15 Months In.....

Ok so it has been a while and I've been out of circulation a bit but I'm back so let's get down to business!

All photos courtesy of Boeing

747-8

Boeing's enlarged version of their iconic widebody, the 747-8I, took to the skies on March 20th at exactly the time that Boeing said it would fly. The test flight crew of Mark Feuerstein and Paul Stemer took it up for a four plus hour test flight which exceeded all expectations and allowed Boeing to proceed with test that normally would wait until well after first flight like testing stability and control conditions. The 747-8I that flew, RC001, landed at a little at 2 pm local time at Boeing Field where the two plane test flight fleet will be based. RC021, the next 747-8I to fly is already starting preparation for ground testing and has already had its first APU start at the Everett fuel dock. The 747-8I test program will take about 600 flight hours and should be done in about 8 to 9 months at the outside. Boeing is expecting to deliver the first couple at the end of the year after the aircraft is certified. Meanwhile the 747-8F test program continues apace as that program continues to tick off more certification milestones as it aims for certification and delivery in about 3 to 4 months.

787

787 program is now aiming for first delivery for late July to ANA, according to Flightblogger, which is within Boeing's delivery guidance but is much earlier than expected and may reflect the conservative estimates that Boeing had put out when they announced the latest delivery schedule.

Test flight testing pace has slowed since the January-February time frame indicating that much of the certification testing is already complete and Boeing is ready to move into the final phase of flight test: functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs flight tests. It is expected that this testing should start around May and conclude around mid July. The Trent powered 787s have completed 85% of the certification test points that it needs to achieve while the GEnx equipped 787s are about 70% complete with their certification testing.

Additionally, ZA004 is now expected to switch out it's Trent-1000 "A" package engines for the improved package "B" engines around the first week on April. All the while, Boeing will continue to churn out 787s in Everett. Already Boeing is working on airplane 36 and will start on airplane 37 sometime tomorrow. Boeing is well on it's way to implementing the change incorporation program with many of the 787s at Everett already going through the re-work process in order to be in compliance with the expected FAA type certification expected in July. Boeing is expecting to deliver the first 787 to ANA in July followed by JAL and Air India in October and China Southern probably around the November-December time frame. All in all Boeing will probably deliver about 20 787s this year and I expect that most of those delivered will be the the aircraft requiring less rework though I would think that the earlier build 787s all should be delivered by around February of 2012 at the latest.

Japan Earthquake

A big unknown that has crept into Boeing's plans is the effects of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will have on not just 787 production but indeed on the production of all Boeing jets. Boeing uses the just in time method of operations to keep inventories (and thus costs) low. However with this potential disruption caused by the earthquake, tsunami and problems at the Fukushima nuclear plant Boeing has admitted that they may have just a few weeks of parts for their airplane programs. For the 787, the major tier 1 suppliers are in Nagoya which is south of the affected zone. However other minor suppliers are situated in the areas that were hit. As it stands Boeing is still saying that as of right now, 787 production is unaffected but long term we will have to watch. Boeing is planning to increase production to 2.5 airplanes per month later this summer (June according to Flightblogger) and with the start of production at Charleston in July will go higher still meaning that the Japanese suppliers will be needed to make sure they have the infrastructure and electrical needs in order to meet the higher output milestones this summer.

Speaking of Charleston, that plant is practically done and I think they may start production on time in July. They are going to be done with the interiors production facility in December and should be in a great position to contribute to the 787 production increase to 10/month.

Boeing selling spree continues, Hainan orders 38 jets including 32 787s

Boeing won an order for 30 787-9, 2 787-8 BBJ and 6 777F in an order announcement that came at the Asian Aerospace 2011 show. These aircraft were ordered by Hong Kong Airlines and are an MoU (subject to being finalized. Hainan Airlines Co. Ltd. ownes Hong Kong Airlines. This is a big day for Boeing widebody offferings as earlier they had announced another MoU with Air China for 5 747-8I.

This is the first significant order for the 787 since United Airlines placed an order for 25 787s in 2010. A delivery date has not been announced but I suspect it will be in 2015 or so.

Air China buys 747-8I

Boeing announced that Air China has agreed, pending Chinese Govt. approval, to buy 5 747-8 Intercontinental aircraft. When finalized, Boeing will have 30 firm 747-8I order from airline customers. The yalso have 8 747-8I orders from Boeing Business Jets. Air China says that the 747-8I will be delivered over the next three years.

Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing, Air China Sign Agreement for 747-8 Intercontinentals

Air China to become first Chinese customer for Boeing's newest jumbo jet

HONG KONG, March 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Air China today signed an agreement for the purchase of five 747-8 Intercontinental jetliners. Air China is the first Chinese carrier to contract the passenger version of the new, fuel-efficient 747-8.

The agreement requires Chinese government approval, at which time it will be posted to the Boeing Orders & Deliveries website.

"Air China has been operating 747s since the 1980s," said He Li, vice president of Air China. "The new, high capacity Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental will deliver exceptional economics and a great flying experience to our customers."

Air China, the flag carrier of the People's Republic of China, will use the airplanes to expand its international routes.

"The technologically advanced 747-8 Intercontinental will deliver improved operating economics, efficiency and environmental performance in support of Air China's continued growth," said Marlin Dailey, vice president of Sales & Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Air China has become one of the fastest growing airlines in the world and today is one of the world's largest carriers. We're proud to be part of their success and look forward to continuing our long and enduring partnership."

The new 747-8 Intercontinental carries 467 passengers in a three-class configuration. The airplane features a new wing design and an upgraded flight deck. The airplane interior incorporates features from the 787 Dreamliner including a new curved, upswept architecture that will give passengers a greater sense of space and comfort, while adding more room for personal belongings. The architecture will be accentuated by lighting technology that provides smooth transitions for a more restful flight.

Using 787-technology GEnx-2B engines, the airplane will be quieter, produce lower emissions and achieve better fuel economy than any competing jetliner. It also increases cargo volume by 26 percent.

Ch...ch...ch...changes

ZA177 in San Antonio for Change Incorporation (Boeing Photos)

After flying ZA177 (LN 23 for Japan Air Lines) down to San Antonio (Lackland Air Force Base) last week, Boeing is now ready to start the process of change incorporation into the built 787s as well as incorporating the needed changes back into the supply chain.

First a little background. Throughout the testing and certification program (either ground test or flight tests) for the 787, Boeing and the FAA identified changes that needed to be made to the 787s in order for them to be certified to carry passengers. These changes can be numerous and each task can take anywhere from a few minutes to weeks to complete. The added complexity is that each task has to be undertaken in a certain order so as not to duplicate any disassembly tasks as well as not to cause any damage to the aircraft. The airplanes will not receive the customer interiors (seats, galleys, IFE, etc.) in San Antonio. That work will be done in Everett after the change incorporation process is completed.

Boeing said that a total of 6 787s will go through change incorporation in San Antonio including the last 3 787 flight test aircraft (ZA004, ZA005, and ZA006) which will be refurbished for delivery to unannounced customers. Boeing has not identified the other production 787 that will undergo change incorporation in San Antonio but has said that they send additional 787 to San Antonio for change incorporation work as they see the need. The other airplanes that are not flown to San Antonio will have work done at Everett. Currently Boeing has 35 787s assembled or are in the process of final assembly bu change incorporation will only occur on LN 4 and later. Currently that is 32 airplanes. As modifications are identified and the detailed engineering and design changes are finalized, they will be incorporated back though the final assembly process and into the supply chain (at least that's the plan). It is not known how long each aircraft will take in change incorporation. Here's Boeing's press release:

Boeing Begins Change Incorporation Work on 787 Dreamliner

787 program continues steady progress toward certification and delivery

EVERETT, Wash., March 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Boeing (NYSE: BA) began change incorporation work on the 787 Dreamliner at Boeing's Global Services & Support site in San Antonio, Texas. Airplane #23, the first 787 to undergo change incorporation, on Friday flew from Everett, Wash., to San Antonio on a ferry flight. During change incorporation, airplanes that are not part of flight test are configured to conform with the standards established as part of type certification efforts. Refurbishment of three of the six 787 flight test airplanes also will take place in San Antonio after completion of flight test activities.

"The 787 team is thrilled to have the expertise and enthusiasm of the San Antonio team focused on getting these airplanes ready for delivery to our customers," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program.

The current plan is for six Dreamliners to complete change incorporation and refurbishment in San Antonio. Three will complete change incorporation and three airplanes will be refurbished after flight test is complete. However, the plan is flexible and could accommodate additional 787 production needs as flight test is completed and airplanes are prepared for delivery. The work will be performed from March 2011 through 2013.

"We continuously look for ways to leverage the strength of the Boeing enterprise, taking advantage of the team and the skills we have across the company," said Fancher. "San Antonio specializes in modification work and has the capability and capacity to get the job done. The team was a natural choice."

Some of the work done in San Antonio will include installing electronic and mechanical equipment, completing software upgrades, testing functional systems, and removing and reworking wiring or equipment that needs to be updated to current configuration requirements. Approximately 450 employees will be hired on a temporary basis to join with 1,700 experienced workers at the site to complete the work.

"Everyone on our team is excited to join the 787 program," said Kevin Devine, vice president and general manager of the San Antonio site. "This airplane is about as advanced as you can get and there are high expectations tied to this work package. I am confident that our team will get the job done."

Currently, there are about 1,500 employees at Boeing's San Antonio site performing maintenance and modification work on the following programs: KC-135 Programmed Depot Maintenance, KC-135 Global Air Traffic Management, C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership and the C-130 Avionics Modernization program.

There are other changes coming to the 787 flight test fleet...actually just one airplane. ZA004, which was to have the package "B" Trent 1000 engines installed last month will now have those engines installed between March 18th and April 6th.


Lastly, the 787 flight test fleet went over the 3,100 flight test hour mark yesterday when ZA003 completed a 2 hour and 10 minute test flight. It is epected that ETOPS testing should begin late this month and carry on into July.

787 surpasses another milestone - 3,000 hours flown

Today, February 27,th 2011, the 787 flight test fleet surpassed another milestone by exceeding 3,000 flight test hours flown. It appears that ZA005 was the aircraft that put Boeing over the top when it flew a 6 hour and 40 minute test flight out of Boeing Field. It also appears that the GEnx/787 flight testing has exceed 600 flight test hours during the same flight.

Additionally, the Rolls Royce powered 787 test fleet surpassed 2,400 flight hours flown when ZA004 flew a 5 hour mission yesterday (Feb. 26th)

I expect that there would be a confirmation of this milestone by Boeing sometime tomorrow.

Boeing's statement on 1,000 flight milestone for the 787

Boeing Photo




From Boeing, nothing new versus what I have previously reported:

Boeing Completes 1,000th 787 Flight

EVERETT, Wash., Feb. 24, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787 Dreamliner made its 1,000th flight yesterday, marking another milestone in the flight test program. There are seven airplanes participating in flight testing. The landing of 787 flight test airplane ZA004, just after 1 p.m. MST at Yuma International Airport, counted as the official 1,000th flight.

The program is near its 3,000th hour of flying and 787s have flown a total of more than one million miles.

"The team is making great progress," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We are getting through the test conditions needed to certify this airplane with nearly 80 percent of the conditions for the first model, with Rolls-Royce engines, already complete. And, we're more than 60 percent of the way through the test conditions for the 787s with General Electric engines."

Capt. Mike Carriker, chief pilot for the 787, Boeing Test & Evaluation, said the airplane continues to behave well in testing.

"We're really eager to get this airplane through its flight testing so our customers can see for themselves this airplane's excellent performance," said Carriker.

Boeing 787 Flight Test surpasses 1,000 flights

Today the Boeing flight test fleet flew it's 1,000th flight when ZA004 took to the air from Yuma Marine Corp Air Station for a 30 minute test flight. To date, Boeing has conducted 1,004 test flights since the program started on De. 15, 2009. Boeing has picked up the flight test tempo and has been flying all the test flight airplanes though ZA102 which had joined the test flight fleet earlier this year has now been sequestered in an ATS Hangar for unknown reasons. It is there with ZA101 which is supposed to be conducting ground tests and this may indicate that Boeing is incorporating changes and/or repairs to these planes before they recommence testing activities.

Another milestone for the test flight fleet is on the horizon with 3,000 flight test hours looming. Currently Boeing has surpassed 2,969 flight test hours. I suspect that this milestone will be reached sometime this weekend as Boeing is starting the final push to complete flight testing.

Fourteen Months In...

It was around this time that Boeing had hoped to start deliveries of the 787 yet this time of the year still see the 787 still in flight test due to the fire that occurred on ZA002 as well as the uncontained engine failure of the Trent 1000 engine in Derby, UK. Yet in the past one month, Boeing has aggressively flew the 787 to the tune of over 395 flight hours. During media briefings on Monday, Boeing says that they are over 80% complete on the test flight flight program for the Trent powered 787 and 60% on the GEnx powered 787.

Of the other accomplishments or milestone, Boeing has received the updated power panels that will be installed on all the 787 though I'm not sure if the software fix is complete. Once these new power panels are installed Boeing should be cleared to start ETOPs testing.

Boeing also received the first set of package "B" Trent 1000 engines. These engines, I expect, will be installed on ZA004 for flight tests. As I had reported earlier, ZA004 will be out for about two weeks (Feb. 23 - March 11) in order to install and ground test the engines prior to resuming test flights.

Boeing is also expecting to add another production 787 (either ZA100 or ZA101) to help finish off some test flights though they are trying to get both these airplanes close to a final EIS configuration as possible and that will determine which airplane will join in functionality and reliability and ETOPs testing.

In the meanwhile 787 production still continues at 2/month with the first 787 for China Southern and the 34th 787 (ZA380) entering final assembly. Currently each airplane spends about 8 weeks going through the final assembly process though that pace is expected to increase by year end. The 35th 787 will enter final assembly on Feb. 28th (this being ZA236 for Air India).

Guy Norris: 787 test update

Aubrey Cohen: Boeing 787 Dreamliner is 80% through flight testing

Queen of the Skies...Always

Boeing Photos

Today, Boeing unveiled the newest member of the 747 family, the 747-8I. What wasn't very anticipated was the new lines of the aircraft since Boeing has been releasing photos of the assembly of the first 747-8I. The main buzz was surrounding the color scheme of the first airplane with some expecting a scheme similar to the one that is painted on the first 787 or one that is painted on the 747-8Fs that are currently in test flights.

Boeing revealed the 747 in a hybrid scheme of a red-orange colored 747 in the 787 Dreamliner paint scheme which they dubbed "Sunrise". The scheme is meant to symbolize the bridging of the gap between the original 747-100 (painted in red for its unveiling in the early 70's) which flew over 40 years ago and today's new 747.

The aircraft has since been towed to the Boeing flightline where it will undergo 6 weeks of preflight ground testing prior to its first flight expected at the end of March (latest word is around March 21st).

The second 747-8I to fly is an aircraft destined for Lufthansa in early 2012. This airplane should roll out in about a month and should be flying in late April. Both airplanes will conduct certification test flights over a 4 month period and encompassing about 600 flight test hours.

The 747-8 program has run into it share of difficulties partly due to the problems related to the 787 but also issues with regards to design which has stretched the testing and certification timeline out. Boeing is still planning to deliver the first 747-8I to the customer by the end of this year and to Lufthansa early next year. Here's Boeing's press release on the 747-8I unveiling:

Boeing Celebrates Premiere of New 747-8 Intercontinental

- Thousands gather for unveiling of only airplane to serve 400-500 seat market

- New 747 delivers unrivaled efficiency, new benchmark in environmental performance, welcoming interior for passengers

EVERETT, Wash., Feb. 13, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today unveiled its new 747-8 Intercontinental, the new high-capacity passenger airplane that offers airlines the lowest operating costs and best economics of any large passenger airplane while providing enhanced environmental performance.

Approximately 10,000 guests, including customers, Boeing employees, government officials, partners and suppliers, gathered in the factory in Everett, Wash., to witness the premiere of the Intercontinental at an event themed "Incredible, Again." Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Albaugh said the newest 747 incorporates technological advancements that make it an extremely productive airplane for customers.

"The new 747-8 Intercontinental features the latest in innovative technologies — applying many of the breakthroughs also found on the 787 Dreamliner," said Albaugh. "We think our customers will value the low operating costs and passengers will enjoy the comfort of the striking new interior."

"The 747-8 Intercontinental will be a great complement to our fleet, fitting nicely into the 400-seat category, improving our fleet's eco-efficiency even further," said Nico Buchholz, executive vice president, Lufthansa Group Fleet Management. "As launch customer, we are looking forward to welcoming this new aircraft to our fleet next year as it adds to our ongoing fleet modernization and environmental efforts."

Korean Air and VIP customers have joined launch customer Lufthansa in ordering a total of 33 747-8 Intercontinentals. First delivery of the 747-8 Intercontinental is scheduled for the fourth quarter.

"As the only airplane in the 400 to 500-seat market, the 747-8 Intercontinental will give operators an airplane perfectly suited for long, heavily traveled routes around the world," said Pat Shanahan, vice president and general manager, Airplane Programs, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The new 747-8 Intercontinental will set a new standard in economic and environmental performance, while providing a world-class passenger experience."

The 747-8 Intercontinental will have the lowest seat-mile cost of any large commercial jetliner, with 12 percent lower costs than its predecessor, the 747-400. The airplane provides 16 percent better fuel economy, 16 percent less carbon emissions per passenger and generates a 30 percent smaller noise footprint than the 747-400. The 747-8 Intercontinental applies interior features from the 787 Dreamliner that includes a new curved, upswept architecture giving passengers a greater feeling of space and comfort, while adding more room for personal belongings.

The airplane unveiled today is painted in a new Sunrise livery of red-orange that only will appear on the first 747-8 Intercontinental and is a significant departure from Boeing's standard blue. The new color palette honors many key Boeing customers whose cultures recognize these colors as symbols of prosperity and good luck.

Here's some links to others who had covered today's festivities in Everett:

Saj Ahmad: Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental Makes Debut

Guy Norris: Finally Revealed: The Stretched 747-8I

Guy Norris: 747-8I Things to Come

Dominic Gate: New Boeing Jumbo Jet Celebrated in Everett

Aubrey Cohen: Boeing's first 747-8 Intercontinental Makes Colorful Debut

Seattle PI: Photos from 747-8I Reveal

Aubrey Cohen: Boeing touts new 747-8 Intercontinental

ZA004 to get Trent package"B" engines later this month

Sources have confirmed to me that Boeing will be re-equipping ZA004 with the improve package "B" version of the Trent 1000 engine later this month. That engine has been undergoing testing on Rolls Royce's 747 engine test bed as well as at RR's engine test facilities for sometime now but installation on ZA004 was put off due to the fire on ZA002. Guy Norris summed up the package improvements nicely in an article from last September:

Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 built to the improved ‘Package B’ standard is designed to bring performance to within 1% of Boeing’s original specification. Package B includes enhanced aerodynamics in the six-stage low pressure (LP) turbine, improved cooling flow for the IP turbine and changes to the secondary air system to take off sealing and cooling air at a lower pressure stage. The root-to-tip twist of the fan blade is also slightly altered to match changes in the pressure ratio caused by a concurrent reduction in nozzle area. Rolls has run at least three Package B performance engines and, when last reporting on progress, says all were in line with expectations. In March Rolls was flight testing the first Package B engine on its company 747 flying testbed ahead of delivering finalized engines to Boeing for installation on ZA004.

ZA004 is scheduled to receive the engines over a two week period (Feb. 23rd to March 11th). Previously, the installation and ground testing was to take about a month before resuming flights with the improved engines. If that schedule holds true this time around, then we could see ZA004 returning to the skies with the new engines around the last week of March. It will undertake much of the same testing that the 787 program conducted using the Trent 1000 package "A" as well as conducting ETOPs testing with the improved package "B" engines.

Flying the Wings Off

The head of BCA, Jim Albaugh, said in May 2010 that Boeing would be "flying the wings off those airplanes" meaning the 787. Since then Boeing has had several set backs in trying to accomplish the rapid accumulation of flight test hours. The 787 flight test team was seemingly on its way to piling on the flight test (and ground test) hours during last fall but was abruptly halted with the fire on ZA002 on Nov. 9th.

Since the resumption of flight test Boeing has been aggressively ramping up flight tests especially after the FAA gave its ok to resume certification test flights. For example. in the one week between Jan. 24th and Jan. 31st, the Boeing test flight fleet flew almost 100 flight test hours. On Feb. 1st Boeing had 5 of the test flight airplanes flying, they accumulated about 16 hours in one day of flying. Obviously not all the flight tests will be dedicated to certification activities but Boeing clearly will be flying these airplanes more than 3,100 hours that they originally said that they would need to in order to properly test and certify the 787. Part of the reason for more test flight hours is that Boeing needs to test fly any changes and fixes that they are required to incorporate into the design.

As long as there aren't any mo major hiccups like the fire in November, Boeing should finish most of the non ETOPs flight testing by March. A source has confirmed that the schedule, as it stands today, should see the bulk of ETOPs testing in the period between March and May. The last certification test flights should occur around July though the bulk of the remaining certification flying will be done well before July.

The FAA and EASA will need a couple of months after the completion of flights to churn through the remaining data and issue the certification for the 787 to allow delivery by the end of September.

In the meantime, Boeing will continue to fly the wings off the 787 as it tries to meet the new schedule for certification and delivery.

Is Boeing almost all done with 787 flight testing?

Sometimes you get clues from the most interesting sources. In this case the clue is from Dinesh Keskar, president of Boeing India and a statement he made to the Hindustan Times. I'm not sure if it's true but if it is, then it is notable with regards to how much testing is left. Here's what was in the Hindustan Times:

The Dreamliner flight test programme, he said, was in full swing with the aircraft having completed 2500 hours and another 300 hours were needed to be done after which they will get the Federal Aviation Administration certificate.

“Once that is obtained, which we are expecting this summer, then we can begin deliveries all over the world,” he said.

Boeing has since accumulated just under 2700 flight hours on the 787 (as of yesterday) which implies another 100 flight test hours. I have to take it with a grain of salt though. It is unclear if Dinesh Keskar was including any ETOPs testing in that 300 hours (which Boeing has not yet started). I tend to think that it is not included and that ETOPs testing will add a couple hundred more hours to the total. Still I'm waiting to hear back from Boeing as I did put this question to them.

Read the Hindustan article:

Hindustan Times: Boeing will deliver 787 Dreamliner to AI this year

Flightblogger: First 787 delivery in September

Flightblogger, citing industry sources, says that Boeing will deliver the first 787 to ANA in September. During today's conference call Boeing reiterated it's intention to ramp up 787 output to 10/month by the end of 2013 for the current 2/month. Additionally, Boeing is saying that it will deliver roughly 20 787s this year though at this point it is unknown which 787s will be delivered though Flightblogger says ZA100, ZA101, and ZA102 (currently flying) are candidates to for delivery this year along with ZA177. Certainly I feel that most of the 787s delivered this year will go to ANA but a few will probably also be delivered to JAL and Air India is Boeing can manage 20 deliveries. As it stands about 20 to 25 787s need extensive re-work and Boeing has to devote significant resources to get these airplanes flight ready.

Also a very important question has been answered...Boeing will deliver the 787 with ETOPS certification though that certification work will have to wait after a permanent fix to the electrical issues that ZA002 encountered in November has to be implemented before that testing can proceed.

In other news Flightblogger also reported that ZA005 will be heading down to La Paz, Bolivia for high altitude take off and landing test after conducting similar tests at sea level in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico.

You can read Flightbloggers two informative posts here:

Flightblogger: Sources: ANA to see its first 787 in September

Flightblogger: 787 heads south for the winter in search of high and low ground

787/747-8 Bullet Points from Boeing's Earnings Call

Boeing says they've completed 75% of required testing needed for delivery

787 high risk conditions mostly retired

787 production continues to improve

Currently 2/month production rate for 787

Still maintaining 787 10/month build rate by end of 2013

787-9 still targeted for delivery at end of 2013

747-8I first flight expected by end of March, 2011, first delivery still expected by end of year

Still expecting to deliver 747-8F by middle of 2011

Expect to be completed with 787 settlement negotiations with 787 suppliers by the end of the year

787 not in a forward loss position but profitability is under pressure

787 customer claim negotiations are still ongoing but are tracking to expectations

Expect 50/50 split between 787 and 747-8 deliveries this year (between 25 to 40 in total expected to be delivered)

Boeing expects 0 margins on early 787 and 747-8 deliveries (dilutive to 2011 earnings)

United says it expects its first 787 in 1Q12

787 ETOPS is fully in the schedule and will be delivered in 2011 with ETOPS certification

787 parts are coming in more completed then before

Boeing had a conservative view of 787 production ramp up but that margin is now eaten up with the slide in deliveries

Boeing has a clear view with 787 FAA certification.

ETOPS 0n 787 is different vs. 777 - fault and condition based for 787 ETOPS instead of cycle based for 777

Boeing and FAA are in agreement with testing requirements for ETOPS

Temporary fix of electrical issues is flying on 787s right now but permanent fix must be installed before ETOPS testing starts; most other testing is largely done

Boeing is still sorting out which 787 line number will be delivered first though they are close to finally figuring it out

20 -25 787s need re-work. The later units are have levels of completion (currently at line 31).

There is some 787 schedule margin which is measured in weeks

Boeing Charleston assembly building is ahead of schedule

Boeing's 2010 Earnings Out

Boeing released their 2010 full year earnings this morning and they were negatively impacted by the problem in the 787 program. In terms of the 787 there wasn't much in the press release except for this one tid bit:

Commercial Airplanes' 2011 deliveries guidance is expected to be between 485 and 500 airplanes and is sold out. It includes the first 787 and 747-8 deliveries (combined 25 to 40 units), which are expected to begin in the third quarter of 2011 and mid-2011, respectively.

Boeing has about 16 747-8 built (including the first 747-8I) and assuming they build one per month will imply that Boeing may have about 28 747-8 built by the end of 2011. Currently Boeing has about 22 production 787s built. Assuming 2/month build rate for 6 months (12) and then 3/month build rate for the last 6 months (18) will give Boeing 52 787s built through the end of the year.

I think that the 747-8s production is in a better state compared to the 787 thus of the 787s and 747s to be delivered it would be more of the later. There is simply too much re-work to be done on the 787s that are already built and waiting on the Everett flight line. Boeing may opt to deliver the later build aircraft which are expected to be more fully completed and requiring little re-work to be done. If Boeing is to deliver 40 787s and 747s I think it would be about 25 747s and 15 787s. It will all depend on how fast they can re-work the 787s (and some of the 747s) as well as how smooth the production ramp up goes on the 787 line.

Boeing's 2010 earnings press release

Scott Hamilton just put out a piece on 747 and 787 deliveries, he feels that 18 747s are realistic but the number of 787s will be fewer than 22:

Scott Hamilton: Boeing projects 20-40 747-8, 787 deliveries this year

Here are a couple of articles from Aspire Aviation and FleetbuzzEditorial.com following on the heels of Boeing's earnings announcement:

Aspire: Boeing posts mixed 2010 4th quarter, full year results

Saj Ahmad: Boeig 737 will be replaced not re-engined

Guy Norris: ZA005 heading to Puerto Rico

As I had mentioned earlier, ZA005 is flying to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. At the time I wasn't sure what the test objectives are for ZA005 but Guy Norris has revealed that it is heading down to the Caribbean to undertake take off and landing tests. Boeing had the aircraft in New Mexico the last couple of days doing take off and landing tests at high altitude airport in Albuquerque. The airport at Aguadilla is at sea level.

Guy also goes into a flight test fleet update and states that ZA003 should be flying very soon as well. ZA006 is undertaking ground tests and should be flying again soon though no date is evident.

Guy Norris: Tropical Test for 787

Boeing North Charleston continues to take shape

Boeing's 787 facility in North Charleston continues to take shape. to the left is a screen grab from the builder's web cam showing it's progress through this morning.

The plant is schedule to be completed by May with production on the first 787 to start in July and first delivery is scheduled for 1Q12.

787 Round Up

With Boeing's earnings call schedule for tomorrow, it is expected that there will be a lot of questions surrounding the 787 (schedule, certification, production and deliveries and on and on). Scott Hamilton has a nice update on his blog. One item he highlights is the ramp up to 10/months. He opines that Boeing will have trouble reaching that rate by the end of 2013 and feels that end of 2014 or into 2015 is more realistic.

Indeed it is looking that ramp up is going to be an issue. Boeing just started work on LN 32 (ZA235 for Air India) and LN 33 (ZA179 for JAL) won't be started until January 31st and LN 34 (ZA380, the first 787 for China Southern) will start final assembly on Feb. 14th. That's a 2/month production rate though I do expect that as the years wears on, this rate will increase (to what I don't know). You can read more of Scott Hamilton's post below:

Scott Hamilton: Odds and Ends: Big week for EADS, Boeing

In the same vein, Aviation Week reports Guy Norris and Mike Mecham wrote an extensive article regarding the 787 schedule. The main concerns remain what additional testing does the FAA require especially for ETOPs out of the box certification. The FAA has told Boeing that as it currently stands, the 787 won't get ETOPs certification until Boeing can prove the 787s reliability in light of the fire on ZA002 and the engine problems that Rolls Royce has encountered on the Trent 1000.

Aviation Week: Questions Remain About Boeing 787 Schedule

Boeing is trying to ramp up 787 test flights and currently has posted over 2600 of flight time over 850+ test flights. However, ZA003 and ZA006 have yet to resume test flights. It is unknown why they have not returned to test flights. Later this morning, ZA005 is schedule to make a test flight from Albuquerque, NM to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. We'll see if this flight actually does occur.

First production 787 makes first flight

The first production 787 and the first 787 that will be delivered to ANA later this year made its first flight yesterday. ZA102 took off a little late at 3:53 PM PT and tested the landing gear actuation among other standard test that occurs on Boeing's B-1 flight test. Boeing said that aircraft landed as planned at Paine Field.

ZA102 will be tasked to conduct function and reliability testing and ETOPs testing though it is unknown when those tests will begin.

Boeing issued a press release after ZA102 landed:

Newest 787 Dreamliner Makes First Flight

The newest 787 - designated ZA102 - made its first flight today. The airplane took off from Paine Field at 3:53 p.m. (Pacific time) and landed just over one hour later at the same location (per the plan). ZA102 will be a temporary member of the flight test fleet and will be focused on helping to demonstrate 787 extended operations (ETOPS) and complete function and reliability testing. Earlier flight test airplanes were configured more uniquely for other testing required as part of the certification program.

Matt Cawby shot video of ZA102's takeoff from Paine as well as photos of the aircraft's return.

Matt Cawby: ZA102 First Flight

Guy Norris has posted a blog report on ZA102 testing as well as the tempo of 787 flight testing:

Guy Norris: First 787 for ANA Takes Off

Boeing's Busy News Day

The folks at Boeing have been having a pretty busy news weeks. First they announce the 787 return to certification test flight on Monday then yesterday they announce the new delivery start date for the 787. Today more news from Boeing.

They sold American Airlines 2 777-300ER. I think this is the first of many sales of that airplane to American Air. Then with Chinese President Hu visiting the US today, both US and China announced that China is buying $19bn of Boeing airplanes (200 in total). Trouble is that these planes we sold and booked between 2007 and 2010. Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times called the order "political window dressing" for the US-China summit.

The 787 continues with flight tests as ZA001, ZA002, ZA003 (returning to test flights) and ZA005 are all flying today. A very welcomed addition, ZA102, is scheduled to fly at about 2:10PM today (local time) in B-1 flight from Paine Field to Mosses Lake and back to Paine. This is the first production 787 to fly and will be used to help certify the ETOPs rating for the 787 which, according to Dominic Gates, maybe running into trouble.

Part of Boeing's plan for the 787 was to have it ETOPs certified right out of the box upon delivery to customers. With the fire last November the FAA is very reluctant to give Boeing that certification unless the company can demonstrate that the airplane can operate reliably over transpacific and transatlantic routes far from airports in case of an engine failure or any other mechanical problem that may force the aircraft to land early.

That certification is important to many customers who ordered the aircraft based on its fuel efficiency and it's ability to operate long distances from airports on point to point travel. Boeing indicated in its press release that they have built in additional margin for any additional testing that maybe required to prove the reliability of the 787 on long duration flights. Dominic Gates is reporting that the additional margin (thought to be about 3 months) may not be enough and that it may lead to additional delays though Boeing and the FAA remain in discussion about the scope of additional flight testing needed in order to achieve ETOPS out of the box certification. Boeing may add another production 787 to the ETOPS test flights in order to accomplish this.

Dominic Gates: FAA could spike Boeing's new 787 delivery schedule

The new schedule only answered one question: when is Boeing going to start 787 deliveries, but there are whole host of questions that need to be asked and answered before people would feel that Boeing has a handle on the remaining issues surrounding the 787. Flightblogger has got a list started but I would like the readers to add to those questions in form of a comment left on this posting.

Flightblogger: Quick Take: More questions than answers with eighth 787 schedule

ANA the launch customer, is obviously very concerned about this and is now asking Boeing for delivery assurances for the delivery schedule as well as detailed schedule for each of its 55 787s they have on order from Boeing. So far Qatar Airways is sticking with them and Boeing will be entering talks with Korean Air about their 787 delivery schedule (as it will with the other customers obviously).

Aviation Week: ANA to demand 787 delivery assurances

Now on top of all the news out of Boeing comes on tid bit on information from Airbus. They're apparently are having problems on A350. Word from Airbus is that they're delaying the start of final assembly on the first A350 from third quarter of 2011 to the end of 2011. Amazingly it seems they think they could conduct first flight by mid 2012 even accounting for a 9 month final assembly. Something there doesn't quite add up. Airbus has delayed delivery of the first A350 to Qatar Airways from early 3Q13 to late 4Q13. That's about a 6 month slip. I fear that there will be additional delays in store for this aircraft which may amount to an additional year delay in the delivery timeline.

Flightglobal: Airbus pushes A350 final assembly back to end-2011