This is out on Bloomberg but the GAO sustains Boeing's protest on the award of the KC-X (KC-45) tanker contract to EADS/Northrup Grumman. This is not over by a long shot folks!
Here is more information: GAO says review of record led to conclude Air Force made errorsThese errors could have effected the outcome. GAO recommends that the USAF re-open the talks with the competitors. They also recommend that the Air Force reimburse Boeing forthe cost of the protest! GAO says the Air Force improperly boosted the Boeign cost estimate and they didn't asess the relative merits of the proposals and the the Air Force held misleading and unequal talks with Boeing. The Air Force violated the evaluation provisions.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Sunday, June 15, 2008
787 Dates to Watch For
Hi all fellow 787 watchers (if there is such a thing). Well a liitle while after watching Tiger make a run for the US Open title (I'll be watch the playoff tomorrow...should be real exciting), I heard of a few dates concerning the 787 program and a few milestones to watch out for now that power on has started:
6/19 - ZY998 will move from building 40-26 to 40-24 (the 767 line) and at the same time LN 2 will move up one spot in 40-26 to position 3 and LN 3 will move to position 2. Because:
6/20 - Final assembly will start on LN 4. We do know from Jon Ostrower's report that section 41 for this airplane will arrive on 6/19. Presumably the main fuselage section will arrive on or before the 19th as well.
7/20 - ZY998 will move to the fatigue tes tare for the start of the 3 year long fatigue tests. At the same time LN 1 will move out of building 40-26 and into building 40-24. My guess for the move to 40-24 is to finish up small items do more power on testing and pre ground test testing (testing flying surfaces, landing gear retractions, etc) while still making room for LN 5. This may mark the last time this airplane in on the 787 final assembly line. ZA001 being moved out of 40-26 will make room for ZA 005 the first Dreamliner to be fitted with the GEnx engines.
7/21 - ZA005 (LN 5) will start final assembly in position one and LN 2, LN 3 and LN 4 will be moved up one position respectively.
9/6 - ZA001 will be considered "shop complete" and moved out to the flight line for the start of ground tests.
Late October 2008 - First flight of ZA001, the first 787.
These are further milestones to look at in order to judge Boeing's success with the revised program schedule.
6/19 - ZY998 will move from building 40-26 to 40-24 (the 767 line) and at the same time LN 2 will move up one spot in 40-26 to position 3 and LN 3 will move to position 2. Because:
6/20 - Final assembly will start on LN 4. We do know from Jon Ostrower's report that section 41 for this airplane will arrive on 6/19. Presumably the main fuselage section will arrive on or before the 19th as well.
7/20 - ZY998 will move to the fatigue tes tare for the start of the 3 year long fatigue tests. At the same time LN 1 will move out of building 40-26 and into building 40-24. My guess for the move to 40-24 is to finish up small items do more power on testing and pre ground test testing (testing flying surfaces, landing gear retractions, etc) while still making room for LN 5. This may mark the last time this airplane in on the 787 final assembly line. ZA001 being moved out of 40-26 will make room for ZA 005 the first Dreamliner to be fitted with the GEnx engines.
7/21 - ZA005 (LN 5) will start final assembly in position one and LN 2, LN 3 and LN 4 will be moved up one position respectively.
9/6 - ZA001 will be considered "shop complete" and moved out to the flight line for the start of ground tests.
Late October 2008 - First flight of ZA001, the first 787.
These are further milestones to look at in order to judge Boeing's success with the revised program schedule.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Fleetbuzz on 787 Power on
Saj over at Fleetbuzz posted an interesting editorial on the power on of the 787. In it he says that two customers for the 787-9 have worries over the 787-9 schedule and that it may be pushed back by as much as 6 months.
Read it here.
Read it here.
Nosing Ahead
The Seattle Time and Flightblogger visited Spirit Aerosystems yesterday and provided some great information and pictures on the production of the 787 forward fuselage.
Check out their links:
787 Front Office
On Board Dreamliner 4
Seattle Times Article
Check out their links:
787 Front Office
On Board Dreamliner 4
Seattle Times Article
Thursday, June 12, 2008
787 Production moves ahead
In the last few days Boeing and it's partners have been providing the media with great access to the other partner sites in the US, specifically North Charleston where Vought builds section 47/48 (the rear fuselage) and Global Aeronautica (Boeing-Alenia venture) assembles the main fuselage; and Wichita where Spirit Aerostructures builds section 41 (forward fuselage).
Here Boeing and its partners are eager to show the progress at overcoming the production issues that have hobbled the 787 program..
For example, Jon Ostrower too this picture of the flight deck of Dreamliner 3 during the media day in Everett.
Now compare that to the picture of the flight deck of Dreamliner 4 which Jon has taken today and posted on his blog site. Section 41 for LN 4 is virtually 100% complete according to Jon and will be shipping to Everett on June 19th. This is also the same day that ZY998 the fatigue test frame is pulled out of building 40-26 at Everett and placed into 40-24 (767 line). Jon also said they Spirit is already building the section for LN 22.
This means no traveled work (or very small bits and pieces of traveled work at the most) for section 41. Now what about the other sections. Well it's expected that Global Aeronautica will be shipping 100% complete main fuselage sections starting with LN 8. I think this won't happen until September of this year. Vought, who had been the source of frustration for many at Boeing actually has com along extremely well and is expected to start shipping complete rear fusealge sections with LN 5 (the first GEnx powered 787). That probably won't happen until sometime next month. Reduction of all this traveled work is going to go a long way of validating Boeing 787 construction approach and will set them up to raise production rates. The wings are also arriving in substantially better condition though it not known how much traveled work come with them.
So starting with LN 8, it is possible that almost all if not 100% of traveled work can be eliminated.
When that happens is anyones guess though it is possible that as time goes on and there is more and more confidence in the supply chain Boeing can up the production rate in order to catch up deliveries as much as possible.
Soon after the 19th Boeing will start final assembly of LN 4 after LN 2 and LN 3 are moved down the line. Wants important at this stage is that workers currently working on LN 3 won't move with it but will stay at the first position to work on LN 4. This means that the final assembly line will start doing what it was designed to do.
Here Boeing and its partners are eager to show the progress at overcoming the production issues that have hobbled the 787 program..
For example, Jon Ostrower too this picture of the flight deck of Dreamliner 3 during the media day in Everett.
Now compare that to the picture of the flight deck of Dreamliner 4 which Jon has taken today and posted on his blog site. Section 41 for LN 4 is virtually 100% complete according to Jon and will be shipping to Everett on June 19th. This is also the same day that ZY998 the fatigue test frame is pulled out of building 40-26 at Everett and placed into 40-24 (767 line). Jon also said they Spirit is already building the section for LN 22.
This means no traveled work (or very small bits and pieces of traveled work at the most) for section 41. Now what about the other sections. Well it's expected that Global Aeronautica will be shipping 100% complete main fuselage sections starting with LN 8. I think this won't happen until September of this year. Vought, who had been the source of frustration for many at Boeing actually has com along extremely well and is expected to start shipping complete rear fusealge sections with LN 5 (the first GEnx powered 787). That probably won't happen until sometime next month. Reduction of all this traveled work is going to go a long way of validating Boeing 787 construction approach and will set them up to raise production rates. The wings are also arriving in substantially better condition though it not known how much traveled work come with them.
So starting with LN 8, it is possible that almost all if not 100% of traveled work can be eliminated.
When that happens is anyones guess though it is possible that as time goes on and there is more and more confidence in the supply chain Boeing can up the production rate in order to catch up deliveries as much as possible.
Soon after the 19th Boeing will start final assembly of LN 4 after LN 2 and LN 3 are moved down the line. Wants important at this stage is that workers currently working on LN 3 won't move with it but will stay at the first position to work on LN 4. This means that the final assembly line will start doing what it was designed to do.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
The 787 feels the power.
The 787 was powered on for the first time today, confirming earlier rumors that Boeing would start power on testing very shortly as well as speculation that Boeing would indeed meet the schedule that they had set in early April.
A source at Boeing told me that there is a temporary perimeter fence around LN 1 with a sign reading "Warning - Power On Test - Authorized Personnel Only - No Entrance - No Exceptions".
There are large flat panel displays set up on the factory floor showing a live video feed of the cockpit control panel and a Boeing employee recording video of the event.
Jon Ostrower is reporting the same thing here.
Of the milestones that Boeing had set for itself to complete by the end of June and that remains to be done is movement of of the fatigue air frame out of 40-26 in order to make room for Dreamliner 4 and the start of final assembly of Dreamliner 4. The fatigue air frame is due to be moved to the 767 line temporarily on June 19th. The rear fuselage for Dreamliner 4 was delivered last week which leaves the forward fuselage and the main fuselage the only remaining large parts to be shipped to Everett. If those remaining items occur then Boeing would hold true to the schedule it had outlined.
Note that this apparently was a partial power on and the entire aircraft is not completely powered on. Boeing hopes to have the aircraft fully powered on by the end of the month. There should be more on this story coming out of Everett soon.
A source at Boeing told me that there is a temporary perimeter fence around LN 1 with a sign reading "Warning - Power On Test - Authorized Personnel Only - No Entrance - No Exceptions".
There are large flat panel displays set up on the factory floor showing a live video feed of the cockpit control panel and a Boeing employee recording video of the event.
Jon Ostrower is reporting the same thing here.
Of the milestones that Boeing had set for itself to complete by the end of June and that remains to be done is movement of of the fatigue air frame out of 40-26 in order to make room for Dreamliner 4 and the start of final assembly of Dreamliner 4. The fatigue air frame is due to be moved to the 767 line temporarily on June 19th. The rear fuselage for Dreamliner 4 was delivered last week which leaves the forward fuselage and the main fuselage the only remaining large parts to be shipped to Everett. If those remaining items occur then Boeing would hold true to the schedule it had outlined.
Note that this apparently was a partial power on and the entire aircraft is not completely powered on. Boeing hopes to have the aircraft fully powered on by the end of the month. There should be more on this story coming out of Everett soon.
787 getting close to power on.
BREAKING: Another source says that power on will officially start tomorrow - June 12th. I am trying to get more information.
A source in the 787 program told me that there is still some good progress being made on LN 1, the first 787. Power on should still take place at the end of this month.
More significantly, ZY998, the fatigue test airframe is due to move out of the final assembly building (40-26) on June 19th and into the 767 final assembly building (40-24). It'll stay there until July 20th when it will be moved to the fatigue test site north of Boeing assembly plant.
The move on June 19th will allow Boeing to start assembly on Dreamliner #4 (LN 4).
Jon Ostrower has been in Charleston yesterday and got some great pictures and reported on the progress at Vought and Global Aeronautica. Jon also reported that the third LCF (Dreamlifter) has been certified by the FAA and will be in the US to start hauling 787 sections and parts in July.
More news to note: Boeing and Vought closed on the sale of Vought's share of Global Aeronautica to Boeing today. Boeing and Alenia are now 50-50 partners in the joint venture which assembles the main fuselage section for the 787 from the sections supplied by the three Japanese Heavies and Alenia. In being a partner with Alenia, Boeing is essentially bought inside the Global Aeronautica plant where they can have more control and can continue to look over Vought's shoulder in Charleston.
Lastly,
Dominic Gates from the Seattle Times has a great article on a media visit to Charleston which took place yesterday. Read about it here.
A source in the 787 program told me that there is still some good progress being made on LN 1, the first 787. Power on should still take place at the end of this month.
More significantly, ZY998, the fatigue test airframe is due to move out of the final assembly building (40-26) on June 19th and into the 767 final assembly building (40-24). It'll stay there until July 20th when it will be moved to the fatigue test site north of Boeing assembly plant.
The move on June 19th will allow Boeing to start assembly on Dreamliner #4 (LN 4).
Jon Ostrower has been in Charleston yesterday and got some great pictures and reported on the progress at Vought and Global Aeronautica. Jon also reported that the third LCF (Dreamlifter) has been certified by the FAA and will be in the US to start hauling 787 sections and parts in July.
More news to note: Boeing and Vought closed on the sale of Vought's share of Global Aeronautica to Boeing today. Boeing and Alenia are now 50-50 partners in the joint venture which assembles the main fuselage section for the 787 from the sections supplied by the three Japanese Heavies and Alenia. In being a partner with Alenia, Boeing is essentially bought inside the Global Aeronautica plant where they can have more control and can continue to look over Vought's shoulder in Charleston.
Lastly,
Dominic Gates from the Seattle Times has a great article on a media visit to Charleston which took place yesterday. Read about it here.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
More Progress, Part 2
Jon Ostrower, in his blog, provided more information on power on for Dreamliner 1 as well as the big news that LN 1 has it's complete flight deck including displays, the overhead panel, control yokes but doesn't have it's pilot sets yet.
Additionally, Jon reported that Boeing is targeting mid-June for power on though they are making plans for a late June power on in case they run into issues. If achieved then Boeing will be ahead of it's revised timeline.
Lastly, the Dreamlifter is on its way to Everett (presumably) flying by the way of Anchorage for a refueling stop. One should note that when the Dreamlifter has to stop for fuel in Anchorage (when flying from Nagoya to the US) or in Prestwick, Scotland (when flying from Italy to the US) then it's a good chance that it's carrying parts of the 787 to the US. In today's case, the Dreamlifter is carrying the wings for LN 4 to Everett.
Additionally, Jon reported that Boeing is targeting mid-June for power on though they are making plans for a late June power on in case they run into issues. If achieved then Boeing will be ahead of it's revised timeline.
Lastly, the Dreamlifter is on its way to Everett (presumably) flying by the way of Anchorage for a refueling stop. One should note that when the Dreamlifter has to stop for fuel in Anchorage (when flying from Nagoya to the US) or in Prestwick, Scotland (when flying from Italy to the US) then it's a good chance that it's carrying parts of the 787 to the US. In today's case, the Dreamlifter is carrying the wings for LN 4 to Everett.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
More progress
We're only 4 days into June but there are signs of continued progress on the 787.
Jon Ostrower, in his blog, reported that Saudi Arabian Airlines has committed to 12 787s in a mixture of leased and purchased aircraft. This is supposed to be a firm contract though Boeing has not said anything as of yet. See Jon's report here.
Hamilton Sundstrand, who is manufacturing the power supply units for the 787 now has delivered "everything Boeing needs to turn the power on." David Hess, the President of Hamilton Sundstrand said "All the hardware and software that Boeing needs to power on is ready and in Seattle right now."
Pat Shanahan promised David Hess a huge meal if Hamilton Sundstrand delivered the power supply units on time. I hope Pat has enough funds to feed these guys!
The power supply units and the brake monitoring system were the only worries left. Now that the power supply is no longer an impediment to power on, it is looking more and more likely that power on can be achieved by the end of this month. I have heard rumors that there is still plenty on work left to be done on Dreamliner 1 and I've heard that Boeing may not even make the June 30th deadline. There is no specifics yet but even Pat Shanahan said that it would be a horse race to get power on by June 30th.
As to the brake monitor issue. That is not needed for power on but will be absolutely necessary before Boeing takes Dreamliner 1 outside to the ramp for the start of ground and taxi tests. No word on the resolution of that issue.
Last sign of progress, one of the 747 Dreamlifters left yesterday for Nagoya, Japan. rumor has it that it is picking up the wings for Dreamliner 4 to be delivered into Everett later this week. Also later this week, ZY998, the 787 fatigue test airframe is due to be pulled out of building 40-26 at Everett and moved to the fatigue test area north of the final assembly plant. With that move, Dreamliner 2 can move up to position 3 and Dreamliner 3 can move up to position 2 to continue final assembly. This will leave the MOAB at position 1 free to accept Dreamliner 4. Currently the horizontal tail plane and the vertical tail plane (fin/rudder) are the only major parts of Dreamliner 4 in at Everett. It looks like Boeing will meet it's deadline in getting ZY998 out and starting work on Dreamliner 4 prior to June 30th.
Jon Ostrower, in his blog, reported that Saudi Arabian Airlines has committed to 12 787s in a mixture of leased and purchased aircraft. This is supposed to be a firm contract though Boeing has not said anything as of yet. See Jon's report here.
Hamilton Sundstrand, who is manufacturing the power supply units for the 787 now has delivered "everything Boeing needs to turn the power on." David Hess, the President of Hamilton Sundstrand said "All the hardware and software that Boeing needs to power on is ready and in Seattle right now."
Pat Shanahan promised David Hess a huge meal if Hamilton Sundstrand delivered the power supply units on time. I hope Pat has enough funds to feed these guys!
The power supply units and the brake monitoring system were the only worries left. Now that the power supply is no longer an impediment to power on, it is looking more and more likely that power on can be achieved by the end of this month. I have heard rumors that there is still plenty on work left to be done on Dreamliner 1 and I've heard that Boeing may not even make the June 30th deadline. There is no specifics yet but even Pat Shanahan said that it would be a horse race to get power on by June 30th.
As to the brake monitor issue. That is not needed for power on but will be absolutely necessary before Boeing takes Dreamliner 1 outside to the ramp for the start of ground and taxi tests. No word on the resolution of that issue.
Last sign of progress, one of the 747 Dreamlifters left yesterday for Nagoya, Japan. rumor has it that it is picking up the wings for Dreamliner 4 to be delivered into Everett later this week. Also later this week, ZY998, the 787 fatigue test airframe is due to be pulled out of building 40-26 at Everett and moved to the fatigue test area north of the final assembly plant. With that move, Dreamliner 2 can move up to position 3 and Dreamliner 3 can move up to position 2 to continue final assembly. This will leave the MOAB at position 1 free to accept Dreamliner 4. Currently the horizontal tail plane and the vertical tail plane (fin/rudder) are the only major parts of Dreamliner 4 in at Everett. It looks like Boeing will meet it's deadline in getting ZY998 out and starting work on Dreamliner 4 prior to June 30th.
Friday, May 9, 2008
Dreamlifter 3
Thanks to Jon Ostrower for the link to a picture of Boeing's third Dreamlifter.
You can see the picture here:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cdspit/2360566879/in/set-72157594458543804/
According to the caption, this Dreamlifter will be registered as N249BA.
Boeing has stated that they will have four Dreamlifters, modified 747-400 passenger aircraft, in order to support movement and delivery of 787 sections and wings. Currently there are two in service. Frankly two is all they need for now but with the anticipated ramp up in production they will probably need more than four depending on how fast Boeing and all the suppliers can ramp up production
They will need to ramp up as fast as they reasonably can if the average delay for getting the 787 into the hands of customers turns out to be 20 to 30 months. Whether they can catch up to production remains to be seen but judging from Airbus continuing issues with A380 production ramp up, it will not be easy if they can indeed pull it off.
You can see the picture here:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cdspit/2360566879/in/set-72157594458543804/
According to the caption, this Dreamlifter will be registered as N249BA.
Boeing has stated that they will have four Dreamlifters, modified 747-400 passenger aircraft, in order to support movement and delivery of 787 sections and wings. Currently there are two in service. Frankly two is all they need for now but with the anticipated ramp up in production they will probably need more than four depending on how fast Boeing and all the suppliers can ramp up production
They will need to ramp up as fast as they reasonably can if the average delay for getting the 787 into the hands of customers turns out to be 20 to 30 months. Whether they can catch up to production remains to be seen but judging from Airbus continuing issues with A380 production ramp up, it will not be easy if they can indeed pull it off.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Boeing starts Final Assembly on Dreamliner #3
Images courtesy of Boeing
The Boeing Press Release:
Final Assembly Begins on Fifth Boeing 787 Dreamliner
Thursday May 1, 2:21 pmET
- Third Flight-Test Airplane Loaded into First Position
EVERETT, Wash., May 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Final assembly began today
on the third flight-test airplane for the all-new Boeing (NYSE: BA - News) 787 Dreamliner.
This is the fifth Dreamliner to be loaded into the first position of the 787 production system. The static test airframe moved April 25 from the Final Assembly to its test rig in another bay of the Everett, Wash.-based factory. Both the fatigue test airframe and the second flight-test airplane have advanced to the next position in production, where assembly and systems installation work continues.
"We are receiving assemblies that are much more complete," said Jack Jones, vice president of 787 Final Assembly and Change Incorporation. Jones replaces Steve Westby, who retired from Boeing yesterday after a 31-year career. "The second flight-test airplane had a 50 percent reduction in the amount of incomplete work as compared to the first airplane. 'Traveled work' on this airplane is 65 percent less than on the first."
After assembly is complete, this airplane will be fitted with an interior as part of the comprehensive flight-test program and certification process. "When that happens this summer, it will be the first time we'll see the 787 in what is close to a final delivery configuration," Jones said.
The first airplane to fly is on track for "power on" in June.
Around the world, 25 airplanes are in various stages of production. This number includes the static and fatigue airframes, which will not be delivered to customers. Since its launch in April 2004 the 787 Dreamliner has amassed nearly 900 firm orders valued at $151 billion from 58 airlines.Interestingly on April 9th Boeing said they expected that the amount of traveled work on airplane #3 will be reduced by 75% and in today's press release they state that is isdown by 65%. Perhaps the 75% was an estimate but it doesn't help their credibility problems. Boeing has no trouble designing, testing and producing great airplanes. Their problem is on of credibility. They are still sticking with power on for airplane #1 by June 30th and it'll be of great interest if they make it.
As stated before, when they power on the aircraft a significant amount of risk would have been eliminated and the path for first flight will be a little bit more clear.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
787 Back on Track?
While it is way too soon to say that the 787 program is back on track, recent milestones seem to indicate that Boeing is getting the 787 house (and assembly line) back in order. In the conference call on April 9th, Pat Shanahan had outlined goals or milestones for the 787 program for the remainder of the 2nd quarter of 2008. These include:
* Static airplane will move out of the factory at the end of April to make room for the third flying airplane. Parts for airplane 3 will arrive in Everett by the end of April
* Power on date moved to June 2008* Fatigue airplane will move to its test stand in June shortly followed by parts for airplane #4 to enter final assembly in June* By June 30th will have static and fatigue frames out at their test sites, final assembly begun on airplanes 3 and 4 in Everett, completing systems hardware airworthiness qualifications, finishing safety of flight testing for system hardware and software integration, and receiving flight test systems hardware.
From recent flight made by the LCF and the recent movement of the static test airframe from building 40-26 to 40-23 for the start of static tests, it looks like Boeing is on its way to accomplishing the first goal listed. Parts for Airplane 3 are in Everett and the static frame has been moved out of the 787 final assembly hall. Additionally the fatigue air frame has moved to the third assembly position and LN 2 has moved to the 2nd assembly position thus clearing the way for LN 3 to start final assembly.
While there is some assembly yet to be done on the static airplane, that will be done concurrently with the setup for the static tests. Those tests are expected to start this summer.
Boeing now has two months to get airplane 1 ready for power on and ground testing as well as start assembly of airplane 4 and all the while there are still lingering doubts about the program and if Boeing has been conservative enough with its schedule. As many analysts (and Boeing itself) have said, once they’ve powered on airplane 1 then a significant amount of risk would have been retired and the path should be clear (assuming no major issues that are uncovered during ground testing) to first flight. This is the key metric to watch for in the short term.
One thing that is working in Boeing’s favor (a lesson learned from the A380 delays) is that they and their risk sharing partners took advantage of the delays to wring out the systems in the test labs in Seattle, reduce the travel work sent by the suppliers, and maturing the systems hardware and software (mainly the flight control software). This will go a long way in having a mature airplane at first flight as well as make progress on non-flight testing certification tests and deliverables for the FAA/EASA certification.
Now one month does not a trend make and the real indication of the health of the program will be realized on June 30th. If Boeing provides customers, analysts and shareholders with short term goals for the quarter and it achieves those goals then Boeing management will have come a long way to repairing their image and reputation.
Now I think Boeing was a little too conservative in their time line and they could perhaps achieve first flight earlier. I do think that power on will be achieved by June 30th and that power on testing as well as ground testing and taxi test could take two months. That takes you to August 30th. Boeing can then have first flight in early September...late in the third quarter. Now assuming a 10 month flight testing program and certification brings the time to early July 2009…2nd quarter of 2009 for first delivery and EIS as opposed to 3rd quarter 2009. Is this achievable? Sure but at the same time Boeing has to mature the systems with aggressive testing and carefully manage the production ramp up.
Boeing needs to give Wall Street, customers, and shareholders detailed quarterly goals and milestones that they need to meet in order for the confidence to be rebuilt in the company and in the program. These goals and milestones shouldn’t be for just Boeing itself but also for the partners and suppliers. Already there are reports that Vought will be starting to ship fully stuffed rear fuselages (section 47/48) sometime between June and September (more likely September and with that section will be from Dreamliner #6). Certainly with Boeing buying out Vought’s share of Global Aeronautica, it’ll have more control over what happens there but will allow Boeing to continuously look over Vought’s shoulder.
Going Forward
While in the short term Boeing has made some strides to recovery, there are risks that remain as well as questions about the 787.
Flight Testing and Certification – After power on is accomplished Boeing needs to hope for a relatively smooth flight tests of the airplane if they are to keep to schedule. What will also be critical is Boeing’s change incorporation program. When issues crop up during testing the changes and fixes must be incorporated back from the planes that were built all the way back through the supply chain to the planes that are just starting the production process. How Boeing and the supply base handle all that is going to remain critical to getting production moving. For that reason Boeing won’t be producing 787s in any great numbers until almost all the test flights and certification paperwork is done. Rumors were going around that the FAA is going to force Boeing to do more certification work then previously agreed and that it would mean that EIS wouldn’t occur until 2010. The German magazine that reported this said that Boeing would announce a fourth delay due to the extra certification work in mid May. Both the FAA and Boeing denied the story and there hasn’t been any further news on that. Still issues could come up during flight testing that might force the FAA to ask Boeing to do further modifications and tests to give them satisfaction. At least worries of cold soak tests are put to rest.
Production – With 25 planned deliveries in 2009 Boeing’s big worry after flight testing is ramping up production and catching up with deliveries. Pre-delay, Boeing was planning to deliver 112 787s between May 2008 and December 2009. Now they’re planning on only 25. Assuming that they stay on that schedule they will be behind by 87 airplanes. That’s roughly 4 airplanes per month. Boeing needs to find someway of making up those 87 deliveries. Boeing is starting to plan out a gradual production increase to approximately 10/month by 2012 but how that will resolve the backlog is unclear. Production is also key for future orders as Boeing’s salespeople need to give a time frame to potential (and current customers) about when they can expect their airplanes given these delays. That’s going to be a factor of planned production rates as well as what the suppliers can reasonably be expected to produce.
Weight – Before the delays took the stage as the main issue, the 787s 2% weight gain (about 5000 lbs.). We have not had an update on this issue though previously Boeing said that they expect that the 787 will meet its weight goals by airplane #7. Whether that is still going to be achieved is unclear and good represent risk on only to the -8 but also to the other variants. Already there have been reports that the -9 variant is also overweight and that the fix to the center wing box added some (though negligible) weight gain. Through static, fatigue and flight testing Boeing can identify over engineered structural parts and target them for weight savings. What remains to be seen is how fast those changes can be incorporated into all the produced airplanes if at all. The delay may make it hard for Boeing to achieve the target weight for airplane # 7.
Future Variants – Boeing has pushed back the service entry for the larger -9 variant to 2012, a two year delay and pushed the -3 to an undetermined sate beyond that. Clearly Boeing is looking to make up time to most customers by delivering as many of the -8 as possible (to date they have 646 -8 orders, 207 -9 orders and 43 -3 orders). Also to be determined is the specs and EIS date for the -10. Boeing has put this off for several reasons: 1) They want to know what they’re competing with in terms of the A350-900 and 2) They need to get flight test data in order to see to help design the -10. When they offer the -10 Boeing can be well poised for the A340/777-200ER replacement market. In my opinion an EIS for the -10 cannot be reasonably expected before 2014 at the earliest.
On April 9th Boeing execs gave us details of the delay as well as milestones that they have set of themselves and the program. One thing that was noticeably different was the greater detail this time around. They gave goals that they intend to accomplish between April 9th and June 30th and it would be expected that around early July they will probably give goals that they intend to accomplish for the 3rd quarter of 2008 as well as an overview of what they did and did not accomplish in the 2nd quarter. This transparency goes a long way starting the rebuild confidence in the program and management. It’s not their yet but the fact that they have already accomplished some of the goals that they laid out in the April 9th conference call gives them a foundation to work on.
* Static airplane will move out of the factory at the end of April to make room for the third flying airplane. Parts for airplane 3 will arrive in Everett by the end of April
* Power on date moved to June 2008* Fatigue airplane will move to its test stand in June shortly followed by parts for airplane #4 to enter final assembly in June* By June 30th will have static and fatigue frames out at their test sites, final assembly begun on airplanes 3 and 4 in Everett, completing systems hardware airworthiness qualifications, finishing safety of flight testing for system hardware and software integration, and receiving flight test systems hardware.
From recent flight made by the LCF and the recent movement of the static test airframe from building 40-26 to 40-23 for the start of static tests, it looks like Boeing is on its way to accomplishing the first goal listed. Parts for Airplane 3 are in Everett and the static frame has been moved out of the 787 final assembly hall. Additionally the fatigue air frame has moved to the third assembly position and LN 2 has moved to the 2nd assembly position thus clearing the way for LN 3 to start final assembly.
While there is some assembly yet to be done on the static airplane, that will be done concurrently with the setup for the static tests. Those tests are expected to start this summer.
Boeing now has two months to get airplane 1 ready for power on and ground testing as well as start assembly of airplane 4 and all the while there are still lingering doubts about the program and if Boeing has been conservative enough with its schedule. As many analysts (and Boeing itself) have said, once they’ve powered on airplane 1 then a significant amount of risk would have been retired and the path should be clear (assuming no major issues that are uncovered during ground testing) to first flight. This is the key metric to watch for in the short term.
One thing that is working in Boeing’s favor (a lesson learned from the A380 delays) is that they and their risk sharing partners took advantage of the delays to wring out the systems in the test labs in Seattle, reduce the travel work sent by the suppliers, and maturing the systems hardware and software (mainly the flight control software). This will go a long way in having a mature airplane at first flight as well as make progress on non-flight testing certification tests and deliverables for the FAA/EASA certification.
Now one month does not a trend make and the real indication of the health of the program will be realized on June 30th. If Boeing provides customers, analysts and shareholders with short term goals for the quarter and it achieves those goals then Boeing management will have come a long way to repairing their image and reputation.
Now I think Boeing was a little too conservative in their time line and they could perhaps achieve first flight earlier. I do think that power on will be achieved by June 30th and that power on testing as well as ground testing and taxi test could take two months. That takes you to August 30th. Boeing can then have first flight in early September...late in the third quarter. Now assuming a 10 month flight testing program and certification brings the time to early July 2009…2nd quarter of 2009 for first delivery and EIS as opposed to 3rd quarter 2009. Is this achievable? Sure but at the same time Boeing has to mature the systems with aggressive testing and carefully manage the production ramp up.
Boeing needs to give Wall Street, customers, and shareholders detailed quarterly goals and milestones that they need to meet in order for the confidence to be rebuilt in the company and in the program. These goals and milestones shouldn’t be for just Boeing itself but also for the partners and suppliers. Already there are reports that Vought will be starting to ship fully stuffed rear fuselages (section 47/48) sometime between June and September (more likely September and with that section will be from Dreamliner #6). Certainly with Boeing buying out Vought’s share of Global Aeronautica, it’ll have more control over what happens there but will allow Boeing to continuously look over Vought’s shoulder.
Going Forward
While in the short term Boeing has made some strides to recovery, there are risks that remain as well as questions about the 787.
Flight Testing and Certification – After power on is accomplished Boeing needs to hope for a relatively smooth flight tests of the airplane if they are to keep to schedule. What will also be critical is Boeing’s change incorporation program. When issues crop up during testing the changes and fixes must be incorporated back from the planes that were built all the way back through the supply chain to the planes that are just starting the production process. How Boeing and the supply base handle all that is going to remain critical to getting production moving. For that reason Boeing won’t be producing 787s in any great numbers until almost all the test flights and certification paperwork is done. Rumors were going around that the FAA is going to force Boeing to do more certification work then previously agreed and that it would mean that EIS wouldn’t occur until 2010. The German magazine that reported this said that Boeing would announce a fourth delay due to the extra certification work in mid May. Both the FAA and Boeing denied the story and there hasn’t been any further news on that. Still issues could come up during flight testing that might force the FAA to ask Boeing to do further modifications and tests to give them satisfaction. At least worries of cold soak tests are put to rest.
Production – With 25 planned deliveries in 2009 Boeing’s big worry after flight testing is ramping up production and catching up with deliveries. Pre-delay, Boeing was planning to deliver 112 787s between May 2008 and December 2009. Now they’re planning on only 25. Assuming that they stay on that schedule they will be behind by 87 airplanes. That’s roughly 4 airplanes per month. Boeing needs to find someway of making up those 87 deliveries. Boeing is starting to plan out a gradual production increase to approximately 10/month by 2012 but how that will resolve the backlog is unclear. Production is also key for future orders as Boeing’s salespeople need to give a time frame to potential (and current customers) about when they can expect their airplanes given these delays. That’s going to be a factor of planned production rates as well as what the suppliers can reasonably be expected to produce.
Weight – Before the delays took the stage as the main issue, the 787s 2% weight gain (about 5000 lbs.). We have not had an update on this issue though previously Boeing said that they expect that the 787 will meet its weight goals by airplane #7. Whether that is still going to be achieved is unclear and good represent risk on only to the -8 but also to the other variants. Already there have been reports that the -9 variant is also overweight and that the fix to the center wing box added some (though negligible) weight gain. Through static, fatigue and flight testing Boeing can identify over engineered structural parts and target them for weight savings. What remains to be seen is how fast those changes can be incorporated into all the produced airplanes if at all. The delay may make it hard for Boeing to achieve the target weight for airplane # 7.
Future Variants – Boeing has pushed back the service entry for the larger -9 variant to 2012, a two year delay and pushed the -3 to an undetermined sate beyond that. Clearly Boeing is looking to make up time to most customers by delivering as many of the -8 as possible (to date they have 646 -8 orders, 207 -9 orders and 43 -3 orders). Also to be determined is the specs and EIS date for the -10. Boeing has put this off for several reasons: 1) They want to know what they’re competing with in terms of the A350-900 and 2) They need to get flight test data in order to see to help design the -10. When they offer the -10 Boeing can be well poised for the A340/777-200ER replacement market. In my opinion an EIS for the -10 cannot be reasonably expected before 2014 at the earliest.
On April 9th Boeing execs gave us details of the delay as well as milestones that they have set of themselves and the program. One thing that was noticeably different was the greater detail this time around. They gave goals that they intend to accomplish between April 9th and June 30th and it would be expected that around early July they will probably give goals that they intend to accomplish for the 3rd quarter of 2008 as well as an overview of what they did and did not accomplish in the 2nd quarter. This transparency goes a long way starting the rebuild confidence in the program and management. It’s not their yet but the fact that they have already accomplished some of the goals that they laid out in the April 9th conference call gives them a foundation to work on.
Welcome
Hello All!
Welcome to my just another aviation blog! Well you all are proably thinking oh not another one. Well I'll try and be different here if I can. I'll need your help in figuring out the direction that it should go to keep interest alive but for now I'm going to bloging about All Things 787 as in the Boeing 787.
That's not to say that this blog will focus on the 787, commercial aviation or just aviation but I plan on talking about all of the aerospace industry and the goings on. So together I hope we can educate one another and have a little bit of fun.
Discussions are welcome and even disagreements with anything I or anyone else has to say but let's keep it civil and attack the idea and not the person.
Lastly, I'm an aviation enthusiast thus I don't work in the industry though I wish I did especially considering that my current job is analyzing and structuring mortgage securities. I've been in this industry for over 15 years but somehow I'm surviving in it! At this point if there are any people who feel that my talents are being wasted in the current position and feel that they can use my talents, skills and knowledge in the aviation industry, send me an email!
Welcome to my just another aviation blog! Well you all are proably thinking oh not another one. Well I'll try and be different here if I can. I'll need your help in figuring out the direction that it should go to keep interest alive but for now I'm going to bloging about All Things 787 as in the Boeing 787.
That's not to say that this blog will focus on the 787, commercial aviation or just aviation but I plan on talking about all of the aerospace industry and the goings on. So together I hope we can educate one another and have a little bit of fun.
Discussions are welcome and even disagreements with anything I or anyone else has to say but let's keep it civil and attack the idea and not the person.
Lastly, I'm an aviation enthusiast thus I don't work in the industry though I wish I did especially considering that my current job is analyzing and structuring mortgage securities. I've been in this industry for over 15 years but somehow I'm surviving in it! At this point if there are any people who feel that my talents are being wasted in the current position and feel that they can use my talents, skills and knowledge in the aviation industry, send me an email!
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