Friday, March 15, 2019

787 and 737 MAX, A Tale of Two Groundings

The two horrible 737 MAX 8 accidents within 6 months of each other and under similar if not outright identical circumstances brings to mind the grounding of the 787s 6 years ago that were prompted by LION batteries that are used by that aircraft.  In each case there are similarities but also notable differences in the issues and how the different parties reacted to the safety of flight issues that were causes for both groundings.

In order to properly understand the context of these issues we should review what happened in January 2013.  In a matter of one week, multiple 787-8 belonging to Japanese carriers, Japan Airlines and ANA experienced electrical fires that were traced to the lithium ion (LION) batteries that were carried in the equipment bay of the 787s and used to supply internal power to the aircraft.  January 7 the first incident occurred on a JAL 787-8 that had just landed at Boston's Logan Airport.  Soon after the passengers and crew had deplaned, a maintenance worker noticed a burning smell. Airport fire rescue put out a fire that had started when the LION battery exploded in the aft electrical bay.

8 days later on January 15, 2013 an ANA 787-8 was flying a domestic route when smoke had entered the cabin.  The 787 made an emergency landing in Takamatsu, Japan where the passengers and crewed evacuated the airplane using the emergency slides.  After this incident, ANA promptly grounded all its 787s (which numbered 17 at the time).  One day later on January 16th, the FAA ordered the grounding of all US based 787s which, at that time, numbered 6 all owned by United Airlines.  However, other countries took the cue from the FAA and a worldwide grounding was in effect as aviation regulators took similar actions that the FAA had implemented.

It would be over four months before the FAA certified a containment system for these batteries that would protect the aircraft in the case of another battery fire. The airplanes returned to service once the FAA approved containment system was retrofitted in in service aircraft over the course of several months starting in late April, 2013.

Currently we don't have a definitive cause for the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 disasters though it appears, from initial reports, that a flight control system new to the 737 and known as the maneuvering characteristics augmentation system (MCAS) is getting faulty angle of attack information from external sensors and forcing the aircraft into a nose down attitude.  This is one possible factor in the two crashes.  The other factor is flight crew training on the new system as well as the documentation in the flight manuals of this system and how to respond appropriately to any emergencies caused by MCAS.

Soon after the Ethiopian crash on March 10th and over the next 2 days, aviation regulators all over the wold started grounding the 737 MAX 8 but the FAA did not act and this is where bizarre things start to happen.  Take for instance that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg called the President to reiterate that the 737 MAX is safe to fly.  As more and more aviation safety officials and airlines around the world ground the airplane the FAA still insisted that the airplane is safe to fly.  This goes one for two and half days until finally the President (not the FAA) announces the grounding of the 737 MAX 8 and 737 MAX 9.   The announcement didn't come from the FAA, it came from the President which is extremely unusual and, quite frankly, disturbing.  Equally disturbing is the lack of leadership in the aftermath of these crashes from the FAA unlike the response it demonstrated with the 787 battery issue.  The United States was the last to ground the 737 MAX 8 (and MAX 9) after data of both crashes showed a lot of similarities.

Lastly it appears that Boeing has been working on a software fix for MCAS since the Lion Air crash but the long government shutdown in December/January delayed the implementation of testing and certification of the fix.  It's unknown what the pre-shutdown plan for testing and certification was or if the shutdown had not occurred if the fix would have been rolled out in time to prevent the Ethiopian crash.

With the 787 battery issue in 2013, the FAA had lead from the get go thus reassuring airlines and their customer that they took safety of flight issues seriously.  However, the FAA in 2019 abdicated its fiduciary responsibilities by not grounding the 737 MAX after the Ethiopian crash and thus leaving it to aviation safety regulators outside of the US to ensure safety of flight issues with the 737 are addressed.  The FAA was had to dragged into the grounding kicking and screaming after over 300 people had died.  The FAA and Boeing need to do more to ensure that the commercial aircraft used world wide are free from safety of flight issues if they want to redeem their reputation.  Outside individuals who are not involved with aviation safety and implementation of the regulations need to keep quiet and let the professionals decide what is safe and what isn't.

15 comments:

  1. The Max crash is the tip of the wet blanket covering the Boeing problem. Profit over safety (POS) management style. Due investigative process must have precedence over making money for stockholders.

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  2. No matter how we see this.
    The ishue is that there is not enough competition.
    2 is to little (and sorry to say They have spit up in the Long haul market "read"we don't seat same as you.
    The future is 737max7-8-9-10
    And a320neo

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  3. Unfortunately, it's not just Boeing:

    https://www.registerguard.com/opinion/20190314/gaillard-airline-pilots-need-complete-transparency

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  4. Thank you for an honest assessment. Perhaps Boeing's lobbying extends to the pockets of the FAA in addition to the federal government.

    Government acceptance and the normalization of amoral behavior by massive corporations is crippling our country. Very disturbing.

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  5. I don't think more competition is the answer as at the end of the day the industry is a job producer which makes it automatically a political issue. If there was a worldwide aviation body to certify planes then there would be one standard regardless of the manufacturer and the country of origin. The issue here is that Boeing was already behind the NEO and the C-Series. They rushed to get the plane to market and did so earlier than they had promised as Southwest got their first planes and left them grounded until enough older jets left the fleet to warrant the need (which would have been right around the time Boeing originally promised the plane). Could there have been more thorough testing? Absoloutly. Is the onus on Boeing and the FAA to prove that not only was not grounding the plane after the crashes a decision based on risk and not politics? Absoloutly. Do Boeing and the FAA have to prove that there was nothing fishy with the certification process? Absoloutly.

    I'm by no means an expert, but, do I think there is something actually wrong with the plane? No. To me it sounds like a combination of faulty sensors throwing off the system and a poor training plan by Boeing and by extension the airlines of how to override the system. Could there be an issue with the software where the pilot cannot effectively shut off the system if they have determined they are not in fact in a stall and leave it off until the plan is safely on the ground to be tested? Yes.

    Lots of questions to be answered, but I fail to believe that a plane as safe as the 737 with minor adjustments to engine placement can go from being one of the safest planes in the world to one of the most dangerous.

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  6. Tarek,

    I agree with you on this with the caveat that Boeing to counter the new variables with the thrust and center of gravity taking away the ability of the pilots to actually aviate with the MCAS engaging with the autopilot turned off. Audibles with the ability to shut down the MCAS for longer than 5 seconds before it reengages seems paramount. If there is a stall concern the stick shaker needs to let the pilots make the adjustment not them fighting with a jack screw.
    I fly Southwest because I like the 737 series and would fly the Max with pilots who understand the limitations this software issue.

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  7. Is there any place to track how many KC-46A planes have been built, how many have been delivered and when?
    I know this is the defense side but I cannot find this information anywhere.

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  8. Unknown, this link will do it: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xPZP2NmigprVBd5dklYcFOGraAn4C8Z4W0z2TPD-eD0/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=2121076296

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  9. LN 824 Royal Air Maoc is in delivered status (on 26th).
    https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/at8793
    https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/Boeing/787/CN-RGX-Royal-Air-Maroc/xOnKsdDE

    Almost 10 years since my first connection to this blog,
    close to daily check posts and tables,
    and more than 800 deliveries
    but this is still my very first post :
    time to say BIG THANK YOU and BRAVO URESH !

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  10. Hi Uresh,
    Noted an error on your sheets mate. Line number 835 should have the serial number 63321

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  11. Hello Uresh,

    There seems to be some conflicted information about LN 824, Royal Air Maroc. Several sites included FlightRadar24 show delivery completed on March 26, but you still show it Ready for Delivery. Is there additional information?

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  12. I haven’t gotten around to it

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  13. Hi Uresh

    One minor amendment for your spreadsheets. L/n 821 has been registered and painted UK78704 (note there is no "-" in these registrations) rather than the predicted UK78705.

    Keep up the good work

    Paul

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  14. There appears to be an error in your Delivered 787 List. Line number 800 is listed as the 42nd delivery to United Airlines, and the next delivery to United is listed as the 44th delivery. Am I missing something? If there is a correction, don't bother to display this message. Thanks for your hard work keeping up this blog. Boeing should hire you, since you do a much better job of keeping people informed than they do.

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