Ok so I'm in the midst of having an email conversation with Saj Ahmad over at Strategic Aero about 787 deliveries when I realize (the light bulb does go off sometimes) that there is another rational for believing that Boeing can reach 50 787 deliveries this year. It all has to do with what we know about deliveries in January 2013.
We do know that Thomson Airways is to get its first 787 ZA317 (LN92) in January 2013. We can assume that Boeing will deliver airplanes 66 to let say 90 by December 2012 (I'm assuming 2013 deliveries will start with LN 91). That is 25 airframes right there that will go from assembly line to flight line, that is 25 787s that will not have to spend time in change incorporation. Boeing has already delivered 8 787s this year. So we are already at 33 787s for 2012 and we have not even touched the undelivered 787s that are sitting around Paine Field trying to finish change incorporation.
So we do know that of those 48 remaining 787s that have yet to finish assembly and change incorporation are airplanes for Air India, Qatar Airways, LAN, ANA, JAL, LOT, China Southern, Royal Air Maroc, Ethiopian Airlines and United. These airplanes will receive at least one if not more of the 787s this year that will be undergoing change incorporation. That is at least 10 787 deliveries from the 787 inventory at Paine. We do know that Air India, Qatar, ANA and United will receive more than 1 but we can also add JAL and China Southern to that list (all these come from the LN 7 to LN 65 lot of 787s). That's 6 more 787s for total of 16 coming from 787 WIP. We also know that Air India is to receive 4 787s this year from the Charleston plant so we should add three more to the total and that gets you 19 787 deliveries from the pre-LN 66 lot of airplanes. Thus the math is as follows:
8 - 787 delivered so far
25 - delivery of LN 66 to LN 90 to be made in 2012
19 - delivery of 787 WIP (defined as LN 7 to LN 65 that have not yet been delivered, this is currently a total of 48 airframes).
8+25+19 = 52.
Simple, isn't it? Now we can probably added a few more for carriers like RAM, LAN, Air India, China Southern, United, Ethiopian and ANA for this year but I am unsure about how far they have to go for change incorporation. The upshot is that Boeing is very conservative with their 787 delivery numbers for 2012.
My impression was that Boeing has always been rather optimistic with their estimates for deadlines and deliveries. But they do seem to have turned the corner and I hope you are right.
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ReplyDeleteI think you are right on target with your delivery projections. I have always thought that the Boeing guidance of between 70 and 85 combined 747 and 787 might have been better stated as between 30 and 35 747 and 35 and 55 787.
ReplyDeleteI think Boeing has finally figured out that customers and the stock market will penalize you very little for under promising and over delivering, but to over promise and under deliver is a complete disaster.
By your calculations that would leave 29 787 with change incorporation work for 2013 and beyond. As I remember Booeung had said it would take about 2 years to get through all of the aircraft that would need change incorporation. That would put the rate of delivery of aircraft that need change incorporation at a steady 2-1/3 aircraft per month. Again matching up with your calculations.
Lets hop that Boeing is over the hump. I cant wait to fly on a 787!
Matt Cawby just published a picture of ANA LN#56 with engines installed.
ReplyDeleteTo add to your argument:
ReplyDelete- ANA at least 3 by Jul (incl. at least 1 in May)
- JAL 2 in Aug, 1 in Oct, 1 in Nov
- Air India at least 3 by Jul (incl. at least 1 in May)
- Qatar 5 by Dec
- LAN 1 in Aug, 1 in Oct
- United 5 by Dec
That's 21 units, 19 of which are in re-work as we speak (1 JAL + 1 Qatar not built yet) and doesn't include frames for Ethiopian, China Southern, LOT, RAM or Hainan.
Be mindful that some of the deliveries you outlined above may in fact come from the the lot that will not have to go through change incorporation some of which I don't have listed in my spreadsheet.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree with your calculation. I posted something like this on here a will ago but then I only came to 45 not 52. Any news about the startup of the surgeline? The suppliers will need to beef up production to fill an extra 4 production positions. Will any of the surge line planes be delivered this year? Or will the startup be as slow as in CHS?
ReplyDeleteTo be able to deliver l’n 92 in Jan 2013 the need to up the rate because on an 3,5 rate the will only finish building it somewhere in Jan and delivery in feb.
Also I noticed that JA810A had made an appearance on the flight line with engines on and fully painted. Is that ZA507/LN48?
Thanks for the update!
A couple of points:
ReplyDeleteIt's probably better to think of the CHS-built aircraft that need rework as their own separate category. How fast those four planes get done doesn't really have much impact on 787 refurbishment at Everett.
The total number of Everett-built 787 going to airlines that need change incorporation is 55. Of those 11 have been delivered, three are on the flight line and one is at Lackland. So at this point, there are 40 that still need to go through the EMC. If they churn out 2 a month, that should take 20 months, or until about January 2014. At three a month, they'd be done in June or July of next year.
I suspect the pace is above two a month but less than three a month. Also, expect it to increase somewhat over time from learning curve effects.
Matt Cawby has some interesting new photos up. First of all, the unpainted 787 with engines and a blue rudder that on April 23 was at the fuel dock waiting to be painted is now out of the paint hanger and has a JA810A registration. So probably LN 48.
The 787 that Matt showed being fitted with GE engines on April 23 in EMC Bay 3 is still there. He has a better picture out it now. It has an off-white or grey rudder. Any ideas?
In EMC Bay 2 on Aprl 23 and now is a JAL aircraft, which must be LN 27.
Currently in Bay 1 is an ANA frame with only the tail and rudder painted. It has engines. The painting configuration and engines fitted matches LN 7 when we last saw it back in April. Not sure if any other ANA frames just had the tail painted.
Hi Michael,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on LN 48 probably being JA810A and getting prepared for delivery though I'm trying to get confirmation on this. I thought LN7 was outside with it's engines attached, did they bring it back inside? I'm wondering if it could also be LN 12 (the ANA 787 with only the rudder painted)? The one with the unpainted rudder is amystery though I'm wondering if it could be one of the early 787s for LAN.
With regards to the pace of change incorporation, I think it should be noted that late build 787s (LN 30 to LN 65) probably won't have as much work needed to be done and those will probably come out faster. I do think that these palnes will be delivered sooner (and already have) and will constiute the majority of rewored airplanes that Boeing will deliver this year. The early builds will take longer (LN 7 to LN 29). Also it is my understanding that the CHS built 787s won't have that much re-work done. LN 46 has less than 100 jobs left when it was roled out and it should fly in about a week and half to two and half weeks from now. Thus any further 787s coming throuh CHS won't have that much rework needed and should come through the final assembly process more or less ready to start pre-delivery ground and flight tests.
Uresh,
ReplyDeleteOn the aircraft in Bay 1 -- I haven't kept track of how all the stored ANA 787s are painted, but if there are only two with the tail painted and the body white, then it's extremely likely that it's LN 7 in Bay 1. If you look at Matt Cawby's April 30 big flight line photo, an ANA 787 with only the tail painted, no engines, and taped windows is in stall 106. Presumably that would be LN 12. I doubt they got it to the point the aircraft is at in Bay 1 in a week.
The Bay 3 mystery aircraft: If Matt's correct that GE engines are fitted, then it can't be for LAN as LAN ordered RR. A clue is in Matt's May 4 flight line shot -- another 787 with a gray rudder (stall 107). Since we now have two of these, I'd have to suppose these are for Qatar.
Hi Michael, I think you might be right on the Qatar Airways especially as it supposed to be delivered to them next month. I have LN 12 listed as being inside EMC so it could either LN 7 or LN 12. I'm trying to find out.
ReplyDeleteThe CHS planes will be either painted or not to know where they are in the process. The process seems to be that they will come out of the factory, 2 weeks of ground test and flight test (only 1 or 2) fly to AMA for painting then back to CHS for interiors, final test flights and delivery.
ReplyDeleteThis article says Air India is supposed to recieve "about 8" 787 by the end of the year.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/cuckoopaul/2012/05/09/pilots-sickout-reflects-deep-division-in-air-india/
To me that souns like 4 from Charleston, LN #29, LN #35 which both must be pretty close to ready, and 2 more.