESN 956-121 at Boeing in Charleston. Although other failure modes could cause an N1 rollback and broken blades, the damage noted on the photographs of ESN 959-228 is consistent with that observed on the engine that failed at Charleston. ESN 959-228 is reported to have accumulated approximately 1,200 hours and 240 cycles since new.
GEnx-1B engines are used on Boeing 787 airplanes and GEnx-2B engines are used on Boeing 747-8 airplanes. The GEnx-1B FMS is slightly longer than that in the -2B engine. However, the threaded end of the FMS; the manner in which it is clamped with the retaining nut;
and the assembly procedures, material specifications, and operating environment are similar between the two models. Therefore, the FMS in GEnx-2B engines may be susceptible to the same type of failure observed with the GEnX-1B FMS.
Because of the short time to failure and the fact that all of the engines on any single airplane, whether the 787 or the 747-8, have all operated for the same period of time, the NTSB is not only concerned about the potential for further fractures occurring, but also the possibility that multiple engines on the same airplane could experience an FMS failure. Although the FMS fracture that occurred on the 787 at Charleston and the incident that occurred on the 747-8 at Shanghai both happened on the runway and the pilots were able, respectively, to abort the test and the takeoff, the NTSB is concerned about the possibility of an FMS fracture occurring in flight at the limits of an airplane’s extended twin-engine overwater operations, or ETOPS, range and the airplane having to operate with one engine inoperative for up to 5 1/2 hours.
The NTSB notes that, after the FMS fracture at Charleston, GE was very expeditious in assisting 787 operators with inspecting their GEnx-1B engines using the newly developed ultrasonic inspection, which is capable of detecting cracks once they reach 0.050 inch in length. To date, all in-service and spare GEnx-1B engines have been inspected. In addition, all GEnx-2B engines on passenger airplanes and spares have been inspected. The NTSB is aware that about 47 on-wing GEnx-2B engines remain uninspected and is concerned that they continue to operate while potentially susceptible to FMS failure. Because of the immediate threat of multiple engine failures on a single aircraft and the availability of an appropriate inspection procedure, there is an urgent need for the FAA to act immediately. Therefore, the NTSB recommends that the FAA issue an airworthiness directive to require, before further flight, the ultrasonic inspection of the FMS in all GE GEnx-1B and -2B engines that have not yet undergone inspection.
In addition, the nature of the cracking that was noted on the FMS from ESNs 956-121 and 956-175 did not provide a predictable crack propagation rate that a typical fatigue crack would have. The NTSB believes that repetitive inspections are necessary to ensure that, once an initial inspection has been performed, new or sub-detection-level cracks do not propagate and cause additional failures. Therefore, the NTSB recommends that the FAA require operators to accomplish repetitive inspections of the FMS in all (on-wing and spare) GE GEnx-1B and -2B engines at a sufficiently short interval that would permit multiple inspections and the detection of a crack before it could reach critical length and the FMS fractures.
Therefore, the National Transportation Safety Board makes the following recommendations to the Federal Aviation Administration:
Issue an airworthiness directive to require, before further flight, the ultrasonic inspection of the fan midshaft in all General Electric GEnx-1B and -2B engines that have not yet undergone inspection. (A-12-52) Urgent
Require operators to accomplish repetitive inspectionsmidshaft (FMS) in all (on-wing and spare) General Electric GEnx-1B and -2B engines at a sufficiently short interval that would permit multiple inspections and the detection of a crack before it could reach critical length and the FMS fractures. (A-12-53) Urgent
The NTSB has identified one 787 at Everett that has one engine with a cracks in the Fan Midshaft. They along with GE and Boeing are trying to discover the root cause of the cracks and with the failure of a 2nd GEnx engine and discovery of cracks in a third, the investigation has taken on more urgency. So far it looks like many of the 787s and 747-8s have been inspected and Boeing continues to conduct test flights of both airplanes with the GE engine but this issue already is affecting deliveries. Air India has already said that they will not take anymore 787s until a root cause is discovered. It is rumored that Qatar Airways may follow suit while other carriers that have ordered the GE engine have yet to make their intentions known. So far GEnx engines have been delivered to Air India, Ethiopian and JAL. JAL and Ethipian continue to fly the 787s as is Lufthansa with the 747-8I and thus far there hasn't been any word on these airlines pulling the aircraft from service.
Here's the full text of the NTSB statement:
On July 28, 2012, a Boeing 787-8 airplane experienced a loss of thrust in the right engine—a General Electric (GE) GEnx-1B turbofan, engine serial number (ESN) 956-121—during a pre-first flight, low-speed taxi test at Charleston International Airport, Charleston, South Carolina. As the airplane was accelerating through 40 knots, the No. 2 engine’s N12 speed rolled back and the pilots retarded the throttles to abort the test. The airplane taxied back to the ramp, where the engines were shut down. A visual inspection of the engine during the NTSB’s investigation revealed the low pressure turbine (LPT) rotor had shifted aft and extensive damage to the LPT blades and vanes. Further examination of the engine revealed the forward end of the FMS was separated at the rear of the threads. The fractured end of the FMS with the retaining nut still in place was removed from the engine and sent to GE, Cincinnati, Ohio, for dimensional inspection and metallurgical examination. The engine was subsequently removed from the airplane and also sent to GE in Cincinnati for disassembly and examination. The engine had not yet been operated in flight, having only been operated during post-production tests at GE and post-installation ground runs at Boeing in Charleston.
As a result of the ongoing investigation into the FMS separation that occurred on ESN 956-121 at Charleston, GE developed an ultrasonic inspection to scan the forward end of the FMS under the threads where the fracture occurred. On August 13, 2012, a GEnx-1B engine, ESN 956-175, installed on a 787-8 airplane that had not yet flown was found to have an indication of a similar crack on the FMS. Like ESN 956-121, this engine had not been operated in flight and had only operated during post-production tests at GE and post-installation ground runs at Boeing in Seattle, Washington. The engine was removed from the airplane and shipped to GE, Durham, North Carolina, for disassembly and further ultrasonic tests that confirmed the crack. The FMS was removed from the engine and shipped to GE in Cincinnati for further inspection and examination.
Examination of the FMS from ESNs 956-121 and 956-175 revealed that they conformed with the engineering drawing’s requirements. Metallurgical examination of the FMS from ESN 956-121 revealed a progressive fracture that had initiated from multiple origins around the outer circumference of the FMS at the root of the rearmost thread. The progressive fracture covered about half of the fracture face.
Although the fracture in the ESN 956-121 FMS was progressive in nature, the examination of the fracture surface in the scanning electron microscope (SEM) did not reveal any striations that would be typical of a fatigue fracture. Rather, the SEM examination revealed a faceted, quasi-cleavage fracture morphology that is typical of environmentally assisted cracking4 of certain high strength steel alloys such as that used on the GEnx FMS. The metallurgical examination of the FMS from ESN 956-175 revealed several progressive cracks that had initiated around the outer circumference at the root of the rearmost thread. The morphology of these fracture surfaces was consistent with what had been observed on the FMS from ESN 956-121. The investigation into the cause of the environmentally assisted cracking that occurred in the ESN 956-121 and -175 FMSs is continuing.
On September 11, 2012, a Boeing 747-8F (operated by Air Bridge Cargo, a Russian certificated air cargo carrier) equipped with GE GEnx-2B turbofan engines experienced a loss of power in the No. 1 engine, ESN 959-228, during the takeoff roll at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, Shanghai, China. The pilots reported that as the airplane was accelerating through 50 knots, the No. 1 engine’s N1 indication dropped. The pilots rejected the takeoff and returned to the ramp, where an inspection of the No. 1 engine’s LPT revealed extensive damage. Further examination of the engine is pending, but photographs of the LPT show damage that is similar to that which was observed on GEnx-1B engine ESN 956-121 at Boeing in Charleston. Although other failure modes could cause an N1 rollback and broken blades, the damage noted on the photographs of ESN 959-228 is consistent with that observed on the engine that failed at Charleston. ESN 959-228 is reported to have accumulated approximately 1,200 hours and 240 cycles since new.
GEnx-1B engines are used on Boeing 787 airplanes and GEnx-2B engines are used on Boeing 747-8 airplanes. The GEnx-1B FMS is slightly longer than that in the -2B engine. However, the threaded end of the FMS; the manner in which it is clamped with the retaining nut;
and the assembly procedures, material specifications, and operating environment are similar between the two models. Therefore, the FMS in GEnx-2B engines may be susceptible to the same type of failure observed with the GEnX-1B FMS.
Because of the short time to failure and the fact that all of the engines on any single airplane, whether the 787 or the 747-8, have all operated for the same period of time, the NTSB is not only concerned about the potential for further fractures occurring, but also the possibility that multiple engines on the same airplane could experience an FMS failure. Although the FMS fracture that occurred on the 787 at Charleston and the incident that occurred on the 747-8 at Shanghai both happened on the runway and the pilots were able, respectively, to abort the test and the takeoff, the NTSB is concerned about the possibility of an FMS fracture occurring in flight at the limits of an airplane’s extended twin-engine overwater operations, or ETOPS, range and the airplane having to operate with one engine inoperative for up to 5 1/2 hours.
The NTSB notes that, after the FMS fracture at Charleston, GE was very expeditious in assisting 787 operators with inspecting their GEnx-1B engines using the newly developed ultrasonic inspection, which is capable of detecting cracks once they reach 0.050 inch in length. To date, all in-service and spare GEnx-1B engines have been inspected. In addition, all GEnx-2B engines on passenger airplanes and spares have been inspected. The NTSB is aware that about 47 on-wing GEnx-2B engines remain uninspected and is concerned that they continue to operate while potentially susceptible to FMS failure. Because of the immediate threat of multiple engine failures on a single aircraft and the availability of an appropriate inspection procedure, there is an urgent need for the FAA to act immediately. Therefore, the NTSB recommends that the FAA issue an airworthiness directive to require, before further flight, the ultrasonic inspection of the FMS in all GE GEnx-1B and -2B engines that have not yet undergone inspection.
In addition, the nature of the cracking that was noted on the FMS from ESNs 956-121 and 956-175 did not provide a predictable crack propagation rate that a typical fatigue crack would have. The NTSB believes that repetitive inspections are necessary to ensure that, once an initial inspection has been performed, new or sub-detection-level cracks do not propagate and cause additional failures. Therefore, the NTSB recommends that the FAA require operators to accomplish repetitive inspections of the FMS in all (on-wing and spare) GE GEnx-1B and -2B engines at a sufficiently short interval that would permit multiple inspections and the detection of a crack before it could reach critical length and the FMS fractures.
Therefore, the National Transportation Safety Board makes the following recommendations to the Federal Aviation Administration:
Issue an airworthiness directive to require, before further flight, the ultrasonic inspection of the fan midshaft in all General Electric GEnx-1B and -2B engines that have not yet undergone inspection. (A-12-52) Urgent
Require operators to accomplish repetitive inspectionsmidshaft (FMS) in all (on-wing and spare) General Electric GEnx-1B and -2B engines at a sufficiently short interval that would permit multiple inspections and the detection of a crack before it could reach critical length and the FMS fractures. (A-12-53) Urgent
Thursday, September 13, 2012
787 delivery estimates for this fall
DISCLAIMER: PLEASE TAKE THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WITH A HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM AS DELIVERY DATES DO CHANGE DUE TO AIRLINE/AIRCRAFT/BOEING CIRCUMSTANCES OVER TIME. THIS IS NOT A DEFINITIVE DELIVERY SCHEDULE.
Update, first flight of ZA238 was indeed yesterday.
That said, I just got information on potential Sept., Oct. and possibly Nov. deliveries. This list is incomplete and aircraft that are in final assembly or in change incorporation may be added.
September
9/18 - United Airlines - ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)
9/20 - ANA - ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)
9/20 - Qatar Airways - ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
9/23 - JAL - ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)
9/25 - ANA - ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
9/26 - Ethiopian - ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
Air India (I put this in separate category because of the uncertainty of deliveries to this airline)
9/12 - ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) already past and expected sometime next week
9/19 - ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) indications are it will be TBD
9/28 - ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) indications expect that this will also be TBD, unconfirmed that it had its first flight on 9/4.
10/26 - ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) this may slip to TBD
October
10/18 - Ethiopian - ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
10/18 - Qatar Airways - ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
10/18 - LAN - ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
10/24 - Hainan Airlines - ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
Oct./Nov.
All dates are TBD for the following:
China Southern - ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727)
ANA - ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
Ethiopian - ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP)
United Airlines - ZA290 (LN 77, N26906)
Qatar Airways - ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA)
LOT Polish Airlines - ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA)
Update, first flight of ZA238 was indeed yesterday.
That said, I just got information on potential Sept., Oct. and possibly Nov. deliveries. This list is incomplete and aircraft that are in final assembly or in change incorporation may be added.
September
9/18 - United Airlines - ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)
9/20 - ANA - ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)
9/20 - Qatar Airways - ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
9/23 - JAL - ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)
9/25 - ANA - ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
9/26 - Ethiopian - ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)
Air India (I put this in separate category because of the uncertainty of deliveries to this airline)
9/12 - ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) already past and expected sometime next week
9/19 - ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) indications are it will be TBD
9/28 - ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) indications expect that this will also be TBD, unconfirmed that it had its first flight on 9/4.
10/26 - ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) this may slip to TBD
October
10/18 - Ethiopian - ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
10/18 - Qatar Airways - ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
10/18 - LAN - ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
10/24 - Hainan Airlines - ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)
Oct./Nov.
All dates are TBD for the following:
China Southern - ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727)
ANA - ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
Ethiopian - ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP)
United Airlines - ZA290 (LN 77, N26906)
Qatar Airways - ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA)
LOT Polish Airlines - ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA)
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
787 flight test activity picks up speed
UPDATE: ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR) and ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) both made their first flights today (9/12/12)
During the past few day, flight test activity at Everett has picked up with 787s destined for ANA, JAL and United all taking to the air to continue Boeing/customer test flights. This is being done with eyeing deliveries of these airplanes later this month.
Additionally re-work activity looks to be increasing as two more 787s, one for Qatar and one for ANA have just moved into the paint hangar, signalling their readiness to start the pre-flight program. There are now 6 787s outside of the EMC hangar that are in various phases of re-work with another 5 aircraft inside the hangar. Among these 11 airplanes at the EMC include 4 airplanes for United Airlines. All assembled 787s are now out of the 40-24 surge line and are either parked outside or are at the EMC.
Speaking of production, interestingly the last two positions in 40-26 are unoccupied while there is only the one position in the 40-24 surge line occupied (position 1). The next 787 won't be loaded into position 1 in 40-26 until Sept. 17th...next Monday. I'm not sure of the reason but it might be due to a short break before Boeing starts production at the higher rate of 5/month during September. They also may want to ease the bottleneck on the flightline with many of the positions already full with 787s waiting to be delivered.
Lastly, the first 787 for Hainan Airlines finally broke cover and is now at the Everett fuel dock. No doubt it is waiting for a spot to open up which should happen in the next few days.
Looking at the 787 production and disposition chart, Boeing strategy is obvious. Get the late build 787s out the door and into customer hands while at the same time assembly and delivering post LN 65 airplanes thus increasing the delivery rate. As time goes on deliveries should hold steady as the increase in the production rate from 3.5 to 10 offsets the decrease in the number of 787 airframes that need change incorporation and pre LN 65 airplanes are delivered with increasing frequency in the next 12 to 18 months. There are about 18 787s that are still in storage around Everett but that is quite an improvement as many airplanes are going through change incorporation or are in various stages of pre-flight or Boeing/customer pre-delivery test flights.
However, the key to this strategy is clearing the bottleneck of airplanes that are complete and ready to be delivered both in Everett and at Charleston. So far two have been delivered this month but at least 5 more should be delivered this month possibly reaching as high as 8 more including 787s for Air India at Charleston. Another question mark is deliveries to Qatar Airways which seemed stalled. There has not been a test flight of any of the 2 787s for Qatar recently though a 3rd one is now in paint. There could be slippage of this into October.
During the past few day, flight test activity at Everett has picked up with 787s destined for ANA, JAL and United all taking to the air to continue Boeing/customer test flights. This is being done with eyeing deliveries of these airplanes later this month.
Additionally re-work activity looks to be increasing as two more 787s, one for Qatar and one for ANA have just moved into the paint hangar, signalling their readiness to start the pre-flight program. There are now 6 787s outside of the EMC hangar that are in various phases of re-work with another 5 aircraft inside the hangar. Among these 11 airplanes at the EMC include 4 airplanes for United Airlines. All assembled 787s are now out of the 40-24 surge line and are either parked outside or are at the EMC.
Speaking of production, interestingly the last two positions in 40-26 are unoccupied while there is only the one position in the 40-24 surge line occupied (position 1). The next 787 won't be loaded into position 1 in 40-26 until Sept. 17th...next Monday. I'm not sure of the reason but it might be due to a short break before Boeing starts production at the higher rate of 5/month during September. They also may want to ease the bottleneck on the flightline with many of the positions already full with 787s waiting to be delivered.
Lastly, the first 787 for Hainan Airlines finally broke cover and is now at the Everett fuel dock. No doubt it is waiting for a spot to open up which should happen in the next few days.
Looking at the 787 production and disposition chart, Boeing strategy is obvious. Get the late build 787s out the door and into customer hands while at the same time assembly and delivering post LN 65 airplanes thus increasing the delivery rate. As time goes on deliveries should hold steady as the increase in the production rate from 3.5 to 10 offsets the decrease in the number of 787 airframes that need change incorporation and pre LN 65 airplanes are delivered with increasing frequency in the next 12 to 18 months. There are about 18 787s that are still in storage around Everett but that is quite an improvement as many airplanes are going through change incorporation or are in various stages of pre-flight or Boeing/customer pre-delivery test flights.
However, the key to this strategy is clearing the bottleneck of airplanes that are complete and ready to be delivered both in Everett and at Charleston. So far two have been delivered this month but at least 5 more should be delivered this month possibly reaching as high as 8 more including 787s for Air India at Charleston. Another question mark is deliveries to Qatar Airways which seemed stalled. There has not been a test flight of any of the 2 787s for Qatar recently though a 3rd one is now in paint. There could be slippage of this into October.
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